In One Hour of Crude Oil Trade Wednesday Afternoon (After EIA Reported Inventories) Price Ran Up 134 Ticks, And We Knew The Bottom.
A Simple Crude Oil Intraday Trading Strategy.
Below Are Tips for Intra-Day Reversal Trading Strategies and How To Determine Price Targets For Locating Bottom of Day Price.
Nail the bottoms in crude oil and you have the single most profitable strategy there is in trading crude oil. The intra-day reversals and subsequent run up in price move fast. Intra-day reversals can be precisely executed with an extremely high win rate (our v3 EPIC win rate is well over 90%) and you can build a profitable trading career with that one set-up.
The reversal trade in crude oil trade in this report and video is a real-world example from our oil trading room.
The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence from yesterday’s article concludes here also (see below).
We pick up the story in this article with us closing the winning oil short position / sequence from the Tuesday (selling in to the Trump news) and then on Wednesday (after the weekly EIA report) turning our focus toward pin-pointing likely oil trade reversal areas intra-day to possibly catch a bullish run-up trend intra-day after the sell-off.
The strategy worked. We caught the bottom near to the penny and we had the price target for the high of day within pennies also. Execution wasn’t perfect, but we are winning consistently and the v3 software is performing over expectation.
Exactly how we determined the most likely bottom area on the day and high of day price target is in the raw video feed from the live trading room (see below) and in this quick post.
With the limited time I have available to write this article in premarket, I will provide some of the tips you can use to locate bottoms for your daytrading strategies. For more on this subject, refer to the live trading room videos on YouTube and/or other articles we have published on this topic.
If there is one area of crude oil trade we know well, it is how to locate intra-day bottoms (low price of day) in advance to assist with a traders day trade strategy. The v3 EPIC Machine Trade Software has an extremely high success rate in this specific area of oil trade analysis.
Before digging in to this article, please read the introductory article for this series here: How Oil Day Traders Can Learn to Trade Better Using Success & Failure of Our Trading Development Team – Part 1.
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Recent Trading Profit/Loss Results v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software Sample 100K Account:
For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts
For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts pic.twitter.com/bPJVI49MIL
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) August 11, 2019
Wednesday’s Live Oil Trading Room Session.
- When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
- Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.
First I will share the guidance from the oil trading room server, alert feeds etc and then I’ll give you some pointers on how to locate bottoms in trade.
The raw video from the oil trading room provides significantly more detailed guidance.
Chart from oil trading room below highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.
Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.
JeremyToday at 6:11 AM
Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell
Software well green.
The New Trading Day Starts: Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.
Green arrows on chart are oil contract buys and red arrows sells, white are price targets for low and high alerted prior to trade.
Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intra-day
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:33 AM
Software started buying 54.32’s HF tests
It sold in to the 2/10 in to 54.50s, its in a range program now
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:56 AM
At this point we’re looking for a 12:45 bottom, time cycle 11:15 – 2:15, trading 54.14
machines are here fyi
Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. Trading 54.29. Quoted as FX USOIL WTI
Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93
Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:09 PM
Long 54.13 1/10 tight stops
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:19 PM
Long 2/10 add 53.96, sell 1/10 54.01, hold 2
Sold in to 54.25 hold 0
Gotta teach it to hold some.
Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.
two ticks away hit 53.95 – “Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93”
2 ticks off price target in that first burst
“Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. “
Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:50 PM
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:25 PM
right in to top of channel beauty
Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:36 PM
Hit 55.30 dangerously close now to 2nd price target, nice move today on that snap back reversal trade intraday
I will be on break until 6:00 PM, Jeremy will alert any trades, a tad overloaded with paperwork. Have a good one y’all.
So, The Question Then Is, How Did We Nail The Bottom Price On The Day? And How Is It That We Nail That Trade Day After Day With Well Over 90% Win Rate? Below Are My Tips:
What I Can’t Tell You (Top Secret):
- We are developing proprietary crude oil order flow AI software platform that is getting really accurate (IDENT). This software runs tandem to the EPIC Oil Trade Machine software that executes the trades. Sovoron then uses that data. Our trading service members and clients of SOVORON receive the benefit but I can’t tell you how it works, ever.
- We have been developing algorithmic chart models for crude oil trade on all time-frames for nearly three years now, this helps a lot in determining areas (range) of oil trade and turn-around (reversal, nap-back) trades. The oil algorithmic chart models are available to our trade service members in reports that are regularly distributed.
- We have taken the algorithmic chart models and coded them to machine trade software. The software then alerts myself (and team), our oil trading room traders, our trading service members and Sovoron to trades setting up and trade executions. I can’t tell you exactly how the software is coded beyond that, but I can say that it has over 4700 rules. The v3 software is executing a win rate well over 90%. You can learn how to trade on the information it uses by signing on to our newsletters, alerts and/or attend the live trading room.
What I Can Tell You:
Below are just a few tips I can provide with the limited time I have, but I can say that if you study our methods you can duplicate our win rate. We’re still learning and we’re teaching our trading service members and the recently launched AI software to trade oil (the software will obviously be much better than us soon enough), but I think you get the point. There is a process here, you just have to put in the work and learn.
- Conventional Crude Oil Charts are critical for your trading strategy. Our software uses them, I (our team) use them and you should be using them daily. All time frames are important so that you know the key areas of support and resistance for your day trading plan. Trend-lines on all times frames should be at your immediate access when trading oil.
- Algorithmic Crude Oil Chart Models refine and compliment conventional charting. They help you see what you wouldn’t otherwise be able to see. They also help you know better what the large machine liquidity in the oil markets are likely to do with each support and resistance area. Algorithmic models also provide you with a future forward GPS. For example, you will know where possible channels are before they appear from trade. In summary, algorithmic chart models provide you with the lay of the land – the structure of trade on various time-frames. It is this structure that wide market machine liquidity is programmed to compete within.
- When Sizing Your Intra-day Reversal Trade be sure you can release some size almost immediately so that if the trade then goes against you (after the initial spike) then you have some “room” for your stops. In other words, if price spikes 10 ticks after you enter a 3 contract trade then close 1 contract and then if price returns to your buy then decide if you want to release another and then if it goes 10 ticks under your buy release the last. In that scenario you have lost zero. So if you get good at this trade set up then you have a near zero risk trading edge IF YOU DON’T HOLD LOSERS. Where we are working with our software right now is with it holding some as price reversal continues. We have mastered the bottom reversals and now we’re training the software to hold some size and ride some profit. It’s complicated to explain but I’m sure you get the point.
- Technically watch for increasing volume at possible lows. Know your support and resistance on every time frame, your trend lines are key as are algorithmic chart model structures. Get to know your important times of day, times of week, time-cycles, events etc. Also, if you can enter after a flash down (a quick spike down in to your intended support) this is best. This allows for some range on the snap-back reversal and if the trade fails you can exit.
- And finally, DO NOT HOLD BAGS. Losing trades can be tough to recover. Our v3 software may hold some (very small) but only because it can locate the next bottom and hit it long and have a small loser right side up very quickly. If intra-day trade leaves the intra-day structure our v3 software will close the small position for a loss. This by the way is its edge and the primary reason the v3 EPIC Oil Trading Machine Software very rarely loses a trade.
- We obviously know how to locate intra-day bottoms in oil price and most often also tops (although top price of day targets are more difficult as is trading oil short from the top – bottom reversals are much easier to trade). The everyday oil trader can learn our methods and find a high win rate with an excellent ROI. Reviewing our videos on YouTube, reviewing our written blog posts and signing on with us will go a long way to you learning this trading edge. This becomes a really easy trading strategy when you have done your study, have the right indicators in front of you when trading, receive some experienced guidance when needed and have our alerts / guidance.
- As our software better learns how to hold profits and trail out of the intra-day reversal trades the win rate will remain the same but the ROI of the software graph will likely go parabolic from about 90% per annum (see chart) to a vertical ROI graph – we aren’t far away from this now.
- The majority (we estimate now to be close to 90%) of order flow in the oil markets is now machine traded, if you aren’t at least learning how they trade then you’re just not awake to the profitable world it offers.Between 2012 and 2016, almost two-thirds of crude oil contracts traded on CME’s futures exchange were automated, up from 54 per cent, according to a 2017 study by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. https://www.ft.com/content/8cc7f5d4-59ca-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0
- Dig in to the links below at the bottom of this article if you want to investigate how our development process can help you profit in the oil trading markets.
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
On Wednesday I was fairly active on mic around trading times with trade set ups and execution of trades.
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
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Article Topics; crude oil, tips, reversals, bottoms, trading, strategies, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, how to trade, alerts, trading room, simple, intraday, strategy