Part Two: Deep Dive in to Day-Trading The One Minute Crude Oil Time-Frame. Short Selling Chart Structure, Price Reversal Intra-Day for Up Trend.

Part One of this Article is here Day Trading Signals for Crude Oil Sell-Off Shorting & Bullish Reversal | 1 Minute Chart | Oil Trading Strategies.

For this premium member post we will use this video (from part one) as a guide:

A Quick Explanation of Our Discipline.

We chart financial instruments using both conventional and algorithmic charting methods. Charted on all time-frames, we use up to fifty conventional indicators and back test charting up to sixty months. When complete, the algorithmic models then provide a structure of trade representing primary support and resistance areas, time cycle considerations and more. The process is ongoing with real-world testing and models are updated regularly.

Specific to crude oil, we now utilize eighteen proprietary algorithmic models (representing various time-frames). The models / data are used in our personal trading, distributed to internal members and commercial enterprise clients on regular rotation, broadcast live to our oil trading room, timely set-ups are shared to the private member Discord oil chat room and coded to our machine trading software.

This post deals specifically with one of eighteen models – the one minute time frame. And more specifically the sell off structure and reversal points that signal a trend change intra-day with crude oil trade.

The Structure of a Crude Oil Intra-Day Sell Off.

As explained in Part 1 of this post, crude oil sells off within a structure that is often very precise. Understanding the structure of trade can assist a daytrader in many areas of his/her trade management. This can include trade sizing, working the ebb and flow of trade up and down in price, setting stop orders, determining where, when and why to size in and hold and where to be cautious or not trade at all.

Learn From Our Machine Trade Development Process and Prior Trade Experience.

We, in our own development are dealing with these trade management considerations within intra-day trade. I myself as a day-trader can assess these indications or signals drawing on decades of prior experience, but this process becomes much different when you start coding software to trade crude oil.

When I am trading (as a person mechanically executing trades) I am using what I think is instinct and experience. But what exactly is that process? This is complicated to assess but is required when coding software to trade for you and is also important for any human trader to consider.

What I have learned is that I didn’t know anything about how crude oil really trades. I thought I knew, but I didn’t. And as we continue to develop software we continue to discover areas within trade on various time frames where machine liquidity has or is creating other points of structured trade that can be modeled. It is a very manually intensive process.

When you code software to trade a financial instrument such as crude oil futures it becomes an absolute discipline. It has to have an absolute rules-based system to execute trades (in our case our oil software now has near 4000 rules or instructions that it weighs against to make trade decisions). It is ones and zeros. There is no room for cognitive dissonance – no room for fooling oneself (more on this in a future post).

The main point is this, oil trade is very structured (there are times of day or week when it is loose but for the most part it is structured). It is structured because it is (in large part) machine liquidity that is trading crude oil intra-day – estimated to be well over 80%.

Commodity trading enters the age of digitisation.

Commodities Traders Increasingly Adopt Algorithms.

We are sharing our experience in the development of such software to assist human traders to be able to compete with that machine driven trade in oil (and we are providing data to other enterprise groups).

You will find that crude oil trades like no other and it does not trade the way conventional traders think it trades. The rules are in large part very different than what the average retail trader thinks. 

We have recently completed coding software of the eighteen oil trade algorithm models (and our proprietary IDENT order flow software is fully in the code also). Last week we ran the software in real-world trade and finished cleaning the bugs from the code (we encountered ten and they weren’t nice to deal with – we had some intra-day draw-downs). We are now simply adding set-ups to the software (which equates to small updates vs large model code development) and we are also tweaking the software as we observe it trading real-time.

In other words, our development is largely done because all the models are in the software now and the trading sequences have all run which has allowed us to de-bug the software. Here forward we expect a much smoother ride with the software and I suspect that I as a human trader in crude oil will have a hard time competing with the software’s performance. In fact I would bet my life on it.

Why do I ramble on about this? Because a human trader has no other choice but to accept this reality if they are wanting to compete with the machines. Accepting this reality is step one. Step two is then developing a trading strategy based on what the machines are doing (the structure of the software) to compete and profit off the trade of crude oil.

I suspect that I as a human trader in crude oil that I will have a hard time competing with the software’s performance. In fact I would bet my life on it.

Back to Your Strategy. Lets Look at the Crude Oil Sell-Off Structure, Intra-Day Price Action and How to Trade the Signals Within the One Minute Chart Model.

Be sure you have read part one of this article, many of the intra-day oil trading strategy points of reference are explained in more detail at that post also.

Structure of the Financial Instrument is Key. Knowing the algorithmic structure (and conventional charting) for the time-frame you are trading (and preferably for all time-frames) is key to your success. This structure then becomes your point of reference (map / GPS / playing field) for developing your strategy (it is the structure that the machines are trading within).

The one minute model structure – the support and resistance lines and indicators include;

  • The trading range is shown on the chart as a thick horizontal dotted line with a red dotted line and a blue dotted line on either side of the white. When trade is very predictable this becomes important for support and resistance, especially in a squeeze set-up.
  • The other horizontal white lines are support and resistance points to consider – the thicker the line the more important they are in trade strategy consideration.
  • The down-sloping (down-trending) yellow dotted lines (thin) are the least in consideration, but are often included on the chart for our reference.
  • The up-sloping (up-trending) yellow lines are to be considered as support and resistance during predictable (high volume) trading periods as support and resistance in sell-offs.
  • The up-sloping (up-trending) white lines are decision lines, or you could look at it as indecision areas of trade. When trade is deciding to continue down (the yellow lines) or continue or reverse up (the blue down-trending) lines (see next point below).
  • The down-sloping (down-trending) blue lines are to be used as support and resistance when trade is bullish (again, as with all, these are more predictable in high volume periods of trade).
  • It is important to note that the lines are proprietary algorithmic calculated trend-lines (calculated based on historical trade).
  • And also of note, the lines are hand drawn “on-the-fly” by our lead trader or a staff member as time allows and sent out to clients, be aware that errors are common. We expect to have proprietary software in future for our clients that will minimize these issues.
  • Indicators include the 20 MA, 50 MA, 100 MA, 200 MA, VWAP, price and volume. You can double tap the field area of the chart to access Stochastic RSI, MACD and Squeeze Momentum Indicator.

Below is a screen shot of the one minute crude oil day-trading algorithmic model.

Direct links to the chart models are emailed to members in small group batches or for individual or commercial use. Please let us know if you are using more than one device to access the charting to assist us in dissemination of the model links.

daytrading, chart, crude, oil

One Minute Crude Oil Trading Chart Model for Day-Trader Signals in Developing Intra-Day Trade Strategy.

Other Chart Time-Frame Support and Resistance Matter. You need to be aware of all primary time-frames. You need the conventional charting trade set-ups that are in play at your disposal and the algorithmic structured models. The primary time frames we use are the one minute, 5 minute and 30 minute charting. We also use 15 minute, 60, 240, daily, weekly and monthly – often.

Knowing where the primary support and resistance are on the other time frames will provide clues to possible points of intra-day price reversal and / or points to trim your short or long positions.

Below is a recent example showing a close up of the one month oil model. Trade was recently near an important area of resistance on the one month model. The trader should then to develop a sound strategy look to the weekly, daily, 240 minute, one hour, 30 minute, 15 minute and 5 minute models to confirm price is breaking down at that resistance level and trade it on the one minute time-frame intra-day.

one month, crude, oil, trading, model

Recent example of oil sell off at key point of resistance on one month model, important for trade strategy to know.

And below on the thirty minute chart (as another example) trade was testing key resistance and then systematically sold off through the model. It continued below and a deep sell off ensued.

This resistance area (as shown) as being key could be confirmed as such on all the models.

For us in the back-office this was very frustrating because we had just finished coding the eighteen models to the new version of software and the old version was 20% short crude oil and when we loaded the new software the old was shut down and the positions were closed.

The old software (had we left it to trade the sequence) would have had a considerable gain trading the full range of the sell-off because the full range of the sell off was coded to the prior software. But unfortunately that is how it goes when you are developing. Thankfully the eighteen model version is our last for crude oil and only small tweaks and set-up updates will occur.

30 min, oil, trading, model

Prior to sell off resistance on 30 minute oil trading model had been tested and price systematically sold off.

One other example, and there are many (a simple screen shot from my Trading View account), is a 15 model chart provided to members on May 19 before the massive sell-off started showing the key resistance and the full trading range for their trading strategy – this was a premium set-up.

It wasn’t long after this the sell off took the oil price even lower than key support.

This was also when we loaded the new software (prior to the sell off), frustrating to say the least because we were de-bugging very large new version software instead of enjoying the harvest of the set-up (never again).

crude oil, strategy, chart, trade, 15 min

Screen shot of 15 min oil trading model that shows May 19 members had range of trade ready for sell-off for strategy

Increased Volatility Within Intra-Day Trade Structure. The price action of an intra-day crude oil sell-off is volatile (actually, the price action at certain points within the model has more velocity) and yet price is more precisely structured than at most other areas of trade.

When price falls out of the yellow line support you can short to the next yellow line support. However, the better or preferred method is to short in the sequence of trade as price bounces in to resistance.

Either method is okay (the shorting in to resistance is better) and both need to be harnessed in discipline. Discipline to cut your position when you are wrong.

Knowing where / when you are wrong is key – close your position fast and take a small loss.

In the image below of the one minute model during recent sell off trade action you see the following;

  • First trade fell through the blue bullish buy trade signal (top left of screen burgundy arrow) signalling no intra-day reversal in play yet and you can continue in a short selling position.
  • Price of oil then fell through the yellow line support (pink arrow) which is used as support in a sell-off for your trade strategy. So if you did trim your short in to that yellow line support from your previous short you could now add some again (below the yellow line) and look toward the next yellow line as a possible support in the sequence.
  • Price then continued in the trade sequence right through the next blue line (bull buy line signal) and in to the next sell-off sequence support area (signalling time to trim and cover or close), shown with the down trending green arrow on chart.
  • Price then bounced at the yellow line (white arrow) and went straight to the resistance line (just under the previous short confirmation line) and was also a resistance test of the 20 MA (blue arrow) – this was an ideal area to short again. Knowing that you are wrong is if price did not stop there and continued up to breach the previous yellow support / resistance line (pink arrow).
  • Price then sold off again dropping two floors to the 57.30 s – it then over shot the support of the yellow line (which often signals a near term trend reversal). Whenever price over shoots a key resistance or support line during active trade be sure to use caution because this is often a near term reversal point.
  • The area circled in white is the consolidation area of trade (hitting all kind of trend lines) before confirming the reversal in trade intra-day in crude oil.
  • The red arrow shows a clear confirmation bull buy bounce at a buy trigger for uptrend and the yellow arrow shows price breach a bullish part of the sequence for further confirmation that an intra day reversal in price is now in play. Additionally all the moving averages have now been breached by price action.
daytraders, one min, oil, chart

One minute crude oil daytrading model for our traders to assess short and long positions and determine reversal areas.

Precise Support, Resistance and Decision Areas. When the price of oil sells off it drops violently but stops at the next algorithmic support (yellow lines) with near precision almost every time. The opposite is true when it is trading in an intra-day uptrend (the blue lines). When price is indecisive it will use the white trend lines more and also perhaps the other support and resistance lines on the chart model. You can see example of this in the chart above.

Various Decisions at Support in Trade. When the sell-off stops at support it then will possibly bounce testing a variety of resistance points, stall and trade near support or violently drop to the next support in the sell-off sequence.

Determining Trend-Reversal and/or Low of Day Price. At points in the sell-off there are then indications of a near term bottom or trend reversal that may develop.

Some clues for a near term bottom and possible intra-day price reversal include (as noted above) overshooting support with immediate buy programs kicking in sending price higher, inter trend bounces in price that may become higher and higher or price may predictably start firing off (or respecting) decision areas of the model or bullish support and resistance decisions within the model (this is also shown in the oil chart above).

Time of day and time cycle decisions become important (see below) as does order flow volume (and more specifically who is in the trade, the velocity of the volume, when the volume is coming in and where on the model the volume is).

There are other signals to watch for also when expecting that an intra-day low has been put in or a trend reversal in price has occurred (more in a near future post specific to this topic).

Sell-Off Trends, Bullish Trends, Indecision Areas of Trade. The structure in sell-offs intra-day, in bullish trends and during decisions is different. Each use their own area of support and resistance points of structure (as explained above).

Time of Day Considerations and Important Dates. When trading crude oil you need to know when the various global regular market exchange sessions start (how premarket and open price action typically affects the price of oil) and how these various markets affect price action.

For example, during early futures trading, very little machine trade is active. This causes machine trade predictability to be “sloppy” or “loose”. Conventional indicators should be weighted heavier until machine liquidity starts to increase (normally around 3 am Eastern time).

Holidays such as the US Memorial Day holiday is another example of low liquidity in the crude oil futures markets – machine trade and model precision can be less than optimum also.

Machine liquidity will however “kick-in” if there is a news event that causes considerable action in trade. Holidays can be very “loose” also and “slippage” within models is common.

The daily US crude oil settlement at 2:30 Eastern, Tuesday 4:30 crude oil API report, Wednesday API report are also important times of trade to understand. Volatility can be extreme during these events and unless you are sizing your trade minimally or are an expert you may want to close out well before and re-enter any intra-day trading after the event (swing trades and longer term trend trades may not have consideration toward these times of the week).

Regular premarket action and market open action is important if you are daytrading crude oil. Understanding how the regular market price action works, where important support and resistance areas are and where important time cycle decisions are on various time-frames becomes very important for a day trader.

In all scenarios, especially in active trade, the one minute model can be used to assess and deploy your trading strategy minute by minute.

Time Cycles. Time cycles are critical. There are time cycles on all time frames of trade. For example, on the 5 minute model you will notice as trade nears a time cycle peak (represented on the 5 minute chart as a vertical green line) that trade will usually more aggressively trend toward a support or resistance.

crude, oil, time cycles, daytrading, chart

Example of crude oil moving from time cycle to time cycle peak intra day on 5 minute trading chart, follow general trend.

On the 30 minute crude oil EPIC model the time cycles are highlighted as Tuesday 4:30 API, Wednesday 10:30 EIA Report and Friday 1:00 Est Rig Count.

In Part One of this report I highlighted the time cycle on the one minute chart (pointing out where two or more trendlines meet price) and you could see the result of that price target (or time cycle). A time cycle is a commonly used area of price target trade for the machine programming to use in probabilities of crude oil trade.

oil, trading, room, reversal, trade, signal, alert

Image (screen shot oil trading room) oil trade hit price target through resistance confirms uptrend trading signals

There are many, many examples of time cycles in trade (so many I cant include them all in this article). I will endeavor to continue sharing such information as time allows in the oil trading chat room on Discord (as I have for some time, reviewing previous signals and guidance in the chat room is wise for newer members). I will also continue to post what we learn about the time cycles as they apply to crude oil trade on the various models in future articles.

Members / clients can also review previous EPIC Oil Algorithm posts on our website by clicking on the blog section and then selecting the EPIC posts link.

Know When to Trade a Bounce at Support or Resistance. Knowing how to time your entry specific to probability of success is very important. For example, when trade is selling off you would watch each bounce very carefully. How many ticks was the bounce and is the range increasing? Is the volume / order flow increasing at each support? Is there evidence of a final take-out of stop orders? A final slam down of price under the support and a vicious reversal is a common reversal trade set up in crude oil.

Machine Price Targets. Knowing where (and why) the price targets are for machine trade is on each time frame can help with your trading strategy. Where two or meet price.

Moving Averages. We often cover in the live oil trading room how moving averages determine price action during trade each day. Moving averages affect trade action differently on different time frames and at different areas of each structure. Here also more articles coming. For now, the most important consideration is that moving averages should be considered in your trade strategy as support and resistance within the time frame you are trading. You should also be aware of moving average support and resistance on various time frames (more than just the time frame you are trading) so that you are aware of any critical decisions on the near term horizon when daytradingc crude oil.

Trade Sizing. Obviously trade sizing should be more considerable at range area support and resistance. You can leg in to these moves and typically find considerable profit for your annual returns in these areas of trade. Daytrading should find your sizing to be on the low side. I will be writing very detailed articles soon on this topic as we refine our machine trade software. I also intend to share some of this information live in the oil trading room on a regular basis near terms.

Sizing your daytrading orders should be small as I mentioned, however, if you get good at timing the reversals in trend this can allow you to size in to those intr-day trends. I highly encourage daytraders to focus on the reversals. I have written some posts on the topic but intend to focus on reversals and trade sizing in the very near term both in writing and in the main trading room (posting videos etc also).

Daily Trend Signals (Following the Trend Intra-Day).

Intra-day trend for daytraders in crude oil is critical to lock in (it is also for our machine trade coding).

We have recently (as I mentioned) finished coding the 18 models (which was the biggest part of the heavy lifting – we have the structured models designed, tested in real world and coded). Also critical was order flow, we have that done. Next critical are the “set-ups” so that a daytrader or the software then knows what set-up intra-day is in play.

More specifically (for this post) the intra day trend of trade signal is critical. Knowing where the reversals are likely to take place, when they have occurred (confirmation) or even where continuation is taking place and then being able to size in to that trend in a predictable yet low risk way is really, really important for an oil daytrader.

This specifically will be our near term focus for our members, enterprise clients and our software development “tweaks” as one of the primary main focus set ups to be coded. I can’t over-emphasize its importance to your ROI.

You will find our focus specific to this over the coming days in the trading room, on Discord and in articles I provide members.

Below is an image that provides a clear example from today’s trade action in crude oil futures (on the Memorial Day Holiday Monday). The price moved 100 points from 58.22 at 9:00 AM this morning to 59.22 at near 2:30 as of time of writing.

Our machine software did not fire on the trade for numerous reasons (even though the trend was clear, it was confirmed structure on the 30 min EPIC model, it was firing off the blue support and resistance on the one minute model etc).

The software primarily did not fire because the liquidity was not in trade today for the software to confirm the trade.

So this is a clear example of the importance of having the trade set-ups also programmed to the software and giving the set-ups appropriate weight in the code vs. model structure and order flow. This is also very important for the human daytrader executing manual trades.

You will find that most days, at important support and resistance areas of the primary models confirmed at important time of day of trade that a trend for an excellent intra-day trade within your daytrade strategy is not only possible, but we believe highly probable to execute on a high percentage of days.

Trend following intra-day will be (as I’ve said) a very very high focus point for us near term (and the subsequent sizing etc).

daytrading, trend, signals, strategy, crude oil

Daytrading range in crude oil on holiday 58.22 to 59.22 trending strategy signals.

In closing I’ll say that we’ve come a long way, it hasn’t been an easy grind up but we’re doing it one step at a time. I really appreciate you coming along with us on this journey.

If you have any other ideas or things you have learned in your own trading regarding this article please send me an email at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com or shoot me a note if you have any questions etc. As I mentioned earlier in this post I will email the links for models independent of this article and the weekly EPIC reporting (in case you didn’t know) will be out Tuesday due to the Memorial Day Holiday to allow for the chart data to reset for the week before we run the chart models.

Have a great week traders!

Curt

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Shorting, Support, Resistance, Reversals, Trend Following, Trending, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Below You Will Find Proprietary Oil Trading Signals Not Available Elsewhere. 

When Crude Oil Starts Selling Off Intra-Day Volatility Increases Fast. Knowing Where and Having the Signals for Support and Resistance On The One Minute Chart Will Help Your Trading Strategy.

If you day-trade crude oil futures contracts (or if you are learning how to day trade crude oil) the chart models and signals below will help you understand the structure of trade on intra-day charting (like using a GPS or a map).

The trade signals provided below will increase your trading win rate and ROI on each trade (as you learn to trade the set-ups or strategies).

We can also help you with confirming that the trend is actually bearish (selling in downtrend) and when price is likely to reverse intra-day and oil trade is likely to turn bullish. 

This is part one of a two part post (part one is public and part two is premium member only).

How Oil Sells Off Intra-day on Stairs to Support Floors Down.

The structure of oil sell-offs is not the same as when oil trades up. When crude oil trade is bearish intra-day you will find that it has specific areas of support / floors (this is also true when price is bullish but the structure or steps of trade are different).

When oil is trading down the price will often quickly drop to the next support and will then hang around for sometime and possibly test resistance areas for a possible reversal. When the reversal doesn’t happen or work then price drops quickly to the next floor of support.

The price of oil drops quickly to support and then the bulls will try and trade price back up (along with a certain amount of the shorts covering short positions) for a snap back or price reversal trade. At each support you will find this process occurring.

The more support there is on the charting (on various chart time-frames) the more likely a snap-back trade will occur (price reverses intra-day). This is why we have algorithmic models and conventional charting for all time frames that we use in the oil trading room, in member reporting and coded in to our machine trading software.

The goal is to know where each support and resistance point is on the charting so that you can develop a trading strategy for intra day moves in oil price.  

When you know where the support and resistance is you can then day trade the price of oil with more perspective or clarity.

Before you can learn how to trade a financial instrument (such as crude oil futures contracts) it is important to know the structure of the instrument (as it applies to the charting on various time-frames).

Once you know the structure (the playing field or like I refer to it as a GPS or map) then you need to learn how to trade that specific structure (this is where your personal trading style and strategies come in to play).

Knowing where support and resistance is on the charting allows you to set stops properly, it also helps you with sizing the number of contracts you are trading (trimming and adding to your trade size) and more.

There are two reasons we know the chart structure in the trade of oil (every financial instrument has a structure – like your DNA or the rings on a tree).

One reason is that we construct algorithmic charting models and the other is that we are coding for machine trade of oil. Both reasons require us to back test our charting. It isn’t enough to chart conventional trend-lines (or whatever it is you are charting) and it isn’t enough to design an algorithmic chart model – the assumptions for consideration in trade, such as support and resistances areas, need to be back tested so that you have a quantifiable high probability of success.

You need to know that your assumptions provide highly probable set-ups (trade signals) to provide you a trading edge.

When we chart for the purpose of trading signals we first start with conventional charting (on all time frames) and then move to charting algorithmic models of highly probable areas of support and resistance of trade (visual representation of important structure points of the charting) and then we move to coding what we know to be most probable areas of support and resistance in trade. I should note for completeness that our models provide much more than support and resistance, there are other important trade signals such as time cycles, the structure of trade itself on various time-frames and much more.

We use the charting for crude oil on thirteen different time-frames (1 minute charting through to monthly charting), we chart it on conventional charts, work with algorithmic modelling and back test all the various indicators for up to 60 months (such as moving averages, VWAP, MACD, stochastic RSI and more).

When we back test our assumptions we are calculating the probability of that structure in trade re-occurring. When we find a structure with high probability of repeating then we model that structure and code it to our machine trade software.

In this specific area of day-trading (intra-day sell-offs and reversals) we can help you with what structure is in play on the one minute chart as oil sells off and what to watch for so that you know the sell-off is likely done and the price trend is about to change and turn bullish for price reversal.

Support And Resistance On The One Minute Oil Chart in Sell-Offs.

Specific to crude oil, sell-off support and resistance on the charting is VERY PREDICTABLE. You will find that the areas of support are very precise and price will step down in a very structured way on the chart – this is a near exact science.

Why is the trade of oil so precise on the one minute chart when oil sells off? The answer is very likely because the trade of oil is now mostly done by software programmed / coded for machine trade and this machine trade liquidity has caused very specific structures of trade to manifest.

Lets Look at Some Recent Crude Oil Trade From our Oil Trading Room.

Below is a screen shot from our oil trade chat room on Discord (which is not the same as the live broadcast oil trading room) of a comment and a chart of intra day trade in crude oil (this was posted at 1:03 PM last Thursday).

My comment in the trading room reads “perfect structured sell down out of support in to next buy trigger”. What this means is that crude oil sold off intra day, it lost its area of support (the yellow diagonal trend line on the one minute chart model) and then dropped perfectly to the next support decision line on the chart (yellow line again) and then price bounced to test resistance.

By the way, the crude oil trade alerts are both what you see below (the Discord private server screen images below) and alerted on a private member Twitter feed.

This structure (you see below) occurred over and over again daily this week during sell-offs. This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.

Click here for an article that explains what short selling is.

This is by far one of the most predictable signals available for day-trading crude oil you will find. It has one of the highest probabilities of success in oil trade model charting.

The key to success however is learning what the structure is (having the model at your disposal for when you trade) so that you can size your trades properly and set stop orders properly etc – learning how to use the signals for your strategy and knowing when trade is likely to stop selling off so that you can then begin planning for a trend reversal.

This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.

crude, oil, trading, room, chart

Crude oil trading chat room screen capture of day trade in oil selling off using support. #oil #tradingroom #daytrading

And then in the screen shot below from the oil trading room you will see on the next chart posted to the room that oil started to bounce (or trade up) from the support (or buy trigger signal) on the chart. I then asked our software developer Jeremy to note that the software did not trigger a long trade for our coding updates to be done later that night.

Look close at his answer / comment to my request, he knew why the software did not signal a trigger for a long trade (and also why there was no trade alert as such on our member feed to buy)… it was because the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.

the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.

oil, trading, day trading, traders, room

Screen shot of oil trading room, price of oil trying to reverse, day trading signals for our strategy and discussion between traders.

And sure enough, if you look at the next image below you see that they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure (next yellow line down representing next support in a sell off). Again, it was precise trade action.

they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure

crude, oil, short selling, daytrade, signal

Oil short sell signal for daytrading strategy on the algorithmic chart model for day traders.

Then you will notice that I alerted the oil trading room (at 1:12 PM Thursday) that the bulls are starting to buy at each support area of the one minute chart (in other words, be aware that a price reversal in intra-day trade could occur soon).

There were buy programs and/or day-traders starting to buy at supports that are not support areas for a continued sell-off, they are areas of support for either indecision (or a decision is needed) or support for trading bullish (or in an uptrend).

This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal). These lines are at the white diagonal (signals a decision area of charting) and the blue diagonal (signals bullish support) on the chart model.

Oil was trading at 57.44 on FX USOIL WTI at the time.

This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal).

trade signal, alert, reversal, oil trade room

Screen capture of oil trading room alert signalling for daytraders to watch for trend reversal in day trade action.

And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal. I was explaining to our day traders in the room at the time (this screen shot is taken on the weekend so you don’t see who was in the oil trade room at the time in the image) what to watch for in intra-day trade action for a confirmation of trend reversal. In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.

In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.

trend reversal, bounce, trade, crude oil

And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal.

And then in this image (screen shot from oil trading room) you see that trade hit the price target and got through resistance confirming more that the low of day in trade had been put in and that we were now alerting bias to uptrend trading signals going forward for oil trade on the day.

Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model – this is machine trade. Knowing what the large liquidity in machine trade is doing is key now when day trading crude oil. This is very important.

Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model.

oil, trading, room, reversal, trade, signal, alert

Image (screen shot oil trading room) oil trade hit price target through resistance confirms uptrend trading signals

Looking at the chart below you can see very clearly how precise the day trading signals are on the daytrading algorithmic crude oil model.

  • The green arrows show three shorting opportunities from yellow diagonal support / resistance to the next yellow diagonal support / resistance (like stairs stepping trade down in the model).
  • You will notice that the last stair down that trade over shot the yellow line a bit, this is a signal that an intra-day bottom is being put in.
  • You can also notice (from the charts shown above) that as buying came in at the decision support / resistance lines (white diagonal lines on chart model) and at the blue decision diagonal support / resistance lines that I alerted a possible trend reversal in trade.
  • Then you will notice (see chart below) that trade got through the yellow resistance after bouncing (yellow arrow on chart) – this is a bullish intra-day signal that a reversal is likely near.
  • And then next in trade you will see that trade bounced at the blue diagonal trend-line (blue arrow) when it pulled back from resistance, a bounce at a blue line is further confirmation that trade is now bullish intra-day. The blue lines are used as support and resistance in an intra-day uptrend.
  • And then the subsequent blue arrows on the chart show how trade breached in to the next bullish area, then pulled back and used the blue line as support (after confirming up after hitting a decision white line) for a bounce and then so on through the bullish trade reversal in the daytrading sequence.
  • Blue is for trading in uptrend, yellow is trading a sell off, white is a reference point for a decision to go up or down in trend on the model.
  • The trend-lines on this algorithm model are not conventional. The trend-lines are algorithmic calculations and therefore proprietary and not available elsewhere.

How powerful is that for an oil daytrader?

Knowing exactly where the support and resistance is during a sell-off and knowing with high probability where the turn is likely to happen for reversal in trade and then knowing exactly where to trade the uptrend.

daytrading, crude, oil, signals, algorithm

Algorithmic chart model for shorting oil, trading a reversal in oil and decision areas of daytrading signals.

Below is the video explanation that accompanies this post (live oil trading room footage included).

In part two (the premium member post) we will take a deeper look at strategies for trading the one minute model (such as trade sizing and seeing the reversals in advance) and I will provide chart links to the proprietary algorithmic models via email to our members.

Protected: Part 2. Deep Dive Day Trading Signals Crude Oil Sell-Off, Reversals, Trend Trade | 1 Min Strategies (Premium).

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trade Alerts, Trading, Oil Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Shorting, Support, Resistance, Reversals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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