Gold Trading Update Monday Dec 26 – GOLD $GLD ($UGLD, $DGLD) Miners: $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG) Chart and Algorithm Observations
Dec 26, 2016 Rosie the Gold Algo Trading Report (public edition).
Good day! My name is Rosie the Gold Algo. Welcome to my new public edition Gold trade report (public editions do not include proprietary algorithmic modeling).
The member edition (that includes the algorithmic trading levels) will be published and in your email inbox before market open Tuesday!
These reports will become more and more detailed as the days and weeks go forward. You can follow my intra day tweets here https://twitter.com/ROSIEtheAlgo.
IMPORTANT NOTICES:
NEW TRADING ROOM OPTION: There is now an option for trading room only – non-bundled version https://compoundtrading.com/product/standalone-live-trading/ at 59.00 a month (vs bundled version with morning newsletter and alerts at 119.00). There are limited orders available at 38.2% discount (200 max) FYI.
DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on individual merit) such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and other mathematical or geometric factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of Gold. As such, my reports are a transparent exploratory review of traditional indicators that I weave in to algorithmic modeling over time as the posts progress over days, weeks and months. Please review our algorithm development process and about our story on our website www.compoundtrading.com, my charting posts on my Twitter feed and this blog. And finally, to view our first algorithm in action (a more built out model) view EPIC the Oil algo posts and or social feeds – I am the second of six in development at Compound Trading.
FEATURE POST: There is a feature blog post at this link, “Why our Stock Algorithms are Different than Most“. If you are viewing our algorithmic model charting it is a must read.
PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from public inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices (including price increases) will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 I will have a rate increase as my model rolls over from early stage – but as with all our offerings, existing members will be grandfathered at locked-in current rates. You can subscribe to the Gold algo member edition here.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is scheduled to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program.
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered as one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.
Gold Trading Observations:
A Review:
Through-out summer and fall 2016 we were warning against a bullish bias to gold and by early Oct 2016 we were giving specific price targets – one price target for 1163.00 and another even lower that would find Gold at the bottom of the quadrant in our published charts (we published a 90% probability). As of writing (Dec 26, 2016) both of these price targets have been hit. Here are a few examples of our alerts / tweets;
1163 Gold Price Target
Gold trade hitting price target.
Warning that there was a 90% probability that Gold would have to visit bottom of quadrant on chart (representing further downside).
Dec 15 perfect touch to PT alert Nov 25. Gold Algo Model Chart Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miner $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Alerting members to watch for the 100 day to be regained:
As of Dec 26 the 100 day MA has not been regained.
100 Day MA on 1 Week Chart – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Nov 25 I alert that when the 200 MA crosses the 100 MA on the 5 min that could be an area for a pop in price (for scalping daytrade):
Below is what happened the next time the 200 MA crossed the 100 MA on the 5 min. IT STARTED WITH 20 MA cross to upside of 50 and 20 to 200 MA then 20 over 100 however.
200 MA Crossing 100 MA on 5 Min Chart – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
200 MA Crossing 100 MA on 5 Min Chart – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
On Nov 28, 2016 I cautioned / alerted members that the price of Gold had not yet touched the bottom of the algorithmic model quadrant (explaining at various times there was a 90% chance it needed to before a trend reversal could take place) and was testing the top of the quadrant (which represents resistance).
Gold trading price since alert (above) – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Gold trading price since alert – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Alerting again to wait for bottom of quadrant before considering long position in Gold:
Dec 18, 2016 published a Keep It Simple Gold chart to watch 100 MA on 1 Week for buy / sell triggers:
Trading under 100 MA on 1 Wk – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Trading under 100 MA on 1 Wk – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Dec 23, 2106 Alerted that components of a Golden Cross was possibly setting up in the trade of Gold (one bullish signal in charting) – 50 MA crossing 200 MA in this instance..
And of course along the way we watched the USDJPY
Current Trading:
At time of writing Gold is trading at 1133.17. Some thoughts that may help advance you trading edge;
Trading at 1133.17 – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Trading at 1133.17 – Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
This chart from Dec 5, 2016 shows Gold hitting price target and top of quadrant but not bottom of quadrant where white arrow is – BUT it has hit bottom of quadrant since.
Hit my PT from July call but not lower quad. Gold algo intra work sheet 558 AM Dec 5 $GOLD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Refer to algorithmic modeling quadrants, targets, lines, time and price cycles below for information going forward.
Golden Cross:
The elements of a Golden Cross are setting up in Gold. The 50 MA crossing the 200 MA.
Golden Cross setup 50 MA crossing 200 MA. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Applications of the Golden Cross
The most commonly used moving averages are the 50-period and the 200-period moving average. The period represents a specific time increment. Generally, larger time periods tend to form stronger lasting breakouts. For example, the daily 50-day moving average crossover up through the 200-day moving average on an index like the S&P 500 is one of the most popular bullish market signals. With a bell weather index, the motto “A rising tide lifts all boats” applies when a golden cross forms as the buying resonates throughout the index components and sectors. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp
Moving Averages:
100 MA on 1 week. A very predictable indicator of longer range trading trend.
Price still trading under 100 MA on 1 Week. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Price still trading under 100 MA on 1 Week. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Intra-day, 20MA crossing 50, 100, 200 example om 1 minute. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Intra-day, 20MA crossing 50, 100, 200 example. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
For daytrading our traders use 20 MA cross 50 MA with 100 and 200 on right side on 2 hour. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
So basically the set-up is on the 2 hour chart – the MA’s need to be on opposite side of chart below. This set-up has proven effective if you back-test it.
For daytrading our traders use 20 MA cross 50 MA with 100 and 200 on right side. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Using 50 MA crossing upside 20 MA as sell signal. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Then you can use the 50 crossing up over 20 as your sell signal – or as our traders often do they turn to tighter time-frames, but I think you get the idea.
Using 50 MA crossing upside 20 MA as sell signal. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Fibonacci:
Fibonacci Levels to watch. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
The chart below is literally a work sheet our trader’s are using while this post is being written – so don’t use this at home – in a way that you would typically use Fib levels. In other words, we are in the middle of running hit rates in different time frames with Fibs – you can however refer to the levels in the chart and view how price interacts with the levels on the chart. These are intra levels our traders are using to trade Gold related equities Tuesday (possible support and resistance areas).
Fibonacci Levels to watch. Gold Algorithmic Model Chart Observation Work Sheet $GLD $UGLD, $DGLD Miners $GDX $NUGT $DUST $JDST $JNUG
Seasonality:
GOLD Seasonality over 32 years peaks in Jan
GOLD Seasonal Average Spot
GOLD Volatility Peaks in Jan 37 Years
Gold Intraday Average 10 Year chart
Gold and the US Dollar:
Algorithmic Modeling Member Section
Alpha Algo Trading Lines:
Proprietary – exclusive to member edition (due before market open).
Alpha Algo Trading Price Targets:
Proprietary – exclusive to member edition (due before market open).
Intra Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
Proprietary – exclusive to member edition (due before market open).
Time / Price Cycle Change Forecast:
Proprietary – exclusive to member edition (due before market open).
Gold News:
Gold Copper Ratio tells us difficult days ahead. http://seekingalpha.com/article/4032727-gold-copper-ratio-tells-us-difficult-days-ahead-gold
Gold and Gold Miner Equities on Watch:
Which Gold Miners Could Provide a Valuation Upside in 2017? A complete listing in early Jan 2017 member editions.
Resource Stock Seasonality:
Included in upcoming issues early Jan 2017.
Gold Miners Trade Study:
Included in upcoming issues early Jan 2017.
Algorithmic Modeling Indicators:
As I explained above, my algorithm is a consolidation of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This “consolidation” is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets / algo lines / algo quadrants / time and price cycles).
Good luck with your trades and look forward to seeing you in the room!
Rosie the Gold Algo
Article Topics: Rosie Gold Algo, Chart, Stocks, Fibonacci, Stocks, Wallstreet, Trading, Chatroom, Gold, Algorithms, $GOLD $GLD, $UGLD, $DGLD, Miners, $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG
