In One Hour of Crude Oil Trade Wednesday Afternoon (After EIA Reported Inventories) Price Ran Up 134 Ticks, And We Knew The Bottom.

A Simple Crude Oil Intraday Trading Strategy.

Below Are Tips for Intra-Day Reversal Trading Strategies and How To Determine Price Targets For Locating Bottom of Day Price.

Nail the bottoms in crude oil and you have the single most profitable strategy there is in trading crude oil. The intra-day reversals and subsequent run up in price move fast. Intra-day reversals can be precisely executed with an extremely high win rate (our v3 EPIC win rate is well over 90%) and you can build a profitable trading career with that one set-up.

The reversal trade in crude oil trade in this report and video is a real-world example from our oil trading room.

The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence from yesterday’s article concludes here also (see below).

We pick up the story in this article with us closing the winning oil short position / sequence from the Tuesday (selling in to the Trump news) and then on Wednesday (after the weekly EIA report) turning our focus toward pin-pointing likely oil trade reversal areas intra-day to possibly catch a bullish run-up trend intra-day after the sell-off.

The strategy worked. We caught the bottom near to the penny and we had the price target for the high of day within pennies also. Execution wasn’t perfect, but we are winning consistently and the v3 software is performing over expectation.

Exactly how we determined the most likely bottom area on the day and high of day price target is in the raw video feed from the live trading room (see below) and in this quick post.

With the limited time I have available to write this article in premarket, I will provide some of the tips you can use to locate bottoms for your daytrading strategies. For more on this subject, refer to the live trading room videos on YouTube and/or other articles we have published on this topic.

If there is one area of crude oil trade we know well, it is how to locate intra-day bottoms (low price of day) in advance to assist with a traders day trade strategy. The v3 EPIC Machine Trade Software has an extremely high success rate in this specific area of oil trade analysis.

Before digging in to this article, please read the introductory article for this series here: How Oil Day Traders Can Learn to Trade Better Using Success & Failure of Our Trading Development Team – Part 1.

The articles in this series are sent direct to the mailing list – so be sure to register now,  click here.

Recent Trading Profit/Loss Results v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software Sample 100K Account:

For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts

Wednesday’s Live Oil Trading Room Session.

Please note:

  • When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
  • Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.

First I will share the guidance from the oil trading room server, alert feeds etc and then I’ll give you some pointers on how to locate bottoms in trade.

The raw video from the oil trading room provides significantly more detailed guidance.

Chart from oil trading room below highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.

short sell, crude oil, trading room

Chart from oil trading room highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.

Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.

JeremyToday at 6:11 AM
Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell
Software well green.

oil trade alert

Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.

The New Trading Day Starts: Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.

Green arrows on chart are oil contract buys and red arrows sells, white are price targets for low and high alerted prior to trade.

oil trading room, alerts, trades, alerts

Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.

Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intra-day

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:33 AM
Software started buying 54.32’s HF tests
It sold in to the 2/10 in to 54.50s, its in a range program now

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:56 AM

At this point we’re looking for a 12:45 bottom, time cycle 11:15 – 2:15, trading 54.14
machines are here fyi
Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. Trading 54.29. Quoted as FX USOIL WTI
Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93

oil trade room, alerts, trades

Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intraday

Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:09 PM
Long 54.13 1/10 tight stops

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:19 PM
Long 2/10 add 53.96, sell 1/10 54.01, hold 2
Sold in to 54.25 hold 0

Gotta teach it to hold some.

machine trading, crude, oil, alerts

Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.

Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.

two ticks away hit 53.95 – “Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93”
2 ticks off price target in that first burst

“Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. “

price targets, alert, oil, trading room

Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.

Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:50 PM
possible channel

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:25 PM
right in to top of channel beauty

trading room, oil, guidance

Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.

Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.

Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:36 PM
Hit 55.30 dangerously close now to 2nd price target, nice move today on that snap back reversal trade intraday

I will be on break until 6:00 PM, Jeremy will alert any trades, a tad overloaded with paperwork. Have a good one y’all.

crude oil, price target, alerts, trading room

Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.

So, The Question Then Is, How Did We Nail The Bottom Price On The Day? And How Is It That We Nail That Trade Day After Day With Well Over 90% Win Rate? Below Are My Tips:

What I Can’t Tell You (Top Secret):

  1. We are developing proprietary crude oil order flow AI software platform that is getting really accurate (IDENT). This software runs tandem to the EPIC Oil Trade Machine software that executes the trades. Sovoron then uses that data. Our trading service members and clients of SOVORON receive the benefit but I can’t tell you how it works, ever.
  2. We have been developing algorithmic chart models for crude oil trade on all time-frames for nearly three years now, this helps a lot in determining areas (range) of oil trade and turn-around (reversal, nap-back) trades. The oil algorithmic chart models are available to our trade service members in reports that are regularly distributed.
  3. We have taken the algorithmic chart models and coded them to machine trade software. The software then alerts myself (and team), our oil trading room traders, our trading service members and Sovoron to trades setting up and trade executions. I can’t tell you exactly how the software is coded beyond that, but I can say that it has over 4700 rules. The v3 software is executing a win rate well over 90%. You can learn how to trade on the information it uses by signing on to our newsletters, alerts and/or attend the live trading room.

What I Can Tell You:

Below are just a few tips I can provide with the limited time I have, but I can say that if you study our methods you can duplicate our win rate. We’re still learning and we’re teaching our trading service members and the recently launched AI software to trade oil (the software will obviously be much better than us soon enough), but I think you get the point. There is a process here, you just have to put in the work and learn.

  1. Conventional Crude Oil Charts are critical for your trading strategy. Our software uses them, I (our team) use them and you should be using them daily. All time frames are important so that you know the key areas of support and resistance for your day trading plan. Trend-lines on all times frames should be at your immediate access when trading oil.
  2. Algorithmic Crude Oil Chart Models refine  and compliment conventional charting. They help you see what you wouldn’t otherwise be able to see. They also help you know better what the large machine liquidity in the oil markets are likely to do with each support and resistance area. Algorithmic models also provide you with a future forward GPS. For example, you will know where possible channels are before they appear from trade. In summary, algorithmic chart models provide you with the lay of the land – the structure of trade on various time-frames. It is this structure that wide market machine liquidity is programmed to compete within.
  3. When Sizing Your Intra-day Reversal Trade be sure you can release some size almost immediately so that if the trade then goes against you (after the initial spike) then you have some “room” for your stops. In other words, if price spikes 10 ticks after you enter a 3 contract trade then close 1 contract and then if price returns to your buy then decide if you want to release another and then if it goes 10 ticks under your buy release the last. In that scenario you have lost zero. So if you get good at this trade set up then you have a near zero risk trading edge IF YOU DON’T HOLD LOSERS. Where we are working with our software right now is with it holding some as price reversal continues. We have mastered the bottom reversals and now we’re training the software to hold some size and ride some profit. It’s complicated to explain but I’m sure you get the point.
  4. Technically watch for increasing volume at possible lows. Know your support and resistance on every time frame, your trend lines are key as are algorithmic chart model structures. Get to know your important times of day, times of week, time-cycles, events etc. Also, if you can enter after a flash down (a quick spike down in to your intended support) this is best. This allows for some range on the snap-back reversal and if the trade fails you can exit.
  5. And finally, DO NOT HOLD BAGS. Losing trades can be tough to recover. Our v3 software may hold some (very small) but only because it can locate the next bottom and hit it long and have a small loser right side up very quickly. If intra-day trade leaves the intra-day structure our v3 software will close the small position for a loss. This by the way is its edge and the primary reason the v3 EPIC Oil Trading Machine Software very rarely loses a trade.

Bottom Line:

  1. We obviously know how to locate intra-day bottoms in oil price and most often also tops (although top price of day targets are more difficult as is trading oil short from the top – bottom reversals are much easier to trade). The everyday oil trader can learn our methods and find a high win rate with an excellent ROI. Reviewing our videos on YouTube, reviewing our written blog posts and signing on with us will go a long way to you learning this trading edge. This becomes a really easy trading strategy when you have done your study, have the right indicators in front of you when trading, receive some experienced guidance when needed and have our alerts / guidance.
  2. As our software better learns how to hold profits and trail out of the intra-day reversal trades the win rate will remain the same but the ROI of the software graph will likely go parabolic from about 90% per annum (see chart) to a vertical ROI graph – we aren’t far away from this now.
  3. The majority (we estimate now to be close to 90%) of order flow in the oil markets is now machine traded, if you aren’t at least learning how they trade then you’re just not awake to the profitable world it offers.Between 2012 and 2016, almost two-thirds of crude oil contracts traded on CME’s futures exchange were automated, up from 54 per cent, according to a 2017 study by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. https://www.ft.com/content/8cc7f5d4-59ca-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0
  4. Dig in to the links below at the bottom of this article if you want to investigate how our development process can help you profit in the oil trading markets.

Live Oil Trading Room Video.

Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.

On Wednesday I was fairly active on mic around trading times with trade set ups and execution of trades.

If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Further Learning:

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Company News:

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Follow:

Article Topics; crude oil, tips, reversals, bottoms, trading, strategies, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, how to trade, alerts, trading room, simple, intraday, strategy


Selling Against An Intra-Day Bullish Break-out In Crude Oil Is Difficult. Here’s How We Day Short-Sold The Trump – China Break-Out News Yesterday.

The trade sequence in this report is a real-world example from our oil trading room. The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence as of the time of writing this report is not complete so there will be a Part 2 to this post.

Tuesday was a bullish break-out day for crude oil markets. Trump messaged to the world that some tariffs would be delayed and this sent oil soaring in price intra-day.

Oil prices continued to rally on Tuesday, this time on reports that the United States has decided to delay the next round of tariffs that were to be imposed on Chinese goods.

The delay gives hope to a skittish market that the trade war really won’t go on forever.

For WTI, oil prices had climbed 4.30% by 12:36pm EDT to trade at $57.29. Brent Crude was trading up even more at 4.70%, at $61.32—resuming its over $60 per barrel that it had fallen under during the first week of August as the trade war stoked fears of souring oil demand growth.

In addition to the tariff delay, which will now go into force on December 15, the United States will also be taking some of the items on that tariff list off completely, according to its newest policy document published on the Office of the United States Trade Representative website. While the list hasn’t been made public, it will include items that will be removed “based on health, safety, national security, and other factors”.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Spikes-As-US-Delays-Tariffs-On-Chinese-Goods.html

When the intra-day price in the bullish break-out (on Trump news) was over-extended technically on charts and trade was starting to get in to overhead supply (order-flow), we began a short selling sequence.

Below is the first part of this article because (as I mentioned above) the short selling sequence is still in play and includes a significant number of trade executions.

So for today’s article I will include a chart that shows / maps out each trade execution as I and the v3 EPIC machine trading software executed the trades, the raw footage from the oil trading room and some miscellaneous charting. Then in Part 2 of this article (when the trade sequence is complete) I will explain each trade execution in detail so that it may help you with your crude oil day trading strategies.

Before digging in to this article, please read the introductory article for this series here: How Oil Day Traders Can Learn to Trade Better Using Success & Failure of Our Trading Development Team – Part 1.

The articles in this series are sent direct to the mailing list – so be sure to register now,  click here.

Also, The Most Recent Oil Trade Profit Loss Results For v3 Machine Trading (trade alerts) Sample Set;

For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts

Tuesday’s Live Oil Trading Room Session.

Please note:

  • When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
  • Trades are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.

As mentioned above, Tuesday’s daytrading session in crude oil futures was a short selling strategy in to a spike in price that was over extended technically.

Below is a chart that shows / maps each location of trade (red are the short selling trades and green are the buy or cover trades, each arrow is 1/10 size). Part 2 of this article will be published tomorrow when this sequence is complete.

At time of writing we are green (positive, profitable) in the trade sequence and it will be interesting to see how it completes.

The short selling sequence below is a protocol within the v3 EPIC Crude Oil Machine Trading Software code.

First a few screen capture images from the private oil chat server and associated alerts and charts and then the main chart showing location of each trade is below that.

Below is an image screen shot from the private member oil trading server of the first trade alerts on the day.

Oil trading room, alerts, daytrades

Oil day trades started here for the day – screen capture from the oil trading room chat server. First oil trade alerts on day.

And an image of the chat oil room server showing charts of alerted trades etc.

oil trading room, alerts, charts

Oil trading room chat server showing charting guidance and alerting where each trade execution is located on chart.

short selling, crude oil, alerts, trading room

The next set of oil trade alerts and charting to show where each short sell trade is and covering of trades as sequence progresses.

oil trading room, alerts, guidance

More guidance and charting showing oil trade alert locations on charting and the daytrade session is completing.

oil, trading, futures, trade room, alerts

As the evening futures session starts more short selling of oil in this time frame starts, alerts on screen.

Below is a one minute chart from oil trading room that shows all the crude oil futures buy and selling of contracts in the short bias sequence.

Red arrows are short selling and green arrows are buys / cover trades. My apologies for the noisy chart but this is my personal work chart I use for working with the developers for the machine trade side of our work.

The bottom right arrow (green) is the most recent cover buy from the oil trade alerts while I write this article in premarket.

cude, oil, trade, alerts, chart, trading room

Chart from oil trading room trade alerts that shows each buy and sell alert in crude oil in short selling sequence.

And below is a screen shot of most recent oil trade alert from Jeremy stating that the software covered the last of the short selling contracts but is still in a short bias sequence.

Also Jeremy notes that the machine trade software (and myself with manual trade execution) are now on profitable side of the trade sequence, which isn’t bad performance for the v3 software that is less than 6 weeks old and just ran its first larger short selling sequence in to over extended intra-day trading range on the Trump news. So I’m very satisfied because I would have assumed this would be a red or loss day on first go round in this specific new sequence.

Each time the software encounters a similar set-up it will execute for a better ROI, this is the power of machine trading.

The software (v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trade Software) has had 1 red day for 0.2% draw down since it was launched – it has been running for about 5 weeks. It has had a few trade sequences that it was in the red during the sequence (such as this) but has always come up profitable on the day it completes a sequence (with the one exception).

The key with the v3 vs v4 is that the v3 software only holds at most 1/10 size in to an intra-day range (it will hold more on a high frequency very short term basis) and v4 would hold easily 3/10 or more on a much wider range of trade – this allowed for significant volatility in profit and loss.

The smaller holds in to pressure with v3 allows for a projected loss day of 1 in 10 estimated to be equal to the average win day – excellent, balance risk-reward threshold, especially if it can do 80% or more annual returns (which appears to be the case). The smaller holds also allows for v3 to maneuver easier when off-side intra-day because it always has ample “dry powder” to work with.

JeremyToday at 6:11 AM
Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell
Software well green.
If the software ends the sequence and/or flips to a buy sequence will advise, but at this point it is still short sequence.

oil trade alert, daytrading

Oil trade alert to cover short while I am writing this article about the day trade sequence.

I will explain each trade execution you see in the chart above in a future post when this trade sequence is complete, which I expect will occur today prior to the EIA report at 10:30.

Live Oil Trading Room Video.

Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole daytrading session. To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his thinking as he and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time of the oil trade alert and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.

On Tuesday, in the video below, I wasn’t providing real in depth trade guidance verbally to the room like I normally attempt to do, I was alerting the trades however. I was busy with our developers because this set-up was new to the v3 machine trade code (each new set-up in oil trade requires “teaching” of the software).

 

If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Further Learning:

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Company News:

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Follow:

Article Topics; crude oil, short selling, trading, strategies, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, how to trade, alerts, trading room


Trading Intra-Day Range Can Be A Profitable Day Trading Strategy For Oil Traders.

Below is a real world example from our oil trading room last Thursday that highlights trade of the important intra-day trading range (in this instance the range of trade is a technical trading box structure).

Today (Monday) there were no trades in the trading room so I am going back a few market days and using it for our example.

Before digging in to this article, please read the introductory article for this series here: How Oil Day Traders Can Learn to Trade Better Using Success & Failure of Our Trading Development Team – Part 1.

The articles in this series are sent direct to the mailing list – so be sure to register now,  click here.

The most recent oil trade profit loss for v3 sample set is here;

For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts

Overview of Thursday’s Oil Trading Session.

The image below (a screen capture) from the oil trading room shows oil trading within a chart trade box – a range of trade (see yellow box on chart) on the day.

This post is intended to bring to the forefront of the oil traders mind a clear image example of an intra-day trading range structure and how to day trade that range.

Learning how to trade the intra-day range of crude oil is a vital area of study for anyone that wants to be consistently profitable in this game.

The biggest challenge is identifying the range and then once identified execution of your trades becomes easier. Identifying a range is not easy before trade has happened or even during trade – it is much easier to identify after the fact (after trade has clearly drawn in the lines on the chart so to speak).

In short, we traded successfully on Thursday but it was a bit choppy. Both I with manual executed trades and the machine trading software were green on the day.

crude oil, chart, trading room, range

Crude Oil Chart Showing Trading Box Intra Day Range of Trade – Screen Image from Oil Trading Room

Lead Trader Guidance in Private Member Server, Oil Trading Broadcast Room and to Alert Feeds.

In Regular US Market Premarket I Provided Range Trade Guidance to our Oil Trading Chat Room Attendees (a private member Discord server for sharing charts etc), to the Live Oil Trading Broadcast Room (this is where I trade live and broadcast trades over a mic) and to the Private Member Twitter Oil Alert Feed with a Daily Chart.

The buy triggers on watch I am sharing with the day traders are on various chart model time frames, the 1 minute, 5 minute, 30 minute, and Daily charts.

This article is not specifically about various support buy triggers on different chart model time-frames as described in this guidance, however, it is part of the intra day set up in crude oil trade and vital to the architecture of our v3 software and ROI (and vital to the daytrader) so I include these details in this article.

For those really wanting to dig in to how we find support areas on the charting simply look at the time stamp on the chart image captures in any of these articles and correlate that time with the raw oil trading room video feed included in these articles and listen to what the lead trader (in this instance myself) is saying about the set up.

There were specific trend lines on the daily chart that crude oil was respecting, that we had communicated to our members about prior that was my primary watch going in to the regular US market day.

Curt MelonopolyLast Thursday at 9:08 AM
Today’s range per daily chart on recent report (TL’s), upside 53.86, downside 50.40, trading 52.44, pivot in 52.11 range. Yesterday’s 52.11 PT easily hit (from trading room)

oil trading room, lead trader, guidance

In Regular US Market Premarket I Provided Range Trade Guidance to our Oil Trading Chat Room with a Daily Chart

As trade progresses I am starting to share preferred buy triggers to the oil trading room and on alert feeds.

The image below from our oil trade chat room highlights buy triggers on the 5 minute algorithmic chart model.

Details of this set up and how we determine the areas of support for possible triggers are discussed on the raw video feed from the oil trading room below. We previously covered this in some detail in other articles available here “Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil” and will cover intra-day support areas for buy triggers in greater detail in future posts.

preferred buy triggers, oil, trade, alerts

As trade progresses I am starting to share preferred buy triggers to the oil trading room and on alert feeds.

I Also Outline in Detail to Oil Trading Room Attendees Support Buy Triggers on Watch on the 1 Minute Oil Daytrading Chart Time-Frame.

crude oil, one minute, daytrading, chart

I Also Outline in Detail to Oil Trading Room Attendees Support Buy Triggers on Watch on the 1 Minute Oil Daytrading Chart

Oil machine trade buy trigger on watch shared alerted to oil trading room for the daytraders information- screen image below. The image below is showing the EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Model.

machine trading, buy trigger, alert, oi trading room

Oil machine trade buy trigger on watch shared alerted to oil trading room for the daytraders information.

Oil Trade Example – Lessons Learned.

I will state that before I explain as best as possible below in writing and using screen shot images from the private member Discord chat server, oil trading room and oil alert feed that if you are serious about learning how we trade to a win rate higher than 90% that I highly recommend investing the time to match the time stamps you see on the images in these articles to the time of day on the raw oil trading room video and listen to the set up as explained over the mic.

I know that we are all busy, but this is the best way to really learn what we are doing and why our win rate is so high with the v3 oil daytrading software. Alternatively you could register for private coaching lessons as this would be more time efficient but more expensive also.

The challenge with these reports is that they are time intensive to reconcile, the screen shot images, the details, reviewing the videos and P&L’s, then explaining etc takes a lot of time so there is considerable information not included in these articles that you would otherwise garner if you had the time available to review the raw trading room footage – but I get it, it is a slow process and life is busy for most of us.

First trade of the day in oil trading room alerted was a short at 52.75 and we close soon thereafter at .72 for a time cycle decision. The time cycle decision we won’t get in to in this article (time cycles are advanced technical indicators we will cover at a later date). What is most specific to this article is why we shorted at 52.75. First see the alert below and then we’ll look at the chart range structure.

daytrade, oil trading room, crude oil, alert, short

First trade of the day in oil trading room alerted was a short at 52.75 and we close soon thereafter at .72 for a time cycle decision.

Screen capture image of live oil trading room, 30 minute oil chart trend line resistance for crude oil day trade alert short.

The image below from the oil trading room at 11:41 shows that intra-day oil was trading in to structural resistance trend line on the 30 minute EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Model. This is a significant sell signal. We closed shortly thereafter because there was an intraday time cycle decision coming on the 5 minute model (again, time cycles we will cover in a later article) and you can always re-enter a trade.

daytrading, oil trading room, alert, short

Screen capture image of live oil trading room, 30 minute oil chart trend line resistance for crude oil day trade alert short.

Image from oil chat room server showing discussion confirming that oil price did in fact trade down but buys were coming in.

So in short, at 12:24 (after the time cycle decision on the 5 minute chart) trade did respect the 30 minute larger chart structure resistance trend line and was in fact trading down intra-day. The chart image in the example below is the one minute chart.

So if trade was in fact selling off intra-day then why did we not re-enter short?

This is also explained below, the bulls were still buying at each support at this time in the day. Our software is programmed to trade and alert the most probable wins only. The v3 win rate is well over 90% for this reason. So often the trade set up will play out as expected but I myself and/or the software may not alert a trade because it isn’t a premium trade with a super high probability of a win.

In this instance, trade then started to really sell of on a short time frame and within a small structure. So the trade set-up worked, but we did not re-enter after the time cycle decision at 12:00.

But what we did do is then alert a new buy signal approaching on a time cycle decision…

oil chat room, alert

Image from oil chat room server showing discussion confirming that oil price did in fact trade down but buys were coming in.

Alerting our members in oil trading room and on alert feeds that a buy signal on timing is approaching and the initial buys shown.

You can see on the one minute daytrading chart model below the green arrows are the buys and the red selling locations from the alerted oil trade.

You will notice that we alerted our members 4 minutes in advance of the timing so they could be ready.

This alert typically goes to the private member Twitter feed, the Discord Private Server (shown below) and in to the Live Trading room (as time allows for each – this can be difficult at times so we do our best, obviously the live mic trading in the oil trading room is best but the alert feeds do receive about 80% or more of our trade set-ups alerted).

We then communicate on mic verbally in the oil trading room the complete set up as time allows. This may include various charting, order flow detail etc.

The trade size was 2/10 (so this means that with an account that is approximately 100k in size or would trade approximately 10 contracts at max this would be a 2 contract long daytrade in crude oil futures).

We alerted that we were 2 contracts in size long (assuming a 100k account size for simplicity) at 52.56 on FX USOIL WTI charting (we use this as a single source for various traders using various instruments).

We then sold 1 contract at 52.65 and held one contract long at this point (alert is shown in screen capture below).

oil, daytrade, alert, trading room

Alerting our members in oil trading room and on alert feeds that a buy signal on timing is approaching and the initial buys shown.

The screen capture image below is the actual Twitter Crude Oil Alert Feed that shows the daytrading alerts at this time of day.

Oil, daytrading, alerts

This screen capture image is the actual Twitter Crude Oil Alert Feed that shows the daytrading alerts at this time of day.

At this point, if you are following along and really in it here, you may wonder why we executed a trade long when the price of oil was relatively close to the resistance on the daily range?

The answer is simple, but more detailed than I can get in to here (here again review of raw trading room footage is key).

Nevertheless, basically the reasons were that trade intra-day was bullish and a break out was increasingly more probable, our order flow software had identified considerable progressive buy side accumulation (hence why we knew a break out was coming – see the previous post for more detail) and the trade itself was taken at a clear support area of our one minute day-trading chart model with progressive increasing buy side order flow.

See the screen capture below from our trading room that shows the support area on the one minute daytrading chart that triggered (in part) the long trade. You will also notice that we then alerted to the members that there was a sell signal time cycle decision approaching.

daytrading, alert, oil, trading room

Chart from oil trading room shows 1 minute daytrading chart support for the buy alert and then the upcoming sell decision

Next, as you will see below, the real day trading action started. Reviewing just the alerts (as seen below) is not the best way to study this, the best way is to listen to the video raw feed from the trading room. Again, I get it if you don’t have time.

During intraday trade we alert what we can but we often go in to great detail in the live trading room for the set ups as they are progressing.

In this specific instance what was happening was that there was an accumulation of bulls starting to buy to force a break out and volatility was starting. Most of our members understand where the resistance areas are so it is easier for them to see that a resistance is coming and would understand the alerts below (the reasoning) than a casual observer.

Anyway, what was happening is a possible run for a break out, but in that instance it is possible for the break out to fail a number of times before it may succeed, so what you see below is our oil trading machine software and myself (manually executing oil daytrades) trading with price action and order flow relative to resistance areas on the chart (also taking in to consideration time cycles etc).

In short, what occurred as shown below in the alerts is that we reversed the long trade short and then reversed again long and added to the long trade as the buy side order flow took over the short sellers in intra-day crude oil trade.

You will see notes from the oil trading room below that reference what time stamps one should refer to on the recorded trading room raw footage to study out how we did what we did. It was a successful day of trading and it was not a beginner trading environment. But what I can say is that our members have the advantage of simply executing along with us and / or our machine software trading it.

oil, trade, alerts, intraday, trading room

Oil trade alerts to members in trading room and alert feed of reversals and high frequency pivot decisions intraday

And here the daytrading session is coming near to a close and the oil trade alert goes out to liquidate the last of the long trade size in to resistance on one minute chart and range intraday – after all, if price breaches the resistance shown below on the two models (the one minute chart and 30 minute chart) then you can always re enter the trade right?

oil trade alert, sell, daytrading, 1 min chart

Oil trade alert to liquidate the last of the long trade size in to resistance on one minute chart and range intraday.

Some Important Final Thoughts.

  1. There are many, many more lessons to learn about how this was done than what is included in this article. Again, if you’re serious about study, defer to the live trading room raw feed video below.
  2. The v3 software was only rebooted a few days before this trading session…. think “re-birth”, it was in its early learning process and a week later would have executed this set up with far greater precision. But that is the nature of machine trade development. It did well, but it will do so much better within days – it doesn’t take long for the learning curve to inflect vertical.
  3. The whole trading range rule set on the day can be summarized in much simpler form by simply saying that once you have identified an intra-day range of trade you simply buy the bottoms and sell the tops. Release size at various resistance decisions and DO NOT HOLD LOSERS. The challenge of course is that it isn’t quite that easy – it is much easier to see an intraday structure on a chart after the fact than it is to see the range structure before or during trade within that structure. Back seat drivers need not comment, try driving it first. After the fact you get to see the map – that’s easy.

Live Oil Trading Room Video

If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Further Learning:

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Company News:

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Follow:

Article Topics; crude oil, trading, strategies, daytrading, trade box, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, how to trade, alerts, trading room


The First In A New Article Series Intended to Simplify What We Have Learned For The Oil Trader To Use as Actionable Strategies to Increase Win Rate and ROI When Manually Executing Crude Oil Trades.

For Near 3 Years Now We Have Transparently Shared Our Successes and Failures in the Development of Oil Machine Trading Software.

First, For The Benefit of a Wider Than Normal Audience That This Article Is Being Transmitted To, Allow Me To Share Some of Our History.

Understanding a. Where We Have Come From, b. Where We Are Now and c. Where We Are Going Next is Important. Then We’ll Get In To The First Oil Trading Strategy Article.

A. A Brief History of Where We Come From.

As Stated, For Near 3 Years Now We Shared Our Trading and Software Development Journey Real-Time With Our Crude Oil Trading Community (in a Live Trading Room). We Recorded Live Every Minute Of Our Trading and We Also Endeavored to Share Our Findings Via Various Blog Articles, Alerts, Webinars, Coaching and Videos.

Sharing The Details of Our Journey Was Not Easy. It Was Difficult To Find Time to Reconcile Findings In Such a Way That Would Would Be Easily Transferable to Our Community. The Day-to-Day Trading Live in The Room, Alerting Trades, Coding Software, Writing Articles, Coaching etc all Real-Time While in Our Own Discovery Process Was… Lets Just Say A Tad Crazy.

It Also Wasn’t Easy To Share What We Were Learning in a Way That Would Be Easily Understood and Actionable For Our Clients, Not To Mention Knowing When The Next Phase in Development Would Be Successful or Challenging (Having Us Profitable Or Not).

We Set Out In The Beginning To Be Transparent and We Have Held to That Mandate All the Way Through The Process.

And Now, We Know What Works and Does Not Work And We Begin a Real Journey to Share Our Findings. The Goal is to Share This in the Most Succinct and Simple Way Possible – to Make our Findings “Actionable” For The Average Trader. 

Our Story Reveals Secrets Not Commonly Available That Can Help Day Traders Form Proper, Simple, Structured Oil Trading Strategies That Will Increase Your Win Rate, Returns and Lower Risk.

We are Acutely Aware There Are Hundreds of Oil Trading Strategies That Succeed or Fail. The Strategies We Will Share Are Structural in Nature. In Other Words, The Lessons We Learned About The Structure Of Oil Trade and Order Flow Will Help With Any Other Oil Trading Strategies You Are Employing.

Here in The First Article of Its Kind and With a Series of Near Future Planned Informational Articles, Webinars and Select Media Broadcasts, We Endeavor to Summarize and Simplify The Most Important Takeaways for You, The Oil Trader.

B. Where We Are Now.

Recently, we launched real-world testing of version 4 EPIC oil trading software (after running versions 1, 2 and 3 successfully) only to have it (v4) exemplify (once again) the volatility that new version machine trade software deployment encounters.

Prior to the launch of v4 our version 3 oil trade software had proven in real-world testing that it would perform at a rate of return of about 83% per year (which would get better over time as the machine “learned” – the most recent results are closer to 94% per annum).

So needless to say, we were excited about the “next”.

But as we’ve learned over and over again… the “next” can challenge comfort zones in many ways – you could refer to this as our trading risk management threshold – software development and deployment style.

Deployment of version 4 brought volatility that once again exceeded our “risk threshold”. In short, “real world testing” is more about testing our human “risk threshold” or comfort level than it is about whether the software would eventually perform as planned, after all, it does have to be “birthed” and then “learn” and then fly.

But we just weren’t “comfortable” with having to endure the process of the machine software known as version 4 to “learn” and become profitable. Version 4 was a much more aggressive architecture than version 3. So anyway, in short, we abandoned version 4 and returned to the proven version 3. We won’t be returning to v4.

So on Monday August 5, 2019 at 11:00 PM EST we announced the return to v3 and it was “re-born”. It took a day for it to run its start up systems and then started firing trades and has been again profitable since.

“For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts.”

C. Where We Are Going Next (Near Term).

The first day was a quiet day for the v3 software reboot – the action started to come online in day two.

Below, and in near-future articles is where we pick up the story and we will use real-world trading in the live oil trading room to explain as clearly and simply as possible strategies oil day traders can employ to compete with the best of the best.

Each day I will take the oil trading action from the day in the oil trading room and oil trading alerts and post an article specific to the rules the software used to execute the trades with simplicity top of mind when writing the articles.

Traders that study these articles will have the benefit of video recordings of our traders in the oil trading room describing the trades we are manually executing to assist the software developers in “tweaking” the version 3 EPIC software.

The articles will also include various charting (conventional and algorithmic), oil trade chat room trade set up guidance notes from our traders, various articles, informational webinars, select media broadcasts and much more. Some of which will be made available to the general public and some behind our pay wall (subscriber premium material).

When we complete this informational series of articles we will have completed our oil trading development mandates and then go on to the next and the next (in terms of our wider development goals)… 

For now, our goal here is to publish approximately one oil trading article per day with video, host one public informational webinar per week (email us at compoundtradingofficial.com to register for the next webinar), post continued v3 daily P&Ls to our social feeds, and have documented all actionable trade strategies within 60 days.

As stated above, much of this will be public facing and yet other information (the more proprietary) will be made available only to our premium subscribers .

The articles in this series will be sent to the mailing list – so get on it now click here.

Now, Lets Get to The First Lesson in Oil Trade Strategies – Trading With Version 3 With The Lead Trader in The Live Oil Trading Room.

Each article will include at least one lesson (or at least one rule that is included in the software trading rule set).

This first article will be from the oil trading room last Friday, and I will try to catch up the other days from last week at some point soon and as of Monday I’ll be posting each trading day’s action daily.

Here’s how our trading day on Friday went down;

Trading Crude Oil Break Outs.

Trading break-outs (break-ups & break-downs) outside of the most recent trading range is not easy. The reason is simple, you don’t know where the new range of trade will be and you don’t know if it is a true beak-out that will hold.

Our rule set has much more predictable trading set-ups to trade than what we seen on Friday, but lets start here because this was the most recent trading day and future posts will highlight the more predictable set-ups.

All our trades on Friday were winners, I think the v3 software has won every trade since it was rebooted last week and thus far I think it has only had one red day (for 0.02% draw-down).

Trade Sizing, Range Of Trade, Holds & Stops.

Under our v3 protocol, breaks in the price of oil to the current range are traded lightly in terms of sizing and any trade positions are held with tight stops.

In other words, until the new trading range develops, size of trade is to remain small and stop orders need to be considerably rigid because if the break up or down in price does not hold and form a new trading range you do not want to be left holding the bag (a losing position).

If you are caught holding a bag it is important for it to be a small size bag. Our v3 protocol mitigates this also with the ability to determine intra-day bottoms and size in to the next trade to relieve the small losing position when needed. But this is always a very small position if held and is only held intra-day.

In our general informational material about our v3 software vs. v4 this is one of the primary differences in architecture. Version 4 rule-set had holds on a much wider range (you could say a swing trading range) and v3 only holds within the intra-day range as verified by recent trade.

Please Note: When I state absolutes like “v3 only holds” as above, be sure to consider that our software has over 4400 rules that are weighed against each other, so absolutes are not reality, but for the simplicity of our goal here I will often explain rules of trade as absolute.

If you focus on trading range you will find it much more predictable than trading break-outs and break-down in price.

Anyway, before the break-out occurred on Friday we were posting guidance to the oil trade chat room server on Discord and the private member twitter alert feed.

We were also in the live oil trading room stating that trade was likely to break out Friday.

We also provided various immediately applicable guidance to our members specific to resistance and support on the most applicable time frames referencing chart models that our members could refer to.

Below is the morning trading guidance we posted to the crude oil chat room server (Discord private server is used for alerts service along with Twitter feed, alerts are available as a stand alone service or within the bundle with reports and oil trading room access).

The most applicable charting in this instance were the 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute and daily algorithmic chart models.

Note: By “most applicable” I am saying that these particular charts were recently being respected most, by oil trade action, of the various models available. We have numerous algorithmic chart models and conventional charts provided in reporting to members to draw on when providing guidance for their daily trading strategy. Our job is to refer to those that which recent oil trade action has most responded to (or price has respected support and resistance areas on the charts).

Also specifically to the information below, the preferred buy triggers are areas of support that provide high probability for bounce trades intra-day should price actually not break-out. A significant part of the v3 trading rules applies to key areas of support intra-day that liquidity in oil markets that are machine traded are most likely to trigger large buy programs to.

Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:10 AM
Preferred buys on 15 min model; 51.83, 52.02, 52.29, 52.78 trading 53.11 intra day
Preferred buys on EPIC 30 min model; 51.88, 52.49, 52.74. Main resistance 53.65, 54.31, 54.43

Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:25 AM
Top of range on daily 53.94 (uptrending TL on model) if held, over that is break-out / divergent. Trading 53.21. Order flow says it can happen. Trading 53.24.
Preferred buy trigger on 5 min model. 52.70 9:30 AM at inflection of time cycle running 8:00 AM – 11:00 AM

Oil, trading, chat, room, trader, guidance

Crude Oil Trading Chat Room – Lead Traders Provide Technical Guidance for the Members in Advance of Trading Day

JeremyLast Friday at 8:38 AM
Order flow and volume since Thurs / internals say break to upside probable.

oil, trading, chat room, guidance

Continued guidance provided to members in oil trading room – crude oil resistance on daily chart – range of trade

First Oil Trade of the Day – Break Out Trade, A Quick Bullish Trade to Range of 1 Minute Chart Model

Normally we can alert our trades to the alert feeds on Twitter and Discord, but on Friday we were only alerting live in the main oil trading room because trade action and the break out were developing very quickly and there was no time to type the alerts.

Now I will point out quick I sometimes try and do my part on my public facing Twitter feed, I did warn the shorts the night prior of this action setting up because we knew there was accumulation in order flow that started the day prior.

Curtis Melonopoly
@curtmelonopoly
Careful shorties #OOTT $CL_F

Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 9:07 AM
Software got that with 1/10 only now out happened too fast to alert typing, was alerted in live room
cradle of the quad

first, oil, trade, premarket

The first oil trade of the day was in regular US market premarket, 1 min and daily charting shows the trade range.

Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 9:35 AM
@Jen 54.32 – 54.48 1/10 traded thanks
in trading room yes

Below is the screen capture from the oil chat room showing the Daily Chart Model resistance that trade hit and the cradle of the EPIC Oil Algorithm resistance that trade hit.

Oil algorithmic charting showing the range of trade for the premarket trade – daily and 30 min charts in oil chat room.

oil chat room, trading range, winning trade

Oil algorithmic charting showing the range of trade for the premarket trade – daily and 30 min charts in oil chat room

Lessons From Oil Trade #1 (Break-Out) in Oil Trading Room:

  1. Trade Size – This is a break out trade so trade size was 1/10 size. The v3 protocol is small like this, version 4 would have sized this trade larger.
  2. One Minute Model Structured Range, Upside Resistance Broke – Trade was executed long above the one minute model support / resistance and trade was closed as the next resistance on the one minute model was hit. This was also recent intra-day break of trading range – THIS IS IMPORTANT. Also, if you were confident in the new range holding you could size 2/10 or more and release some at top of one minute trading range and hold some to see if the one minute support held on pull back. Our v3 software will do this if order flow shows a high probability and low risk to such.
  3. Resistance on Chart Models – A key resistance on the EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm chart model was hit as was the trading resistance on the daily chart. This provided further reason to exit or trim the long trade.
  4. Time of Day, Premarket, Momentum – Look at the time of day of the trade. Premarket trade action is critical to watch for a general direction in to regular US market open. Also important are the key times, in premarket the 15 minute and 30 minute candles are critical. This was a 9:00 AM  30 minute candle momentum trade.

Live Oil Trading Room Video

On the live oil trading room video the alert for oil trade #1 on the day starts at 1:22:22 on the video timer and at 8:59 AM EST on the time at bottom right of screen with a notice to live trading room that positive order flow indicates a long trade break out set-up building. Over the next few minutes the trigger is activated (I’m concerned at this point about getting too many traders thinking to bullish because break outs are tough, however, I do announce the long trade at 1/10 size). Price target on the day 53.87 is discussed, trading 53.11 at this point of trade in live oil trading room.

You can see on the trading room video the price of oil come off to the 5 min model support and bounce (typical right before a break our for price to come off and then go).

At about 1:30:00 on the video you will see price pressing the resistance on the next upside trading quadrant on the EPIC Oil Algorithm model.

Lessons From Trade # 2 in Break Out.

At approximately 1:57:30 on the video timer we’re executing long again at 54.32 – 54.48. 

  1. Continuation, Intra-day Trend/Strength – There was continuation in the break out.
  2. Resistance Breaks – Price was up over 1 minute range resistance for the long. Price was up over the 30 minute range resistance, and the horizontal historical resistance (yellow).
  3. Close Trade at Range Resistance, You Can Always Re-Enter if Price Continues Bullish – Trade was closed as price entered resistance on the 30 minute model.
  4. Break Out Trade Size Should Be Small – Trade was small at 1/10 size because this is a break out and there is no guarantee the intra-day range developing would hold. Larger size in more appropriate in predictable range trading intra-day.

Lessons From Trade # 3 in Break Out.

At about 3:40:40 on the video we have triggered a trade in $CL_F long 1/10 at 54.31. Here again with tight stops pending order flow.

This was a high frequency order flow battle area intra-day in the break-out area of oil trade in the markets on the day

The time cycles intra day had us expecting more pressure on price that did not occur so when the HFT’s in the market started to trade it stronger we entered with them. This is not a set up that will help the every day oil trader to a great degree unless you were in the trading room with us and understood every detail of the set up as described, not a trade for the beginner.

It was a winning trade, but not the easiest. Most day trades with oil break outs are not what I would describe as easy. At issue, again, is that you don’t want to get caught holding a bag in a failed break out.

The video does go through various other more advanced signals we use as the trade of oil progresses intra-day.

At 3:35:27 on the video you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.

Trading Rule-Set Lessons:

  1. Positive Order Flow – Buy side order flow started strong as price entered the range of the 1 minute model support (the range is marked with blue/red/white horizontal lines clustered). We wanted a buy trigger lower but considering the bullish action on the day this was the reversal point.
  2. Double Bottom Support – Buy side order flow started strong as price entered the double bottom intra-day range.
  3. Progressive Increasing Volume – Progressive volume was obvious.
  4. Close at Resistance – At 4:00:50 approximately on video recorder timer we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance. The timing was perfect for exit also based on intra-day time cycle frequencies (intra-day time cycle frequencies as it relates to trading this day are not what I will explain in this post, in short that specific discipline in our rule-set takes considerable experience). Nevertheless, clear resistance was hit and on the video you will hear me count down to the time cycle completion and a perfect hit to resistance and exit of the long trade.

On the video at 3:35:27 you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.

oil trading room, trade alert, crude, CL_F

On the video you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.

Screen shot below of oil trading room live trade alert – we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance.

oil, trading, room, screen shot, alert

Oil trading room live trade alert – we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance.

There were other miscellaneous trades on the day (all winners) but considering the complexity of signals on this day (considering it was a break out early structure) I think I will leave it there. I would rather focus these posts on the most predictable and easily executable trades for our oil traders to learn.

The next post I will do tomorrow (Monday) evening after we’re done trading for the day. 

If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed [email protected] and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Since the end of December when the price of nearby NYMEX crude oil futures fell to a low at $42.36 per barrel, the price recovered to $66.60 in April and fell to a low at $50.52 last week. At $54.50 on the nearby September NYMEX crude oil futures contract on August 9, the price is at the midpoint of the trading range since December 2018. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284072-crude-oil-monkey-middle

Further Learning:

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Company News:

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Follow:

Article Topics; crude oil, trading, strategies, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, how to trade, alerts, trading room


Crude Oil Sell-Off Continues – Here’s How We’re Trading It. Strategies for Day Trading and Swing Trading The Move.

The current oil sell-off may last some time. The US – China trade war may continue for months or more putting pressure on the price of oil due to global slowdown demand perceptions.

‘At the edge of a cliff’: Oil prices could plummet to US$40 if U.S.-China trade war drags down global economy
Just the collapse of trade growth has shorn 500,000 bpd out of oil demand https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/at-the-edge-of-a-cliff-oil-prices-could-plummet-to-us40-if-u-s-china-trade-war-drags-down-global-economy

The objective of this report is to identify the areas of support on the oil charting so that our traders / clients can execute trades for possible areas for a bounce.

This will also serve as important areas of support that short selling crude oil traders will want to consider for covering all or some of their positions. 

The technical indicators below (charting and time cycles) will provide signals for day trade and swing trade oil traders.

As of last Thursday, after the Fed decision to lower rates a quarter point and after Trumps tweet about China the order flow has been considerably negative and the price of oil reflects this.

Dow plunges 760 points in worst day of 2019 as trade war intensifies https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/us-futures-amid-trade-turmoil-between-beijing-and-washington.html

However, there are near term support areas in the charting coming soon so these areas may provide some relief bounces in price. Below we look at the crude oil charting on different time frames. 

Both conventional and algorithmic chart models are provided below.

The focus in this report is toward “Keep it Simple Charting (KISS)” to visualize the range of trade which can make it easier to focus on general areas of support and resistance to watch.

For more detailed charting refer to recent premium member reporting and / or charting sent directly to our members via email and / posted in Discord or in oil trading room.

To simplify your trading take your trade positions only at key support or resistance decision areas on whichever time-frame is most appropriate to your requirements. When a trader is struggling, this is one method to correct course and get trading green again. This is also a great method of getting correct positioning / bias in significant sell-offs and bull runs.

Focus on the simple trading ranges first – the channels, the trend lines etc on various time frames on the simplified charts, then move to the algorithmic models to refine trade entries. Then consider time cycles, time of day, volume, recent trade action, technical indicators such as MACD and moving averages, fundamentals, news flow and more.

When you have the macro view in place, the technical algorithmic view then you can use your trading process for your entries. A refined trading process (an edge) is critical.

Keep it Simple (KISS) monthly oil chart says range 47 – 70 with 58 area pivot, 57.76 near resistance and 51.83 near support to watch. Trading 53.65 intra-day.

Also of note on the monthly time-frame is that the MACD is pinching / turning down and the squeeze momentum indicator is trending red.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/nUMivzGg-Keep-it-Simple-KISS-monthly-oil-chart-says-range-47-70-with/

oil, monthly, chart

KISS monthly oil chart says range 47 – 70 with 58 area pivot, 57.76 near resistance and 51.83 near support to watch. Trading 53.65 intra-day.

The Keep it Simple Weekly Crude Oil Chart – Price at 200 MA, MACD turned down, trend lines to watch.

While I am compiling this report price is testing the 200 MA support on the weekly crude oil chart, you can consider this area a prime consideration for a bounce near term. Moving averages are not precise indicators for support and resistance but do provide for near term trade bias. The MACD is turned down on the weekly which favors the bears considerably on this time-frame.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/iMelWGSu-The-Keep-it-Simple-Weekly-Crude-Oil-Chart-Price-at-200-MA-MAC/

Weekly, crude, oil chart

The Keep it Simple Weekly Crude Oil Chart – Price at 200 MA, MACD turned down, trend lines to watch.

On the simple Daily crude oil chart price is testing key trend line support areas intra day. Watch close here for a bounce.

The MACD is also turned down on the daily time-frame, and I wouldn’t expect an extended rally in crude oil due to the trade war, but a considerable bounce could happen here.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/WCyL1BDW-On-the-simple-Daily-crude-oil-chart-price-is-testing-key-trend-l/

oil, daily, chart

On the simple Daily crude oil chart price is testing key trend line support areas intra day. Watch close here for a bounce.

Oil did sell off in to the lower part of the 60 minute chart quad (time cycle) and should bounce to 55.00 area at minimum.

We were talking about this scenario possibly playing out in the oil trading room, and sure enough price sold off right in to that time cycle peak on the 60 minute chart model and is now bouncing on the other side of the time cycle.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/APqtrOOa-Oil-did-sell-off-in-to-the-lower-part-of-the-60-minute-chart-qua/

oil, 60 min chart

Oil did sell off in to the lower part of the 60 minute chart quad (time cycle) and should bounce to 55.00 area at minimum.

Algorithmic Charting

The next time cycle low possible in VIX (see VIX report) is in to September 9 – 16 with a recent peak being August 5 (a week prior and after allowed for large time cycle). This implies that oil may bounce in to this time-frame and then begin its next leg down thereafter and in to the Oct 21, 2019 VIX time cycle peak. It is important however to keep top of mind that time cycles can work totally the opposite. The implied peak could be the bottom and the opposite is true, so be cautious with trajectory of trade to determine bias. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/6pKtcjcR-Volatility-VIX-swing-trade-strategy-is-to-wait-until-between-S/

The link to the most recent 1 minute oil trading model for daytrading sniping precision https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/RDDX0la5-1/

The link to the most recent 5 minute oil trading model for daytrading and intra day time cycles https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/HNP8d3Rq-5/

The link to the most recent 30 minute EPIC oil algorithm chart model.

Key support and resistance at quads, channels, mid channels and mid quads. Key areas of consideration intra-day. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ztAfe3gL-temp-epic-in-advance-of-report/

Many other charts are available on recent reports, sent to members on email, posted in discord chat room, in oil trading room and on alert feeds.

Be sure to watch our trade alerts on our alert feeds and in live trading room.

If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed [email protected].

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Hedge Funds Turn Their Back On Oil https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hedge-Funds-Turn-Their-Back-On-Oil.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=tw_repost

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Article Topics; crude oil, trading, strategies, daytrading, swingtrading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL


Crude Oil Trade Strategies Report June 30, 2019.

Trade Alert Signals for Crude Oil (CL) Day Trading, Trend and Swing Trading. Intra-Day, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Time-Frames.

The strategies that include charts, algorithm models, signals, price targets and guidance included below are suitable for mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding staff reference for our crude oil machine trade development.

With each chart model we may include trade strategy notes for your consideration.

For perspective, review historical reporting on our blog and the various videos we have published to our YouTube channel.

Much of the structured model discipline used is similar in concept as discussed in this video; Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street.

Crude oil price moves within structured areas (ranges) of trade / charting on various time frames (different time cycles of trade).

The structure oil price moves within (the range) can be one minute charting timing through to monthly charting.

Time-frame set-ups / strategies are charted as conventional chart set-ups and/ or algorithmic chart set-ups (structures).

Understanding and having each time frame at your immediate access (both conventional and algorithmic) will increase the probability of profitable trading.

Sizing trades appropriate to your trading account and time frame for each set-up is additionally a positive strategy.

Using the correct chart time-frame specific to your trading strategy is critical. Generally, the lower (smaller) the time frame the less predictable the support and resistance areas (or structure) of the chart will be. However, the larger time-frames (monthly, weekly, daily) may also have significant “slippage” but the primary structure will often remain intact.

Generally, the idea is to enter your positions based on the structure for the specific time frame you are wanting to trade referencing the other time frame support and resistance or range within the trend. The basic method is to understand the range of trade and execute trade long bias when price is near support for the appropriate time frame / structure and the opposite is true for short trades.

Our staff use the thirty minute model structures (range within trends) most often for primary areas of support and resistance trading signals referencing all other time-frames in their trading strategy.

Positioning should be significantly biased to the trending range of trade. For more information about trend identification for trading various time-frames refer to this article on Investopedia; Multiple Time Frames Can Multiply Returns.

If you have questions about the models below please email us at [email protected].

Not all charts are updated every week and some concept or test charts are added or deleted on occasion. If you are a new client that would like to review historical reports that are still locked on the blog from public view please email the office with your request and we will send you recent reports to review.

Please note, chart links that support the models below are now distributed specific to each user or small group of users. If you are using more than one device to access the charting, to avoid disruption of service, please email us a simple / general description of those devices to assist in controlling dissemination.

EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model. 30 Minute Oil Chart Structure.

The EPIC algorithm model chart below is a proprietary structure that has been back tested sixty months on thirteen time-frames. The model represents the most probable areas of support and resistance in oil trade within this specific time-frame.

The levels noted on the EPIC model are to be used as important areas of consideration for support and resistance (trade signals) for your trading strategy when using conventional charting set-ups / structures and/or other algorithmic charting.

Resistance and support areas on the thirty minute oil trade structure chart are at each line on the algorithmic chart. The primary areas of support and resistance are;

  • Outer quadrant walls / also used as channel support and resistance (orange dotted diagonal lines), the half way point between each is often an executable buy or sell trigger in trade (not shown on model below),
  • Mid channel line for uptrend and down trend (white dotted diagonal),
  • Mid quad horizontal (not marked but is at the mid point of the quad),
  • Fibonacci levels (various horizontal colored lines),
  • Historical areas of support and resistance (purple horizontal).
  • The intra-week swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next (commonly becomes a pivot area of trade).
  • The important historical diagonal trend-lines (conventional trend lines) are represented on the chart as thick white lines.
  • Also of note are the price targets for Tuesday 4:30 PM (API), Wednesday 10:30 AM (EIA) and Friday 1:00 PM (Rig Count). The Tuesday and Wednesday targets hit significantly more often than the Friday target (red circles with red or green vertical dotted lines intersecting).
  • At times other indicators are added to the chart such as important trend lines “in play”, moving averages and more.

The video at this link explains How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, #OIL, #Trading, #Algorithm, #OOTT as does this video Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart June 21 #OIL #OOTT and this Webinar 1: EPIC the Oil Algorithm.

When conventional crude oil charting coincides (or agrees) with the EPIC algorithmic model support and resistance this is then considered a significant buy or sell trigger (signal) for crude oil trade.

Be aware (at minimum) of the primary support and resistance areas on the larger time-frames (lower time frames are not as critical) – in this instance (when trading the 30 min time frame) the 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charting should be considered when sizing your trades.

30 Minute Charting.

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm June 30 536 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/EiXqdIA9-EPIC-30-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Algorithm-June-30-536-PM-FX-USOIL/

EPIC, Algorithm, Model, Crude Oil

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm June 30 536 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

One Minute Oil Trading Model. Ideal for Intra-day Crude Oil Trade.

The one minute oil trading model provides for pinpoint trade entry, sizing and exit points for daytrading oil. It is also used for squeeze scenarios in oil day trading. The main range is between the red / blue areas with thicker dotted white lines. The range is considerably more predictable in a squeeze scenario.

Intra-day diagonal trend-lines should be added by the daytrader.

If you need a recent 1 minute model email the office and a link will be sent to you.

Per recent;

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trade) April 20 1120 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/nDjB9hSd-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-day-trade-April-20-1120-PM-FX/

daytrading, crude, oil, chart

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trade) April 20 1120 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

5 Minute Charting.

The five minute oil trading strategy chart below includes a Elliot impulse 5 wave component for when oil is trading intra-day on this time frame. The horizontal / diagonal / sloping up-trending green lines can be used as support and resistance decision areas.

5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model 717 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/uvYbF4U2-5-Min-Crude-Oil-Trade-Model-717-PM-June-30-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO-CL/

oil, 5 min, chart

15 Minute Charting.

Recent crude oil trade makes a predictable 15 minute model difficult, below are some trend lines to consider until a structured range or channel possibly develops.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/AXAGZH0R-15-Min-Crude-Oil-Charting-Trend-Lines-to-Consider/

15 min, trendlines, crude, oil, chart

15 Min Crude Oil Charting Trend Lines to Consider.

15 minute abstract crude oil model in development, under test.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Wdh3MUpH-15-minute-abstract-crude-oil-model-in-development-under-test/

15 min, test, chart, crude oil

15 minute abstract crude oil model in development, under test.

60 Minute Charting.

Per recent;

60 Min Trend Channel Trade Box Fork (concept chart) May 29 1:10 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/zvQ2QZmJ-60-Min-Trend-Channel-Trade-Box-Fork-concept-chart-May-29-1-10/

60 min, crude, oil, trend, fork, chart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/zvQ2QZmJ-60-Min-Trend-Channel-Trade-Box-Fork-concept-chart-May-29-1-10/

2 Hour (120 Min) Charting.

Trend Lines Everywhere – 120 Minute Crude Oil Trend line chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/2GApDvIG-Trend-Lines-Everywhere-120-Minute-Crude-Oil-Trend-line-chart/

120 min chart, oil, trend lines

Trend Lines Everywhere – 120 Minute Crude Oil Trend line chart.

4 Hour Charting.

240 Min Crude Oil Chart Structure 1007 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ubq9VomQ-240-Min-Crude-Oil-Chart-Structure-1007-PM-June-30-FX-USOIL-WTI/

240 min, crude, oil, chart

240 Min Crude Oil Chart Doodle Pad 1011 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/SGBvb0gC-240-Min-Crude-Oil-Chart-Doodle-Pad-1011-PM-June-30-FX-USOIL-WTI/

240 Min, Chart, Oil

240 Min Crude Oil Chart Doodle Pad 1011 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

4 Hour Oil Trending Channel Chart with Trading Boxes Moving Averages 123 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/OryQDlVj-4-Hour-Oil-Trending-Channel-Chart-with-Trading-Boxes-Moving-Aver/

4 hr, crude, oil, chart, trending channel

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/OryQDlVj-4-Hour-Oil-Trending-Channel-Chart-with-Trading-Boxes-Moving-Aver/

Per recent;

4 Hour Symmetry Chart, Needs to be Cleaned Up May 19 134 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/CjULpMlK-4-Hour-Symmetry-Chart-Needs-to-be-Cleaned-Up-May-19-134-PM-FX-U/

4 hr, crude, oil, symmetry , chart

4 Hour Symmetry Chart, Needs to be Cleaned Up May 19 134 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

The 4 hour crude oil concept model below has trend-lines, Fibonacci support and resistance horizontal lines (pay close attention to the gray horizontal lines) and diagonal algorithmic Fib trend lines (orange dotted).

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 19 154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/NsZhL9MR-4-Hour-Concept-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-May-19-154-PM-FX-USOIL-WT/

4 hr, concept, chart, crude, oil

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 19 154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.

Daily Charting.

The daily time frame provides a larger structure to consider. The diagonal Fib lines are important as are the mid quad horizontal lines. The moving averages (especially the 200 MA) should be considered in your trade strategy. The MACD is a common indicator on the daily oil chart for forward positioning and trend bias.

Daily Crude Oil Trend Line, Range Chart 1019 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/AKqikZGf-Daiy-Crude-Oil-Trend-Line-Range-Chart-1019-PM-June-30-FX-USOIL/

daily, crude, oil, trend line , chart

Daily Crude Oil Trend Line, Range Chart 1019 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Daily Crude Oil Chart, Trend Line Considerations 1026 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/G5TBG0dt-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Trend-Line-Considerations-1026-PM-June-30/

Daily, crude, oil, chart, trendlines

Daily Crude Oil Chart, Trend Line Considerations 1026 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross 200 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/YQqAuPhh-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Golden-Cross-200-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL-WTI-U/

daily, crude, oil, chart, golden cross

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/YQqAuPhh-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Golden-Cross-200-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL-WTI-U/

Weekly Charting.

Weekly Crude Oil Time Cycle Chart 1016 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/bi8O93Pc-Weekly-Crude-Oil-Time-Cycle-Chart-1016-PM-June-30-FX-USOIL-WTI/

Weekly, crude, oil, trading, time cycle

Weekly Crude Oil Time Cycle Chart 1016 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Weekly Crude Oil Trend Line, Range Chart 1023 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Sa5MiLG4-Weekly-Crude-Oil-Trend-Line-Range-Chart-1023-PM-June-30-FX-USOI/

weekly, trendline, chart

Weekly Crude Oil Trend Line, Range Chart 1023 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

Weekly crude oil chart perspective May 19 1036 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/VvOHyD82-Weekly-crude-oil-chart-perspective-May-19-1036-AM-FX-USOIL-WTI/

weekly, oil, chart, perspective

Weekly crude oil chart perspective May 19 1036 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

The most important signals on the weekly chart model are the red historical trend lines. Pay very close attention to them. There are other common indicators included on the model also.

Per recent;

Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 118 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

May 6 – price nearing an important trend line support (red line on chart below).

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/hCwxU92o-Weekly-Trendline-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-May-6-118-AM-FX-USOIL-W/

Weekly, crude, oil, chart, trend lines

Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 118 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Monthly Charting.

Monthly Crude Oil Structure 1029 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/7Aq5RZQp-Monthly-Crude-Oil-Structure-1029-PM-June-30-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO-C/

monthly, crude, oil, chart, structure

Monthly Crude Oil Structure 1029 PM June 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 209 PM May19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ih0o30Tj-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-209-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL/

monthly, oil, chart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ih0o30Tj-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-209-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL/

Per recent;

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 126 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Weekly trend line resistance area holding so far.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/19KquYtJ-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-126-AM-May-6-FX-USOIL/

monthly, crude, oil, chart, structure

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 126 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/sttZx83M-Monthly-200-MA-Crude-Oil-Trading-Chart-April-8-1247-AM-FX-USOIL/

monthly, oil , chart

Monthly 200 MA Crude Oil Trading Chart April 8 1247 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Oil Price Targets

Machines were in control last week. When crude oil sold off Friday it first hit upside price target and then sold off in to lower price target perfect (Price Targets published on weekend prior report) Lower PT shown below. #machinetrading FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

crude, oil, algorithm, price target, alert

When crude oil sold off Friday it first hit upside price target and in to lower price target perfect (PTs published on weekend prior report) FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

crude, oil, price target, alert

When crude oil sold off Friday it first hit upside price target – but not perfectly, and then in to lower perfect (PTs published on weekend prior report) FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Futures, Strategy, Signals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Crude Oil Trade Strategy Updates June 23, 2019.

Signals for CL Day Trading, Trend and Swing Trading. Intra-Day, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Time-Frames.

The charts, algorithm models, signals, price targets and guidance included below are suitable for mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding staff reference for our crude oil machine trade development.

With each chart model we may include trade strategy notes for your consideration.

For perspective, review historical reporting on our blog and the various videos we have published to our YouTube channel.

Much of the structured model discipline used is similar in concept as discussed in this video; Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street.

Crude oil price moves within structured areas (ranges) of charting on various time frames (different time cycles in trade). The structure oil price moves within (the range) can be one minute charting timing through to monthly charting. Time-frame set-ups / strategies are charted as conventional chart set-ups and/ or algorithmic chart set-ups (structures). Understanding and having each time frame at your immediate access (both conventional and algorithmic) will increase the probability of profitable trading.

Sizing your trades appropriate to your trading account and time frame for each set-up is additionally positive strategy.

Using the correct chart time-frame specific to your trading strategy is critical. Generally, the lower (smaller) the time frame the less predictable the support and resistance areas of the chart will be. However, the larger time-frames (monthly, weekly, daily) can also have significant “slippage”.

Generally, the idea is to enter your positions based on the structure for the specific time frame you are wanting to trade referencing the other time frame support and resistance or range within the trend. The basic method is to understand the range of trade and execute trade long bias when price is near support for the appropriate time frame / structure and the opposite is true for short trades.

Our staff use the thirty minute model structures (range within trends) most often for primary areas of support and resistance trading signals referencing all other time-frames in their trading strategy.

Positioning should be significantly biased to the trending range of trade. For more information about trend identification for trading various time-frames refer to this article on Investopedia; Multiple Time Frames Can Multiply Returns.

If you have questions about the models below please email us at [email protected].

Not all charts are updated every week and some concept or test charts are added or deleted on occasion.

Please note, the chart links are now distributed specific to each user or small group of users. If you are using more than one device to access the charting, to avoid disruption of service, please email us a simple / general description of those devices to assist in controlling dissemination.

EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model. 30 Minute Oil Chart Structure.

The EPIC algorithm model chart below is a proprietary structure that has been back tested sixty months on thirteen time-frames. The model represents the most probable areas of support and resistance in oil trade within this specific time-frame.

The levels noted on the EPIC model are to be used as important areas of consideration for support and resistance (trade signals) for your trading strategy when using conventional charting set-ups / structures and/or other algorithmic charting.

Resistance and support areas on the thirty minute charting oil trade structure are at each line on the algorithmic chart. The primary areas of support and resistance are;

  • Outer quadrant walls / also used as channel support and resistance (orange dotted diagonal lines), the half way point between each is often an executable buy or sell trigger in trade (not shown on model below),
  • Mid channel line for uptrend and down trend (white dotted diagonal),
  • Mid quad horizontal (not marked but is at the mid point of the quad),
  • Fibonacci levels (various horizontal colored lines),
  • Historical areas of support and resistance (purple horizontal).
  • The intra-week swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next (commonly becomes a pivot area of trade).
  • The important historical diagonal trend-lines (conventional trend lines) are represented on the chart as thick white lines.
  • Also of note are the price targets for Tuesday 4:30 PM (API), Wednesday 10:30 AM (EIA) and Friday 1:00 PM (Rig Count). The Tuesday and Wednesday targets hit significantly more often than the Friday target (red circles with red or green vertical dotted lines intersecting).
  • At times other indicators are added to the chart such as trend lines and moving averages.

The video at this link explains How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, #OIL, #Trading, #Algorithm, #OOTT as does this video Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart June 21 #OIL #OOTT and this Webinar 1: EPIC the Oil Algorithm.

When conventional crude oil charting coincides (or agrees) with the EPIC algorithmic model support and resistance this is then considered a significant buy or sell trigger (signal) for crude oil trade.

Be aware (at minimum) of the primary support and resistance areas on the larger time-frames (lower time frames are not as critical) – in this instance (when trading the 30 min time frame) the 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charting should be considered when sizing your trades etc.

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm June 23 233 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Aspfj3Gn-EPIC-30-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Algorithm-June-23-233-PM-FX-USOIL/

Crude, oil, algorithm

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm June 23 233 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

Crude Oil 30 Minute Alternate Chart Models.

Per recent;

30 Min Alternate Trend Lines Crude Oil Trading Model 1229 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/MVEzFhMX-30-Min-Alternate-Trend-Lines-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-1229-PM-May/

alternate,, crude, oil, model, trend lines

30 Min Alternate Trend Lines Crude Oil Trading Model 1229 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

One Minute Oil Trading Model. Ideal for Intra-day Crude Oil Trade.

The one minute oil trading model provides for pinpoint trade entry, sizing and exit points for daytrading oil. It is also used for squeeze scenarios in oil day trading. The main range is between the red / blue areas with thicker dotted white lines. The range is considerably more predictable in a squeeze scenario.

Intra-day diagonal trend-lines should be added by the daytrader.

Per recent;

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trade) April 20 1120 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/nDjB9hSd-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-day-trade-April-20-1120-PM-FX/

daytrading, crude, oil, chart

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trade) April 20 1120 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

5 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model.

The five minute oil trading strategy chart below includes a Elliot impulse 5 wave component for when oil is trading intra-day on this time frame. The horizontal / diagonal / sloping up-trending green lines can be used as support and resistance decision areas.

5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model 308 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/NRFNC1Yc-5-Min-Crude-Oil-Trade-Model-308-PM-June-23-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO-CL/

5 min, crude, oil, chart

5 Min Crude Oil Trade Model 308 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

15 Minute Crude Oil Trading Model(s). 

Crude oil 15 min channel chart version one.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/kobbU9WE-15-channel/

crude, oil, 15 min, channel, charting

Crude oil 15 min channel chart version one.

Crude Oil 15 Min Channels Vers 2 (needs work), 1231 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Chart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Z1GOB57x-Crude-Oil-15-Min-Channels-Vers-2-needs-work-1231-PM-June-23-F/

crude, oil, 15 min, channel, chart

Crude Oil 15 Min Channels Vers 2 (needs work), 1231 PM June 23 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Chart

Per recent;

Crude oil range of trade May 19 927 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/e2Us19Re-Crude-oil-range-of-trade-May-19-927-AM-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO-CL-F/

range of trade, crude, oil, chart

Crude oil range of trade May 19 927 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

60 Minute Oil Charting.

Per recent;

60 Min Trend Channel Trade Box Fork (concept chart) May 29 1:10 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/zvQ2QZmJ-60-Min-Trend-Channel-Trade-Box-Fork-concept-chart-May-29-1-10/

60 min, crude, oil, trend, fork, chart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/zvQ2QZmJ-60-Min-Trend-Channel-Trade-Box-Fork-concept-chart-May-29-1-10/

4 Hour Trending Channel Chart.

Per recent;

4 Hour Oil Trending Channel Chart with Trading Boxes Moving Averages 123 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/OryQDlVj-4-Hour-Oil-Trending-Channel-Chart-with-Trading-Boxes-Moving-Aver/

4 hr, crude, oil, chart, trending channel

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/OryQDlVj-4-Hour-Oil-Trending-Channel-Chart-with-Trading-Boxes-Moving-Aver/

4 Hour Symmetry Chart Model.

Per recent;

4 Hour Symmetry Chart, Needs to be Cleaned Up May 19 134 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/CjULpMlK-4-Hour-Symmetry-Chart-Needs-to-be-Cleaned-Up-May-19-134-PM-FX-U/

4 hr, crude, oil, symmetry , chart

4 Hour Symmetry Chart, Needs to be Cleaned Up May 19 134 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

4 Hour Oil Concept Trading Model.

Per recent;

The 4 hour crude oil concept model below has trend-lines, Fibonacci support and resistance horizontal lines (pay close attention to the gray horizontal lines) and diagonal algorithmic Fib trend lines (orange dotted).

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 19 154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/NsZhL9MR-4-Hour-Concept-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-May-19-154-PM-FX-USOIL-WT/

4 hr, concept, chart, crude, oil

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 19 154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.

Per recent;

4 Hour Concept Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 1216 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/UIK74UEj-4-Hour-Concept-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-May-6-1216-AM-FX-USOIL-WT/

Daily Chart Trading Model(s).

The daily time frame provides a larger structure to consider. The diagonal Fib lines are important as are the mid quad horizontal lines. The moving averages (especially the 200 MA) should be considered in your trade strategy. The MACD is a common indicator on the daily oil chart for forward positioning and trend bias.

Crude Oil Daily View with 200 MA overhead of Weekly Range, channel and trendlines $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/vTu7oGCT-Crude-Oil-Daily-View-with-200-MA-overhead-of-Weekly-Range-chann/

crude, oil, daily, chart

Crude Oil Daily View with 200 MA overhead of Weekly Range, channel and trendlines $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart

Per recent;

Daily Crude Oil, MACD turned down, first price target ext lower met 1249 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ZV34H2MD-Daily-Crude-Oil-MACD-turned-down-first-price-target-ext-lower/

Daily, crude, oil, chart

Daily Crude Oil, MACD turned down, first price target ext lower met 1249 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

April 28, 2019 Trading Strategy / Set-Up Based on Symmetry in the Trend on the Daily Chart.

A sell off in exact place in structure of daily chart model did occur once previous in this trend (see two circled areas on daily chart below).

The two instances of selling pressure in the bullish daily trend in oil trade happens to be a perfect symmetrical measured extension in the progression.

IF crude oil trades up the same measured extension as the low to the first sell off in the symmetry, this would imply a high in this trend for crude oil on FX USOIL WTI to approximately 69.00 – if symmetry continues.

Before a pull back, or about 600 ticks from where oil is currently trading at 62.96.

See chart below;

Daily Crude Oil Chart with Symmetry of Previous Sell Off and Price Target of 69.00 if Symmetry Continues 1154 PM April 28 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/jATfXaXD-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-with-Symmetry-of-Previous-Sell-Off-and-Pri/

Oil, Chart, Daily, Symmetry

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/jATfXaXD-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-with-Symmetry-of-Previous-Sell-Off-and-Pri/

Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross 200 PM May 19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/YQqAuPhh-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Golden-Cross-200-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL-WTI-U/

daily, crude, oil, chart, golden cross

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/YQqAuPhh-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Golden-Cross-200-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL-WTI-U/

Pre recent;

Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross Set Up Still In Play Despite Sell Off 1255 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/yCiGcZBL-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Golden-Cross-Set-Up-Still-In-Play-Despite/

daily, crude, oil, chart, golden cross

Daily Crude Oil Chart Golden Cross Set Up Still In Play Despite Sell Off 1255 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Weekly Oil Trading Model(s).

Crude Oil Weekly (Magnified+) Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/4dBiZJwz-Crude-Oil-Weekly-Magnified-Range-channel-and-trend-lines-to/

crude, oil, weekly, chart

Crude Oil Weekly (Magnified+) Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart

Crude Oil Weekly Chart – Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ZK7hOQCy-Crude-Oil-Weekly-Chart-Range-channel-and-trend-lines-to-consi/

crude, oil, weekly, chart, trendlines

Crude Oil Weekly Chart – Range, channel and trend lines to consider. Noisy, but each line decent signal $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OilChart

Per recent;

Weekly crude oil chart perspective May 19 1036 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/VvOHyD82-Weekly-crude-oil-chart-perspective-May-19-1036-AM-FX-USOIL-WTI/

weekly, oil, chart, perspective

Weekly crude oil chart perspective May 19 1036 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

The most important signals on the weekly chart model are the red historical trend lines. Pay very close attention to them. There are other common indicators included on the model also.

Per recent;

Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 118 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

May 6 – price nearing an important trend line support (red line on chart below).

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/hCwxU92o-Weekly-Trendline-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-May-6-118-AM-FX-USOIL-W/

Weekly, crude, oil, chart, trend lines

Weekly Trendline Crude Oil Trading Model May 6 118 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

Oil Time Cycle comes in June 10, can it reverse prior FX USOIL $WTI $CL_F $UWT $DWT #timecycles #Oil #OOTT

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/LBLJTba7-Oil-Time-Cycle-comes-in-June-10-can-it-reverse-prior-See-notes/

Crude, oil, time cycle, chart, model

Oil Time Cycle comes in June 10, can it reverse prior FX USOIL $WTI $CL_F $UWT $DWT #timecycles #Oil #OOTT

Monthly Oil Trading Model.

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 209 PM May19 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ih0o30Tj-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-209-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL/

monthly, oil, chart

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ih0o30Tj-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-209-PM-May-19-FX-USOIL/

Per recent;

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 126 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Weekly trend line resistance area holding so far.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/19KquYtJ-Monthly-Structure-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-126-AM-May-6-FX-USOIL/

monthly, crude, oil, chart, structure

Monthly Structure Crude Oil Trading Model 126 AM May 6 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/sttZx83M-Monthly-200-MA-Crude-Oil-Trading-Chart-April-8-1247-AM-FX-USOIL/

monthly, oil , chart

Monthly 200 MA Crude Oil Trading Chart April 8 1247 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

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Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

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Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Futures, Strategy, Signals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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How to Day Trade Crude Oil – Price Range (Low & Highs), Trends / Channels, Reversals, Sizing (Trims, Adds, Stops) and Timing – Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 2 Premium).

Introduction:

This article is part 2 of the previous public post, “How to Know & How We Alerted (In Advance) Crude Oil Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High, Trend (PT 1)“.

I apologize for the detail in these posts, but the reality is that it takes a detailed systematic rules-based process to day trade crude oil.

You want to win in a way that provides the highest probability of win rate and return? It takes skill. Skill requires knowledge and refinement of execution.

We have been developing machine trade software for some time – this has taught us a lot, and I’m not talking about a simple trading bot kind of development.

The process of development had us trading and back testing in every time frame, every structure, every set up, every range, sequence within all, trend, order flow and more.

As we learned we shared much of this information with our clients (yes learning, after 30 years of experience).

You can read a recent client memo that explains the multi-month process we embarked on, where we are at now with development and where we are going in future here, “Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Complete | Rule-Set Strategies, Alerts, Accounts Traded, What’s Next?

The goal now is to simplify the processes (the most probable crude oil trading set-ups) and provide our clients with the most simple, clear, systematic how-to documents, videos, coaching, trading room guidance etc so that traders can duplicate what we are doing to achieve success in day to day trade.

In short, we have coded our machine trade software to trade only that which we know has the highest probability of win rate success and we will endeavor to share this with our community.

We know where we can and where we cannot win, and going forward we will only be trading that which we know with high probability that we will win.

Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its win rate (we are not experimenting going forward, we are done).

Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its return rate and over all success.

We expect this process to take about 90 trading days. After this, we expect to only be doing maintenance to the software.

So how do you duplicate what we learned? See below.

General Requirements of a Successful Oil Day Trader:

Strategy is Mandatory: When you sit down to day trade crude oil futures you need a clear plan.

  • Your trading plan has to be based in reality.
  • Reality is the nature of the instrument you are trading.
  • You can have all the plans you want, but if you do not know the nature of the instrument you are trading, you will lose.

Trading Edge: This article is a study of the nature of crude oil intra-day price action and how to execute trades so that you maintain the highest probability of success – your trading strategy edge.

  • When you acquire a trading edge for a specific instrument of trade then you become profitable. This requires knowing the nature of the instrument better than your competition, refining your process and then executing the process without thinking.
  • This is not unlike a professional tennis, football, hockey or whatever player. Think warrior, think training, think skills.You have to be able to execute – pull the trigger, without thinking. After all, your primary competitors are now machines, more specifically many are AI, and they don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Nature of the Instrument of Trade and Associated Returns: Crude oil embodies one of the most complicated (abstract) natures of trade (structure of instrument) – but also possesses one of the most profitable opportunities for a trader.

  • The structures of trade on various time-frames for crude oil are complicated but at the same time they are not, they are logical, mathematical, geometric and follow a natural order. You just need to know what that order / structure is and what the nature of trade is within each time-frame of structure.
  • Oil trading provides significant return potential because it is so structured (yet complicated for the casual observer or trader). Trade set-ups can be repeated over and over again on each time-frame daily, weekly, monthly and so on.
  • Crude oil can be traded with CL futures contracts, ETN’s on the regular equity markets (leveraged instruments of trade such as DWT and UWT) and with various other FX products and instruments. Most of which provide opportunity for leverage.

Welcome to the World Cup: I often say that if you can trade crude oil successfully, you can trade anything.

  • I am instantly bored day trading equities and swing trading equities, commodities etc now that I’ve been schooled by the best of the best AI’s and traders in crude oil futures. I still day and swing trade equities (always will), but it is like going back to grade school.

Success! So You’re an Expert Oil Trader Now.

  • An expert oil trader knows (with weighted probability) when and where to enter and exit trades (when and where to size in to his/her entries), when and where the trade should be trimmed or see adds, what the likely price trend is to be (on various time-frames), when and where price trend is likely to reverse and how to allow for appropriate variance on stops.
  • In short, an expert oil trade understands when structured timing is or is most likely to be in play for the most predictable trades and what each time-frame will look like (the nature of the structure within each time-frame). Various market timing becomes key.

Oh Wait: Fundamentals are Required.

  • Add to all the above requirements… an expert oil trader also needs a keen understanding of fundamental and geopolitical frame-works.

The Competition: Welcome to the Matrix.

  • The majority of crude oil is now traded by machine (and much of that is now sophisticated AI, and I’m not talking simple bots that you see advertised for retail traders in FX markets).
  • In short, the goal is to know what the machines (that control the most liquidity) are doing, how they trade, what decisions they are executing their trades to, etc.
  • If you know what the machines are doing you can then join the ride. You can be (with high probability) on the right side of the trade.

Master the above requirements and you then have some of the primary skills that make for a successful oil trader.

High Priority Signals / Associated Skills Needed For A Successful Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy:

Below I list in point form the signals you will need to know and then need to execute with precision. It is important to note here that the points below intertwine – in other words, the various points relate to each other symbiotically, they affect each other and become the nature of trade.

For simplicity I numbered them to assist with your study, your focus. You can use this like a check-list before entering a trade or before starting your day. Or, if you lost a trade (your discipline is off) you can review the numbered list below before taking another trade.

The information will provide you clues as to how the machine software is now coded, coded specifically to the highest probability win rate and being tweaked over the next 90 days to increase size and return to point of losing and then will be trimmed back and then idle.

The information below will provide a manual human trader the highest opportunity of success if you focus on the study needed and the repetitive training to then execute trades without thinking (with limited emotion).

The conventional and algorithmic charting required to execute the set-ups explained below are included in our client oil trading bundle (newsletters, alerts, trading room).

# 1 – Range of Trade.

Knowing the trading range is really critical for your trading strategy. Having a plan for the most probable high & low area of trade for the time-frame you are going to trade is paramount. This is accomplished with conventional and algorithmic charting.

This is the range on charting time-frames if you draw a simple horizontal line at top and bottom. Approximately where is the range?

Your positioning bias is then to be short at the top of the range and long at the bottom of the range (with many other considerations that make up your position size, where you trickle out, whether you trade the ebb and flow within the range, your stops and more).

If the over all trend is bullish you won’t size in as much on the short side of the upper range of trade on the time frame you are trading and the opposite is true if the over all trend is bearish.

It may be that you 1. enter your trade at the range limits and don’t touch the trade and exit at the opposite range. Or, 2. you may trickle out size as the trade progresses. Or, 3. you may (expert level here) even trade the ebb and flow of the range.

And then boom! you catch the trend reversal and repeat the process… over and over. Some days many times a day. This is the opportunity for an oil trader that equity traders don’t have available to them.

  • Intra-Day Trading Range. Right Now What is the Trading Range? Where is Trade Likely To Trend Next When it Reverses?
    • What is the playing field today? Knowing where the range of trade is right now on the charting, where it has been recently, where it is likely to be near future. What is the current range of trade? What is the likely trend going forward?
  • Wider Trading Range Time-Frames.
    • Knowing where the trading range is intra-day is important but also know where it has been on a wider time frame is also important to know. This is important because if trade leaves the current range you then know where the next range is likely to be.
    • Why is it important to know the trading range on various time-frames and where the trend is likely to reverse?
      • Support and Resistance. The key support and resistance areas on intra-day and wider trading ranges become key for decisions in the trade range itself – areas for entry, exits, adds, trims, sizing and more.
      • Precise Entry and Exit. Knowing the range of trade is important for high probability trade entries and exits and this can significantly increase your return on each trade (if you can enter and exit with precision).
      • Managing Stops and Sizing. Range of trade is also important for sizing your initial trade entry, trimming your trade size and / or adding to your trade. The idea here is to enter trades at the outside edges of the most probable areas / range of trade, weighing your entry size and stops more so when you are trading the most probable trend of trade and it is also important for knowing when to trickle out / trim positions as the range trade progresses.
  • Using Conventional Charting and Algorithmic Models to Determine Range.
    • Check your conventional charting on various time-frames (1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly) and do not ignore the algorithmic models (these are where the machines will bias sizing).
    • Generally an oil day trader is trading the range of the 1 minute through to 4 hour hour. I most often am using the 1, 5, 15 and 30 minute structured algorithmic models.
    • When you have an understanding of the range frame-work on conventional and algorithmic charting you are now prepared with your range trading bias for the day. You are also ready for the most probable areas of trend reversal.

# 2 Trend of Trade and Channels.

Where are the general trends of trade on various time-frames? Is price trending up or down? This can be difficult to assess when you consider the nature of crude oil – this is why the static range (as above in #1) is so important. Also, are there channels of trade in play on various time-frames?

  • Price Trends. Know What the Current Trend Is.
    • Is there a channel of trade or a range to work with? Are there channel set-ups within various time-frames of charting and times of day or week that tend to repeat?
  • Reversals. Where and when is the trend likely to end / reverse.
    • Key support and resistance areas on various time frames. Here again, range of trade, trend and trading channels.
    • Algorithmic structured time cycles. There are time cycles on each algorithmic model. You need to know these well. The machines are coded to bias trades at these time cycles. This is critical.
    • Time of day or week considerations for various markets in play or events such as EIA and daily settlement for example) and what the likely trend will be next for the continuation of your trading plan.

# 3 – Time of Day.

Time of day is critical. You need to bias your trade size, your expectation of key support and resistance being respected, your expectation of trends finding continuation etc.

  • Early futures trade. Early futures trade is usually sloppy unless there is a geopolitical event. It usually has near zero range. It usually does not respect any of the conventional or algorithmic structures on charting. Use extreme caution.
  • As Global Markets Open. As markets in Asia and Europe etc open then trade starts to get more and more structured. Usually around 3 am Eastern trade become more structured. This can start earlier at around 11:00 PM the night prior but I like to avoid trade until at least 3:00 AM Eastern.
  • The session between 3:00 AM to 7:30 AM (all approximate ranges of time) typically is a session in of itself and a reversal is very possible around 7:30. Quite often if trade has been trending up during this session then the air is slowly let out of the balloon for the hand off that occurs around 8:00 AM for the US day traders.
  • Then around 8:00 AM you will start to see volume increase significantly, especially on the half hour marks leading in to the regular US Market open.
  • At 8:30 AM, 9:00 and 9:30 this is where the trend for the morning session for the regular US market is usually determined.
  • Around 11:00 AM the trend is then consolidated for a further move up in the afternoon session, or sideways range bound trade or a reversal. The opposite of course is true.
  • Prepare for some volatility around settlement at 2:30 PM and around API Tuesday 4:30 and EIA Wednesday at 10:30 AM.
  • Friday afternoons can trend price in a way that is not possible on most days.
  • Many days you will find that late afternoon is a slow melt up, melt down or sideways. Shorting the melt up is foolish.
  • Above are just some examples.

# 4 – Intra Day Time Cycles.

Time cycles have been discussed some above. The basic consideration here is that each algorithmic model (on various time-frames) includes time cycles that are foolish to ignore. The larger the time-frame the more important the time cycle.

  • For example, there is a large time cycle on the weekly model that expired (or peaked) last week. On such a large time cycle a week either way is considered and then trend thereafter becomes weighted heavily in bias of trade.
  • Another example is the 5 minute algorithmic charting model, there are time cycle peaks every 3 hours within a specific structure. These are key to understand for a day trader. Not just where the time cycle peaks are, but the nature of trade around each peak.

The algorithmic reports and the discord member chat room are key for learning how to take advantage of the time cycles.

# 5 – Cut Losses Fast. Using Stop Losses. Sizing.

Crude oil trade is vicious. It can ruin a trader’s confidence fast. It can also destroy a trader’s account.

If you have the rules in place, you know the structure of trade, you are sizing in accordance to your threshold appropriate to your account size then you will be fine. Capital protection is by far one of the most important skills you can acquire.

For my personal account this is critical. This changes somewhat when you know that you can make up the bad trade(s) – you have the skill-set and just have to reset. But until you have the proven experience it is important to protect your capital. This discipline can also be different if you are developing software as in our case (we achieved 63% returns and then lost up to 30% in a month developing the software). But this again is different because (as in our case) when you stop developing and simply deploy software to execute to only trade what is most probable you know it will make up the losses.

But for a human trade executing mechanically (manual trades) the cut losses fast is a critical skill-set. You need to know what trade structure is in play, you need to execute to the outside ranges of that structure and you need to size appropriately. If the structure, the plan goes against you, you then need to close your position fast.

  • Stops should be set in accordance to the time-frame structure in play.
  • Understanding that the machines will hunt stops is critical. This then highlights the necessity to place stops outside that range and consider trading a range of trade with increased sizing as the trade proves itself or size in at inflections of time cycles and increased volume and immediately close if it goes against you.
  • If trading range it is better to consider giving the range room to work itself out. Add to the position as it proves out at the outside of the range and then trickle out / trim your position as it moves through the range.
  • If trading a channel on a day trading time-frame then you should be more static about your entries and exits. More rigid. The channel on lower time frames will typically work or not work. A trading range has much more “give” to the range. The edges of the range are more blurred as the time-frame gets larger and larger.

Real World Trading Examples:

Below are excerpts from Part 1 of this article (in italics) to highlight the points discussed above.

I then also include charting and explanation about how we knew where price would likely bottom on the day and reverse (to provide one example).

Future posts will focus us down on real world examples from the live trading room and we’ll refine each trade set up and trading discipline skill one at a time, over and over again until you are winning at least 80% of your trades and over time you can then increase your trading size and returns.

I will include chart / screen shot (captures) but won’t provide charting links for proprietary algorithmic models in this post, members receive these regularly on email.

Low of Day Price & Reversal Trade Signal / Set Up .

Knowing with high probability where the low or high of day price will likely be is a great skill to have as an oil day trader. It will provide confidence in trade, allow for sizing considerations and so much more. Below is an example from our private oil trading chat discord server, trading room and oil alert feed.

Our traders learn how to set up their strategy, watch for the signals on the charting etc from the newsletter reports, charting updates continually sent out, guidance in the discord chat room, voice broadcast in oil trading room and alerts on the Twitter private feed.

At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

oil, trade, alert Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]

How Did We Know Where Oil Trade Was Likely to Bottom on The Day?

We have structured models on all time frames. In this instance the EPIC Algorithmic Model on the 30 Minute provided the primary structure. Oil trade was trading down after the EIA numbers were released and we simply looked to the bottom of the current trading quad structure. We then cross reference the structure of support with trading models for larger time-frames and lower time-frames and as price nears the target area we look at time frames on smaller and smaller models.

When price action confirms on the 1 minute model, increasing volume is apparent, the order flow is confirmed (machine liquidity is entering from the markets in to the trade) then we start our trade and/or our machine software begins to trade.

Below is the EPIC Oil Algorithm 30 Minute Model. Many areas of structured support were hit and then price ran up approximately 150 ticks for a complete move from the bottom of the quadrant to the top of the trading quad. Perfect set-up.

The orange arrow is where price hit the machine execution line (where the larger liquidity players normally have machines coded to begin large entries), then trade confirmed above the swing trading wider range indicator on the model (the thick gray horizontal line) and then further confirmed at a considerable historical support (purple horizontal line).

low of day, price, reversal, crude, oil

Determining low of day crude oil price for reversal. Algorithm area of support, swing support, historical support.

Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.

Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.

oil trading room, alert, bottom price, trend reversal area Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]

You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.

Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.

improved structure, likely near term low in

oil, trade, alert, price, reversal

Oil trade alert, trading room alert low of day price crude oil reversal trend in play.

Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).

I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.

2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line

Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.

Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.

oil trading room, trade alert, reversal, price target

Screen shot oil trading room trade alert high of day price target timing for reversal for oil trading strategy.

Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.

oil trade alert, trend, price target, time cycle

Image shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted

Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).

Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean

And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.

maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22

trading room, oil trade alert, price targets, reversal, trend

Image from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets.

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.

After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.

this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down

oil trading room, signals, HFT, confirmation of trend, alert

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action.

Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.

Last weeks quad action

This week quad action

oil charts, models, signal, confirmations

Two chart images for crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in model. Confirming signals.

The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.

peaking in to time cycle intra

trend reversal, alert, oil, trading room, charts

The final two trading room images below show that price time cycle reversal oil trade short alerted earlier.

Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Time of Day, Time Cycles, Channels, Trims, Adds, Stop Orders.

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The Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Is Complete.

The information below (in advance of the official white paper) provides a summary of the development process to date, the rule-set (strategies) the code executes oil trades to, what the oil trade alerts will look like on your feed, returns expected on accounts traded and what we have planned in future.

June 13, 2019

As noted above, we have now completed the main structure of the coding for our crude oil trading.

We have previously messaged that we were either close or right at being complete only to find ourselves back down another rabbit hole. This time is actually different, we are done the primary architecture coding, we only have updates (tweaks) remaining. We expect the bulk of that to last at most ninety days.

The software includes eighteen structured algorithmic models (representing time frames from 1 minute charting to weekly), specific high probable trade set-ups, trade sequences within set-ups, order flow analysis, trend (channel) structures on each time-frame and range structures on each time-frame.

The trends (channels) and range trade structures are given the most weight within the decision process of the rule-set. The larger the structure (time-frame) the more weight for sizing and stop loss range. The models, set-ups. sequences and order flow have much less weight in the code.

This (the weights) described above will manifest in trade activity in such a way that trade will become more active and in greater size with the larger the structure. For example, the trending channel from late December 2018 to recent would be a considerable structure within the code and as such the code would size in to that channel at the support and resistance widths of range.

The white paper that we will publish soon will detail the rule-set in such a way that our clients will be able to follow along with the machine trade and understand the protocol that it is executing. This is the first stage for the architecture needed for our trader digital dash board we intend to develop soon.

As the days and weeks go on the software will fire more regularly and will begin to size considerably more than right now because it is coded to weigh decisions within trade trends, structures etc. As the trade set-ups develop the code will fire on them. Obviously the largest structures will be at the end of this start up process. The last few days it has been firing on 1 min, 5, 15 and 30 minute structures.

At first we expect the returns to be approximately .5% per day (if averaged over 30 trading days) increasing to well over 1% per day at most 90 trading days in to the launch. We have tested the code in advance and are confident with this. Depending on our success with “tweaks” the returns could escalate to near 3% per day, we are however more conservative and expect 1%-1.5%.

We are significantly more confident with this version of code simply because we have been down the rabbit hole on every time frame, in every structure, every set up, every order flow sequence on all time cycles competing with the best machines in the world.

We have been there, we went to battle in every arena, we know where we can win and where we cannot. The final version of code will only fire in arenas that we expect 80% + win rate. The larger the structure the larger the return as the software fires through the sequence with the structure.

We tested code on every time frame, in every algorithmic model, every order flow structure and so on and so on. We left no stone unturned.

There are areas of trade in the oil markets (smallest time frames) that are so competitive it would dazzle your mind. The AI’s that are firing in the smallest of time frames are doing so in a way that no trader can imagine. Every time we completed a sequence of trade in the most competitive areas (time-frames) we were schooled in the most advanced AI machine trade the world has to offer. It is manifested in a way no trader would ever expect. Here’s a hint, imagine getting beat every time, in a new way every time and every new way you got beat was a structured, logical, mathematically sound way and the ways seem endless.

Our final crude oil trade code is well outside those areas of competition.

The alerts on the Twitter client feed, in the oil trading room and on the private Discord server will continue to have “M” in the alert if it is a machine driven trade and if I (Curt) am trading I will also identify the alert detail as such. As the days go on the protocol (trade set up) detail will get more and more detailed so that our clients can follow along with clarity.

See also:

Press: SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

What’s next?

The next ninety days is for tweaking the code – refining the execution of sequences within structures of trade.

Then near term we will be looking at the trader’s digital platform and API’s etc and then….

AND THEN…. YES, WE HAVE DECIDED to BUILD SOFTWARE FOR BITCOIN MACHINE TRADE. 

This will obviously lead our developers in to other crypto-currencies also.

Any questions send me an email [email protected].

Thanks

Curt

Oil Trading Academy:

If you would like to learn more about how to trade oil, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: AI, machine trading, trade, software, crude, oil, BTC, Bitcoin, Oil Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Strategy

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A Reliable Method to Determine in Advance Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High Price, Trading Trend and Timing for Your Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 1).

The systematic process below that includes actual time stamped oil trade alerts, live video from our oil trading room and charts from our oil trade chat room is easily identifiable when the right signals of trade are in play on any day that you are trading crude oil.

The method below can be learned and reproduced by any trader that studies the trading set-up and strategy explained.

When a trader knows with high probability the likely range of trade for the day then a trading strategy for daytrading can be put in to place.

If you know the likely high of day, low of day, reversal area, trend of trade for the day and the likely timing of the price target areas / reversals this goes a long way to help you with your day trade strategy for executing trades. You can then execute your trades in accordance to those signals until they are no longer relevant or in play.

Hopefully in sharing what happened today in our oil trading room this will help you with your oil daytrading strategy in future.

Part One of this Article will show you how trade transpired today, what we alerted, the charting as it happened, the models we used to determine the high price of day, low price of day, time cycle peak for price targets, the trend on day and more.

Part Two of this Article will explain how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own daytrading strategy for crude oil trade.

June 16 Update – Part Two of this Article is Now Complete and can be viewed by clicking here.

How to Day Trade Crude Oil Low/High Price, Trend, Reversal, Size, Timing (Pt 2 Premium) | Trading Strategy.

Today was the weekly EIA Report at 10:30 AM. There was a substantial build reported. Below is a copy of a tweet from ZeroHedge.

Crude oil +6.77MM, Exp. -0.5MM
Gasoline +3.21MM
Distillate +4.57MM
Cushing +1.79MM

Prior to the EIA report coming out I was concerned about it and let the trading room know right before it was announced (the live video is in this article). Even though I expected the oil price to collapse I didn’t trade it down because we were in the last part of our final coding of our machine trade – so I was doing double duty (I wanted to get done).

So the report comes out and oil starts to collapse (you can see all this on the video from the oil trading room for those learning about how oil trades and what to watch for).

At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

oil, trade, alert

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.

Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.

oil trading room, alert, bottom price, trend reversal area

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.

Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.

improved structure, likely near term low in

oil, trade, alert, price, reversal

Oil trade alert, trading room alert low of day price crude oil reversal trend in play.

Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).

I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.

2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line

Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.

Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.

oil trading room, trade alert, reversal, price target

Screen shot oil trading room trade alert high of day price target timing for reversal for oil trading strategy.

Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.

oil trade alert, trend, price target, time cycle

Image shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted

Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).

Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean

And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.

maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22

trading room, oil trade alert, price targets, reversal, trend

Image from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets.

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.

After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.

this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down

oil trading room, signals, HFT, confirmation of trend, alert

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action.

Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.

Last weeks quad action

This week quad action

oil charts, models, signal, confirmations

Two chart images for crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in model. Confirming signals.

The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.

peaking in to time cycle intra

trend reversal, alert, oil, trading room, charts

The final two trading room images below show that price time cycle reversal oil trade short alerted earlier.

Next, in Part Two of this article (sent to premium members) I will explain exactly how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own day trading strategy for crude oil trade.

I will explain trade signals such as how to know where the time cycles are, what the expected high of day and low of day is most probable and what the trend on the day should be.

Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

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