05
Aug 2019

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3. 

Machine Trading, Office Memorandum , , , Curt Melonopoly

RE: Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

Today we reverted back to the version 3 software and have abandoned the version 4 software.

The architecture for the version 4 software has too much downside risk (it is too unpredictable in varied market action), even with the possibility of ongoing tweaks (updates). There is no guarantee that we would achieve a state of operation that minimizes downside risk to an appropriate level.

As such we will only be running version 3 going forward and discontinuing version 4 development at least until we can somehow find a way of improving our subscription management software.

Version 3 provided low downside risk with about 83% ROI in real-world testing lasting just over a month (longer duration trading will determine the exact return). In the first month of testing with v3 there was only one day with draw down and it was about -0.2%.

Version 3 also provides for low risk even in unpredictable markets because its architecture does not allow for accumulation type trade positions within a range (it does not accumulate or hold positions), which version 4 did. Version 3 hits key support and resistance with appropriate size and trails out quickly. It is a precision trade architecture design. The version 4 architecture is more designed for positioning within a range, with order flow of entities it identifies as dominant. The two versions are considerably different structurally.

Version 3 will lose sometimes, but will lose very small at all times because it is not an accumulation architecture. This was proven out in real world testing. We estimate that on average over a number of days that about 1 in 10 trading days v3 will see a draw down on average equal to or less than its average day gains.

In early testing version 1 software ran at about 20% ROI, version 2 at 40% and version 3 at just over 80%. All approximate and all short term testing lasting less than 60 days. The v4 software may have reached the ROI goal of 160%, but the road to that goal is too volatile.

Here forward version 3 of the crude oil machine trade software will run and follow-up updates will provide additional information about the architecture of the decisions the v3 software makes to trade so successfully so that our clients that trade manually can use some of the rule-set for their own trading.

And lastly, to the questions I have received about future considerations for v4, the answer is no. At this juncture we would rather enjoy the fruits of our labor as it has been a near 3 year development process (an expensive one) and at some point we must settle in with what we have, what we know works, and what provides the lowest down-side risk.

V3 at approximately 80% ROI per year is world class software and world class is better than good enough.

Again, thanks for being a part of the journey.

Any questions email us [email protected].

Curt

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Article Topics: crude oil, machine, trading, software, memorandum

 

04
Mar 2019

Machine Learning Trade Software Advisory | Crude Oil: Trade Frequency

Machine Trading, Trade Alerts , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Crude Oil Trade Software Advisory:

This advisory is a follow up / adjustment to the advisory at this link:

Machine Learning Trade Software Advisory | Crude Oil: (1) Frequency (2) IDENT Program

Trade Frequency.

This is to advise that the crude oil machine trade software will now trigger all active protocols at a higher frequency as of 6:00 PM Monday March 4, 2019.

For example, on most occasions it will now fire trades at the majority of 1 minute model support and resistance and at most EPIC 30 Min Model support and resistance (quads, channels, mid channel, mid quad).

The various software trading protocols (based on specific models) will be distributed in 24 – 28 hours to stakeholders. There are a total of 42 and approximately 16 that we are currently running (on time-frames from 1 minute to 1 week charting models).

This adjustment to the software “throttle” will increase frequency considerably (approximately 160 – 200 executions or more possible per month).

The win rate will be lower than the previous two months but a higher return monthly is expected.

The minimum bar is an 80% win rate and a progressive increase in monthly return as software is tweaked, and an average draw down less than 12 ticks (3 – 16 ticks depending on the protocol). Average win greater than 12 ticks.

Staff will (when time allows) alert the trade protocol details to the trade alert feeds on Twitter and Discord private oil server.

Thank you.

 

22
Feb 2019

Machine Learning Trade Software Advisory | Crude Oil: (1) Frequency (2) IDENT Program

Crude Oil Day Trading, Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (EPIC), Machine Trading, News, Press Releases , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

February 22, 2019

RE: EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Machine Trading Software Advisory Specific to Trade Frequency Protocol “Throttle” and IDENT Program Description.

We are now near two months of running the machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts (CL).

During the testing phase, which will continue for some time as we adjust code instructions, the execution of trades by the program is “throttled”. Meaning specifically that the frequency of trade was specifically limited to the highest and then was adjusted to a higher win probability threshold.

The result of the initial testing achieved near 100% win side trade accuracy, but less than optimum trade frequency. Increased frequency may (will in our estimation) return a higher ROI – assuming the win rate percentage achieved is high enough. This of course is a complicated calculation within the code that reflects the win side average per trade return vs. loss side average per trade. In short, the loss side is programmed to be less (limited by way of higher frequency executions – tight stop triggers) and when trade is on win side the trade profit is increased via trade size that is progressively trimmed as the trade is in progress. Refer to private Discord oil trade chat server for real-time discussion between developers and traders for more detail.

An article is available at this link that displays some of (actionable by a human trader executing trades manually) the oil machine trading results, much of which was throttled considerably and much of which had human intervention – in other words, had the software been released to execute totally autonomous the returns would have been considerably higher – but we are testing. The highlighted trades returned a 63% increase on the “large account” test for the one month duration. This achievement was specifically to the alerted trades, not the higher frequency machine trades.

The “alerted trades” meaning that which could be considered actionable alerts to our subscribers. The machine software executed many times more trades but our current alert system platform (Twitter private member feed, Discord private chat server, Oil trading room live broadcast) cannot for the most part distribute alerts fast enough for the higher frequency trades to be considered actionable by a human executing trades manually (a trader digital platform is on the team WIP to remedy this). In consideration also is that the higher frequency trade protocols could easily be reverse engineered to expose the proprietary protocols under our IDENT program – this remains a discussion point internally and how the higher frequency trades will be shared is in question (more on that at a later date).

The “throttle” was initially set to approximately 20 x and over the course of fifty days progressively lowered to function near 10 x with less and less human intervention along the way. 20 x for example would result in twenty times less trade frequency than would otherwise be if the software was not “throttled” at all.

Today (Feb 22 at 2:11 AM EST) the code was adjusted considerably to be “throttled” to be less than 10x and will be lowered progressively over the next 7 trade days. The win rate vs. return as it would be calculated over a month is the achievement bar (goal) in focus. More on this objective and other clarification in near future updates.

Market condition will also result in variance of execution frequency as will holiday weeks specific to the model(s) divergence.

The main takeaway: In to next week the frequency of trade will be considerably higher with an objective being to find the most optimum throttle setting to achieve the highest return. The win rate is expected to near 80% and not near 100% and the return on equity on a monthly basis to increase considerably.

The 63% monthly return (monthly return in this instance meaning account equity size increase as it relates to alerted trades only) is a favorable start, however, our team believes 100% + return per month is consistently attainable (on average over a year) and in a perfect machine executed world 300 – 500% being optimally possible. For now our objectives are to achieve consistent wins at higher than 80% with a frequency of about 60 to 120 trades per month with a return averaging 100% per month (the bar).

The IDENT program is a protocol specifically to order flow identification of market participants achieved by way of historical pattern recognition of between 20 – 40 entities that we consider largest and approximately 200 entities that we consider important enough to attempt to track. The entities are prioritized in what we describe as an “alpha” order. The IDENT program is in large part the topic of this recent article at this link that describes the influence of machine trade in the crude oil trade market as experienced by our lead trader and is in large part the reason for the “intuitive like” nature of our software protocol.

The IDENT program seeks to enter trade direction with prioritized alpha order flow and exit in the same fashion. It is a proprietary process and the instruction set within the code architecture will in large part remain private.

For more information on how our development has progressed, refer to this link that will immerse you in a series of articles written from first hand perspective of the day to day trading of our lead trader with crude oil futures.

Thank you.