Late Monday We Started A Crude Oil Short Sell Trade Sequence In To Technical Resistance in Advance of API Report Release Tuesday at 4:30.

Below are the trade positions we executed in this trade sequence (API report / resistance strategy) short and long, the charts, technical reasons and live oil trading room raw video.

As of the time of writing the strategy / sequence of trade is still in play.

Before reading this article, please read the introductory article to this series here: How Oil Day Traders Can Learn to Trade Better Using Success & Failure of Our Trading Development Team – Part 1.

The articles in this series are emailed direct to our mailing list – click to register.

Recent Trading Profit/Loss Results v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software Sample 100K Account:

For Aug 15, 2019 Profit & Loss: Daily +$355 YTD+$9,185 Projected $85,958 or 86% Per Annum. v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Test Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #machinetrading #oiltradealerts

Monday Oil Trading Room Session.

Please note:

  • When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
  • Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trade broadcast room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in a Discord private member server.

The Trade Strategy Set-Up – Selling Crude Oil Futures in To A Rally

Oil trade to start the week was/is bullish in some respects, the MACD on the daily is turned up and Trump seems to be softening a bit on the China trade war, and there was some news about a drone attack on Saudi Production Field also – so shorting in to a rally isn’t exactly going with the momentum. So this trade strategy does not have the momentum factor on our side.

Whenever possible trade with (in the direction of) momentum.

Oil ends higher after drone attack on Saudi production field
Published: Aug 19, 2019 4:09 p.m. ET

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-climbs-after-drone-attack-on-saudi-production-field-2019-08-19

Nevertheless, technically oil trade intra-day was starting to get near resistance areas on various charting time frames, nearing resistance on important trend-lines on various time frame charts and was already up significantly on the day. At the time we started shorting oil intra-day our IDENT machine trade software was beginning to identify order flow selling pressure from other machine liquidity entities in intra-day markets.

Also, it was Monday trade -getting later in the day and Tuesday at 4:30 is the API report so any rally in price is likely to sell down somewhat (a retrace at minimum).

And finally, on days where crude oil has rallied it is often sold off in overnight futures trade session or in the following regular US regular session.

The price target on this short bias strategy is 55.22 (derived from the most probable price of oil per the EPIC Algorithm model) in to 4:30 Tuesday API report. We started shorting oil at 55.98 intra-day.

A crude oil day trade strategy such as this requires knowing where the technical resistance and support is on various time frame charting and the trader being able to size short trades in to resistance and cover various contract size at various supports. It requires technical know-how and strong risk management (trade size management, understanding technical range and emotional intelligence).

It isn’t an easy trade but comes with significant risk-reward if executed with proper discipline.

As mentioned above, at time of writing this trade sequence is still in play so I will update this article tomorrow with the conclusion of the trade results profit / loss etc. In the meantime I will share some charting, alerts, trading room video etc below so you can get a feel for how we are managing our execution of this particular strategy.

The oil chart below is a summary of all trades so far in the strategy.

Current sequence of all trades are mapped on the oil chart showing short trades (red) and buys to cover short positions (green). At this point we are 1/10 size short (at time of writing).

crude oil, trading, strategy, trades

Current sequence of trades mapped on an oil chart showing short trades (red) and buys to cover short.

The first four positions in red at left of chart image is a 4/10 size short when order flow was showing significant selling pressure was starting. This was the battle ground for continued rally in price of oil intra-day or a retrace in price of some sort.

The bulls won the intra-day range battle so we covered 2/10 size for small scalps and held 2/10 size as price continued to rally in to resistance.

We added 2 more positions of size in to the next resistance area of the charting and the progression goes from there, covering wins when possible at support areas and re-shorting at resistance areas.

If price alternately continued bullish we would have covered at least one if not the two add size positions of the short. However, price did not continue to rally and this area of trade was the high of day for oil nearing the end of regular US market session.

This process (of shorting chart resistance areas and covering short positions at support areas) will continue in the strategy (trade sequence) until a strong intra-day sell-off occurs, at which time we will cover the remaining short positions for a win.

The Oil Trading Alerts (screen capture images and comments).

Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:00 PM
55.98 sold 4
bot 1 55.93 holds 3

Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:17 PM
boy .94 holds 2

Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:39 PM
Sell 1 56.18 holds 3, this sequence could run until 4:30 Tues API for a PT of 55.22

Curt MelonopolyToday at 3:47 PM
Sold 2 56.30 bot 1 56.23 holds 4 trading 56.22

oil trading alerts, trading room

Screen capture of oil trading alerts in oil chat room – the start of the sequence of short selling oil intraday.

Day trade alerts for oil trade strategy in chat room continue in to close of regular market session.

Curt MelonopolyToday at 4:10 PM
Cover 1 56.21 hold 3 short

Curt MelonopolyToday at 4:59 PM
See ya at 6 pm

oil trade alerts

Day trade alerts for oil trade strategy in chat room continue in to close of regular market session.

Alerts continue in to the futures trading session and the trade sequence continues.

Curt MelonopolyToday at 6:02 PM
Buy 1 56.03 hold 2 short

Curt MelonopolyToday at 8:04 PM
Buy 1 55.89 hold 1 short

oil trade alerts, futures

Alerts continue in to the futures trading session and the trade sequence continues.

Trade strategy guidance posted to oil chat room about 15 minute chart model symmetry and sell off area intraday.

Its selling in to mid quad on 15 min model as we thought (trading plan from trading room earlier) Buy the day, sell over night

To clarify : Selling in to lower part of the 15 min quad at mid duration through the quad
Symmetry from 1 week earlier almost identical also

oil trade, guidance, strategy

Trade strategy guidance posted to oil chat room about 15 minute chart model symmetry and sell off area intraday.

One of many examples of near resistance on oil chart models is the 30 min in picture (dark black trend line above price).

oil, chart, resistance

One of many examples of near resistance on oil chart models is the 30 min in picture (dark black trend line above price)

Live Oil Trading Room Video.

Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her oil trade strategy / thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.

I did voice alert the trade executions in the live trading room on Monday (in video), however, there was not great detail as to the trade set-up / strategy, there is some guidance but not lengthy.

If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Remember also that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Further Learning:

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Company News:

Important Market and Service Updates: Webinars, Reporting, Time Cycles, Live Room, P&L’s, Promos Etc…

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

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Article Topics; crude oil, trading, strategies, API Report, Short Selling, Resistance, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, alerts, trading room


Selling Against An Intra-Day Bullish Break-out In Crude Oil Is Difficult. Here’s How We Day Short-Sold The Trump – China Break-Out News Yesterday.

The trade sequence in this report is a real-world example from our oil trading room. The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence as of the time of writing this report is not complete so there will be a Part 2 to this post.

Tuesday was a bullish break-out day for crude oil markets. Trump messaged to the world that some tariffs would be delayed and this sent oil soaring in price intra-day.

Oil prices continued to rally on Tuesday, this time on reports that the United States has decided to delay the next round of tariffs that were to be imposed on Chinese goods.

The delay gives hope to a skittish market that the trade war really won’t go on forever.

For WTI, oil prices had climbed 4.30% by 12:36pm EDT to trade at $57.29. Brent Crude was trading up even more at 4.70%, at $61.32—resuming its over $60 per barrel that it had fallen under during the first week of August as the trade war stoked fears of souring oil demand growth.

In addition to the tariff delay, which will now go into force on December 15, the United States will also be taking some of the items on that tariff list off completely, according to its newest policy document published on the Office of the United States Trade Representative website. While the list hasn’t been made public, it will include items that will be removed “based on health, safety, national security, and other factors”.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Spikes-As-US-Delays-Tariffs-On-Chinese-Goods.html

When the intra-day price in the bullish break-out (on Trump news) was over-extended technically on charts and trade was starting to get in to overhead supply (order-flow), we began a short selling sequence.

Below is the first part of this article because (as I mentioned above) the short selling sequence is still in play and includes a significant number of trade executions.

So for today’s article I will include a chart that shows / maps out each trade execution as I and the v3 EPIC machine trading software executed the trades, the raw footage from the oil trading room and some miscellaneous charting. Then in Part 2 of this article (when the trade sequence is complete) I will explain each trade execution in detail so that it may help you with your crude oil day trading strategies.

Before digging in to this article, please read the introductory article for this series here: How Oil Day Traders Can Learn to Trade Better Using Success & Failure of Our Trading Development Team – Part 1.

The articles in this series are sent direct to the mailing list – so be sure to register now,  click here.

Also, The Most Recent Oil Trade Profit Loss Results For v3 Machine Trading (trade alerts) Sample Set;

For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts

Tuesday’s Live Oil Trading Room Session.

Please note:

  • When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
  • Trades are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.

As mentioned above, Tuesday’s daytrading session in crude oil futures was a short selling strategy in to a spike in price that was over extended technically.

Below is a chart that shows / maps each location of trade (red are the short selling trades and green are the buy or cover trades, each arrow is 1/10 size). Part 2 of this article will be published tomorrow when this sequence is complete.

At time of writing we are green (positive, profitable) in the trade sequence and it will be interesting to see how it completes.

The short selling sequence below is a protocol within the v3 EPIC Crude Oil Machine Trading Software code.

First a few screen capture images from the private oil chat server and associated alerts and charts and then the main chart showing location of each trade is below that.

Below is an image screen shot from the private member oil trading server of the first trade alerts on the day.

Oil trading room, alerts, daytrades

Oil day trades started here for the day – screen capture from the oil trading room chat server. First oil trade alerts on day.

And an image of the chat oil room server showing charts of alerted trades etc.

oil trading room, alerts, charts

Oil trading room chat server showing charting guidance and alerting where each trade execution is located on chart.

short selling, crude oil, alerts, trading room

The next set of oil trade alerts and charting to show where each short sell trade is and covering of trades as sequence progresses.

oil trading room, alerts, guidance

More guidance and charting showing oil trade alert locations on charting and the daytrade session is completing.

oil, trading, futures, trade room, alerts

As the evening futures session starts more short selling of oil in this time frame starts, alerts on screen.

Below is a one minute chart from oil trading room that shows all the crude oil futures buy and selling of contracts in the short bias sequence.

Red arrows are short selling and green arrows are buys / cover trades. My apologies for the noisy chart but this is my personal work chart I use for working with the developers for the machine trade side of our work.

The bottom right arrow (green) is the most recent cover buy from the oil trade alerts while I write this article in premarket.

cude, oil, trade, alerts, chart, trading room

Chart from oil trading room trade alerts that shows each buy and sell alert in crude oil in short selling sequence.

And below is a screen shot of most recent oil trade alert from Jeremy stating that the software covered the last of the short selling contracts but is still in a short bias sequence.

Also Jeremy notes that the machine trade software (and myself with manual trade execution) are now on profitable side of the trade sequence, which isn’t bad performance for the v3 software that is less than 6 weeks old and just ran its first larger short selling sequence in to over extended intra-day trading range on the Trump news. So I’m very satisfied because I would have assumed this would be a red or loss day on first go round in this specific new sequence.

Each time the software encounters a similar set-up it will execute for a better ROI, this is the power of machine trading.

The software (v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trade Software) has had 1 red day for 0.2% draw down since it was launched – it has been running for about 5 weeks. It has had a few trade sequences that it was in the red during the sequence (such as this) but has always come up profitable on the day it completes a sequence (with the one exception).

The key with the v3 vs v4 is that the v3 software only holds at most 1/10 size in to an intra-day range (it will hold more on a high frequency very short term basis) and v4 would hold easily 3/10 or more on a much wider range of trade – this allowed for significant volatility in profit and loss.

The smaller holds in to pressure with v3 allows for a projected loss day of 1 in 10 estimated to be equal to the average win day – excellent, balance risk-reward threshold, especially if it can do 80% or more annual returns (which appears to be the case). The smaller holds also allows for v3 to maneuver easier when off-side intra-day because it always has ample “dry powder” to work with.

JeremyToday at 6:11 AM
Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell
Software well green.
If the software ends the sequence and/or flips to a buy sequence will advise, but at this point it is still short sequence.

oil trade alert, daytrading

Oil trade alert to cover short while I am writing this article about the day trade sequence.

I will explain each trade execution you see in the chart above in a future post when this trade sequence is complete, which I expect will occur today prior to the EIA report at 10:30.

Live Oil Trading Room Video.

Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole daytrading session. To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his thinking as he and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time of the oil trade alert and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.

On Tuesday, in the video below, I wasn’t providing real in depth trade guidance verbally to the room like I normally attempt to do, I was alerting the trades however. I was busy with our developers because this set-up was new to the v3 machine trade code (each new set-up in oil trade requires “teaching” of the software).

 

If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.

Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.

Thanks,

Curt

Other Reading:

NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (ticker symbol CL), the world’s most liquid and actively traded crude oil contract, is the most efficient way to trade today’s global oil markets. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/why-futures/welcome-to-nymex-wti-light-sweet-crude-oil-futures.html

Further Learning:

Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Company News:

Oil Machine Trade Software Development Update – v4 vs v3.

SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

Free Mailing List(s):

Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.

Public Chat:

Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.

Follow:

Article Topics; crude oil, short selling, trading, strategies, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL, how to trade, alerts, trading room