How to Trade an Oil Price Sell-Off in to Futures Settlement at 2:30 PM EST for Reversal.

This Reversal (Snap-Back) Crude Oil Trade Provided a 190 Point Range for Our Oil Trading Room Traders.

One of the best ways to increase your oil trading profit is with reversal trading. Crude oil can be difficult to trade, so knowing where reversals in price are likely to occur (support areas of charting) greatly helps a trader with winning trade signals.

A Warning! In a reversal trade it is important to manage your stops, bias, trade size in accordance to your account size.

The example below is of a 30 contract size (possible) oil trading account used by our software EPIC V3.1.1.

I personally didn’t take the trade because I was tired and I had a few other reasons. But it cost me some excellent profit because the price of oil then reversed and rallied near 200 ticks – it would have been a great win for me.

Some of our traders in our oil trading room did get the win so that was great, so I learned a lesson for next time.

The biggest lesson being that when EPIC V3.1.1 alerts an oil trade and the signal is “in-play” it is best for me to get with it and take the trade because the software has been winning non stop since it’s “black swan” code updates.

The oil charts below are models developed by our trading team that are proprietary to our oil trade alert and trading room members, however, if you know how to properly chart conventionally you can also take advantage of this set-up.

Let’s start with the set-up for the possible reversal trade on the one hour chart model. The one hour oil chart suggests that a turn in price, or a topping, is near (refer to the curved grey arch on the chart).

More specifically to this trade set up, the yellow trend lines (algorithmic trend lines) provide for a possible area on the charting for intra-day support in a possible sell-off scenario in to futures settlement at 2:30 PM on Thursday May 7, 2020.

The alert went out to the oil trading room and trade alert feed as follows;

You can see on the oil chart below that price was crashing at 12:18:17 EST time (or 12:18 PM) so the possible set-up for a bounce after oil settled at 2:30 PM was setting up.

If you’re thinking of swinging crude oil for a bounce, we’re getting closer to support areas.

trade, price, support, oil

If you’re thinking of swinging crude oil for a bounce, we’re getting closer to support areas. #oilswingtrading

Intra-day time cycle on crude oil is 1:45 P.M. for a possible bounce (reversal), careful with expecting VWAP to hit with some funds turning short.

The chart below and guidance provided to subscribers was also that at 1:45 PM a time cycle intra-day was possibly at an inflection point (or peak / bottom) and this was reason to be on high alert.

day trade, time cycle, crude, oil

Intra-day time cycle on crude oil 145 for a possible bounce, careful with expecting VWAP to it with some funds turning short #oiltradealerts

Screen capture of oil trading alert feed telling oil trading room position started.

Then at 2:44, so 14 minutes after crude oil officially settled for the day the alert went out that we were opening our trade position long at 8/30 size at 24.67 and the screen image below shows some of the other alerts and comments as the trade was going well and in a winning position.

Long 8/30 24.67 FX USOIL WTI trade on CL — EPIC.

oil trade alert, trading room, open position

Screen capture of oil trading alert feed telling oil traders position started – Long 8-30 24.67 FX USOIL WTI trade on CL — EPIC.

Screen capture image of oil trading room when I alerted the trade position opened and discussing trading strategies.

One of the things we do in the oil trading room is provide charting and as much trade strategy guidance for our subscribers as possible.

This image below is a screen shot of the Discord room where we’ll chatter and share ideas and there is also a live mic and charting trading room where I walk our traders through the trades on voice broadcast live and share the charts we are using – both run at same time..

oil trading room, trade alert

Screen capture image of oil trading room when I alerted the trade position opened and discussing trading strategies.

If the trade works, the price target would be Friday 3:00 PM EST ish for 29.00 ish.

The guidance provided to the trading room after we entered the trade was the price targets and time of the targets possibly coming in to affect. The chart below shows an arrow that provides our traders with a trajectory of trade should the plan being working.

price targets, oil, trade

If the trade works, the price target would be Friday 300 PM EST ish for 29 ish #oiltradingstrategies #swingtrading

The crude oil one hour chart with symmetry time cycles has been an amazing model, working very well, details on video.

The image below shows the 1 hour algorithmic model and the symmetries in crude oil trade, time cycles and price targets. The reference to “the video” is that we record all trading sessions and make them available to our subscribers for $STUDY and review.

swing trading, time cycles, crude oil

The crude oil one hour chart with symmetry time cycles has been an amazing model, working very well, details on video #swingtrading #oil

The Live Oil Trading Room Raw Video Feed

At 1:12:40 on the video timer is where the oil trade starts, you can see and hear the actual trade guidance for the signals I am providing our traders as the trade sets-up.

There isn’t a lot of trade guidance on mic because much of it was provide in advance in the trading room and on alert feeds, but you can idea of how it works in the trading room on the video. There is also a time stamp at near bottom right of screen in the video on the chart itself.

The Chart Below Shows Trade Long Entries (green arrows) and Take Profit Areas Selling (red arrows).

Crude Oil Trade Alerts dot plotted on 1 minute grid chart of EPIC V3.1.1 trade from oil trading room earlier today.

oil trading room, trade, sequence

Crude Oil Trade Alerts dot plotted on 1 minute grid chart of EPIC V3.1.1 trade from oil trading room earlier today. #oiltradealerts

The trade on the 60 min symmetrical time cycle model (white arrow), long position after sell-off in to daily settlement.

1 hour, oil, chart

The trade on the 60 min symmetrical time cycle model (white arrow), long position after sell-off in to daily settlement #oiltradealerts

The reversal trade works really well for oil traders as long as you manage the trade size according to your account size and be sure to stop out if you are on the wrong side of the trade.

Oil can trend down or up for weeks so staying on the wrong side of an oil trade can cost you your whole trading account.

So if you know your areas of support on the most dominant time frames (in this instance the 1 hour charting) and you execute your long trade after it looks like the sell-off has stopped then it becomes simply managing the ebb and flow of trade according to your personal style thereafter.

BUT IF IT FAILS, my best suggestion to you is to close the trade sooner than later.

I’ve also written other articles on intra-day reversal oil trades – they are more in-depth and a tad technical, but if you want to dig deeper in to this topic here are a few recent articles:

My tweet summarizing the oil trade on my personal Twitter feed (shows alert screen shots);

When crude oil sold off in to 2:30 settlement yesterday, EPIC V3.1.1 machine protocol went in deep long for swing trade, I didn’t follow… EPIC got it Direct hitFireBow and arrow I didn’t – in hindsight, likely cause I was tired. Good lesson.

#OTTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI #OilTradeAlerts

In the tweet below, I was explaining that oil traders would want to be focusing on trades that are on the outside extreme ranges in price.

The reason for this is that oil recently rallied off lows and we have a time cycle and price targets that see oil topping near – term. When oil starts to top or bottom in a wider time-frame it is then best to trade the range of trade on lower time-frames (such as the 1 minute, 5, 15 or 30 minute charting) until the larger trend is formed.

Oil traders, they’ll want to take the trades on the extremes the next two weeks #OOTT $CL_F $USO The whippy extremes will provide the best risk reward for oil traders.

So that’s the reversal snap-back trade in crude oil futures that you can either consider as a day trade or an intra-week swing trade. There are of course many other considerations we use (our software has over 9000 rules in its instructions), but for the purposes of a human trader, the above article should help get you started.

We endeavor to develop the best winning oil trading alerts and oil trading room service for oil traders.

Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].

Thank you.

Curt

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Article Topics; oil, strategies, reversal, trade, swing trading, day trading, crude oil,  oil trading room, oil trading alerts. 

 


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Post Market Wrap Up Trading Day Comments “The World is Opening Up Again”

#daytrading #swingtrading #oiltrading

RE: Post market report with VIDEO covering trade reviews on day trading, swing and oil trading alert feeds, Volatility, Oil, SPY, GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN, APPLE, TESLA, AMAZON, TWITTER, FACEBOOK, PAGER DUTY, CHEGG, OVX, GOOGLE and more.

My first post market review on cell phone recorded on YouTube, tomorrow I’ll try the camera on my phone sideways and see if I can get a larger field of view, if not maybe I’ll hobble around with my GoPro in future.

I’ve just been shooting these videos on Twitter but I’ll start to post them to Twitter, YouTube Facebook etc. Show folks where I am in my travels while I do a quick Market Wrap Up each day after our day trading session in the trading room. Sorry about the wind.

So it looks like the world is opening up, Florida was looking normal again, busy place now again.

In my trader premarket trading note this morning could see the run up coming on the day so I sent out a second premarket guidance note before market open.

We had the move dialed in and were ready for a great day of daytrading and swing trade positioning and management of booking profits.

Market Outlook

We got the bounce today we were looking for, we expected markets Monday to be soft and Tuesday to bounce and we got it.

Swing trade alert feed below shows guidance comments Monday morning toward general intra day outlook;

“General market view – I just surveyed the best 10 traders I know, all agreed on equities – watching only (likely pop Tuesday), I am concerned about possible drop in AMZN symmetry and on oil bullish to 25 – 30, trading 22.23 FX USOIL WTI.”

https://twitter.com/SwingAlerts_CT/status/1257326486056558593

Swing trade, market outlook, alert

General market view – watching only (likely pop Tuesday), concerned about possible drop AMZN symmetry, oil bullish to 25-30 trading 22.23 FX USOIL WTI. #swingtradealerts

Crude Oil

Oil trade is on a tear, we had alerted to the swing trade and oil trade alerts feed we were expecting the next leg up for 25.00 – 30.00 and it hit 26.62 today (so far) on FX USOIL WTI. API is on deck next here with EIA tomorrow.

Crazy bullish run. We seen a few day trade set-ups today, I got one at regular USA market open and the second set-up alerted to the oil trade alerts feed was a prime set-up.

I wrote an article on the oil day trade set-up (click here) based on a 200 MA buy trigger on the one minute chart, that ended up being the best intra-day buy / continuation point in oil. The price of oil rallied 147 points to a high of day at time of writing 26.62 and looks like it is about to break higher. The article has screen shots of the oil trade alert feed and charting and a step by step how to trade the strategy.

Alert from the oil trade alert premium feed below:

“On the 1 min time frame 25.15 200 MA is attractive test for a crude oil day trade pop up scalp – trading 25.68. #oiltradealerts.”

oil trade alert, one minute, strategy

Oil trade alert premium feed 1 minute time frame 25.15 200 MA attractive test crude oil day trade scalp #oiltradealerts

Tech Leaders

Apple, Intel, Twitter we’re doing well in on our Swing Trading Alerts platform (members can refer to the charts).

Facebook, Google and Amazon I’ve sat out. I’ve always done well in all three but Amazon has a symmetry issue for a possible sell off in to beginning of September that I don’t like and the Tech leaders have other geo political black swan potential that I outlined in detail on the Swing Trading Alert Premium feed that our subscribers should review.

I may still take trades in $FB $GOOGL $AMZN but any of the tech leaders I will hold only with hard stops, again, the explanation is on the swing trade alert feed.

Gold, Silver, Bitcoin.

The swing trades, alerts and chart models have been running well in Gold, Silver and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is stronger because of the BTC specific halving event and the 1200.00 cheques from the Fed.

Silver continues to struggle, I’ve explained to members – I think the most recent explanation for this expectation for Silver was on the weekend Swing Trading $STUDY videos, I go in to an explanation there. Silver is on the first of four videos from that $STUDY session.

And Gold is expected to be moderately strong and continue to trade well within the structure chart model that has been on point for many months.

Again, look at weekend $STUDY videos for details, charts and trading plan(s) for Bitcoin, Gold and Silver.

Volatility $VIX $OVX

Volatility is getting close to support / but triggers, we have a plan to accumulate in to the end of August 2020 that the Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY videos review.

A warning toward volatility surprises between here and election. Volatility, tech leaders and the whole market.

Miscellaneous Other Swing Trades.

TESLA I am shorting at key resistance points. This is my current nemesis.

CHEGG has been a payday swing trade over and over, today was quite a run up.

Pager Duty (PD) swing trade has been decent.

TGTX swing trade paid big on my 10% remaining runner today.

Apple (AAPL) had a big day, we continue to do very well with Apple swing trades, the model is very precise that we use. 

Many more.

Daytrading Alert Feed.

Looking to get that new day trading alert feed rocking because I want maxed out Swing Trading positioning for personal best returns in the next two time cycles in the markets in to end of August, through election and thereafter. Basically I want to be able to size in to themes in to the election and the best way to do that is to have the swing trading models all firing also on a daytrading time-frame for the highest possible return on the trades.

How About that Mortality Rate?

The End of the World Didn’t Happen!

Looks like it wasn’t the end of the world after-all (at least not this round), so I’m going to get some new free diving gear this weekend and start hitting it deep again next week. A pic of my front yard below a friend sent me today.

2020 Trader’s Summit.

The minute we’re all off lock down I will be announcing our 2020 trader’s summit. Don’t miss this event in Cabarete Dominican Republic. This is 3 days of 12 hours a day deep study and trading with myself and our lead trader group.

Members get first pick on the in person seats (10). Price is 1999.00 and current members will be discounted 50%. If you can’t make it you can attend online (25 person maximum).

Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Sessions.

Do not miss these swing trade study sessions, for 100.00 we serve up 10 session blocks of 4 hours of weekly deep trade set-up study. If you don’t 10x 100x or more return on that investment you should quit trading.

Weekly Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Webinars 7-11 PM.

Prepare for Trading Week Set-Ups (Trades On Watch).

100.00/10 Weeks (40 hrs of study) members 50.00. Video provided if you can’t attend live.

$CL_F $USO $WTI $SPY $VIX $GLD $GC_F $SLV $BTC $USD $DXY

Written reports will be out tonight for the follow up on the Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY session. Also new set ups, chart models and trading strategies coming for other new trades in play.

And don’t forget, pins can be pulled and likely will – stay awake and use stops if need be (see screen shots in tweets below)

Peace and best ,

Curt

Article topics; post market, market, review, trades, day trading, swing trading, oil trading, alerts, Volatility, Oil, SPY, GOLD, SILVER, Bitcoin, APPLE, TESLA, AMAZON, TWITTER, Facebook, Pager Duty, CHEGG, OVX, GOOGLE 


Part Three of What They Won’t Tell You and How We Daytrade Crude Oil Against the Machines

“And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures.”

In part 2 of this series on day trading crude oil, we left you here (the chart below), price of oil had moved through the structured chart model and had taken out the one price target before the ultimate target at the top of the structure. At each leg in this recent oil rally from lows I’ve shown you in this series the chart model we are using on the one hour time frame (we use all time frames). I also provided screen shots of the oil trade alerts, oil trading room, charting, guidance and various other commentary we provide our clients.On April 30 at 12:01:49 (date stamp on chart below) my commentary was that crude oil had met the second to last or final price target in the structure and that tomorrow (Thursday) we could expect oil to continue rally in to the ultimate price target prediction at 1:00 PM.  

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts

As this was happening I was tweeting about it live on my public facing personal Twitter feed, below is a link to the thread:

AI school in session

#OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO

its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they’re in control,

so the game is find the time-frame and use the model they’re using, but it’s all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that’s oil trade in today’s world #OOTT $CL_F

and now the climax

Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they’ll have to go alone #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO

target met

Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out #OOTT $CL_F $USO #machinetradingoil

school done for the day, have a good one

peace

i know, i know, there are no crystal balls in the markets

none of that just happened

#OOTT $CL_F $USO

And then in to the time cycle peak the next afternoon, this happened…

“And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures.”

Price target hit right on time for the right price, perfectly in to oil settlement at 2:30 PM on Thursday.

NOW, it is important to note that the chart model was originally calling for the 1:00 PM one hour candle and not the 2:00 candle, but if you look at the chart below the time cycle peak (noted with vertical blue dashed line on chart) moved over to the 2:00 timing. This happens with Trading View charting, the timing slowly moves over a period of days.

So the hit was not only perfect to the timing and price but hit at exactly 2:30 which is half way exactly through the 2:00 one hour candle. It couldn’t have been a better alerted price target hit.

And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures #oiltradealerts

And there you have it, the power of machine AI trading in crude oil futures #oiltradealerts

What made it even more exciting for us in the oil trading room was that price had started to come off strong as it neared the time cycle and I thought (as I know other traders did) ah okay there we go we’re not going to hit the price target, and then right before 2:30 the price of crude oil took off in grand style and hit the target – price rallied 300 points in about 30 minutes.

Machine programs were identified and the volatile rally ran up and didn’t stop until the price target was hit, right on time. It was a crazy day trading session in crude oil.

“AI’s just finished their task.”

The comment from one observer on my Twitter feed made me laugh:)

“That’s fucking incredible.”

So we got a rally from 9.90s to 19.60s and it was not only strong but very structured and we called it days in advance.

How does this benefit a trader? Using time cycles and structured chart models help an oil trader (swing trader and day trader) significantly with strategy for bias of trade size, risk management, directional bias of price in trend and more.

Some options traders in our group really like this work. Swing traders like this for trimming profit at all the decisions along the way as the charts are marked for support and resistance areas of trade. How you trade it is up to you.

When we alert the set-up and our trade entries we do our best to provide our day traders and swing traders with guidance to directional bias, support and resistance areas of trade to watch and more. But ultimately it is a much different thing to run the technical analysis than it is to trade it, or even code software to trade the price of oil.

Trading isn’t easy, especially something like crude oil, but with the right critical thinking and best in class chart models to form a solid trade strategy it does help keep you on the winning side.

My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.

Any questions please send me a note via email [email protected].

Thank you.

Curt

Part Two of this article here: “Excuse Me, While I Kiss The Sky”. Part 2 Insider’s Look at How We Daytrade Crude Oil (w/ real-time alert screen shots from oil trading room).

Part One of this article here: What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Article Topics; daytrading, crude oil, oil, strategies, trading room, alerts, price targets, swing trading

 


Note to our Traders: Weekly Scheduling Notes in Advance of Trading

RE: Update to Previous Email – Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Webinars, Live Trading Room Broadcasts, Real-Time Swing and Oil Trade Alerts, Oil Machine Trading, Newsletter Reporting.

Well, the time cycle we are in is starting to heat up and this is the time to be awake, this week should see us start to lean in to our swing trade positioning and I expect a very active trading week in crude oil.

Below are some scheduling and development notes for our members / traders.

Internet Infrastructure.

As a result of the development work we do our small development team is in different countries and I happen to be at the beach void of first world.

When I travel (which is regularly) internet infrastructure has to be prepared and every single time we end up having to re-do what the locals have prepared for us in advance.

In this specific instance I had to change locations for security cautionary reasons due to the Corona lock-down.

I will note also that someday every possibility will be covered off on our internet preparation checklists and nothing will get past us in advance of me arriving to a location, nevertheless once again we are dealing with it.

BUT I am happy to report we have now have a 100% solution at my current location and complete resolution (installed) will be May 10th at the latest and more probably this week. Until then, below is how we will handle our trading services.

Sunday Swing Trade Webinar $STUDY.

I will only do the Weekly Swing Trade Watch List $STUDY by way of newsletter reporting and alert feeds and not live for now (until internet install is complete), working on the current reporting for this weeks trade set-ups on watch now for distribution.

At the end of last week many of the trades and markets started to firm up and themes are starting to develop. As a result the swing trade alerts started to increase in frequency as we neared the end of the week so you can expect this to be a busy week.

Be sure to read the recent swing trade articles and watch the newsletters and alerts flow carefully here.

Soon we will restart Sunday $STUDY webinars live when final internet install is complete.

Live Trading Broadcast Room.

The markets will be active this week so I have no choice but to run with what we have, hopefully they have the install done sooner than later. If we crash in the broadcast room we crash and I will just re-boot every-time.

We don’t have a choice we have to run with it. The time cycle is getting very involved – trades are “in play” and we have to go with it as it is. 

The Swing Trading set-ups are starting to get prime and our Oil Trading Machine Trade software is firing.

I will be in the live trading broadcast room during regular market hours and any other time trade becomes active in overnight futures or in pre or post markets.

Jen will be crediting Live Trading Room member accounts for any down-time.

Machine Trading.

You can expect the crude oil machine trading to be active now that EPIC V3.1.1 black swan and shorting trend updates are complete and it looks as though oil may be getting somewhat structured again after it’s “epic” collapse to negative territory.

The swing trading platform is being coded one set-up at a time as I am updating chart models, with two hundred equities we follow and code this will take time.

Alerts.

All alerts (oil trade alerts and swing trading alerts) will be as normal and will be sent out. Worst scenario we have internet back-up systems, the internet at this point only really affects the live broadcasting in the trading room.

One quick note, very soon I will be taking the swing trade set-ups and moving them down to daytrading time-frames also for intraday positioning as we build larger swing positions in the time cycle trajectory of trade – as such, we will be opening our daytrading alert feed again at that time (within 10 days at most) and swing trade members will get free access to that also.

Newsletters.

The swing trade and oil trade newsletter(s) will go out as usual and will actually be more timely and regular now that the Black Swan event is taking less of my time (time that was needed to understand the event to bias the trading going forward).

More specifically you can expect the swing newsletter flow to start prior to Monday premarket and the crude oil newsletter flow to start sometime Monday (I would like to see oil trade in futures prior to determining my bias on crude oil and invest the time in updating all the chart models also).

But the trade alerts will run live for both, if the trade is there, we’re go time.

Remember, if you need anything please email, if we haven’t responded to a previous just hit us again (it can get busy during market hours to say the least).

Peace and best,

Curt

Above all, keep your bias in check and remember the ranges can be very, very big in to these time cycles.

https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/1254449744836988928

 

 


Part 2 of 2: Swing Trade $STUDY Review on ARCUS BIOSCIENCES (RCUS) Swing Trade Alert Trading Strategy.

“Down Trending Resistance Trend Line Break-out Swing Trade”. 

Below there are so many secrets to our swing trading success, in this article we look at the following areas of trading discipline for your trading plan:

  • Determining bias according to market time-cycles,
  • How to scan for swing trading set-ups,
  • How to determine price extensions for realistic price targets,
  • Support and resistance diagonal trend-lines, horizontal trend-lines, Fibonacci levels,
  • How to manage execution of the swing trade set-up,
  • How to manage trading stops, trade sizing, ebb and flow trade executions at support and resistance.

Part 2 of this analysis (below) is a Premium Member Only article and Part 1 can be found here;

Swing Trade Alerts Review: Traders $STUDY Guide “Trading Down Trend-Line Break-Out” ARCUS BIOSCIENCES Set-Up (Unlocked – Part 1 of 2)

Determining Time Cycle Bias for Your Trades.

Recently I wrote a few articles on the topic of time cycles in the markets using the Volatility (VIX) structured time cycles, this is a great place to start when determining first your bias of being bullish or bearish. In other words, should you be more focused on swing trades to the long or short side?

You can find Part 1 of the two part article here: How to Swing Trade Volatility $VIX Time-Cycles (UNLOCKED PT 1): Achieve Higher Gains in Stocks, Commodities, Indices, Crypto, Currencies and Theme Trades.

If the trajectory of market volatility is down (compressed) and you are more confident that volatility will be lower as you approach the next time cycle inflection then in most cases you would be bullish equities – this of course is just one example.

Alternatively you would be bias to the down-side for trading volatility so you may short $TVIX in this instance.

There are many ways to take advantage of the time cycles with various swing trades from Indices, Currencies, Crypto, Sectors, Stocks and more.

Just because the volatility is expected to rise or fall doesn’t mean however this should be the only determining factor when choosing theme trade set-ups, below is an example of just that with the ARCUS stock trade.

First, lets look at how stock scanning works.

How to Scan For Stock Swing Trading Set-Ups.

Good stock technical analysis knows before the news hits more often than not what the likely trade on each stock will be.

Technical analysis knows before the news hits because the stock will start to provide “tells” within the trade action of the stock and various technical points become clear.

So if you can know the TA of a specific stock better than most you have an advantage over other traders at all times because you can usually be ahead of the main part of the move.

Anyone, even the best fundamental traders would do better if they were also experts at technical analysis.

If the technical structure of the chart is suggesting a bullish move for example, you can then start to take small entries and build a position in expectation of a move.

The technical “tells” develop when insiders know something about upcoming news or even as geopolitical narratives are changing.

And then as you start to see specific technical trade patterns set-up in more and more equities you will find that this is a manifestation of the expert traders all beginning to bias their trades toward a theme usually within a sector, whether it be for a technical reason or a geo-political reason or perhaps some other fundamental or market sentiment reason.

If you get in “the pocket” right, you will find many set-ups during a period of time that will be almost identical and will provide excellent returns one after another.

This is what happened with our trading of the technical set-up in RCUS, many others were very similar during this time period in the markets and our returns increased rapidly.

I keep it simple and use Trading View for my scans. 

On any given day, usually sometime after lunch I will open Trading View and click on the fire emblem on top right side of screen – this is your hot-lists of hot stocks on the day (see screen shot of my Trading View below). You can set the scanner in Trading View for various levels and parameters. I scan the running stocks with large gains, the losers and the OTC markets.

scanning, stocks, swing trading

I will open Trading View and click on the fire emblem on top right side of screen – this is hot stocks on day.

Then I simply open each chart (primarily scanning the hot stocks on the day) and I start with the weekly time-frame.

I’m looking for chart history or patterns of trade, chart memory or some semblance of chart history with some order. The simpler the chart patterns the better. Anyway, as you learn all the different set-ups this gets much easier and faster.

Every financial instrument I trade I make sure that it has a structure, some order is required or your trading edge is not increased.

When I find a chart set-up I like I open the chart and take a look at it on various time-frames and consider how to trade the stock, price targets and various support and resistance levels.

Then I look at things like incoming volume, company news, sector themes, geopolitical type things, look at insider buying or selling and various other research.

During the period of time we took the swing trade in ARCUS the trend-line resistance break-out trade was happening regularly and was providing excellent returns for 2 – 6x and even more in some cases wins.

When I Used the Scanner and Isolated the ARCUS Swing Trade Set-Up It Was Yet Another Trend-line Resistance Set-Up That Was Likely to Explode.

Below is the chart I found when scanning, it shows clearly the trend-line resistance set-up. The chart below is from one of the earlier swing trade alerts we sent out to members for this set-up. You can see the spike through the trend-line resistance (which occurred after the original alert). 

You can clearly see the down-sloping trend-line in the chart on the alert.

This set-up was on high alert because this specific trade set-up was hitting one after another, if this was not the case I wouldn’t have been so keen on taking these trades.

you want to be where the wolf pack is

It is the theme that is important, you want to be where the wolf pack is, where all the other winning traders are. Just a winning set-up isn’t enough. Just a news event or a fundamental set up on its own is not the optimal scenario, you want to be where the flow is. This is critical.

Swing trade, alert, review, set-up

This chart swing trade strategy (setup) late 2019 early 2020 was found on scans regularly for big trader wins #swingtradealerts

And then as the trade progressed (after alerting the swing trade sometime earlier) the structure of trade was clear and it was just a matter of trading risk in ebb and flow (see chart below). 

It is important to note that we cannot alert every pull back and add and trim, it isn’t possible, what we do is get our members started in a swing trade and then endeavor to alert the key trades (especially key areas of resistance) as it progresses. Our trader’s platform (automation for alerts) will solve this manpower issue, but really every trader should be planning their sizing and support and resistance adds and trims for profit based on their own account risk, risk tolerance, style and more. If you are just blindly following another trader this will not work for you.

ARCUS BIO (RCUS) in bullish structure, decent action considering market this week, continuation for us $RCUS

ARCUS BIO (RCUS) in bullish structure, decent action considering market this week, continuation for us $RCUS

Charting Price Extensions for Price Targets and Timing.

This can be more art than science and your price extensions and price targets may change as the price or timing of the stock price movements move along.

In the chart below you will see diagonal white arrows (3 of them). The angle is just a reflection of the down-slope (a mirror of the angle). The length of the price extension is simply a mirror of the down-slope trend from previous. So each of the 3 arrows trending up are equal in duration and price.

These are a simple way of taking a shot at the most probable price extensions.

One key note here is that often you will get 1.5 extensions or 3. Why I don’t know. If you look at the chart below that is how I determined my price target from 15.00 to 30.00 and in last weeks trade the price target was hit early.

You will also notice (in blue on chart) I drew in an Elliott Impulse Wave, but I do that more for fun to see if I can tell the exact future of the play, you can see in this instance I was close, but the bulls were more aggressive than I even thought they would be.

Swing trade chart with price extensions, price targets, timing, Fibonacci, support and resistance levels of trade.

Swing trade chart with price extensions, price targets, timing, Fibonacci, support and resistance levels of trade.

Support and resistance diagonal trend-lines, horizontal trend-lines, Fibonacci levels.

In the chart above the diagonal trend-lines (charted in advance of trend-lines being there) are determined by taking the down trending price action of prior and extending the the tops of each lower high as the stock traded down in trend. the angle of the trend-lines was simply determined by historical trade.

The horizontal trend-lines (thin grey ones on the chart) were determined by simply drawing horizontal rays at the highs in the previous downtrend then duplicating to create a grid. These are not that important, I use them to see if there is a grid to be had. Why? Because I’m looking for order or structure.

And then the Fibonacci levels are simply done using your Fibonacci retracement drawing tool between the key support (or bottom of chart) and the price extension top. And then you copy and paste it up for each key leg in possible future trade. I always chart the low and high as horizontal key support and run them straight across horizontally on the chart as grey or green as these represent key areas of support and resistance.

How to Swing Trade It – manage execution of the swing trade set-up: Starter positioning, trading stops, trade sizing, ebb and flow trade executions at support and resistance.

Usually, when price breaks the trend-line resistance to the upside this is your trigger to be at least on watch for your initial entry.

You need to determine how many entries you are prepared to take. Hopefully it is more than one and preferably up to 10. Here is why;

When price breaks out upside the trend-line you want to be able to take at least a starter right away because most traders will wait until price returns to the previous resistance now support for the test of support and then go.

Some will even wait for it to bounce and get higher than the previous candle. All methods are fine but if you’re in it to win it then I would suggest taking 1/10 size at each of those three triggers I just explained. 

Why? Because sometimes price doesn’t come back to you. The stronger the theme, the stronger the market, the stronger the stock set-up the less chance it’s coming back to you and then you’re chasing it.

Now if you’re in 3/10 size or 30% size and your trade breaks down, you’re down on your trade but if you are winning 80% or better you can lose 10% 2 out of 10 times and win 30% or more 8 out of 10 times.

In the ARCUS example price never came back.

I look at every trade like a chess board, the more dot plots or entries and trims of profit the better, this is how we’re coding the 200 equities to trade under the machine trading program and how we’re coding the trader’s digital platform so members of our swing trade alerts will be able to see this real time. Until then, there is myself and three staff managing the numerous trades in various equities along with coding, alerts, newsletter publications and various other duties – hence the reason for coding automation.

Now, in the ARCUS example above you would have taken your starter 10 – 20% in size and it didn’t come back, what it did is it hit the first key resistance and then came back.

AT THAT RESISTANCE you need to trim 50% of your profit and then add to the trade at key supports in bits until it bounces and then continue with taking profits along the way at each key resistance.

Managing your trade size is critical. If you’re only going to be a one hit wonder, taking one entry for the win then you need to learn how to bring your charting down to a daytrading time frame so that you can execute your position on a lower time-frame of charting like a 5, 15 or 30 minute chart. I have an article coming on this discipline but in the meantime if you need to know how I do this ask me for a coaching session and I’ll show you.

Setting your stops is based on many things and this is why I don’t like publishing alerts with stops. This is determined by your experience (newer traders have to take more cuts because they don’t know what a prime set up is) so newer traders have to use hard stops religiously, I don’t because I know I can dot plot my way out of any trade as long as the stock isn’t destroyed by some black swan event.

In a black swan (market wide) I don’t worry because I’m in structured strong set-ups 90% of the time. If it’s not a strong set-up I’ll usually alert that or if its risky etc.

newer traders have to use hard stops religiously, I don’t because I know I can dot plot my way out of any trade as long as the stock isn’t destroyed by some black swan event

All of our trades we are sizing adds at support and trimming at resistance areas. There are many things that determine this also, such as market time cycles, market sentiment, sector sentiment, perhaps the technical set up is no longer being run by the bulls and many other factors.

False break-outs happen so you need to be prepared to take a loss, but when you get better at being able to determine key set-ups for all the reasons above and more you won’t be as concerned about that.

Other considerations technically speaking;

Most traders will wait for the current chart candle to close beyond the down-sloping trend-line resistance so they have a confirmed break-out, but remember, sometimes this won’t happen and a really bullish stock will just leave you in the dust.

Most traders will take their initial long starter position in the trade when the stock price has retraced back near or at the original trend-line, but again, this does not always happen and you can get left behind.

Most traders will set their stop just beyond failure of the trend-line but this can cause a trader’s account balance to be dwindled due to death by a thousand cuts.

The secret here is to not be most traders.

In this game if you are like most you will have like most (at best) returns, around 15% a year if you are lucky.

The traders that consistently post returns of 3, 4, 5 x or more per year are using a strategy that most do not.

What is that?

How did Wayne Gretzky explain how he played hockey? He had a knack at knowing where the puck was going to be so he went there.

“Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.”

— Wayne Gretzky

Same thing here.

Below is one of many of my rants on the subject, on my personal twitter feed;

If you get good at what I am describing above you will always know in advance (with high probability) when the price of the stock is going to move that you are trading, so manage the risk between where it is and where it is going like a chess board and you will see returns of 3, 4, 5 x or more per year.

Any questions email me anytime at [email protected].

Thanks

Curt

 

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Article Topics; swing trading, swing trade review, study, stocks, alerts, set-ups, patterns, break-outs, themes, support, resistance, trendlines, sizing, stops, risk, technical analysis, Fibonacci, price targets, price extensions, strategy.


A Review of a Recent Swing Trade Alert for a Big Win in ARCUS BIOSCIENCES (RCUS) for our Swing Trading Members. Part 1 of 2 (Unlocked). 

The set-up review below is the “Down Trending Resistance Trend Line Break-out Swing Trade”. 

Part 1 is a public facing “unlocked” article that sets the stage for the technical set-up, how it was alerted, the conclusion of the main meat of the trade and some commentary on how to improve your swing trading win rate and return on investment.  

Part 2 explains in depth how to scan for these set-up patterns, how to establish your price extensions for realistic price targets for your trading plan, support and resistance, trend-lines, Fibonacci levels, how to manage your stops, trade sizing, ebb and flow your trade executions at support and resistance and much more.

Part 2 of this analysis is a Premium Member Only article and can be found here:

Protected: Swing Traders $STUDY Guide “Trading Down Trend-Line Break-Outs” ARCUS BIOSCIENCES Set-Up (Premium Part 2 of 2) #swingtradingreviews

First, below is a post to our swing trading (public side) Twitter feed that shows one of the earlier tweets alerting the swing trade (from our swing trade alert service) and also one of the later alerts advising traders to trim profits soon as earnings are this week for the ARCUS stock.

“This swing trade strategy (chart setup) late 2019 early 2020 was found on scans regularly for themed big trader wins.

“Swing Trading Alert to take profit on 2x hit on technical set-up that occurred during time cycle over and over for 2-6x plus hits”

#swingtradealerts $RCUS”

Next below is a post from my personal Twitter feed explaining in a little more detail how traders can $STUDY swing trade alert reviews and catalogue set-ups for their own trading repertoire.

Running with the wolf pack is important in trading, it’s much better than randomly thinking you know it all. If you can find where the pack is and what they’re running (themes) this is the highest probability of arena of trade to be winning consistently.

You just need to be able to “out stick handle” the other traders in the pack so you are the last one holding the bag in the trade.

Technical analysis training helps you know how to manage your swing trade properly and when a trader has themes plus technical analysis on their side they’re a long way to becoming a consistent winning trader.

Then it’s learning how to size your entry, where to add and trim your trade size and how to manage risk and emotion.

“Example of chart structure set-up that when others are locking in on TA themes can produce 2-9x wins over and over, this particular set-up in last time cycle was one of our best winners over and over on our swing trade platform. One for the set-ups trade $STUDY catalogue.”

“For our swing traders (or those in the Sunday $STUDY sessions) I explain how to measure out the price extensions for the move(s) when price breaks out of the pattern and runs. Fantastic set-up to learn.”

“These technical “themes” are identified for swing trades by running daily scans on structured plays, some traders will call them “patterns“, we refer to them as “structures” because we want to be able to establish timing for our price targets and price extensions etc.”

“It also helps a trader stay out of that negative feed-back loop of losses when you are forcing trades, if you spend 9/10’s of your time scanning $STUDY for set-up themes and execute on where the wolf pack is you’re much more likely to see a high win percentage in your trading.”

“Moral of the story is if a trader can identify set-up patterns (TA) themes on scans trading community is driving w/i time cycles, returns (ROI) can soar when you’re “in the pocket” so to speak. It makes up for random forced trades and focuses your energy to where the winning is.”

Swing trade, alert, review, set-up

This chart swing trade strategy (setup) late 2019 early 2020 was found on scans regularly for big trader wins #swingtradealerts

swing trading, alerts, review

Swing Trading Alert to take profit on 2x hit on a technical set-up that occurred during a time cycle over and over for 2-6x plus hits #swingtradealerts

As you can see in the swing trade review above, this pattern can be a very powerful set-up for traders and produces a fantastic win for great returns. If you have set-ups like these to work with then the odd losing trade doesn’t matter.

If you need help with a trade set-up or becoming a consistent win-side trader email me at [email protected].

Thanks,

Curt

Members can expect Part 2 of this article in your email inbox within a few hours.

In Part 2, as noted above, I will explain in detail how we scan for these great themes and patterns, how you establish and measure price extensions for price targets for your trading plan, the support and resistance areas of the charts, various trend-lines, how to chart the Fibonacci levels, how to manage your stops, trade sizing, ebb and flow of trade executions at support and resistance and much more.

 

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Subscribe to Swing Trading Service:

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Swing Trading Study Guide Newsletters (After Trade In-Depth Reviews Including Set-Up Identification, Trading Plan, Sizing, Risk Management, ROI and more).

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Article Topics; Swing Trading, Reviews, Technical Analysis, Alerts, Trade, Set-Ups, Patterns, Price Targets, Swing Trade Reviews


Premarket Morning Note

Good morning traders

Bear with us with reporting, there’s a lot of moving parts and we’re exhausted to be honest, it will be nice to get a break for a near day from Friday close to Saturday afternoon haha.

We’re still working with new internet line but have solutions so we’re close, unfortunately only way we can do our development in our work is to be in places where infrastructure requires us to be involved, so it is so.

And the server capacity at Click Meeting and with internet wide is still challenged but areas of the world are opening so this will improve.

COVID has tasked our body limits to say the least, work load is heavy.

Nevertheless, we’re getting there one step at a time.

Now, today is Friday, go easy, we see this inflection and bull most likely running next week, but you have to be in the right themes. I promise you we will have continued reporting out this weekend and it will be substantial (after some rest). We’re going to clean up reporting all current positions and profit loss status and be ready for the new.

Thanks very much again for your support and stay safe out there today.

Curt

Oil Trade Alerts

This time cycle was spot on, too bad I miss executed my swing trade trying to chip in to the turn on the intra-week trade I chickened out, that was an error. However, the EPIC V3.1.1 upgrade is firing with precision in the oil trading room and alerts so this is very encouraging, the code updates we a challenge in this Black Swan event to say the least.

This time cycle alerted in crude oil in this article was in fact the low for the week. Understanding time cycles can help traders position bias on various time-frames #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL #premarket #oiltrading #timecycles

A Real-Time Example of How Time-Cycles Work in Crude Oil Trade 🎯🔥🏹 #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL $UCO $SCO #oiltrading #tradealerts 👇

This is what it looks like when the machines abuse humans. Nice upgrades EPIC V3.1.1 Machine SoftwareDirect hitFireBow and arrowDown pointing backhand index

Swing Trade Alerts

And on the swing trading alerts side of the biz things are going well, it’s just a matter of working through positioning (dot plotting) your trade thesis within themes, this takes a lot of work.

The last two cycles were super strong and we expect the new to be also, it does take some time however in the inflection (or the turn of the cycle). This weekend we’ll have a lot more of the set-ups out to our swing trading members and the inflection should start to take hold and clarity in to end of August 2020 time cycle should be in full play (themes of trades).

The alerts this morning to the swing trading alert feed are examples of themes that should be strong.

The ZOOM swing trade alert was a double, that is a great example of a theme type play.

There are others developing now for this time cycle, so we expect each time cycle to be bigger as we go.

swing trade alerts, ZOOM, trade

ZOOM (ZM) trading 175s premarket with outside price target 211s use caution and take profits on the way y’all #swingtrading $ZM

 

Article Topics; Premarket, swing trade alerts, machine trading, oil trading, swing trading, live trading room, time cycles, alerts, crude oil.

 

 


Important Note: Oil Traders, Alerts, Trading Room, Machine Trading

 

Good afternoon traders,

There is a new white paper coming out later that will address this and other points.

But for timely reasons I want to share one important update with you relating to oil trade alerts.

We have recently completed another software update for EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading.

Specifically, it is that the base contract account size traded going forward (and alerted) is a 30 contract account, or at minimum an account 300,000.00 USD or larger trading CL continuous contracts.

Any account smaller than 10 contracts (if traded on CL futures not specifically CFDs because this is different) is at significant risk considering the recent market action. Machine entities around the globe are adjusting, this is obvious in order flow.

The alerts will then reflect a 30 contract account size. In other words, Long 1/30 size etc will be represented in the alerts. This will also allow those trading CFD’s to better manage sizing relative to the alerts.

The bottom line is that an account trading CL futures at 30 contracts via EPIC v3 software is considered very low risk (if any), an account at 10 contracts possesses moderate risk and anything less significant risk – in this market environment.

Any questions please let me know.

The revised white paper will however likely answer any questions you may have.

Thanks

Curt

Reminder to existing clients! If you are on Whatsapp and want to have the fastest direct access to my trading desk send your whatsapp number to [email protected] and I’ll connect to you there also.

Most Recent EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading White Paper:

White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading

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Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

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Article Topics: Trading, Crude Oil, Oil, Trade, Alerts, Machine Trading

 

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