Summary Review – Answers For Questions Received About EPIC V3 Draw-Down in Oil Trading Room Today.
Please Note: There is an edit revision below that includes a question and answer session for Sept 5, 2019 that provides significantly more detail.
As the trading day progressed and we broadcast our trades in the live oil trading room today we received a number of questions by way of email and direct message. Below is an oil trading room review summary.
We did not have time to respond to the questions during the trading day as we were working with the machine trading software (coding).
Today the software had a larger than normal draw-down shorting against a rally in crude oil trade. Below is the daily profit and loss chart.
For September 4, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily -$1,205 YTD +$12,559 Projected $77,696 or 78% Per Annum. v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Sample Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #machinetrading #oiltradealerts
The sequence the software was triggering trades to was a new sequence. When a new sequence activates the first go-round is often a loss, albeit normally less than today’s.
On the second or third go-round you will find that the software will win and continue to win better each time or it simply will not re-engage that same sequence.
The draw-down amount will normally be less as I mentioned, however, draw-downs will occur.
Nevertheless, the EPIC v3 crude oil trading software is extremely stable for a number of reasons, below are some of those reasons.
- If you look at the ROI trajectory for the software you will find that when draw-downs occur that the software will self-adjust its risk threshold to maintain the minimum trajectory.
- The software catalogs its trading set-ups, some set-ups it near never loses, some rarely, some not so rare. The point is, the software is coded to self adjust its minimum achieved ROI trajectory (correct it) as needed. In other words, it is coded to correct its minimum achieved trajectory by way of risk-threshold. To be more clear, it will be sure it self adjusts (wins) and how it is coded to do that is to bias its trade executions to its more probable set-ups.
- Its current ROI trajectory is between 80% – 90% approximately, you will see the software self-adjust its trade executions to more probable set-ups until that minimum trajectory is returned.
- Each time the trajectory is returned to the minimum average it will engage higher risk to learn trade set-ups. This process will continue and repeat over and over again. Over time the trajectory should increase on average as a result.
- The risk threshold of v3 vs v4 is much less aggressive (draw-downs and gains are considerably less volatile) and days like today will be few and far between because (as explained above) it will self-adjust back to the minimum ROI trajectory via the most probable trade set-ups of which it has some now that literally it very never loses if at all. It can rely on the catalog of those set-ups to adjust.
I can’t stress enough that the v3 software is not anywhere near similar in aggressiveness to the v4 version. This version is coded to avoid volatility, avoid large draw downs, and self adjust its risk threshold via high probable set-ups to snapiback to its minimum ROI trajectory as needed.
Watch the software over the next number of days and you will see it return to its minimum average trajectory and then you will see it take new sequence trade set-ups and the process will continue to repeat over and over.
If the software did not have trade set-ups (sequences) that it wins at near 100% of the time none of the above would apply.
Any questions about the detail of code architecture feel welcome to send us questions anytime so we can publish responses for our stakeholders to review as needed.
Below is an update. After the original blog post was released we had a few more questions come in that I would add answer to below. What I have done is copy and pasted the conversation below.
September 5 2019 Update: Oil Trading Room Review: Question and Answers EPIC V3 Software Protocol
[6:54 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: I still don’t understand that in some of the big moves the software fires opposite to the direction of the move but something we can talk about on Saturday
[7:22 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: easy answer
[7:22 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: if you look at the chart the price has come way off
[7:22 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: software had order flow right
[7:23 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: execution of sequence needs tweaking
[7:23 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: same as when it gets the bottoms in sell offs, it used to struggle with that
[7:23 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: as far as why it didn’t trigger with the rally….
[7:24 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: thats simple too
[7:24 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: order flow is random in a rally like that, it will near never trigger mid rally in rally’s induced by news, no predictable order flow data
[7:24 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: short covering and retail daytrader trade causes the majority of the rally, no structure
[7:25 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so the key is it triggering on the predictable wins to maintain ROI trajectory and as time goes on slowly learning other set ups
[7:25 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: i should have put this in the original blog post report
[7:26 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: i will do an addendum / update report
[7:27 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: I understand why it would not fire in the big moves because of lack of structure and order flow
[7:27 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: I just don’t understand why when there is a big move down it is firing long and when there is a big move up it fires short
[7:27 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: we tried to code a trajectory trade sequence for rally’s on news but we couldn’t get the code, too random
[7:28 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that makes sense to me
[7:28 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: because its catching the end of the move to turn the other way, next in the code is to get it to hold some size through the reversal
[7:29 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the essence of the development right there, step one is code the reversal step two code the middle of the move, the middle is much more complicated to code
[7:30 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Ahhh okay
[7:31 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the order-flow at the reversal is where the trading edge is…. seeing the order-flow pattern of the other machine liquidity on the IDENT program starting to turn for the reversal, thats why the machine trade software nails near 100% of the turns up in price on intraday trade after a sell off, but to get the sell-off you have to get the reversal like it was trying to do today and then you’re golden
[7:31 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Okay yes I understand that now
[7:31 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: its all about being able to get the reversal first, thats where the predictability is
[7:32 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: once you have the sequence for the reversal then you can start on the middle core of the trade, we have the sell off reversal perfected and now we’re working on the middle of the move
[7:32 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the reversal after a rally to the short side still needs work, they’re different (reversal at top and reversal at bottom intraday)
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: without the reversal right its impossible to get the rest, the reversal is where you have to plant your trade, start your trade for high win rate probability, nothing else provides a high probability scenario that can be duplicated time after time
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: hope that helps
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes I get that now
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: good questions for the report update, doesn’t hurt to share
[7:35 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: You want to get the top of the rally
[7:35 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: what happens in the middle is too random so if you get the top of a rally or the bottom of a sell off for the reversal and get your size in place then you have the trend to make the next turn
[7:36 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: But what is telling the software it is at the top when it really isnt and so it keeps firing short when the rally has not ended. That’s what I wanted to understand
[7:36 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: its the bottoms and tops that have clear predictability, hence why we have the near 100% win rate on sell off reversals, but the rally tops are a different sequence that we’re working on
[7:37 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: it was firing in to the top today, it nailed the top of the rally, it was firing 56.12 to 56.50, and then it came off to 55.90, its the same as the sell off bottoms, it trades them the same way, same concept, different sequence
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: that wasn’t the problem
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: That makes sense. Because I remember you working on the bottoms of the sell off and now have that nailed
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the problem is the sequence that it uses to gain size at the top and hold for the sell off reversal after the rally is the challenge we were working on
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the sequence at tops is different than at bottoms
[7:39 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that makes sense to me
[7:39 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: we have the bottom sequence perfected for the turn up after the sell-off, in that scenario we are now working on the sizing so that it holds some in the reversal rally
[7:39 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: but the secret is this…
[7:40 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the only way the code wins near 100% of the time, the only way that is possible is at the reversals, reversal of a rally or reversal of the sell off
[7:40 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: thats how the others that are winning have done it, we can see it in the order flow, its precise and repeatable over and over again
[7:41 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the middle of the move isn’t that way, it is random
[7:41 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Okay I understand much better now
[7:42 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so if you have an ROI trajectory at say 85% and your code is nailing every bottom the only way to increase the ROI is to nail the tops or get your size better at bottoms for more profit in the move
[7:42 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so slowly we’ll work on nailing the tops for reversals and slowly work on holding more size when we’ve nailed the bottom reversals to increase ROI
[7:43 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: when we lose as we develop those scenarios those trades won’t trigger (the software learning will stop) and the predictable set ups only will trigger to keep the 85% ROI at minimum (or whatever the ROI trajectory is at)
[7:44 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: we have more than just the bottom reversals after a sell off in the ammo, but i think you get my point
[7:44 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: there’s daytrading set ups it triggers to all the time, small wins intraday
[7:44 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Makes sense
[7:45 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: its just that today was a mathematically very large rally to which you see a larger than average loss, thats why i know that scenario will be very few and far between, very rare
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that was an unusually large move in price
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so its about risk management when it goes wrong and when it does the software / development team stopping the learning and software only trades what we know wins until trajectory of ROI is back in play (returned to its regular trajectory)
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: 3 days of trading and the previous ROI trajectory will be back at 85% – 90% and then as it learns the trajectory will turn up because the software now has more set-ups to trigger on that it wins consistently, at current level it is maxed out at about 90% ROI so it needs to add to its catalog of set-ups to increase ROI trajectory, the learning is where you will have short term draw-downs
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that’s good
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Article Topics; crude oil, trading, profit loss, coding, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL