Good morning swing traders and welcome to the Compound Trading weekly swing trading stock picks memo for the week of Feb 6, 2017!
Don’t hesitate to email us at [email protected] anytime with any questions about any of the swing trades listed below. Or, if we get bogged down private message Curtis in trade room or direct message him on Twitter. Market hours are tough but we endeavor to get back to everyone after market each day.
Notices:
New swing trading pick is $AMS – its a hot one (small cap) and this thing can run! The rest are from the previous report. I also add to others previously listed below and provide some alerts on plays that members have done well on that you may want to consider closing positions on.
It is important to note the other charts below have not been updated since being first inserted here, so be sure to look up most recent trading ranges on a chart before considering trades. Some of the plays below have done extremely well but it may be too late too enter (depending on set-up) – we will update the old ones soon also so it isn’t confusing. Also of note, any updates below specific to this week are highlighted in red to simplify the process for you.
And finally quick, I should mention we are at an inflection point and we are waiting for test areas in metals to play out here soon – as soon as those decisions do we will have a number of recommendations we are going to add to this (we expect likely this week). Most immediate are the tech stock picks below… we provide notes below and you want to watch very closely now!
This Swing Report is in Development – But We’re Getting There.
Below you will find my top ten picks for swing trading in the first quarter of 2017 (plus a few bonus picks I will be swing trading). I am currently in the middle of compiling the due diligence and charting set-ups for publication for over fifty charts so this list may grow considerably – I am excited about 2017.
As mentioned previous, I will also include our regular algorithmic modeling equities relating to Oil, Gold, Miners, Silver, US Dollar, Volatility and SPY in my 2017 reports (in addition to the ten others listed below) FYI.
In my reports I will focus on both long term holds and swing trading these equities with an intent to try and time the highs and lows (pull-backs) as best as possible. I know many propose that picking the highs and lows isn’t the best method – but to be frank it has served me well over the years.
Also, I should mention, that any of the stocks below that do not trade well (or as planned) I will switch out with another choice as the weeks progress. But the intent is to hold ten investment / swing stocks (per below) and also swing trade in and out of the regular algorithmic modeling equities I mentioned also.
Oh, and the updates most often will be coming out more often than weekly also (thought I should mention that).
First step is to get charts out with levels I will be trading. Then I’ll put out more DD on each also.
I am going to start below with ones that are most timely and build this out from there (in order of priority for my personal trades and what I see going on in the market).
The Ten Swing Trades I am going to focus on in the First Quarter of 2017 are as follows:
1 – Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL, $GOOG
Feb 17, 2017 Member Update: We expect a signal from the Trump camp soon (late this week), and if positive, this will be a very strong play – watch close! This needs to be high on your radar going forward!
We like this chart. Watch for an upside break out of the triangle. The principles apply the same to $GOOG and $GOOGL charts fyi. Also, watch the MACD close, it looks primed for a move. Earnings are Thursday. If price breaks to downside I will update with levels to watch. Also, the is a chart below that shows upside target.
Fibonacci to watch, triangle, MACD, Break to upside possible in Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL
Link to live $GOOGL chart in TradingView.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GOOGL/isvDnbTQ-Swing-Trading-Member-Chart-GOOGL/
1003.17 Price Target in 2017 with upside break-out. Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL
Technically, the price target (should price break to upside) is 1003.17 before Jan 29 2018.
1003.17 Price Target in 2017 with upside break-out. Alphabet (Google) $GOOGL
2 – Amazon $AMZN
My fourth priority is Amazon. I don’t want to over simplify this trade – but the bottom line is I’m looking for a pull-back and an entry as close to that 200 day (pink line with green arrow) as possible. I don’t think this stock will stop anytime soon. DD to follow soon.
Feb 7, 2017 Member Alert! We haven’t got a pull back to the 200 day and depending on how tech does with Trump we may or may not, however, in overnight trade (premarket) price is close to the 100 day and I may take a test long position. This is one of our favorite picks so we will be quite aggressive with our attempts to get in at an inflection – so we are thinking sometime in the next few days looks decent.
$AMZN Swing
3 – Juno $JUNO
Feb 7, 2017 Member Update: $JUNO since my first entry mid December 2016 has consistently moved in an upward trend, and from that perspective has been a good stock pick. But it hasn’t been excellent like many of my other picks. It does have a gap fill coming soon so if you are long I would ratchet up your stops as you near 22.70 area.
$JUNO Live Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JUNO/W0WEYDQJ-JUNO-Swing-Trade-Member-Stock-Pick/
$JUNO Swing Trade Member Stock Pick
4 – CombiMatrix Corp $CBMX
My second priority is $CBMX. I am already in this swing and plan to enter in dips at the diagonal trend line (blue). Initial target area is around 5.57 with much greater potential upside. The Trump factor may cause this to come off a bit so my bias is toward late spring for first price target.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CBMX/qtdyUyY0-CBMX-Swing-Trade/
$CBMX Swing Trade
5 – OakTree Capital $OAK
Oaktree Capital Group, LLC (OAK) today announced that it will report fourth quarter and full year 2016 financial results prior to the opening of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, February 7, 2017.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oaktree-schedules-fourth-quarter-full-133000267.html
Was trading at 37.57 – 38.00 when we originally started to look at it, currently trades at 41.65.
42.71 – 43.50 is our short term swing target (less than 3 months).
Feb 7, 2017 Member Alert! $OAK has met this swing trade target for our members – caution forward please!
49.58 is our 2017 target. No target date.
Our traders will be watching earnings (much like we did with Google last week and we will be doing with Amazon this week). Pending earnings and price action this will be when we enter a trade. Some of our swing traders have obviously seen decent gains since we first put this on our swing trading list a number of weeks back (good timing actually), but our traders have not taken a position yet.
$OAK – OakTree Capital Group
Oaktree Capital Trading View Live Charting:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OAK/w2CBerv2-Swing-Trading-Newsletter-Oaktree-Capital-OAK/
6 – VanEck Vectors Russia ETF $RSX
Feb 7, 2017 Alert! Although this has done exceptionally well since my first entry late 2016 I am now out of my position and am awaiting a pull back to 100 day at minimum.
7 – BOFI Holdings $BOFI
Feb 7, 2017 Member Update! Here is another I have done well since my first entry late 2016 and I am now waiting for another pullback to at least the 50 day if not 100 day to add. Holding full position and expect a return of 6% approximately (from today’s price) in 2017. If I can get a pullback I will be very happy.
$BOFI Swing Trading Member Stock Pick
8 – Sunoco Logistics Partners $SXL
9 – US Silica Holdings $SLCA
My fifth priority is $SLCA. Again, another simple chart and it will require some patience. I see a pull-back coming and huge upside under the Trump inertia in to summer. I am looking for a pull-back to the 50 day (yellow arrow) or the 100 day preferably (blue arrow). If it gets away on me I’ll likely chase it and scale in 1/5th at a time.
Feb 7, 2017 Member Alert! We never did get that pull back, and I appreciate the notes from members that have done well with this swing nonetheless! However, caution is warranted entering this play with-out a pull-back.
$SCLA Swing Trade
10 – EOG Resources $EOG
The Bonus Picks for 2017 I will be Swing Trading also:
1 – $GREK Global Greece ETF
2 – $TRCH Torchlight Energy
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TRCH/xxpZ4uPM-TRCH-Swing-Trade/
$TRCH Swing Trade
3 – $NG Nova Gold
The first swing of 2017 I will be entering (likely today) is NovaGold. First target is 6.46 area and second target is 7.30 area. It is currently trading at 5.10. It’s full extension is over 8.50.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NG/1Sz7RDKg-NG-Novagold-Swing-Trade/
$NG Novagold Swing Trade
4 – New the week of Feb 6, 2017 is $ASM.
$ASM comes to us by reference of HedgeHog trader who has spent some time in our trading room lately and is a close friend of ours. His due diligence on this one is solid in our opinion and the chart is about to break out – it is just shy of the 200 day! Here’s the transcript of his attendance in our trading room yesterday if you wish to view. He also mentions in that transcript other picks he likes (such as $NG, $THM, $NAK, $CPO.V).
$ASM Chart Live on Trading View: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ASM/Wn17X1qn-ASM-Swing-Trade-Member-Chart/
$ASM Swing Trade Member Chart
Our Standard Algorithmic Modeling Securities I will be providing Swing Trade levels for are:
1 – $SPY
2 – $VIX
My seventh priority is the VIX. I see a pull-back in the market coming and a lift in VIX. The primary trade I am looking for is actually a short in the VIX when it gets upside it’s bolllinger band (it’s a little more complicated than that – specifically with timing and I will be putting an alert out when I do it anyway) – I’ll also play some short term longs in $TVIX or $UVXY.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/t6YF7SQY-VIX-Short-Swing-Trade-Above-Bollinger-Band/
$VIX Short Swing Trade Above Bollinger Band
3 – $DXY
4 – $SLV
5 – $GLD – Gold (and miner’s $GDX)
Feb 7, 2017 $GDX Alert – Members, this trade went exactly as planned and is now beyond our call so caution please!
My third priority on this list are the miner’s – $GDX and leveraged friends. This one is risky but comes with large gains if miner’s get moving and price breaks in to next quadrant above the yellow one outlined on the chart below. And for the risk taker it can be traded with leveraged ETN’s. There are inherent risks however; one is that price is not at bottom of the trading quadrant so an entry here is not ideal and the obvious issue is the Trump factor.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8QOM4r5s/
$GDX Swing Trade
6 – $USOIL / $WTI
Feb 17, 2017 Update: In overnight trade $USOIL is trading at 52.19 and there is a diagonal support trendline intra-day below at approximately 52.28 – we will be looking at taking a long position in that area if we can get it – with a tight 1% stop.
In overnight lab work our developers established a diagonal trendline (blue line in chart that has a blue arrow pointing at it) that has established itself as strong support. If you take a swing trade against that support (as as close to it as possible) then look to the upside of that white dotted arrow line as your target long. Ratchet up stops there.
Crude algo intra work sheet 208 AM Jan 20 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Email or DM me on Twitter anytime with thoughts or questions!
Thanks for all the thanks notes to btw! So to close, right now we’re at an inflection point, if our markets send metals higher we have a number of picks ready to post and you will see a lot of detail on those new picks if this occurs. If that does not occur soon then we will be looking at another direction. We are also watching Trump and Tech and Bio very close. And finally, the $ASM pick in our opinion is one of the better opportunities we have seen in some time. But like always, we will swing trade it with stops as you should also!
Expect updates through the week.
Cheers!
Curtis.
Article Topics; Compound Trading, Swing Trading, Stock Picks, $ASM, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $JUNO, $CBMX, $OAK, $RSX, $BOFI, $SXL, $SLCS, $EOG, $NG, $TRCH, $GREK, $USOIL, $GOLD, $GLD, $SILVER, $SLV, $SPY, S&P 500, $DXY, $VIX