Crypto the Bitcoin Algorithm Charting Model Newsletter Monday March 26, 2018. Charts for $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC.X $ETH $LTC $XRP #Bitcoin
Hello! My name is Crypto the Bitcoin Algo. Welcome to the member edition Bitcoin trade report for Compound Trading.
Like our other algorithmic chart models, I am in development and testing for coding phase to be used as an intelligent assistant for our traders (not HFT). My charting model is specifically suitable for the use and purpose of trading Bitcoin $BTCUSD, Bitcoin/USD perpetual swaps $XBTUSD and Bitcoin related equities.
Note: The $XBTUSD model is built on a chart from BitMEX. Prices on other exchanges may vary slightly from what you see on the model, so remember to keep that in mind when trading the model.
- More extensive chart models for $BTCUSD, $ETHUSD, $XRPUSD, $LTCUSD and others (such as a few bitcoin related equities) will be featured in future reporting.
- Join us in our private Crypto Trading room on discord!
- For newer users – read the blog post about how to trade Bitcoin here.
Primary Methods of Trade:
Live Twitter Alert Feed for Bitcoin Trade Set-ups: @BTCAlerts_CT, Public Feed: @cryptothealgo
The primary method of trade we have found works with the most predictability is to wait for bitcoin to breach the upper right wall of a quadrant (the orange, blue or grey diagonal dotted lines – the thicker lines are more significant as they represent wider time-frames) and confirm over the next horizontal Fibonacci resistance. You can expect to get to reach the mid-line of the upper quadrant – over the mid-line you can expect it to reach the next quadrant wall. Entering this trade near the apex of a quadrant (time cycle peak range for a specific time-frame) gives you the widest trading range probability.
This method also works in reverse: Wait for Bitcoin to breach downward through the upper left wall of a quadrant, or fail when trying to breach upward through the upper left quadrant wall. Let it confirm under the next horizontal support and you can expect to see the mid-line of the quadrant – under the mid-line you can expect to see the next quadrant wall. Same as above, entering this trade near the apex of a quadrant gives you the highest probability of the widest trading range.
Channels: Another high probability trade is entering long as price rides up the bottom right wall of an orange quadrant. This is a safe trade to hold with a stop under the quad wall until the current time cycle expires. This trade works in reverse as well. You can enter short just under the upper right quadrant wall resistance, with a stop just over the quadrant wall, and hold until the current time cycle expires.
Horizontal Fibonacci Support/Resistance: The horizontal support/resistance lines are good indicators to use inside quadrants. The light green 0.5 Fibonacci line and the grey 1.0 or 0 Fibonacci levels (mid-lines) are the most significant. Clusters of these lines represent significant support/resistance as well. Intersections of horizontal and diagonal Fibonacci lines represent an upcoming decision and create a high probability of a significant move out of sideways trade.
Resistance Clusters: Along with the algorithm indicators on the chart there are traditional support/resistance lines that are very important. When these lines converge volatility tends to increase. Under the cluster is a high probability short. If it does get through the cluster it becomes a very high probability long scenario as the HFT algos cover their shorts and load up long.
Targets: Red circles on charting. These are placed at the most likely price targets in time cycles / trends relative to quads. These are still in very early stage of development/testing and should be used for observation only at this point. Two are typically provided for each quadrant time frame – the upper scenario targets should be considered if the trend is up and likewise for the lower. I do not recommend entering trades based on these targets. Also, at times the mid quad support / resistance line is highlighted with a target if trade is not extremely bullish or bearish.
Natural / Historical Support/Resistance: Natural / historical support and resistance is represented on the chart by purple horizontal lines.
Conventional Charting: Conventional charting should be weighed against the model(s) with all trade decisions.
Bitcoin Algorithm Live Charting Link:
Algorithm model on the Daily Bitcoin Chart: Click link to open initial chart viewer screen, then share button at bottom right of screen, then make it mine, then double click on chart body to hide or reveal indicators at bottom of chart (MACD etc).
Bitcoin rejected at 200 MA is very bearish, watching support tests for bounce or down. $BTC #Bitcoin
Per last post it was trending up quad wall trend-line but 200 MA sent it down outside of quad diagonal trend-line. Watching for possible bounce.
Bitcoin Chart Model – Under 200 MA working its way up quad TL. 903 PM Mar 19. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
Bitcoin Chart Model – Under 200 MA under mid quad resistance. 651 PM Mar 10. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
Bitcoin Chart Model – Up over mid quad nearing quad wall resistance Mar 5. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
In summary, our first generation Bitcoin algorithm chart model uses the following indicators (listed from most predictable to least in terms of win rate):
- Trading range created by long term algorithmic modeled quadrant support and resistance (blue dotted lines)
- Trading range between buy/sell trigger levels (grey/green arrows and solid lines)
- Directional channels formed by long term algorithmic modeled support and resistance
- Horizontal Fibonacci support and resistance (multi-colored horizontal lines)
- Conventional Natural support and resistance (purple horizontal lines)
- Long term conventional trend lines (red diagonal lines)
- Conventional MA’s
Observations in the current area of trade:
Crypto $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $LTC #cryptocurrency #technicalanalysis
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) February 12, 2018
Bitcoin MACD trending bullish with Stochastic RSI nearing top of range. $BTC $XBTUSD #Bitcoin
The squeeze momentum indicator and MACD on daily chart are still trending up but the Stochastic RSI is high and looks ready to turn FYI.
The squeeze momentum indicator direction trend should be in consideration for direction IMO on daily chart. $BTC $XBTUSD Trade against its trend at your peril (historically speaking and specifically on daily).
Key buy / sell price trigger levels in the current area of trade are as follows:
Mar 26 – 4956.2, 5319, 5639, 5826, 6860, 7880, 8198, 9827.60, 11486.20, 11689, 12844, 13783
Bitcoin Trading Plan
200 MA test on daily chart failed with possible bounce on daytrading 30 min chart…. watching… but it is under pressure.
March 19 – Current trade bias is long to target concluding at upward target along TL quad trendline. Watch 200 MA test and mid quad resistance test. 9757 Apr 7 target on model.
From here to 13700 range it seems without significant resistance. Trading bias is bullish between moving averages on chart (horizontal lines).
The 8854.20 support played out well – trading 11315.00 now with a time / price cycle peak coming in VERY SOON – Feb 22. Watch price direction really close coming out of Feb 22. Use the grey and green buy sell trigger arrows and quad walls as support and resistance decisions.
Daytrading charting on $BTC says careful with 11700.00 range resistance Feb 22.
Mar 26 – Per above.
Bitcoin has 200 MA on 30 Min. Bullish bias to target. Bitcoin Chart Model – Daytrading 30 Min Chart. Mar 19 917 PM. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
Bitcoin Chart Model – Daytrading 30 Min Chart. Mar 10 713 PM. $BTC $XBTUSD #bitcoin
Daytrader’s view of algorithm model charting on 60 minuter chart. $XBTUSD $BTC #Bitcoin
Ethereum Basic Algorithm Charting Model on Daily Time Frame:
March 26 – $ETH Ethereum trading 477.50 near mid quad support test. Defined channel forming. Lost 200 MA which is technically bearish…. but this is crypto.
Indicators do not say long yet, but I can’t help but imagine a bounce soon. My trader bias is up soon…. but trade price and let’s see because crypto issues are in a downtrend.
$ETH Ethereum -0.85% algorithmic charting model – $ETH has lost 200 MA but upside target in play.
If BTC gets the jump the chart suggests is possible then ETH should easily hit the upside target and get a jump further imo
all based on confirmed price action of course…. but I think RR is to bull side now
$ETH Ethereum algorithmic charting model – price responding well to model.
$ETH Indecisive trade. #Ethereum
Litecoin Basic Algorithm Charting Model
March 26 – $LTC Litecoin trading 144.71 testing 200 MA on daily and near channel support. Expect a bounce.
At some point between where it is trading today and the channel bottom a long side should put out a decent risk reward advantage. As with all other crypto – it is crypto so trade price confirmations and watch each support and resistance test for confirmations as you go.
$LTC Litecoin trading 144.71 testing 200 MA on daily and near channel support. Expect a bounce.
$LTC at 200 MA support is an obvious long side risk reward advantage bulls on algorithm model.
$LTC bounced off 200 MA support under mid quad targeting lower price target on algorithm model.
Primary buy sell triggers on Litecoin daily chart:
Ripple Basic Algorithm Charting Model
$XRP Ripple downside trend looking more probable than up in to time cycle peak.
$XRP 1.64 upside target scenario if a bull run turns. If not watch out below.
$XRP following 200 MA – really soft trade.
$XRP still indecisive.
Ripple has gone quiet – isn’t chasing time price peaks. $XRP basic algorithm chart model. Feb 20 642 PM $XRPUSD
< End of report >
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Post topics; Crypto, chart, $BTCUSD, $XBTUSD, $BTC.X, $ETH, $LTC, $XRP, Bitcoin, trade