Swing Trading Structured Charting Stock Time Cycles for Predictable Wins and Significant Gains. Part 1.
The STONECO (STNE) Trade Provides an Excellent Opportunity for a Tutorial on How to Swing Trade Stock Time Cycles.
Time cycles are through-out the financial markets, indices, sectors, equities (stocks), commodities, currencies, crypto and in every corner of the financial markets.
- One of the single most considerable trader “edges” we have in our tool kit are time cycles.
- Stock time cycles allow for a trader to gain a better probability edge.
- Time cycles in stock trading allow a trader to better time entries and exits in a trade, time trades and establish appropriate size risk.
The STONECO trade example provides swing traders with a clear idea of how this swing trading strategy works.
In Part 1 we look at the the trade executions, the entries and profit taking areas of trade.
In Part 2 (Premium User) we will look at how exactly traders can replicate our success in this specialized area of swing trading expertise. How to chart the structure of the stock, choosing the best time-frame for the trade, time cycles, advanced Fibonacci Retrace levels and chart modeling, sizing your trade, exits and entries, risk management and more.
Okay, lets look at the trade itself first:
Finding a systematic trading process provides a trader’s edge. The more a trader has, the better. Learn to play the game better, achieve better returns.
Life is like a game of cards. The hand you are dealt is determinism; the way you play it is free will.
Jawaharlal Nehru
Life is like a game of cards. The hand you are dealt is determinism; the way you play it is free will.
Jawaharlal Nehru
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 18, 2020
Below is a tweet I sent out today that includes screen shots of the swing trade alert feed of the charting and alerts for exits and entries in this time cycle trade.
What #timecycle #swingtrade looks like on structured model.
Vertical blue lines are time cycle peaks.
Long IN SIZE & added IN SIZE in to time cycle sell off (blue vertical, trading fear) while others panic.
Near double $STNE time cycle trade
Alerts & charting
What #timecycle #swingtrade looks like on structured model.
Vertical blue lines are time cycle peaks.
Long IN SIZE & added IN SIZE in to time cycle sell off (blue vertical, trading fear) while others panic.
Near double $STNE time cycle trade🎯🏹🔥
Alerts & charting👇 pic.twitter.com/nlOqqKDqrx
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 19, 2020
“Long in SIZE” means that I entered this trade and ADDED to the trade in size. 4/10 sizing (20% on the initial entry and 20% on the adds) for me is massive. This means I was 40% in this trade long of what my maximum trade size tolerance was, most trades
I don’t get above 30% because I am a position trader within the structure of the financial instrument. I need room to get out of the trade if it goes against me.
How? I know where the next support is. If I’m in a trade 30% size I can amp up my size on a very short term at the next support say another 30% for a bounce back to my entry and clear out. If that leg support doesn’t bounce or hold then I need to exit the swing trade. This is how I win a significant percentage of swing trades, I manage size and I know the playing field of trade (the structure of the stock chart support and resistance).
You can see in the swing trade alerts in the above tweet with screen shots that my first entry didn’t hold and the trading price of the stock continued down. This is an example of sizing properly, managing risk and knowing your charting structure to win big.
My second entry, “the adds” were as price was collapsing in to the peak timing of THE TIME CYCLE (see blue vertical line).
The sell off was the COVID fear sell off and we were managing over 60 equity swings so the alerts weren’t the most clear, however, we do and did provide other reporting, swing trade $STUDY sessions and various other subscriber guidance. The screen shots of the swing trade alert feed provided are just some examples.
As the trade started to go my way I started to trim profits and today trimmed profits to the point of only having 5% of my original size left because a key area of the stock structure is where trade was post market today.
You can see in the chart below the time cycles, the key horizontal Fibonacci levels for support and resistance, the diagonal Fibonacci trend lines and the entries (marked in green arrows) and the exit areas of the swing trade (marked with red arrows).
STONECO (STNE) closing 50% of profit runner 39.00 from 22.96 Mar 31, adds in to Apr 6 16-19s hold 5% of in size 40% swing trade. #swingtrading #timecycles $STNE
I encourage anyone that wants to learn how to increase their win rate swing trading (or even day trading) and returns on trades to increase your Profit and Loss to learn how to trade time cycles.
The power of these structured swing trade set ups we are working with can’t be understated
2x – 10x wins with high probability & managed process to protect downside. And we’re coding it too.
Do your DD, review the alert feed and see for yourself.
#SwingTrading $VERI
The power of these structured swing trade set ups we are working with can't be understated 🎯🏹🔥
2x – 10x wins with high probability & managed process to protect downside. And we're coding it too.
Do your DD, review the alert feed and see for yourself. #SwingTrading $VERI pic.twitter.com/g7hYaNjmeW
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 18, 2020
An example of time cycles in volatility is in the article below, we are currently writing a series of time cycle articles for our swing trade members to learn how this trading strategy can increase profitability significantly.
In Part 2 we unpack exactly how this trading strategy works – technical analysis and charting the structure of the stock, trading time-frames, time cycles, advanced Fibonacci Retrace levels, sizing, exits and entries, risk management and more.
As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime [email protected].
Peace and best.
Curt
Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):
- Swing Trading Performance Summary (Q4 2019, Q1 2020 Interim): Return %, Gain/Loss, Win/Loss Rate, Number of Trades.
- Swing Trading Alert Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 1543.93% Feb 1-Feb 21, 2020. $200,000.00 – $230,051.00 #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 64.45% Jan 1 – Jan 31, 2020. $200,000.00 – $208119.00. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 246.31% Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2019. $200,000.00 – $220,898.50. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 315.32% Nov 1 – Nov 30, 2019. $200,000.00 – $224,130.16. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 62.69% October 2019. $100,000.00 – $103,970.20. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss Annualized 355.22%. March 26 – June 28, 2017. $204,616.60 – $303,443.60. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading (Short Term Trades) Profit Loss Annualized 2,437.96%. April 3 – June 28, 2017. $17,354.69 – $37,713.16 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing and Day Trading Profit Loss – Annualized 957.90% Dec 26, 2016 – March 26, 2017. $100,000.00 – $180,347.88 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
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Article Topics: Swing Trading, Time Cycles, Stocks, How To, Trade, Alerts, Charting
Swing Trading Crude Oil – Next Leg of the Rally Has Started. A Review of Our Strategy.
Since crude oil traded to negative prices, we have been writing a series of articles for our subscribers (some are unlocked for the public) – they are below. This is a continuation of the article series for the current price rally.
Trading crude oil is difficult enough, the technical analysis we will review here (including price resistance, support, retracement levels, time cycles, symmetry) and various other topics such as; Surprise Jobs Numbers, Fed stimulus, Corona Virus, OPEC and more.
The technical analysis for the legs of the rally have been spot on (as of time of writing the public can refer to the first 3 unlocked articles below on Apr 29, Apr 30 and May 2 – eventually they will be all unlocked), the trick is trading it.
- May 29 – Protected: How to Trade Crude Oil – Recent Rally, Time Cycle, My Current Oil Swing Trade (Premium) $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- May 20 – Protected: How to Trade Current Price Decisions in Crude Oil (Premium) $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- May 19 – Protected: Oil Trading Newsletter (Premium): Charting, Alerts, Price Targets, Trading Strategies, Time Cycles. $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- May 15 – Protected: What’s Next? Crude Oil Trading Strategy – Trading Trend Line Resistance Break-Outs (PREMIUM) #CrudeOil #OOTT $CL_F $USO
- May 4 – Protected: The Symmetry and Time Cycle Price Targets of Next Move in Oil Trade | Part 4 (Premium) How We Daytrade Crude Oil.
- May 2 – BOOOM! Price and Time Exactly as Predicted Days in Advance | Part 3 – How We Daytrade Crude Oil #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO
- April 30 – “Excuse Me, While I Kiss The Sky”. Part 2 Insider’s Look at How We Daytrade Crude Oil (w/ real-time alert screen shots from oil trading room).
- April 29 – What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak.
In the most recent article on May 29 I was clear that I was starting to short the rally in advance of the key resistance in the 38.57 area on FX USOIL WTI and that doing so was not an easy trade and that if the rally continued in to the next leg that I would reverse the trade – this happened Friday morning.
From May 29:
The big challenge with this oil trade strategy is that I am trading against the wider trend, the trend is up and I am trying to position ahead of the turn down in oil, this is not a simple strategy to execute.
In the oil trading room and on the oil trade alerts feed Thursday / Friday I also had said that I was going to trade the rest of the decisions along with EPIC because I could see the decision coming.
Commentary from Oil Trading Chat Room and Oil Trade Alerts (there is also a live trading room with voice alerts and charting separate of this).
As the price of oil was nearing the key resistance area of the charting in this leg of trade EPIC software (as was I) was shorting the resistance. I was noting that a reversal trade was likely imminent.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 8:16 AM
EPIC is shorting 38.56 and will likely reverse above, booting up trading room.
And then when price breached the resistance area we reversed our short trade 3/30 size to 12/30 size long for the next leg of trade. Oil rallied on the day from there more than 100 points.
Reversal trades are tough, this morning I (and various EPIC V3 programs) reversed at 38.50-.70 an oil short 3/30 size for 12/30 size longs for a rocket ride🚀 Hit 39.65 on FX USOIL WTI trading 39.44. Wild day. We'll see what next brings.#OOTT $CL_F $USO #swingtrading #crudeoil pic.twitter.com/L9VpJkyQAG
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 5, 2020
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 8:40 AM
On the oil swing EPIC did reverse 12 contracts from 3 short released 4 so far trading 39.19, we’re in live room. Will release P&L as we go here so you can see what it is doing. 38.56 is the mark for sure for reversals.
Oil Trading Room Chat Screen Capture.
Oil trading room chat room commentary on the reversal from short oil to long oil at decision #oiltradingroom
EPIC V3.1.1 reversal in crude oil trade today from short to long position at key pivot for next leg up in rally. #oiltradingalerts
Strategy, Time Cycles, The Fed, The Virus.
The image below provides an idea of what our oil trading alerts feed looks like as trade progresses.
The strategy for swing trading the oil price rally was long until key resistance areas are near as with what occurred on Friday. The other important part of this current area of the rally is that there was a mid time cycle for volatility occurring around the week of June 3 so we were being extra cautious with our long bias.
The mid time cycle would be an opportune time for oil to reverse in the rally, however, the Fed has once again brought in stimulus, continues to signal all kinds of magic money and signals the possibility of more, the world is re-opening after the initial COVID scare, a surprise jobs number was posted Friday and Trump is talking up virus vaccines ready which is almost guaranteed to have the rally continue.
This will all be on close watch however this week because quite often Fed stimulus, magic money talk, news flow in general is timed perfectly within market cycles (they are not stupid) and this can unwind fast, so we will be vigilant being long in this current leg of the rally – to say the least.
Oil trading alert feed screen image of alerts and various lead trader technical analysis for the swing trade in oil.
So What is the Plan for the Next Part of the Trading Strategy?
Some of the questions an oil trader needs to consider in planning for the week coming;:
- Where is key resistance and support?
- How to size at key resistance and support?
- When to reverse the trade if it support is broken or resistance is breached?
- When to add to the trade or trim the trade?
- Key areas to trim size within each structure or range – position trading.
Lets Start With The Primary Simple Structure of the Oil Chart Trend Lines (for Part 1 public facing article).
Then in Part 2 for our Swing Trading and Oil Trade Subscribers we will go in to Swing Trading the Time Cycle Charts and Models (helps swing trade and position key areas of support and resistance, time and symmetry decisions which is key for sizing adds and trimming positions).
Then in Part 3 for our Pro Oil Day Traders (Oil Trade Subscribers) we will review the various EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Models for Day Trading and Swing Trading decisions on a variety of time frames.
Part 1 – Simple Oil Charts for Swing Trade Strategies
The oil chart below is from 11:14:37 AM Thursday, crude oil was just holding on to the support of both the trading box of the “gap” on the one hour chart and the lower uptrending support.
This is riveting to watch. Basic oil trend lines to watch.
And then Friday morning the surprise jobs number came out and oil rallied again to the top of the resistance on the simple trend line crude oil swing trading chart.
Shown below is the Simple Crude Oil Chart for the Gap and Trend lines.
Simple Crude Oil Chart for the Gap and Trend lines #crudeoilcharting
So what is the Plan for a Simple Swing Trading Strategy for Crude Oil here?
You should be long at the key support areas of the chart, the horizontal trend lines that make up the “gaps” historically on the 60 minute chart and more importantly at the up trending trend lines which oil traders are obviously using to size their trades.
At end of week trade on Friday oil price was left at the resistance area of the upper trend line with another possible upper uptrend trend line and trading box “gap” resistance above.
If oil fails to hold support or breaches the resistance areas of this chart you will need a plan – this we will cover in Part 2 and Part 3 of this article.
Below are some simple tips;
If oil breaches resistance look to the next resistance in your strategy and be sure that you are aware of how break-outs work paying close attention to previous resistance now support levels.
If oil fails support be sure you don’t get chopped up by death of a thousand cuts around the key support (in and out of trade taking small losses that add up) and you will need a plan for this also.
Knowing the order flow of intra day trade helps a lot (along with various other more technical indications which increase probability that you are on the right side of a move) which is why we have the oil machine trading software side of our business that our oil trading room and alert clients are alerted to. You can find the most recent EPIC white paper here: EPIC V3.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update | June 4, 2020 White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL.
In Part Two, “Protected: Part 2 of 3 – Swing Trading Crude Oil: Key Chart Considerations (Time Cycles, Symmetry, Support and Resistance Levels for Sizing)” we will look at more charting and strategies for our Swing Trading and Oil Trade Subscribers including time cycles, other chart time-frames, symmetry, support and resistance, sizing and more.
In Part Three, “Protected: Part 3 – Algorithmic Crude Oil Trading Strategies (Day Trading, Swing Trading, Position Trading, Time Frames, Models)” for our Pro Oil Day Traders (Oil Trade Subscribers) we will review the various EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Models for Day Trading and Swing Trading decisions on a variety of time frames.
As always, any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
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Article Topics; How to, Swing Trade, Crude Oil, Oil Trading Strategy
Itinerary for Day One – Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil | Special Webinar Event | Jan 5 & 12: 12 PM-4 PM (Two Part Series Available Online Live or Recorded Video) #OOTT $CL_F $USO
Hello oil traders!
Today we start a new webinar series for how to trade crude oil. This series will cover everything I know and how our EPIC v3 machine trade is coded with 8770 instructions to achieve current returns of 80% – 140% per annum (projected based on current performance) and more than 90% win rate.
Today’s itinerary is simple, I will show you how I prepare for success in my trading week for crude oil
- We will review all the charts I use for oil trade. Algorithmic and conventional charting.
- Review of fundamentals and news flow in global oil markets.
- Key resistance and support areas of trade to watch.
This will be an organic insiders look in to how I prepare for oil trade each week. I have always coached and taught this way, completely organic. Many of my students have told me they appreciate the approach.
So you will get a first hand look at how I access the charting, update the charting, prepare my oil trading plan for the week and more.
The next webinar in this series will begin to cover more specific rules of trade for daytrading and swing trading oil.
Important Notes:
I am located in a large home and my office area is right in the middle of the main living area, so be prepared for back ground noise. The next location I will be sure to position myself in a quiet office in the home.
I intend to cover everything I know and teach you about trading crude oil in the best way I can. To accomplish this, I will be doing two primary webinars, one this week (today) and one next week the same time. HOWEVER, if there is more content to cover than time allows I will supplement with more webinars that I will record in my private time in the evenings and I will forward these videos to the class also.
In the event of an internet outage or some other unforeseen event, I will re-do the webinar of the day in the evening hours between 1 AM EST and 5 AM EST and send that video to the students.
Questions will be handled via email, send in your questions to [email protected] and I will answer the questions live in the webinar.
Thank you,
Curtis
If You Missed Out, You Can Order Webinar Recordings Here:
Webinar Article Promo Detail:
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Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.
Trade Coaching:
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For intensive training in crude oil trade attend one of our trading boot camps (available for in person attendees and online).
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CME – E-mini Crude Oil Futures Contract Specs.
Article Topics; crude, oil, trading, webinar, teaching, coaching, strategies, how to, itinerary
Intensive Crude Oil Trade Training Webinar. Also Available on Video Only If You Cannot Attend.
This may be one of the last opportunities the public will have to learn about our crude oil trading success, how we developed software to outperform our best oil traders and how you can use our in depth knowledge to your advantage.
Spend Two Sessions With Me Jan 5 & 12, 2020 12 PM – 4 PM Eastern Time – I will be hosting a crude oil trading webinar. I will cover everything I know about crude oil trade in a one-time 8 hour (over two sessions) special webinar event.
The webinar will cover my strategies for conventional and algorithmic oil trade and charting, intra-day trading, short term swing trading, longer term swing trading, trade sizing, time cycles, key set-ups and much more.
I will explain in detail how I maintain a win rate of better than 90% in crude oil trade (live recorded in our oil trading room and live alerted to our members).
This Special Webinar Series will also cover our EPIC v3 Machine Trade success, an insiders look in to how we developed the software and why it is on track to achieve 80% – 140% annual return and a win rate of more than 90%. See recent EPIC v3 white paper here:
Limited online attendance of 25 persons to allow me to take questions and converse as needed to be sure we cover the trading concepts in detail.
Current member clients of Compound Trading Group Oil Trade Alerts / Bundle or Live Trading Room cost: 99.00. Email office [email protected] direct and Jen will send you a discounted invoice.
To Register for the Crude Oil Trading Webinar Click Here.
The 8 hour special webinar event cost for non members: 799.00.
Early bird registrants – before midnight Jan 3 receive 50% off (399.00). Use Promo Code: early
Current oil trading room clients 99.00 (email office for direct invoice).
Attendees will also receive a free video copy of the webinar via email after we’re done so that you can study the in depth knowledge long in to the future. The video will also be available online at our store (for non attendees).
Attendees (including video only purchasers) will also receive 2 week free access to our Live Oil Trading Room (value 500.00).
For complimentary trade articles, click this link: Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil.
For more information about our trading room, alert, coaching services menu click this link: TRADING SERVICES PRICE TABLES
To Register for the Crude Oil Trading Webinar Click Here
Can’t Attend Online? Order the video only here Crude Oil Trading Webinar Video (799.00) and receive two weeks of free access to our oil trading room (Value 500.00).
Questions? Email [email protected] and Jen or I will answer as needed.
Look forward to seeing you there and a prosperous 2020 oil trading year!
Subscribe (Reports, Alerts, Trading Room):
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Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.
Trade Coaching:
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
For intensive training in crude oil trade attend one of our trading boot camps (available for in person attendees and online).
Trading Futures Contracts:
CME – Crude Oil Futures Contract Specs.
CME – E-mini Crude Oil Futures Contract Specs.
Article Topics; crude, oil, trading, webinar, teaching, coaching, strategies, how to
Crude Oil Day Trading Session From Oil Trading Room – Trading Set-up Short Waterfall Strategy.
If you want to learn how to day trade crude oil, or if you want to win more often and already are an oil day trader this post with live video from our oil trading room will provide you with insight to how I day trade crude oil.
The planning and preparation I perform prior to every trade (such as reviewing support and resistance on all time frames and charting), the signals I watch for and what the water-fall short trade set-up looks like and specifically how to day trade the price action.
This is a very detailed video and I highly recommend oil traders study it for maximum consistency to your trading gains.
Voice broadcast starts at 1:23 on video.
At start of this video there are announcements about what we are doing (our staff work in progress) and general view of markets and how the trade of equities (swing trades) is affected by nearby resistance on oil charting.
Topics of announcements include the coding updates for the machine trading, status of algorithm reports, the huge month in our oil trading last month (up 63% in one month), trade alerts, digital platform for our clients to watch machine trade real-time, swing trade timing for equity and various algorithm model swing trade positioning in this time cycle, why the machine trading can beat my overall return performance by 10 times, coding of other algorithm models, the publishing of the rule-set modules for oil trading (mechanical human executed & machine traded, intra-day swings, longer term swings and daytrading).
The Pull Back In Oil Trade.
At 9:20 I discuss the trade action in oil as we trade near key resistance in oil. We should see 53 and possibly 52’s and even more down.
Trade Signals to Watch For Positioning Swing Trades, Intra-Day Swings and Day Trading..
When trade hits support for a proper bounce we know when machines are in trade because the trade action becomes really clean within the models. This predictable trade action provides a signal for when to start longer swing trade entries, helps us with intra day swing trades within the EPIC trading model and provides for precise day trading on the one minute model.
Trend Line Support on Watch.
At 10:30 on video the basing trend-line on the 4 hour chart is reviewed as support. Conclusion of this pull back in oil should come soon. I am expecting at latest Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Watch for violent trade up / down (stops taken out), most likely down first so I am positioning my bias for that scenario first. Likely a sharp down and then sharp up and then the mid point between the two points should be the decision area.
Tomorrow is EIA so this could be your timing or likely before end of week is likely for the spike up and down and then the pivot decision goes in to Sunday night futures.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/kn9o1TRw-4-hr-concept/
Basing trendline on 4 hr should conclude soon up or down for new trend in crude oil trade. #oil #chart #support
One Minute Crude Oil Day Trading Model.
At 12:48 I discuss trade on the one minute day trading model. The problem in trade as we get close to key resistance decision is trade becomes sloppy. So I show you how to trade the model if you need to trade and you don’t want to wait for the decision on oil trade trend direction.
The indicators are late so you have to act on price prior.
How to Trade a Key Intra-Day Break to Down Side (Waterfall) or Upside. The Oil Day Trade Starts Live on Video Here.
At 14:00 the intra-day possible break to downside in trade is discussed.
Planning and Preparation for Your Day Trade – Know Your Key Support Area on Charting Prior to Entering a Trade.
- When trade on the one minute charting looks like a break to downside (or upside) is possible I first go to the EPIC model for key support or resistance. 53.52 is at mid quad on model, so that is support to watch.
- At 16:24 on video 53.00 is a support on the daily chart (a Fibonacci support on the oil daily chart and the 20 MA support).
- 51.13 is next support and 57.31 for Feb 20 is the upside scenario.
- My bias is pull back and then go again.
- 53.00 – 55.50 is a likely pivot area until a conclusion occurs in this trade area.
-
Oil trading room screen shot shows 53.00 support daily chart Fibonacci oil daily chart and 20 MA
- At 18:00 on the video the weekly oil chart is reviewed.
- The price extension support and resistance, the 20 MA 57.00 and 200 MA 52.30 (as your broad trading range) and trend lines on the weekly charting is reviewed. 53.26 price extension is serious support and price under that is an obvious short.
Know Where the Price Targets Are for the Machines.
- Discussed is the end of week and EIA price targets on the EPIC algorithm model. The algorithmic channel and quad support and resistance areas.
Preparing My Short Order Day Trade in Oil Live on Trading Room Video.
- At 20:00 on video I get my trading execution ready.
The Trade Pattern Set-up (Signal).
At 20:30 on video – When you see this pattern (trade signal) on the one minute charting model be very careful to cut your trade fast if the machines kick in the other direction (long).
Trade When Signals Are Most Predictable.
I prefer trading oil when the trend is clear and the machines are in it. Reports say over 80% of oil traders lose. This is largely why. Trade gets sloppy and then frustrates the trader.
Money in crude oil trading is made in the trend. Near resistance trading can mind mess you.
This is why I close my DWT short swing trade when we got near key resistance.
Winning is Important.
Not only is losing bad for your account but it is even more important for your mind. Your subconscious needs to know it wins. The subconscious is powerful.
Day Trading Model.
Location of trading boxes around three pivot areas of the one minute crude oil day trading chart model.
24:00 on video pivot resistance is discussed.
Pivot Resistance on the One Minute Oil Chart Model.
I am short bias to 53, 52.75 then 51.20 is possible.
Indicator Signals.
At 24:45 on the one minute you have stochastic RSI increasing and price that is basing, typically that means down next or even a possible waterfall short trade set-up.
The Risk-Reward (the Math of the Trade) On a Down-Side Break Set-up.
At 25:20 I start to discuss the math of the trade. You can take the short side trade and if price turns on you then you take a maximum cut of 16 ticks on the trade, but if price gets you on the right side and continues to confirm short then your win will be much bigger return.
Short Trade Executed – Play by Play.
At 25:42 on the video at 53.77 my short trade execution is done live.
Location on crude oil chart of short trade entry for day trade on chart below.
Location on crude oil chart of short trade entry for day trade.
Short crude oil trade alert screen shot of member Twitter alert feed is shown below at 53.77.
Short crude oil trade alert screen shot of member Twitter alert feed.
At 26.42 on video the buys came in at the Fibonacci support on the one minute model shown (red arrow).
Buys came in to oil trade intr day at the Fibonacci support on the one minute model shown (red arrow).
At 26.50 buy side trades are testing the 20 MA resistance on 1 minute chart.
At 28:34 on video trade is over the 20 MA trading 53.83 hit resistance on the pivot on the 1 min just under 50 MA.
Indicators are turning up now. Started to look like a reversal trade but I stayed with the plan because trend on the day was down and I didn’t want to be chopped up.
Trade hit 53.87 before it turned back down (so I was 10 ticks off side at that point). Technically trade got a penny or two over trading box resistance but I held because the bulls needed to have big buys and momentum to kick in to fight the daily trend which was pressure in trade.
At 32.35 the 4 hour chart is reviewed and my target for the risk reward to down side. The reward potential was much better in my thinking.
The EPIC model confirms also.
At 33:40 the weekly chart shows a good risk reward also.
Protecting you capital is key and trading for risk reward on trend for the time frame.
30 minute candle turn timing is discussed.
The pivot test continues.
At 39:13 on the video the technical area of key support for the day trade is reviewed. 53.58 is the next Fib down so you want trade to break under that and hold under 53.58 and if it doesn’t you’re best closing the trade for a scalp. This is purely a math play. You will win 50% and win you do win you’ll either get a decent scalp or a larger 5 x risk reward win.
This is purely a math play. You will win 50% and win you do win you’ll either get a decent scalp or a larger 5 x risk reward win.
At 42:47 volatility VIX is reviewed and how I want volatility to start rising intra-day.
At 45:28 the importance of trading in a zen state vs. frustration is discussed.
At 46:00 trading on bias based on technical set-ups and protecting your capital (accepting it quickly when you are wrong) is key to trading success.
At 48.00 the inverse head and shoulders that technicians on Twitter were talking about is discussed relative to the risk reward on the 30 minute chart price target.
The price target for the short oil trade is shared in the oil trading chat room private server.
The price target for the short oil trade is shared in the oil trading chat room private server.
How I Knew Where to Close the Short Oil Trade for a Win.
At 53:15 on the video is top of the hour with price falling and trade was under the key support resistance 54.59 and we needed it to hold under for staying in the trade short.
The price action here on the video is important to watch close here if you want to learn how to do this.
At 57:00 on video I explain that you could short again here, I didn’t, but price did come off and it would have been a decent short trade.
Trade did not stay under resistance at pivot so I closed the oil short trade for a win.
Trade did not stay under resistance at pivot so I closed the oil short trade for a win.
If You Want a Win Rate 90%+ DayTrading Crude Oil – I Highly Recommend Listening to this Part of The Video – IT IS KEY.
I continue to comment on how the trade continues to set up discussing the technical areas to watch.
If you want to learn about specifically where your support and resistance areas are on the one middle model BE SURE TO WATCH THE VIDEO HERE (from 57:00 minutes on video forward).
If you watch the price action and my commentary you will see how precise the machines trade the one minute model – THIS WILL HELP YOU TIME YOUR ENTRIES AND WHEN TO CLOSE. VERY IMPORTANT.
Below is a screen shot of the oil trade alert feed – closing the trade for a win.
Closed short trade – oil trade alert screen shot of alert feed.
Below is the Trade Executed Live in Oil Trading Room.
Peace and best,
Curt
Email me with any questions you may have [email protected].
Recent Learning Posts and Videos (most are premium member locked posts).
Feb 4 – January 2019 Oil Trading Alert P/L.
Jan 31 – Day Trade Timing Strategies for Crude Oil Trade Around Time Cycles and EIA.
Jan 29 – Trading the Main Support and Resistance on EPIC Algorithm Model. How to Post.
100 Tick Move | Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies | Trade Model Support and Resistance.
Jan 27 – Premium Member Private Post (Weekly Reporting & Guidance).
Oil Trade Strategies | Day Trading Crude Oil | Premium Member Weekly Guidance.
Jan 22 – Compounding Gains Day Trading Crude Oil.
Not Just Concept: Day Trading Crude Oil 10K – 1 Million in 24 Mos at 10 Ticks Day (Compound Gains).
Jan 20 – Weekly Crude Oil Trading Strategy Guidance Private Post for Premium Members.
Oil Trade Strategy | Day Trading Crude Oil Futures | Premium Weekly Guidance.
Jan 19 – A detailed inside look at our day traders’ strategies in crude oil day trading room.
How I Day Trade Crude Oil +90% Win Rate | Friday’s 158 Tick Move | The Strategy We Used To Trade It.
If you have any questions send me a note please!
Best and peace!
Curt
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).
Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.
Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, How To, Trade, Oil Trading Room, Strategy, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO
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Proven Day Trading Strategies For Crude Oil Futures Contracts (CL).
Included Below and In Trading Room Video:
Live Trading Room Video Footage Jan 9, 2019. Trade Alert Screen Shots. Charts I Used to Win. Voice Broadcast. Screen Share. Chat Logs. Trade Coach Advice.
Five trades, Five wins, 90 ticks in just over an hour of trade yesterday in live trading room. If you traded with me listening to my voice alerts in the room, trading 1 oil futures contract size, you could pay for our oil alerts for approximately 6 months or our live trading room for one month. In one hour of learning (approximate).
I want to start this post with a personal note – something that I feel deeply about:
One of the things many of my trading students ask me is,
“How do YOU day trade crude oil, how do you SPECIFICALLY make decisions to get in to a trade and close each trade?”
I understand why / what they are asking because I had to learn how to trade to win myself, so of course I understand.
There are a few things many students don’t understand in the beginning. These and other things can become road blocks to success if not learned quickly.
They are critical points to understand, accept and have as a part of your very being.
You have to get these trading rules deep down in your psyche.
Understand These Rules Before Day Trading Crude Oil (there are more, but these are what I am most often dealing with lately when in coaching sessions).
1. When You Lose – Lose Small. This Requires Clicking The Mouse. Now.
2. Protect Your Capital At All Cost – There’s Always Another Day. Click The Mouse.
3. When You Think You’re Good, You’re Not There Yet.
4. Good Enough Is Possible With A Systematic Rules Based Proven Process. Focus Only On Proven Systems. There Are People That Learn To Win Fast. It Can Be Done. Ask Me Who AND I WILL CONNECT YOU.
5. If You Follow A Proven Winning Process and You Lose A Trade, DO NOT Think About It.
6. When You Don’t Follow The Process, STOP TRADING, Dig Deep in Review Before Trading Again, Even If It Takes Days.
7. Shut Off ALL Noise And Focus. DO NOT TRADE When Emotionally Challenged. Focus Is An Absolute Must.
8. Never Listen To Anyone That Doesn’t Encourage You In This Journey.
9. Never Blame A Loss On Anything Other Than These Two Possibilities:
a) You didn’t follow the process or b) The process was followed and sometimes the process doesn’t work – now move on quick.
10. Execute Your Trading To A Proven Process Equals Good Enough.
11. Good Enough Equals You Are Now In The Top Tier Category of Earners.
12. Good Enough (in trading) Equals Freedom. Many Freedoms That Few Ever Experience.
13. Prepare For Personal War With Self. Pride, Self, I Has To Die To Be Good Enough.
14. Do Not Give Up. Never Give Up. You Will Thank Yourself On The Other Side.
15. Never Is A Big Word. Never Means Never. Think About That Before Starting.
15 RULES to TRADING (inspired via trade coaching session I just completed, there's more, but here's 15 for the traders learning). I have to do this, hope it helps someone out there, here goes…
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) January 11, 2019
We recently went on our own learning journey coding software to machine trade oil. When we embarked on the project I thought I was an expert oil trader, I thought I knew how to trade oil.
What I learned was how little I actually knew about how oil actually trades and why. The structure of the instrument.
In short, our machine trading software now has to make 2559 decisions to trigger a trade (of course this will be adjusted for risk reward tolerance and more as we move on in our development).
My point – I learned 2559 rules for trading crude oil and I now know that I can’t possibly make perfect decisions on every trade every time. I can’t process that many decisions instantly and under pressure – it isn’t possible.
I need a system that is simple, that may put me on the losing side “sometimes” but if I lose I lose small. A system that is easy to become an expert at. A system that puts me in the top 10%.
I don’t need to be in the top 1% like our software mandate. Top 10% puts me in a great position.
This series of posts will teach you how to use our tools in such a way that you can easily be in that top tier of traders.
Respect Your Opponent. You Will Get Your As* Kicked. You Need To Learn Proven Methods – Fast.
To the same point but I like to address it as a separate point, if you want to trade (any trading on any markets)… here is what you are actually doing when you learn how to trade oil or any other trading… you are stepping in to the game, on the ice, in to the ring, the court with the best in the world. It is a zero sum game.
The best traders make their money taking your money.
Imagine never playing basketball and playing with the best in the world – instantly. That’s trading. You only need a computer and a trade account at your broker and you are now trading against the best traders in the world.
Why am I addressing this first before showing you how I trade oil?
A few reasons, one is that you need to respect it for what it is, trading against the best means that you are going to lose more than you win at first – my job is to equip you with tools only the best in the world have, this will help your learning curve to win faster and lose less when you do lose.
You need to learn fast how to limit losses. If you use a rules based trading system like I am teaching (in this series of posts, on the videos, in the live trading room, in newsletter reports, premarket reports, mid day reviews in trading room, in Discord chat where I share guidance, during private coaching and at coaching events and more…)
IF YOU ACTUALLY dig in to the documentation that I have been producing for more than two years now – you will learn a process of trade that will equip you to trade with the worlds best.
Mix our knowledge, tools, and strategies for trading oil in with what you already know – use what works for you and ignore what doesn’t.
How do I know that you can trade against the worlds best and actually do that moderately soon?
I have many students that were red that are now winning.
I also know that I am a much better technician than trader, if I can win anyone can win.
I have been documenting our journey of algorithm development, software development and live trading for over two years and we win. We’ve done it publicly, we document it, we trade live and we are one of the more transparent trading groups you can study.
Many of our winners have now agreed to share their trades in the live trading room, they rarely lose – they are expert day traders and swing traders with a long history of winning.
But it isn’t easy, you have no choice, you have to dig in and learn.
If you are a member and you need one of our historical blog posts unlocked send an email to Jen at [email protected] and she’ll send you the access code. It’s critical you put in the time to learn.
That’s my stern lecture, now lets to it and see what happened in Wednesday crude oil trade in the trading room and hopefully it will assist you in becoming financially independent and on to a life better equipped for true freedom.
The Live Video from The Trading Room
Video Transcript Summary With Trade Alert Feed Screen Shots and Chat Room Screen Shots:
Note: The screen shots of the Twitter feed are Eastern New York Time and the Oil Chat Room screen shots are an hour later (I am trading from the Dominican Republic).
16:48 on trading room video voice broadcast starts 928 AM right before open.
Prior to this on the video I was reviewing charts on screen preparing for market open after sending out the premarket report to our subscribers (no voice).
My bias in morning trade was for oil to see resistance for a short term pull back, resistance to come in to SPY (over sold to over supply) and a possible near term upside in VIX, Essentially we were entering a possible short term inflection after oil running since Dec 24, 2018.
Also EIA was scheduled for 10:30 AM so this was a consideration for my daytrades.
You can listen to video to get an idea of what I was watching, there is lots of blank space because I don’t broadcast for entertainment like many do, I provide only guidance and trade information as absolutely required because many of my clients are private equity funds that need only actionable guidance. No noise. We have a separate chat room for that.
To learn about the charting and indications I was using for this five win day correlate the time on the screen shots below (of the alerts) and to the time on the video at bottom right of the screen.
At 21:00 mins on the video I’m monitoring oil trade nearing the 200 MA on the weekly chart.
Then I’m scrolling to the daily chart model and the 240 min charting model.
At 22:00 on the video I explain the price target on oil as 52.67 if trade holds over 51.15 intra day. It was trading 51.29 on West Texas crude.
At 22:20 I review oil trade daily charting to correlate the 50 MA resistance to the price target described from the 240 minute chart at 22:00 on the video.
At 22:27 I review the 200 MA on the weekly and how the simple daily algorithmic model chart 50 MA and the 240 Minute chart resistance (bottom of trading box) correlate with the resistance on the weekly trend line chart.
At 22:40 I am reviewing the Volatility VIX daily chart support area (Bollinger bands) and how inflections can concur also for trade verification.
At 23:00 I show our traders how to bring the trading structure down to the daytrading level for shorter time frames for daytrading levels of support and resistance. This is key to your trading skill set for day trading crude oil – to be able to do this on all the charting on all time frames “on the fly”. This is your daytrading zone. VERY VERY IMPORTANT. We have a master class series of videos (20 hours) available at 1599.00 to learn how to do this like a pro.
At 1:17:00 on the video we are getting ready for the EIA report with guidance for our traders.
At 1:21:27 I am reviewing various charts for support as trade came under pressure when the weekly oil report EIA was released.
At 1:22:00 I re-chart the 240 minute oil chart again for a lower time frame to prepare for a day trade I can see coming in trade intra-day.
At 1:23:48 on video (10:36 AM Eastern New York time) I explain exactly where the next support to watch is on 1 minute chart as oil sells off.
At this point I am watching the Stochastic RSI very close, the MACD and the Squeeze Momentum indicator on the 1 minute chart. They are the three indicators at the bottom of the chart you see in the video. Stochastic then MACD then SQZMOM at bottom.
I’m looking for Stoch RSI to turn up, MACD near a turn up and SQZMOM to turn a darker red indicating a possible turn up.
At 1:26:34 the initial buys start to come in to trade (short covering likely also), I continue to watch.
At 1:32:30 this is a VERY CRITICAL PART OF THE VIDEO – I BEGIN CHARTING THE “On the fly” TRADING STRUCTURE ON THE 1 MINUTE CHART IN PREPARATION FOR TRADE.
Then I explain my trading plan.
At 1:46:30 I am continuing the charting of the trading structure of the 1 minute chart because I know the trade is getting closer.
At 1:48:40 on the video (11:00 AM Eastern time) I am charting the legs of the chart structure for preparation of trade.
At 1:50:00 on the video the bulls are starting to buy and I am frantically trying to finish my on the fly charting model for trade.
At 2:02:38 the machines are kicking in at the bottom of the trading box (resistance test) on the 1 minute chart model and I comment to it to trading room.
At 2:03:20 is the turn of the 15 minute candle and I start my position at 51.20 and alert the trade entry to the private member Twitter feed per below, the oil chat room and verbally in the oil trading room.
The remaining time on this video shows you in detail the charting I am using and as I trigger in and out of each of the five trades for five wins.
The screen shots below show you the alerts that went out to members.
There are many, many other indicators, charts and models I use to trade oil – this video shows some and will help any trader that really wants to dig in and get serious to be on the winning side on a regular non stressful basis.
Live Twitter Alert Feed Screen Shots
Below is the 9:38 AM alert from EPIC the Oil Algorithm Twitter Feed (Oil trade alerts) for support and resistance areas on crude oil chart (sent to members just after open while we were waiting for a decision / direction in trade).
Crude Oil Trading Alert. From trading room, support 51.19 and 51.04 resistance on West Texas 51.90, 52.53 – 62.68 (primary) trading 51.355 intra day
Below is a screen shot of the Twitter alert feed – it was my first trade position of the day alerted to the live feed and broadcast in the trading room live at 11:16 AM.
“Oil trading alert – Selling 51.21 If it reverses I am long to 61.64 at 51.27 ish.”
The trade was a short position with a possibility of reversal.
Oil trading alert – Selling 51.21 If it reverse I am long to 61.64 at 51.27 ish.
There were a few other tweets on the feed about reversal areas and support / resistance and then the alert for closing the trade.
The trade reversed and we won and closed here with this alert on the trade – out of reversal long 51.60
The trade reversed and we won and closed here with this alert on the trade – out of reversal long 51.60
Then at 11:33 AM this alert went out to the private member feed, “This was the second trade position of the day in crude oil, alerts as follows long 51.67 t o 51.87 PT then 52.07” – it was also broadcast live in trading room for members.
This was the second trade position of the day in crude oil, alerts as follows long 51.67 t o 51.87 PT then 52.07
Below is the screen shot of the first price target being hit (on second oil trade of day) and my alert to trim 50% of the long position.
At 1135 AM the first price target from the original alert was hit, we trimmed half the position in oil long trim 51.87 50%
After some other alerts about stops and the like at 11:37 AM I closed the oil trade at 52.06 per alert in screen shot below for another win.
After some other alerts about stops I closed the oil trade at 52.06 per alert in screen shot.
At 1147 AM Jan 9 I was alerting the third crude oil trade of the day as follows “selling 52.45 tight” per short selling screen shot below.
At 1147 AM Jan 9 I was alerting the third crude oil trade of the day as follows selling 52.45 tight.
After some guidance comments alerted to members, at 1150 AM I was covering the short in oil and put the third win for the day on the books alerted as cover 52.21.
At 1150 AM I was covering the short in oil and put the third win for the day on the books alerted as cover 52.21.
Confirming swing trade position in oil for members “yes, holding DWT short swing, want to see a pull back for size in to that.”
Confirming swing trade position in oil for members – yes, holding DWT short swing, want to see a pull back for size in to that.
The fourth trade I was “selling 51.98 & 52.05 tight careful” at 12:24 PM and covered quick at 51.87 because I didn’t like the action for the next win.
selling 51.98 & 52.05 tight careful – CURT
At 1227 PM I alerted the close of the trade as covered 51.87 looking fr another entry #crude #oil #alert
At 1227 PM I alerted the close of the trade as covered 51.87 looking fr another entry #crude #oil #alert
My fifth trade was a 3 tick win (that I won’t post here) and that was my oil trading session for the day.
Below are the screen shots from the Discord private server oil chat room (guidance and alerts I was providing members in chat room).
Note: the live trading room video is a trading room where I use voice broadcast and screen sharing for charting etc and the Discord room is for chat to keep our live trading room actionable for the funds that attend the room.
screen shots from the Discord private server oil chat room (guidance and alerts I was providing members in chat room).
Oil Chat Room Transcript for Alerts:
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 12:15 PM
selling 51.21 short term
tight stops
if it reverses I’m long to 51.64 at 51.27 ish
50.82 is a support area, 50.64, 50.46
out of reversal long 51.60
long 51.67 t o 51.87 PT then 52.07
sorry happened fast
trim 51.87 50%
stop at 51.75
closed 52.06
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 12:47 PM
selling 52.45 tight
52.13 1st target
closed 52.21
yes, holding DWT short swing, want to see a pull back for size in to that
I will publish my active crude oil trading session from today so members can study how I chart the crude oil daytrading models on the fly and why / how I’m structuring the swing trading and day trading side even though the trades can be opposite on different time frames. $CL_F $USO $USOIL $UWT $DWT #Oil #Trading
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:24 PM
selling 51.98 & 52.05 tight careful
51.48 target but this is a risky short intra
covered 51.87 looking fr another entry
5 trades – 5 wins.
Any questions don’t hesitate to reach out anytime. Email me now [email protected].
For a similar article I wrote click here: One of The Best Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies – 200 MA One Minute Chart Time Frame #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
Peace and best,
Curt, Lead Trader. Compound Trading Group.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our lead traders that include learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Our Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).
Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.
Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Best, Crude, Oil, Day Trading, Signals, Strategy, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO
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