04
Nov 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter (Contrarian Day or Continued Sell-Off?)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 4, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! The election is near, it Payroll day… and will the market continue to sell-off? Even more importantly… can I get to the pool before the rain comes – soooo beautiful during trading hours and then lightening thunder and rain right when I get there – EVERYDAY.

My trading plan today (like my post market report last night) will be very brief… both because we were up all night with equipment and software upgrades and because from now until the election not much has changed….

EXCEPT…

I pivoted late day to a contrarian play and put my money where my mouth is on it and took $XIV trades with BOTH my small day trade account and large swing account. I may or may not move in and out of that position! Stay nimble!

THE MARKET CAN STAY….. you know the rest.

Morning Momentum / Yesterday Gainers:

Prior to election I doubt I will take a morning momo play… after election yes most days I do… but morning momo is going to be a tough play IMO – that is was I have mostly sat on my hands in the morning.

IF YOU WANT TO BLOW UP YOUR ACCOUNT… MESS UP MORNING MOMO!!!

It is a bit early to post momo plays so I will post them as I see them of interest in the room and on my Twitter feed as time allows.

Anyway, from yesterday I am following:

$IQNT, $MPG, $TCCO, $EVI, $ENOC, $DRYS – Shippers and Twitter and others…

Crude Oil – FX $USOIL, $WTI | $USO $DWTI $UWTI $CL_F Etc….

EPIC the Oil Algo new algorithmic calculations are not published yet for the new price / time zone… I wouldn’t expect them until before market open Monday because the price has done NOTHING since it dropped in to it’s new zone… it did slice right through a target on Wed at 10:30 AM (red circles) and looks like it will do the same for today’s 1:00 PM algo target. You can see on the chart how the algos are trading up to the algo trendline (red dotted line) and it has done not much else – but it is UNDER that red dotted line – caution IMO.

Gold, Silver, Miners, Metals… ($JNUG, $JDST, $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $GLD, $SLV, $USLV etc…)

My position is intact… prior to election downdraft I was looking for downdraft (one) in Gold and Silver (if you go back to my posts you will see consistency there) and I also am prepared for Gold and Silver among others to take off… I am watching. Watch $FXY.

Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ… etc)

No clue – no clue at all – it should be running. Just like silver should be IMO.

Volatility $VIX ($UVXY, $XIV, $TVIX etc)

I think $VIX insurance was a tad over-done yesterday… but of course I have been wrong before – so I took a contrarian trade in $XIV and we’ll see. RR was good and I have room in my win rate to fail once in a while:)

US Dollar Index $DXY $UUP and $HYG, $TLT etc..

It is threatening support – I would be cautious. You never know what kind of manipulation is coming over next few trading days – I AM WATCHING IT like a hawk. The dollar, credit, $HYG, $TLT, $DXY, China $CNY and other currencies etc…. I am watching very close.

Twitter

This is such an interesting play for me now – I was interested until recently – but now I am ESPECIALLY with some big name tech companies TANKING.

In Summary… between now and the election it is all about being nimble for me.

The trade room could get really exciting or be the most boring few trading days on record!

Watch the room alerts and my Twitter feed for updates!

Good luck and stay blessed! And please… bank bank bank.

Curt

 

 

31
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, Oil, $DXY, $JNUG, Gold, Silver, $UGAZ…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

My Stock Trading Plan for November 1, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

On Watch: Momentum Follow-Through Stocks:

Looking for potential follow-through on $BRCO, $INTX, $HMNY, $NTP, $TWTR, $CETX, $NVCN, $ATOS, $AUY

I won’t explain in detail what I’m looking for in this forum (I’ll do that in that trade room for each that are considered as / if they are considered).

Monday’s momo:

$BRCO + 22%

$INTX +25%

$HMNY +7.14%

$NTP + 7.86%

$TWTR +1.64%

$CETX +5.26%

$NVCN +29.96%

$ATOS +21.05%

$AUY +4.09%

On Watch: Morning Momentum stocks TBD.

$SPY Set-up / Volatility $XIV $TVIX $UVXY $VXX 

I think there is a set-up with $SPY… wait for volatility and play it – beyond that I’m not trading $SPY or related instruments because I believe the Fed is in there and has it pinned – period. Not enough width IMO.

$SPY, $TVIX, $XIV, $UVXY

Trading $SPY Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX Etc)

$VIX – Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX, etc)

My problem with $VIX is that I can’t take a trade this high in $UVXY etc. because I would want $VIX closer to 13 (but it may get away on me) and I can’t take a trade in $XIV etc because I don’t expect volatility to settle down before the election. So I’m watching very close between now and the election. I believe there will be daily opportunity here starting Wednesday at latest – there was lots of “insurance” buys Monday… so Tuesday may even open an opportunity.

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

There is nothing broken in the US Dollar Index chart IMO. The continued targets I’ve previously posted stand unless conditions change.

$DXY, US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index 1114 PM Nov 1

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust – Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

If you’re thinking of taking a position in Gold Miner’s this is good to follow. Last night it started to turn around and miner’s ran Monday (so no surprise and should have been an easy trade – distracted lol) so watch it if it continues to rise 9/10 times miner’s will follow… I even watch it with Gold plays and even before I take a small cap Gold company or miner position.

$FXY, Yen

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust Oct 31 1121 PM

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear

Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically – it can be a great daytrade.

$TZA

$TZA, Small Cap Bear 3x

$SMK / $EWW (Mexico Capped ETF)

If you think Trump is going to win you want to short $EWW or play $SMK (however thinly traded).

Crude Oil: FX $USOIL $WTI | FXCM $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

So crude had a significant downdraft Monday (OPEC / non OPEC couldn’t get it together I guess)… and ended up trading down to a diagonal trend-line (blue) from a previous time / price cycle and very near a horizontal price support (purple) and it appears that it will be heading for the nearest target EPIC the Oil Algo called. And to make matters worse (if you review a simple chart) the neckline support with oil has been breached (not that I give that much consideration).

I was going to take a long position in $UWTI at end of day but didn’t and will strongly consider one in the morning.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Looking for entry $GLD at 114.00 / 115.00 area – but I don’t think I will get that before the election.

Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target closer to 1177.00.

On Friday I wrote that I expected Gold Miner’s to run Monday and that occurred – I will be watching them close. There again wanted a pull-back I don’t think I’m going to get.

Going in to election I am very bullish most commodities. I am currently running charts on miner companies too.

$JNUG +7.42% Monday

$JUNG

$JUNG October 31 – Junior Gold Miner’s Bull 3x

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

$SLV, Silver

$SLV Silver

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

Here also, with natural gas I am looking for one level lower for an entry. It’s at 2.99 overnight and an ideal entry would be 2.86 (or at least a review there).

$UGAZ was off 9.42% on Monday so I will watch close Tuesday.

$UGAZ

$UGAZ Oct 31 -9.42%

The Finviz stock screener is available here:  http://finviz.com/.

Look forward to seeing you in the chat room. Visit www.compoundtrading.com and click on the link on the main page to enter the chat room.

Curtis

28
Oct 2016

Pre-Market Newsletter ($SPY, $VIX, $USOIL Oil, $DXY, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver…more)

Trading Plan , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Curt Melonopoly

Good morning stock traders!

$SPY $ES_F

I don’t expect any $SPY related trading until election unless there is some unexpected “width” in trade.

$VIX – $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

I do expect to be trading $VIX related instruments between now and election… however, with current chart I would like an entry when $VIX closer to 13. It is currently 15.2.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

$DXY is far from broken – break-out still intact. Upside resistance levels. Currently at 98.84. Look for further run in $DXY ($UUP), $FXY (Japan Yen) continued pressure,  $CNY (China Renminbi/USD ETN) continued deval, possible continued run with $TZA (small cap bear), and $SMK / $EWW (Mexico) I am watching for an election play.

FX $USOIL $WTI – $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Crude #Oil

Crude is well above its traditional charting diagonal and horizontal trend line supports and within its trading range. EPIC the Oil algorithm published targets for 1:00 today and current price action is almost perfectly between the two main alpha algo targets published. There is a significant time / price cycle terminating no later than Tuesday Nov 1 at 9:00 PM ET and normally price will move in or out of current trading range before the termination. In this case my bet is a movement before 4:30 PM Tuesday but it could be anytime now.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

I was looking for an entry in $GLD at the 114.00 / 115.00 area (intra-day price 120.98) – but I don’t think now I will get that before the election (that was the plan so I will watch). Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target.

Even with the pressure on the miner’s yesterday (even though a pull-back is likely short-term), I am looking for that move to continue over next week – again with election things are more difficult to future cast.

Going in to election however, I am very bullish most commodities. WITHIN DAYS I WILL BE HUNTING DOWN company equities specific to a strong move I see coming very very SOON.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

My thesis was the recent run-up (which we got and I miss timed) – but short term as with Gold I expect on level down in the elevator (again, could be wrong) so that is what I will watch for.

Summary

With all of the charts relating to the above I will be watching for support and resistance levels that make sense to trade (trying to only take trades on major pivots is important). Next week our charting and algo charting publications will become very detailed (in separate reports) which will make this discussion and trade planning more clear as a result of the detail (and the chat room / broadcasting will be going live – that will help clarity and intra-trading too).

Have a great day! May you bank and bank more! Freedom is calling your name!

Curt

PS: Other…

US GDP on deck as I write – looks like a small increase..

Rig count today 13:00 EST

Premarket: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616695/a-peek-into-the-markets-u-s-stock-futures-edge-higher-alphabet-posts-upb

12 Stocks To Watch:
AMGN, AMZN, CVX, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, Earnings, EXPE, GOOGL, Health Care.

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616065/12-stocks-to-watch-for-october-28-2016