Tag Archives: markets

PART 1: How to Swing Trade Volatility $VIX Time-Cycles and Achieve Much Higher Gains (ROI) in Equities, Commodities, Indices, Crypto and Theme Trades. 

In my opinion, this is the single most important skill a trader can possess, charting and trading time-cycle inflections within the markets.

Below is Part 1 of my new $STUDY guide series for swing traders and daytraders alike.

I am asked all the time why my Swing Trading win percentage is high, most assume I am a mystic of some sort because I always write about or share on social media charting or comments relating to market time-cycles. Seriously, people message me all the time with these sorts of assertions or questions.

In the technical analysis work I do in time-cycles there is nothing mystic about it at all. I don’t sit on a tripod, I don’t meditate (at least in the way you might imagine), I don’t look to the stars or special numbers. I use structural mathematical chart modeling and more often than not geometric charting structures built on Fibonacci levels.

Every financial instrument has a natural trading structure, patterns or as some refer to it as chart memory.

In nature all entities have a natural order or structure, this is the premise of Fibonacci. Financial instruments are natural in that they are traded on public markets by humans – this makes the instruments natural in structure.

However, there are times where specific events such as world calamities occur like COVID-19 Black Swan Event, the Iraq war, the 911 terrorist attack etc.

During these times the trading structure of financial instruments is more often than not divergent – or trading outside of its natural structure.

Central bank intervention (QE) can also cause divergent trade within a stock, commodity, indices etc as can company news (referring to publicly traded stocks). The smaller the company the more opportunity for divergent trade outside of the natural structure. Here the trade instrument or market liquidity becomes important.

If then random events cause the natural trade action of a stock (or whatever) to not be normal this is usually accompanied by increased volatility. A great example of this is the recent COVID-19 Black Swan Event and how it affected various markets around the world.

A specific example can be seen in the trade action of crude oil futures, and more specifically the trade volatility of crude oil, which is called or traded as symbol $OVX . Oil volatility (OVX) was trading in the 20’s (where we were accumulating based on time cycle work) and when the Black Swan event hit the price of $OVX Oil Volatility hit 334.00s, an incredible win. This was all based on time cycle work.

Below is a chart showing the trade action of OVX (Oil Volatility) during the COVID-19 Black Swan Event.

Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) chart showing oil trade volatility spiking from the 20s to 330s during black swan event.

So if we know that specifically time cycle events (that normally come with increased volatility) occur within public markets then is it possible that knowing the structure of volatility (VIX) itself and related financial instruments such as oil volatility (OVX) can assist with a trader’s bias for trading various stocks, metals, currencies, crypto, indices and more?

The answer is yes. But it gets better.

Each instrument itself has its own natural order, or structure. The instrument structure say for example with Apple (AAPL) stock can then be charted on various time-frames from weekly, daily, hourly etc (we chart on thirteen time-frames). This provides a trader with the structure of timing for volatility and price trajectory on various time-frames, for investing, swing trading and daytrading.

And it even gets better (like the TV commercials haha) because when a trader understands how the volatility (VIX) and market time-cycles can line up and also with various themes (for example stock or sector themes) then things get really interesting for your ROI because now you have all structures of trade firing together in a symbiotic fashion. It becomes pure trading ecstasy.

This my friends is why our swing trading platform is so successful and why we structure our trade bias the way we do.

When the iron is hot we strike (time cycles) and when it cools we are taking profit and in deep $STUDY of the financial instrument structures and time cycles.

Another recent example is when the market bull seemed as though it would never stop, and four days before it stopped in a very volatile fashion we publicly announced that we were taking our profits and leaving our long positions behind, we cashed out. This, was done with time cycle work.

The tweet below explains (and shows the actual swing trade alerts) of some of our time cycle work,

I am explaining that I knew about the Black Swan event coming (called it Dec 19, 2019) and then on February 13, 2020 4 days before the market started to collapse we publicly announced we were taking our profits in the bull run home and closing longs.

And then even better yet, we sized in to shorting NIKE, WYNN and MASTERCARD for epic wins. This is where your profits are, in the time cycle inflections, everything else is $STUDY and positioning (managing size and getting your position and trajectory of trade right for the boom).

“Dec 19 call for pins to be pulled, last time cycle published, Feb 13 out of long positions 90% (publicly) then we hammered down short $NKE $WYNN $MA etc..

Why is this important?

For a victory lap? How bout truth.

#Timecycles, market instrument structure.

Natural law.”

So in part two of this article (it will be Premium member only) we will look specifically at Volatility (VIX) and how the time cycles within volatility work and then we’ll move to various stock theme swing trades we are looking at in this current time cycle along with also doing some articles over the coming days on the trade set-ups within this cycle for crypto, metals, indices, currencies and more.

This time period now is all about getting ready, understanding how time cycles work, starting to get our positioning in the various themes of trade and watching for the trajectories to line up between now and the peak of the next time cycle and the one after.

Also, before I forget, I am also going to be covering in articles for our members soon the need for a proper trading plan before entering your trade including how to size your trade, how to ebb and flow the support and resistance within the structure, sizing and trading the time cycle inflections of the instrument and more.

If you need help with a trade set-up email me at [email protected].

Thanks,

Curt

Part Two in this $STUDY Series can be found here: