Trading Strategy for US Dollar Trade Alert Issued This Morning in Premarket for the Swing Trade Positioning in to Week of August 5, 2019 Time Cycle.
This a very important trading opportunity not just for the US Dollar, but many other instruments of trade on the equity, commodity and currency markets are affected by the price of the US Dollar. Below is your complete trading strategy for the time cycle peak coming in the Dollar.
On public facing Twitter feeds the alert reads;
“Member Alert: Large US Dollar Index (DXY) time cycle week of Aug 5, 2019 (extends 7 trading days either side). Trade Set Up detail to your email in today’s premarket. #timecycles $DXY $UUP #USD #SwingTrading”
Member Alert: Large US Dollar Index (DXY) time cycle week of Aug 5, 2019 (extends 7 trading days either side). Trade Set Up detail to your email in today's premarket. #timecycles $DXY $UUP #USD #SwingTrading
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) August 1, 2019
On the private member alert feed the alert reads;
“US Dollar Index (DXY) Long trade likely to turn short other side of Aug 5 week, watch for report with all signals $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD”
https://twitter.com/SwingAlerts_CT/status/1156872463273402369
Below is the chart and link for the US Dollar (DXY) time cycle alert;
US Dollar Index (DXY) Long trade likely to turn short other side of Aug 5 week, watch for report with all signals $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
US Dollar Index (DXY) Long trade likely to turn short other side of Aug 5 week, watch for report with all signals $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
How to Trade the US Dollar (DXY) Time Cycle Peak.
The trading strategy for the US Dollar Index is simple if you use the model chart provided above.
In early 2018 we had alerted that the US Dollar was divergent to the downside and that a run in the dollar was imminent. The US Dollar traded up since that time from sub 90.00 to currently trading at 99.91.
When the US Dollar traded higher (after our alerts) it then reached the area of the main pivot (shown on chart above with horizontal red dotted line). The Dollar then traded around that pivot for some time. The trading pivot is important in your trading plan.
Simple Chart Symmetry and Price Targeting (price extensions) for this time cycle says to measure from the recent lows (trading just under 90.00) to the pivot area of 96.64 (about 7.00) and add the 7.00 approximately to 96.64 and you get about 103.50 ish. There are different ways to measure this – you can take the hard and fast support and resistance lines on the chart and measure from there or use exactly what price action said. In other words, the chart says support was 90.00, but the Dollar traded under 90.00 before it turned back up and got bullish. Depending on how you use those numbers this then determines your extension to the top. Lets call it 103.50 and use that for this example for your trading strategy.
The charting says the time cycle peak is the weak of Aug 5, 2019. This is a large time cycle so you have to allow for a week or so either side of the weak of the peak. Coming out of the other side of that peak the trade action (trading trajectory) will be key. You will either see a continuation of the current bullish trend or a turn to the bearish trade side. Probability says the price of the US Dollar will turn down. However, this is not always the case.
The chart says that 102.92 is your peak resistance price, but this can be extended up some for two reasons. One reason is the price extension you may measure from the previous lows, in this instance you would see the Dollar trade in to the 103s or 104s before turning. The other reason for a price higher than 102.92 is a simple over trade extension that happens at large time cycle tops and bottoms in trade – an over exaggerated move.
If the trade trajectory continues bullish then you simply extend the price up one structure above the current area of trade (see chart below). This is an unlikely scenario but it may occur. This bullish run would then peak in to the week of March 30, 2020 (this can change as we come near to the date, watch for charting updates). The price target in this scenario is 109.30 for March 30, 2020.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish trading strategy for 109s in to Mar 30 2020 $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
US Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish trading strategy for 109s in to Mar 30 2020 $DXY $UUP #swingtrade #USD
The Bear scenario to short the US Dollar is more likely, below is your trading strategy.
As noted above, simply wait for the week of August 5, 2019 and watch trade the week on the other side. Watch the key resistance areas on the chart. Early on in to the time cycle start to size your trade and continue sizing the trade (in my case it will be short $UUP likely) and then start to take profit at each support on the way back down as the US Dollar trades lower in to March 30 of 2020.
It is important to get your full size in early enough but not too early so you get caught on the wrong side.
If you need help with the trade let me know.
Watch the chart resistance close as we trade the markets over the coming few weeks, watch the apex of the quad the US Dollar is trading in currently on the chart. Watch for the inflection points. You can also bring your time down to a daily or 4 hour chart to get a better feel for what trade is doing.
Also, be sure to watch our trade alerts on our alert feeds and in live trading room. If you need some coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed [email protected].
Thanks,
Curt
Other Reading:
US Dollar Index on Market Watch https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Dollar hits two-year high after Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point as expected https://cnb.cx/2MsfQn1
Recent Swing Trade and Day Trading Reports (charts can be brought down to Day Trading time frame):
Master Trading Profit & Loss Statement (Most Recent – Updated Regularly – Check Blog for Updates):
Recent Daily Trading Profit & Loss Reports:
Trading Profit & Loss Report (Trades, Alerts) for July 8 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $CL_F, $USO
Trading Profit & Loss Report (Trades, Alerts) for July 3 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO
Daily Trading Profit & Loss (Alerts) Report: July 2, 2019 $AMD, $BTC, $XBT_F, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO
Recent Premarket Notes (published as time allows, what we’re up to with our trading):
Premarket Notes July 31, 2019: FOMC, EIA, #OOTT, $USO, $NOV, $TREX, $CHEGG, $TSLA, $AMD …
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Article Topics: US Dollar, USD, Trading, Strategy, Charts, Algorithm, Currencies, Alerts, $DXY, Swing Trade, $UUP, time cycles
Crude Oil Trade Strategy Updates June 23, 2019.
Signals for CL Day Trading, Trend and Swing Trading. Intra-Day, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Time-Frames.
The charts, algorithm models, signals, price targets and guidance included below are suitable for mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding staff reference for our crude oil machine trade development.
With each chart model we may include trade strategy notes for your consideration.
For perspective, review historical reporting on our blog and the various videos we have published to our YouTube channel.
Much of the structured model discipline used is similar in concept as discussed in this video; Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street.
Crude oil price moves within structured areas (ranges) of charting on various time frames (different time cycles in trade). The structure oil price moves within (the range) can be one minute charting timing through to monthly charting. Time-frame set-ups / strategies are charted as conventional chart set-ups and/ or algorithmic chart set-ups (structures). Understanding and having each time frame at your immediate access (both conventional and algorithmic) will increase the probability of profitable trading.
Sizing your trades appropriate to your trading account and time frame for each set-up is additionally positive strategy.
Using the correct chart time-frame specific to your trading strategy is critical. Generally, the lower (smaller) the time frame the less predictable the support and resistance areas of the chart will be. However, the larger time-frames (monthly, weekly, daily) can also have significant “slippage”.
Generally, the idea is to enter your positions based on the structure for the specific time frame you are wanting to trade referencing the other time frame support and resistance or range within the trend. The basic method is to understand the range of trade and execute trade long bias when price is near support for the appropriate time frame / structure and the opposite is true for short trades.
Our staff use the thirty minute model structures (range within trends) most often for primary areas of support and resistance trading signals referencing all other time-frames in their trading strategy.
Positioning should be significantly biased to the trending range of trade. For more information about trend identification for trading various time-frames refer to this article on Investopedia; Multiple Time Frames Can Multiply Returns.
If you have questions about the models below please email us at [email protected].
Not all charts are updated every week and some concept or test charts are added or deleted on occasion.
Please note, the chart links are now distributed specific to each user or small group of users. If you are using more than one device to access the charting, to avoid disruption of service, please email us a simple / general description of those devices to assist in controlling dissemination.
EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model. 30 Minute Oil Chart Structure.
The EPIC algorithm model chart below is a proprietary structure that has been back tested sixty months on thirteen time-frames. The model represents the most probable areas of support and resistance in oil trade within this specific time-frame.
The levels noted on the EPIC model are to be used as important areas of consideration for support and resistance (trade signals) for your trading strategy when using conventional charting set-ups / structures and/or other algorithmic charting.
Resistance and support areas on the thirty minute charting oil trade structure are at each line on the algorithmic chart. The primary areas of support and resistance are;
- Outer quadrant walls / also used as channel support and resistance (orange dotted diagonal lines), the half way point between each is often an executable buy or sell trigger in trade (not shown on model below),
- Mid channel line for uptrend and down trend (white dotted diagonal),
- Mid quad horizontal (not marked but is at the mid point of the quad),
- Fibonacci levels (various horizontal colored lines),
- Historical areas of support and resistance (purple horizontal).
- The intra-week swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next (commonly becomes a pivot area of trade).
- The important historical diagonal trend-lines (conventional trend lines) are represented on the chart as thick white lines.
- Also of note are the price targets for Tuesday 4:30 PM (API), Wednesday 10:30 AM (EIA) and Friday 1:00 PM (Rig Count). The Tuesday and Wednesday targets hit significantly more often than the Friday target (red circles with red or green vertical dotted lines intersecting).
- At times other indicators are added to the chart such as trend lines and moving averages.
The video at this link explains How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, #OIL, #Trading, #Algorithm, #OOTT as does this video Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart June 21 #OIL #OOTT and this Webinar 1: EPIC the Oil Algorithm.
When conventional crude oil charting coincides (or agrees) with the EPIC algorithmic model support and resistance this is then considered a significant buy or sell trigger (signal) for crude oil trade.
Be aware (at minimum) of the primary support and resistance areas on the larger time-frames (lower time frames are not as critical) – in this instance (when trading the 30 min time frame) the 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charting should be considered when sizing your trades etc.
EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm June 23 233 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm June 23 233 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil 30 Minute Alternate Chart Models.
Per recent;
30 Min Alternate Trend Lines Crude Oil Trading Model 1229 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
30 Min Alternate Trend Lines Crude Oil Trading Model 1229 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
One Minute Oil Trading Model. Ideal for Intra-day Crude Oil Trade.
The one minute oil trading model provides for pinpoint trade entry, sizing and exit points for daytrading oil. It is also used for squeeze scenarios in oil day trading. The main range is between the red / blue areas with thicker dotted white lines. The range is considerably more predictable in a squeeze scenario.
Intra-day diagonal trend-lines should be added by the daytrader.
Per recent;
One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trade) April 20 1120 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trade) April 20 1120 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
5 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model.
The five minute oil trading strategy chart below includes a Elliot impulse 5 wave component for when oil is trading intra-day on this time frame. The horizontal / diagonal / sloping up-trending green lines can be used as support and resistance decision areas.
5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model 308 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model 308 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
15 Minute Crude Oil Trading Model(s).
Crude oil 15 min channel chart version one.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/kobbU9WE-15-channel/
Crude oil 15 min channel chart version one.
Crude Oil 15 Min Channels Vers 2 (needs work), 1231 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Chart
Crude Oil 15 Min Channels Vers 2 (needs work), 1231 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Chart
Per recent;
Crude oil range of trade May 19 927 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Crude oil range of trade May 19 927 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
60 Minute Oil Charting.
Per recent;
60 Min Trend Channel Trade Box Fork (concept chart) May 29 1:10 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/zvQ2QZmJ-60-Min-Trend-Channel-Trade-Box-Fork-concept-chart-May-29-1-10/
4 Hour Trending Channel Chart.
Per recent;
4 Hour Oil Trending Channel Chart with Trading Boxes Moving Averages 123 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/OryQDlVj-4-Hour-Oil-Trending-Channel-Chart-with-Trading-Boxes-Moving-Aver/
4 Hour Symmetry Chart Model.
Per recent;
4 Hour Symmetry Chart, Needs to be Cleaned Up May 19 134 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
4 Hour Symmetry Chart, Needs to be Cleaned Up May 19 134 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
4 Hour Oil Concept Trading Model.
Per recent;
The 4 hour crude oil concept model below has trend-lines, Fibonacci support and resistance horizontal lines (pay close attention to the gray horizontal lines) and diagonal algorithmic Fib trend lines (orange dotted).
4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 19 154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.
4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 19 154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.
Per recent;
4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 1216 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.
Daily Chart Trading Model(s).
The daily time frame provides a larger structure to consider. The diagonal Fib lines are important as are the mid quad horizontal lines. The moving averages (especially the 200 MA) should be considered in your trade strategy. The MACD is a common indicator on the daily oil chart for forward positioning and trend bias.
Crude Oil Daily View with 200 MA overhead of Weekly Range, channel and trendlines $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart
Crude Oil Daily View with 200 MA overhead of Weekly Range, channel and trendlines $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart
Per recent;
Daily Crude Oil, MACD turned down, first price target ext lower met 1249 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Daily Crude Oil, MACD turned down, first price target ext lower met 1249 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Per recent;
April 28, 2019 Trading Strategy / Set-Up Based on Symmetry in the Trend on the Daily Chart.
A sell off in exact place in structure of daily chart model did occur once previous in this trend (see two circled areas on daily chart below).
The two instances of selling pressure in the bullish daily trend in oil trade happens to be a perfect symmetrical measured extension in the progression.
IF crude oil trades up the same measured extension as the low to the first sell off in the symmetry, this would imply a high in this trend for crude oil on FX USOIL WTI to approximately 69.00 – if symmetry continues.
Before a pull back, or about 600 ticks from where oil is currently trading at 62.96.
See chart below;
Daily Crude Oil Chart with Symmetry of Previous Sell Off and Price Target of 69.00 if Symmetry Continues 1154 PM April 28 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/jATfXaXD-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-with-Symmetry-of-Previous-Sell-Off-and-Pri/
Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross 200 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/YQqAuPhh-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Golden-Cross-200-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL-WTI-U/
Pre recent;
Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross Set Up Still In Play Despite Sell Off 1255 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross Set Up Still In Play Despite Sell Off 1255 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Weekly Oil Trading Model(s).
Crude Oil Weekly (Magnified+) Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart
Crude Oil Weekly (Magnified+) Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart
Crude Oil Weekly Chart – Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart
Crude Oil Weekly Chart – Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart
Per recent;
Weekly crude oil chart perspective May 19 1036 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Weekly crude oil chart perspective May 19 1036 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
The most important signals on the weekly chart model are the red historical trend lines. Pay very close attention to them. There are other common indicators included on the model also.
Per recent;
Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 118 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
May 6 – price nearing an important trend line support (red line on chart below).
Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 118 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Per recent;
Oil Time Cycle comes in June 10, can it reverse prior FX USOIL $WTI $CL_F $UWT $DWT #timecycles #Oil #OOTT
Oil Time Cycle comes in June 10, can it reverse prior FX USOIL $WTI $CL_F $UWT $DWT #timecycles #Oil #OOTT
Monthly Oil Trading Model.
Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 209 PM May19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ih0o30Tj-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-209-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL/
Per recent;
Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 126 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Weekly trend line resistance area holding so far.
Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 126 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Per recent;
Monthly 200 MA Crude Oil Trading Chart April 8 1247 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
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Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.
Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Futures, Strategy, Signals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO
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Crude Oil Algorithm Trading Chart Report (EPIC) w/ Machine Trading Sunday Jan 13, 2019.
FX: $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $UCO $SCO $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP
Welcome to the oil trading algorithm report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algorithm and I am one of seven primary Algorithmic Chart Models in development at Compound Trading Group (there are over one hundred in total in development at various stages in various markets).
NOTICES:
New members to our oil algorithm charting models, oil trade alerts and oil trading room are encouraged to on-board in a way that equips you as an oil trader for consistent profit.
Visit my public Twitter feed EPIC Oil Algorithm Twitter (@EPICtheAlgo) and review tweets over the last few months, visit our blog and review the recent crude oil trading algorithm blog posts, You Tube channel “how my oil algorithm works”, “how to use my charting”, weekly EIA oil report videos and our website explains how the oil algorithm was developed.
Invaluable are the crude oil trade alerts (available with or without the trading room / weekly report bundle) and the private member crude oil trading chat room on Discord (included in the bundle) and attendance to the live trading room.
The live alerts are important if you are not at your trading screens 24 hours a day and the chat room allows for interactive lead trader oil trade set-ups as each oil trade approaches. All bundle members can access the live oil trading room when active also.
Reviewing important points of reference and engaging the subscription resources will increase your probability of success considerably. This report also includes links to some recent example “how-to” videos.
Oil Trade Coaching – We strongly suggest users of this algorithmic crude oil trading strategy opt for some level of private one-on-one coaching with our lead trader. Our lead trader is maintaining a crude oil trading alert win-rate of over 90% as of Sept 2, 2018 (time-stamped, live alert, recorded).
On our website one-on-one online coaching packages are available (coaching via Skype) or you can request a custom package reflecting the time you wish to invest in learning. To request a custom package suited to your needs email [email protected] or click here for standard private trade coaching packages. Other options for coaching include online webinars, trade coaching bootcamps and private on location (in person) coaching sessions.
Oil Trading Room – How to Use the Oil Algorithm
Oil Trading Room – How to Trade Intra-day with my Algorithmic Oil Charting
Oil Trading Alerts. Live Lead Trader Video Trading w EPIC Oil Algorithm
Recent articles / videos from our blog about how to trade crude oil with our oil trading algorithm (if you are a newer member that needs an unlock code for any of the posts below please email [email protected]):
Crude Oil Trading Strategies | Oil Trading Room | Trade Oil Review
Crude Oil Trading Strategy | Technical Analysis & Guidance.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Career Trade Set-Up. Technical Analysis Trading Room w/ Video
Crude Oil Algorithmic Trading: A Simple Strategy That Wins – Real Life Example.
Daytrading Crude Oil: Buy Sell Signals Strategy for Intra-day Sell Off Reversal.
Crude Oil Trading Strategies: This Is It. How To Trade Crude Oil’s Next Move.
Protected: Crude Oil Trading Strategy – How I Will be Trading Oil in to Time Cycles.
Protected: Oil Trading Room – Oil Trading Signals with Lead Trader (plus video).
For the more articles / videos available visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil page here.
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available on our shop page.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is now also in the coding phase for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process, about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on Twitter feed and/or this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an oil algorithmic model in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am presented on (and used on) conventional trade charting as one would normally use.
The goal is to provide oil traders with signals for an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil – first with the reporting format as below, then with machine trading functions and an integrated intelligent assisted traders platform that will provide the user with various settings of automation and personal trade execution.
In the weekly report below you will find simplified levels represented on conventional and algorithmic charting for intra-day (day-trading crude oil), swing trading and investing.
This work (and associated trading) should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on with oil related financial instruments.
Forward questions to [email protected], private message our lead trader on Twitter or in the private Discord oil trading room.
For further information this link explains how our algorithmic charting is done, this YouTube video explains in summary how my algorithm works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUNyxFoXJp8 this link for more information about our algorithmic stock charting models and what makes them different than most.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE SIGNAL (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED, ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
Oil Algorithm Observations:
Below is a link for the live algorithmic chart of EPIC the Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (Generation 1, Version 5 including black box modeling). The charting is a real-time trading chart represented on FX USOIL WTI published January 13, 2019.
Click on share button (bottom right beside flag) and when that screen opens click on “make it mine” to view real-time, make edits etc:
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Intra-day crude oil trade. Jan 12 1154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Note: The holiday anomalies in the chart model are near totally worked through, some remain, but not significant enough to detail.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Intra-day crude oil trade. Jan 12 1154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
January 13, 2019
Generation 1 Model Oil Trading Signals
The first most predictable trade are the resistance and support cluster areas formed by long term chart trend lines (see charts that have trend-lines represented in red as made available below near bottom of this report – conventional charting trend-lines).
The second most predictable trade (wide trading range primary resistance and support that become predictable buy and sell triggers). Current algorithmic model wide trading range resistance (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 54.45 in the current trading range. Current algorithmic model wide trading range support (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 50.80 in the current trading range – these areas are general range support and resistance areas (our algorithm uses a .15 – .20 cent buffer on either side for these trades – if that is exceeded then trading price is likely to use the line as a pivot until a directional trending trade is established).
Trading between the resistance / support horizontal grey lines is extremely profitable risk – reward if one is disciplined to the patience required and follows the trend of trade.
More recently (as of September 2018) our back-testing has shown that the support and resistance areas noted are used in trade as a decision pivot – in other words, the price tends to pivot around these decision points on the chart and coil over a period of time and then spring out of the coil in an upward or downward trend.
The lower trading range is 47.14 – 50.79 and upper trading range 54.46 – 58.07.
Third most predictable trade (support and resistance of uptrend or down trend channels). On the chart an upward trending trade channel is presented and a downward option (channel support and resistance / trading range is represented as diagonal dotted orange lines and purple arrows – as made available, assist in displaying directional trade decision areas).
Fourth most predictable trade (support and resistance of 30 min quadrants). The diagonal lines make up quadrants (in this instance on a 30 min chart) and are represented as orange diagonal lines that make up geometric diamond shapes. These lines also assist in intra-day trade.
Fifth most predictable trade (support and resistance of most applicable Fibonacci) the Fib support and resistance lines are the horizontal lines in various colors with the exception of purple and yellow (see below). These horizontal lines become support and resistance for intra-day trade.
Sixth most predictable trade (support and resistance of historical support and resistance) Natural / historical support and resistance lines shown in purple or yellow – they represent historical support and resistance. The strongest of the historical support and resistance lines are shown in yellow horizontal and are typically accompanied by a yellow arrow marker.
Seventh most predictable trade signal we use are the time and price targets (red circles). When trade is in a significant uptrend or downtrend the targets become very precise and move up the indicator priority list quick.
Tues, Wed and Fri targets are most predictable in extended multi week up-trends or down-trends.
The Eighth most predictable trade is intra-day. You will notice on some of the charting geometric shapes in green on some of my charting (at times). They are charted live in the trading room and at times the lead trader will highlight these areas intra with white outlines (typically geometric shapes such as diamonds or triangles).
Intra-day Trading Bias
Intra day bias is up side trade as the MACD is turned up on the daily chart and this indicator is usually a leading indicator for oil trade on this time-frame. However, after the recent run up in price (since Christmas) and the pressure that came in to oil trade last week it is highly probable pressure continues in to this coming trading week.
Wide Trading Range – Buy and Sell Triggers for Swing Trading Crude Oil:
Swing trading bias / forward guidance as of Jan 13 12:01 AM EST is indecisive for the reasons noted above.
Review the charting and stay on top of the structures that play out in the different time frames. It has everything to do with the time frame you are trading.
Trade the ranges noted above between the thick grey lines (grey arrows) for the most predictable swing trades between 47.14 – 50.79, 50.80 – 54.44, 54.45 – 58.06, 58.07 to 61.69, 61.70 to 65.31, 65.32 to 68.92, 68.93 to 72.54, 72.55 to 76.14 and 76.15 to 79.74. This is a highly profitable risk-reward way to trade oil if you can be patient to trigger at only the break of the wide range charting areas and are disciplined to cut a losing trade that does not prove in your anticipated trend.
Or trade the range between the channel diagonal lines at support and resistance in up or down channel (orange dotted diagonals).
Significantly more advanced trading rules will be introduced over the coming weeks with the newer Machine Trading software development in full swing now.
Channel Trading Scenarios for this Week on the Model Shown on Algorithmic Model:
Follow the red circle targets up or down per the charts below.
THIS WEEK is more unclear than most in that channel trade could occur parallel to the channels noted on the charts below.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Gen 1 and Gen 2 Algorithmic Oil Trading Machine Driven Model Development.
Per recent report example:
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Hidden pivot locations. Oct 25 831 PM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Hidden pivot locations. Oct 25 831 PM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Per recent example;
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen2.V2 (EPIC). Machine trading intra-day. Sept 17 552 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
This is an alternate machine trading model currently in development.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen2.V2 (EPIC). Machine trading intra-day. Sept 17 552 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Per recent example;
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen2.V1 (EPIC). Machine trading intra-day. Sept 11 1246 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen2.V1 (EPIC). Machine trading intra-day. Sept 11 1246 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Generation 1 Day-Trading Crude Oil 1 Minute Chart Signals
The trading box on the 1 min daytrading charting is key. Daytrading updates are often shared in the Discord Oil Chart Room.
Per recent example:
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time.
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time. Nov 6 1241 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #Chart
Crude Oil Swing Trade Charting.
Monthly Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
On the widest time-frame this monthly crude oil chart seems to hold support and resistance zones at diagonal Fibonacci (outside quad) trend lines and horizontal Fibonacci (mid quad) lines. The timing cycle vertical lines (green dotted) seem to be in play especially when you fractal the time frames down.
Trade is currently testing upside of 50 MA on monthly chart.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Lead Trader trading note: If I had this chart in recent trade I would have added to my DWT short when trade touched the lower TL line and trading box support area. I really like this monthly structured charting.
If you are swing trading crude oil I see no reason not to follow the support and resistance areas of this chart for swing trading using appropriate sizing flow at each decision.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Weekly Crude Oil Chart(s):
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
May 13, 2018 chart post with important notes:
Oil retrace probability high, historically #timecycle Notes.
Previous Crude Oil Time Cycle Special Report for Context:
Dating back to 2002, 12 of 13 major time cycles on weekly oil chart have seen trend reversal to some extent or another #OILChart
Crude Oil Weekly Trend Line Chart – Structured support bounce last two weeks. Jan 13 1110 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trade #charting
Crude Oil Weekly Trend Line Chart – Structured support bounce last two weeks. Jan 13 1110 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trade #charting
Crude Oil Weekly Trend Line Charting – very busy chart Jan 13 958 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trade #charting
Crude Oil Weekly Trend Line Charting – very busy chart Jan 13 958 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trade #charting
Per recent for perspective:
Crude Oil. Weekly trend-line chart. Dec 17 403 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OIL #trading
Crude Oil. Weekly trend-line chart. Dec 17 403 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OIL #trading
Daily Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Daily Chart MACD still up with price on support of trading box with 50 MA test above Jan 13 1057 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Lots going on with this daily oil charting. Price bounced near that large trend line down-trending from previous time cycle (dotted gray) and near bottom of trading quad. Now testing 50 MA with reconfirmation of MACD. Bullish with an overhead test is the bottom line.
Crude Oil Daily Chart MACD still up with price on support of trading box with 50 MA test above Jan 13 1057 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Crude Oil Daily Symmetry Chart Jan 13 1127 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #crude #Oil #Symmetry
Crude Oil Daily Symmetry Chart Jan 13 1127 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #crude #Oil #Symmetry
Per recent for perspective:
Crude Oil Daily Symmetry Chart Suggests 41 area possible. Dec 17 424 AM FX USOIL WTI CL_F
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/TcRHKafW-Crude-Oil-Daily-Symmetry-Chart-Suggests-41-area-possible-Dec-17/
240 Minute Crude Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil 2490 Min Test Chart Jan 13 1132 AM FX USOIL WTI CL_F $USO #algorithm #crude #oil
Crude Oil 2490 Min Test Chart Jan 13 1132 AM FX USOIL WTI CL_F $USO #algorithm #crude #oil
30 Minute Crude Oil Chart(s):
Per recent;
Crude Oil 30 Min Simple Algorithmic Chart Model Nov 19 434 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Crude Oil 30 Min Simple Algorithmic Chart Model Nov 19 434 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points (currently represented in red below on our conventional charting).
Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable.Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Recent Live Crude Oil Trade Alerts (sample signals):
See recent special oil reports, private alert Twitter feed and/or Discord private member oil chat room for many more examples.
Jan 13 – Recent trade alerts will be updated soon in more detail.
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at open #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Personal scalp trade when futures opened Tues night in crude oil $CL_F $USO #OOTT #OilTradeAlerts
Short $DWT (inverse Oil ETN) 13.55 starter Curt #Oil #Trade #Alert
We are short DWT (short oil ETN) from last week $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT #oil #trade #alerts
Machine trading screen shots from oil alert feed tonight. FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #Trading #Alerts #OOTT #machinetrading
Recent Oil Algorithm Price Target Hits:
Jan 13 – Price Target Reporting will be updated soon.
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants (white dotted lines):
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article topics: EPIC, Crude, Oil, Algorithm, Trade, Alerts, Trading Room, Chat, Charts, Signals, Time Cycles, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, $CL_F