My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 10, 2016.

Election is Over!

Sorry, no premarket yesterday – but we did bank in the room and the alerts have been dead on.

Futures were strong as were/are world markets.

A few big things today… obvious lift in $SPY (and we’re banking on $XIV), my $THC swing I may exit soon, $HTZ should of held (it was a decent call), BASE METALS as I’ve posted on my feed will be strong mid term with infrastructure spending (Trump) and coal will be strong mid term likely.Copper is flying and shippers may take off here. Oh, and Natural Gas looks like it’s getting close to a buy zone. And as alerted tech and bio. Also, I missed the $NIKKEI snapback trade (which I wanted to catch just forgot – and yup it snapped back)

Many sectors are getting lift as we expected so it is important to stay in the zone – focus – nimble. Oil should be the story soon being it is bouncing under ceiling resistance on 200 on the 1 hr and bouncing up off 50 on the 1 hr.

 

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra)

I do trade them at times, but I avoid risk FYI. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Pre Market Watchlist: $TRP, $THC, $TPL, $WFT, $JJC #Copper, $AUMN, and more in chat b4 open.

If #Silver gets up over resistance and #Gold gets flight $AUMN can double fast.

$THX is up 6% or so in pre-market – so this swing is doing ok so far – I may exit this morning though.

$WFT I am watching for follow-thru.

Regular Watchlist: $GLD, $GDX, $SLV, FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), $SPY, $DXY, $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV), more to come in trading room before market open.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX)

Well I nailed that call… what can I say. We’re going to new highs. Next eight calendar days are critical. Stay awake.

Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

From Tuesday….

Some obvious plays here… if Hillary gets last minute bad news I’l scalp $TVIX or $UVXY. If election goes well for her the obviously $XIV would be a decent scalp or swing. If THE Donald wins… watch out lol… volatilty. But either way I think the market gets a lift (if Donald wins market likely does a mini Brexit then lifts). I win every-time here (seriously almost). Brexit, last Jan, last Sept and Oil have been huge bonuses to my accts in addition to compound trading program – so I see the election as a bonus.

So the $VIX is right at that diagonal trendline support – but you have to be careful putting too much consideration in to diagonal supports to beging with – but even moreso with the $VIX (it isn’t like a diagonal trendline with most equities).
$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

I missed the move in the Peso… had it lined up but you can’t get every play… WE SHOULD WATCH IT THOUGH for a bit of a snapback next week perhaps.

The US Dollar index is the only one I’m really watching – if it gets flight there’s a good play in $TZA. But other than that I’m not interested in playing China or Britain or any other currency related trades.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

The actual charting with the $DXY US Dollar isn’t broken at all… if you chekc my Twitter feed long before it got lift here I was telling folks what the algorithmic symmetry was saying… but many didn’t listen. This was an easy set-up IMO.

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI $XOP #OOTT #Algo)

Get your charting up and watch this close for a break-out. They have meetings coming up too.

Watch your 200 day on the 1 hour for resistance and 50 day on the 1 hour for support (and more recently this morning off the 100 for support) – either breach and that’s a tell. If I miss it in the room send me a DM on twitter or an email to info@compoundtrading.com. Also watch the blue diagonal trendlines on the chart for resistance and support. And the purple horizontal supports and resistance. If crude gets above the 200 Day on the 1 hour and above the blue trendline above it and the purple resistance in that same area then it’s in break-out mode. DONT MISS IT AND DONT LET ME MISS IT LOL.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Obviously all base metals will be bullish, however, $GOLD is running in to some chart resistance that is wise to consider.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

Pay attention to that 17.92 resistance – if #Silver can get up and over that on back-test it could fly. This would be my preferred play in the metals category. Also watch $AUMN if #SILVER gets up over 17.92. LETS NOT MISS THAT ONE EITHER.

Copper $JJC

Copper should cool soon here IMO and get some downdraft and then run again IMO.
Natural Gas – $NATGASUSD, $UGAZ, $DGAZ

Per previous…

I continue to watch per previous. I was expecting a floor down here (as with Gold and Silver not so much) and the downdraft this morning is significant (enough? not sure yet – ask me after election lol).

#NaturalGas IMO is almost at a floor, watch close!!! LETS CATCH THE TRAIN HERE TOO!

Good luck! And remember, we get in to nice predictable algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading with compound predictability starts Monday (we will just need to let trading settle in to its “natural mathematical state” for each intrument).

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

GL GL!

Curtis

 

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre Market, Trading Plan, Wallstreet, Stocks, Daytrading


My Stock Trading Plan for Tuesday November 8, 2016.

Election Day!

Two big things today… it is election day… but more importantly (for my trading at least)… EPIC the Oil Algo has locked in his math on time / price cycles and that means BIG TRADING coming there very soon (it’s exciting for me anyway – it means bank on top of bank cometh).

Premarket reports will not be detailed until after election.

As with recent… I’m sitting tight and trading scalps until after election – yesterday portfolio +3.5% increase and Friday +6.3% so that’s just fine for now.

Post election we will start on algorithmic trading main targets and trendlines and work with traditional indicators that I use for my trades with goal to compound accounts 10k to 1MM in 26 mos (however, as in last nights post market report, I may kick that up a notch to a 6 month curve – stay tuned).

So for now so detailed pre-market trade plan – after election however very detailed trading plans for each algorithm we have in development. Also, refer to pre and post market reports for last week or so if you wish to view my bias with any specific sector etc.

Momentum Stocks (Market open and Intra)

I explained my position on morning momo stocks in detail in yesterday’s premarket if you’re interested (bottom line they carry risk so I do trade them at times, but I avoid risk).

Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Pre Market Watchlist: $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV) FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), more to come in trading room before market open.  

Markets Today – Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

Some obvious plays here… if Hillary gets last minute bad news I’l scalp $TVIX or $UVXY. If election goes well for her the obviously $XIV would be a decent scalp or swing. If THE Donald wins… watch out lol… volatitility. But either way I think the market gets a lift (if Donald wins market likely does a mini Brexit then lifts). I win everytime here (seriously almost). Brexit, last Jan, last Sept and Oil have been huge bonuses to my accts in addition to compound trading program – so I see the election as a bonus.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar index is the only one I’m really watching – if it gets flight there’s a good play in $TZA. But other than that I’m not interested in playing China or Britain or any other currency related trades until after election.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX etc)

Per yesterday’s post… buy the blood in the streets and buy the over extended pivots and Fib levels (for those that don’t understand pivots and Fib levels – we will be getting in to those indicators and algo indicators after election in detail in the room).

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI $XOP #OOTT #Algo)

Per yesterday “There was a recent time / price cycle change. @EPICtheAlgo is expected to have updates on his Twitter prior to open.”

EPIC published algorithmic updates with alpha algo targets and time / price cycle terminations and traditional charting trendlines representing support and resistance! REVIEW THOSE POSTS IN DETAIL!!! This I have learned is critical. Yesterday’s trade I got that increased my small account portfolio 3.5% was all because I actually listened to the algo and took that trade yesterday.

EPIC expects a big move up or down before end of this Friday so BE SURE TO KNOW YOUR LINES!!!

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Per yesterday and last few weeks (I haven’t done much here because I rely on the algo targets and we don’t expect anything predictable until after election) “Gold, Miners, Silver I was looking for on floor down over last month per my posts and this now may do it. We will watch to election and then start putting out our algorithmic charting and traditional charting and trade it.”

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV and Copper

As above.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ, $DGAZ

Watching for a snap back and how price handles a snap back. Risky still – until otherwise. 2.90 area looks critical to me.

I continue to watch per previous. I was expecting a floor down here (as with Gold and Silver not so much) and the downdraft this morning is significant (enough? not sure yet – ask me after election lol).

Good luck! And remember, we get in to nice predictable algorithmic trading / traditional charting trading with compoound predictability shortly after election (we will just need to let trading settle in to its “natural mathematical state” for each intrument).

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups).

http://finviz.com/, https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

Curtis


My Stock Trading Plan for Monday November 7, 2016.

Election Trading

Premarket reports will not be detailed until after elextion.

I’m sitting tight and will trade scalps until after election. After election we will start on algorithmic trading main targets and trendlines and work with traditional indicators that I use for my trades. So for now I’m not going to get to detailed with pre-market trade plans but after election you will see very detailed trading plans for each algorithm we have in development.

Momentum Stocks

I will at times take first 30 min momo plays if and only if I think I can secure a stop that is tight and get immediate momentum on my side… I know a lot of rooms will take these plays regularly… but they aren’t normally my style because I want clear risk reward on my side and a predictable exit on my side. Compound trading works well if disciplined (and it mitigates unnecessary risk). Nonetheless, I watch morning momo plays not only for the first 30 mins but also, and more importantly, they are often the stocks I trade later in the day when they snap back after a downdraft or they continue to trend (I am looking for technical indicators such as a trending moving average, increased volume, continued trend, and more). 1 snap back or continued trend per day at 1% (or .20 cents on a 20.00 stock) over 26 months is 10k to 1.14 MM or it can be done in 6 months with 4 of these trades a day…. but it has to be low risk so you can execute stops or manual exits with-out stress and undo risk.

So just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time). These I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Markets Today – Volatility $VIX ($XIV, $UVXY, $TVIX, $VXX etc)

Well…. Hillary isn’t guilty they say… so everyone is happy… so we have a $VIX GAP DOWN of 12.5% at time of writing… which in my thinking is awesome… A $VIX in the 19’s is closer to the 13’s or 14’s I’d like to get an entry at and is much better than reaching for 22’s and 23’s… had I only held $XIV over weekend…. but I wasn’t prepared to take the risk… I want 1% a day for 10k to 1MM in 2 years… that’s it… simple… focus.

So the snap back I was all about last week is obviously here…. but I’d be careful with holds Monday and Tuesday night… you never know… things a fucky to say the least.

I’m looking for entries on either side of the range for scalps.. for me that’s it for now with $VIX.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

From last Thursday’s trading plan…

The US Dollar was close to a Fib at 97.07 earlier so this is an interesting watch for possible long in $UUP (long) and watching $UDN close (short a basket of currencies including British Pound).

Well… it got a little better downdraft than 97.07 and snap – back happened – overnight as I write it has snapped back from 96.89 – 97.70… I trade I should not have missed – I had it set-up.

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear. Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically.

I will be watching other currency relationships also for Fib and Pivots and will post as opportunities / time arise.

$SPY ($ES_F, $SPX etc)

I don’t have much to say other than… there’s the snap back and remember to watch the pivots… same here… buy the blood in the streets and buy the over extended pivots and Fib levels (for those that don’t understand pivots and Fib levels – we will be getting in to those indicators after election in detail in the room).

FX: $USOIL $WTI ($CL_F, $USO, $DWTI, $UWTI #OOTT #Algo)

There was a recent time / price cycle change. @EPICtheAlgo is expected to have updates on his Twitter prior to open. Generally speaking it was in a downdraft near some support but at significant risk… but likely a tad over-sold.. and I see at time of writing it is up in over-night trading. I’d be very cautious though – but that’s just an opinion. We’ll see what EPIC’s calculations look like.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Gold, Miners, Silver I was looking for on floor down over last month per my posts and this now may do it. We will watch to election and then start putting out our algorithmic charting and traditional charting and trade it.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

As above.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ, $DGAZ

I continue to watch per previous.

So it’s really all about our current rally, staying nimble through election and then on to charting and trading thereafter with detailed set-ups.

Good luck!

Free Scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute super-nova type plays… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups).

http://finviz.com/https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

Curtis


My Stock Trading Plan for Thursday November 4, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! The election is near, it Payroll day… and will the market continue to sell-off? Even more importantly… can I get to the pool before the rain comes – soooo beautiful during trading hours and then lightening thunder and rain right when I get there – EVERYDAY.

My trading plan today (like my post market report last night) will be very brief… both because we were up all night with equipment and software upgrades and because from now until the election not much has changed….

EXCEPT…

I pivoted late day to a contrarian play and put my money where my mouth is on it and took $XIV trades with BOTH my small day trade account and large swing account. I may or may not move in and out of that position! Stay nimble!

THE MARKET CAN STAY….. you know the rest.

Morning Momentum / Yesterday Gainers:

Prior to election I doubt I will take a morning momo play… after election yes most days I do… but morning momo is going to be a tough play IMO – that is was I have mostly sat on my hands in the morning.

IF YOU WANT TO BLOW UP YOUR ACCOUNT… MESS UP MORNING MOMO!!!

It is a bit early to post momo plays so I will post them as I see them of interest in the room and on my Twitter feed as time allows.

Anyway, from yesterday I am following:

$IQNT, $MPG, $TCCO, $EVI, $ENOC, $DRYS – Shippers and Twitter and others…

Crude Oil – FX $USOIL, $WTI | $USO $DWTI $UWTI $CL_F Etc….

EPIC the Oil Algo new algorithmic calculations are not published yet for the new price / time zone… I wouldn’t expect them until before market open Monday because the price has done NOTHING since it dropped in to it’s new zone… it did slice right through a target on Wed at 10:30 AM (red circles) and looks like it will do the same for today’s 1:00 PM algo target. You can see on the chart how the algos are trading up to the algo trendline (red dotted line) and it has done not much else – but it is UNDER that red dotted line – caution IMO.

Gold, Silver, Miners, Metals… ($JNUG, $JDST, $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $GLD, $SLV, $USLV etc…)

My position is intact… prior to election downdraft I was looking for downdraft (one) in Gold and Silver (if you go back to my posts you will see consistency there) and I also am prepared for Gold and Silver among others to take off… I am watching. Watch $FXY.

Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ… etc)

No clue – no clue at all – it should be running. Just like silver should be IMO.

Volatility $VIX ($UVXY, $XIV, $TVIX etc)

I think $VIX insurance was a tad over-done yesterday… but of course I have been wrong before – so I took a contrarian trade in $XIV and we’ll see. RR was good and I have room in my win rate to fail once in a while:)

US Dollar Index $DXY $UUP and $HYG, $TLT etc..

It is threatening support – I would be cautious. You never know what kind of manipulation is coming over next few trading days – I AM WATCHING IT like a hawk. The dollar, credit, $HYG, $TLT, $DXY, China $CNY and other currencies etc…. I am watching very close.

Twitter

This is such an interesting play for me now – I was interested until recently – but now I am ESPECIALLY with some big name tech companies TANKING.

In Summary… between now and the election it is all about being nimble for me.

The trade room could get really exciting or be the most boring few trading days on record!

Watch the room alerts and my Twitter feed for updates!

Good luck and stay blessed! And please… bank bank bank.

Curt

 

 


My Stock Trading Plan for November 1, 2016.

Good morning Wall Street traders! Trade them well!

On Watch: Momentum Follow-Through Stocks:

Looking for potential follow-through on $BRCO, $INTX, $HMNY, $NTP, $TWTR, $CETX, $NVCN, $ATOS, $AUY

I won’t explain in detail what I’m looking for in this forum (I’ll do that in that trade room for each that are considered as / if they are considered).

Monday’s momo:

$BRCO + 22%

$INTX +25%

$HMNY +7.14%

$NTP + 7.86%

$TWTR +1.64%

$CETX +5.26%

$NVCN +29.96%

$ATOS +21.05%

$AUY +4.09%

On Watch: Morning Momentum stocks TBD.

$SPY Set-up / Volatility $XIV $TVIX $UVXY $VXX 

I think there is a set-up with $SPY… wait for volatility and play it – beyond that I’m not trading $SPY or related instruments because I believe the Fed is in there and has it pinned – period. Not enough width IMO.

$SPY, $TVIX, $XIV, $UVXY

Trading $SPY Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX Etc)

$VIX – Volatility ($XIV, $TVIX, $UVXY, $VXX, etc)

My problem with $VIX is that I can’t take a trade this high in $UVXY etc. because I would want $VIX closer to 13 (but it may get away on me) and I can’t take a trade in $XIV etc because I don’t expect volatility to settle down before the election. So I’m watching very close between now and the election. I believe there will be daily opportunity here starting Wednesday at latest – there was lots of “insurance” buys Monday… so Tuesday may even open an opportunity.

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$VIX 1049 PM Oct 31

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

There is nothing broken in the US Dollar Index chart IMO. The continued targets I’ve previously posted stand unless conditions change.

$DXY, US Dollar Index

$DXY US Dollar Index 1114 PM Nov 1

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust – Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

If you’re thinking of taking a position in Gold Miner’s this is good to follow. Last night it started to turn around and miner’s ran Monday (so no surprise and should have been an easy trade – distracted lol) so watch it if it continues to rise 9/10 times miner’s will follow… I even watch it with Gold plays and even before I take a small cap Gold company or miner position.

$FXY, Yen

$FXY Japanese Yen Trust Oct 31 1121 PM

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear

Watch $DXY US Dollar Index – when it gets flight so does the small cap bear $TZA typically – it can be a great daytrade.

$TZA

$TZA, Small Cap Bear 3x

$SMK / $EWW (Mexico Capped ETF)

If you think Trump is going to win you want to short $EWW or play $SMK (however thinly traded).

Crude Oil: FX $USOIL $WTI | FXCM $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Crude algo intra work sheet 1042 PM ET Oct 31, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

So crude had a significant downdraft Monday (OPEC / non OPEC couldn’t get it together I guess)… and ended up trading down to a diagonal trend-line (blue) from a previous time / price cycle and very near a horizontal price support (purple) and it appears that it will be heading for the nearest target EPIC the Oil Algo called. And to make matters worse (if you review a simple chart) the neckline support with oil has been breached (not that I give that much consideration).

I was going to take a long position in $UWTI at end of day but didn’t and will strongly consider one in the morning.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Looking for entry $GLD at 114.00 / 115.00 area – but I don’t think I will get that before the election.

Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target closer to 1177.00.

On Friday I wrote that I expected Gold Miner’s to run Monday and that occurred – I will be watching them close. There again wanted a pull-back I don’t think I’m going to get.

Going in to election I am very bullish most commodities. I am currently running charts on miner companies too.

$JNUG +7.42% Monday

$JUNG

$JUNG October 31 – Junior Gold Miner’s Bull 3x

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

$SLV, Silver

$SLV Silver

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

Here also, with natural gas I am looking for one level lower for an entry. It’s at 2.99 overnight and an ideal entry would be 2.86 (or at least a review there).

$UGAZ was off 9.42% on Monday so I will watch close Tuesday.

$UGAZ

$UGAZ Oct 31 -9.42%

The Finviz stock screener is available here:  http://finviz.com/.

Look forward to seeing you in the chat room. Visit www.compoundtrading.com and click on the link on the main page to enter the chat room.

Curtis


A review of my daytrades Friday October 28, 2016.

Friday for me (actually all week)… was a tad distracting, which is not what a technical daytrader wants obviously (travelling and trade room set-up etc).

Nonetheless, there was one trade executed (should have been three or four) – and the one was moderately green. BUT! I’m looking forward to next week and I’ve promised myself to keep lazer focused.

The in-depth daily chart / algo reporting with each instrument I’m trading will not only assist the trader’s in the trade room this week – but myself also…. it’s nice to have super lazer focused preparation work to trade from (instead of on the fly – on the fly is not where I personally function best.

Ok, on to what happened today – hopefully my errors will help you avoid the same mistakes or lost opportunities.

The FX: $USOIL $WTI long trade using $UWTI

So we started the day off with the #OPEC shenanigan continuance in Vienna (the birth place of my grandfather BTW), which ended in a no oil deal Saturday and a promise to return to discussions Nov 25, 26 2017.

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/3820.htm

This I was considering as a possible catalyst for a long trade in crude oil, especially considering that the price of oil was below 50.00 and the oil producers have an amazing knack of timing their announcements right at critical points in the oil chart – even down to the termination of time / price cycles in oil. I’m convinced they are no slouches because they’re releasing announcements or chatter at points EPIC the oil algo has even identified as critical – time and time again. So knowing that EPIC had identified time / price cycle terminations and the fact that critical support was being tested AND that the price of oil was sub 50.00 was opportune timing for an announcement – but we didn’t get one – which was WAY OUT OF PATTERN for the oil producers.

$DXY was testing support… but crude was at a support that I wanted to take a trade from (it wasn’t preferable to take a crude trade when $DXY was testing support – you want $DXY to fail resistance preferably and crude to bounce and confirm off support ideally)… but I took the trade anyway because the chances of a bounce were considerable (probabilities were on my side with support bounce for sure). The other consideration was EPIC the oil Algo’s primary alpha algo targets. THE MISTAKE I MADE was that I was dealing with phone calls and various service people for the set-up of our trade room and I set a stop – and it triggered. I hate stops and usually don’t use them. Anyway, there was a small gain. Crude did take off for a nice trade after my stop was triggered but tanked to EPIC’s primary alpha algo target zone when news hit about Anthony Wiener. Which blew my mind because that was EPIC’s primary target – funny in my thinking. Epic is Epic and I should just surrender to it.

Anyway, here is that time period on Friday…

$DXY US Dollar testing support (not ideal for a long crude oil trade – I use $UWTI specifically)

My $UWTI long execution.

$DXY now at low of day… not the best scenario (I didn’t know at the time that the dollar was going to tank and breach shortly thereafter).

My distracted stop for small gain – ugh… especially when you consider what happened next…

So to throw fuel on my wounded supertrader spirit $DXY then breached a diagonal support… and I was awe man seriously? Weak dollar… strong oil (in a normal world).

So here’s the spike in oil after my stop exit… (BTW – the lower alpha algo target on this chart was actually misplace in accordance to EPIC’s call – EPIC’s target was much lower – which funny enough got a hit in the target zone – not perfect but in the zone).

So crude $USOIL $WTI got a really decent bounce before it tanked and would have been a fantastic trade (likely 4% on $UWTI – I didn’t actually look yet lol – painful) and then the price tanked right in to the target zone (not a perfect hit) but holy price tank thanks to Anthony Weiner news. If you look through EPIC the oil algo’s history on our website and on Epic the Oil Algo’s Twitter Feed you will see time and time again how right before the alpha target call the price of oil magically spikes or drops (and many times dramatically) right in to the target zone or very very close. It’s really interesting if you look at it over time.

The price of crude oil tanking right in to the primary alpha algo target zone EPIC had identified.

Below is EPIC’s call on it earlier in the week… the percentage represents how many times out of 100 EPIC has calculated that exact target will hit – and yup… the primary target zone hit – crazy IMO… I’m his inventor and I still struggle to understand how pure math can determine primary targets days in advance 92% or so of the time… and that’s not even the best way to use EPIC – the best way is intraday (which we will be doing lots of in the room). The intraday quadrants aren’t even represented on these recent charts – you can go back in to EPIC’s story to see the intra-day quadrant work sheet (which doesn’t do anyone any good now for trading because the time/price cycle has changed since, but it will show you what I mean – they look like diamonds – they’re pink)… anyway those quadrants allow for precise intra-day trading success easily over 90% scalping all day long (we had to remove them from the current charts because we’re in the process of patent applications).

Then on to the $VIX trade I missed lol – what a day…

So at this point $VIX was at resistance (if you can really say it has support and resistance)… but anyway – it is an indicator of sorts… so I was watching close for it to take off.. and then yup – you guessed it – I got distracted with other details in my business life lol and then WIENER presented the BEST TRADE OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK!!! Ugh… anyway I would have been all over $TVIX trade but nope… SO STAY FOCUSED! That’s Lesson #2 so far in this post (Lesson #1 was follow your trade plan unlike I did with oil above).

Here’s the Anthony Weiner announcement…

So the $TVIX trade was worth an easy 10% gain…

$TVIX trade

$TVIX trade

I guess the only other main daytrade miss I had was $JNUG, and my trade-plan with it was simply based on the fact that the day before $JDST got a serious lift (at one point it was +8.18%)… so I was watching for a natural pull-back and a bounce in $JNUG. SO the opportunity came just before lunch and at the double-bottom that would have been an excellent place to enter.

$JUNG Trade

$JUNG Trade

There were other miscellaneous things… but that’s the bulk of lessons from my errors of the day as I see it.

BE SURE TO READ THE PRE-MARKET REPORT BEFORE MONDAY OPEN!!! Oil and metals are VERY LIKELY going to have a big week. Not to mention the market in general considering the election turmoil.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Curtis


Good morning stock traders!

$SPY $ES_F

I don’t expect any $SPY related trading until election unless there is some unexpected “width” in trade.

$VIX – $TVIX $UVXY $XIV

I do expect to be trading $VIX related instruments between now and election… however, with current chart I would like an entry when $VIX closer to 13. It is currently 15.2.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP) – $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW

$DXY is far from broken – break-out still intact. Upside resistance levels. Currently at 98.84. Look for further run in $DXY ($UUP), $FXY (Japan Yen) continued pressure,  $CNY (China Renminbi/USD ETN) continued deval, possible continued run with $TZA (small cap bear), and $SMK / $EWW (Mexico) I am watching for an election play.

FX $USOIL $WTI – $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Crude #Oil

Crude is well above its traditional charting diagonal and horizontal trend line supports and within its trading range. EPIC the Oil algorithm published targets for 1:00 today and current price action is almost perfectly between the two main alpha algo targets published. There is a significant time / price cycle terminating no later than Tuesday Nov 1 at 9:00 PM ET and normally price will move in or out of current trading range before the termination. In this case my bet is a movement before 4:30 PM Tuesday but it could be anytime now.

Gold / Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

I was looking for an entry in $GLD at the 114.00 / 115.00 area (intra-day price 120.98) – but I don’t think now I will get that before the election (that was the plan so I will watch). Gold at 1266.65 is still one level up from my target.

Even with the pressure on the miner’s yesterday (even though a pull-back is likely short-term), I am looking for that move to continue over next week – again with election things are more difficult to future cast.

Going in to election however, I am very bullish most commodities. WITHIN DAYS I WILL BE HUNTING DOWN company equities specific to a strong move I see coming very very SOON.

Silver – $SLV, $USLV, $DSLV

My position with Silver ($SLV) is similar as that with Gold ($GLD) in that I am waiting for one more downdraft – here again I may not get that.

Natural Gas – $UGAZ $DGAZ

My thesis was the recent run-up (which we got and I miss timed) – but short term as with Gold I expect on level down in the elevator (again, could be wrong) so that is what I will watch for.

Summary

With all of the charts relating to the above I will be watching for support and resistance levels that make sense to trade (trying to only take trades on major pivots is important). Next week our charting and algo charting publications will become very detailed (in separate reports) which will make this discussion and trade planning more clear as a result of the detail (and the chat room / broadcasting will be going live – that will help clarity and intra-trading too).

Have a great day! May you bank and bank more! Freedom is calling your name!

Curt

PS: Other…

US GDP on deck as I write – looks like a small increase..

Rig count today 13:00 EST

Premarket: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616695/a-peek-into-the-markets-u-s-stock-futures-edge-higher-alphabet-posts-upb

12 Stocks To Watch:
AMGN, AMZN, CVX, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, Earnings, EXPE, GOOGL, Health Care.

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/10/8616065/12-stocks-to-watch-for-october-28-2016

 

 


Today (yesterday really as this is late) was a frustrating day… two triggers and two losses and zero wins – one of the first days like that for a while. Fortunately the entries were not huge.

Hopefully some of my mistakes will help your trading.

$SPY $XIV $TVIX $UVXY

I am likely going to stay away from $SPY related trades until the election and $VIX related trades until right before the election.

$DXY US Dollar Index

The day started with the $DXY threatening… and oil initially did respond to it but as the day progressed oil continued to get lift off the diagonal trendline (blue on oil charts). So that was my first miss (lesson # 1) – the trend line was a high probability trigger that I should have pulled on (I would have been long $UWTI).

FX: $USOIL $WTI

As the US Dollar continued its assault $TZA continued to rise (a reminder of my alert near bottom a number of days ago that I didn’t take full advantage of) – lesson # 2.

$UGAZ

Lesson # 3 is in following through with your trade plan. Now, it is important to understand the difference between a intra-day swing trade plan and my normal trade method. My normal method is to “time” an entry so that I pull the trigger literally right before a spike so that I get 1 – 3% room to decide if I want to stay in a trade through the pullback etc… when I entered $UGAZ I wasn’t confident I’d get that 1 – 3%… I got a bit and then it pulled back and it became uncomfortable and I sold AND THEN OF COURSE IT RAN. So the lesson was obviously if I had a plan for it (which I did as I did foresee it running) then I should have been prepared for the pullback. Anyway, in the trade room I’ll be able to explain in advance of pulling trigger which trade is which type in advance of pulling trigger. Bottom line… should have stayed in it because it went in to rippy mode shortly after I sold. I should also note that when I pulled the trigger, part of the reason was I thought I’d get a bounce off the 200 MA on the 1 min as it did bounce in that way earlier a few times.

White arrows are entry and exit – you can see my entry was right above 200 and it didn’t hold. That should have either caused me to exit immediately or hold for the full swing.

$UGAZ trade - 200 MA on 1 Minute chart failed.

$UGAZ trade – 200 MA on 1 Minute chart failed.

Gold Miners – $DUST $JDST (Bear) / $NUGT $JNUG $GDX $GDXJ (Bull) / #Gold $GLD

Lesson #4 for the day was the inverse Gold Miner’s trade… I was all over it the night before and in the morning and got distracted with the $UGAZ trade… $JDST and $DUST were great trade opportunities missed.

$CVI – CVR Energy

This was actually a good risk reward and when it didn’t spike on a double bottom after a significant downdraft I did exit – so my risk reward was intact and normally I win in this trade. It didn’t turn my way this time… but I wouldn’t do it any different next time. You have to accept the risk with this trade.

So those were my lessons for the day! Hopefully the help your trading some!

Stay blessed and see you for Friday session soon!

Curt

 


Good morning, Stock Traders! Earnings season is in full gear and everybody is happy (for now).

Yesterday was awesome with a 9.2% portfolio gain… looking to trade for at least 1% compound today (3% goal daily).

Today’s premarket trading plan will be quick – we’re burning 20 hour days getting everything ready for pre-launch.

$SPY ($ES_F)

Futures are “just” in the green – range bound boredom trade continues… there is a wedge that terminates near election day… wouldn’t you know it. No play for me here yet… I’ll be watching the volatility side close though.

I would expect S&P, DOW, NASDAQ and world markets in general to be up until at least early Tuesday next week (unless geopolitical issues hit). Yes, WikiLeaks may have a major drop on Hillary or Donald.

$VIX ($XIV, $TVIX, $XIV)

Continue on watch until election… I missed the trigger yesterday and will continue to watch… with Friday on deck I don’t expect volatility until early next week now at earliest so there may be an entry possible.

FX $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $CL_F, #OIL, #Crude, #OOTT)

This is one of the more interesting plays… EPIC the algo put out revised Friday alpha algo targets FYI.

Crude is holding on to horizontal trend-line supports (purple on chart), is holding on to diagonal trend-line support (blue) and holding Alpha algo diagonal trend-line (red)… all of which keeps it just above support… barely – one rumor and this will get great lift. The $DXY of course plays in (correlation seems somewhat delayed and then instant). There are two moderate time / price cycles ending at latest 2:30 PM ET today and a major one at November 1 at 10:30 PM ET. The time / price cycles (do change as chart builds out, so that’s why I regularly update them) but more importantly can definitely cause significant price lift or not. So look for moderate lift or downdraft before 2:30 PM ET today and for sure before Wed morning next week. My suspicion is a rumor is coming because they time the rumors with the near termination of time / price cycles every single time (if price is at risk near support).

I am looking for a long $UWTI.

Crude oil chart / algorithm

Crude algo intra work sheet 846 AM ET Oct 27, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

$DXY – US Dollar 

$DXY continues… nothing is broken – break out is still alive. I posted upper resistance on my twitter feed to watch for – they have been correct within cents so far.

I am looking at $TZA again if Dollar gets lift. I’ll also be watching the support in crude chart next time Dollar lifts.

I will at times play $UUP with US Dollar.

Watching $CNY for continued deval.

Also looking at $SMK (although thinly traded) as a play if Donald gets lift in poles (inverted Mexico ultra-short).

Gold $GLD $NUGT, Silver $SLV, and Natty Gas $UGAZ $DGAZ…

With all three I was expecting on more floor down before the election, and we may get it… so I’m looking for that… if they take off before I get my one floor done I may chase.

Charts and Algorithmic Reports

For the algorithms we are working with $SPY, Silver, Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, US Dollar $DXY etc… we will start publishing pre-market and post-market reports for EACH every market day starting NEXT WEEK!!!

Watch my Twitter feed for intra real-time calls and the trade room starting next week – IT ALL HAPPENS intra-day. I know the GURUS are all about the plan… but that’s most useful with company equities and all the DD they have to do in that momo game… I’ll play for fun but my 1% compound daily (10k to 1.14MM in 26 mos) comes from plays like above and more importantly from intra-day movements providing opportunity for the 1%.

Stay blessed and bring home some bacon today! And remember… Coffee is for closers!

Curt


My Day Trading Results Re-Cap

Today for me was the “miss the perfect setups trigger day” – but I still ended up on the positive side. For me it’s all about 1% a day compounded (and hopefully someday soon 3% – it’s getting close). If you haven’t seen my compound chart of 1% per day starting w 10k compounds to 1.14MM you should check out https://compoundtrading.com/lead-trader/ and I think I’ll do a full post on it soon. But bottom line is that when you focus on simple 1% days (understanding compounding money principles) it is a way less stressful and more forgiving way to trade. You avoid the hype… the pumps… all the company DD research… the risk… and on and on. You just need to know why equities trigger an intra-day spike (trigger there and watch for 1% or not) and from there it’s pretty easy.

Anyway, I had a number of setups ready right before the bell and missed the better ones (got distracted). So, I am learning that balancing day trading and a live chat room/broadcast startup requires more focus during market hours.

Here’s what happened (my wins and losses), so hopefully it helps your trading.

$UNIS

The first setup I looked at. It was a morning scan MOMO (morning momentum) possibility from a few days ago that I thought will get lift or drop (the 3 day rule http://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-the-3-day-rule-when-trading-stocks.aspx). For short sellers this is an ideal set-up – but sometimes they surprise and run so I like to watch for that because if the shorts get caught on a 3 day rule and it goes opposite – the win can be really good.

$UNIS

And, it just faded – so I left it alone.

$UA – Under Armour

Next up was Under Armour. This one had a bad downdraft on earnings / downgrade. https://www.thestreet.com/story/13868610/1/under-armour-ua-stock-retreats-cowen-downgrades-on-outlook.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

So, another morning play I will use (that normally works well) to get 1% – 3% quick pops is timing the bottom up spike. It got a really good downdraft here at 9:51 and the stock dropped.

At 10:10 I hit the buy.

Added at 10:13

10:19 I was out for a small gain – I noted it as a small loss on twitter but didn’t go back and do a correction because my day was so hectic (you will find my alerts sometimes distracted lol). Anyway, average buy 32.82 and out at 33.07 for .25 cents on 400 shares / 100.00 – not the 1% I was looking for).

$UA Stock Trade

$UA Stock Trade

$TZA – 3x Small Cap Bear ETF

Then I posted a perfect set-up with the small cap bear ETF I’ve been watching – around the election especially I’m watching this one like (it should be a hawk) – BUT FOR THE SECOND TIME in less than a week I was distracted and missed my trigger – it was such a nice trade – easy 3% or better. And frankly, there’s no excuse – as easy as taking candy from a baby.

And here’s where I would have triggered and it was sooo perfect. Absolutely no excuse – it was a text book trigger on the 1.

$TZA Stock Trade Trigger Missed

$TZA Stock Trade Trigger Missed

$DXY

So when I seen the US Dollar Index at support… that was my first trigger alert for $TZA – because the $DXY is the $TZA killer…

$VIX

Then I was on to the $VIX – which was my SECOND trigger missed – I was looking at a $TVIX or $UVXY intra-day trade – and yup – distracted and missed it. Again… so perfect. I posted when $VIX was threatening resistance and $DXY was at support and $SPY was in downdraft mode… simple simple simple. #distracted ugh.

$SPY

Here was the downdraft in $SPY and the resistance above… and when $SPY is in downdraft till things sort out.

$VIX

So here’s where $VIX broke resistance and all I had to do was wait for the back-test and possible consolidation… but ya… nope.

$USOIL $WTI

Then came the oil report… my thinking was I wasn’t sure if the upper algo target or the lower was more likely – I didn’t think we were going to see a draw down… but EPIC the oil Algo had the lower alpha algo target as most probable… anyway… almost both targets hit but I wasn’t confident in it so I though I’ll go for the build side of the bet with a volatility play and entered $TVIX with a super-tight stop – a wham – it got hit instantly for a small loss. Not the normal way I’d play the oil report FYI. So I was down .8 cents on 400 shares or (32.00) – so at this point 68.00 up on the day.

$OPGN

Then I took scanner alert trade in $OPGN in at 1.16 out 1.22 within mins at 9,000 shares / 540.00 – now I’m up 608.00 on the day.

$OPGN stock trade

$OPGN stock trade

$WTI / $USOIL

Ended up EPIC’s oil calls were almost perfectly spot on.. again I was distracted and was a little confused on my twitter feed posts etc.

So there’s the beautiful $VIX trade I missed with $TVIX

$TVIX missed stock trade (ETN)

$TVIX missed stock trade (ETN) – soooo perfectly set-up.

$UGAZ

Then I went long $UGAZ. This is another algorithm we’re working on that is on-deck. The algo is saying 44% today hit bottom (which means 44 out of 100 times – so the idea is to get a probability from the algorithm so the trader can decide to trigger or not)… anyway… the algorithm is also saying that 46% there is another leg down (or 46 times out of a 100). So I thought I’d take a trade and should have (because yes I had it set-up) entered earlier in day for a better gain. Nonetheless I got a decent little intra-day trade.

So my entry average fill was at 34.19 and exit at 34.95 (got real lucky in that time frame exiting snipe – should have been about .10 less) for .76 cents on 500 shares / 380.00 or 920.00 on the day.

I know with many small accounts for US citizens there are certain rules with leverage and 3 trade rules etc. I regularly start a 10k account and build… but I often trade over 10k closer to 16k and sell before the end of the day. The specifics of why my broker in Canada lets me do that I’m not sure and how that works for US citizens – but I’m going to look in to that so I really understand better.

I will put out a pre-market trade plan in the morning!

Stay blessed!

PS Here’s my running win rate.