Compound Trading Chat Room Stock Trading Plan and Watch List Friday Feb 23, 2018 $BUFF, $CHK, $GLD, Gold, Europe Funds, $HPE, $HPQ, $FDX, $UPS, $WING – $GSUM, $WKHS, $ROKU, $JP, $SLCA, $INSY – $SPXL, $SPY, $BTC.X, Bitcoin, Gold, $DUST, $WTI, OIL, $VIX , Gold Miners $GDX, Silver $SLV, $USOIL, US Dollar Index $USD/JPY, $DXY, S&P 500, Volatility … more.

Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading!

Notices:

Notes in red text below are new comments entered specifically today (or recently important).

Curtis is on annual holiday from Feb 13 – 23.

Reporting and trading rooms run per normal. Mid day reviews will recommence when he returns. Curtis will be intermittently in trading rooms only during that time.

Service(s) Memo Follow-Up re: Compliance and Service Offerings Going Forward

Today’s Live Trading Room Link:

http://compoundtrading1.clickmeeting.com/livetrading

Live Alerts for Oil, Gold, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are now available by following specific alert Twitter feeds.

Disclaimer / disclosure: Every subscriber must read this disclaimer.

Reporting and Next Gen Algorithms:.

BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your subscription as many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also.

IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email or DM Sartaj!

Master Class Charting Series Webinars:

All members received a copy in their email inbox as we progress. Full series will be posted to website at a cost of 2999.99. Early adopter members receive it free.

Attendees to next Master Classes being held in Dominican, Columbia, Brasil, and Panama attendees will receive 50% credit to off-set travel costs. Limited space FYI. We are currently planning 2018 master class sessions and will advise.

Connect with me on Discord.

Recent Blog / Video / Social posts: 

#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …

How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube

How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST

Recent Mid Day Chart / Trade Set-Ups:

See You Tube for other recent video posts. 

Swing trading setups Jan 18 $FB, $SPY, $CNTF, $CTIC, $RIOT, $AES ….

Swing trade stock setups Jan 19 $SPY, $GSUM, $DXY, $MIND, $XPO, $ICPT…

Swing trade / daytrade set-ups for wk of Jan 22 $SPY, $FB, $ROKU, $DXY, $JUNO, $BTC.X, $FATE …

CRITICAL time cycle decisions SP500 $SPY, Gold $GLD, Oil $WTI, USD $DXY, Bitcoin $BTC.X and more…

Swing trading ideas & how I am managing $SPY $SPXL trade, structural trading $XNET, $SQ, $GDX …

Technical charting lessons here at market open $HMNY, $XNET, $SPY, $SEII, $INSY, $SLCA

Jan 9 Swing trading set-ups $XNET mid trade technical review, $GSUM, $SLCA, $SPY, $TESS….

Live $XNET trade $4267.00 gain. Swing trade entry and chart set-up at 40:00 – 54:00 min on video.

Jan 8 Swing Trading Set-Ups $AYI, $SPY, $SQ, $VRX, $AXON, $BTC.X….

Market Open Jan 8 Live Chart Model “On the Fly” $VRX, $SPY, $BTC, $LITD, $MYSZ, $INSY

Jan 3 Swing Trading Set Ups $SPY, $SPXL, $LTCUSD, $GLD, $APRI, $MNKD, $INSY, $TEUM, $NTEC, $LEDS …

Jan 2 Swing Trading Set-Ups $BTC.X, $SPY, $GDX, $XOMA, $JP, $INSY, $MNKD, $NTEC, $SKT, $RENN …

Recent Educational Videos:

Want to learn how to trade stocks for a consistent profit? Raw trading footage video library. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxmgJ3CfWHRBFFMpoHumZ8w … … #freedomtraders

Visit the Trading Educational and Analysis Play List at this Link on our YouTube Channel

Trading Plan (Buy, Hold, Sell) Watch Lists. Morning Momentum / Gap / News / PR / IPO / SEC Filings / Earnings Stocks on Watch: 

$MOMO premarket up 8.71% trading 33.19 on aqcuisition of Chinese Tinder rival #trading #premarket #stocks

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: BUFF, HPE, HPQ, FDX, UPS, WING & more

Market Observation:

US Dollar $DXY trading 89.89, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 62.62, Gold $GLD trading 1330.66, Silver $SLV trading 16.60, $SPY trading 270.33 last, Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD trading 10145.00, and $VIX trading 18.4.

Recent Momentum Stocks to Watch: 

News: 

$KDMN – Kadmon Announces Updated Positive Results from Phase 2 Study of KD025 in cGVHD

$RARE and Kyowa Kirin Announce Crysvita Receives Conditional Marketing Authorization in Europe for the Treatment of X–Linked Hypophosphatemia in Children

Recent SEC Filings: 

Recent IPO’s: 

Some Earnings On Deck: 

#earnings for the week

$WMT $HD $ROKU $DPZ $CHK $OLED $AAOI $MGM $MDT $UCTT $FSLR $TTD $DUK $EXAS $SIX $P $STMP $TREE $CBRL $AAP $RIG $CTB $WLL $NBL $LNG $HLX $WLK $TPH $WAB $W $OC $APA $DVN $GRMN $HFC $GPC $SO $EGN $HSIC $LC $ECL $MOS $SLCA $DLPH $CAR

http://eps.sh/cal

Recent / Current Holds, Open and Closed Trades

This will re-commence under a new format when Curtis returns from holiday. “With new alert protocol buy / sell signals will be posted here as trade signals trigger along with specific thesis and chart set-ups”.

Per recent;

Yesterday the first oil trade went very well and with EIA I missed a large short opportunity, newer position $XNET 1/10 size long from Monday. Holding $XIV 1.5/10 sizing (event closing this derivative), $SPXL 1/10 size, small sizing holds include $WKHS, $GE, $XBTUSD $BTC Bitcoin 9700.00 1/40 size, $DUST 1/20 size recently close 50% for win, $ROKU, $GSUM (recently closed 1/3 at highs hold 2/3), $JP, $SLCA, $INSY (all small size) and very small sizing $AAOI, $SPPI and micro size $OMVS. On short side I am 1/10 Gold short.

Charts and Chart Set-ups on Watch:

$MOMO premarket up 8.71% trading 33.19 on aqcuisition of Chinese Tinder rival #trading #premarket #stocks

$MOMO, premarket, trading, plan

$MOMO premarket up 8.71% trading 33.19 on aqcuisition of Chinese Tinder rival #trading #premarket #stocks

$CHK Premarket trading 2.83 up 7.6% on earnings. #premarket #trading

$CHK, premarket, trading, plan

$CHK Premarket trading 2.83 up 7.6% on earnings. #premarket #trading

US Dollar Index $DXY MACD turned up and continues to trend. $UUP #USD

Dollar, DXY, MACD, Chart

US Dollar Index $DXY MACD turned up and continues to trend. $UUP #USD

Silver MACD Daily provides consistent trend directional trade indication and ROI. $SLV $DSLV $USLV #Silver

Silver, MACD, daily, chart

Silver MACD Daily provides consistent trend directional trade indication and ROI. $SLV $DSLV $USLV #Silver

$FSLR First Solar stock chart had MACD turned and under 50 MA in to earnings. #stock #chart

$FSLR, stock, chart

$FSLR First Solar stock chart had MACD turned and under 50 MA in to earnings. #stock #chart

Bitcoin hit buy sell trigger support 5895 early (green arrow) then mid trigger early (gray) and 13790 in sight Feb 22. $BTC $XBTUSD

$BTC, Bitcoin, Daily, Chart, Time, Price, Cycle

Bitcoin hit buy sell trigger support 5895 early (green arrow) then mid trigger early (gray) and 13790 in sight Feb 22. $BTC $XBTUSD

Per previous;

$SPY MACD may turn here. 200 MA hit, working thru moving averages.. MACD daily predictable directional swing trade indicator.. Feb 20 726 AM $SPXL $SPXS

Really decent action for those the held or added / bought the dip. Excellent trading opportunity in $SPY on the last wash-out.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/4DjwjK1l-SPY-MACD-may-turn-here-200-MA-hit-working-thru-moving-average/

$SPY, daily, chart, MACD

$SPY MACD may turn here. 200 MA hit, working thru moving averages.. MACD daily predictable directional swing trade indicator.. Feb 20 726 AM $SPXL $SPXS

Oil Resistance Check Feb 19. 50% Fibonacci, mid quad on monthly chart.. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL #OOTT $USO $UWT $DWT

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/r9xEjQjr-Oil-Resistance-Check-Feb-19-50-Fibonacci-mid-quad-on-monthly/

Oil, Resistance, Fibonacci, Monthly, Chart, USOIL, WTI

Oil Resistance Check Feb 19. 50% Fibonacci, mid quad on monthly chart.. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL #OOTT $USO $UWT $DWT

$SODA pop #premarket trading 82.15 +4.5% on earnings. Daily chart looks good too. A main watch for me today. #trading https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sodastream-shares-jump-after-earnings-and-revenue-beat-2018-02-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo …

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sodastream-shares-jump-after-earnings-and-revenue-beat-2018-02-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

$SODA, premarket, earnings

$SODA pop premarket trading 82.15 +4.5 on earnings. Daily chart looks good too.

$NVDA Premarket up 9.96% trading 239.20 on cryptocurrency gaming demand and forward guidance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/nvidia-shares-surge-after-big-cryptocurrency-gaming-demand.html?__source=Twitter

NVDA, premarket, trading, plan

$NVDA Premarket up 9.96% trading 239.20 on cryptocurrency gaming demand and forward guidance.

$VIX over upper bollinger band creates excellent short side risk-reward. Use additional MACD signal. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV #volatility

$VIX, short, chart, bollinger, bands

$VIX over upper bollinger band creates excellent short side risk-reward. Use additional MACD signal. $TVIX $UVXY $XIV #volatility

$GDX in dangerous territory on 200 MA on Daily with MACD and SQMOM turned down. Bearish. $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG

$GDX, miner, 200 MA, Daily, Chart

$GDX in dangerous territory on 200 MA on Daily with MACD and SQMOM turned down. Bearish. $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG

$ARRY Weekly chart suggests long term structure needs price over 14.89 on weekly now thru after June 3 time cycle. If so, it is up. #swingtrading https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ARRY/EZbQb5F4-ARRY-Weekly-chart-suggests-long-term-structure-needs-price-over/ …

$AAOI The stock is trading 64% below last summer’s 52-week highs with earnings in 21 days I will be looking for a bounce. #earnings #trading

$AAOI, swing trading, chart

$AAOI The stock is trading 64% below last summer’s 52-week highs with earnings in 21 days I will be looking for a bounce. #earnings #trading

Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:

Equity investors fleeing Wall Street are turning to Europe https://bloom.bg/2CD3U9q

JPMorgan’s quants warn risks are growing for bond short-squeeze https://bloom.bg/2ELoE4x

#5Things
-Mnuchin interview
-Wall Street and guns
-VIX probe
-Nafta
-Buffett’s big weekend
https://bloom.bg/2ELQu0B

The article doesn’t mention the 100 MA overhead on the weekly. May wanna consider in trading plan. #Gold $GC_F $GLD $XAUUSD

Gold is nearing what could be an ultra-bullish key level

These 3 charts point to a big rally ahead for gold

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/22/these-3-charts-point-to-a-big-rally-ahead-for-gold.html

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channel and at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect their math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ in my trading – all publicly posted live trades).

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):

I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).

Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:

(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:

(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List: $IMMR $BUFF $TTD $HPE $KDMN $MOMO $GNC $HPQ $NDGPF $MYSZ $DPW $DGAZ $CHK $MIC $TQQQ $SOXL $TNA $SVXY $SWN

(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List :  

(3) Other Watch-List:

(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.

(5) Recent Upgrades: $SBGL $FNGN $BT $HPP $LEN $SYNH $OGE $FDX $EIX $IDCC

(6) Recent Downgrades: $COTV $MIC $ACIA $QTS $RRR $ARD $TPH $ECHO $WK $LC $BRFS $LXRX $RRR $IOVA

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Study:

For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.gurufocus.com/short-stocks.php

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

http://www.etf.com/channels/gold-etfs

GL!

Curtis

Algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $BTC (@CryptotheAlgo) $WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index). Our Swing Trading Twitter feed is found here: https://twitter.com/swingtrading_ct.  Our lead trader Twitter feed is here @curtmelonopoly and lead tech developer @hundalSHS.

Article Topics: Premarket, Watchlist, Stocks, Trading, Plan, $BUFF, $CHK, $GLD, Gold, Europe Funds, $HPE, $HPQ, $FDX, $UPS, $WING, $ROKU, $GSUM, $WKHS, $ROKU, $JP, $SLCA, $INSY, $SPXL, $SPY, $BTC.X, Bitcoin, Gold, $DUST, $WTI, OIL, $VIX


 

So you want to trade options? You want to get rich quick? You want to be like that guy from Wolf of Wall Street(not Leo, every man wants to be Leo already). If you’ve answered yes to all three of these questions you’ve undoubtedly dabbled (or at least wanted to dabble) in cheap weekly options. There is no quicker way to make or lose a fortune than in high risk/high reward option plays. Below we are going to breakdown when these might be the right choice, and how to play them without blowing up your account.

Here are 4 “lotto options truths” to keep in mind before we dive in:

  • First off, I don’t recommend playing these on every position, and if you do I would suggest not building yourself a portfolio full of them. While it is fun logging in to your account and seeing a 50% increase, I can assure you the opposite is not quite so fun.
  • Secondly, these are typically always going to be front week plays or at most following week. What does this mean? This means that you need your move and you need it now. If there is a delay, the theta burn with eat your position alive.
  • Thirdly, only risk what you are willing to lose. With the high theta burn and large gamma risk, if you get choppy price action or price action moving against your position, they will become doughnuts in the blink of an eye.
  • Lastly, if the terms “Delta”, “Gamma”, “Theta”, or “Vega” are literally Greek to you, I would suggest doing a bit of studying on the mechanics of options before diving in head first. These are important terms when understanding how an option is prices, and how it will act in comparison to the underlying asset. I can do a basic review in the future, so shoot me a note if that would be worthwhile.

So if I am looking to play a high risk option, how do I go about it?  These are going to be quick plays, so MOMO, snap backs, or playing stocks for a bounce all would be decent set ups. I typically don’t play  lotto’s for earnings as they don’t offer great risk/reward in my opinion. These setups are the same whether option or common stock, but with lotto type options you can’t afford to be wrong or late. The above mentioned theta risk is inflated in lotto type plays, and this is only exacerbated by the fact that these will always start OTM or out of the money. You don’t necessarily need to get ITM or in the money to profit, but if you go the wrong way you have no safety net of any real intrinsic value attached.

After I’ve identified a stock and an expected move, you then have to take a look at the options grid and see how the different options are being priced, and what might make sense. Typically, I am looking for something with a high delta, at a realistic strike. The higher delta means that for movement in your predicted direction, you will get paid more. For example: if a call option has a delta of 1.00(sometimes noted as 100), for every $1 increase in the underlying stock, the call option will increase by $1.00 all else being equal. The other Greeks also come in to play here like gamma which will affect the rate of change in the delta, but you get the idea. So when looking at a lotto call for example, I want a high delta. Why? Because I want to get paid. These are high risk high reward remember, so if I get my move I want to get the payoff. A large majority of these will expire worthless so the winners need to win big for you. This is also where I define my risk. When you’re buying lotto plays, the chances of salvaging much of your buy in can often be low, so I will only buy what I am willing to lose outright. This helps not only curb large losses, but it also helps me manage my positions without large emotional swings. Manage your risk up front the best you can and it will go a long way towards success.

Let’s use an example from the room this week. I wanted to play $CHK for a bounce, but wasn’t too confident that I would get my move with some pending market weakness and overall choppy markets. I knew if it did bounce, it should have some legs as it recently came down hard from a swing high(good), but it had yet to break out of the bull flag pattern that I had it in(not so good). I could have waited for it to break out to the upside, but positive price movement and strength in oil lead to jumping on it now instead of waiting. If I would have waited for it to break out to the upside, I would have also likely had to move up at least a strike to get a similar set up which meant going to 8’s, and that didn’t leave me with much upside against the prior swing high of $8.20.

lotto1

They don’t call them lotto’s for nothing after all! So with $CHK trading at 7.03 and 8 days to expiry or DTE, I picked up a handful of the Dec 23 7.5 calls for .11 each. You will note the large delta and gamma which means that these options will explode with positive price movement. Yes, they will also bleed out if I don’t get my move. You will also notice the small price tag attached to each contract. If these got to zero tomorrow I won’t be elated, but I won’t lose any sleep over the loss either.

lotto2

Here’s what I ended up with, and you can see what I mean by keeping size small on a play like this. This was as of close on 12/15.

lotto3

Here is the same position, only one day later. The interesting move, and why our position is now worth less lies in the Theta. Above we had a large theta of -16.11, and now the theta is -14.57. This is the time value, and what is working against you with short duration options. Remember my saying that you need your move and you need it now? We got a 2% move in the underlying asset, and lost money day over day because of the Theta decay. Let’s also look at the Delta which increased for two reasons. The main reason that Delta increased is that the underlying asset moved in our favor, but the Vega also moved slightly which will increase the Delta as well. This also brought the Gamma along with it and we saw a large increase there. If the underlying asset would have stayed flat day over day, we could have expected a lower Delta as the time decay would have brought it down as remember that as expiry all out of the money options have a Delta of zero.

lotto4

As of now we are about even on the position, and all of the same rules apply moving forward. My typical goal for these lotto’s is to sell half of my position for a double, and let the other half “ride free” so to speak. This not only covers your costs for the initial purchase, but it also takes the pressure off and lets you manage the position knowing that you have already made your money back. I will do another post next weekend detailing how this ended up, and if $CHK brought me a present or a lump of coal for Christmas.

I hope you have a great week of trading, and send me a note in the room if this was worthwhile or if you would like to see something else discussed.

Mathew Waterfall

Twitter: https://twitter.com/quadzilla_jr