Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Friday January 18, 2019.
In this premarket trading edition: Earnings, $NFLX, $TSLA, $SQ, $UPL, $GEVO, Oil, SPY, VIX, BTC, Gold, Silver, DXY and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events / Platform Development / Team Work in Progress:
- Jan 18 – The swing trading articles / videos and the oil trading special reports should not be missed by our trading members this week.
- Jan 16 – New EPIC Oil Algorithm model was published (there is still minor anomalies from holiday but not significant enough to note). Swing reporting will be intensive in to earnings season with a series of mini reports (Post EIA in to Friday). The other model updates will flow and be released throughout the week.
- Trade Alerts
- Jan 18 – The trade alerts for oil are picking up (we’re winning) and the swing trade alerts will increase between this afternoon and through earnings.
- Jan 16 – You can expect swing trade alerts to start between Friday afternoon and Monday morning for this time cycle in to mid May 2019.
- Jan 16 – You can expect the machine trading in oil to pick up after EIA, the algorithm model is now past the anomalies from holiday.
- Main Trading Room
- Jan 18 – I am in session in main trading room today for open, mid day review, during actvie trade.
- Jan 16 – I am in session in main trading room today for market open, EAI, mid day review, during active trading, in futures.
- Development Team Work in Progress:
- Jan 6 – Members please review Lead Trader 2019 Trading Guidance Report (Time Cycles) & Trading Platform Updates
15 RULES to TRADING (inspired via trade coaching session I just completed, there’s more, but here’s 15 for the traders learning). I have to do this, hope it helps someone out there, here goes…
15 RULES to TRADING (inspired via trade coaching session I just completed, there's more, but here's 15 for the traders learning). I have to do this, hope it helps someone out there, here goes…
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) January 11, 2019
Premarket Reporting: Per lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day – they are a way for our team to communicate with our member clients and update market conditions when time allows).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) June 30, 2017
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
Blog / Video / Social Posts / Learn to Trade:
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) November 6, 2017
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) July 23, 2017
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) July 23, 2017
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
Jan 18 – By far one of the most important videos for day trading crude oil since our inception;
Jan 10 – DO NOT MISS THIS POST / VIDEO: How I Day Trade Crude Oil: 5 Trades 5 Wins 1.5 Hours 90 Ticks | Trading Room Video | Oil Trade Alerts
Jan 8 – A number of trading strategy posts were sent to members recently that are not listed here. Please review blog list – ask Jen for passwords if you require them.
Dec 11 – Current Trades Reviewed: Oil, SPY, VIX, NatGas, Time Cycles, Gold, Silver, DXY… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mWMFTprLqQ
Recent Educational Articles / Videos:
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Trading Plan / Watch Lists. Morning Momentum / Gaps / News / PR / IPO / SEC Filings / Earnings Stocks on Watch:
Friday Jan 18 – Mid day review will be looking at Swing Trade entry points. Crude oil has been a great week, don’t miss the post from last night – important details for daytrading crude oil. Same guidance per below from recent.
Wednesday Jan 16 – Holding DWT short in to EIA today. Post EIA expect us to be in active in to time cycle peak mid May now. Positions in swings expected between Friday afternoon and Monday premarket to start. Oil still bullish, was looking for more of a pull back but in oil you never know. EIA report today should set the tone for that pullback or not decision. NatGas trade I seem to have missed executing on. Volatility on high watch here, if oil sells off I will be short OIL, TVIX short and SPY short will all be in play short term. Dollar could spike too so I may long it short term, it is holding its 200 MA. Per previous I would then expect to flip on all those positions. It would be ideal for this to happen now in this timing because entries in equities would be lower in this scenario. We shall see.
Monday Jan 14 – Earnings season starts, looking for my swing trade set-ups to develop as we get in to the season. Machine trade model for oil posted to Discord private member server that has a channel we are watching to confirm possible reversal in trend (up). VIX and $SPY on high watch with earnings season starting. May have missed my NatGas $UGAZ long I was talking about taking. $DXY US Dollar near 200 MA support test on daily, also on watch and VIX near lower Bollinger band, $TVIX on watch.
Citi $C up a bit premarket (reported earnings), but only .65% off in premarket. On watch today per swing trading report released this morning.
See more recent premarket reports for more of my possible set-ups.
Friday Jan 11 –
On watch: Looking for a buy side signal as close to 52.60 (in crude oil) as possible for a price target of 53.52 today. Bullish scenario on FX USOIL WTI traded on CL.
We have been looking for a pull back in oil for a number of reasons (watch mid vids and reporting)… anyway, in classic oil style we have not got much of any pull backs, HOWEVER, if you review the 240 minute model you will see a time cycle peak around Jan 14, 2019 that isn’t huge but big enough to potentially cause a pull back BETWEEN TODAY and next Wednesday. This would give me opportunity to add to the DWT short position (at oil support after pull back), at start of pull back take a long VIX, long Natural Gas, short SPY or QQQ, long dollar, long possibly Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and then when oil bounces reverse all those trades.
The machine trading will now get more aggressive as the EPIC oil model is finally normaliziing after holiday trade anomalies (the software triggers on the chart, so the structure of the chart s important).
Thanks for your patience with the reporting, we’re on it, we just got in deep with the oil anomalies and this possible turn. We need to have a structured oil plan for the rest of the trading in equities ad algorithms to find the core of the move.
Swing trading reports are near done and should be flowing out within 24 hours, EPIC report also and in to next week all the other algorithms.
$TSLA ON WATCH AS $GM’S CADILLAC TO INTRODUCE EV, TAKE REINS AS CO’S LEAD EV BRAND – SI
Markets as of 7:15 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 96.10, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 52.57, Gold $GLD trading 1286.04, Silver $SLV trading 15.46, $SPY 264.06 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 3597.00, $VIX 18.2 and NatGas 3.318.
Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch:
Top Most Active Stocks in #Premarket Trading $SQQQ $TSLA $SPY $UPL $NFLX $UGAZ $GLD $HMNY $QQQ $NOK $BIOC $UWT https://marketchameleon.com/Reports/PremarketTrading/ …
40 Stocks Moving In Friday’s Pre-Market Session https://benzinga.com/z/13005824 $UPL $OZK $GEVO $VFC $TEAM $GPOR $SPWH $JBHT $CVS $ACB $PCG $NLS $PRGS $TSLA $NFLX $TIF $AXP $LLY
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) January 18, 2019
$TSLA Tesla to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7%.
Square (SQ) Introduces Free Debit Card for Businesses $SQ https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=15017236 …
$GEVO (+41.7% pre) Gevo & Avfuel Partner to Supply Sustainable Jet Fuel for Business Jets Fuel Green Event at Van Nuys Airport.
CVS, Walmart reach agreement on pharmacy contract after impasse https://reut.rs/2TYvUx7.
$UPL (+58.4% pre) Ultra Petroleum Corp. Announces Favorable Opinion for Company on Make-Whole Litigation Appeal -GN
$TYME (-8.8% pre) Tyme Technologies misleads with cancer drug data release – STAT (2/2)
$IMMU (halted pre) Immunomedics’ cancer treatment fails to win accelerated approval from the FDA – Reuters
Eli Lilly shares slide premarket on news of failed trial for sarcoma treatment.
Recent SEC Filings / Insiders:
Insider Buys Of The Week: Dish Network, Hartford Financial, Medtronic https://benzinga.com/z/12975164 $DISH $HIG $MDT
Recent IPO’s, Private Placements, Mergers:
Fiserv to acquire First Data in all-stock deal with equity value of $22 billion
Gannett’s stock soars after MNG’s unsolicited buyout bid, valuing the USA Today publisher at over $13 billion.
New Fortress Energy to offer 22.2 million shares in planned IPO, priced at $17 to $19 each.
Aurora Cannabis to buy Whistler Medical Marijuana in a $132 million stock deal.
Slack plans to public via rare direct listing in coming months–WSJ.
Netflix’s stock drop after results despite upbeat analyst calls.
CVS’s stock jumps after deal to keep Walmart participating in PBM networks.
Vans-parent VF’s stock soars after profit and sales beat, raised outlook.
Schlumberger shares rise premarket after revenue tops estimates.
$RYAAY – Ryanair lowers profit forecast
Tiffany & Co. $TIF sees FY EPS towards lower end of its previously-disclosed range https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=15019964 ….
#earnings for the week
$NFLX $C $BAC $JPM $UNH $DAL $WFC $GS $BLK $MS $AXP $AA $SJR $SLB $SNV $INFO $FRC $FAST $BK $PNC $USB $CSX $KMI $BBT $CMA $UAL $TEAM $KEY $CBSH $MTB $VFC $JBHT $SASR $STI $PRGS $FULT $HAFC $HOMB $PTE $RF $OZK $PBCT $WNS $PLXS
$AAPL $NFLX $FB $BAC $C $JPM $GE $UNH $BA $DAL $CLF $T $GS $WFC $PYPL $GOOGL $INTC $F $TWTR $MA $V $JNJ $SLB $AA $MS $BLK $AXP $ATVI $ISRG $VZ $XOM $LRCX $PG $GM $CELG $MCD $FAST $SNV $PNC $ABBV $ABT $NOK $INFO $BMY $HAL #swingtrading
#earnings season $AAPL $NFLX $FB $BAC $C $JPM $GE $UNH $BA $DAL $CLF $T $GS $WFC $PYPL $GOOGL $INTC $F $TWTR $MA $V $JNJ $SLB $AA $MS $BLK $AXP $ATVI $ISRG $VZ $XOM $LRCX $PG $GM $CELG $MCD $FAST $SNV $PNC $ABBV $ABT $NOK $INFO $BMY $HAL #swingtradinghttps://t.co/4Zv7Jukrqo
— Swing Trading (@swingtrading_ct) January 12, 2019
A look at Jan #earnings calendar.
$NFLX $BAC $BA $BBBY $KBH $SGH $STZ $MA $JPM $C $GS $JNJ $UNH $WFC $AA $LRCX $CJPRY $SLB $ABT $LEN $UNF $AKS $BMY $LW $VLO $RPM $AXP $SMPL $SNX $MSM $WYI $CMC $HELE $FAST $PHM $CSX $INFO $CALM $LNN
Trade Set-ups, Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Open and Closed Trades:
Refer to date at top left of each chart (charts can be carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded decision to decision process – when trade set-up fails cut position fast. Leg in to winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide a framework to trade (chart structure enables a trader to set stops where a trade has failed or leg in to winners and trim winners). Purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of a trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy (which should be harnessed in your rules based process).
TESLA (TSLA) Watching close premarket as it sells off, would like to see lower for another swing trade #swingtrading $TSLA
Strong Bullish Structure in Oil Trade.
Oil Trading Alerts Yesterday – Man vs. Machine, Both Winning.
Overnight futures crude oil trading alert Selling 51.07 will advise #Oil #Trading #Alerts $CL_F $US FX USOIL WTI
Overnight futures crude oil trading alert Covering 50.74 #Oil #Trading #Alerts $CL_F $US FX USOIL WTI
Screen shots from the Discord private server oil chat room (guidance and alerts I was providing members in chat room).
Oil trade since late Dec time cycle peak I was on about. $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #timecycles #oil #OOTT
When @EPICtheAlgo helps you win $CL_F $USOIL $USO $WTI #oil #trade #alerts #OOTT
Closed $DGAZ long at 86.79 (NatGas short) from 52.30. Nice trade. #swingtrading #premarket
Gold (Monthly) Structure seems to suggest near term resistance at diagonal FIB TL, yet to be seen. #GOLD $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD #swingtrading
Last trading session in crude oil trade alerts screen shot. Will be more active now that not sick and Jan 1 near. #oiltradealerts
Chewing around the edges of volatility $VIX $TVIX $UVXY Short #tradealerts #swingtrading
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 13, 2018
I love EPIC FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #alerts #algorithm #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 13, 2018
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at premarket open. Tues 4:30 price target hit perfect also from weekend reporting #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at premarket open. Tues 4:30 price target hit perfect also from weekend reporting #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT pic.twitter.com/MJwNMBOC13
— EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm (@EPICtheAlgo) December 12, 2018
Machine trading day today FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #premarket #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 11, 2018
Our machine trading was making money today, but as a human trader that was no easy trading session in oil. Even the machine trading had some cuts (small) but won over no problem. #oil #machinetrading $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO
Our machine trading was making money today, but as a human trader that was no easy trading session in oil. Even the machine trading had some cuts (small) but won over no problem. #oil #machinetrading $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO pic.twitter.com/tE6JDg8hZS
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 4, 2018
Machine trading screen shots from oil alert feed tonight. FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #Trading #Alerts #OOTT #machinetrading
We are short DWT (short oil ETN) from last week $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT #oil #trade #alerts
Volatility short TVIX trade went well. $VIX $TVIX Looking for a bounce in to Dec 5 #volatility #trading
To catch a knife 🙂 Daytrading crude oil #OOTT #oiltradealerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) November 13, 2018
Where can you find a trading setup that executes for a 150+ tick day trade in crude oil with back tested win side probability 90%. Test it and tell us we’re wrong. Member report below. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL #trading #OOTT
Where can you find a trading setup that executes for a 150+ tick day trade in crude oil with back tested win side probability 90%. Test it and tell us we're wrong. Member report below. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL #trading #OOTT https://t.co/0UeVRORgEL
— EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm (@EPICtheAlgo) October 31, 2018
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
-Shutdown solution still seems distant
-Investors get optimistic on trade
Futures, Global Markets Surge On Renewed China Stimulus And Trade Optimism
Futures, Global Markets Surge On Renewed China Stimulus And Trade Optimism https://t.co/EGRFVsLcOS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 18, 2019
Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.4m b/d in 2019 as a boost from lower fuel prices counters slowing economic activity, the IEA says https://bloom.bg/2FIqO4f #OOTT
— EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm (@EPICtheAlgo) January 18, 2019
Crude has held on to its rally above $50 a barrel for over a week. #Oil #OOTT $CL_F $WTI https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/oil-set-for-third-weekly-gain-as-opec-cuts-counter-u-s-output
BRENT’s front-month futures contract is back in backwardation, as OPEC output cuts and other supply disruptions start to remove the anticipated surplus in the oil market:
BRENT's front-month futures contract is back in backwardation, as OPEC output cuts and other supply disruptions start to remove the anticipated surplus in the oil market: pic.twitter.com/4P5GCRyuet
— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) January 18, 2019
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channel and at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $UPL $VFC $OZK $SPWW $EGAN $ACRX $TEAM $GPOR $DGAZ $STI $CLDX $TRQ $SE $PCG $CGC $SLB $VIPS $UXIN
(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List :
(3) Other Watch-List:
(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWT, $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.
(5) Recent Upgrades: $SPB $KMB $CNP $EW $SPWH $VLO $CVX $CNP $CBSH $ACH $MDRX $ANET $FISV $IQV $E $TKC $LXFT
Cronos Group initiated with an Outperformer at CIBC $CRON $CGC http://dlvr.it/QwyZRY
Canopy Growth initiated with an Outperformer at CIBC $CGC http://dlvr.it/QwyZQT
Citi Upgrades Tenaris S.A. $TS to Buy http://streetinsider.com/r/15020283
BOFA reiterated BUY on $NFLX – PT $450
pt raised to $420 from $400 at Citi
pt raised to $415 from $400 @ Canaccord
pt raised to $400 from $380 at Stifel
pt raised to $425 from $410 at Oppenheimer
raised to $450 from $430 at Morgan Stanley
(6) Recent Downgrades: $BVN $KMX $IMMU $PPG $DK $IPG $LN $EEX $CASA $SIG $IAG $KEY $X $NLS $SASR $LKQ $LOXO $ED $KEY
$APTX PT lowered lowered to $18 from $32 at BMO. Maintains Outperform.
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $BTC (@CryptotheAlgo) $WTI (@), $VIX (@), $SPY (@), $GLD (@), $SLV (@), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index). Our Swing Trading Twitter feed is found here: https://twitter.com/swingtrading_ct. Our lead trader Twitter feed is here @curtmelonopoly
Article Topics: Premarket, Stocks, Trading Plan, Trade Alerts, Trading Room, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Earnings, $NFLX, $TSLA, $SQ, $UPL, $GEVO, Oil, SPY, VIX, BTC, Gold, Silver, DXY