Volatility (VIX) Market Time Cycle Update for 2020/21. Part 1 – A Review of Recent Volatility History.
Volatility time cycles affect the financial markets globally. Our time cycle work focuses on Volatility as a foundation and our trading in other key instruments reflects this. Other key instruments are SP500 $SPY $SPX, Crude Oil $CL_F $USO $USOIL, Gold $GC_F $GLD, Silver $SLV, US Dollar $DXY $UUP, Bitcoin $BTC.
We also weigh our stock swing trading (position trading) heavily on our time cycle work in Volatility.
In recent months and years our time cycle work has predicted the primary volatility spikes in markets with uncanny accuracy, this has significantly bolstered our Profit & Loss in Volatility trading, commodities, stocks and crypto.
This series of chart model updates and guidance provides the most recent code break updates for Volatility and the other instruments of trade listed above. First lets look look at Volatility (VIX).
Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked in a primary time cycle trading in the low 80’s between March 7-17 2020. It was trading below 20.00s for sometime prior and then volatility spiked.
Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked trading low 80’s between March 7 – 17 2020 trading below 20.00s for sometime prior #volatility #swingtrading #timecycles
This presented our trading team and subscribers the opportunity to add to our long positioning in $VXX (short term volatility) and $OVX (oil volatility) in advance of the spike. It also allowed for us to prepare for a significant market sell-off. We closed all long positions in equities four days prior to the SP500 starting it’s COVID sell – off. We had opportunity to the short in size equities such as MasterCard (MA), Nike (NKE), WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) and many more for significant gains.
Last #timecycle we sold off longs 4 days b4 turn down, hammered short Mastercard $MA, WYNN $WYNN, NIKE $NKE etc & long $VIX $OVX at lows when hardly anyone was positioning same, then covered shorts in to turn, long $BA etc recent rally (check dates) #timecycles #swingtrading
Last #timecycle we sold off longs 4 days b4 turn down, hammered short Mastercard $MA, WYNN $WYNN, NIKE $NKE etc & long $VIX $OVX at lows when hardly anyone was positioning same, then covered shorts in to turn, long $BA etc recent rally (check dates) #timecycles #swingtrading pic.twitter.com/BpVaQW8cxQ
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) March 25, 2020
$OVX spiked from the 20.00s to 330.00s and even flashed in to the 500.00s. We were adding long positioning in $OVX in the 20.00s and selling as the price spiked in to 330.00s. We didn’t hold to the 500.00s. We also had opportunity to profit from $VXX in the volatility run-up.
There were many other trades around this time cycle that benefited our performance greatly. Look for our Profit and Loss Statements soon to be release (posted to the main page of www.compoundtrading.com).
More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week.
More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week #swingtrading #VIX
The inflection points between significant cycle peaks are areas of possible spikes. We recently adjusted for this possible inflection and it paid dividends, nothing like the primary March 2020 time cycle spike, but paid us and helped adjust various other swing trade holdings.
I have been reporting to our members for some time that this season of time cycles (2020 – 2025) would see significantly more volatility within volatility, a compression of time cycle duration(s) and viciousness of the cycle peaks. The most recent “inflection” is evidence of the compressed timing of cycles (volatility within volatility cycles and the time between spikes).
Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.
Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.
Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX
During the last time cycle we we buying oil volatility on every dip at near bottoms knowing where the time cycle peak was, $OVX was in the 20’s and rocketed in to the 300s fast, we didn’t hit that by coincidence. Our $VIX model is clear, the cycles are very clear. #timecycles
During the last time cycle we we buying oil volatility on every dip at near bottoms knowing where the time cycle peak was, $OVX was in the 20's and rocketed in to the 300s fast, we didn't hit that by coincidence. Our $VIX model is clear, the cycles are very clear. #timecycles pic.twitter.com/SZ8vzMQwRg
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 1, 2020
So this is an example of how the primary volatility indicator $VIX time cycles can be used for other related market instruments and also why it is important to have the time cycle models for the other instruments you trade as well, in this instance crude oil. What a trade that was.
Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX
We also use $TVIX and / or $UVXY on short time frames right in to the time cycles. Instruments you do not want to hold.
$TVIX up 41% today, pays HUGE to know your Time Cycles, also protects your ass ets knowing the time cycles $VIX #volatilitytrading #timecycles
$TVIX up 41% today, pays HUGE to know your Time Cycles, also protects your ass ets knowing the time cycles $VIX #volatilitytrading #timecycles pic.twitter.com/oTfy2E2lem
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 11, 2020
So that is a review of what has happened in volatility so far in 2020 and next we need to look at what’s next in volatility trading and develop our trading strategies for volatility and related instruments.
Part 2 (premium) article for Volatility $VIX time cycles will provide the charting models, time cycle dates for primary volatility time cycles, inflection dates on watch, compressed volatility within volatility dates, support (buy zones) with timing and resistance selling zones with price targets for the dates within the cycles going in Q3 and Q4 2020 and then in to 2021.
The most recent Swing Trading Sunday $STUDY Webinar session on June 14, 2020 had a dedicated segment on volatility time cycles so in part 2 we will start with that video and then start to break open all of the trading strategies for volatility going forward.
There will be historic opportunities in these large time cycle between 2020 – 2025 as I have been saying for a number of years, do not waste it! This is a life changing season of trade for traders.
Part 2 of this article is available here for members:
As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime [email protected].
Peace and best.
Curt
Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):
- Swing Trading Performance Summary (Q4 2019, Q1 2020 Interim): Return %, Gain/Loss, Win/Loss Rate, Number of Trades.
- Swing Trading Alert Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 1543.93% Feb 1-Feb 21, 2020. $200,000.00 – $230,051.00 #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 64.45% Jan 1 – Jan 31, 2020. $200,000.00 – $208119.00. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 246.31% Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2019. $200,000.00 – $220,898.50. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 315.32% Nov 1 – Nov 30, 2019. $200,000.00 – $224,130.16. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 62.69% October 2019. $100,000.00 – $103,970.20. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss Annualized 355.22%. March 26 – June 28, 2017. $204,616.60 – $303,443.60. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading (Short Term Trades) Profit Loss Annualized 2,437.96%. April 3 – June 28, 2017. $17,354.69 – $37,713.16 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing and Day Trading Profit Loss – Annualized 957.90% Dec 26, 2016 – March 26, 2017. $100,000.00 – $180,347.88 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
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Article Topics; swing trading, time cycles, volatility, $VIX, $VXX, $OVX, $UVXY,, $TVIX
Short Instructional Oil Trading Strategy Article and Video.
Exactly How We Executed Day Trade for Price Reversal Intra day Oil Trade.
This strategy works for us over and over again and is alerted to our premium oil trade alert feed and in the oil trading room.
The video and article highlight the algorithmic model charting but the disciplines of trade can also be applied to conventional or classical charting when day trading crude oil.
VIDEO: Day Trading Crude Oil Intra Day Price Reversals – Oil Trading Room, “How To” Instructional.
We start below with a screen capture of the oil trading room, with a trade alert at 10:59 AM EST on watch for the support coming at the 1 hour oil charting support area of 35.37.
Intra-day oil price actually hit exactly that price and then oil price reversed for the trade to trigger. You can see clearly the signal price target perfect hit if you look 3 images down you can see it clearly on the 15 second day trading chart (1 minute trading model brought down to 15 second time frame).
Oil Trading Room – trade strategies discussed, 35.37 seems to be the decision support area on the 1 hour crude oil symmetry model.
The one hour algorithmic oil chart below is the chart that was referenced in the oil trading alert to be on watch for the price reversal expected at 35.37.
We are intent on building the best oil trading room and alert service in the world, this proprietary modeling is one example of the edge our oil traders have.
You can read more about the 8700 rules our oil trading software uses to execute trades here.
35.37 seems to be the decision support area on the 1 hour crude oil symmetry model
The chart below is the 1 minute oil daytrading model our traders use.
It is a machine grid and in the image below it is brought down to a 15 second time frame to show our traders how the software executes to the signal of progressive volume on the chart volume bars on the 15 second timeframe.
If you look at specifically where the trade long was started you will see the increased volume on 3 x 15 second time frames for the software to alert the trade to our subscribers.
Additionally, not shown, the software also requires progressive machine liquidity order flow buying identified on the EPIC IDENT system (also proprietary that you can read more about in the white paper link above).
Also you will notice that the set-up included a double bottom in oil trading price intra-day.
And finally on this chart you will see that price was using the one minute chart model support (see blue and red horizontal lines on chart).
Those four signals (progressive volume, progressive machine buying, double bottom, one minute support on chart model) created a strong enough signal to alert and execute the trade in the trading room and alert to the various feeds. The one hour support as show above also was considered in the probability analysis for execution of the trade.
For additional signals I recently wrote another oil day trading article you can find if you click here.
Oil trading strategy set-up – double bottom price intra day on 1 minute chart support (shown on 15 sec time frame) #oiltradingsetups
The five minute chart model includes time cycles for daytrading crude oil.
In this trading strategy the mid cycle point was hit perfectly on the chart at 11:00 AM. You can see that the price of oil hit the mid cycle perfectly and bounced to VWAP area and then double bottomed for the alert to be sent out to members for the trade.
Time cycles are critical in crude oil trading strategies because most of the oil trading liquidity in world markets is now traded by machines and knowing how the machines are executing trades is key. One the primary methods machines use to trade is time cycles. The video provides more in depth discussion.
Oil trading strategy set-up on 30 minute EPIC model a perfect hit to key support (trading box of quad) #daytradingoil
The EPIC ALGORTHM 30 minute chart model is shown below and the key support discussed in the video is marked with a white arrow below.
As described in the video, another key trigger for this oil trading strategy intra-day was the key support on the 30 minute chart time frame.
Also, in the video I discuss how trade had bounced progressively “up the stairs” of each support on the chart model, this is a strong signal for the trading strategy.
Oil trading strategy set-up on 30 minute EPIC model a perfect hit to key support (trading box of quad) #daytradingoil
And on the one hour chart below you can see the result of a well executed oil trading strategy, the trade went flawlessly and with ease. Intra-day oil trading without a lot of stress.
Oil trading strategy set-up on hourly symmetry chart – price support at trajectory line to oil price target #oiltradesetups
Other Links:
There is also a live raw video link of the Oil Trading Room live alerted trade as it happened – click here.
Link to screen shot of Oil Trade Alerts for this trade of Premium User Twitter feed click here.
Click here to Subscribe to Live Oil Trading Alerts: Use Code “TRIAL50” for 50% off.
Click here to Subscribe to Oil Trading Room: Use Code “TRIAL50” for 50% off.
Link to Free Articles on “How To” Day Trade Crude Oil here.
Any questions about the oil trading strategies reviewed in this article send me an email anytime at [email protected].
Thanks
Curt
Article Topics; oil trading strategies, daytrading, crude oil, oil trading room, signals, trade alerts.
Part 1 – Crude Oil Day Trade Strategy For 200 Ticks Win From Our Oil Trading Room – Step by Step Tips on How We Traded It and Alerted it Live
The main question for oil traders reading this and /or watching the instructional video should be, “How did we know that oil intra-day would most likely reverse where it did on the chart?”
The oil trading alert went out at 6:37 AM EST and the one prior to that was at 4:09 PM the day prior (Monday June 8, 2020), so it isn’t that we send out many alerts every day, we send our alerts only out when it is the most highly probable area of intra day trade for a win.
So why then at that time of day? What was happening with intra-day trade, the charting, time of day and with other signals that caused us to trade in size long at 6:37 AM EST today?
In short it was the only trade entry alert of the day, the trade was in size and it happened to be at the low price of trade on the day also.
Below are the secrets of this time tested oil trading strategy.
Important Tips for this Simple Intra-Day Crude Oil Trading Strategy
- Time of Day is Important – Today’s 200 tick oil day trade was started in the morning prior to US regular market open and after many traders around the world in different time zones (and overnight Futures traders) have finished their trading day.
- Chart Trend Lines – I teach students to always have classical charting trend lines for support and resistance ready at all times on all time-frames.
- Key Algorithmic Charting Levels – Not all oil traders have this at their disposal, but this was one key reason for our trade success today..
Time of Day.
Time of day when day trading crude oil is very important. In this trade example it was the time of day where overnight futures traders (as far as USA traders are concerned) usually finish their day as well as some traders from around the world also (depending on time zone) and day traders in the U.S. start their day.
When traders start and stop their trading day is not the only time of day consideration.
There are other time of day considerations such as regular U.S. open premarket, regular U.S. market open at 9:30 AM EST, daily settlement at 2:30 PM EST, weekly inventory statistics from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 PM EST Tuesday’s and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 10:30 AM EST on Wednesdays.
Specifically as it applies to this intra-day oil trading strategy, this trade was taken when the overnight futures traders were typically finished “taking profits or losses” on their day trade sessions and the new batch of day trader liquidity was entering the market. VERY KEY. Again, today’s oil trade was first entered and alerted at 6:37 AM EST, in size.
Below is a screen capture image from our Oil Trading Room with the day trade execution at 6:37 AM for 6 contracts entered – adding to existing 6 contracts in the long position sequence of trade.
Also in the image are some of the alerts in the trading room as the trade progressed (this is the private member oil trade chat room in Discord, there is a live charting and mic broadcast room also).
You can also see in the image the lead trader discussing another time of day coming at 9:00 AM and to be prepared to watch the possible signals of oil trade at that specific time. Time of day in oil trading is one of the best signals oil day traders can use in their strategies.
Image from Oil Trading Room with day trade execution for 6 contracts added to existing 6 contracts long #oiltradingroom
Oil trading alerts screen capture of today’s oil trade that was first entered and alerted at 6:37 AM EST, in size.
Below is a screen capture of the actual oil trading alerts feed showing the lead tech alerting the buy in crude oil.
Oil trading alert screen capture of today’s oil trade that was first entered and alerted at 6:37 AM EST, in size. #oiltradingalerts
The broker platform trade executions by our oil machine trading algorithm are shown (screen shots) in this tweet:
Crude oil trading alert feed today, deep dive early in premarket for a great 200 point rally through the day.
#OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
#oiltradingalerts #machinetrading
Trading Trend Line Support and Break Outs.
In today’s trading action there was a trend line support signal on the charting for the long position at 6:37 AM and the a trend line break later in the day for a break out to continue the rally.
First, below see the initial support area of the trend line chart for the long trade entry. This signal is from a classical 1 hour oil chart with trend lines that included the mirrored fractal trading trend lines. This “mirrored fractal trend line” is where the signal was to enter the trade.
The one hour trading time frame is a significant oil trading signal because it is a larger than say a 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 or 30 minute chart timeline for daytrading. The one hour timing can be used also for intra-week trading signals.
The mirrored trend line fractal is a bit more than basic oil charting 101 in that it takes some technical analysis experience to learn, but not much and if you are an oil day trader it is a good skill to learn because the machine liquidity in the markets use mirrored fractals greatly.
You can see this technical charting skill helped garner a 200 point rally oil trade win today.
Crude Oil Trend line Chart, oil hit key support on the chart and this was one key signal for taking and alerting the trade.
Crude Oil Trend Line Chart, oil hit key support on the chart and this was one key signal for taking and alerting the trade #oiltradealerts
And then later in the day came the trend Line resistance break out.
I marked the intra day oil trend line resistance break out area on the chart below with a second red circle.
I marked the intra day oil trend line resistance break out area on the chart below with a second red circle.
I recently did a video instructional on oil trend line resistance break outs that explains the rules and tips for how to trade intraday break outs above a trend line resistance. It was identical to today’s set up and signals that produced this excellent win.
Here is an excerpt from that article:
Three Possible Trade Scenarios When Price Breaks Out;
1. The break out fails. This is possible so be sure to use stops or reverse your trade if the break out of resistance fails.
2. The break out succeeds and price keeps running without a retest of previous resistance (now support). If price does not come back to test support of the trend line then you have to be prepared to take the trade long and go with price action.
3. And finally, price breaks out of resistance and then comes back to retest the new support (which was previously the resistance of the trendline structure).
You can find Part 1 to the article with video tutorial here:
and
Part 2 for our premium members is here:
Trend line break outs, especially on larger time frame charting such as the one hour like with today’s trading are very powerful signals.
I even publicly gave my Twitter followers a bit of a heads up intra-day because I could see the trend line breach set up coming. My tweet went out at 11:30 AM and shortly after noon oil was in break out mode above the trend line resistance.
oil shorties could get wrecked here
oil shorties could get wrecked here
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 9, 2020
In Part 2 of this article we will take a look at how the swing trading strategies played in to this set up for our Swing Trade Alert service members.
In Part 3 for our Pro Oil Day Traders (Oil Trade Subscribers) we will look at the algorithmic charting structures that enabled this successful trade.
The video tutorial for this specific article (Part 1) is below.
As always, any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
< Updated June 10 7:41 AM EST >
There is another classical charting reason possible for crude oil’s 200 Point reversal rally intra-day, Fibonacci level 50% was hit perfectly.
Nonetheless, there were strong algorithmic charting reasons for the reversal rally intra-day that I will go in to in more detail for our oil trader members in Part 3. Considering the machine trading liquidity in the oil trading markets I would weigh those indicators / signals much more greatly than the chart below.
There is another classical charting reason possible for crude oil’s 200 Point reversal rally intra-day, Fibonnaci level 50% was hit perfectly.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
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Article Topics; Oil, Trading, Alerts, Oil Trading Room, Strategies, Day Trading, Intra Day, Trend Lines, Break – Outs, Support, Time of Day
Market Update: Premarket Trading
Morning traders,
Monday was quiet for us, most of the portfolio rising, some trimming of profits of course, best swing run in our history.
The Boeing $BA trade below is an example of the time cycle we’ve had on the swing trading platform:
What a great trade, more than a double in Boeing $BA from 107s to 231s, holding some profit runner 🎯🏹🔥
#swingtrading
What a great trade, more than a double in Boeing $BA from 107s to 231s, holding some profit runner 🎯🏹🔥#swingtrading pic.twitter.com/mnsoSxstIY
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 8, 2020
Still have many profit runners and new positions start over the next 7 or 8 trading days for the cycle in to end of August – watch the swing trade alerts feed for new positions as we come out of this time cycle inflection.
$AAPL $INTC – Apple announcing Mac chips at WWDC – Bloomberg https://seekingalpha.com/news/3581457-apple-announcing-mac-chips-wwdc-bloomberg?source=tweet #swingtrading
$AAPL $INTC – Apple announcing Mac chips at WWDC – Bloomberg https://t.co/RA5Kzcr8zy #swingtrading
— Swing Trading (@swingtrading_ct) June 9, 2020
Today is soft so far, except some highly speculative day trader stocks $IDEX $IZEA $EYES $AQMS etc wow. Watching close.
Going to short TESLA $TSLA to the moon and back when the time is right
“I would like to be able to get more money to buy more
@Tesla
actually,” says legendary investor Ron Baron. $TSLA
"I would like to be able to get more money to buy more @Tesla actually," says legendary investor Ron Baron. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/sCt9dr4mDu
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) June 9, 2020
We’re in live trading room, EPIC oil trading software active so the live oil trading alerts are also, likely some day trades firing in to open and swing trading reporting coming today with a number of set-ups, time cycle inflection last week this week so we’ll see how that goes.
Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE
Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE pic.twitter.com/CLLa0TseqW
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 9, 2020
Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE
Oil down on stronger dollar, oversupply concerns https://reut.rs/2Ygx7DV #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL Thread https://twitter.com/davidgaffen/status/1270322515047481346
Some on schedule:
FOMC
FOMC decision: What to know in the week ahead
8:55
Redbook
10:00
Wholesale Trade
JOLTS
4:30
API Crude Oil Data with EIA 10:30 Wed
LIVE: President
@realDonaldTrump
holds a news conference
LIVE: President @realDonaldTrump holds a news conference https://t.co/qfXa9nMlTD
— The White House 45 Archived (@WhiteHouse45) June 5, 2020
Thanks
Curt
Algorithmic Trading Strategies for Crude Oil (CL) Day Trading, Trend and Swing Trading. Intra-Day, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Time-Frames.
This is a supplemental document for CL trade strategies for and as included in our algorithmic client oil reporting.
The various reporting included for our clients includes and is not limited to; live oil trade alerts (on Twitter, Discord, email and live in our Trading Room), conventional charting, algorithmic chart models, various trade signals, price targets, symmetry, time cycles and various other guidance.
We endeavor to assimilate the vast algorithmic data our computer scientists derive for our oil traders to action for a trader’s edge.
The algorithmic material is suitable for actionable mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding team reference for our crude oil machine learning trade development.
You will find in the array of documentation and reporting we provide a well developed, time-tested proven rules based system for crude oil trading that is one of the best available. Oil traders should use all the models together as a structured system of trade for it to work to your best advantage.
With each chart model (in various reporting) we may include “best-use” trade strategy notes and/or “rules-based trade indications” for your consideration. The oil trading room and study of the Discord oil chat room is your best resource for real-time learning.
For perspective, review historical reporting on our blog and the various videos we have published to the Compound Trading YouTube channel.
Much of the structured model discipline developed in our system is similar in concept as discussed in this video; Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street.
Our “How to Trade Crude Oil” Recommendations.
Crude oil price moves within structured areas (ranges) of trade represented on charting on various time frames (different time cycles of trade) often in symmetrical price extensions or mirrored fractals, historical price support and resistance, channels and simple price ranges.
The structure oil price moves within (the range of price) can be one minute charting (and more recently some machine trade is as low as 15 second time-frame) timing through to monthly charting.
Time-frame set-ups / strategies included in reporting are charted as conventional chart set-ups and/ or algorithmic chart set-ups (structures).
Understanding and having each chart time-frame at your immediate access (both conventional and algorithmic) will increase the probability of profitable trading.
You will find in reviewing the raw recorded video feed or in attending the live oil trading room that in the morning a lead trader will often review on mic the various levels of support and resistance on various oil trade time-frames on the charting to establish the most probable areas of trade for the strategy of trade.
The lead trader will also check with all the chart time-frames prior to entering a day trade at various times through the day.
When multiple time-frames agree to support or resistance (especially symmetrical) areas on the charting (with trend) this becomes your highest probability area of trade execution, we have found this to be one of the best oil trading strategies.
Sizing trades appropriate to your trading account, probability of support or resistance (multiple oil chart time-frames in agreement) and time frame for each set-up is a positive strategy.
Using the correct chart time-frame specific to your trading strategy is critical. Generally, the lower (smaller) the time frame the less predictable the support and resistance areas (or structure) of the chart will be. However, the larger time-frames (monthly, weekly, daily) may also have significant “slippage” but the primary structure will often remain intact.
Generally, the idea is to enter your positions based on the structure for the specific time frame you are wanting to trade referencing the other time frame support and resistance or range within the trend. The basic method is to understand the range of trade and execute trade long bias when price is near support for the appropriate time frame / structure and the opposite is true for short trades.
Our staff use the thirty minute model structures (range within trends) most often for primary areas of support and resistance trading signals referencing all other time-frames in their trading strategy. More recently the 60 minute and 120 minute time-frames are being used by our staff as it provides a wider view of the current structure of oil trade (post COVID black swan machine code updates).
Trade positions should be significantly biased to the trending range of trade.
Below are recent videos from webinars we recorded in our Oil Trading Room:
“How to Profit With EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trades.”
“How to Use Our Oil Trading Services. Oil Trade Alerts, Oil Trading Room, Oil Reports, Trade Coaching”.
The recently released white paper(s) about EPIC v3 explains also its method of execution of trades and is a great supplemental piece of documentation for live human traders to reference for trading bias, see the report here;
EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update Details | White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
White Paper: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading Methods
If you have questions about the models below please email us at [email protected] and if you are a client you can send your Whatsapp phone number to that email and connect direct to our lead trader for intra-day question(s).
Not all charts are updated every week and some concept or test charts are added or deleted on occasion.
Be sure to check the time-stamp of each chart in reporting as the preparation of charts and/or models can take days prior to publication and distribution of this report.
If you are a new client that would like to review historical reports that are still locked on the blog from public view please email the office with your request and we will send you recent report credentials for unlocking reports for review.
Please note, chart links that support the models and unlisted videos from live trade, for reporting set-ups and webinars are now distributed specific to each user or small group of users. If you are using more than one device to access these, to avoid disruption of service, please email us a simple / general description of those devices to assist in controlling dissemination.
EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model. 30 Minute Oil Chart Structure (see historical client reporting for the model).
The EPIC algorithm model chart is a proprietary structure that has been back tested sixty months on thirteen time-frames. The model represents the most probable areas of support and resistance in oil trade within this specific time-frame. During a black swan event adjust your trade bias to a larger 60 minute or 120 minute algorithmic model time-frame.
This (the EPIC 30 Minute Oil Algorithm Chart Model) is our most proven oil trading structure / strategy.
The levels noted on the EPIC model are to be used as important areas of consideration for support and resistance (trade signals) for your trading strategy when using conventional charting set-ups / structures and/or other algorithmic charting.
Resistance and support areas on the thirty minute oil trade structure chart are at each line on the algorithmic chart. The primary areas of support and resistance are;
- Outer quadrant walls / also used as channel support and resistance (orange dotted diagonal lines), the half way point between each is often an executable buy or sell trigger in trade,
- Mid channel line for uptrend and down trend (white dotted diagonal),
- Mid quad horizontal (not marked but is at the mid point of the quad),
- Fibonacci levels (various horizontal colored lines on model),
- Historical areas of support and resistance (purple horizontal lines on model).
- The intra-week swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next (commonly becomes a pivot area of trade). You will find on the larger time frame models of the one hour, two hour and four hour that these key horizontal swing range support and resistance levels are marked as green and gray alternating.
- The important historical diagonal trend-lines (conventional trend lines) are represented on the chart as thick white lines.
- Also of note are the price targets for Tuesday 4:30 PM (API), Wednesday 10:30 AM (EIA) and Friday 1:00 PM (Rig Count). The Tuesday and Wednesday targets hit significantly more often than the Friday target (red circles with red or green vertical dotted lines intersecting).
- At times other indicators are added to the chart such as important trend lines “in play”, moving averages and more.
The video at this link explains How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, #OIL, #Trading, #Algorithm, #OOTT as does this video Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart June 21 #OIL #OOTT and this Webinar 1: EPIC the Oil Algorithm.
When conventional crude oil charting coincides (or agrees) with the EPIC algorithmic model support and resistance this is then considered a significant buy or sell trigger (signal) for crude oil trade.
Be aware (at minimum) of the primary support and resistance areas on the larger time-frames (lower time frames are not as critical) – in this instance (when trading the 30 min time frame) the 1 hour, 2 hour, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charting should be considered when sizing your trades.
Also, more recently we have been adding models for the one hour and two hour time-frames (post COVID black swan event), please be sure to review these models as they are sent out.
This document is sent out to clients for the purpose of “supplemental” to the regular reporting to keep the regular reporting as short as possible. Also, ultimately it is the intra-day or intra-week information provided to our clients that also becomes key for trade bias.
I will also update this document extensively in the near future with a number of live trade video clips to show examples of intra-day trade, swing trade and position trading strategies we are using (for study guide purposes).
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; Crude Oil, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Algorithm, Algorithmic, Trading, Trend, Position, Intra Day, Machine Trading, Supplement Article
Swing Trading Crude Oil – Next Leg of the Rally Has Started. A Review of Our Strategy.
Since crude oil traded to negative prices, we have been writing a series of articles for our subscribers (some are unlocked for the public) – they are below. This is a continuation of the article series for the current price rally.
Trading crude oil is difficult enough, the technical analysis we will review here (including price resistance, support, retracement levels, time cycles, symmetry) and various other topics such as; Surprise Jobs Numbers, Fed stimulus, Corona Virus, OPEC and more.
The technical analysis for the legs of the rally have been spot on (as of time of writing the public can refer to the first 3 unlocked articles below on Apr 29, Apr 30 and May 2 – eventually they will be all unlocked), the trick is trading it.
- May 29 – Protected: How to Trade Crude Oil – Recent Rally, Time Cycle, My Current Oil Swing Trade (Premium) $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- May 20 – Protected: How to Trade Current Price Decisions in Crude Oil (Premium) $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- May 19 – Protected: Oil Trading Newsletter (Premium): Charting, Alerts, Price Targets, Trading Strategies, Time Cycles. $CL_F $USO $USOIL
- May 15 – Protected: What’s Next? Crude Oil Trading Strategy – Trading Trend Line Resistance Break-Outs (PREMIUM) #CrudeOil #OOTT $CL_F $USO
- May 4 – Protected: The Symmetry and Time Cycle Price Targets of Next Move in Oil Trade | Part 4 (Premium) How We Daytrade Crude Oil.
- May 2 – BOOOM! Price and Time Exactly as Predicted Days in Advance | Part 3 – How We Daytrade Crude Oil #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO
- April 30 – “Excuse Me, While I Kiss The Sky”. Part 2 Insider’s Look at How We Daytrade Crude Oil (w/ real-time alert screen shots from oil trading room).
- April 29 – What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak.
In the most recent article on May 29 I was clear that I was starting to short the rally in advance of the key resistance in the 38.57 area on FX USOIL WTI and that doing so was not an easy trade and that if the rally continued in to the next leg that I would reverse the trade – this happened Friday morning.
From May 29:
The big challenge with this oil trade strategy is that I am trading against the wider trend, the trend is up and I am trying to position ahead of the turn down in oil, this is not a simple strategy to execute.
In the oil trading room and on the oil trade alerts feed Thursday / Friday I also had said that I was going to trade the rest of the decisions along with EPIC because I could see the decision coming.
Commentary from Oil Trading Chat Room and Oil Trade Alerts (there is also a live trading room with voice alerts and charting separate of this).
As the price of oil was nearing the key resistance area of the charting in this leg of trade EPIC software (as was I) was shorting the resistance. I was noting that a reversal trade was likely imminent.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 8:16 AM
EPIC is shorting 38.56 and will likely reverse above, booting up trading room.
And then when price breached the resistance area we reversed our short trade 3/30 size to 12/30 size long for the next leg of trade. Oil rallied on the day from there more than 100 points.
Reversal trades are tough, this morning I (and various EPIC V3 programs) reversed at 38.50-.70 an oil short 3/30 size for 12/30 size longs for a rocket ride🚀 Hit 39.65 on FX USOIL WTI trading 39.44. Wild day. We'll see what next brings.#OOTT $CL_F $USO #swingtrading #crudeoil pic.twitter.com/L9VpJkyQAG
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 5, 2020
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 8:40 AM
On the oil swing EPIC did reverse 12 contracts from 3 short released 4 so far trading 39.19, we’re in live room. Will release P&L as we go here so you can see what it is doing. 38.56 is the mark for sure for reversals.
Oil Trading Room Chat Screen Capture.
Oil trading room chat room commentary on the reversal from short oil to long oil at decision #oiltradingroom
EPIC V3.1.1 reversal in crude oil trade today from short to long position at key pivot for next leg up in rally. #oiltradingalerts
Strategy, Time Cycles, The Fed, The Virus.
The image below provides an idea of what our oil trading alerts feed looks like as trade progresses.
The strategy for swing trading the oil price rally was long until key resistance areas are near as with what occurred on Friday. The other important part of this current area of the rally is that there was a mid time cycle for volatility occurring around the week of June 3 so we were being extra cautious with our long bias.
The mid time cycle would be an opportune time for oil to reverse in the rally, however, the Fed has once again brought in stimulus, continues to signal all kinds of magic money and signals the possibility of more, the world is re-opening after the initial COVID scare, a surprise jobs number was posted Friday and Trump is talking up virus vaccines ready which is almost guaranteed to have the rally continue.
This will all be on close watch however this week because quite often Fed stimulus, magic money talk, news flow in general is timed perfectly within market cycles (they are not stupid) and this can unwind fast, so we will be vigilant being long in this current leg of the rally – to say the least.
Oil trading alert feed screen image of alerts and various lead trader technical analysis for the swing trade in oil.
So What is the Plan for the Next Part of the Trading Strategy?
Some of the questions an oil trader needs to consider in planning for the week coming;:
- Where is key resistance and support?
- How to size at key resistance and support?
- When to reverse the trade if it support is broken or resistance is breached?
- When to add to the trade or trim the trade?
- Key areas to trim size within each structure or range – position trading.
Lets Start With The Primary Simple Structure of the Oil Chart Trend Lines (for Part 1 public facing article).
Then in Part 2 for our Swing Trading and Oil Trade Subscribers we will go in to Swing Trading the Time Cycle Charts and Models (helps swing trade and position key areas of support and resistance, time and symmetry decisions which is key for sizing adds and trimming positions).
Then in Part 3 for our Pro Oil Day Traders (Oil Trade Subscribers) we will review the various EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Models for Day Trading and Swing Trading decisions on a variety of time frames.
Part 1 – Simple Oil Charts for Swing Trade Strategies
The oil chart below is from 11:14:37 AM Thursday, crude oil was just holding on to the support of both the trading box of the “gap” on the one hour chart and the lower uptrending support.
This is riveting to watch. Basic oil trend lines to watch.
And then Friday morning the surprise jobs number came out and oil rallied again to the top of the resistance on the simple trend line crude oil swing trading chart.
Shown below is the Simple Crude Oil Chart for the Gap and Trend lines.
Simple Crude Oil Chart for the Gap and Trend lines #crudeoilcharting
So what is the Plan for a Simple Swing Trading Strategy for Crude Oil here?
You should be long at the key support areas of the chart, the horizontal trend lines that make up the “gaps” historically on the 60 minute chart and more importantly at the up trending trend lines which oil traders are obviously using to size their trades.
At end of week trade on Friday oil price was left at the resistance area of the upper trend line with another possible upper uptrend trend line and trading box “gap” resistance above.
If oil fails to hold support or breaches the resistance areas of this chart you will need a plan – this we will cover in Part 2 and Part 3 of this article.
Below are some simple tips;
If oil breaches resistance look to the next resistance in your strategy and be sure that you are aware of how break-outs work paying close attention to previous resistance now support levels.
If oil fails support be sure you don’t get chopped up by death of a thousand cuts around the key support (in and out of trade taking small losses that add up) and you will need a plan for this also.
Knowing the order flow of intra day trade helps a lot (along with various other more technical indications which increase probability that you are on the right side of a move) which is why we have the oil machine trading software side of our business that our oil trading room and alert clients are alerted to. You can find the most recent EPIC white paper here: EPIC V3.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update | June 4, 2020 White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL.
In Part Two, “Protected: Part 2 of 3 – Swing Trading Crude Oil: Key Chart Considerations (Time Cycles, Symmetry, Support and Resistance Levels for Sizing)” we will look at more charting and strategies for our Swing Trading and Oil Trade Subscribers including time cycles, other chart time-frames, symmetry, support and resistance, sizing and more.
In Part Three, “Protected: Part 3 – Algorithmic Crude Oil Trading Strategies (Day Trading, Swing Trading, Position Trading, Time Frames, Models)” for our Pro Oil Day Traders (Oil Trade Subscribers) we will review the various EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Models for Day Trading and Swing Trading decisions on a variety of time frames.
As always, any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].
Thank you.
Curt
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.
Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:
Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).
Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).
Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).
Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).
Article Topics; How to, Swing Trade, Crude Oil, Oil Trading Strategy