Wednesday Dec 7, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition).
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.
NEW: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within about ten days of original publication so folks that are considering subscriptions can evaluate my value.
NEW: Institutional platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.
NEW: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.
PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned in my last report this week is a big week for me – I am going to go to patent phase. I have six months of proven predictability of over 90%. My process is proprietary and qualifies for patent. The charting for members will become much more involved over the coming weeks (specific to proprietary details). Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADING ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures sometime in Jan 2017. My sub service w incl 24hr crude oil trade room.
PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-ver existing members wll be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.
How My Algorithm Works and Availability:
I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered only one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.
My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
IMPORTANT NOTE: If you do not invest the time to review at least the last few of my oil reports on this blog, our website pages (as it applies to my algorithm) and my Twitter feed (which all-in will take you at most an hour to catch up and also understand how my algorithm works) this report will be of no good to you. The reports are a running story and just one post won’t do it – there is zero benefit.
Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 50.67 (126 AM ET Dec 7, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge (advance algorithmic modeling in member edition);
Currently trading at 50.67 – crude held its current intra trading range.
Above 51.90 watch for a break-out (best to let it retest support at 51.75 before going long and best to let it test resistance at 50.44 or even 49.46 “the yellow lines” if it breaks down below that before going short). You can use your indicators below (on the charting) for intra snipes.
Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:
Your primary pivot areas for swing trading crude are at the multi week low around 42.46 (bottom yellow line – be careful with misreading the white numbers on side of chart in purple they don’t represent price at that level) and the top side of your mutli week trading range is around 51.90. Shorting below 51.90 considering crude oil recent rally does not represent good probability. Long at the bottom of the range represents excellent probability.
Trade the outside range for highest probability. Crude algo intra work sheet 154 AM Dec 7 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
You can see how the price action in this chart is affected by the trend lines (algorithmic charting has considerable more detail for advance preparation – the trader’s edge is increased knowig where they are in advance and in relation to upcoming alpha algo targets and alpha algo trend-lines).
Diagonal Trend Lines, Crude Oil, Trading, Chart
Price Action With 20, 50, 100, 200 MA
How crude price reacts to 20 50 100 200 MA on 3 min.
Crude oil, chart, MA, 20, 50, 100, 200 MA
The fib level is important above 51.75 because that puts the trading price in to possible break-out territory. Your full extension above there is 55.99 on the fib. A break down of 50.44 and you would want to see if the next at 49.12 holds and so – on. In a break down you want to wait for next Fib level to hold and if triggering a long trade wait for price – trigger – power – trade. In other words, wait for a re-test of the support or if it doesn’t retest wait for the price to prove itself by being higher than the most recent high on the 1 min, 3 min, 5 min etc intra trading. If you do not know how to trigger trades based on price – trigger – power – trade disciplines it is best to research online or sign up here or somewhere for some private coaching. This discipline with intra-day trading is critical.
Crude Oil, Fibonacci, Trading, Chart
Intra fibonacci levels to watch. Crude algo intra work sheet 217 AM Dec 7 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple).
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Respect support and resistance lines. Crude algo intra work sheet 325 AM Dec 7 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political mess it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops. See yellow arrows on chart.
Crude oil is still bullish – don’t listen to the noise – this is a consolidation period in the upward trend against resistance. If this changes I will let you know. In the meantime trade the range or snipe knowing your lines and targets.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
In the time / price cycle component of the algorithm there are a number of indicators and clusters that I will explain over time. However, for now I will show you one immediately important indicator as it applies to significant indicators intra day to keep it simple for your trades. Thhe first white triangle and green arrow shows what happened when price was moving through to terminate at the end of that triangle (which is up against resistance and above an algo line). When price does that you have to watch close because if it fails it will fall as it did. There is another one (the second white triangle) that price may test. Watch this close as it potenially pinches. So in short, when price loses a diagonal trendline (blue), an algo line (red dotted) or the pinch in the triangle between resistance and an algo line you have to be careful because if price loses to the downside it then goes to the next algo line or diagonal trendline for support. So when shorting you know where it will typically find support (if it is going to find support intra day).
Do not forget to refer to the previous time / price cycles I listed on the last post (however, they are not as important as the one shown here).
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines:
So there is a new algo line calculated on the chart above – it is where the orange arrow is – this makes targets more complicated – which is typical when the geo political thing is messing with the natural state of trade… nonetheless at least you know where this algo line is. To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
I can report that the price action since Nov 30 break-out has been respecting the alpha algo trend-lines calculated and published over a week ago with precision.
Current Alpha Algo Targets:
I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Tuesday December 6 at 16:30 came within a few cents of price action for that time / price cycle. Very tradeable call.
So what is your most probable algo target for 10:30 AM time / price target zone and for Friday at 1:00 PM EST? Your closest target is always the most probable. Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so.
So as the price action is (above chart) intra day it is almost perfectly between two targets. Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
When Wednesday target is completed this and maybe Friday – but for sure Wednesday we will publish theses and work with you in the trading room on how to trade these for your intra day snipes.
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you undersatnd the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.
See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at email@example.com – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
— EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm (@EPICtheAlgo) November 16, 2016
Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets