My Stock Trading Plan for Wednesday Dec 21, 2016 in Chat room. Gainers: $INVN, $TIG, $CLLS, $BCEI, $UGAZ, $NK, $NUGT, $UWT, $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $SILVER, $SLV, $SI_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX $NG_F… more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

If you are not reviewing the post market trade reports along with this please do so. We assume our trading room subscribers do review it everyday and as such there will be information often in that report that is applicable and not in this premarket report. You will find the post market reports on our blog daily before this one is published.

REPORTING: Another quickie guys and gals! VERY QUICK. SO SORRY but this is quickest one yet – WE ARE RUNNING AROUND CLOCK RESETTING ALL ALGOS for the year end market inflection. So ya – that’s the excuse (true one lol). So much data ugh. BUT I CAN REPORT WE HAVE THEM LOCKED HARD. CHECK OUT EPIC’s HITS WOW.

And I have to admit the prep we are doing for all these media programs we are doing starting on Dec 30 is getting to be a bit much but we’re almost there too.

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO – $UWT Out

Market Outlook:

I AM STALKING COPPER LONG FYI

As mentioned above; all algos (Oil, SPY, Gold, Silver, Dollar, VIX) have hit their targets now so we are running calculation targets for all six algos for all time charting time-frames and expect these reports to start rolling out VERY SOON – EPIC had HUGE NEWS again last night so we got a tad distracted running his math but we’re on it. WE SEE INFLECTION HERE – it may last a while – a pause – but it is either here right now or VERY VERY close. The reason EPIC is so important BTW is that our math for all the other algos is based on same principles – so when he hits we can transfer that specific are of math to the other algos – so if you can imagine doing that for every time cycle (ten) for each algo for fifty indicators on each. Serious data. But we’ll be ready for the 1st.

Oil Algorithm, Chart

Trending toward 1030 AM target. Crude algo intra work sheet 817 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Morning Momo / News Bits:

Momentum stocks: Gainers: $INVN 16%, $TIG 5%, $CLLS 4%, $BCEI 3% $UGAZ $NKE $NUGT $SDRL $CANF $JNUG $STO $UWT $TWLO $FRO $AU $UCO $GDXJ $BP

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum of our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. And you will notice quickly that the algos have been undeniably accurate on many time-frames (intra-day and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades). A quick hour of review at most will bring you up to date.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter ans Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: Gainers: $INVN 16%, $TIG 5%, $CLLS 4%, $BCEI 3% $UGAZ $NKE $NUGT $SDRL $CANF $JNUG $STO $UWT $TWLO $FRO $AU $UCO $GDXJ $BP I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $AKAO (momentum play last week), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades:  I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades:  I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

NA – Getting some action though.

As I wrote last week:

I wrote about resistance the algo alerted at 277.80. This is still in play FYI. However, the Fed will determine now naturally whether we trend up or down from where we are. My bias is up until new year BUT I WOULD BE READY because money could get caught offside. Who knows?

As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

As above in my intro and previous, the chart ain’t broke till its broke. When its broke we’ll let you know.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

NA

Outlook:

As I wrote this week:

Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

As above, I am thinking opportunity comes between Christmas and Trump, and by the way, when $VIX spikes the easiest play is short short short. FYI.

CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events. SHORT $VIX SPIKES!

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

NA

Per previous:

USDJPY is getting close to symmetry on the chart from the last run up about two years ago – charting on deck in coming reports!!!

Per previous:

BE VERY CAREFUL LISTING TO THE $USD/JPY bears – they have been feeding misery to followers for many weeks – the chart is not broke – price is currently at support and there could easily be another leg up – nobody knows but the trend is your friend!

THIS IS STILL SUPER BULLISH!!!

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting. $USDJPY CHART IS NOT BROKEN! IT IS A BULL UNTIL IT IS NOT…

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

NA

Per recent posts:

Rosie the Gold Algo target call HIT!

My Trading Plan for Gold: Short term there could be a pretty good pop around the Fed, but I don’t expect it would last. It could pop to the top of the algo quadrant but I don’t think it would run past – NOT YET ANYWAY. So who know’s I may play a short term scenario – Fed / market reaction dependent.

I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

WE SHOULD BE ALMOST THERE! GET READY! LIKELY BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND TRUMP POWER TRANSFER! CHARTS COMING!

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock). When the trend reversal confirms I will post all the Gold equity picks here.

Silver $SI_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

NA

Per previous;

Yesterday Silver tanked real hard! Good thing we’ve been sitting on our hands awaiting inflection point here.

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver: same

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock). Same here, when trend reversal occurs I will post equity picks here.

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

Please review EPIC’s twitter feed from last evening – trading at top of range and hitting all kinds of algo targets overnight.

HITTING TARGETS LIKE MAD. EVERYONE GOT EPICs NEWSLETTER THIS MORNING FOR OIL TRADE SECTION INFO.

Outlook:

Last week Tuesday algo target at 4:30 hit and Wednesday 10:30 AM both targets hit to the cent and second and Friday Algo target was a near miss and this week Tuesday 4:30 hit and Wednesday 10:30 looks great. Friday targets on charting.

EPIC the ALGO, Target Hit, Oil

Direct Algo Target Hit! Called 12 days ago. Crude algo intra work sheet 436 PM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Trading Plan: NA

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGAS ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):

NA

Per last week:

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted.

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

ON WATCH!!! This could get a considerable pop in to late Wednesday and even as far as in to late Monday next week is possible!!!

Natural gas lost that Fib support yesterday so now I am watching lower supports. I still think there is a possibility for a pop just after Fed speak!

ON CLOSE WATCH!

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially new traders).

If you are trading relying on our charting or algorithms as trade indicators you should read this recent article,

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics:  $INVN, $TIG, $CLLS, $BCEI, $UGAZ, Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY


Wed Dec 21, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algo.

NOTICES:

NEW: MEMBER ALERT: Price hit Tues 4:30 target perfect and overnight trade is trending toward Wednesday 10:30 target!

NEW: We are having a technical coding issue with SMS text / email alert launch – will be resolved soon! For now we are emailing alerts as time allows.

NEW: There is a feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available.

PATENT PHASE: I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from public inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices (including price increases) will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent the roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed and this blog.

HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithmI am represented on and to be used as with a traditional trading chart as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to info@compoundtrading.com, message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

Below is the link for the live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Wednesday Dec 21, 2016.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/JoCKAuka-EPIC-OIL-MEMBER-CHART/

Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 53.14 6:25 AM ET Dec 21, 2016. Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge: (the white arrows are algo points we will review below)

Crude Oil, Intraday, Trade, Chart

Intra day 53.53. Coincidences abound. Crude algo intra work sheet 625 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Multi Week Trading Range for Swing Trading:

Note: Be careful with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right of the chart – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).

Pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends. If price stays below the resistance then you trade the channel under that and if above a major support line same thing (yellow lines).

Price is currently trading above a horizontal support at 51.93 (yellow line) – watch this for support. Resistance is at 54.39. Review charts over the previous week on my blog to see yellow support and resistance lines and channel that I refer to.

Diagonal Trend Lines:

Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.

Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!

Because we are pressed for time you will need to review recent posts or the link above with live chart for the diagonal trend lines.

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

Because I review various MA’s on various time frames on daily posts it is a good idea to go back and review previous posts so your buy – sell triggers are known.

Below is how oil has been trading with 20 MA on the 4 hour chart – fairly predictable buy / sell triggers.

20 MA on 4 Hour. Crude algo intra work sheet 547 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

20 MA, 4 HR Chart, Crude Oil, $USOIL

20 MA on 4 Hour. Crude algo intra work sheet 547 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Fibonacci Levels:

Fibonacci levels on crude oil chart for tight intra trading.

Watch these lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.

Fibonacci, Crude oil, chart, $USOIL

Fibonacci levels. Crude algo intra work sheet 714 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines: If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines – that is your highest probability trading.

The chart below has a number of white arrows. They point to algo lines (red dotted), algo targets (red circles), trading price interaction with lines, center of algo target, round part of targets with price action (white curved lines around targets), intra-day algo lines (white dotted), mid channel algo line (yellow dotted), time / price cycles (white solid geometric shapes) – the point is every line or symbol means something to our calculations. We use at least fifty indicators (not all shown) in various time frames to calculate our targets. The dotted red lines are not MA’s or any other traditional indicator as are the circles and the yellow line. Traditional indicators are the Fib levels (not shown), horizontal support and resistance (purple), diagonal trend lines (blue not shown) etc.

Crude Oil, Intraday, Trade, Chart

Intra day 53.53. Coincidences abound. Crude algo intra work sheet 625 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.

The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.

So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of things)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.

Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.

If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.

I wrote last:

THE CHART ABOVE SHOWS CRUDE TRADING IN A TRIANGLE (in white). If the price stays in the triangle price is 99% going to spike significantly to the upside or downside before it leaves the triangle at or near the end (usually well before the end). In this instance if price is still in triangle at 1:00 Friday (red dotted vertical line) this could very well be when price will spike or drop out of that triangle.

And that is exactly what happened – the price did get close to the vertical dotted red line representing the Friday 1:00 time for rig count and as I wrote above the price did get volatile as it left the triangle.

The next time cycle is represented on the chart above – it is the triangle price is currently trading. It is highly probable that trade will leave this time / price cycle (represented as a triangle) prior to Tuesday 4:30.

Watch these triangles for entries because price can get violent as price enters or leaves the triangle.

We will update you in the trading room or by email notice if any other significant time / price cycles occur intra day.

There is not enough time available to explain all current time cycles coming due. BUT THERE IS a significant one to be aware of terminating at latest Dec 23 at 3:00 and another not quite as significant expiring same day at 1:00 which coincides with rig report weekly – expect volatility between now and then when and if price leaves that white triangle it is trading within now.  There is no way to tell you up or down.

Time, Price, Cycles, Oil, Chart

Time price cycles. Crude algo intra work sheet 727 AM Dec 21 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.

The alpha algo trendlines are on the chart above (red dotted diagonals) – there is one far below price and two above.

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

Per recent posts:

Price missed the alpha target on Friday at 1:00 PM – but I did warn you that it was low probability and for those in the trading room we knew intra day exactly where crude was going to trade (live video available) – we did an intra day algo line set-up because we knew crude was unlikely to hit the targets on the chart – and crude followed the lines we set up for the day exactly.

So what is your most probable algo target for Wednesday 10:30 AM EST? Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).

The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel or whatever – also difficult to explain – WE ARE DOING A VERY DETAILED VIDEO ON THESE INDICATORS SOON THAT WILL SHOW IN MORE DETAIL.

The targets for this week are represented on the chart above. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.

Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Processing now for release any moment (you are seeing the beginning of them above in charts now) – I don’t think there are any real tight crude related snipers beyond our lead trader right now anyway – but nonetheless, we are getting these out – they take a lot of data processing to say the least. We’re almost there.

Indicator Methods:

As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.

You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” soon, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our blog and website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at info@compoundtrading.com – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.

Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

PS If you are not yet reviewing the daily post market trading results blog posts, please do so, they are on the blog daily and often there is information that also may assist your trading. Trade room transcripts (for example) may review topics pertinent to your trading.

 

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets


Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algorithm Charting Calls and Alerts for Tuesday Dec 20 – $CNAT, $FRED, $GLF, $AKBA, $GALT, $JUNO, $CBMX, $UWT, $SPY, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $SLV, VIX, $NG_F and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive.

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION AND TRADE (ON EVERY VENUE) IS EITHER VIDEO RECORDED (TRADING ROOM) OR TIME-STAMPED IN WRITING FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND ABSOLUTE TRANSPARENCY.

Notices:

Notice: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithms or charting it is a must read.

Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017 (main room, momentum, options, swing, commodities, etc). We can have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen and announcements / broadcast – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

 

Primary Lessons That May Help You With Your Trades:

The $UWT (crude oil trade) I was in was about trusting the algorithm @EPICtheAlgo (which took me about 6 months to fully trust). I would be a lot further ahead has I just trusted the math process earlier. But I did this time – and I went big and we won.

Buy alert to our members last week (green arrow). Crude algo intra work sheet 429 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

We bought at the bottom (green arrow) and we sold at the top (today’s top not shown)

Buy alert, trading room, crude oi

Buy alert to our members last week (green arrow). Crude algo intra work sheet 429 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Looking Forward:

The market has a tonne of inflection points now so things should get interesting soon with our algos that you can find here:

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

We are currently processing the reset calls for all algos for Q1 2017 over Christmas season because the have all now completed their calls from Q3 and Q3 2016 with 90% or better accuracy. All in writing, called in advance and fully documented.

Announcements in Trading Room:

09:18 am Curtis M : Good morning! I will be back 2 mins b4 bell. Wll do morning momo incl oil and then move on to regular charting after (oil is momo today). $CNAT, $AKBA $ACAD $ABIO $TRCH, $BCEI $RAD $JDST $AUPH $DUST $WTI $IMMY $REXX $UWT

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

09:20 am Curtis M : $KLRE Halt – News Released. Halt time: 09:14:18.
09:23 am Curtis M : Morning Mat
09:23 am Mathew Waterfall : Morning guys. Looking to exit some positions if this rally gets some legs. $CLF showing good strength off of Chinese steel report which is nice
09:24 am Curtis M : Yup in your words some jiggy
09:24 am Curtis M : I will be looking to scale out 2/3 of my $UWT in morning momo FYI
09:24 am Mathew Waterfall : haha yes, would like to see more jiggy
09:25 am Curtis M : My words too lol
09:25 am Mathew Waterfall : Also looking to exit $XOM small position and see what $IWM does. Will let those 139s ride most likely until tomorrow or so
09:26 am Curtis M : I won’t even be watching other stocks at open – I have a large $UWT to traverse FYI ALL
09:28 am Curtis M : Just emailed Sell Alert on 2/3 $UWT of 10000 shares
09:28 am Curtis M : Will chip out 2/3 after bell sometime VERY LIKELY (just t be clear so nobody yells at me)
09:39 am Curtis M : Chipped out most now holding 3000 $UWT
09:40 am Curtis M : Watching $FRED for wash out then snap back
09:43 am Curtis M : Calculating new targets for crude if it gets up over resistance areas
09:43 am Curtis M : $FRED is a real deal on real news – could go again
09:47 am Mathew Waterfall : $IWM flying. Lets keep the juice on here please
09:49 am Curtis M : Long $FRED small 1000 share 17.65
09:49 am Curtis M : Real tight I dont plan on losses b4 xmas
09:52 am Mathew Waterfall : Posted my levels yesterday but $WYNN still looking horrible. Will watch for reentry around 88 but likely not until after the first
09:53 am Curtis M : Out $FRED 17.96
09:53 am Curtis M : $FRED
09:54 am Curtis M : Shoot lol
09:54 am Mathew Waterfall : Hate that. But it could have gone the other direction. That’s what I tell myself at least lol
09:54 am Curtis M : haha
09:56 am OILQ K : Out $UWT Thanks!
09:57 am Curtis M : NP I got some other yehaws on email and DM I’ll share later – it worked out:)
09:57 am Mathew Waterfall : Here comes the early fade
10:03 am Mathew Waterfall : $CLF great strength. Shooting for 10’s mid term
10:03 am Mathew Waterfall : Calls bought yesterdat at .295 from .24 and working higher here
10:03 am Curtis M : so much winning
10:04 am Curtis M : lol sorry
10:04 am Carol B : yup win away
10:04 am Michael P : thanks for the calls peeps excellent
10:05 am Mathew Waterfall : Morning flurry looks to be about over for me. Market feels like it wants a breather here
10:06 am Curtis M : OIl could be a gusher yet – its held up really well
10:07 am Curtis M : Machines have it right now
10:10 am Dani M : I saw the convo on Stocktwits lolololol you should a let him have it – what MA IS THAT THEN LOLOLOL LMAO
10:10 am Curtis M : ha
10:11 am gary y : $JUNO up
10:11 am Mathew Waterfall : I would just screw with those people. “Hey you caught me. It’s the 134.5 square root multi average SMA. Really basic stuff”
10:11 am Curtis M : lolol
10:12 am Curtis M : It was actually Sartaj talking to him I cant do it – and Sartaj just like whatever lol doesn’t pay attention and I’m like hit em haha
10:13 am Curtis M : Chipping out last 3000 $UWT
10:14 am Curtis M : Sorry if youre getting 2x emails
10:16 am Tyler H : new dress haha
10:17 am Curtis M : Yes! Thanks Ty you got that right. Momma be happy.
10:19 am Mathew Waterfall : Out of those $IWM weekly 139’s @ .30 from .285. Really just want to lighten up a bit here so basically a scratch. Holding into tomorrow would do these well of continued strength so I’ll keep an eye on reentry
10:23 am Drew M : $IONS momo
10:30 am Tyler H : thinking ss $FRED
10:32 am Mathew Waterfall : Steel names in play. $CLF and $AKS on my board getting with the program also $X looking decent. $FCX holding up well in the face of this copper weakness
10:32 am Mathew Waterfall : Looking to buy pullbacks in $FCX and $CLF potentially
10:33 am Curtis M : Yes X was my 2nd choice right after bell – didn’t take it – actually looking at Copper – I know wierd
10:33 am MarketMaven M : im in $X
10:37 am Mathew Waterfall : $X bull sweep just came through. That’s on top of ton of buying in $CLF right off of the open
10:42 am Curtis M : Those soldiers should be the handle
10:42 am Curtis M : Messy but bullish
10:44 am Drew M : Sold $BLTD win
10:47 am Curtis M : New 52wk Highs: $ARC $AWH $KBAL
10:47 am Curtis M : Nice Drew we talked about that yesterday
10:48 am Jack D : Long $SHAK f
10:49 am Carol B : I like $OCLR here
10:50 am Curtis M : $SHAK takeover rumor
10:50 am Mathew Waterfall : The $SHAK! Lik the name, high short interest but that thing acts like a turd whenever i play it
10:51 am Curtis M : $SHAK terrible chart
10:51 am Mathew Waterfall : I’m gonna do some scanning. Things on my end have quieted down a bit
10:52 am Mathew Waterfall : I just hit weekly 38 puts for a flyer after they deny the rumor
10:52 am Mathew Waterfall : small could go either way but this sees 36s fast if rumor goes out the window
10:52 am Curtis M : lol 🙂
10:52 am Curtis M : yup
10:53 am Mathew Waterfall : Alright now some scanning
11:02 am Drew M : $VXX new all time low
11:03 am Michael P : in $htbx some
11:03 am MarketMaven M : $WTI whoo hoo strong bull
11:04 am MarketMaven M : $DE strong too
11:22 am Mathew Waterfall : $SHAk out half of my 38 puts at .75 from .4. will keep the rest for additional dumpage here
11:22 am Curtis M : Wow on $HTBX 🙂 Interesting TOD
11:23 am Curtis M : Large bolcks $FXI
11:24 am Mathew Waterfall : All out of $AKS this week calls. First 2/3rds was big win into the fed last week. This sell was flat so overall decent gains on this trade
11:28 am Rob D : sounds good Matt
11:29 am Darni T : $PI ATH
11:32 am Curtis M : $SEAC block
11:34 am Curtis M : https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949428/000129673416000006/0001296734-16-000006-index.htm CFO 10000 share buy $CDTI
11:36 am Curtis M : Leader board $CNAT 126% $FRED $GLF $AKBA $GALT $VLTC $BCEI $CVGW $ABIO $PBMD $GLMD $KNDI $HIL $WTI $HTBX $CRR $SGY $PI
11:43 am Darni T : $WLL vol
11:47 am Mathew Waterfall : Huge sweepers in $WLL all day
11:51 am Mathew Waterfall : LIBYA’S NOC SAYS FIELDS REOPENING TO ADD 175K B/D IN ONE MONTH
11:56 am Curtis M : Leaderboard $CNAT $FRED $GLF $AKBA $GALT
12:09 pm OILQ K : $KLREW momo
12:12 pm Curtis M : New 52wk Highs: $MSFG
12:13 pm Dani M : $SWRM up 138%
12:14 pm Mathew Waterfall : Out half $clf Jan13 10c’s at .39 from .24. Keeping other half as I think it goes higher, just not trustin grally in steel a whole lot so playing tight and ringing the cash register
12:15 pm Mathew Waterfall : Think we see fib at 9.62 tomorrow/thursday on $CLF will likely roll to 11’s at that pint
12:15 pm Mathew Waterfall : *point
12:15 pm Curtis M : On lunch till 1245
12:15 pm Mathew Waterfall : $SHAK dying as well. delicious
12:16 pm Curtis M : lol
12:36 pm Curtis M : $FRED back on scan for a possible bounce
12:44 pm Mathew Waterfall : 6108 calls traded for $FRED 93% mid or above meaning lots of buying. 31% ask or above meaning urgency
12:45 pm Mathew Waterfall : That’s against 4665 outs 51% traded mid or below so likely some selling
12:45 pm Mathew Waterfall : *puts
01:01 pm Mathew Waterfall : Dr J talking his book as always just spat out $CLF. Might be rocket fuel to my target over next day or so
01:05 pm Mathew Waterfall : Right on schedule nHOD for $CLF. Calls almost a 2 bagger
01:05 pm Curtis M : nce
01:06 pm Mathew Waterfall : Long bomb. $CRM Feb17 80c’s at .35
01:11 pm Mathew Waterfall : Today’s 1 hour bars on $CLF. Doesn’t get much better than that http://tos.mx/jnjjhP
01:18 pm Curtis M : $VLTC tank
01:24 pm OILK K : $HD here os volume
01:26 pm Curtis M : $SI_F Momo
01:28 pm Mathew Waterfall : looking at end of year short covering lotto’s. some ripe names out there
01:31 pm Darni T : $CNAT looks like rocket time
01:32 pm Mathew Waterfall : I usually try to let moves like that play out for a day or so. The close is always inportant to me to see if it dumps with all of the profit taking
01:33 pm Mathew Waterfall : Of course I haven’t looked at short interest which can fuel a rally big time from here in a pro gap type move
01:35 pm Mathew Waterfall : Rolled rest of my $CLF Jan calls into 12’s. Big jump yes but I wanted to take out profits. Basically 2 bagger right here at .47 from .24 entry. .33 credit to roll to 12’s
01:44 pm Curtis M : $CLF denying takeover
01:45 pm Mathew Waterfall : Yepp good exit on that one. Held 50 on the 5′ though so still not horrible. $AKS and $X going so this should remain strong
01:46 pm Curtis M : nice
01:47 pm Curtis M : $USB momo too bank
01:48 pm Darni T : Banks are from that CNBC interview yesterday
01:49 pm Curtis M : $CLF block sell yuge
01:50 pm Dani M : $VKTX small L
01:57 pm Mathew Waterfall : Watching $GPRO. With a little push this could see the other side of 10. End of year short covering candidate
02:01 pm Curtis M : Long $CNAT 1000
02:02 pm Curtis M : 5.02
02:05 pm Curtis M : add 3000 $CNAT
02:08 pm Curtis M : add $CNET 6000
02:09 pm Curtis M : 4.96 then 5.01
02:19 pm Curtis M : chpping out $CNAT
02:20 pm Curtis M : 3k 5.08
02:21 pm Curtis M : 3k 5.65
02:21 pm Curtis M : rest out 5.06 overall avg out
02:25 pm Mathew Waterfall : Nice man. Quick little kill
02:26 pm Curtis M : hotdogs beer tip lol
02:29 pm Curtis M : usdjpy bears got me to look
02:29 pm Curtis M : lets see
02:34 pm Curtis M : USDJPY I wouldnt call it broke tll 100 crosses 20 on 2 hr w price under but thats me I tend t o mis first 10% – 15% catch middle
02:35 pm Curtis M : fark $CNAT
02:36 pm Curtis M : I always play those momos chicken ugh
02:37 pm Dani M : I stayed in it Curt thank YOU I know that about you I gamble some
02:38 pm Curtis M : nice
02:39 pm Mathew Waterfall : $NUGT next week 7’s at .2. Small size, otpions on leveraged ETF’s will have you drinking champagne or vodka from a plastic bottle so I keep it extra small on these
02:40 pm Curtis M : haha
02:50 pm Mathew Waterfall : $PI just won’t stop today. Flying
02:51 pm Darni T : Was just going to say that. HOD
02:52 pm Curtis M : People calling bottom in Gold and Miners all over social
02:52 pm Mathew Waterfall : Wanted to buy a dip around the 50 on the 5′ for a quick play and it didn’t even get there. I’m not chasing at this point but it looks super strong
02:52 pm Mathew Waterfall : Come on $NUGT! Get me some of the good stuff
02:53 pm Mathew Waterfall : But if course if people are tlaking abot itthat likely means we have another flush before the real move
02:53 pm Curtis M : ugh
02:58 pm jetcom b : done – see you gus tom
02:59 pm jeff g : Yes have gifts to buy later! Thanks!
03:09 pm OILQ K : $EVOK consistent up
03:10 pm Mathew Waterfall : Good continuation off ofthe intial pop and drop
03:11 pm Mathew Waterfall : I’m done for the day unless something crazy jumps out at me. Good wins today with $CLF and $AKS. Lotto $CHK looking like a dud but there’s 3 days to go for a Christmas miracle
03:11 pm OILQ K : cya
03:11 pm Curtis M : Thanks Mathew
03:12 pm Sammy T : bye everyone
03:13 pm Mathew Waterfall : I’ll be hanging out it anyone has any weird questions for me like what i think of $WYNN(looks horrible atm) or what is the meaning of life
03:14 pm Drew M : 10-4
03:28 pm Curtis M : $CNAT long 1000 5.11
03:29 pm Mathew Waterfall : $ALXN takeover pop. Puts have a crazy b/a spread though so nothing for me
03:34 pm Curtis M : $CNAT stop at flat
03:34 pm Curtis M : we’ll see
03:35 pm Curtis M : out flat
03:35 pm Curtis M : .1c gain lol broker fee
03:36 pm Mathew Waterfall : Don’t spend it all in one place!
03:36 pm Curtis M : ha
03:36 pm Josh S : I read some of that chatterr on StockTwits.. did those people even read the site?
03:37 pm Mathew Waterfall : Stocktwits is easily 99% people who have no clue what they are tlaking about.
03:38 pm Mathew Waterfall : $SHAK puking continues. 38 outs now .825 from .40. I’ll probably step off the rollercoaster here
03:38 pm Mathew Waterfall : *puts. I can’t type that word today for some reason
03:39 pm Darni T : agreed
03:41 pm Mathew Waterfall : There’s a ton of noise on stocktwits, twitter, whatever. Some is helpful, but a lot of it is either distracting or straight up misinformation
03:42 pm Mathew Waterfall : I know traders who will post the opposite of what they are doing on purpose. I’m not sure what they think that they get out of that strategy but it definately goes on
03:42 pm Mathew Waterfall : Focus on your own strategy and use the rest for laughs unless it’s coming from a verified source
03:43 pm Darni T : omg
03:43 pm Mathew Waterfall : We’re lucky with a room like this that we can share and learn. On twitter and others that’s not always the case
03:43 pm Josh S : I just thought it was interesting, because their trading room also purported to be “crowd sourced”..
03:44 pm Josh S : anyway you’re right, no business doing trading if a person can’t do their own research
03:44 pm Mathew Waterfall : They probably also advertise using supercars trying to lure you into to sme BS service
03:45 pm Curtis M : aesomw
03:45 pm Curtis M : awesome
03:45 pm Mathew Waterfall : I’m not saying you can’t use others for help, this room is a great example of that. But when you’re out filtering through unreliable advice it needs to be taken with a giant grain of salt
03:47 pm Curtis M : That news knocked algos off with EPIC lol
03:48 pm Mathew Waterfall : haha
03:48 pm Curtis M : It was techically perfect 🙂
03:52 pm Mathew Waterfall : MOC 30 for sale. These numbers have been bouncing around leaning a bit to the sell side. Not much of a trend but it looks like fin heavy on the sell side
03:52 pm Curtis M : hmm
03:53 pm Mathew Waterfall : Saw some put buying there in the afternoon as well. GS mostly for whatever reason
03:54 pm Curtis M : interesting
03:54 pm Mathew Waterfall : Watching $GPRO and $TWLO for possible end of year short squeezes/short covering rallies
03:55 pm Mathew Waterfall : $TWLO just hit with a $45 price target
04:00 pm Mathew Waterfall : Have a good afternoon/evening. Catch ya in the AM
04:00 pm OILQ K : wa
04:01 pm Curtis M : catcha
04:01 pm Cara R : cya

I will post the picture with me rolling around in the bathtub with my money later on instagram – stay tuned!

You can follow along with public calls our algorithms post on Twitter here:

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

 

Article Topics: $CNAT, $FRED, $GLF, $AKBA, $GALT, Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Chat Room, Trading Results, $CBMX, $JUNO, $UWT, $GLD, $GDX, $USOIL, $WTIC, $SPY, $DXY, $VIX, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST, $GC_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, $DWT, S&P 500


My Stock Trading Plan for Monday Dec 20, 2016 in Chat room.  $UWT, $CNAT, $ACAD, $TNXP, $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $SILVER, $SLV, $SI_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX $NG_F… more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

If you are not reviewing the post market trade reports along with this please do so. We assume our trading room subscribers do review it everyday and as such there will be information often in that report that is applicable and not in this premarket report. You will find the post market reports on our blog daily before this one is published.

REPORTING: Another quickie guys and gals! SO SORRY but this is quickest one yet – WE ARE RUNNING AROUND CLOCK RESETTING ALL ALGOS for the year end market inflection. So ya – that’s the excuse (true one lol). So much data ugh.

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO, $UWT (deep dive)

Market Outlook:

As mentioned above; all algos (Oil, SPY, Gold, Silver, Dollar, VIX) have hit their targets now so we are running calculation targets for all six algos for all time charting time-frames and expect these reports to start rolling out VERY SOON – EPIC had HUGE NEWS last night so we got a tad distracted running his math but we’re on it. WE SEE INFLECTION HERE – it may last a while – a pause – but it is either here right now or VERY VERY close.

Morning Momo / News Bits:

8:00 AM Gainers: $CNAT 134%, $ACAD 37%, $TNXP 8%, $BCEI 6%, $JDST 5%, $VIP $AUPH $DUST $DGAZ $UWT

7:34 am $CNAT $5.00 154% 205K vol pre-market

Lots of news:

BlackBerry shares rally in premarket after profit surprise http://on.mktw.net/2hmtwxe

PX, DRI, BBRY, GIS, GM, FB, AAPL & more
CNBC.com
Check out which companies are making headlines before the bell:
Praxair — After weeks of talks, Praxair and rival industrial gas maker Linde have signed a non-binding term sheet for a merger of equals. Linde shareholders would get about a share and a half for each share they now hold, while Praxair holders would get one share.
Darden Restaurants — The parent of Olive Garden and other chains matched estimates with profit of 64 cents per share, while revenue was also in line with forecasts. Darden did post better-than-expected comparable-restaurant sales.
BlackBerry — The formerly dominant smartphone company — now largely a software provider — reported adjusted quarterly profit of 2 cents per share, compared to estimates of a 1 cent per share loss. Revenue was below Street forecasts, but BlackBerry did raise its full-year outlook.
General Mills — The foodmaker missed estimates by one cent a share, with adjusted quarterly profit of 85 cents per share. Revenue missed the mark, as well, on weaker sales of brands like Yoplait yogurt and Progresso soup.
General Motors — The automaker will temporarily shut down five plants in January for one to three weeks, as well as laying off nearly 1,300 workers at a Detroit assembly plant beginning in March. GM is trying to adjust to a slowdown in auto sales following seven years of growth.
Fiat Chrysler — U.S. officials are investigating about one million Fiat Chrysler pickup trucks and SUVs following reports of rollaway crashes that occurred after the vehicles were parked. NHTSA said it had reports of 25 related crashes and nine injuries allegedly related to the issue.
Facebook — European Union antitrust regulators are charging Facebook with providing misleading information about its takeover of WhatsApp. The objection involves Facebook’s sharing of WhatsApp user data.
Biogen — Biogen named Executive Vice President Michel Vounatsos as its next chief executive officer, effective January 6. He’ll replace George Scangos, who had led the drugmaker since 2010 and had previously announced he would step down as soon as a successor was found.
Apple — Apple has discussed setting up manufacturing facilities in India with the government, according to The Wall Street Journal. Making its products locally would allow Apple to open its own stores in India.
Philip Morris, Altria — These and other tobacco producers are on watch today after the California Public Employees’ Retirement System voted to broaden its ban on tobacco investments. That move went against a staff recommendation that the 16-year old ban be removed.
Destination Maternity — Destination Maternity agreed to be bought by French child care clothing and products retailer Orchestra Prémaman in a stock swap deal worth $7.05 per share. Shareholders in the maternity apparel retailer will receive a little more than half of an Orchestra Prémaman share for each share they now hold.
Ericsson — Ericsson will reportedly cut about a quarter of its workforce in Italy, according to a Bloomberg report. That comes after the telecom company lost the contract to manage the country’s largest wireless network.
Deutsche Bank — Deutsche Bank remains on our watch list amid reports that a settlement with the U.S. Justice Department will be announced this week, and that the penalty for the bank in a mortgage backed securities case will be far less than the $14 billion first proposed by U.S. officials.
Bank of America — The bank sold its U.K. credit card business MBNA to Lloyds Banking Group for $2.35 billion.
Square — Instinet began coverage on the mobile payments company with a “buy” rating, noting the growth of the overall market and Square’s consistent gain in market share.
Salesforce.com — Drexel Hamilton initiated coverage on the company with a “buy” rating, noting that Salesforce continues to be a leader in customer relations management while expanding its cloud software offerings.
Alcoa — The aluminum producer was upgraded to “outperform” from “neutral” at Maquarie, citing expectations of improved demand and pricing.

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum of our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. And you will notice quickly that the algos have been undeniably accurate on many time-frames (intra-day and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades). A quick hour of review at most will bring you up to date.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter ans Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List:  $CNAT 134%, $ACAD 37%, $TNXP 8%, $BCEI 6%, $JDST 5%, $VIP $AUPH $DUST $DGAZ $UWT $MTL $SID $LABU $GGB $BBRY $NVDA I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List: I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $AKAO (momentum play last week), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: $AA $KOS $HBAN $VSAR $WDC $AWK $AMD $PEG $ES $DAN $AXL $TECK $NVDA $FNB $ZION $PBCT $FRC $CLVS $REGN I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades: $CBOE $CEMP $SBGL $OAK $CELP $EXR $FE $DYN $FNV $AYI $GRP $INOV $PB $HMST $FFWM $BUSE $MITL $NLY $AI $AMGN  I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

NA

As I wrote last week:

I wrote about resistance the algo alerted at 277.80. This is still in play FYI. However, the Fed will determine now naturally whether we trend up or down from where we are. My bias is up until new year BUT I WOULD BE READY because money could get caught offside. Who knows?

As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

As above in my intro and previous, the chart ain’t broke till its broke. When its broke we’ll let you know.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

NA

Outlook:

As I wrote this week:

Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

As above, I am thinking opportunity comes between Christmas and Trump, and by the way, when $VIX spikes the easiest play is short short short. FYI.

CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events. SHORT $VIX SPIKES!

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

 

USDJPY is getting close to symmetry on the chart from the last run up about two years ago – charting on deck in coming reports!!!

Per previous:

BE VERY CAREFUL LISTING TO THE $USD/JPY bears – they have been feeding misery to followers for many weeks – the chart is not broke – price is currently at support and there could easily be another leg up – nobody knows but the trend is your friend!

THIS IS STILL SUPER BULLISH!!!

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting. $USDJPY CHART IS NOT BROKEN! IT IS A BULL UNTIL IT IS NOT…

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

NA

Per recent posts:

Rosie the Gold Algo target call HIT!

My Trading Plan for Gold: Short term there could be a pretty good pop around the Fed, but I don’t expect it would last. It could pop to the top of the algo quadrant but I don’t think it would run past – NOT YET ANYWAY. So who know’s I may play a short term scenario – Fed / market reaction dependent.

I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

WE SHOULD BE ALMOST THERE! GET READY! LIKELY BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND TRUMP POWER TRANSFER! CHARTS COMING!

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock). When the trend reversal confirms I will post all the Gold equity picks here.

Silver $SI_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

NA

Per previous;

Yesterday Silver tanked real hard! Good thing we’ve been sitting on our hands awaiting inflection point here.

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver: same

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock). Same here, when trend reversal occurs I will post equity picks here.

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

Please review EPIC’s twitter feed from last evening – trading at top of range and hitting all kinds of algo targets overnight.

Outlook:

Last week Tuesday algo target at 4:30 hit and Wednesday 10:30 AM both targets hit to the cent and second and Friday Algo target was a miss.

Trading Plan: I am in here on three entries – 10000 shares deep $UWT.

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGAS ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):

NA

Per last week:

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted.

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

ON WATCH!!! This could get a considerable pop in to late Wednesday and even as far as in to late Monday next week is possible!!!

Natural gas lost that Fib support yesterday so now I am watching lower supports. I still think there is a possibility for a pop just after Fed speak!

ON CLOSE WATCH!

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially new traders).

If you are trading relying on our charting or algorithms as trade indicators you should read this recent article,

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics:  $UWT, $CNAT, $ACAD, $TNXP, Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY


Tues Dec 20, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)

Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.

NOTICES:

NEW: MEMBER ALERT: Price held mid channel algo line and intra day algo line support in overnight trade. See chart below.

NEW: We are having a technical coding issue with SMS text / email alert launch – will be resolved soon! For now we are emailing alerts as time allows.

NEW: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithms it is a must read.

MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users.

PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.

24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24 hr crude oil trade room.

PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.

SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.

HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. If you need assistance email your questions to info@compoundtrading.com, message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.

FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:

Below is the link for the live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Tuesday Dec 20, 2016.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/lY5WAtSM-EPC-the-Algo-Member-Chart/

Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 53.14 5:30 AM ET Dec 20, 2016. Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge:

Crude, oil, trading, chart, algo

MEMBER ALERT: Price held mid channel algo line and intra day algo line support in overnight trade. Crude algo intra. $USOIL $WTIC $CL_F $USO

Multi Week Trading Range for Swing Trading:

Note: Be careful with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right of the chart – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).

Pay attention to the upward trending channel – you can enter long and sell in between the channel yellow lines as it trends. If price stays below the resistance then you trade the channel under that and if above a major support line same thing (yellow lines).

Price is currently trading above a horizontal support at 51.93 (yellow line) – watch this for support.

Member Alert Price held mid channel algo line and intra day algo line support in overnight trade. Crude algo intra work sheet 513 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Crude oil, support, algo, chart

Member Alert Price held mid channel algo line and intra day algo line support in overnight trade. Crude algo intra work sheet 513 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

If you have any questions email info@compoundtrading.com with direct questions for direct answers. Or ask in the trade room in a private message to the lead trader.

Diagonal Trend Lines:

Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.

Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!

Besides the blue diagonal trend lines you see on the chart above – the two trend lines (the intra day diagonal algo line the lead trader set up live in room today and the mid channel trend-line) are very important to note also!

Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA

Because I review various MA’s on various time frames on daily posts it is a good idea to go back and review previous posts so your buy – sell triggers are known.

Below is how oil has been trading with 20 MA on the 4 hour chart – fairly predictable buy / sell triggers.

20 MA on 4 Hour. Crude algo intra work sheet 542 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

20 MA, 4 Hour, Chart, Oil, $USOIL

20 MA on 4 Hour. Crude algo intra work sheet 542 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Fibonacci Levels:

Fibonacci levels on crude oil chart for tight intra trading.

Fibonacci Levels. Crude algo intra work sheet 548 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Fibonacci Levels, Crude oil, chart

Fibonacci Levels. Crude algo intra work sheet 548 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Watch these lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.

Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):

Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.

Advanced Charting:

Respect support and resistance lines:

If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines – that is your highest probability trading.

Oil Time / Price Cycles:

Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.

The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.

So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of things)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.

Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.

If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.

I wrote last:

THE CHART ABOVE SHOWS CRUDE TRADING IN A TRIANGLE (in white). If the price stays in the triangle price is 99% going to spike significantly to the upside or downside before it leaves the triangle at or near the end (usually well before the end). In this instance if price is still in triangle at 1:00 Friday (red dotted vertical line) this could very well be when price will spike or drop out of that triangle.

And that is exactly what happened – the price did get close to the vertical dotted red line representing the Friday 1:00 time for rig count and as I wrote above the price did get volatile as it left the triangle.

The next time cycle is represented on the chart above – it is the triangle price is currently trading. It is highly probable that trade will leave this time / price cycle (represented as a triangle) prior to Tuesday 4:30.

Watch these triangles for entries because price can get violent as price enters or leaves the triangle.

REVIEW THE CHART ABOVE – PRICE INTRA IN OVERNIGHT TRADE IS TRADING AT TOP OF PRICE CYCLE TRIANGLE! IT MAY NOT BREACH IT TO UPSIDE! IF IT DOES NOT PRICE WILL NOT HIT TARGET FOR 4:30 TUESDAY – BUT OBVIOUSLY AN AWESOME CALL ON THAT TARGET EITHER WAY – ESPECIALLY FROM OUR BUY ALERT LAST WEEK! (BELOW).

We will update you in the trading room or by email notice if any other significant time / price cycles occur intra day.

Buy alert to our members last week (green arrow). Crude algo intra work sheet 429 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Buy alert, trading room, crude oi

Buy alert to our members last week (green arrow). Crude algo intra work sheet 429 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):

To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.

The alpha algo trendlines are on the chart above (red dotted diagonals) – there is one far below price and two above.

Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):

Per yesterday:

Price missed the alpha target on Friday at 1:00 PM – but I did warn you that it was low probability and for those in the trading room we knew intra day exactly where crude was going to trade (live video available) – we did an intra day algo line set-up because we knew crude was unlikely to hit the targets on the chart – and crude followed the lines we set up for the day exactly.

So what is your most probable algo target for Tuesday 4:30 EST? Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).

The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel or whatever – also difficult to explain – WE ARE DOING A VERY DETAILED VIDEO ON THESE INDICATORS SOON THAT WILL SHOW IN MORE DETAIL.

The targets for this week are represented on the chart above. Again, refer to the live charting I send you for this also or be in the trading room.

Also from yesterday:

I am currently watching the math on two other possible algo lines developing that I will report on soon – SO THE TARGETS FOR THIS WEEK ARE NOT CONSIDERED HIGH PROBABILITY – THEY ARE SOFT TARGETS AT THIS POINT.

Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.

Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.

Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Processing now for release any moment – I don’t think there are any real tight crude related snipers beyond our lead trader right now anyway – but nonetheless, we are getting these out – they take a lot of data processing to say the least. We’re almost there.

Indicator Methods:

As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).

Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:

Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.

You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.

We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.

Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).

Conclusion:

That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.

See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at info@compoundtrading.com – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.

Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.

EPIC the Oil Algo

PS If you are not yet reviewing the daily post market trading results blog posts, please do so, they are on the blog daily and often there is information that also may assist your trading.

 

Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets

 


Review of my Chat Room Stock Day Trades, Algorithm Charting Calls and Alerts for Monday Dec 19 –  $XGTI, $SGY, $GSAT, $JUNO, $CBMX, $UWT, $SPY, $GLD, $GDX, $USDJPY, $DXY, $USOIL, $WTIC, $SLV, VIX, $NG_F and more.

Intro:

Time stamped entries (in permanent archive) copied to this blog in italics (below) are direct live log chat from chat trade room as they occurred (random chat from myself not applicable or other misc chat deleted). Chat trade room is also video recorded daily for trade archive.

In addition to chat, this trade-room has live voice broadcast (that covers in detail what indicators I am looking for in and out off each trade) and has live chart screen sharing right from my monitor to the room with all indicators I am looking at.

EVERY CALL WE MAKE, PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION AND TRADE (ON EVERY VENUE) IS EITHER RECORDED OR TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND ABSOLUTE TRANSPARENCY.

Notices:

Notice: There is a new feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are using our algorithms or charting it is a must read.

Notice: We are testing fault settings for multiple trading rooms in 2017 (main room, momentum, options, swing, commodities, etc). We can have groups in different rooms all seeing same screen and announcements / broadcast – if you’re moved don’t sweat it – it won’t affect your experience.

Overview Perspective & Review of Chat Room, Algo Calls, Trades and Alerts:

Mellow day – market calm – nailed a runner in morning $XGTI and still holding deep dive crude related $UWT from last week. $SGY is rocking from my Trading Room Newsletter alerts and Swing Trading set-up newsletters.

My Personal Trades:

Monday for me was mostly $STUDY and watching my Oil related $UWT trade – I am 10,000 shares deep from earlier in the week (1000, 3000, 6000 entries) – so that is setting up to be a great win. I see oil is up big overnight – would have never known:) Other traders in the room have been on winning side and have been regularly so that is great. Still hold $CBMX and $JUNO.

Primary Lessons That May Help You With Your Trades:

The $UWT (crude oil trade) I am in is completely about trusting the proven algorithm @EPICtheAlgo (which took me about 6 months to fully trust). I would be a lot further ahead has I just trusted the math process earlier. But I did this time – and I WENT BIG – REAL BIG FOR ME.

Buy alert, trading room, crude oi

Buy alert to our members last week (green arrow). Crude algo intra work sheet 429 AM Dec 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Looking Forward:

The market has a tonne of inflection points now so things should get interesting soon with our algos (Oil, Gold, Silver, US Dollar, VIX, SPY).

Announcements in Trading Room:

08:42 am Curtis M : Momo $TNXP, $GSAT, $XGTI, $ELGT, $APTO.

08:54 am Curtis M : Good Morning! Momo $TNXP, $GSAT, $XGTI, $ELGT, $APTO. At the bell I will focus on momentum stocks and then move over to Oil, Gold, Silver etc…

Stock Chat-room Trading Transcript:

Miscellaneous chatter is removed.

09:05 am Curtis M : $JUNO Defeats Kite Pharma’s Challenge to CAR T-Cell Patent. $KITE https://finance.yahoo.com/news/juno-therapeutics-defeats-kite-pharma-140000298.html
09:20 am Curtis M : Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $TNXP $GSAT $XGTI $CUR $APHB $BCLI $AWH $RGSE $PLX $PSTI $NVCN $GGB $JNUG $CBIO $OCLR $DRYS
09:31 am Curtis M : Long $XGTI small
09:32 am Curtis M : 3.51 1000 shares
09:33 am Curtis M : Out 3.60
09:41 am Curtis M : In Play: $XGTI, $BCLI, $EVOK, $LOXO, $DRYS, $GOGO, $JNUG, $WR
09:42 am Curtis M : 52wk Highs: $GTT $INN $MASI $ORA $RICK $UVE
09:44 am OILK K : $ACTS Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ. Halt time: 09:40:22.
09:46 am Mathew Waterfall : Quiet morning for me so far. Letting my positions work. Stalking the weak FANG names but no trigger pull so far
09:47 am MarketMaven M : $SPX spike
09:48 am Dani M : $HMNY vol halt
09:49 am Carol B : Copper serously off
09:51 am Curtis M : HMNY Google Play Shows Availability of Zone Technologies’ RedZone Map[+]
09:53 am Curtis M : 52wk Highs: $NVLN $UMH
10:02 am Curtis M : Looks like morning momos are done for me – gong to run scans and come back and review oil, gold, etc
10:02 am Curtis M : 10 mins
10:17 am Curtis M : Very quiet out there
10:19 am Mathew Waterfall : Yepp. $VIX getting smoked but not much movement to the upside which is kind of odd. Likely we just drift/chop around next 2 weeks
10:50 am Curtis M : Not much to review at all – market just flatenned – oil may move a bit and of course some select stocks – but currency and commodities and indices blah
10:52 am Mathew Waterfall : Sounds like we are both in the same camp. I’m gonna do some scans and grab some coffee. Back in a bit
11:11 am Curtis M : $AKAO pop
11:11 am Curtis M : $CLVS pop
11:12 am Curtis M : $CLVS Halt
11:14 am Curtis M : CLVSClovis Shares to Resume Trade at 11:15:59 a.m. EST
11:24 am Curtis M : Experiencing internet spikes expect service to resume shortly
11:31 am Darnel T : $NKE wth jeez
11:38 am Mathew Waterfall : $NKE seeing some decent call buying here as well
11:48 am OILK K : Curl on $HMY tempting but soft day
11:50 am Mathew Waterfall : Not much doing today. Might be my only open all day: $WYNN Jan20 95/97 call spread at .57. Out if it slips past 90
11:54 am Curtis M : $CLVS 4 mins
12:19 pm Dani M : $OCLR vol
12:35 pm Mathew Waterfall : Any knife catchers out there? Dust looks about ready. High risk options play with some rewards if you get a bounce
12:35 pm Sammy T : Market stall Mat
12:36 pm Sammy T : Pause time or something
12:36 pm Curtis M : $DUST likely gonna pop
12:51 pm Carol B : Man $CLVS when?
12:55 pm Mathew Waterfall : $XOM looking sickly here. Still in the channel I have drawn in, would touch bottom of said cahnnel at 89.8
12:56 pm Mathew Waterfall : And now making lows lol. This should be rallying with oil and the overall market, I guess people are spooked by recent tillerson news or something
12:57 pm Curtis M : I think the market is off in a number of ways – just my opinion thos
12:57 pm Mathew Waterfall : Some weird divergences that don’t make sense to me here. Another reason I’m not in a rush to trade today
01:00 pm Mathew Waterfall : $MNKD gettin frisky
01:00 pm Mathew Waterfall : Trimming some of my position
01:10 pm Curtis M : $CLVS PT Stifel raise to 52
01:14 pm Curtis M : $CLVS 1:20 EST estimate for open
01:23 pm Dani M : $TAC halted news
01:32 pm Mathew Waterfall : $IWM trying. Higher high would confirm. Failure of that not pretty IMO
01:37 pm Carol B : Looking at $CLVS here
01:43 pm Mathew Waterfall : $IWM loses 136.81 and I’m out small call position. It will be for a small loss but price action isn’t great. Will come back to it later
01:48 pm Carol B : Long $DUST for a start
01:51 pm Slav O : $MNKD HOD
01:52 pm Mathew Waterfall : $CLF eyes on long term fib at 8.61. Liking jan calls there if it gets there. Currently showing some small signs of life
01:55 pm Mathew Waterfall : Legging in. First rounf $CLF jan13 10c’s @.24. These are buy and forget just like 11’s I am already holding
02:00 pm Curtis M : Grabbing coffee back in 10
02:18 pm John M : I think i fell asleep
02:18 pm Curtis M : $STUDY
02:21 pm Curtis M : Buy Christmas presents 🙂
02:28 pm Mathew Waterfall : Thanks for reminding me. I’m now scanning amazon for something last minute for the lady lol
02:29 pm Curtis M : ha
02:29 pm Drew M : Terrorist attacks seem to be up.
02:30 pm Curtis M : oh my ya true
02:44 pm Mathew Waterfall : Only thing I’m really watching now is $CLF for another possible add at 8.65-8.61. Would like to see how it handles the close so not in a big hurry.
02:45 pm Dani M : $ENPH alive
02:58 pm Darnel T : $MNKD strong afternoon
03:02 pm Drew M : Done for day!
03:13 pm Mathew Waterfall : Quiet day for me as well. Don’t expect any more trades into the close, and realy don’t feel rushed to put many trades on before the end of the year. Hoping to keep melting up a bit here but I’m pretty small overall
03:13 pm Mathew Waterfall : It’s easy to get chopped up in sideways markets especially trading options
03:14 pm Curtis M : Yep I’m just doing paperwork
03:14 pm Michael P : Cya guys!
03:24 pm Mathew Waterfall : $SPY bounce into the close? Any guesses?
03:25 pm Mathew Waterfall : 225.45 is my no position guess
03:39 pm Mathew Waterfall : Damn $SGY! Didn’t they go BK a while back? Just noticed that one on the watch list
03:39 pm Curtis M : lol i think so
03:49 pm MarketMaven M : See ya all tomorrow!!!
03:49 pm Jack D : catcha
04:00 pm Curtis M : Well have a great night folks I’m gonna shut er down and go decorate a tree lol – best!

You can follow along with public calls our algorithms post on Twitter here:

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Article Topics: $TNXP, $XGTI, $SGY, $GSAT, Compound Trading, Trading Lessons, Results, Wall Street, Stocks, Stock Market, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Investing, Chat Room, Trading Results, $CBMX, $JUNO, $UWT,  $GLD $GDX $USOIL $WTIC $SPY $DXY $VIX $GDXJ $NUGT $DUST $JNUG $JDST $GC_F $USO $UCO $SCO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP $SPY S&P 500

 

 


My Stock Trading Plan for Monday Dec 19, 2016 in Chat room. $XGTI, $GSAT, $TNXP, $USOIL, $WTI, $GOLD, $GLD, $GDX, $USD/JPY, $SPY, $SILVER, $SLV, $SI_F, $VIX, $UVXY $TVIX $NG_F… more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session!

Important Notices:

If you have reviewed the morning swing trade newsletter much of it is contained herein this week.

If you are not reviewing the post market trade reports along with this please do so. We assume our trading room subscribers do review it everyday and as such there will be information often in that report that is applicable and not in this premarket report. You will find the post market reports on our blog daily before this one is published.

REPORTING: This will be another quick report. The market is settling in now from an algorithmic modelling perspective and we expect all charting for all algorithms to be done and published again through-out day today and published prior to tomorrow market open.

Current Holds:

$CBMX, $JUNO, $UWT (deep dive)

Market Outlook:

As mentioned above; all algos (Oil, SPY, Gold, Silver, Dollar, VIX) have hit their targets now so we are running calculation targets for all six algos for all time charting time-frames and expect these reports to start rolling out today and before market open tomorrow (we’re running them right now). WE SEE INFLECTION HERE – it may last a while – a pause – but it is either here right now or VERY VERY close.

Morning Momo:

$XGTI $GSAT $TNXP $EGO $BCLI $ORIG $SDRL $TRVG $DRYS $JNUG $GFI $NUGT

$TNXP +39% TNX-102 SL BTD PTSD Phase 3-Ready Drug Candidate, TNX-102 SL, Granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA
$APHB +29% P1 Data
$LOXO +15% LOXO-101 Update
$OCUL +9% Insider Buy
$CBIO +6% Mfg Agmt

$JUNO Defeats Kite Pharma’s Challenge to CAR T-Cell Patent. $KITE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/juno-therapeutics-defeats-kite-pharma-140000298.html

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts and at minimum of our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. And you will notice quickly that the algos have been undeniably accurate on many time-frames (intra-day and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80% in my trading – all publicly posted live trades). A quick hour of review at most will bring you up to date.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk – so often I avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks later in the day after the wash-out looking for a snap-back. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter ans Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $TNXP $GSAT $XGTI $CUR $APHB $BCLI $AWH $RGSE $PLX $PSTI $NVCN $GGB $JNUG $CBIO $OCLR $DRYS I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List:$JAKK, $TVIX, $AMAT, $VIIX, $BBRY, $ZNGA, $SQQQ, $ABUS, $MAR, $NVDA I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

(3) Other Watch-List: $AKAO (momentum play last week), $AGIO (recent wash-out), $SGY (recent swing), $CBMX (current swing), $JUNO (current swing), $ANF (previous wash-out on news), $SKLN (previous wash-out on news), $URBN (previous wash-out on news).

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

(5) Upgrades: I will update before market open of refer to chat room notices.

(6) Downgrades:  I will update before market open or refer to chat room notices.

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500: $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS)

Running algos today. Basic trading range – the 20 MA is turning up through 50 MA on the 5 Minute – Fibonacci levels to watch. 614 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL :

Fibonacci, $SPY, Chart

$SPY The 20 MA is turning up through 50 MA on the 5 Minute – Fibonacci levels to watch. 614 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Outlook:

As I wrote last week:

I wrote about resistance the algo alerted at 277.80. This is still in play FYI. However, the Fed will determine now naturally whether we trend up or down from where we are. My bias is up until new year BUT I WOULD BE READY because money could get caught offside. Who knows?

As pre previous and our algorithm call before election…. My bias is still to new highs but I am looking at a pull-back Christmas / Early 2017.

As above in my intro and previous, the chart ain’t broke till its broke. When its broke we’ll let you know.

My Trading Plan: Right now I am trading $XIV instead of $SPXL or $SPXS. I do this because we are in a trend of crushed volatility. Now, when that changes and volatility starts to rise again (even if $SPY is rising at the same time) then I’ll flip over to trading $SPXL and $SPXS instead of $XIV.

Volatility: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upsaide buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

$VIX, Swing Trade, Chart

$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upsaide buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

Outlook:

As I wrote this week:

Looking for possible record lows before Christmas.

As above, I am thinking opportunity comes between Christmas and Trump, and by the way, when $VIX spikes the easiest play is short short short. FYI.

CNN Fear and Greed Index: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

My Trading Plan for Volatility: I will likely follow that trend with $TVIX $UVXY $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events. SHORT $VIX SPIKES!

Currencies and Other Global Markets: $DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $USD/JPY, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP

$DXY, US Dollar, $UUP, Chart, Swing Trading

$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP

As I wrote over and over again since July 2016 when our algo locked the math in:

BE VERY CAREFUL LISTING TO THE $USD/JPY bears – they have been feeding misery to followers for many weeks – the chart is not broke – price is currently at support and there could easily be another leg up – nobody knows but the trend is your friend!

THIS IS STILL SUPER BULLISH!!!

My Trading Plan for Currencies / Global Markets: Waiting, waiting, waiting. $USDJPY CHART IS NOT BROKEN! IT IS A BULL UNTIL IT IS NOT…

Gold: $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD). Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

Gold, Chart, Swing Trade

Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

Per recent posts:

Rosie the Gold Algo target call HIT!

My Trading Plan for Gold: Short term there could be a pretty good pop around the Fed, but I don’t expect it would last. It could pop to the top of the algo quadrant but I don’t think it would run past – NOT YET ANYWAY. So who know’s I may play a short term scenario – Fed / market reaction dependent.

I am waiting for the trend reversal. We are very close to the price target at the bottom of that quadrant at 1133.00 ish. The initial wide frame target Rosie the algo nailed but there has been a wait and see for a reversal because of one more possible leg down. Getting very close IMO.

I haven’t started to take trades yet because I am waiting for “price – trigger – trade” set-ups. I will start chewing around the edges of stocks like $NUGT and $GLD likely. The idea is to get on the right side of the trade and trend.

WE SHOULD BE ALMOST THERE! GET READY! LIKELY BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND TRUMP POWER TRANSFER! CHARTS COMING!

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock). When the trend reversal confirms I will post all the Gold equity picks here.

Silver $SI_F: $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Silver, Swing Trade, Chart

SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

Per previous;

Yesterday Silver tanked real hard! Good thing we’ve been sitting on our hands awaiting inflection point here.

Same as Gold – we’re waiting for a decision from market so we can get algo targets.

My Plan for Trading Silver: same

Same as Gold, I’m waiting for the “price – trigger – trade” set-ups… I am going to start chewing around the edges of stocks when set-up confirms like $USLV and $SLV attempting to get on right side of trend trade.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock). Same here, when trend reversal occurs I will post equity picks here.

Crude Oil FX : $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $GUSH, $ERX, $DRIP, $ERY, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, $CL_F)

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy - Sell Trigger, Crude, Oil

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

Outlook:

Last week Tuesday algo target at 4:30 hit and Wednesday 10:30 AM both targets hit to the cent and second and Friday Algo target was a miss.

Trading Plan: I am in here on three entries – deep.

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. High Short Interest – $CRC, $EPE, $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP, $ATW, $SGY. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

Natural Gas $NG_F $NATGAS ($UGAZ, $DGAZ):

Per last week:

Hit resistance as I thought and alerted.

Natural Gas hit heavy resistance, came off, now at a Fibonacci support. $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ

ON WATCH!!! This could get a considerable pop in to late Wednesday and even as far as in to late Monday next week is possible!!!

Natural gas lost that Fib support yesterday so now I am watching lower supports. I still think there is a possibility for a pop just after Fed speak!

ON CLOSE WATCH!

Study:

Now that a number of blog posts are being unlocked, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for traders to review them (especially new traders).

If you are trading relying on our charting or algorithms as trade indicators you should read this recent article,

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Article Topics:  $XGTI, $GSAT, $TNXP, Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom, Small Cap Oil, $CBMX, $JUNO, $GOLD, $SILVER, $USD/JPY, $USOIL $WTI, $VIX, $SPY, $NATGAS, $DWT, $UWT, $SLV, $GLD, $DXY


Good morning swing traders and welcome to our weekly swing trading newsletter for the week of Dec 19, 2016!

Don’t hesitate to email us at info@compoundtrading.com anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private mesage Curt in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.

The information below can be quite involved so we don’t mind assisting as needed!

Please review previous swing newsletter here: https://compoundtrading.com/weekly-swing-trade-member-newsletter-dec-12-2016/

My primary seven swing set-ups this week are:

$SPY S&P 500

S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

This is one of the best swing set-ups on $SPY and it is really simple (for tighter ranges please refer to FREEDOM the SPY Algo).

When the 200 and 20 MA cross on the 1 Hr use it as buy and sell triggers. Simple.

$SPY, Chart

S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

FX: $USOIL $WTI

You can use a number of instruments to trade oil such as FX $USOIL $CL_F CL $UWT $DWT $USO $UCO $SCO and more…. I am using $UWT and $DWT.

Per last newsletter:

The important thing with oil is to watch the Fibonacci levels, trend lines (diagonal and horizontal), your moving averages and your trading widths (margins / pivots). I can’t discuss the algorithm here but I can refer you to Epic the Oil Algo twitter feed for various public posts.

Widths / trading range pivots – Because oil is in a break-out you want to take your long positions at the bottom of the yellow lines and I as I mentioned in the last swing newsletter I WOULD NOT short oil in an uptrend at the top of the yellow lines. Wait to short it when it is in a confirmed downtrend – and now is not a confirmed downtrend.

Here is the long position I entered this week in $UWT:

Crude oil. Swing Trade

Buy trigger alerted to members last week (green arrow) Crude algo intra work sheet 935PM Dec 18 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

So now my long position is still long as long as price is over 20 MA on the 4 hour chart (per below) or I may exit at any time. The point is, the next entry trigger I will use long wth $UWT is when the price goes below the 20 MA on the 4 hour chart and then price crosses back up through the 4 hour. This (in addition to support and resistance indicators I gave you last week) is a prmary indicator for long buys in crude oil right now.

20 MA, Buy Trigger, Crude Oil, Chart

20 MA on 4 Hour Buy – Sell Trigger. Crude algo intra work sheet 407 AM Dec 19 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT #algo

$GOLD – $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG

Here is what I wrote last week:

So last week I said;

Here again I cannot share the proprietary algorithm components of Rosie’s algo but I can share with you the publicly posted data. Rosie predicted in July that Gold would hit this range but also warned of a 90% chance that Gold would have to hit the bottom of a quadrant on her charting. That would put Gold near 1133.00. I am waiting to see if this occurs and I will take a long trade in $NUGT at that time with a normal swing stop of about 4% and then if uptrend confirms I will scale in at 3 stages. Initial order 2000 shares the 5000 then 10000 then 20000 adding at pullbacks.

The idea in swing trading is to catch the trend reversal and then scale in when confirmed.

Good thing I waited! Price has downtrended since. It isn’t at my preferred 1133.00 so I am going to watch – if it starts to take off upward I will start to nibble with long positions with tight stops. No particular level that I would do that – just if it started to move for any more than a day and it looked like it had momentum. Then slowly enter. BUT THE PREFERRED play is to wait for that 1133.00 WHICH COULD COME QUICK NOW.

Here is the simple chart of the day for Gold swings:

Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

When the price of Gold turns back up above the 100 MA (blue line) on the 1 week chart that is as simple an indicator swings as you can get. And sell when it turns down below. I am watching this and other indicators per previous. For tighter tighter time-frames refer to Rosie the Algo subscription  – but for swings I would use this indicator.

Gold, Chart, Swing Trade

Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 100 MA 1 WK Buy Sell Trigger. Gold algo intra work sheet 1022 PM Dec 18 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG #algo

$SILVER $SLV $USLV $DSLV

As I wrote last week:

Silver is in exactly the same position as Gold – wait for the Gold confirmation before entering IMO. Use the same scaling principals. Watch SuperNova Silver twitter feed too.

I have always said that Silver will hold up better in a downtrend, but it doesn’t mean you take a long position yet. Sure, it came up a bit since last week, but the idea is to catch the tren reversal and scale in to it for a large gain over time.

Here is a simple chart of the day for Silver swing trading:

SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

So this is an indicator set-up for Silver swing trading that I will be using. Buy signal is when price is over 200 and 20 MA on the 1 week chart and sell signal is when price is under the 20 MA.

For tighter tighter time-frames refer to SuperNova Silver Algo subscription – but for swings I would use this indicator.

Silver, Swing Trade, Chart

SILVER Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 1 Week Buy over 200 and 20 MA Sell Under 20 MA $SL_F $SLV $USLV, $DSLV

$VIX

Last Week I Wrote:

I am going to enter a long position in $UVXY or $TVIX for a short term swing (less than 10 days hopefully) at as close to 12.20 as I can get – if I can’t get that I am looking at 12.77.

Considering the geo political environment I won’t be shorting the $VIX unless it gets really extended to topside – which it is not right now.

So it came down to my price target and I didn’t take a trade – I watched. Then it spiked and I would have had a short term gain. Now it’s sitting back at my buy target area and I am going to watch.

If it starts upward I will likely take a trade long in $TVIX or $UVXY and exit by ratcheting up my stops as it goes. Where exactly where I take that trade? I don’t know. But I’m getting more confident with it because of two reasons.

1. At the end of day Friday the there was $VIX insurance buying even while $SPY was spiking at end of day and $XIV (which is the opposite of $VIX) wasn’t moving like it normally does when there is a $SPY spike. Now, $VIX isn’t determined by $SPY but it is a signficant factor. So when they move in this way it is time to pay attention.

2. ALSO, the CNN fear and greed indicator is near all time highs for greed. If you study it out there is a correlation – when greed is this high 9 times out of 10 there is a spike in $VIX because if nothing else investors start taking out insurance. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Now, if the $VIX does spike, and the spike is significant I will short the $VIX because that is always easy money – but that is something that has to be determined on an intra level and I can’t give you levels here on a swing alert.

Here is a keep it simple swing trade for the $VIX on the long side and the short side that I will be using:

$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upside buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

It doesn’t get much easier than that for long and short side of $VIX – but you do need to babysit it close because it can swing drastic – so set stops.

$VIX, Swing Trade, Chart

$VIX Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 50 MA cross 200 MA to upside buy and when it turns under 20 MA sell short. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

$DXY – US Dollar ($UUP)

$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP

The simplest swing trading indicator on the US Dollar I was able to find. 200 MA and 50 MA cross on the 1 day chart for long and short positions.

$DXY, US Dollar, $UUP, Chart, Swing Trading

$DXY Keep it Simple Chart of Day. 200 MA and 50 MA 1 Day Cross Buy Sell Trigger $UUP

$JUNO

Last week I wrote this:

This is a wash-out snap-back swing that I really like. It is up in premarket today but I believe there is a lot of room here. My timeframe is 3 months and I expect a lot of that gap fill to come in to play at 29.83. It has resistance at 22.87 but I don’t think it will hold. One of my favorite swings right now.

So this one didn’t do as well, but I am holding and I will enter with more of a position if it gets back up off it’s feet and starts trending up. Like I wrote, my time-frame is 3 months so I will be patient.

So $JUNO has continued to be soft… I am still in and holding – I will be looking for a long add when I get solid buy triggers. I will update mid week if I take a long position trade.

$CBMX

I wrote this last week:

This IMO opinion is a fantastic opportunity – but it does have its risk. You wll have to research the company on your own and make a determination for yourself. But if you find after your research that you think it’s a decent hold for a month or two it is one of the best swing plays on the market at this price IMO. I’m looking to add today to my position.

Well this one worked out well too, I am currently adding in near the 2.90 level. A mid term hold for (3 – 6 months) and I expect close to 50% gain on it. But it is high risk so set stops.

I am still in this. I will be adding to my position long if and when price nears the yellow line on chart.

$CBMX Swing Trade Chart

$CBMX Swing Trade Chart

This comment from last week remains the same:

That’s about it for this week. I am waiting for the market inflection to settle down and a little more of the indices to settle on the other side of this Trump trade before scaling in to any indices plays and the like. But as I said I am running about 40 charts on plays I am looking at and hope to start adding some of those for next Sunday!

Have a great week and if you have any questions email anytime!

Best of luck!

Email us with any questions!

Article Topics; Swing Trading, $JUNO, $CBMX, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX


S&P 500 $SPY Trading Chart Update Monday Dec 19 $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS) Chart and Algorithm Observations

Good morning! My name is Freedom the $SPY Algo. Welcome to my new S&P trade report.

IMPORTANT NOTICES:

Short Term Pause: As I warned previous, the machines have stopped trading (for the mos part) as of noon Dec 14. The resistance I alerted on a number of occasions is where the machines stopped trading.

NEW: Market Inflection? We consider this a high probability point of market inflection. So we are going to take this opportunity (and being that is the end of the year and we plan to do this with each algorithm model each year at this time) to reset / apply all our indicators and establish new targets for the new year going forward. Between now and Jan 1 I will be introducing new traditional indicators daily to my reporting (which will allow our subscribers to see and be a part of the process) and by the time Jan 1 is upon us we will have sorted through all the primary indicators that affect $SPY trading, I will have given each a weight (in terms of how significant the indicator is to be considered within my algorithm) and we will then have algorithmic trading ranges and targets for all time frames (1 min, 3, 5, 15, 30, 1 hr, 4 hr, 1 day, 5 day, 1 month). We can then track my call hit rate % performance for 2017 also. This is the same process the other algorithms that have been developed before mine have undergone. The bottom – by Jan 1 the complete algorithmic modeling will be done for $SPY and our members will partake in / witness the process over the coming ten days or so.   

How My Algorithm Works and Availability:

I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on individual merit) such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and other mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of the S&P500 (more specifically $SPY). In early 2017 I will also provide algo indicators and charting for $ES_F.

Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered as one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.

My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and a recent post by my developer that explains more about “Why Our Algorithms are Different than Most”.

I Am In Very Early Stage Development

My algorithm is the fifth in the line of six that my developers are working with – which means I am in the very early stages. So you will find my charting below to be very simple (relative to say the first algo they developed EPIC the Oil algo). So if you find that my initial charting does not assist you with an edge in your trading please let the office know by emal info@compoundtrading.com within 30 days at most of signing on so they can refund you. If you do chose that option, you can always check back early 2017 when my algorithm processes / indicators for your trading edge will be very extensive (mid Jan).

$SPY Trading Observations:

$SPY Hit the resistance alerted to members prior to Fed and has not recovered since. 522 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

$SPY, Trading, Chart

$SPY Hit the resistance alerted to members prior to Fed and has not recovered since. 522 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Keep it Simple Chart of the Day:

S&P 500 Keep it Simple Chart of Day. Buy sell 200 20 MA cross on 1 Hr. $SPY $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL – or you can trade on tighter MA indications per below:

Building the Probabilities for Buy Sell Signals in Algorithmic Model – We Start With Simple MA’s

With our algorithmic modeling our development philosophy has been to keep it simple. One way we do this is to start with the MA’s and how they might become predictable buy and sell triggers on various time-frames – once we have reviewed them all (which I won’t include all in these posts because there are many hundreds of variations and these posts would become books) we then calculate the win rate % for each win / loss for each time frame for each MA. Simple right? It actually is – the more difficult part is actually processing the information.

Once we have the MA data processed for all time frames we then have buy / sell triggers with probabilities attached to each for our buy / sell alerts. We can then move on to other indicators such a Fibonacci and many more (all of which become part of our probability set for algorithmic targets). So for the next few days we will review some of the more considerable MA’s a trader can look at.

For shorter time-frame trading, below are tighter trading considerations than the chart above:

$SPY Tighter trading buy 20 MA crosses 200 to upside – sell 20 MA crosses 50 downside on 1 Hour. 538 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Trading tighter has the entries long when 20 MA crosses 200 MA to upside with a sell / short signal when price is under 20 MA and 20 MA crosses 50 MA to downside and then when 20 crosses 50 MA to upside again take the long. This has proven to be a predictable trade (analyzing the last 12 months) – as long as trade isn’t choppy to side.

$SPY, Chart, 20 MA, 50 MA, 100 MA, 200 MA

$SPY Tighter trading buy 20 MA crosses 200 to upside – sell 20 MA crosses 50 downside. 538 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

$SPY Tighter trading buy 20 MA crosses 50 MA to upside on 5 Min. 6 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Trading long when the 20 MA (light blue) crosses the 50 MA (purple) on a shorter time-frame (the 5 minute chart) can provide a moderately predictable intra-day sniping trigger for the long side but is not nearly as predictable as the set-ups above when you back test the win ratio and win range going back 2 years on the chart.

$SPY, 20 MA, 50 MA, 5 Min, Chart

$SPY Tighter trading buy 20 MA crosses 50 MA to upside on 5 Min. 6 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Fibonacci:

$SPY The 20 MA is turning up through 50 MA on the 5 Minute – Fibonacci levels to watch. 614 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Fibonacci, $SPY, Chart

$SPY The 20 MA is turning up through 50 MA on the 5 Minute – Fibonacci levels to watch. 614 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

$SPY Close-Up. The 20 MA is turning up through 50 MA on the 5 Minute – Fibonacci levels to watch. 618 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Caution here because $SPY is consolidating after a run-up – but the indicator is there tentatively nonetheless!

$SPY, Close Up, Chart

$SPY Close-Up. The 20 MA is turning up through 50 MA on the 5 Minute – Fibonacci levels to watch. 618 AM Dec 19 $ES_F $SPXS $SPXL

Alpha Algo Trading Lines:

Over next ten days we will establish these based on indicators above and market inflection end of year price action.

Alpha Algo Trading Targets:

Over next ten days we will establish these based on indicators above and market inflection end of year price action.

Intra Day Algo Trading Quadrants:

Over next ten days we will establish these based on indicators above and market inflection end of year price action.

Time / Price Cycle Change Forecast:

Over next ten days we will establish these based on indicators above and market inflection end of year price action.

Good luck with your trades and look forward to seeing you in the room!

Freedom the $SPY Algo

Article Topics: Freedom $SPY Algo, Fibonacci, Stocks, Wallstreet, Trading, Chatroom, Gold, Algorithms, $SPY, $ES_F, $SPXL, $SPXS