Tuesday Dec 6, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition).
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI member edition oil trade report.
NEW: The post below is the public version (it includes some traditional charting) – members propreitary algorithm edition will be delivered to your emal inbox within one hour or see link at bottom of post (if available yet) for member only area that adds to this post which includes the proprietary components of my algorithm; 1. Alpha Algo price / time targets, 2. Alpha Algo trend-lines, 3. Oil Time / Price Cycle Terminations and 4. Intra-Day Trading Algo Quadrants (when available).
NEW: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on TradingView. Links are now emailed to members regularly.
PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned in my last report this week is a big week for me – I am going to go to patent phase. I have six months of proven predictability of over 90%. My process is proprietary and qualifies for patent. The charting for members will become much more involved over the coming weeks (specific to proprietary details). Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADING ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures sometime in Jan 2017. My sub service w incl 24hr crude oil trade room.
PRICING: Monday my proprietary services transitioned from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-ver existing members wll be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.
How My Algorithm Works and Availability:
I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and other mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators weighted. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered only one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.
My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
IMPORTANT NOTE: If you do not invest the time to review at least the last few of my oil reports on this blog, our website (as it applies to my algorithm) and my Twitter feed (which all in will take you at most an hour to catch up and also understand how my algorithm works) this report will be of no good to you. The reports are a running story and just one post won’t do it – there is zero benefit.
Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 51.40 (5:50 AM ET Dec 6, 2016). Some thoughts that may help advance you trading edge;
Currently trading at 51.40 – crude held its current intra trading range. Above 51.90 watch for a break-out (best to let it retest support at 51.75 before going long and best to let it test resistance at 50.44 or even 49.46 “the yellow lines” if it breaks down below that before going short). You can use your indicators below (on the charting) for intra snipes.
Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:
Your primary pivot areas for swing trading crude are at the multi week low around 42.46 (bottom yellow line – be careful with misreading the white numbers on side of chart in purple they don’t represent price at that level) and the top side of your mutli week trading range is around 51.90. Shorting below 51.90 considering crude oil recent rally does not represent good probability. Long at the bottom of the range represents excellent probability.
And then you have a diagonal up-trending wedge you can follow also swings – your probability of success goes way up taking long positions at bottom of this wedge (intra-day at 46.34 and rising refer to yesterdays chart) and short positions at top of wedge (however, depending on your time-frame considering oil is in a rally a short may not be the best play here). You as a trader have to determine your time-frame and trade accordingly.
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Diagonal Trend-Line breach and next support (blue). Crude algo intra work sheet 609 AM Dec 5 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
Crude oil has reacted negatively to the 200 MA on the 1 HR in recent month trading. As long as it is above the 200 MA we consider it one of many bullish indicators.
It is currently trading just above it!!! Caution. Lost 200 MA for a while yesterday at 2 PM and regained it when price hit lower diagonal trend line. Barely above it now.
See chart in yesterday’s member post.
The fib level is important above 51.75 because that puts the trading price in to possible break-out territory. Your full extension above there is 55.99 on the fib. A break down of 50.44 and you would want to see if the next at 49.12 holds and so – on. In a break down you want to wait for next Fib level to hold and if triggering a long trade wait for price – trigger – power – trade. In other words, wait for a re-test of the support or if it doesn’t retest wait for the price to prove itself by being higher than the most recent high on the 1 min, 3 min, 5 min etc intra trading. If you do not know how to trigger trades based on price – trigger – power – trade disciplines it is best to research online or sign up here or somewhere for some private coaching. This discipline with intra-day trading is critical.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple).
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come of previous time / price cycles). Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Looking at this chart from a wider perspective…. it is important to understand that crude is not a long until those upper range resistance lines are broken (yellow lines diagonal and horizontal on the chart) and is not in a downtrend until the lower yellow support lines are broken. Until then you are trading in the range. The machines are respecting the lines and the alpha algo targets are in play. So trade the range – take longs at the bottom of the range and shorts at the top of the range (however, undertand that short positions are not as probable because the overall trend mid cycle is up). There is an alpha algo line (orange arrow) that extends almost straight up (parabolic) above resistance that should there be another price break-out that would be your alpha price trendline to follow. Notice how the current price is following the current alpha algo line that was calculated early in this time / price cycle.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
There are no new time / price cycles in play since the last post. However, this can change at any time and we will notify you of this if it occurs.
There is (I should mention) a small one terminating right now – but it is calculated as a 1 in 5 (so very low probability).
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines:
The current price action is proving that the current algo line is alpha – you will find price will return to this line regularly – if it vacates the line (red dotted ones) then look to next nearest line to become alpha and consider that where price is most lkely to trade near. Again, if this changes we will alert you. See your chart above for the current lines.
Current Alpha Algo Targets:
The highest probability target you have for Dec 6 at 51.34 IS IN PLAY!
From last member post:
All current targets are soft targets. In other words, when the price of crude changes trading ranges it takes time for the algorithm to calculate new targets. Early on in the price and time cycle you will find the probabilities much less and as time goes on in the time / price cycle the algorithm will give you much higher probabilities of targets being hit. There are usually a number of targets published and each is given a probability of a hit (how many times out of 100). You can use these targets to trade against and determine your risk -reward accordingly. Here again I recommend you review my Twitter feed, my story and my recent blog posts to see how I publish targets along with probabilities (more information below on algo targets).
Below are this weeks targets. They are extremely soft because the new alpha algo targets are in early progression in this new time / price cycle. Use extreme caution until the targets become more clear – Updates will follow as this time cycle progresses.
Dec 6 4:30 PM – 48.30 (17%), 51.34 (24%), 52.38 (15%)
Dec 7 10:30 AM – 48.34 (16%), 51.57 (22%), 52.86 (12%)
Dec 9 1:00 PM – 48.87 (14%), 52.30 (19%), 53.47 (8%)
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
We are waiting for the completion of Tues 4:30 Wed 10:30 at minimum before publishing these – they become locked in at certain points in time / price cycle – we expect after 10:30 AM Wed we will have them locked in to this time / price cycle so they are predictable for your intra day sniping (if you do that).
As I explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo algo and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and why they move from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading oil.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance and price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room and reviewing my Twitter feed posts and previous blogs will help you with how to use these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on You Tube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.
See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money. We also recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a revamp (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at email@example.com – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically.
I suppose also when the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
— EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm (@EPICtheAlgo) November 16, 2016
Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets, Member Edition