How to Trade an Oil Price Sell-Off in to Futures Settlement at 2:30 PM EST for Reversal.

This Reversal (Snap-Back) Crude Oil Trade Provided a 190 Point Range for Our Oil Trading Room Traders.

One of the best ways to increase your oil trading profit is with reversal trading. Crude oil can be difficult to trade, so knowing where reversals in price are likely to occur (support areas of charting) greatly helps a trader with winning trade signals.

A Warning! In a reversal trade it is important to manage your stops, bias, trade size in accordance to your account size.

The example below is of a 30 contract size (possible) oil trading account used by our software EPIC V3.1.1.

I personally didn’t take the trade because I was tired and I had a few other reasons. But it cost me some excellent profit because the price of oil then reversed and rallied near 200 ticks – it would have been a great win for me.

Some of our traders in our oil trading room did get the win so that was great, so I learned a lesson for next time.

The biggest lesson being that when EPIC V3.1.1 alerts an oil trade and the signal is “in-play” it is best for me to get with it and take the trade because the software has been winning non stop since it’s “black swan” code updates.

The oil charts below are models developed by our trading team that are proprietary to our oil trade alert and trading room members, however, if you know how to properly chart conventionally you can also take advantage of this set-up.

Let’s start with the set-up for the possible reversal trade on the one hour chart model. The one hour oil chart suggests that a turn in price, or a topping, is near (refer to the curved grey arch on the chart).

More specifically to this trade set up, the yellow trend lines (algorithmic trend lines) provide for a possible area on the charting for intra-day support in a possible sell-off scenario in to futures settlement at 2:30 PM on Thursday May 7, 2020.

The alert went out to the oil trading room and trade alert feed as follows;

You can see on the oil chart below that price was crashing at 12:18:17 EST time (or 12:18 PM) so the possible set-up for a bounce after oil settled at 2:30 PM was setting up.

If you’re thinking of swinging crude oil for a bounce, we’re getting closer to support areas.

trade, price, support, oil

If you’re thinking of swinging crude oil for a bounce, we’re getting closer to support areas. #oilswingtrading

Intra-day time cycle on crude oil is 1:45 P.M. for a possible bounce (reversal), careful with expecting VWAP to hit with some funds turning short.

The chart below and guidance provided to subscribers was also that at 1:45 PM a time cycle intra-day was possibly at an inflection point (or peak / bottom) and this was reason to be on high alert.

day trade, time cycle, crude, oil

Intra-day time cycle on crude oil 145 for a possible bounce, careful with expecting VWAP to it with some funds turning short #oiltradealerts

Screen capture of oil trading alert feed telling oil trading room position started.

Then at 2:44, so 14 minutes after crude oil officially settled for the day the alert went out that we were opening our trade position long at 8/30 size at 24.67 and the screen image below shows some of the other alerts and comments as the trade was going well and in a winning position.

Long 8/30 24.67 FX USOIL WTI trade on CL — EPIC.

oil trade alert, trading room, open position

Screen capture of oil trading alert feed telling oil traders position started – Long 8-30 24.67 FX USOIL WTI trade on CL — EPIC.

Screen capture image of oil trading room when I alerted the trade position opened and discussing trading strategies.

One of the things we do in the oil trading room is provide charting and as much trade strategy guidance for our subscribers as possible.

This image below is a screen shot of the Discord room where we’ll chatter and share ideas and there is also a live mic and charting trading room where I walk our traders through the trades on voice broadcast live and share the charts we are using – both run at same time..

oil trading room, trade alert

Screen capture image of oil trading room when I alerted the trade position opened and discussing trading strategies.

If the trade works, the price target would be Friday 3:00 PM EST ish for 29.00 ish.

The guidance provided to the trading room after we entered the trade was the price targets and time of the targets possibly coming in to affect. The chart below shows an arrow that provides our traders with a trajectory of trade should the plan being working.

price targets, oil, trade

If the trade works, the price target would be Friday 300 PM EST ish for 29 ish #oiltradingstrategies #swingtrading

The crude oil one hour chart with symmetry time cycles has been an amazing model, working very well, details on video.

The image below shows the 1 hour algorithmic model and the symmetries in crude oil trade, time cycles and price targets. The reference to “the video” is that we record all trading sessions and make them available to our subscribers for $STUDY and review.

swing trading, time cycles, crude oil

The crude oil one hour chart with symmetry time cycles has been an amazing model, working very well, details on video #swingtrading #oil

The Live Oil Trading Room Raw Video Feed

At 1:12:40 on the video timer is where the oil trade starts, you can see and hear the actual trade guidance for the signals I am providing our traders as the trade sets-up.

There isn’t a lot of trade guidance on mic because much of it was provide in advance in the trading room and on alert feeds, but you can idea of how it works in the trading room on the video. There is also a time stamp at near bottom right of screen in the video on the chart itself.

The Chart Below Shows Trade Long Entries (green arrows) and Take Profit Areas Selling (red arrows).

Crude Oil Trade Alerts dot plotted on 1 minute grid chart of EPIC V3.1.1 trade from oil trading room earlier today.

oil trading room, trade, sequence

Crude Oil Trade Alerts dot plotted on 1 minute grid chart of EPIC V3.1.1 trade from oil trading room earlier today. #oiltradealerts

The trade on the 60 min symmetrical time cycle model (white arrow), long position after sell-off in to daily settlement.

1 hour, oil, chart

The trade on the 60 min symmetrical time cycle model (white arrow), long position after sell-off in to daily settlement #oiltradealerts

The reversal trade works really well for oil traders as long as you manage the trade size according to your account size and be sure to stop out if you are on the wrong side of the trade.

Oil can trend down or up for weeks so staying on the wrong side of an oil trade can cost you your whole trading account.

So if you know your areas of support on the most dominant time frames (in this instance the 1 hour charting) and you execute your long trade after it looks like the sell-off has stopped then it becomes simply managing the ebb and flow of trade according to your personal style thereafter.

BUT IF IT FAILS, my best suggestion to you is to close the trade sooner than later.

I’ve also written other articles on intra-day reversal oil trades – they are more in-depth and a tad technical, but if you want to dig deeper in to this topic here are a few recent articles:

My tweet summarizing the oil trade on my personal Twitter feed (shows alert screen shots);

When crude oil sold off in to 2:30 settlement yesterday, EPIC V3.1.1 machine protocol went in deep long for swing trade, I didn’t follow… EPIC got it Direct hitFireBow and arrow I didn’t – in hindsight, likely cause I was tired. Good lesson.

#OTTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI #OilTradeAlerts

In the tweet below, I was explaining that oil traders would want to be focusing on trades that are on the outside extreme ranges in price.

The reason for this is that oil recently rallied off lows and we have a time cycle and price targets that see oil topping near – term. When oil starts to top or bottom in a wider time-frame it is then best to trade the range of trade on lower time-frames (such as the 1 minute, 5, 15 or 30 minute charting) until the larger trend is formed.

Oil traders, they’ll want to take the trades on the extremes the next two weeks #OOTT $CL_F $USO The whippy extremes will provide the best risk reward for oil traders.

So that’s the reversal snap-back trade in crude oil futures that you can either consider as a day trade or an intra-week swing trade. There are of course many other considerations we use (our software has over 9000 rules in its instructions), but for the purposes of a human trader, the above article should help get you started.

We endeavor to develop the best winning oil trading alerts and oil trading room service for oil traders.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

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Article Topics; oil, strategies, reversal, trade, swing trading, day trading, crude oil,  oil trading room, oil trading alerts. 

 


Oil sell-off today, EPIC Oil Algorithm buy side oil trade alerts 64.50 buy side at day lows for members. #oil #trade #alerts FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OOTT #Algorithm

How did we know in a heavy intra-day sell-off where oil would bottom and turn? Learning to trade crude oil is not easy if you try and trade it with conventional trading strategy, you need to know how oil trades and why.

Below are the details to help you with your crude oil trading strategy.

Let’s look at what happened and then I will explain how I knew where the reversal intra-day in crude oil trade would be.

Below you will find the intra-day sell-off in crude oil, the member trade alerts, member chat room guidance and charts – and then I’ll explain how we knew in advance with high probability where the bottom would be.

Crude oil chart (FX USOIL WTI). The sell off in crude oil trade today was extreme.

Crude Oil Chart – Crude oil sell-off today, EPIC Oil Algorithm called buy side for 64.50 at day lows (on way down). 

On the way down we alerted our members on the EPIC Twitter crude oil trade alerts member service of where the possible bottoms were. There was an initial possible area and then the buy side area a touch down. The chart below shows the sell-off (with red arrow) and the buy side long entries alerted to members (green arrow).

Crude, oil, selloff, chart, buy side, alert

Oil sell-off today, EPIC Oil Algorithm called buy side for 64.50 at day lows (on way down). #oil #trade #alerts FX $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OOTT #Algorithm

Alert – Oil trade alerts on the EPIC Oil Trading Alerts Feed – Starting buys in here careful will cut fast 64.50 – 58, hit low in sell off perfect. 

Below is a screen shot of the private member trade alert feed on Twitter showing the member alert that our buys were starting in the 64.50 – .58 area (after we had provided the oil trade strategy in the private discord oil chat room server). Buy side alerts started at 64.50 and the low of day in crude oil was 64.44 (FX USOIL WTI).

oil, trade, alerts, long buys

Oil trade alerts – Starting buys in here careful will cut fast 64.50 – 58, hit low in sell off perfect. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #Oil #trading #alerts

Chat Room Strategy – Oil chat room member guidance for buy side at bottom of sell-off today.

Below is a screen shot of the private member oil trading chat room.

“if it dumps i’ll look for 64.52 area ish”

This comment was after significant guidance by myself (lead trader at Compound Trading Group). I was looking for confirmation of a bottom trade strategy for a reversal in oil trade intra-day.

“hoping in to 1130 candle expiry i get entry”

Trade had been in sell-of prior to the Wednesday 10:30 AM EST EIA Petroleum Status Report and after the report was released trade in crude oil continued. Prior to this alert to watch the start of the 11:30 AM EST candle on the oil chart I had given significant member guidance in the chat room. If you look at the chart posted above you will see that the reversal turn in oil was in fact at the 11:30 candle on the chart.

“looking for volatility in to 64.52 and turn of 30 and long tail and volume buys”

As with the prior comment above, I’m explaining in the quote specifically what I am looking for to confirm my trade execution long for the reversal. By the way, we use a 30 minute chart for EPIC Oil algorithmic charting purposes.

“starting buys in here careful will cut fast 64.58 area”

This is the alert in the chat room that my buys started at 64.58 (this was the first alert) then on Twitter I had alerted buys 64.50 – 64.58 because price came off a bit and I was buying in to 64.50 so the Twitter alert reflected that also.

“trimmed 64.72 looking for another entry”

Then as I was trimming longs I had alerted the chat room. At this time I was also in the main trading room on voice broadcast alerting my trades to the chat room (we have the member discord chat room and a main chat room that has live oil charting for the algorithm and also voice broadcast – members can choose to be in either / or as they need).

So in a nutshell I called the bottom for members in an aggressive intra-day sell-off and provided strategy for the trade on its way down. There is many more comments prior to these from the chat room.

oil, trade, chat, room, strategy, crude

Oil chat room member guidance for buy side at bottom of sell-off today. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #chat #room #alerts

So the questions is, how did I know where to execute the long side trade in crude oil? How was the reversal confirmed? How can you learn to trade oil with the correct market and charting signals?

Reason Number 1 –  The US Dollar.

“resistance on USD should provide moderate support for oil prices
but thats a moderate consideration”

“you could consider this area divergent right now for USD – there’s a special report out tonight, but this is resistance on DXY now on main wide structure it should calm down very soon
on intra day short time frame who knows
intra day resistance white arrow on DXY”

The correlation between the US Dollar and the trade of commodities is not always correlated. I tend to check in on our US Dollar Algorithm whenever executing oil trades. Today the dollar was trading near a critical resistance area, so I took that information in to consideration.

Oil trading strategy in chat room started with resistance approaching on US Dollar trade intra-day explained to members with charts.

oil, trading, strategy, chat, room, USD

Oil trading strategy in chat room started with resistance approaching on US Dollar trade intra-day explained to members with charts.

“wider structured resistance on DXY at orange line”

Screen shot of US Dollar Algorithm charting showing members in chat room where main resistance in DXY is.

US Dollar, resistance, oil, prices

Screen shot of US Dollar Algorithm charting showing members in chat room where main resistance in DXY is.

How the Dollar Impacts Commodity Prices

“The vast majority of these materials use the dollar as a pricing mechanism for global trade because the U.S. is the strongest and most stable economy in the world. When the dollar strengthens, it means that commodities become more expensive in other, nondollar currencies. This tends to have a negative influence on demand. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, commodity prices in other currencies move lower, which increases demand.”

https://www.thebalance.com/how-the-dollar-impacts-commodity-prices-809294

Reason Number 2 – Support for Oil Trade on the Weekly Chart (moving averages).

“62.30 50 MA on weekly”

The second reason is more a consideration for downside risk than it was a reason for trade.

I was reviewing the weekly chart our algorithm reporting service provides members – taking a mental note of my downside risk. I was also weighing the upside resistance on the weekly chart. Because of the weekly downside risk being considerably lower than the price of intra-day trade my risk tolerance to more sell-off was very low. I alerted that to members and would have closed a losing trade very quickly had that happened.

The 50 day moving average in this chart example shows a considerable down-side risk to a long trade. The 50 MA is the purple line on the chart in the screen shot below. More about moving averages here.

Screen shot of weekly oil chart support for trading strategy consideration – 62.30 50 MA on weekly chart.

chart, moving, averages, crude, oil

Screen shot of weekly oil chart support for trading strategy consideration – 62.30 50 MA on weekly

Reason Number 3 – EIA confirmed the build in crude oil inventory.

#EIA
Crude: 6.805M
Cushing: 1.643M
Gasoline: -0.740M
Distillates: 3.566M
#oott

And then the EIA Petroleum figures were available online at 10:30 AM and this confirmed a large build in crude oil inventories. This is bearish but at 4:30 the day before the initial forecast provided a surprise build (hence the sell-off that started in trade prior). This isn’t a reason for a long side trade at first glance until you consider the trader’s mentality.

The sell-off that continued after EIA was announced was obviously an over committed intra-day scenario because everyone already knew that a large build was expected, so I didn’t expect it to sell off much more intra-day. My longer term bias is considerably different, but specifically intra-day in the trade of crude I didn’t expect much more sell-off.

Then the EIA Petroleum Report figures were available and the build in crude was higher than expected (screen shot of chat room).

Also note in the screen shot below of the chat room the coding tech updating the algorithm charting for members on the intra-day time frame and posting it to the room. He did this because he knew a trade was setting up so he provided the most recent machine trading data for myself and our trading community members to use when executing the trades.

EIA, crude, oil, inventory, build

Then the EIA Petroleum Report figures were available and the build in crude was higher than expected.

Reason Number 4 – Crude Oil Algorithmic Charting Support Areas to Watch.

64.60 FX USOIL buy target intra day – we’ll see how it looks trading 64.88 intra

Then I provided the members the first area of trade to watch (at 64.60) for on the charting that could have been the support area intra-day for the reversal long trade (see the member chat room screen shot above).

And sure enough, intra-day trade stalled at the 64.60 market and below is the charting we were watching. The green arrow on the charting below shows the area of trade.

Chat room screen shot – shows two EPIC Oil Algorithm charts and price target area where trade stalled for a test.

crude, oil, algorithm, trading

Chat room screen shot – shows two EPIC Oil Algorithm charts and price target area where trade stalled for a test.

Gray arrow shows diagonal trendline support area that has acted as support historically many times. EPIC Oil Trading Algorithm.

The gray arrow shows an area on the oil algorithm that has been used by the machines to buy intra-day sell-offs over and over again.

One of the benefits of our work is that we look at historical charts and process that big data for our clients. This work provides insight to what specific signals to use at various intervals of trade intra-day and for swing trading that the human trader simply can’t discern because the data involved is too much for the brain to process. This would take a book of 500 pages to explain. In short, this specific area in the algorithmic oil charting model has been used consistently by the machines. I include some recent examples below for demonstration purposes.

Also note the green arrows on the chart. The first being the first area of support I was watching and the second being the second area. The first area of support did see a bounce in trade intra-day but failed the pull-back back test so we didn’t execute. The second area we did execute trades on and did alert to our members. This was so close to the ideal buy trigger that we nailed it. Our members will tell you that we alert the buy zones in sell-offs near perfect nearly 100% of the time. Our feed tells the story for us – it is time stamped and transparent so there is no way to trick anyone with false signals of record.

support, algorithm, oil, trading, historical

Gray arrow show diagonal trendline support area that has acted as support historically many times. EPIC Oil Trading Algorithm.

The chart below has recent examples of trade where the machines have bought the sell-off in crude oil with significant liquidity. The sell-off and subsequent area of reversal today was exactly the same area of the algorithm model.

Oil trade algorithm and the recent areas of trade machines have taken long positions in oil during sell-offs.

Oil, trading, algorithm, historical, examples

Oil trade algorithm and the recent areas of trade machines have taken long positions in oil during sell-offs.

Reason Number 5 – Confirmation in Intra-Day Trade of Oil to Confirm Signal to Enter Long Side Trade.

Chat room screen shot – explaining to members indicators I was watching on charting for back-test confirmation in oil trade.

Crude oil trade hit 64.74 within 14 cents of the price target I was wanting to see to possibly confirm the trade (see above the 64.60 area I was watching for).

Then the price target of 64.60 was hit and I explained to chat room members to wait and see how the bounce in trade handled the upside 20 MA resistance area and to watch the expected back test (pull back in trade) to previous support before executing a trade. This is a process of watching intra-day trade for various confirmations in trade to be sure as you can be that your entry execution is not too early (or late for that matter).

Chart, indicators, trade, oil

Chat room screen shot – explaining to members indicators I was watching on chartng for back-test confirmation in oil trade

Conclusion:

We knew well in advance of the oil sell-off today the area of trade that was most probable to be the right buy signal.

We alerted the buy side trade for our members on the private member oil trading alerts feed.

We provided trading strategy in the oil chat room well in advance of trade achieving the price target for the long side trade alert.

I provided live charting and voice broadcast to members in our main trading room as I executed trades.

Our algorithm charting provided us the buy area well in advance as part of a rules based trading process as a result of big data processing by our team of experts in this field.

In large part, this is why I haven’t been on the losing side of an oil trade alert in many months. Every trade alert is documented in real time, recorded, live alerted and time stamped for evidence of our claims.

Are You Learning to Trade Oil?

My best advice is to join our service on a trial and view real-time how we analyse our trades.

We have a clear trading process that is rules based and has proven to win.

I am far from the best trader I know, in fact I would rate myself about a 5 or 6 out of 10 – I am an expert technician but not top shelf trader. But I am one of the highest winning percentage oil trade alerting services available simply because our algorithm models are that good – and it takes more than that, it takes a team of committed individuals to provide clear winning trading signals to the members.

Interpretation of the algorithm models as a result of experience and historical big data processing is why we win and win often. And when we loose, it is small because we know when a trade has failed. In our work we know before the crowd where to buy and why and where to close and why. We know where to add to your trades and where to trim you trades.

And finally, if you need more help getting on the winning side of your trades then I would seriously consider 3 hours of private coaching. Even the best traders in the world have a coach because a trading coach will keep your psychological game in check as it relates to following the trading of a rules based process. A trading coach is critical to success as a winning trader.

Best with it and let me know if you need anything.

Curtis

To Learn More About Trading Oil:

Learning to Trade Links on our Site and/or YouTube.

Crude Oil Trading Face-Off Results “Pro Trader” (Man) vs. EPIC Oil Algorithm (Machine Trading Tech)

Oil Trading Alerts Live Video w EPIC Oil Algorithm #EIA Report #Oil #Trading #Algorithm #Alerts $USOIL $WTI $CL_F

“The Nut Hand” Today’s Huge Oil Trade Win. Exactly How It Was Done. How I Knew & How You Can Too.

CRITICAL Oil Trade. Weekly Timing. EPIC Oil Algorithm Channel $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO #OilTrading #EIA

Overnight Oil Trade | Trading Plan in Detail | EPIC Oil Algorithm $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL $USO #Alerts

No Crystal Ball? Watch this… EPIC Oil Algorithm #EIA $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $CL_F #OOTT #Algo

Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm June 21, 2017 (video).

Oil Trading Room – How to Use Oil Algorithm Chart & Recent Trades June 29, 2017 (video).

Here we unlock historical member reports at intervals after time cycles have expired for traders that are learning to trade oil. When you clock on link scroll down at landing page on blog section you will be transferred to so that you can get to reports that are unlocked over time: https://compoundtrading.com/category/epic-the-oil-algo-chart-report/

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Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

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Article Topics: Crude, Oil, Trade, Alerts, Chat Room, Reversal, Strategy, Algorithm, Learn to Trade