10
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 10 ($USOIL $WTI Oil, $DXY Dollar, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $NATGAS … more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 10, 2016.

Election is Over!

Sorry, no premarket yesterday – but we did bank in the room and the alerts have been dead on.

Futures were strong as were/are world markets.

A few big things today… obvious lift in $SPY (and we’re banking on $XIV), my $THC swing I may exit soon, $HTZ should of held (it was a decent call), BASE METALS as I’ve posted on my feed will be strong mid term with infrastructure spending (Trump) and coal will be strong mid term likely.Copper is flying and shippers may take off here. Oh, and Natural Gas looks like it’s getting close to a buy zone. And as alerted tech and bio. Also, I missed the $NIKKEI snapback trade (which I wanted to catch just forgot – and yup it snapped back)

Many sectors are getting lift as we expected so it is important to stay in the zone – focus – nimble. Oil should be the story soon being it is bouncing under ceiling resistance on 200 on the 1 hr and bouncing up off 50 on the 1 hr.

 

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra)

I do trade them at times, but I avoid risk FYI. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Pre Market Watchlist: $TRP, $THC, $TPL, $WFT, $JJC #Copper, $AUMN, and more in chat b4 open.

If #Silver gets up over resistance and #Gold gets flight $AUMN can double fast.

$THX is up 6% or so in pre-market – so this swing is doing ok so far – I may exit this morning though.

$WFT I am watching for follow-thru.

Regular Watchlist: $GLD, $GDX, $SLV, FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), $SPY, $DXY, $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV), more to come in trading room before market open.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX)

Well I nailed that call… what can I say. We’re going to new highs. Next eight calendar days are critical. Stay awake.

Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

From Tuesday….

Some obvious plays here… if Hillary gets last minute bad news I’l scalp $TVIX or $UVXY. If election goes well for her the obviously $XIV would be a decent scalp or swing. If THE Donald wins… watch out lol… volatilty. But either way I think the market gets a lift (if Donald wins market likely does a mini Brexit then lifts). I win every-time here (seriously almost). Brexit, last Jan, last Sept and Oil have been huge bonuses to my accts in addition to compound trading program – so I see the election as a bonus.

So the $VIX is right at that diagonal trendline support – but you have to be careful putting too much consideration in to diagonal supports to beging with – but even moreso with the $VIX (it isn’t like a diagonal trendline with most equities).
$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

I missed the move in the Peso… had it lined up but you can’t get every play… WE SHOULD WATCH IT THOUGH for a bit of a snapback next week perhaps.

The US Dollar index is the only one I’m really watching – if it gets flight there’s a good play in $TZA. But other than that I’m not interested in playing China or Britain or any other currency related trades.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

The actual charting with the $DXY US Dollar isn’t broken at all… if you chekc my Twitter feed long before it got lift here I was telling folks what the algorithmic symmetry was saying… but many didn’t listen. This was an easy set-up IMO.

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI $XOP #OOTT #Algo)

Get your charting up and watch this close for a break-out. They have meetings coming up too.

Watch your 200 day on the 1 hour for resistance and 50 day on the 1 hour for support (and more recently this morning off the 100 for support) – either breach and that’s a tell. If I miss it in the room send me a DM on twitter or an email to [email protected]. Also watch the blue diagonal trendlines on the chart for resistance and support. And the purple horizontal supports and resistance. If crude gets above the 200 Day on the 1 hour and above the blue trendline above it and the purple resistance in that same area then it’s in break-out mode. DONT MISS IT AND DONT LET ME MISS IT LOL.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Obviously all base metals will be bullish, however, $GOLD is running in to some chart resistance that is wise to consider.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

Pay attention to that 17.92 resistance – if #Silver can get up and over that on back-test it could fly. This would be my preferred play in the metals category. Also watch $AUMN if #SILVER gets up over 17.92. LETS NOT MISS THAT ONE EITHER.

Copper $JJC

Copper should cool soon here IMO and get some downdraft and then run again IMO.
Natural Gas – $NATGASUSD, $UGAZ, $DGAZ

Per previous…

I continue to watch per previous. I was expecting a floor down here (as with Gold and Silver not so much) and the downdraft this morning is significant (enough? not sure yet – ask me after election lol).

#NaturalGas IMO is almost at a floor, watch close!!! LETS CATCH THE TRAIN HERE TOO!

Good luck! And remember, we get in to nice predictable algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading with compound predictability starts Monday (we will just need to let trading settle in to its “natural mathematical state” for each intrument).

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

GL GL!

Curtis

 

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre Market, Trading Plan, Wallstreet, Stocks, Daytrading

08
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 8, 2016 ($USOIL $WTI Oil, $DXY US Dollar, $VIX, $GLD Gold … more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Tuesday November 8, 2016.

Election Day!

Two big things today… it is election day… but more importantly (for my trading at least)… EPIC the Oil Algo has locked in his math on time / price cycles and that means BIG TRADING coming there very soon (it’s exciting for me anyway – it means bank on top of bank cometh).

Premarket reports will not be detailed until after election.

As with recent… I’m sitting tight and trading scalps until after election – yesterday portfolio +3.5% increase and Friday +6.3% so that’s just fine for now.

Post election we will start on algorithmic trading main targets and trendlines and work with traditional indicators that I use for my trades with goal to compound accounts 10k to 1MM in 26 mos (however, as in last nights post market report, I may kick that up a notch to a 6 month curve – stay tuned).

So for now so detailed pre-market trade plan – after election however very detailed trading plans for each algorithm we have in development. Also, refer to pre and post market reports for last week or so if you wish to view my bias with any specific sector etc.

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra)

I explained my position on morning momo stocks in detail in yesterday’s premarket if you’re interested (bottom line they carry risk so I do trade them at times, but I avoid risk).

Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Pre Market Watchlist: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV) FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), more to come in trading room before market open.  

Markets Today – Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

Some obvious plays here… if Hillary gets last minute bad news I’l scalp $TVIX or $UVXY. If election goes well for her the obviously $XIV would be a decent scalp or swing. If THE Donald wins… watch out lol… volatitility. But either way I think the market gets a lift (if Donald wins market likely does a mini Brexit then lifts). I win everytime here (seriously almost). Brexit, last Jan, last Sept and Oil have been huge bonuses to my accts in addition to compound trading program – so I see the election as a bonus.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar index is the only one I’m really watching – if it gets flight there’s a good play in $TZA. But other than that I’m not interested in playing China or Britain or any other currency related trades until after election.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX etc)

Per yesterday’s post… buy the blood in the streets and buy the over extended pivots and Fib levels (for those that don’t understand pivots and Fib levels – we will be getting in to those indicators and algo indicators after election in detail in the room).

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI $XOP #OOTT #Algo)

Per yesterday “There was a recent time / price cycle change. @EPICtheAlgo is expected to have updates on his Twitter prior to open.”

EPIC published algorithmic updates with alpha algo targets and time / price cycle terminations and traditional charting trendlines representing support and resistance! REVIEW THOSE POSTS IN DETAIL!!! This I have learned is critical. Yesterday’s trade I got that increased my small account portfolio 3.5% was all because I actually listened to the algo and took that trade yesterday.

EPIC expects a big move up or down before end of this Friday so BE SURE TO KNOW YOUR LINES!!!

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Per yesterday and last few weeks (I haven’t done much here because I rely on the algo targets and we don’t expect anything predictable until after election) “Gold, Miners, Silver I was looking for on floor down over last month per my posts and this now may do it. We will watch to election and then start putting out our algorithmic charting and traditional charting and trade it.”

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV and Copper

As above.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ, $DGAZ

Watching for a snap back and how price handles a snap back. Risky still – until otherwise. 2.90 area looks critical to me.

I continue to watch per previous. I was expecting a floor down here (as with Gold and Silver not so much) and the downdraft this morning is significant (enough? not sure yet – ask me after election lol).

Good luck! And remember, we get in to nice predictable algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading with compoound predictability shortly after election (we will just need to let trading settle in to its “natural mathematical state” for each intrument).

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups).

http://finviz.com/, https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

Curtis

07
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 7, 2016 ($USOIL Oil, $DXY US Dollar, $VIX Volatility, $GLD Gold and more.)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Monday November 7, 2016.

Election Trading

Premarket reports will not be detailed until after elextion.

I’m sitting tight and will trade scalps until after election. After election we will start on algorithmic trading main targets and trendlines and work with traditional indicators that I use for my trades. So for now I’m not going to get to detailed with pre-market trade plans but after election you will see very detailed trading plans for each algorithm we have in development.

Momentum Stocks

I will at times take first 30 min momo plays if and only if I think I can secure a stop that is tight and get immediate momentum on my side… I know a lot of rooms will take these plays regularly… but they aren’t normally my style because I want clear risk reward on my side and a predictable exit on my side. Compound trading works well if disciplined (and it mitigates unnecessary risk). Nonetheless, I watch morning momo plays not only for the first 30 mins but also, and more importantly, they are often the stocks I trade later in the day when they snap back after a downdraft or they continue to trend (I am looking for technical indicators such as a trending moving average, increased volume, continued trend, and more). 1 snap back or continued trend per day at 1% (or .20 cents on a 20.00 stock) over 26 months is 10k to 1.14 MM or it can be done in 6 months with 4 of these trades a day…. but it has to be low risk so you can execute stops or manual exits with-out stress and undo risk.

So just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time). These I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Markets Today – Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

Well…. Hillary isn’t guilty they say… so everyone is happy… so we have a $VIX GAP DOWN of 12.5% at time of writing… which in my thinking is awesome… A $VIX in the 19’s is closer to the 13’s or 14’s I’d like to get an entry at and is much better than reaching for 22’s and 23’s… had I only held $XIV over weekend…. but I wasn’t prepared to take the risk… I want 1% a day for 10k to 1MM in 2 years… that’s it… simple… focus.

So the snap back I was all about last week is obviously here…. but I’d be careful with holds Monday and Tuesday night… you never know… things a fucky to say the least.

I’m looking for entries on either side of the range for scalps.. for me that’s it for now with $VIX.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

From last Thursday’s trading plan…

The US Dollar was close to a Fib at 97.07 earlier so this is an interesting watch for possible long in $UUP (long) and watching $UDN close (short a basket of currencies including British Pound).

Well… it got a little better downdraft than 97.07 and snap – back happened – overnight as I write it has snapped back from 96.89 – 97.70… I trade I should not have missed – I had it set-up.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

I will be watching other currency relationships also for Fib and Pivots and will post as opportunities / time arise.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX etc)

I don’t have much to say other than… there’s the snap back and remember to watch the pivots… same here… buy the blood in the streets and buy the over extended pivots and Fib levels (for those that don’t understand pivots and Fib levels – we will be getting in to those indicators after election in detail in the room).

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI #OOTT #Algo)

There was a recent time / price cycle change. @EPICtheAlgo is expected to have updates on his Twitter prior to open. Generally speaking it was in a downdraft near some support but at significant risk… but likely a tad over-sold.. and I see at time of writing it is up in over-night trading. I’d be very cautious though – but that’s just an opinion. We’ll see what EPIC’s calculations look like.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Gold, Miners, Silver I was looking for on floor down over last month per my posts and this now may do it. We will watch to election and then start putting out our algorithmic charting and traditional charting and trade it.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

As above.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ, $DGAZ

I continue to watch per previous.

So it’s really all about our current rally, staying nimble through election and then on to charting and trading thereafter with detailed set-ups.

Good luck!

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute super-nova type plays… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups).

http://finviz.com/, https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

Curtis

04
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter (Contrarian Day or Continued Sell-Off?)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 4, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! The election is near, it Payroll day… and will the market continue to sell-off? Even more importantly… can I get to the pool before the rain comes – soooo beautiful during trading hours and then lightening thunder and rain right when I get there – EVERYDAY.

My trading plan today (like my post market report last night) will be very brief… both because we were up all night with equipment and software upgrades and because from now until the election not much has changed….

EXCEPT…

I pivoted late day to a contrarian play and put my money where my mouth is on it and took $XIV trades with BOTH my small day trade account and large swing account. I may or may not move in and out of that position! Stay nimble!

THE MARKET CAN STAY….. you know the rest.

Morning Momentum / Yesterday Gainers:

Prior to election I doubt I will take a morning momo play… after election yes most days I do… but morning momo is going to be a tough play IMO – that is was I have mostly sat on my hands in the morning.

IF YOU WANT TO BLOW UP YOUR ACCOUNT… MESS UP MORNING MOMO!!!

It is a bit early to post momo plays so I will post them as I see them of interest in the room and on my Twitter feed as time allows.

Anyway, from yesterday I am following:

$IQNT, $MPG, $TCCO, $EVI, $ENOC, $DRYS – Shippers and Twitter and others…

Crude Oil – FX $USOIL, $WTI | $USO $DWTI $UWTI $CL_F Etc….

EPIC the Oil Algo new algorithmic calculations are not published yet for the new price / time zone… I wouldn’t expect them until before market open Monday because the price has done NOTHING since it dropped in to it’s new zone… it did slice right through a target on Wed at 10:30 AM (red circles) and looks like it will do the same for today’s 1:00 PM algo target. You can see on the chart how the algos are trading up to the algo trendline (red dotted line) and it has done not much else – but it is UNDER that red dotted line – caution IMO.

Gold, Silver, Miners, Metals… ($JNUG, $JDST, $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $GLD, $SLV, $USLV etc…)

My position is intact… prior to election downdraft I was looking for downdraft (one) in Gold and Silver (if you go back to my posts you will see consistency there) and I also am prepared for Gold and Silver among others to take off… I am watching. Watch $FXY.

Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ… etc)

No clue – no clue at all – it should be running. Just like silver should be IMO.

Volatility $VIX ($UVXY, $XIV, $TVIX etc)

I think $VIX insurance was a tad over-done yesterday… but of course I have been wrong before – so I took a contrarian trade in $XIV and we’ll see. RR was good and I have room in my win rate to fail once in a while:)

US Dollar Index $DXY $UUP and $HYG, $TLT etc..

It is threatening support – I would be cautious. You never know what kind of manipulation is coming over next few trading days – I AM WATCHING IT like a hawk. The dollar, credit, $HYG, $TLT, $DXY, China $CNY and other currencies etc…. I am watching very close.

Twitter

This is such an interesting play for me now – I was interested until recently – but now I am ESPECIALLY with some big name tech companies TANKING.

In Summary… between now and the election it is all about being nimble for me.

The trade room could get really exciting or be the most boring few trading days on record!

Watch the room alerts and my Twitter feed for updates!

Good luck and stay blessed! And please… bank bank bank.

Curt

 

 

03
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter (British Pound, $GBB, $IBB, $FB, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 3, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! The election is near, we’re past FOMC, Facebook has turned face and Brexit… did it happen?

I got more than my 1% yesterday compound (goal is 1 – 3%) so I am happy. My trading plan is consistent with other posts this week – so please review them quick with the exception of any morning momentum stocks. So this will be short!

Momentum Stocks and Others

I am watching $FB Facebook close (because of the downdraft) and $IBB Biotech close (oversold).

I am also watching the British Pound with $GBB (long Pound to US Dollar) and $FXB.

$BMRN BioMarin Pharma has an upgrade at Deutsche I like so I will watch that.

Russell 2000 – This might really tank if Hillary wins so I am watching this close.

And watch my Twitter feed right before and during market open for any other momentum plays.

And of course our chat room will have them live.

$DXY – US Dollar

The US Dollar was close to a Fib at 97.07 earlier so this is an interesting watch for possible long in $UUP (long) and watching $UDN close (short a basket of currencies including British Pound).

Volatility and Metals

With the FOMC behind us, the election ahead and Brexit may not be an exit I’m still looking at volatility and metals – I still like $JNUG and will be watching close (for example – read last few days posts).

I took a late day trade in $TVIX yesterday that looks like will struggle today, but I will hold. I don’t think $VIX insurance buys are done and I don’t think volatility is near over.

Natural Gas

Still confuses me so I continue to watch for a bounce.

Crude Oil

Oil I was going to take a long swing in but haven’t – I’m waiting for things to settle there and EPIC the Oil Algo’s new algorithmic calculations (which we expect sometime before Monday open – could be as early as this morning). Each time there is a time / price cycle termination the new calculations can take 1 – 3 business days because the calculations are based on trading action in the new time cycle.

So if you have an interest in more in a more in depth idea of my plan this week please review previous posts this week and I am going to check in on EPIC the Oil Algo now and see if we can get an update.

See you in the room!

Curtis

 

 

02
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($VRX, $SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for November 2, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

I have to admit, my trading plan today is a near carbon copy of yesterday with the exception of momentum stocks (of course have changed) and oil. So this will be short!

Most days this will be out much earlier – but our war room is bustling to say the least with algorithmic alarms firing off like never before (especially with time / price cycles terminating and proving that out in market trade in crude) and the election etc… and getting our trade room up bla bla. Yup busy – so soooon I’ll be more on top of it.

Below is a link to yesterday’s trading plan (recommended read ha) and if you haven’t visited EPIC the Oil Algo’s twitter feed you should – and try and listen better than I have to it lol.

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Today’s Momentum Stocks

I am looking at follow through possible with $VRX and watch my twitter feed or be in room for other momo’s.

Main Focus

My main focus will be to crude (finding a bottom for new time / price cycle)… so I will be very busy on my phone FYI with crude oil traders getting a feel for their positions (not that that has helped the last few days because they have taken a beating trying to catch the knife – EPIC laughs) and I will also be watching small cap metal stocks.

Of course we have the election and FOMC to watch out for too and the oil reports this morning and rigs on Friday.

FOMC is due at 2:00 EST http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/fomc-statement-earnings-deluge-in-the-spotlight-for-wall-street-us-election-eyed.html

Mortgage applications dropped and the ADP employment report wasn’t stellar to say the least.

And most importantly IMO is that (and I don’t know how many of you noticed) many YUGE traders on Wall Street (at least those in the public eye and online) had YUGE losses yesterday – so don’t buy the hype.

Watch the election momo – read my previous posts… I stand firm in that the dollar is strong but if Trump looks like he is going to win it could tank but against the MXN it will crush it… metals should rally… oil needs to find a bottom… natural gas needs to find a bottom soo and the market isn’t free (so watch out for the Fed WATCH CLOSE – oh and ya volatility – if you’re shorting (which is normally a decent play) I would think twice doing that soon – shorting volatility right now is a gamble (baccarat anyone? – BANKER!).

Ok, enough have a great day, review yesterday’s post and I’ll see you in the room. And don’t forget many of our technical issues will be sorted by Monday (read the daily room memo that updates that).

Stay blessed and bank and cut fast.

Curt

 

31
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for November 1, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

On Watch: Momentum Follow-Through Stocks:

Looking for potential follow-through on $BRCO, $INTX, $HMNY, $NTP, $TWTR, $CETX, $NVCN, $ATOS, $AUY

I won’t explain in detail what I’m looking for in this forum (I’ll do that in that trade room for each that are considered as / if they are considered).

Monday’s momo:

$BRCO + 22%

$INTX +25%

$HMNY +7.14%

$NTP + 7.86%

$TWTR +1.64%

$CETX +5.26%

$NVCN +29.96%

$ATOS +21.05%

$AUY +4.09%

On Watch: Morning Momentum stocks TBD.

$SPY Set-up / Volatility $XIV $TVIX $UVXY $VXX 

I think there is a set-up with $SPY… wait for volatility and play it – beyond that I’m not trading $SPY or related instruments because I believe the Fed is in there and has it pinned – period. Not enough width IMO.

$SPY, $TVIX, $XIV, $UVXY

Trading $SPY Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX Etc)

$VIX – Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX, etc)

My problem with $VIX is that I can’t take a trade this high in $UVXY etc. because I would want $VIX closer to 13 (but it may get away on me) and I can’t take a trade in $XIV etc because I don’t expect volatility to settle down before the election. So I’m watching very close between now and the election. I believe there will be daily opportunity here starting Wednesday at latest – there was lots of “insurance” buys Monday… so Tuesday may even open an opportunity.

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

There is nothing broken in the US Dollar Index chart IMO. The continued targets I’ve previously posted stand unless conditions change.

$DXY, US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index 1114 PM Nov 1

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust – Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

If you’re thinking of taking a position in Gold Miner’s this is good to follow. Last night it started to turn around and miner’s ran Monday (so no surprise and should have been an easy trade – distracted lol) so watch it if it continues to rise 9/10 times miner’s will follow… I even watch it with Gold plays and even before I take a small cap Gold company or miner position.

$FXY, Yen

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust Oct 31 1121 PM

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear

Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically – it can be a great daytrade.

$TZA

$TZA, Small Cap Bear 3x

$SMK / $EWW (Mexico Capped ETF)

If you think Trump is going to win you want to short $EWW or play $SMK (however thinly traded).

Crude Oil: FX $USOIL $WTI | FXCM $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

So crude had a significant downdraft Monday (OPEC / non OPEC couldn’t get it together I guess)… and ended up trading down to a diagonal trend-line (blue) from a previous time / price cycle and very near a horizontal price support (purple) and it appears that it will be heading for the nearest target EPIC the Oil Algo called. And to make matters worse (if you review a simple chart) the neckline support with oil has been breached (not that I give that much consideration).

I was going to take a long position in $UWTI at end of day but didn’t and will strongly consider one in the morning.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Looking for entry $GLD at 114.00 / 115.00 area – but I don’t think I will get that before the election.

Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target closer to 1177.00.

On Friday I wrote that I expected Gold Miner’s to run Monday and that occurred – I will be watching them close. There again wanted a pull-back I don’t think I’m going to get.

Going in to election I am very bullish most commodities. I am currently running charts on miner companies too.

$JNUG +7.42% Monday

$JUNG

$JUNG October 31 – Junior Gold Miner’s Bull 3x

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

$SLV, Silver

$SLV Silver

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

Here also, with natural gas I am looking for one level lower for an entry. It’s at 2.99 overnight and an ideal entry would be 2.86 (or at least a review there).

$UGAZ was off 9.42% on Monday so I will watch close Tuesday.

$UGAZ

$UGAZ Oct 31 -9.42%

The Finviz stock screener is available here:  http://finviz.com/.

Look forward to seeing you in the chat room. Visit www.compoundtrading.com and click on the link on the main page to enter the chat room.

Curtis

28
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, $USOIL Oil, $DXY, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Good morning stock traders!

$SPY $ES_F

I don’t expect any $SPY related trading until election unless there is some unexpected “width” in trade.

$VIX – $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

I do expect to be trading $VIX related instruments between now and election… however, with current chart I would like an entry when $VIX closer to 13. It is currently 15.2.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

$DXY is far from broken – break-out still intact. Upside resistance levels. Currently at 98.84. Look for further run in $DXY ($UUP), $FXY (Japan Yen) continued pressure,  $CNY (China Renminbi/USD ETN) continued deval, possible continued run with $TZA (small cap bear), and $SMK / $EWW (Mexico) I am watching for an election play.

FX $USOIL $WTI – $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Crude #Oil

Crude is well above its traditional charting diagonal and horizontal trend line supports and within its trading range. EPIC the Oil algorithm published targets for 1:00 today and current price action is almost perfectly between the two main alpha algo targets published. There is a significant time / price cycle terminating no later than Tuesday Nov 1 at 9:00 PM ET and normally price will move in or out of current trading range before the termination. In this case my bet is a movement before 4:30 PM Tuesday but it could be anytime now.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

I was looking for an entry in $GLD at the 114.00 / 115.00 area (intra-day price 120.98) – but I don’t think now I will get that before the election (that was the plan so I will watch). Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target.

Even with the pressure on the miner’s yesterday (even though a pull-back is likely short-term), I am looking for that move to continue over next week – again with election things are more difficult to future cast.

Going in to election however, I am very bullish most commodities. WITHIN DAYS I WILL BE HUNTING DOWN company equities specific to a strong move I see coming very very SOON.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

My thesis was the recent run-up (which we got and I miss timed) – but short term as with Gold I expect on level down in the elevator (again, could be wrong) so that is what I will watch for.

Summary

With all of the charts relating to the above I will be watching for support and resistance levels that make sense to trade (trying to only take trades on major pivots is important). Next week our charting and algo charting publications will become very detailed (in separate reports) which will make this discussion and trade planning more clear as a result of the detail (and the chat room / broadcasting will be going live – that will help clarity and intra-trading too).

Have a great day! May you bank and bank more! Freedom is calling your name!

Curt

PS: Other…

US GDP on deck as I write – looks like a small increase..

Rig count today 13:00 EST

Premarket: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616695/a-peek-into-the-markets-u-s-stock-futures-edge-higher-alphabet-posts-upb

12 Stocks To Watch:
AMGN, AMZN, CVX, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, Earnings, EXPE, GOOGL, Health Care.

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616065/12-stocks-to-watch-for-october-28-2016

 

 

27
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, $USOIL Oil, $DXY, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver and more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Good morning, Stock Traders! Earnings season is in full gear and everybody is happy (for now).

Yesterday was awesome with a 9.2% portfolio gain… looking to trade for at least 1% compound today (3% goal daily).

Today’s premarket trading plan will be quick – we’re burning 20 hour days getting everything ready for pre-launch.

$SPY ($ES_F)

Futures are “just” in the green – range bound boredom trade continues… there is a wedge that terminates near election day… wouldn’t you know it. No play for me here yet… I’ll be watching the volatility side close though.

I would expect S&P, DOW, NASDAQ and world markets in general to be up until at least early Tuesday next week (unless geopolitical issues hit). Yes, WikiLeaks may have a major drop on Hillary or Donald.

$VIX ($XIV, $TVIX, $XIV)

Continue on watch until election… I missed the trigger yesterday and will continue to watch… with Friday on deck I don’t expect volatility until early next week now at earliest so there may be an entry possible.

FX $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $CL_F, #OIL, #Crude, #OOTT)

This is one of the more interesting plays… EPIC the algo put out revised Friday alpha algo targets FYI.

Crude is holding on to horizontal trend-line supports (purple on chart), is holding on to diagonal trend-line support (blue) and holding Alpha algo diagonal trend-line (red)… all of which keeps it just above support… barely – one rumor and this will get great lift. The $DXY of course plays in (correlation seems somewhat delayed and then instant). There are two moderate time / price cycles ending at latest 2:30 PM ET today and a major one at November 1 at 10:30 PM ET. The time / price cycles (do change as chart builds out, so that’s why I regularly update them) but more importantly can definitely cause significant price lift or not. So look for moderate lift or downdraft before 2:30 PM ET today and for sure before Wed morning next week. My suspicion is a rumor is coming because they time the rumors with the near termination of time / price cycles every single time (if price is at risk near support).

I am looking for a long $UWTI.

Crude oil chart / algorithm

Crude algo intra work sheet 846 AM ET Oct 27, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

$DXY – US Dollar 

$DXY continues… nothing is broken – break out is still alive. I posted upper resistance on my twitter feed to watch for – they have been correct within cents so far.

I am looking at $TZA again if Dollar gets lift. I’ll also be watching the support in crude chart next time Dollar lifts.

I will at times play $UUP with US Dollar.

Watching $CNY for continued deval.

Also looking at $SMK (although thinly traded) as a play if Donald gets lift in poles (inverted Mexico ultra-short).

Gold $GLD $NUGT, Silver $SLV, and Natty Gas $UGAZ $DGAZ…

With all three I was expecting on more floor down before the election, and we may get it… so I’m looking for that… if they take off before I get my one floor done I may chase.

Charts and Algorithmic Reports

For the algorithms we are working with $SPY, Silver, Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, US Dollar $DXY etc… we will start publishing pre-market and post-market reports for EACH every market day starting NEXT WEEK!!!

Watch my Twitter feed for intra real-time calls and the trade room starting next week – IT ALL HAPPENS intra-day. I know the GURUS are all about the plan… but that’s most useful with company equities and all the DD they have to do in that momo game… I’ll play for fun but my 1% compound daily (10k to 1.14MM in 26 mos) comes from plays like above and more importantly from intra-day movements providing opportunity for the 1%.

Stay blessed and bring home some bacon today! And remember… Coffee is for closers!

Curt

26
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Gold, Silver, $USOIL $WTI, $DXY and more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Welcome!

We are looking forward to our pre-launch next week in the trading room (chat and live broadcast). This week we will start with light fare pre-market newsletters and after-market reports – over the coming weeks the reports will expand considerably in detail and depth, but for now we will keep it light to get in to the flow.

This morning I won’t publish a trade plan for VIX, Gold, Silver, SPY and Oil… but will increasingly provide a trade plan in these morning newsletters over the coming days (the ramp up). What I will provide is my basic trade plan for oil (you will find below) and comment generally on the others.

$VIX

I am looking for significant volatility between now and the election and even after. So I am watching day to day. I play $XIV $TVIX $UVXY and will explain in more detail as the coming days in to our pre-launch come.

$SPY

I am currently not trading any securities against our algorithmic calculations with SPY. Of all the algo calculations we are processing right now – this one is most uneventful. I am hoping that after the election this changes. So of the algo calculations and trading plans you will see us develop in more detail on these reports leading up to our launch, the $SPY algo is lagging the others. It’s coming – but the pre-election environment is not the best time-frame for algorithmic trading specific to S&P 500. The intra-day stuff, sure… and that will be covered in our trade room coming up.

Silver and Gold.

Right now I am sitting on my hands. I was waiting for a level down in both to retest previous support. I will say that my trade plan is VERY bullish come just before or after election. But still waiting. Our algos have been testing very precise with both so I am excited to trade these (and associated equities) in the coming weeks.

$DXY

The US Dollar. I have been posting for some time on my twitter feed about an impending break-out (which is here). We haven’t posted a lot about our algo development with $DXY, but I can tell you we are testing one and will be releasing it within a month or so. It is testing VERY precise and look forward to trading associated equities with it in our trading room over the next few weeks. I posted yesterday that I thought it should rest for a bit… and it has – it is now testing previous resistance to upside. I would be VERY cautious with it and watch for more lift especially if you are trading oil related equities etc… crude oil reacted in a strong way to the Dollar as the day went on yesterday. Early in the day not so much but as the day went on the affects of the Dollar (and obviously OPEC chatter) seemed to weigh on crude (it was a delayed effect).

EPIC the Oil Algo. FX: $USOIL $WTI (can be used as a trader’s edge for futures, $DWTI, $UWTI, $CL_F and more).

We just published the adjusted forecasts for EPIC the Algo alpha targets for Tuesday 10:30 AM and we will revise the Friday 1:00 PM ET forecasts soon. They are posted to EPIC’s twitter feed https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo.

These forecasts are simply targets that run along the algo trading pivot or trend-lines. Algos (machines) will move price from target to target in accordance to market direction. As such, trading with this type of system is much better done on an intra-day basis (hence why our trading room is opening). Nonetheless, in the meantime the targets can be used to trade against. So in our charts you will notice red trend-lines (this are the alpha algo trend-lines), you will also notice traditional charting diagonal trend-lines in blue (the thicker they are the more important they are) and also horizontal traditional trend-lines (purple). We also publish the charts with the 20, 50, 100, 200 day traditional MA. What is missing are the algo quadrants that allowing for precise intra-day trading (these will be on the charts in the trading room for each subscriber to each algorithm). What you also don’t see on the charts are other traditional indicators such as VWAP, MAC cross-over etc… we do not publish them to the charts because quite frankly there are many and our charting is “busy” enough.

Crude, Oil, WTI, Stocks

Crude algo intra work sheet 748 AM ET Oct 26, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Above is the most recent crude chart. The arrow on the far right shows a traditional charting TL that is obviously critical to the support of pricing in the current time / price cycle that crude is in right now. The middle arrow is pointing at a traditional horizontal trend-line (purple) that has just been breached. The upper arrow is a diagonal trend-line that is also critical on the upper side. As long as the price of oil stays between the upper blue T line and the lower t line nothing has changed. I would even venture to say the lower purple horizontal support at the bottom of the chart above keeps this time / price cycle in play. And don’t forget, we’re waiting for more “deal” news out of the oil boys soon.

While crude remains in this trading zone I will continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. However, I do trade around the important weekly reports and do utilize the algo quadrants that we will be discussing in the trading room. If the trading range is breached, we then reset and find the new range and trade in it. That’s basically how I’ve traded ($UWTI and $DWTI) with near 95% accuracy for some time.

Watch the support and resistance trend-lines I have explained after the oil report this morning!!! This will establish whether oil remains in this trade range or not. If it does not we will post updates to EPIC’s Twitter feed regularly of course!

Chatter this morning about oil:

S&P GLOBAL PLATTS PREVIEW OF U.S. EIA DATA: LIKELY TO SHOW CRUDE STOCKS ROSE 400,000 BARRELS

https://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2016/102516/no

Oil prices are too gloomy on chance of OPEC deal

So that is my basic trade plan – I know it is light and in coming days it will become much more precise and informative. We’re working around the clock right now to get the trade room up so I appreciate the support from the early subscribers (guys and gals I am happy to report) and you can look forward to detail, detail, detail over the coming days!

Stay blessed.

Curt

PS

Early movers..

 

 

 

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