A Reliable Method to Determine in Advance Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High Price, Trading Trend and Timing for Your Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 1).
The systematic process below that includes actual time stamped oil trade alerts, live video from our oil trading room and charts from our oil trade chat room is easily identifiable when the right signals of trade are in play on any day that you are trading crude oil.
The method below can be learned and reproduced by any trader that studies the trading set-up and strategy explained.
When a trader knows with high probability the likely range of trade for the day then a trading strategy for daytrading can be put in to place.
If you know the likely high of day, low of day, reversal area, trend of trade for the day and the likely timing of the price target areas / reversals this goes a long way to help you with your day trade strategy for executing trades. You can then execute your trades in accordance to those signals until they are no longer relevant or in play.
Hopefully in sharing what happened today in our oil trading room this will help you with your oil daytrading strategy in future.
Part One of this Article will show you how trade transpired today, what we alerted, the charting as it happened, the models we used to determine the high price of day, low price of day, time cycle peak for price targets, the trend on day and more.
Part Two of this Article will explain how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own daytrading strategy for crude oil trade.
June 16 Update – Part Two of this Article is Now Complete and can be viewed by clicking here.
Today was the weekly EIA Report at 10:30 AM. There was a substantial build reported. Below is a copy of a tweet from ZeroHedge.
Crude oil +6.77MM, Exp. -0.5MM
Gasoline +3.21MM
Distillate +4.57MM
Cushing +1.79MM
Crude oil +6.77MM, Exp. -0.5MM
Gasoline +3.21MM
Distillate +4.57MM
Cushing +1.79MMOh that's why oil is plunging
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 5, 2019
Prior to the EIA report coming out I was concerned about it and let the trading room know right before it was announced (the live video is in this article). Even though I expected the oil price to collapse I didn’t trade it down because we were in the last part of our final coding of our machine trade – so I was doing double duty (I wanted to get done).
So the report comes out and oil starts to collapse (you can see all this on the video from the oil trading room for those learning about how oil trades and what to watch for).
At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.
Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.
Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.
You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.
Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.
improved structure, likely near term low in
Oil trade alert, trading room alert low of day price crude oil reversal trend in play.
Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).
I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.
2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line
Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.
Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.
Screen shot oil trading room trade alert high of day price target timing for reversal for oil trading strategy.
Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.
Image shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted
Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).
Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean
And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.
maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22
Image from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets.
Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.
After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.
this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down
Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action.
Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.
Last weeks quad action
This week quad action
Two chart images for crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in model. Confirming signals.
The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.
peaking in to time cycle intra
The final two trading room images below show that price time cycle reversal oil trade short alerted earlier.
Next, in Part Two of this article (sent to premium members) I will explain exactly how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own day trading strategy for crude oil trade.
I will explain trade signals such as how to know where the time cycles are, what the expected high of day and low of day is most probable and what the trend on the day should be.
Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Price Targets, Time Cycle
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There are two primary reasons to consider a swing trade / investment (hedge) in AngloGold Ashanti (AU) (or similar companies).
This is Part Two of the Swing Trading AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) Report.
The first reason is that a global market time cycle is near or at peak and the other is in preparation for a coming scenario we see very possible – a revamp of our global economic structure.
Both reasons (market time cycles and a possible revamp in our global economic structure) will be topics I will cover in great detail in client reports in near future.
I won’t be explaining either of the two scenarios in this report, but I will for now point out the following;
- Portfolio Protection (Hedge). If I am correct about the near term time cycle completion in global markets, AngloGold is a decent portfolio protection trade should increased volatility come to the markets, and
- Economic Structure Revamp (Two Scenarios). If I am correct (further out in terms of years and not decades) that a significant global economic structural revamp is in fact in play, there is a high probability that corporations such as AngloGold will be fantastic trades / investments / portfolio hedging instruments of trade. I will be reporting on two scenarios for the economic structural revamp I see coming, one in which companies like AngloGold will do well and another scenario in which companies such as AngloGold will not do so well. It will be up to the trader / investor to watch as one of two scenarios play out – both I will present so we are prepared in advance.
In this report I present a weekly structural chart of AngloGold. It is a noisy chart but if you take the time to work with it you will find that the signals you most need to plan a successful swing trade and / or investment in AngloGold are very likely detailed on the charting below.
The AngloGold Ashanti (AU) chart below details the following scenarios / indicators for your swing trade and or investment (hedge) strategy (timing of entries etc);
- Bullish Scenarios – There are three white arrows that predict three possible uptrend scenarios, you can consider these possible price trajectories should AngloGold start to trend up. I won’t explain in detail how they are derived other than to say that symmetry plays a large part as does time cycle theory and Fibonacci levels. Simply put, if price starts to trend with one of the arrows, follow the trajectory for a trade and consider all other lines on the chart as possible support and retrace considerations for entries, exits, adding to or trimming your trade size.
- Gann Waves – The other scenario is not as bullish, but takes in to consideration an uptrend, slower and not as bullish in trajectory. The Gann Waves on the chart are the diagonal lines with multi-colors. Follow the wave in which price is trading and it is that simple. Long considerations at the bottom of each support area and trimming longs near the top of each.
- Fibonacci Levels – And the third indicator on the charting are the Fibonacci levels, the most important of which are marked with white arrows. You can ebb and flow a long trade taking in to consideration those support and resistance levels. The diagonal Fib trendlines are also included but are of less importance (grey dotted diagonal). And finally the horizontal Fibonacci lines are included. The Fibonacci lines are structurally motivated to the instrument and not conventional. In other words, the Fibonacci structure (overlay) on this chart is for mid to long term thinking / trade planning.
Other reasons for considering this trade;
- Price is above the 200 MA on the weekly. This is a significant signal for a long position.
- The MACD is crossed up on the daily time-frame. Another significant bullish indication.
- There are three distinct areas of symmetry on this chart, if correct, I see a fourth starting soon. This would be a return to the second time cycle within the symmetry of the life of this specific financial instrument. In other words, the most bullish area of the chart structure (on the weekly). This could very well repeat. This however relates back to the economic restructure that is coming and which of two scenarios I see possible playing out.
Below is the Chart for AngloGold Ashanti. The signals to plan your trading strategy are include on the chart.
The price targets and signals are much different than in Part One of this report, but that is intentional. Part one provides a simple trading strategy for hands off swing trading and / or investment and / or hedging. The trading plan included in this report is for more hands on trading and / or for more serious long term hedging or investing.
AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) swing trading weekly chart structure for trade strategies #swingtrading $AU
A Final Note:
This trade has to be considered one step at a time.
Specific to time cycles, there is no way to know what the markets will do at inflections in time cycles. In other words, we know that a large time cycle is coming due between the end of May 2019 and mid June 2019.
We also know it is large and will run for some time (see near future report for more detail). Within the time frame that the next time cycle(s) occur the markets will have waves of bullish and bearish trade trajectory.
We will be reporting in great detail about this specific time cycle, we see it lasting for up to six years (to peak) and we plan to day trade, swing trade, trend trade and invest / hedge with clear discipline through-out its peaks and valleys.
The other important final note is that we see two possible scenarios playing out in the large time cycle of the “next” (the commencement of the post carbon world economic restructure). In this, some companies (equities), some resources / commodities, currencies, sectors etc will do well and others will not do well. We see the separation (divergence) of bullish and bearish inflections to very likely be the largest in a generation, historical in fact. In one scenario companies such as AngloGold will do very well but in the other not so well.
The upcoming time cycle reporting and the upcoming reporting that will detail the “next” we see as being very plausible (an economic structural revamp) will be our focus reporting. The trade set-ups we will report on will be motivated around what we see as the next.
As I noted on my Twitter feed today, we see the next six years as a significant (historical) time in global financial markets.
Part One of the AngloGold trading strategy is available at link click here.
For More Study:
Visit our website blog link specific to swing trading and scroll down to posts that have been historically unlocked to the public. You will have to scroll down and scroll to historical pages.
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Article Topics; AngloGold Ashanti, AU, Swing Trade, Trading Strategy, Time Cycles, Price Targets, Hedge, Investment, Signals
A New Global Market Time Cycle is Upon Us, Below is Part One Of The Report: Trade Signals For My AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) Swing Trade Strategy.
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is a portfolio protection trade. Increased market volatility becomes more and more likely as we crest the June 10, 2019 global market time cycle peak and over the next six years (global time cycle report to follow).
Hedging a portfolio with low to negative beta trades is one trading strategy we will be employ in to and during this large time cycle.
First, a review of some conventional Anglo Gold charting and then in the Part 2 Premium Member Report we will look closer at algorithmic structured charting, Fibonacci levels, baseline support target price prior to entering trade and time cycles for timely entries to the long and short side of the trade strategy. In Part 2 I will also provide links to all charting.
About AngloGold Ashanti (AU).
AngloGold Ashanti is the third-largest gold mining company in the world, measured by production. Company website https://www.anglogoldashanti.com/.
AngloGold Ashanti Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AngloGold_Ashanti.
Market Watch: AngloGold Ashanti swings to profit- Published: Feb 19, 2019 1:29 a.m. ET https://www.marketwatch.com/story/anglogold-ashanti-swings-to-profit-2019-02-19.
Four Ways to Time a Swing Trade Entry in AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) $AU #swingtrading
- Stochastic RSI. The blue arrow on the chart below shows the stochastic RSI, ideally you want to long this trade when it is first curling up not near the top. However, it can ride the top for some time, so this is more difficult. We have a baseline support price (above current price) we want to see before entering the trade (see Part 2 of this report).
- MACD. The MACD on a daily or weekly time frame (depending on how active you want to be in the trade) is one of the most successful methods to time swing trades (or trend / directional trajectory trading). The MACD is currently trending up and has lots of room to run.
- The 200 MA is also a great signal for trading. Price consolidated above the 200 MA (pink arrow on chart below) on the daily and price has since started to trade higher – in gap mode with recent market uncertainty.
- Squeeze Momentum Indicator – a proprietary indicator from Trading View I personally use in most swing trades, when green I go, only when it’s green (unless some other significant signals are present).
Four ways to time your swing trade in AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) $UA #swingtrading
See this related article: Low Beta Stocks To Buy As Market Volatility Increases https://finance.yahoo.com/news/low-beta-stocks-buy-market-221910967.html?.tsrc=rss
Price Targets And Sizing for a Long Position in AngloGold Ashanti Trade
Limiting downside exposure is key in trading (risk management). Ideally you want to time your entry with an initial position and add to the position through the first third (or so) of the trade and trim your position in the last third (or so) of the trading range.
Price targets are difficult and limiting (unless you are using in depth algorithmic chart models with clear time cycles), but I will do my best below to give you some idea. But first be sure you set a minimum low side price or have an indicator as an absolute sell indication if the long trade does not work for you (for example, you could say that if the MACD on the daily turns down you will close the trade).
Keeping it simple, you could target the four areas of the chart per below (blue lines). The first fills the historical gap (the most obvious) and the three other a sequential (derived from Fibonacci and price) as key areas that are likely to find over supply in your upside trade.
The four areas (price targets) are also below the 50% range of historical pricing. This leaves you with additional opportunity for returns above the 50% range should this trade timing be spot on (or even near spot on).
The other general way to time your price targets is to trim your trade position at previous highs on the chart or ebb and flow your positioning between Fibonacci levels.
For my personal trade strategy, this is a portfolio positioning long side trade that could last well in to 2025 and beyond. Above the 50% region of historical price you could hold a small amount as a bonus.
Price targets for swing trading AngloGold Ashanti AU $UA #tradestrategy
Timing Your Trade.
AngloGold closed trade on Friday up 7.26% on the day trading 13.29. Given the rise in price late last week I would encourage you in your trading strategy to time your entry on a pull back, however, a pull back in price may not occur any time soon (considering the current market turmoil). And finally I would note that the June 10, 2019 time cycle peak could see either a run up in equity markets or down on the other side, so you may want to wait a few weeks (more on global time cycle expectations in global markets in premium reports to follow).
Part Two of the AngloGold trading strategy available click here (premium).
For More Study:
Visit our website blog link specific to swing trading and scroll down to posts that have been historically unlocked to the public. You will have to scroll down and scroll to historical pages.
Special Pricing (expires June 16, 2019):
Swing Trade Alerts Only Discount for our Followers – One Month Reg 99.00 Special 69.30 w/ 30% Off. Use Code: SWING30. Expires June 16, 2019. Discount code can be used for 3, 6, 12 mos terms also for greater savings. #swingtrading #tradealerts https://compoundtrading.com/product/swing-trading-alerts/?attribute_plan=One+Month
Swing Trading Bundle Discount (Newsletters, Trade Alerts, Chat) for our Followers – One Month Reg 149.00 Special 104.30 with 30% Off. Use Code: SWING30. Expires June 16, 2019. Discount code can be used for 3, 6, 12 mos terms also for greater savings. https://compoundtrading.com/product/swing-trading-bundle/
Subscribe to Swing Trading Service:
Swing Trading Bundle (Swing Trading Newsletter and Live Swing Trading Alerts).
Swing Trading Newsletter (Weekly Newsletter Published for Traders).
Real-Time Swing Trading Alerts (Private Member on Twitter Feed and more recently by way of Email).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or In-Person).
Free Mailing List(s):
Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.
Free Swing Trading Periodical Contact Form (Complimentary Swing Trade Set-Ups to Email)
Public Chat:
Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.
Article Topics; AngloGold, Ashanti, AU, Swing Trading, Trading Strategy, Time Cycles, Price Targets