Category Archives: Lead Trader Blog Post

Forward:

Although I endeavor to personally reach out to every tweet, email, DM and more, the mail I receive being connected with going on tens of thousands of folks in our online trading community with all the different forms of social media and our the recent success of our trading services launch is challenging me. And, I’m in our trading room eight hours a day and in our algorithmic chart modeling lab through the night:) Time – there isn’t enough time to speak to everyone in the most timely fashion so I needed to find a way to answer everyone’s questions in the most efficient and personalized manner possible. 

So I decided to do three things to address this; first I have put off further media interviews until our staffing is built up to handle the growth (I did a recent morning show on Benzinga you can find here but doing those programs causes an influx of subscribers – not that that is bad, it is just that we need to manage the upswing properly), and two, I am going to write one article per week (per below) that covers most of the question topics I’ve received the previous week and, three I am going to do weekly webinars that explain how to use our algorithmic charting, swing trade service and trade room to both members and the general public asking questions.

You can find our most recent memo to members about the weekly webinars here of which a schedule will be announced soon (we will do a webinar for each algorithm charting, swing trading and trading room weekly). Below is my first weekly blog article that will answer many questions I receive daily.

Thank you for the continued positive mojo and support in our work everyone!

The Only Stock Trading Indicator Returning 100% or More a Year Consistently. Guaranteed, And I Have Proof.

Fancy that! I have proof. Yup, but it will take a bit of time to explain, do your best to bear with me. But first lets be sure only those that should be reading this actually are…

If you are not in search of the most predictable method of return available as a trader/ investor then do not continue, it will be a horrid waste of your time.

If you are in the camp that believes there is no special “edge” available in today’s world for traders or investors then do not continue. I don’t have time to argue with you or time to convince anyone.

I am a thirty-two year entrepreneur that has a group of family businesses, an inventor, an innovator, a father, a husband, I am owned by a bulldog, that needs desperately to find a healthy balance (it is 4 am and I am writing this) and the list literally goes on – so I know life is short and I don’t need to waste anyone’s time. Every second is precious.

But I can guarantee with-out a doubt if you continue, you will discover there is no other indicator in the stock market that achieves a higher return. None – it is not possible.

At least not possible yet (what comes after this period of time in stock market history is actually scary and I’m not going there in this article).

Oh, and by the way, this article is titled Chapter 1 because this subject matter is huge (don’t fear – I promise to cover the meat of the point in this post though so you don’t have to read a book to get it). But I titled it Chapter 1 symbolically because I am going to write a series of articles (that get more in depth) and then consolidate all my banter, reflections and rants on the subject in to a book.

Yup, I am actually going to write a book. Why? First because this subject matter is not shared with the general public, and second because it is in depth and folks need to know how to use this information properly (we have members that need to know and so on).

So yes, the elite in my discipline (specifically in my specialized area of algorithmic modeling – “black box”), hold this close to their chest and I’m just the kind of guy that thinks it should be shared:) I have always have been that way, I always will be that way.

Who Should Take the Time to Investigate This Outrageous Claim?

This is for members of our stock charting newsletters, swing trading newsletters, coaching students and members of our trade room. It is also for anyone in the general public that has interest.

More specifically, this is for anyone earnestly searching for a disciplined way to consistently achieve a fantastic return on their investment, without significant risk.

But you have got to want that. Everyone I talk to say they trade or invest for the purpose of profit, but many aren’t honest with themselves – there are many reasons people are involved with trading.

What I am going to share with you is boring (it is scientific in nature but I will keep it as simple to digest as possible), it is not sexy, and it requires you to lose a part of yourself – the “I” part.

There is no other way, you cannot “see” it, you can’t embrace and use it and you certainly can’t be disciplined enough to open the “black box” if you can’t lose the “I” in trading.

So lets confirm and get on with it!

1. Are you here in search of the highest possible attainable and consistent profit as a trader? And,

2. Are you ready to lose the number one reason keeping you from attaining the highest possible return available in the stock market? Specifically here I am referring to the fact that you must be ready to lose the “I” in your trading and investing – put another way, you must be ready to lose your “ego”. And trust me, I am an expert on the topic.

If you are thinking, “sure I’ll consider that”, then continue reading. If not, click that little x at the top right corner of your screen.

Lets get to the point then and not waste your time. What is it?

Okay, so I’ll just tell you right from the get-go exactly what I am talking about, then folks that wish to discount it can get on with their day and/or they can file me in the “nutbar” category.

Here is the answer:

Probability is the only stock market indicator that matters anymore. That’s it? That’s your big secret? It’s just that simple is it? 100% or more per year?

Yes, emphatically the answer is YES. The only stock market indicators that matter anymore are probabilities. “It” is really a “they” and not an “it” – they are plural. “They” – the probabilities, are the only stock market indicators that “matter” – IF YOU ARE TRADING OR INVESTING FOR CONSISTENT PROFIT.

In my observation it is so simple that most miss it. But really, truth be told, the primary reason we miss this is our “ego”.

Having to be right about a stock or the market blinds us and this cannot be used successfully without humility. Omg really? Yes, sorry, you have to find humility or you will fail – also guaranteed.

And the last primary reason many investors and traders miss this is to be good at executing trades in the discipline of “probabilities”, which at its core is a very specialized area of algorithmic chart modeling discipline that we refer to as the “black box”, is because it is very scientific and it requires massive resources to compile hoards of historical data.

It is a massive undertaking. And that is why many traders can’t see it, use it, embrace it, or even know that there is a method of trading and investing that can easily return over 100% per year.

Even many large hedge funds do not have a “black box”, have you noticed the recent crash of many funds? More importantly, have you noticed the select few “funds” achieving returns never before witnessed in history? How is that possible? Have you noticed the Fed try and limit commodity algorithmic trading? I know how and why and I will explain.

Ask yourself, do you invest / trade for some reason other than consistent high profit?

What? I thought we’re all here for the profit!

No, actually you are not all here for profit. If you are trading for any other reason than returning a consistent, predictable and unusually high rate of return, then this article is not for you.

Those that are not trading for profit should leave now. And yes, I know I already covered this point above, but it’s so important (the most important part of this actually) that I thought I best be really clear and repeat myself.

I get it we’re all different, and for some the stock market and investing your hard earned money is more about other things It may be your joy of researching companies, the rush of those fantastic momentum penny stocks, maye you just enjoy charting and plotting, you could be a degenerate gambler or maybe you are one of the romantics and you are simply in love with the story (think Tesla). In my case (which is a common condition), you may just have to be “right” about the market and what it is going to do next (have you noticed anyone like that on Wall Street?).

If any of the above reasons are the primary “why” in your trading or investing, then “probabilities” are not the only indicators that matter anymore. But at my age, and where I am at in life, return on investment is paramount.

Still here?

Then YOU my friend are trading for a consistent profit and YOU are searching for an ROI that cannot be beat. If this is the case, then I can assure you once again without a doubt, with one million percent guaranteed certainty, that “probabilities” stand alone in a class with no other – they exist in a totally different solar system.

In fact, probabilities return a profit no other method of trading or investing can return. Not even close.

Okay, you got me this far, start laying out some proof and clarity because I’m busy here.

Sure, lets do that.

The Proof – Lets Start With My Personal Experience

Here’s how this all started. As I stated I am an entrepreneur of thirty two years and an investor. I have invested my whole life. We have family businesses, the ones that most apply here are web development and a company that provides services to the oil industry. Why is this important? I trade oil related securities for example and I have a business that services the oil industry and I have a company that that employs software engineers.

In short, I noticed (that our software engineers confirmed) that trading in most commodities and currencies seemed to be somewhat predictable, and then I looked at many of the larger company stocks. The more I looked and the more I involved our software engineers in the process the clearer it became that the world stock markets have changed, and they have changed dramatically. Yes the machines are in the markets.

Recently I was watching CNBC and Cramer was telling folks not to trade (to invest only) because it was not possible to beat the machines – well he’s partially, or mostly right. He’s a tad ahead of the curve there, but he’s got the right idea.

The machines are in it, and if you are investing or trading you should be equipped to deal with that and more preferably take advantage of that.

So to get back to my short story about how I this started, we started to investigate. Now, appreciate that our digital enterprise / software engineering side of my background allows for me to investigate things in a way perhaps most wouldn’t be able to accomplish. In short, we confirmed that not only are the machines in it, but specifically in that category there are entities that conquer and there are entities that like to think they do. Like with anything else, few are the cream.

What is undeniable however, is that the trading groups that possess a “block box” that works are achieving returns never seen in history (algorithmic modeling) – they are literally “cracking Wall Street” see Ted Talk video here, and those groups (or hedge funds) that do not possess a formidable “black box” have been hitting the wall at an alarming pace.

I wrote an article recently attempting to explain in short our algorithmic stock chart modeling process you can find here.

So to keep this really short and get right to the point, we started building algorithmic models in mid 2016 for the stock market.

And how have the results been? Well, the truth is the majority of the models are running model test trading accounts that are seeing returns 100% – 1000% per annum (at current rate). Very consistently they are achieving very predictable trades.

We have shared some of the work we are involved in online and to our trading room and various newsletter subscribers to be sure there is an evidenced trail of disclosure so our work cannot be called in to disrepute.

And here’s what is really important, unlike many of the run of the mill type trading rooms that make all kinds of calls and simply publish or brag about the ones that come true (and I’m not knocking them, I’m just pointing out that we are operating in a different world) – we publish everything (specific to the equities we have made public – there are more we are working with of course in the lab). But my point is we are extremely transparent in our approach. So we don’t make endless calls about this stock is going to zoom high or whatever, but the calls we do make we have a near 100% success rate and our algorithmic chart modeling tests for the most part near 90% correct. So to be more specific, an everyday trader can use our work with various equities, indices, commodities and currencies to achieve a win rate of up to 93% (depending on the model).

Just a snippet of some highlights since we started building algorithmic models for the stock market – all publicly called in advance and published;

• We called the Trump win many months in advance (algorithm in development).
• We called Brexit many weeks in advance (algorithm in development).
• We predicted all time market highs would occur post election after Trump win months in advance (algorithm in development).
• Our Gold algorithm (Rosie the Gold Algo) called the most recent bottom in Gold almost to the cent months in advance when not a sole on the internet or in the media was bearish and everyone was bullish. It’s one thing to say its going to go down, its another thing to give an exact penny months in advance. I myself didn’t believe it and missed the turn but many of our subscribers have made considerable profit from this and more examples.
• Our Silver algorithm (SuperNova Silver) called the bottom much like with Gold with price, weeks in advance.
• Our Oil algorithm (EPIC the Oil Algo) which is our inaugural algorithmic charting model last summer called the turn in oil to the penny and oil hasn’t stopped its rally since. Epic to this day calls for our members every Sunday the price targets for oil for three exact times every week and is hitting 91.1% accuracy.
• Our US Dollar algorithm called the break out in the US Dollar and our other two algorithms we are more recently working with being $SPY and $VIX are too early in development to predict.
• And finally our Swing Newsletter as had astronomical success and returns – out of this world.

And those are a small snippet of the success behind the development of the algorithms.

In a post soon I will compile all the letters of thanks from all our members and people in the social media and internet community that continue to thank us many times a day for the success they are experiencing. And I know why, because once a trader finds a predictable methodology to work with it is very freeing. It provides hope of a better way and a better future. I get that and I hold that with great respect.

So how does this help the everyday trader or investor?

Well I kind of discussed this quick in the last section there, but I will quickly comment on what I think are a few important points for folks that are searching for a way to win in these markets.

First of all, these are not high frequency algos or automated bot algos. We are data mining historical data on specific charts going back sixty months establishing which classic indicators provide the highest probability of success and then representing those results on a classic chart for traders to utilize their trading.

Let me give you some examples of the work we are doing with specific securities, commodities and currency….

Epic the Oil Algorithm is an example. If you look at an Epic Oil Algo chart you will notice there are targets for specific times on specific days. This is one way that we represent our findings. These specific targets hit in over 90% of instances – specific time of day, day of week, specific price! With Gold and Silver we have posted the algorithmic trading quadrants, important algorithm levels and called the turns in trend weeks or months in advance. These are just some of the ways we represent our findings on the charting we provide members.

Here is an example of an Epic the Algo chart:

Crude algo intra work sheet 537 AM Feb 3 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT

With the US Dollar $DXY we are releasing all the algorithm charting details before markets open on Monday Feb 6, 2017 and the other two we are working with are the $VIX and $SPY, which are admittedly in their early stages. And we are working on many more for release in 2017.

So the indicators we are providing members are used in a similar fashion and way they are used to using indicators such as VWAP, MACD, moving averages and many more.

Our swing trading has been one of the better successes.

To date our we are publishing swing recommendations for our members of ten to twenty securities from penny stocks to companies such as Amazon and Google. Here again, there is a significant upgrade to the charting information scheduled for Feb 6, 2017 in premarket to our members. But all in all this has been exceptionally successful – the algorithmic modeling for individual securities representing companies has been beyond our expectation.

The other way we can assist the average trader or investor is in our daily trading room. We run live broadcast explaining our algorithmic model charting and step by step we visually walk through the charting live. So it is a very intimate experience for our members.

My best advice is to visit our blog and review the newsletters our members receive in the morning, more specifically take a look at Epic the Oil Algo, this will give you the best idea of what the charting looks like. Or visit the feeds of our algos and click on any of the posts.

The algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

We are working on six publicly right now and all six are going through a major upgrade over the next week – we are really upping their game.

Here is an excerpt from the most recent memo we sent our members, it is a list of indicators we endeavor to provide our members for trading;

• Algorithmic Chart Models Completing. This weekend we will be completing the last of what we consider Phase I of our algorithmic models. Phase I is defined as completing algorithmic chart models (for our traders to use on a traditional stock chart as an edge) to include all the important applicable levels for both classic charting and algorithmic chart modeling such as;
  • Classic indicator charting;
    • Fibonacci levels,
    • Horizontal trend-lines (support and resistance from various time cycles),
    • Diagonal trend-lines (support and resistance from various time cycles),
    • Swing trading range (margins of highest probability),
    • Various other classic indicators such as moving averages, MACD and more as applicable and most important to the specific equity charting.
  • Algorithmic chart modeling;
    • Alpha algo targets (specific time and price – see EPIC the Oil Algo for examples),
    • Alpha algo diagonal trend-lines (support and resistance),
    • Algo diagonal trend-lines based on Fibonacci modeling,
    • Algorithm time/price cycles (terminations),
    • Algorithm trading quadrants (related to time/price cycles and historical trading),
    • And more (all those fun indicators we are processing historical data on and representing on charts for our traders to use as an edge).

Our issue isn’t that we have successful models, our issues are how to take all that data in a timely way as an upstart and deliver that to our members. And we are working on four times as many models for currency, commodities and equities than we show publicly – so there is a lot going on to say the least.

There are lots of successful trading rooms and services – what makes this different?

Sure, there are many, many ways to win in the market – literally hundreds. But there are very few trading platforms, charting services or hedge funds that come close to not only the ROI or algorithmic modeling but more importantly the consistency.

The machines in the marketplace and the successful trading groups (they are not all successful) that are running black box algorithmic models are achieving astronomically greater success than market participants ever have.

Look, you can sign up for the guy that nails morning momo stocks, the guy that trades low floaters and sells twenty minutes to a day later, sign on to many fantastic charting services, or even those that can tell what is likely to affect an equity given the stars.

I get it, I know about most and have looked at them in great detail. In fact, I personally know many of them. But those are outliers in most instances and if not they are classic services.

The world of markets is changing, and they are changing fast. The algorithmic modeling trading groups are beating the outliers and the classic charting services many times over. And there is a reason, the machines are in the game and they are driving the market. Those that understand this and position themselves in such a way to profit from it achieve returns the others simply cannot. It isn’t possible anymore to compete with it and it will become increasingly more difficult.

Think of it this way, when a trader is using MACD or VWAP, a moving average, that is fine, but why not use the best of the classic indicators (that have proven to best perform with that specific equity, currency or commodity) at any given time. And even better yet, if the algorithmic model can provide a future forward indicator (such as with EPIC’s time and price targets each week) then even better yet!

It’s this simple, successful algorithmic modeling takes the best of the best indicators, mines their historical data, gives each a different weight in accordance to their historical success and serves that up to either an automated method or to a trader to then make his or her own decisions.

The algorithmic models that do not do this fail. The ones that do this succeed. The question then becomes why would some larger trading groups, banks or hedge funds not follow the successful route and implement a model that fails? For the same reason a trader won’t – ego.

Not only is it not possible to achieve the results the best black box trading groups are achieving (with-out using their methods), it will get progressively more and more difficult (sure, there will still be those niche GURU outliers – there always will be, but what advantage does that provide the individual investor or trader?)

It has changed manifold over the last eighteen months and the next eighteen months will separate the haves and have nots in the market and at that point this will be so obvious everyone in the market will finally talk about around the dinner table (so to speak). Again, just look to how the Fed wants to restrict the black box trading groups in commodities – they say it is due to risk, but that isn’t the reason. And how are they ever going to do that?

Let me give you one more quick example, have you seen in recent news the four professional poker players that are trying to beat the algorithm in a tournament? Read this article about how an algorithm recently brutally beat four professional players and tell me humans can beat algorithmic modeling.

“People are worried that my work here has killed poker: I hope it has done the exact opposite”
—Tuomas Sandholm, Carnegie Mellon University

And finally, don’t believe those silly commentators that say all algorithmic modeling is doomed to blow up. That is simply poppy cock driven via fear, ego or ignorance. High frequency is high frequency, meaning they can shut a trade down faster than you and I can think. And if it isn’t high frequency (as with our work) and the trader is making the final decision, well then you get the point. It doesn’t take a lot of research to find out there are firms blowing away results that have ever been thought of as possible.

Here’s an article to give you an idea of what is really going on out there, and trust me, what you are able to find in your research is only the scraping residue of the scraps of what is really happening.

The fabled fund, known for its intense secrecy, has produced about $55 billion in profit over the last 28 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it about $10 billion more profitable than funds run by billionaires Ray Dalio and George Soros. What’s more, it did so in a shorter time and with fewer assets under management. The fund almost never loses money. Its biggest drawdown in one five-year period was half a percent.

Well that seems like a good start to my book. Thanks for taking time out of your life to be a part of our story!

If there is anything I can do to help you in your success please let me know!

In upcoming weekly articles I am going to cover “The Death of the Stock Trader” and “How to Use our Algorithmic Chart Modeling at Home” and be sure to catch our upcoming – yet to be announced informational webinars next weekend! We will be covering how to use all of our algorithmic charts at home, our swing trading and how algorithms have supercharged our member success and how to use our charting in our trading room.

Best of success!

Curtis