My Day Trading Results Re-Cap

Today for me was the “miss the perfect setups trigger day” – but I still ended up on the positive side. For me it’s all about 1% a day compounded (and hopefully someday soon 3% – it’s getting close). If you haven’t seen my compound chart of 1% per day starting w 10k compounds to 1.14MM you should check out https://compoundtrading.com/lead-trader/ and I think I’ll do a full post on it soon. But bottom line is that when you focus on simple 1% days (understanding compounding money principles) it is a way less stressful and more forgiving way to trade. You avoid the hype… the pumps… all the company DD research… the risk… and on and on. You just need to know why equities trigger an intra-day spike (trigger there and watch for 1% or not) and from there it’s pretty easy.

Anyway, I had a number of setups ready right before the bell and missed the better ones (got distracted). So, I am learning that balancing day trading and a live chat room/broadcast startup requires more focus during market hours.

Here’s what happened (my wins and losses), so hopefully it helps your trading.

$UNIS

The first setup I looked at. It was a morning scan MOMO (morning momentum) possibility from a few days ago that I thought will get lift or drop (the 3 day rule http://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-the-3-day-rule-when-trading-stocks.aspx). For short sellers this is an ideal set-up – but sometimes they surprise and run so I like to watch for that because if the shorts get caught on a 3 day rule and it goes opposite – the win can be really good.

$UNIS

And, it just faded – so I left it alone.

$UA – Under Armour

Next up was Under Armour. This one had a bad downdraft on earnings / downgrade. https://www.thestreet.com/story/13868610/1/under-armour-ua-stock-retreats-cowen-downgrades-on-outlook.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

So, another morning play I will use (that normally works well) to get 1% – 3% quick pops is timing the bottom up spike. It got a really good downdraft here at 9:51 and the stock dropped.

At 10:10 I hit the buy.

Added at 10:13

10:19 I was out for a small gain – I noted it as a small loss on twitter but didn’t go back and do a correction because my day was so hectic (you will find my alerts sometimes distracted lol). Anyway, average buy 32.82 and out at 33.07 for .25 cents on 400 shares / 100.00 – not the 1% I was looking for).

$UA Stock Trade

$UA Stock Trade

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear ETF

Then I posted a perfect set-up with the small cap bear ETF I’ve been watching – around the election especially I’m watching this one like (it should be a hawk) – BUT FOR THE SECOND TIME in less than a week I was distracted and missed my trigger – it was such a nice trade – easy 3% or better. And frankly, there’s no excuse – as easy as taking candy from a baby.

And here’s where I would have triggered and it was sooo perfect. Absolutely no excuse – it was a text book trigger on the 1.

$TZA Stock Trade Trigger Missed

$TZA Stock Trade Trigger Missed

$DXY

So when I seen the US Dollar Index at support… that was my first trigger alert for $TZA – because the $DXY is the $TZA killer…

$VIX

Then I was on to the $VIX – which was my SECOND trigger missed – I was looking at a $TVIX or $UVXY intra-day trade – and yup – distracted and missed it. Again… so perfect. I posted when $VIX was threatening resistance and $DXY was at support and $SPY was in downdraft mode… simple simple simple. #distracted ugh.

$SPY

Here was the downdraft in $SPY and the resistance above… and when $SPY is in downdraft till things sort out.

$VIX

So here’s where $VIX broke resistance and all I had to do was wait for the back-test and possible consolidation… but ya… nope.

$USOIL $WTI

Then came the oil report… my thinking was I wasn’t sure if the upper algo target or the lower was more likely – I didn’t think we were going to see a draw down… but EPIC the oil Algo had the lower alpha algo target as most probable… anyway… almost both targets hit but I wasn’t confident in it so I though I’ll go for the build side of the bet with a volatility play and entered $TVIX with a super-tight stop – a wham – it got hit instantly for a small loss. Not the normal way I’d play the oil report FYI. So I was down .8 cents on 400 shares or (32.00) – so at this point 68.00 up on the day.

$OPGN

Then I took scanner alert trade in $OPGN in at 1.16 out 1.22 within mins at 9,000 shares / 540.00 – now I’m up 608.00 on the day.

$OPGN stock trade

$OPGN stock trade

$WTI / $USOIL

Ended up EPIC’s oil calls were almost perfectly spot on.. again I was distracted and was a little confused on my twitter feed posts etc.

So there’s the beautiful $VIX trade I missed with $TVIX

$TVIX missed stock trade (ETN)

$TVIX missed stock trade (ETN) – soooo perfectly set-up.

$UGAZ

Then I went long $UGAZ. This is another algorithm we’re working on that is on-deck. The algo is saying 44% today hit bottom (which means 44 out of 100 times – so the idea is to get a probability from the algorithm so the trader can decide to trigger or not)… anyway… the algorithm is also saying that 46% there is another leg down (or 46 times out of a 100). So I thought I’d take a trade and should have (because yes I had it set-up) entered earlier in day for a better gain. Nonetheless I got a decent little intra-day trade.

So my entry average fill was at 34.19 and exit at 34.95 (got real lucky in that time frame exiting snipe – should have been about .10 less) for .76 cents on 500 shares / 380.00 or 920.00 on the day.

I know with many small accounts for US citizens there are certain rules with leverage and 3 trade rules etc. I regularly start a 10k account and build… but I often trade over 10k closer to 16k and sell before the end of the day. The specifics of why my broker in Canada lets me do that I’m not sure and how that works for US citizens – but I’m going to look in to that so I really understand better.

I will put out a pre-market trade plan in the morning!

Stay blessed!

PS Here’s my running win rate.

 


Welcome!

We are looking forward to our pre-launch next week in the trading room (chat and live broadcast). This week we will start with light fare pre-market newsletters and after-market reports – over the coming weeks the reports will expand considerably in detail and depth, but for now we will keep it light to get in to the flow.

This morning I won’t publish a trade plan for VIX, Gold, Silver, SPY and Oil… but will increasingly provide a trade plan in these morning newsletters over the coming days (the ramp up). What I will provide is my basic trade plan for oil (you will find below) and comment generally on the others.

$VIX

I am looking for significant volatility between now and the election and even after. So I am watching day to day. I play $XIV $TVIX $UVXY and will explain in more detail as the coming days in to our pre-launch come.

$SPY

I am currently not trading any securities against our algorithmic calculations with SPY. Of all the algo calculations we are processing right now – this one is most uneventful. I am hoping that after the election this changes. So of the algo calculations and trading plans you will see us develop in more detail on these reports leading up to our launch, the $SPY algo is lagging the others. It’s coming – but the pre-election environment is not the best time-frame for algorithmic trading specific to S&P 500. The intra-day stuff, sure… and that will be covered in our trade room coming up.

Silver and Gold.

Right now I am sitting on my hands. I was waiting for a level down in both to retest previous support. I will say that my trade plan is VERY bullish come just before or after election. But still waiting. Our algos have been testing very precise with both so I am excited to trade these (and associated equities) in the coming weeks.

$DXY

The US Dollar. I have been posting for some time on my twitter feed about an impending break-out (which is here). We haven’t posted a lot about our algo development with $DXY, but I can tell you we are testing one and will be releasing it within a month or so. It is testing VERY precise and look forward to trading associated equities with it in our trading room over the next few weeks. I posted yesterday that I thought it should rest for a bit… and it has – it is now testing previous resistance to upside. I would be VERY cautious with it and watch for more lift especially if you are trading oil related equities etc… crude oil reacted in a strong way to the Dollar as the day went on yesterday. Early in the day not so much but as the day went on the affects of the Dollar (and obviously OPEC chatter) seemed to weigh on crude (it was a delayed effect).

EPIC the Oil Algo. FX: $USOIL $WTI (can be used as a trader’s edge for futures, $DWTI, $UWTI, $CL_F and more).

We just published the adjusted forecasts for EPIC the Algo alpha targets for Tuesday 10:30 AM and we will revise the Friday 1:00 PM ET forecasts soon. They are posted to EPIC’s twitter feed https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo.

These forecasts are simply targets that run along the algo trading pivot or trend-lines. Algos (machines) will move price from target to target in accordance to market direction. As such, trading with this type of system is much better done on an intra-day basis (hence why our trading room is opening). Nonetheless, in the meantime the targets can be used to trade against. So in our charts you will notice red trend-lines (this are the alpha algo trend-lines), you will also notice traditional charting diagonal trend-lines in blue (the thicker they are the more important they are) and also horizontal traditional trend-lines (purple). We also publish the charts with the 20, 50, 100, 200 day traditional MA. What is missing are the algo quadrants that allowing for precise intra-day trading (these will be on the charts in the trading room for each subscriber to each algorithm). What you also don’t see on the charts are other traditional indicators such as VWAP, MAC cross-over etc… we do not publish them to the charts because quite frankly there are many and our charting is “busy” enough.

Crude, Oil, WTI, Stocks

Crude algo intra work sheet 748 AM ET Oct 26, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Above is the most recent crude chart. The arrow on the far right shows a traditional charting TL that is obviously critical to the support of pricing in the current time / price cycle that crude is in right now. The middle arrow is pointing at a traditional horizontal trend-line (purple) that has just been breached. The upper arrow is a diagonal trend-line that is also critical on the upper side. As long as the price of oil stays between the upper blue T line and the lower t line nothing has changed. I would even venture to say the lower purple horizontal support at the bottom of the chart above keeps this time / price cycle in play. And don’t forget, we’re waiting for more “deal” news out of the oil boys soon.

While crude remains in this trading zone I will continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. However, I do trade around the important weekly reports and do utilize the algo quadrants that we will be discussing in the trading room. If the trading range is breached, we then reset and find the new range and trade in it. That’s basically how I’ve traded ($UWTI and $DWTI) with near 95% accuracy for some time.

Watch the support and resistance trend-lines I have explained after the oil report this morning!!! This will establish whether oil remains in this trade range or not. If it does not we will post updates to EPIC’s Twitter feed regularly of course!

Chatter this morning about oil:

S&P GLOBAL PLATTS PREVIEW OF U.S. EIA DATA: LIKELY TO SHOW CRUDE STOCKS ROSE 400,000 BARRELS

https://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2016/102516/no

Oil prices are too gloomy on chance of OPEC deal

So that is my basic trade plan – I know it is light and in coming days it will become much more precise and informative. We’re working around the clock right now to get the trade room up so I appreciate the support from the early subscribers (guys and gals I am happy to report) and you can look forward to detail, detail, detail over the coming days!

Stay blessed.

Curt

PS

Early movers..

 

 

 

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