Why a Trader’s Winning Percentage Matters: Trader Question & Answer (also discussed time cycles, $VIX, market extremes)
A question and answer on WhatsApp this morning between myself and one of our newer swing trading subscribers.
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Hi curt , for VIX , what instrument do you recommend for buying the insurance ?
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: we use VXX
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Ok thanks , and do you treat it like a normal position size ?
[10:20 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: yes, but you have to consider it insurance on shorter time frames, but yes, none are great trading vehicles but for insurance not so bad, but sometimes you get lucky too on top of insurance haha
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Ok thank you 🙏
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: no problem, just be aware the VIX toward end of XXXX could see XXXXs!
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: could
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: nobody knows
[10:23 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I gather time cycle can be big increase or decrease right ?
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: correct, we don’t know which direction, we know where
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but i’m protecting our positions over long weekend, for me, market is too happy, for me thats a potential problem
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: same as when market is selling off crazy
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but like oil selling off haha there is no bottom
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: and there is no top
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but when things are extreme i like caution, and right now i see extreme, in to a long weekend, imo thats risky
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I find these time cycles pretty fascinating
[10:26 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: yes, the deeper in to it you get the better you will get at reading them
[10:26 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: it is where most of our profit comes from
[10:27 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: the new P&L release will show you in great detail, should be out this weekend
[10:28 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I gather the general situation for the group is few recommendations until time cycle direction starts to show itself more
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: exactly, our money comes in to and out of the key areas, we still trade in between, but experience show and as you study time cycles, you’ll see why 80% of your ROI will come from being on top of the cycles
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: limits choppy losses too
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: choppy losses have an effect on your winning mind too
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: avoiding loss is important
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: bottom line, you want your subconscious to only think win
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: because it will lead around your brain on a leash
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: this is why i dont accept a 50% win rate is okay, even if you win big on wins
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: the top goal should be highest percentage of wins
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Love it
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: a trained mind is most important imo, then everything else follows
As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime [email protected].
Peace and best.
Curt
Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):
- Swing Trading Performance Summary (Q4 2019, Q1 2020 Interim): Return %, Gain/Loss, Win/Loss Rate, Number of Trades.
- Swing Trading Alert Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 1543.93% Feb 1-Feb 21, 2020. $200,000.00 – $230,051.00 #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 64.45% Jan 1 – Jan 31, 2020. $200,000.00 – $208119.00. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 246.31% Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2019. $200,000.00 – $220,898.50. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 315.32% Nov 1 – Nov 30, 2019. $200,000.00 – $224,130.16. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 62.69% October 2019. $100,000.00 – $103,970.20. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss Annualized 355.22%. March 26 – June 28, 2017. $204,616.60 – $303,443.60. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading (Short Term Trades) Profit Loss Annualized 2,437.96%. April 3 – June 28, 2017. $17,354.69 – $37,713.16 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing and Day Trading Profit Loss – Annualized 957.90% Dec 26, 2016 – March 26, 2017. $100,000.00 – $180,347.88 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
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Article Topics: Q&A, Trader, Trading, Swing Trading, VIX, Time Cycles, Market Timing