28
Jun 2020

Schedule Change: Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY Session June 28 

Lead Trader Blog Post Curt Melonopoly

Schedule Change: Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY Session June 28, 2020

Evening traders,

Tonight’s Swing $STUDY Webinar will not run as normal, I am going to use the time to update all the charting and alarms for trading signals to be ready for what I think will possibly be a significant week of trade entries.

I see either this week or next being VERY CRITICAL. So I want to be ready.

So I’m going to update all the charts and alarms and send a series of swing trade reports out through the night for our swing trading members.

Also, we have a large oil trade in progress with EPIC V3.1.1 and I want to be available to our techs as needed through the night.

 

Thanks

 

Curt

31
May 2020

Service Platform Updates: New Trading Week, Lot More New Coming. Current Trades, Alerts, Sunday Webinar, Trader’s Conference, Trading Room, New Location etc

Lead Trader Blog Post Curt Melonopoly

Good afternoon traders,

Hope you had a great weekend.

I spent the majority of the weekend in Study and getting settled in our new location.

The US riots, the virus, the sell off then snap back and now time cycle inflection are big for traders, we’ve done well but it does require significant study to continue in it.

The new location (as has been with others recent) is a reaction to the virus lock down. Since the lock down we have been negotiating with folks and working with various people that provide infrastructure and as opportunities have led us closer and closer to the best possible location on the island I have moved. Anyway, after 4 moves we’re finally at the final goal destination.

So this week is an inflection week, a big week for us in many ways.

Settling in to a semi-permanent location will be good and will allow us to focus on bringing to conclusion many things we are working on.

Being a start up (yes 5 years in we are still a start up haha) that is boot strapped grass roots style I’ve done my best to keep you in the loop, we get many questions through-out each week so I try to summarize Q and A in these updates. Thank you again for your support and patience.

The location moves on each occasion require a tonne of work (primarily infrastructure to operate) so I appreciate your supporting us. If we weren’t in the kind of development we are in we could just have been in any location, but there are many reasons why we are not in western society for the development and many reasons while we are over seas that our location is critical. That is a long story, but that is the bottom line.

So we’re managing a massive development initiative with a small team in locations that require a lot of negotiation and infrastructure type work and patience.

Anyway, now that we are in our ultimate location that has everything we need, here is what our inflection week will bring (and I know I’ve been promising some of these things and this is the week they’ll roll out). Bottom line is that this week is WIP clean up and below are some of the things we are cleaning up on our work in progress:

  • The new location will not be set up perfectly for about a week, we have internet (high speed) but we will experience about or up to 8 restarts of our software and or trading room a day until the final fiber line is run to our location (it is being run from about 2 miles away and they’re working on it now). When complete we will have that fiber line and satellite and cellular back up. Right now we have all that but it is not done the way we need. The back up generators here are world class and security is top notch as are the amenities for the upcoming trader’s conference.So until the final install you can expect interim outages in the live trading room and this will also affect the Sunday Swing $STUDY sessions. Anytime it goes down we’ll simply reboot and restart, it can be up to 5 minutes on each occasion. 
  • There is an announcement on deck as I’ve noted previous (next in the queue) about EPIC software. It is next and will be within 24 hours – new white paper. Bottom line is we have completed the software and the real world test will start, it will be very public along with mainstream articles etc. More on that soon. And I know I’ve said it recently a few times, but you can expect very active EPIC oil trading alerts going forward. This is a big deal because it will basically be EPIC’s world premier and the live trading results will be very public going forward. The next is the trader’s platform that is now in play with our team and hopefully complete before end of year. Again, more on this in formal announcement on deck.
  • I am personally in an oil trade that I am a tad underwater on and tonight I will be sharing charting as trade sets up for the week describing my trading plan as it unfolds. Fortunately my size is right and I do have a plan, I’ve shared a lot on this trade so I’m sure you know were I’m going with it.
  • My oil trade is a time cycle inflection trade that I’ve discussed in some detail here (market inflections) and this and other articles Protected: TIME CYCLE INFLECTION: How to Swing Trade It. Volatility, $VIX, $VXX, $OVX, SP500, $SPY, Bitcoin, $BTC, Oil, $CL_F, $USO, Gold, $GLD, Silver, $SLV, US Dollar, $DXY and on recent Swing Trade $STUDY Webinar videos.
  • The profit and loss statements will be out this week, again, my apologies but they do require significant hands on personal time to reconcile considering all of our different accounts.Bottom line is we’re doing better and better all the time with our swing trading newsletter and swing trade alert platform, our returns are parabolic at this point (I don’t think we’ll ever see less than 400% per year ever again) primarily because of a proven process that allows us to really harvest ROI on the winners and on the laggards we’re small in size so they’re not weighing us too heavy at all. As rotation happens we trim our trees for profit. The process works well. There is a sizing and trade positioning article here that I will be continuing in with other parts of the article in near future. Also in development is the coding of 200 equities from our swing trade platform to machine trading along with SPY, VIX, GOLD, SILVER, BTC and US DOLLAR. This is also scheduled for completion late 2020 but realistically not totally complete for 2 years. 
  • The day trade alerts platform on private twitter alert feed is re-launching as noted previous and I would expect within 2 weeks it will be in full flight. I’m slowly bringing swing structured models down to a day trade time frame, but the market has to come to us on it, when we get the extreme highs or low inflections this is where you’ll see it light right up. Currently we aren’t re billing any subs as the platform is in start up, so the time period is essentially free for anyone currently subscribed. Billing will start when we’re settled in and running smooth. Bottom line with the day trade alerts feed is that early in our 5 year journey I spent 2 years day trading live and we did exceptionally well so I brought the program back to garner more ROI now that our swing trade platform has been built out.
  • The shout outs many of you have provided us recently really help our team stay motivated, thank you for doing that. I manage a small 4 person team and they are young, it really lifts their spirits. They’re managing a massive work load and sometimes they need the boost, so thank you. And truth be told, with the soon to be released main stream media articles on deck, your shout outs will really help us there because many of our competitors will be trying to knock us in the public eye, this is par for the course and expected.
  • The weekly Swing Trade $STUDY videos will be out Sunday night and may not include a formal written report this week, so don’t rely on the actual report. Last week we did a significant video and written reporting session that we sent out in about 6 parts of written reports so those charts and set ups are likely still in play as is, the videos from the study session webinar tonight will likely be more focused on how to manage those set ups (and some new) in light of the time cycle inflection and how to trade the inflection properly. 

 

  • And finally when we get settled in here over the next week I am going to personally take 90 days to focus on writing two articles per day (short) with videos to explain what I’ve learned in oil trading, swing trading and daytrading to summarize my journey. I’ve been meaning to do this for some time but without the ideal location to focus in this has been difficult until now. So now the opportunity has presented and I will be taking advantage of that. I have documented much of it in articles and on our Compound Trading Group YouTube Trading Video Channel but mostly with raw trading room video feed coverage so it is cumbersome and not easy for traders to digest in 10 minute bite sizes or less. So that’s the goal, about 150 articles with videos that traders can consume in 10 minutes or less for each trade set up learning.   

Anything else I can do please let me know!

Thanks

Curt

29
May 2020

It’s Hard to Be Patient, But Here’s How It Generally Works – A Quick Note About Time Cycles and Trading Process

Lead Trader Blog Post Curt Melonopoly

Hello traders,

A quick note for newer traders and a good reminder for even the more experienced.

The markets have an ebb and flow (time cycles) and successful traders have trading processes that provide their edge.

When markets are at an inflection (picture the water on the beach coming in and out), the inflection is when the water is turning. Now, picture an aggressive ocean, the foam on the beach etc… this is the markets. Different ebbs and flows are critical.

But what is more critical is perspective, patience and being attentive to the current conditions.

I see traders (and I have made this mistake) that sign on to an alert feed (as an example) and depending on timing (their timing within market cycles) can get frustrated. This is a mistake.

Right now we are in an inflection. Signing on to ANY platform ANYWHERE right now, everyone is in an inflection. It can be bad for some, choppy for others and for others a $STUDY and positioning time. You’ll find the more experienced traders are slowly positioning and getting ready for the next cycle. This is not a time where you will find optimum return, however, that time is near again. See our articles lately about time cycles or attend the Weekly Swing Trade Study sessions.

You need to look at your trading from a wider perspective than a month, you need to see it as cycles, these cycles can be months in duration.

Some cycles are better than others, they all have their own nature and nobody knows in advance exactly what that will look like.

If you study our Swing Trading feed you will find we $STUDY and prep and chew at the edges of plays getting positioning over and over and then BOOM BOOM BOOM BOOM BOOM etc…

And then back to $STUDY, prep, chew at the edges and that is at least 90% of the work and time. The winning when it comes is fast and furious. But you have to be ready, you have to do your homework, you have to have perspective and you have to have patience.

Our most recent returns, last 12 months have gone parabolic and the P&L I will finally release this weekend, it’s been busy for us to say the least.

We just got in to the ultimate location this week that I will be sharing with you soon, we have big news with EPIC Oil Machine Trading on deck, we’re managing a massive swing trade platform (we have upwards 40 trade in play at any given time and our profit runners on top of that), the Weekly Swing Study Sessions and a new Day Trade Alert feed that will get up and rocking soon (which is a great example, that takes time because the cycle has to come our way and when it does the feed will be in full swing, the set ups have to come to us we can’t force them).

Anyway, I’m trying to give some of the newer traders some perspective, we’re nearing 1000% returns in swing now (you’ll see on the P&L’s) and I don’t think we’ll ever see less than 400% per annum now, our process is really tight on the swing trade platform – BUT you have to understand most of those returns are in what we do when we are not winning which is about 90% of the time. Perspective is critical. Think duck hunting, you sit in the weeds and then BOOM BOOM BOOM. That is swing trading.

you have to understand most of those returns are in what we do when we are not winning

The oil trading different story, that is a different constant ebb and flow and you can see the most recent time cycles (legs of trade) clearly in the recent string of articles I’ve been writing about this move in oil. And then machine trading different yet. 

And in day trading, that alerts feed will take time to get flight properly, but the next up cycle it will be golden and it will be golden from there forward (we have to bring all our swing chart models down to a day trade time frame but the market has to be ready for us too, the cycle).

More experienced traders know all this, but it is a good reminder nonetheless.

If you find you’re being impatient it is because you are not preparing for the next, it’s that simple. If you’re thinking right as a trader the down time is the busiest time you will have – in preparation for the next.

If you have any questions send me a note any time.

Curt 

 

 

 

 

03
May 2020

Trader Notice RE: Internet Stability – Live Trading Room, Trade Alerts, Swing Trading Webinars, Machine Trading etc

Lead Trader Blog Post Curt Melonopoly

Trader Notice

RE: Internet Stability – Live Trading Room, Trade Alerts, Swing Trading Webinars, Machine Trading etc

We’re all set up at the new location, the internet is smokin’ fast for a beach location at 100 – 140 mbps, and upload isn’t bad either around 20. It’s a fiber line and stable.

However, there are still issues with internet capacity globally so we may have issue at times.

AND, Click Meeting is still having some issue with server capacity (intermittent).

Sunday night is the worst as is lunch hour during week and right around market open each day.

We have internet back-up services (2) should there be intermittent failure – for machine trading, trading alerts, communications etc.

Specifically as it applies to the trading room for live trading and swing trade webinars I would still expect intermittent issues. If you find that the trading room shuts down you may or may not have to sign back in depending on whether it is a click meeting server capacity issue or not.

Anytime we have a crash we will simply sign back in ourselves.

Specific to the Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY Webinars this is the worst time of the week for the internet capacity globally (COVID related) so if we have issues we will continue to sign back in and it doesn’t matter to me how long it takes to complete the $STUDY. Literally if it takes all night I don’t mind because this is my normal overnight study session anyway to prepare our traders for the upcoming week.

I tell you this so that you can use your own discretion for time management, it is much quicker to scan the videos after the fact than it is to be in the webinar itself.

Also for consideration, it can take some time to upload the videos to YouTube and get you the links (again depending on internet through Sunday night in to Monday morning). It happens to be the worst time of the week but this is when best to prepare for the week as futures have opened and the news flow starts as the global markets start to open.

Any questions let me know.

Thanks

Curt

26
Apr 2020

TRADERS – WEEKLY TRADING PLATFORM NOTES: Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Webinar, Live Trading Room, Trade Alerts, Machine Trading, Reporting

Lead Trader Blog Post , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Note to our Traders: Weekly Scheduling Notes in Advance of Trading

RE: Update to Previous Email – Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Webinars, Live Trading Room Broadcasts, Real-Time Swing and Oil Trade Alerts, Oil Machine Trading, Newsletter Reporting.

Well, the time cycle we are in is starting to heat up and this is the time to be awake, this week should see us start to lean in to our swing trade positioning and I expect a very active trading week in crude oil.

Below are some scheduling and development notes for our members / traders.

Internet Infrastructure.

As a result of the development work we do our small development team is in different countries and I happen to be at the beach void of first world.

When I travel (which is regularly) internet infrastructure has to be prepared and every single time we end up having to re-do what the locals have prepared for us in advance.

In this specific instance I had to change locations for security cautionary reasons due to the Corona lock-down.

I will note also that someday every possibility will be covered off on our internet preparation checklists and nothing will get past us in advance of me arriving to a location, nevertheless once again we are dealing with it.

BUT I am happy to report we have now have a 100% solution at my current location and complete resolution (installed) will be May 10th at the latest and more probably this week. Until then, below is how we will handle our trading services.

Sunday Swing Trade Webinar $STUDY.

I will only do the Weekly Swing Trade Watch List $STUDY by way of newsletter reporting and alert feeds and not live for now (until internet install is complete), working on the current reporting for this weeks trade set-ups on watch now for distribution.

At the end of last week many of the trades and markets started to firm up and themes are starting to develop. As a result the swing trade alerts started to increase in frequency as we neared the end of the week so you can expect this to be a busy week.

Be sure to read the recent swing trade articles and watch the newsletters and alerts flow carefully here.

Soon we will restart Sunday $STUDY webinars live when final internet install is complete.

Live Trading Broadcast Room.

The markets will be active this week so I have no choice but to run with what we have, hopefully they have the install done sooner than later. If we crash in the broadcast room we crash and I will just re-boot every-time.

We don’t have a choice we have to run with it. The time cycle is getting very involved – trades are “in play” and we have to go with it as it is. 

The Swing Trading set-ups are starting to get prime and our Oil Trading Machine Trade software is firing.

I will be in the live trading broadcast room during regular market hours and any other time trade becomes active in overnight futures or in pre or post markets.

Jen will be crediting Live Trading Room member accounts for any down-time.

Machine Trading.

You can expect the crude oil machine trading to be active now that EPIC V3.1.1 black swan and shorting trend updates are complete and it looks as though oil may be getting somewhat structured again after it’s “epic” collapse to negative territory.

The swing trading platform is being coded one set-up at a time as I am updating chart models, with two hundred equities we follow and code this will take time.

Alerts.

All alerts (oil trade alerts and swing trading alerts) will be as normal and will be sent out. Worst scenario we have internet back-up systems, the internet at this point only really affects the live broadcasting in the trading room.

One quick note, very soon I will be taking the swing trade set-ups and moving them down to daytrading time-frames also for intraday positioning as we build larger swing positions in the time cycle trajectory of trade – as such, we will be opening our daytrading alert feed again at that time (within 10 days at most) and swing trade members will get free access to that also.

Newsletters.

The swing trade and oil trade newsletter(s) will go out as usual and will actually be more timely and regular now that the Black Swan event is taking less of my time (time that was needed to understand the event to bias the trading going forward).

More specifically you can expect the swing newsletter flow to start prior to Monday premarket and the crude oil newsletter flow to start sometime Monday (I would like to see oil trade in futures prior to determining my bias on crude oil and invest the time in updating all the chart models also).

But the trade alerts will run live for both, if the trade is there, we’re go time.

Remember, if you need anything please email, if we haven’t responded to a previous just hit us again (it can get busy during market hours to say the least).

Peace and best,

Curt

Above all, keep your bias in check and remember the ranges can be very, very big in to these time cycles.

https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/1254449744836988928

 

 

15
Apr 2020

More Active Intra-Day Trading is Near (Time Cycle Inflection) RE: Live Trading Room, Oil & Swing Trade Alerts. Stocks, $SPY, OIL, $CL_F, $USO, GOLD, $GLD, SILVER, $SLV, $BTC, $VIX, $DXY)

Lead Trader Blog Post , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

IMPORTANT: Trading Team Note

This is likely one of the more important notes you will ever receive from me, the upcoming time-cycles are going to be historically important, the biggest in history past, present and future.

RE:  More Intra-Day Trading Near (Time Cycle Inflections)

Applies to: Live Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Swing Trade Alerts. Stocks, SP500, $SPY, OIL, $CL_F, $USO, GOLD, $GLD, $GC_F, SILVER, $SLV, BITCOIN, $BTC, Volatility, $VIX, US Dollar, $DXY

Good evening team,

The recent time cycle that peaked last week was spot on, we nailed the run up (many plays in equities were 2-6x hits) and then the down (OVX 20s to 340s, VIX we nailed, shorting MasterCard, Nike and WYNN with size and many more) and then the recent bounce has been good to us and we sold the day before and early morning of the pull back in Wednesday trade.

The time cycles we follow were spot on and have been now for near 5 years – this is a considerable advantage in our overall bias with trade positioning and themes (more on this in another note).

For those that are not aware, our swing trading platform easily returns triple digits per year and this year we expect 4 digit returns+ and the win rate is high – easily 80%+ sometimes better. You are welcome to inspect our alert feed anytime to confirm for yourself.

Why do I point this out?

Because we are now entering another turn (we’re in the turn now). Time cycle inflections are important.

This particular time cycle inflection from the first week of April 2020 (peak) to the last week of August 2020 peak is going to be aggressive and we expect the next after that in to the US election to be even more so.

In fact, we expect the volatility or better described as range of markets to increase for at least the next 4 time cycles and even likely in to mid 2022 and possibly in to 2025.

We have been spot on so far with our forecasts and don’t expect different anytime soon, it is simply math and natural order.

So why am I sending this notice to our trading team?

In this inflection (turn) in to and running to the last week of August it is important we are really on top of the inflections in stocks (equities), oil trading and commodities, volatility, indices and the Dollar.

We make the majority of our profit in inflections. There are periods we are quiet and then boom it’s time to go, it is in the “GO” where the money is made.

The next “GO” should be at latest this time next week, by then we should start to see inflections in the markets to really size in to themes of trade. If you study our swing trading alert feed you will see the quiet times and then BOOM it’s GO TIME and then quiet and so on.

In this particular turn and in the other time cycle inflections over the next few years I will be doing a lot more intra day and intra week swing trading (really it is better described as inflection theme trading).

More specifically, I will be more active, higher frequency, working the edges of the ranges to get sizing in to the inflection trades. This means a very active trading room and the alert feeds too of course. Click here for oil trade alerts and here for swing trade alerts.

We have a new internet line being run sometime between now and then that will allow for considerably better stability for the machine trading and the simple live voice broadcasting in the room, until then, if you cannot hear something because of internet or click meeting server issues (COVID life internet issues with everyone working from home) let me know, email me and I’ll send you a note on the set-up.

Between now and then (early to mid next week) I will be in deep $STUDY preparing all of our set-ups. We have 200 stocks (equities) modeled on our trading platform that in large part need to be updated and then also the models for SPY, OIL, GOLD, SILVER, DXY, VIX and Bitcoin. The chart models take a lot of work to update, so if you don’t hear from me that is why haha.

If there are any trade set-ups you want me to review be sure to send them on email.

If you are not a member of the trading room because of the cost send me a note (I get it, it’s not cheap, the alerts are much more affordable I know) but I will find a way to get you a long term subscription and that brings the monthly cost way way down and reasonable for anyone to access (if you are wanting to attend the trading room, it works out to 3,000.00 year or about 9.00 a day with the 50% discount and there are ways to finance that).

If nothing else, get in to those Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY sessions, they’re cheap, literally the cost of coffee, 10 session blocks at 100.00 at 4 hours a session = 40 hours of intense trade set-up study for 100.00 and 50% less for current members of Compound Trading Group. Cheap. Non member price 100.00. Current member price 50.00 (use code “webinar50”). If you can’t attend we send a video report out to everyone anyway.

Yes, I am pushing you, for good reason.

I intentionally brought the swing $STUDY session pricing down to next to zero so everyone has an opportunity in these time cycles. There are no excuses. I cannot stress enough how much your future self will thank you for being in it to win it between now and the global financial reset coming.

Oh and we’re running another trader’s conference (10 in person, 20 online) as soon as the borders open again and everyone can fly – current clients get first pick on the 10 seats in person (see tweet thread and video).

And if there’s anything else I can assist with please do not hesitate to reach out because the next few time cycles will be life changing for traders that are ready for them. I mean that in a very literal way. Our returns could easily spike to 5 digit returns, I’m not exaggerating – these are HUGE time cycle coming. 

Other items of note are that 1. our crude oil machine trading is introducing CFD’s in the next few weeks, so this is huge because then smaller accounts will be able to increase the win rate considerably (more on this in a near term article) and 2. yes I am going to give in and do some mainstream articles, they’ve been asking for years and more recently more (our time cycle work has them wondering haha) and I think some people need to know about the opportunity right in front of them – I do have a sense of obligation to that (see tweet thread).

Peace and best,

Curt 

Reminder to existing clients! If you are on Whatsapp and want to have the fastest direct access to my trading desk send your whatsapp number to [email protected] and I’ll connect to you there also.

Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):

Subscribe to Swing Trading Service:

Swing Trading Bundle (Swing Trading Newsletter, Live Swing Trading Alerts, Study Guides).

Swing Trading Newsletter (Weekly Newsletter Published for Traders).

Real-Time Swing Trading Alerts (Private Member on Twitter Feed and more recently by way of Email).

Swing Trading Study Guide Newsletters (After Trade In-Depth Reviews Including Set-Up Identification, Trading Plan, Sizing, Risk Management, ROI and more).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or In-Person).

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Free Swing Trading Periodical Contact Form (Complimentary Swing Trade Set-Ups to Email)

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Free Swing Trading Periodical Contact Form (Complimentary Swing Trade Set-Ups to Email)

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

 

 

 

19
Feb 2019

“The Bullet Hits Before You Hear It” | Why You Can’t Beat Machine Trading Algorithms.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy, General Complimentary Newsletters, Lead Trader Blog Post, Machine Trading , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

I Have Been Down the Rabbit Hole. 

I know my journey (of the last two and a half years) few have traveled. I know this to be so, like I know I breathe.

I didn’t know before I went down that hole, but I know now – how much I did not know before I went down that hole. And it’s huge. I knew nothing. Few know anything.

I can’t imagine many other disciplines in the world as off-side as this. Nothing, and I mean nothing in regular market banter, conventional stock exchange media or social media ever deals with the reality of what is down that hole. They don’t even know there is a hole (most).

Why is this topic of any importance to a trader or investor?

The topic? A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and

that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

Assuming the 80/20 rule applies to the markets, then 20 percent win 80 percent of the trades and reap 80% of the reward (ROE). I don’t know what the real numbers are – it was likely closer to 90/10 before machine learning entered the public stock markets. I would venture to guess it’s 97/3 or so now. But I don’t know.

The problem looks like this… what happens when the machines (run by less than .001% – a guess) garner 90% or more of the market return? Is that possible? I know it is, I know it may be true now, and if not it isn’t far away. What percentage of current liquidity is machine learning trade driven? What percentage of that is on the win side?

What does that look like in the future? How far away is that future? I will bet that future is here now and it has enormous effect on your earning potential (as a human trader). And I will put forward right here that it will end the way humans trade in global markets about five years out. It already has, the humans just haven’t accepted reality.

So why then is this so important? We’re here to win. We trade to win. To earn. To see return on equity. Return on time. The path forward is critical for any trader that derives their income from trading.

Early adopters will win. They will win because they will develop relationships with firms that will provide solutions. They will win because they will adopt the technology, relationships, financial rewards before the technology is out of reach (financially speaking). Or perhaps, never available at certain levels of society. Never available is more likely.

Early adopters will win.

The market is already littered with technology built on poor science. It simply doesn’t work. But the firms that have figured it out… have really figured it out. How long does it take them to hit market capacity? Will they share the technology? I say no, they won’t be sharing.

There are many questions.

At minimum, it’s prudent in my view for a trader to cozy up to the developers. This isn’t a sales pitch, we’re beyond selling anyone. We’ve completed our first machine learning software – we don’t need to sell you. So why write this article? Because I want to share something I’ve learned in the process of development that I think is of critical importance to anyone that has followed our journey. I feel a responsibility to share. Share what  you ask?

You can’t beat the machines. It’s not possible. And I know. I’m a damn good trader and I can’t even beat our first generation software with crude oil futures trade. I don’t think it has lost a trade this month (maybe it has but I don’t think so) and we’re near three weeks in to the month. And it’s not that it hasn’t lost, it is more about how it wins.

It knows before I do. It enters before I do. It trims in to positions and exits when I wouldn’t. It knows things I can’t know, I can’t see. It sees every line on every book in the library instantly, while I search for the right book on the shelf.

It sees every line on every book in the library instantly,

while I search for the right book on the shelf.

How you ask? It has intuitive like capabilities (as I do) but it can process the decisions (as if intuitively) many times faster than I. It has systematic approaches to trade (as do I) but it can process the decisions on thirteen time-frames considering the historical structure of the financial instrument and how each time-frame relates to the next and which structure or time-frame should trump various trade execution decisions (the rule-set).

It is simply faster. It can process 8000 rules and how each rule relates to the next in each of the structures on each time-frame instantaneously. That instantaneous decision would take me at least 12 months full time of charting, historical back testing and deep thought to conclude that one decision. The machine executed on the decision and left the trade behind before I glanced over and seen it was over. I didn’t have time to acknowledge it was leaving the scene.

It’s not only faster, but precise. It enters and exits with absolute precision.

Yesterday (President’s Day holiday) it executed on one trade. The biggest move of the day on a slow day and it executed before the move happened. It shorted oil, I sat watching thinking why the heck is it short here? Tick tock tick tock boom, oil dropped about 37 points near instant, on a low range boring holiday trading day. And it covered in a flash before I could process why exiting the trade at that juncture of trade on the chart was valid. It is fast and it acts as if it is intuitive. And it is only first generation software.

Here’s a post that shows the trade;

A trade or two prior to yesterday’s was the same way. I couldn’t believe what I was watching.

Here’s another example, it knows over and over again where the real move in a time frame is before the move.

And an example of how precise it is in comparison to my personal trade executions;

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in oil trade account gains and it was yoked to a human at all times that throttled its executions by about 10 to 1. What am I saying? It could have traded up to 10x the return (assuming the same win rate and ROE on each trade would have transpired had it been non-yolked).

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in account gains.

Over the last few days we’ve allowed it autonomy – to a point. It can execute with autonomy when it is executing but we still have it throttled to about 5 to 1, this will be slowly adjusted / released. This week is a holiday week so there is issue in the structure of the models so it will be a slower than usual machine trading week for our model, but next week will be a mad house – a slaughter house. I’m not exaggerating. It doesn’t lose. Okay, it does – maybe, but rarely and for next to nothing for loss when and if it does. If it’s wrong… its out and fast.

If you think this is exaggeration, visit our public facing Discord trading chat room (click here) and randomly ask anyone to step forward and tell you I’m wrong (members I am referring to). Or check out the alert feed yourself. I win around 90% of my personally executed trades in oil (yes documented), it (the machine learning software) wins something nearing 100%. But its wins are the real meat of each trade. My trades are choppy. It harvests the move in a way I cannot. The compound return effect on the difference is astronomical. Click here for a recent article I posted about compound trading gains in oil trade.

We have been working day and night for over two years to develop machine trading software that really works. Why do I say “that really works?” Because most is garbage. Below are the reasons why most algorithmic trading is a waste (how ours was developed) and why you the human trader cannot beat real machine trading execution in the stock market.

Take four people (average at any given time in the development process), have them work 60 – 80 hours a week for 2.5 years. That’s about 14,000 hours. If the methodology used is right you then have at least another 14,000 hours to refine the software rule-set along with constant updates etc. We have now completed the first 14,000 hours. What has that experience taught me? Primarily that a human trader will never beat machine software. And that doesn’t consider machine software that becomes intuitive like – AI, Artificial Intelligence.

Here are just a few (and I mean a few) reasons why you will never out trade the machine – specific to the methodology of development we used to develop our first machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts CL. Yes, I am going to tell you how we did it. Why? Because I won’t tell you how our intuitive development is implemented, that is proprietary and always will be. Here’s the nuts and bolts:

  1. ROI – First month the machine garnered a 63% increase in trade account size and that was only the actionable oil trade alerts. Not the machine HFT returns. This means the software executed many more trades than what was alerted. We can only alert what a human can type fast enough to alert that could be actionable for our membership. Next on our list is a real-time feed for our members (automated alerts). In other words, the machine gained much more than 63% on its trading account, but that is private and always will be. What is public is what we alert that is actionable by a human trader executing trades manually. We are judged on what data can deliver as actionable to our clients.
  2. INSTANT EXECUTION OF DEEP TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE – Take thirteen time-frames of crude oil (the charts) and find the structure of the financial instrument on each time frame (this is not systematic machine trading, this is an intuitive like process). Not to mention the time involved and cost. The human can’t process decisions on thirteen time-frames (both systematic and intuitive like and as they relate to each other, as described earlier in this article).
  3. INTUITIVE EXECUTION, INSTANT – Each time frame structure as it relates to each other. Continuing specifically the intuitive like component of point 2 above… imagine constructing the models for the structure of the financial trading instrument on thirteen time frames, that in of itself is a massive undertaking. Then being able to almost intuitively determine how intra-day trade relates to each and which trumps the other. This is massive.
  4. FAST EXECUTION. The machine can out execute any human with orders in and out and trailing and on and on. Complex structures of entries and exits and more instantaneously. This is critical for return on each trade.
  5. PRECISE EXECUTION. Have you ever watched crude oil trade on the one minute chart? Precise execution with orders that change frequently in a flash of a second increases returns on each trade considerably. You can’t imagine the importance until you’ve been down the hole.

I am not speaking to;

I’m not speaking to conventional hedge fund robo adviser software. Most of it is junk designed to rob the masses taking advantage of the casino mind or lazy investor.

I’m not speaking to high frequency trading that leverages machine speed, order flow or execution locality. That is a form of HFT we have no interest in. We want transferable knowledge as it applies to the natural trading structure of the financial markets. Transferable in that the process used to derive the model for one can be applied to another.

I’m not speaking to run of the mill python code some random developed in his/her basement with 500.00 and an idea of how an instrument trades (the systematic process).

And finally, I am not speaking to the news oriented bots running software trades on intra-day media or geopolitical driven events.

The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning.

The intuitive like component, beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies. The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning. It is (as it applies to where we are now) the early building blocks of autonomous machine learning trade.

Beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies.

How did we get intuitive like software to work? What does intuitive like mean to us?

Here’s a glimpse… a real trader with decades of experience traded real-time for hundreds of hours live with software developers that extracted the intuitive like human understanding – real-time, asking questions, engaging in the why and how at each tick in the chart.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code. Only now… we have manifold times more horse-power.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code.

The new brain – the new trader, the intuitive like software… can execute hundreds of times faster on thousands of times the information second by second. Every tick on the chart is a complete new set of rules that need confronting, they need to be examined from every angle, back tested, related to each time frame, a plan derived and a trade has to executed right now. A series of right now. With precision.

The bullet hits before you hear it.

This is why the human will never beat (real) machine learning trade software. The only question that determines how good the software is, is how good the trader was that the developers used to extract from that created the entity (the software) and what process was used to do that. The cost? 14,000 – 28,000 hours at hundreds of dollars per hour – for a generation one package. And that is just the start.

It is a different world and we’re not by far the first out of the gate. But I know we’re running one of the better models out there. That I do know. Because it wins when it goes in to battle.

Any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier.

I also know that any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier. If you don’t you will regret not taking the time to forge your future. Now.

Best and peace,

Curt

Learn How to Day Trade Crude Oil Here:

Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil – real life articles / examples from an expert crude oil day trader.

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About SOVORON™

SOVORON™ offers a unique trading service providing clients with technology application based Machine Trade of personal investment accounts. To explore their unique client service structure click here http://sovoron.com/ or call 1-849-861-0697.

About Compound Trading Group.

Compound Trading Group is a market data provider to retail, commercial enterprise and institutional traders.

Trader Services – Compound Trading Group provides trader data services such as algorithm development, periodicals, trade coaching, trade alerts and live trading rooms. The near term objective is a digital dashboard environment for traders to fully engage machine trade and intelligent assisted trade data offered only at the commercial enterprise level.

Commercial Enterprise Services – Compound Trading Group develops financial instrument algorithm models and provides connect-ability to its proprietary AI Machine Trading software / data (representing various financial instruments) to private trade and institutional firms. Compound Trading Group also provides enterprise trader training, integration services, custom software / data constructs and strategic partner development opportunities.

Learn more at https://compoundtrading.com.

 

 

 

06
Jan 2019

Lead Trader 2019 Trading Guidance Report (Time Cycles) & Trading Platform Updates

General Complimentary Newsletters, Lead Trader Blog Post , , Curt Melonopoly

In an effort to provide trading guidance to our members on a regular basis and in the spirit of operating a transparent trading service, my letter to members below should provide clarity on our goals for 2019 and how we see the markets shaping up for trade.

2017 and 2018 Market Guidance Review.

Prior to the election we signaled bullish on equities and had a fantastic six months post election with huge returns. Then consistently our returns have softened and the last quarter returns have been less than 40% (if calculated on an annual basis) – specific to no algorithm trades. So we went from 400% to 40% since the election (again, if you calculated various time frames based on annual basis).

Late June of 2018 we started signalling a slow down in equities and our alerts and swing trading publications slowed, the market did in fact turn down. However, the end of that time cycle is here now.

Our time cycle work with instrument structure has been by far our highest probability guidance.

2019 Market Guidance Overview.

The list below coincides with our algorithm models and swing trading.

At this point, the time cycle inflection looks as follows;

SPY / equity markets bullish in to early May 2019 (some sectors will do better than others – hence our theme based approach to swing trade reporting and alerts in to 2019) with possibility for more frequent volatility spikes.

Oil bullish in to early May 2019.

VIX bearish in to early May 2019 however (as above) we see probability of VIX spikes very high.

Gold and Silver to hold moderate with likely pressured trade to bearish side.

Bitcoin as with Gold and Silver.

US Dollar DXY to come under bearish pressure.

If the above plays out as we expect then come mid May 2019 there is a high likelihood that the opposite for everything listed above (with possibly the exception being DXY) will be in play.

HOWEVER, IT IS CRITICAL to be aware that the guidance above can flip with the markets. Geopolitical risk is rampant right now. Our reporting depth will be significant for this reason. The instrument structure will be the focus and time frame of trade key to each structure. Stay flexible to the market inflections and trade the instrument structure (support and resistance therein) to your chosen time frame.

Reporting and Trade Alerts in the Next Time Cycle. 

The algorithm and swing trading reports will all be updated and distributed between Tuesday Jan 8 – 15 2019 to allow for two days of market action (this Monday and Tuesday) in to this new time cycle (post holiday).

There will be follow up reporting to approximately Jan 23rd that will focus on instrument structure (trading ranges on different time frames) for the algorithm models and swing trade equities we follow and then intensive thereafter through six month time cycle.

The deep dive we will be doing is for our trading on different time frames (swing trade and day trading) – you will find our trading to be significantly more active than the previous six months. This will include the machine trading in oil.

I should point out here also that the swing trade reporting and trades will be selective / theme based as we see a stock pickers six months next.

2018 / 2019 Work in Progress List.

We do have some team WIP left over from 2018 that will be cleaned up in January (it is nominal clerical type stuff for the most part). Some of the list is below:

  • Rules based machine trading protocol for oil to be published soon. This has been difficult to publish because our learning curve has been parabolic (the more you know about how an instrument trades the more you know that you didn’t know prior).
    • Our learning curve is starting to level out now so this will be released soon.
  • Machine trading signals to be fed in to main trading room (initially manually then auto when API integration complete).
    • For now I will be verbally feeding these in to the live trading room, however, Jeremy is working on the API soon for automation.
  • New pricing to be published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
    • Early in 2019 there will be a price increase on all services (when everything is updated).
  • Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
    • This will occur with the deep dive we are doing over next month in reporting initiative.
  • Trading Profit Loss to be Published for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
  • Previously recorded Trading Boot Camp Event videos to become available on Compound Trading website.
  • Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
  • New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
  • 1 day Boot Camps for each of the seven trading models and swing / daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
    • We wanted to do this late 2018 but time didn’t allow, we’re targeting Feb 2019.
  • 3 day Cabarete trading boot camp to be announced for Feb / Mar ish 2019.
  • Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
  • Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).

2019 Platform Normalization (copied from last member update)

In year one our goal was to simply get lift to our basic trading service platform and that was accomplished.

In year two (2018) our goal was to develop the software for machine trading to the oil model and bring forward various other development and that has been accomplished (it has been much more work than we expected and we are just there).

In year three (2019) our focus will be to normalizing our trading services platform in the first 6 months. Our focus also will be toward trading for profit and building our learning centers for our trading community. In the latter 6 months we will turn our focus back to software development with coding BTC and SPY at minimum. The difference will be that we expect to have staff in each area of the platform so that areas of service are not interrupted (stretched) with a start up staff size.

In summary, this means that we are cleaning up our work in progress from 2018 and going in to 2019 our service will be hyper focused on trading, reporting, trade alerts and the development of learning systems for our membership base.

The time cycle starting in to the new year is significant in size in global markets and we intend to capitalize on the opportunity this brings.

Remaining Discount Codes Expire Tuesday Midnight.

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20
Dec 2018

Premarket Notes, Trading Room Holiday Hours, Market Data Feed Updates, Reports

Lead Trader Blog Post, Office Memorandum Curt Melonopoly

Good morning Traders,

Trading View Data Feeds

The market data feed issue encountered a few days ago has proven to be more complicated in resolution than first assumed. It seems the changes in data flow may be here to stay. This affects a number of charts. For example the 240 min EPIC chart noted in previous communication. This requires our staff to re chart and / or re-integrate to our reporting and software development on our end. In short, it has caused a considerable work load for our staff to adjust.

Report Distribution Timing

Due to the data feed challenge, all weekly reporting will now be distributed over the next 72 hours (we are in final “work-arounds” with data for the new charting to be distributed).

Premarket Report – Trading Room

This will serve as premarket report today and no formal report will be issued.

The trading room will be open today and tomorrow and will be closed for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Annual Staff WIP

Our communication in the live trading room will be limited to alerts only as we are focused toward getting the reports out and our annual work in progress list fully complete before Jan 1.

2019 Platform Normalization (post software development)

In year one our goal was to simply get lift to our basic trading service platform and that was accomplished.

In year two (2018) our goal was to develop the software for machine trading to the oil model and bring forward various other development and that has been accomplished (it has been much more work than we expected and we are just there).

In year three (2019) our focus will be to normalizing our trading services platform in the first 6 months. Our focus also will be toward trading for profit and building our learning centers for our trading community. In the latter 6 months we will turn our focus back to software development with coding BTC and SPY at minimum. The difference will be that we expect to have staff in each area of the platform so that areas of service are not interrupted (stretched) with a start up staff size.

In summary, this means that we are cleaning up our work in progress from 2018 and going in to 2019 our service will be hyper focused on trading, reporting, trade alerts and the development of learning systems for our membership base.

The time cycle starting in to the new year is significant in size in global markets and we intend to capitalize on the opportunity this brings.

Markets and Trading

Today is the peak of the broad global time cycle. The markets are reflecting such with most of the markets at major support tests.

As noted previous, considerable caution is warranted one week either side of the time cycle.

As we come out the other side of this time cycle our trading will become progressively more aggressive as the days and weeks continue in to next 6 months.

Any questions please reach out.

Curtis

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