Volatility $VIX Trade Update Wednesday Jan 25, 2017 $TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV Charting / Algorithm Observations
Good morning! My name is Vexatious $VIX the Algo. Welcome to my new $VIX trade report.
Notices:
We have left information from the last few reports at the bottom of this report for reading / review ease for our new members over the last few days.
New Service Options: We now also offer a stand-alone trading room option now vs. bundle (incl. trading room, premarket newsletter, alerts). Plans from $1.22 per day w/ promo code.
How My Algorithm Works and Availability:
I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on individual merit) such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and other mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo integration – only math. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price movements of the volatility index (more specifically $VIX).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered as one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.
My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and a recent post by my developer that explains more about “Why Our Algorithms are Different than Most”.
I Am In Very Early Stage Development
My algorithm is the sixth in the line of six that my developers are working with – which means I am in the very early stages. So you will find my charting below to be very simple (relative to say the first algo developed EPIC the Oil algo). So if you find that my initial charting does not assist you with an edge in your trading please let the office know by emal [email protected] within 30 days of signing up so they can refund you. If you do chose that option, you can always check back as 2017 progresses when my algorithm processes / indicators for your trading edge will be very extensive.
Is should also note, that specific to the $VIX, this algorithmic modeling work is much different than an indices, a commodity or a currency – each come with their own challenges, but specific to volatility the challenges in modeling predictability are exceptional.
Current Trade in Volatility
$VIX is almost at lowest possible levels so for today and until it starts to trend up we will not be able to provide algorithmic charting. We will however provide all charting details the moment it starts to trend upward.
Until then I have left the recent report data below and offer just a few insights;
1.9% of $VIX readings over the past 27 years have been lower than yesterday.
Second lowest $VIX ever for the 2nd day of the Feb OPEX cycle.
Lowest $VIX print in last 5 years was 10.28 on July 3, 2014. $VIX reached 17+ a month later. Tuesday hit 11.04. At print $VIX trading at 10.7.
Bloomberg Article: There’s Been a Big Spike in the Cost of Protecting Against a Market Crash https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/cost-of-tail-risk-hedges-spikes-while-vix-remains-calm-chart
Per Previous;
$VIX Trading Observations:
The VIX has gotten crushed once again. We expected to be able to publish all levels for trading quadrants today (when we reported last week), however, with-out upward trade this is impossible. The manner in which VIX trades we require an upward trend to publish specific trading quadrants and targets specific to the move because each move comes with its own specific velocity. So that leaves us waiting for another upward trending trade move before we can update the trading targets. So for now the report below includes current charting and recent report excerpts (for the newest members to review).
$VIX Fibonacci levels our traders are watching intraday. Down -9.75% and at 11.5.
$VIX Down 9.7% at 11.5
Important consideration should be given to below (even though powers that be have continued to crush the $VIX)
$VIX vs. TDC
Also for consideration, $VIX futures net short positioning at all time highs.
$VIX Net Short via StockBoardAsset
Previous Report Excerpts:
$VIX FIbonacci levels our traders are watching intraday.
Live $VIX chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/XScHpt7y-VIX-Charting-in-Progress/
$VIX Charting in Progress
$VIX Awesome oscillator, True Strength Indicator, Stochastic RSI, 200 Day on 1 Hour
This is interesting. Above the 200 day and the Stoch RSI is turned down! If that Stoch RSI turns up wham!
$VIX TSI, Stoch RSI, AO 200 day on 1 Hour
$VIX overhead resistance at yellow line
$VIX overhead resistance at yellow line
Anyway, we’ll have much for you starting Monday now that the math is locked in.
Below are details from other recent $VIX posts for new members to review.
Excerpts from Jan 17, 2017 Report
$VIX Awesome oscillator, True Strength Indicator, Stochastic RSI
$VIX Awesome oscillator, True Strength Indicator, Stochastic RSI
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GLBS/ikB5w5WZ-VIX-Awesome-oscillator-True-Strength-Indicator-Stochastic-RSI/
$VIX with Bollinger vs $SPX
$VIX with Bollinger vs $SPX
Excerpts from Jan 10, 2017 $VIX Report:
So yesterday we did see some lift in the $VIX and then it came off some. We do expect a volatility increase as we near Jan 20. As it rises we will post levels for intraday trading our traders will be using. Other than that, there are no new indicators to report intraday.
$VIX Chart
$VIX Chart 510 AM Jan 10 2017
Per yesterday;
Live Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/NagLpI9Y-Vexatious-VIX-Volatility-Algo-Algorithmic-Modeling-Jan-09-134-A/
First, it seems volatility (based on probability calculations) is due for an increase – see red line on chart below for the most probable scenario short term.
Until volatility starts to rise this is the best we can do – provide the most probable scenario.
However, as soon as it starts to rise we can then provide historical averages / probabilities and indicators to move with the price action and trade in and out of volatility price action.
If you are shorting volatility, the trend-line in yellow has proven to be effective of the last number of months, however, we would caution relying on it.
So the bottom line with the $VIX as it is intra-day – our traders are waiting for the indicators to turn positive at which time we will be issuing posts relating to intra-day trading ranges – until then we wait.
Vexatious $VIX Volatility Algo Algorithmic Modeling Jan 09 134 AM $TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV
Other considerations:
Per previous;
Demark exhaustion
$VIX Tom Demark exhaustion is at its 13th most in last 10 years. Average upside return at these levels is 97% within average thirty-five days on last twelve occasions.
An Average Year for $SPX and $VIX
As of close Friday
$VIX 11.28 #Contango 13.62 %
$XIV gains 0.80% daily from contango
$VXX holds 35% VX1 and 65% VX2 futures
6 trading days to expiration
UVXY Reverse Split Ahead: How To Position When Volatility Spikes
http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/uvxy-reverse-split-ahead-how-to-position-when-volatility-spikes?post=118064
Alpha Algo Trading Lines:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Alpha Algo Trading Targets:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Intra Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Time / Price Cycle Change Forecast:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Conclusion:
Our indicators all point toward an increase in volatility very soon – days and weeks at most, at which time we will publish intra-day trading ranges for our members
Good luck with your trades and look forward to seeing you in the room!
Vexatious the $VIX Algo
Article Topics: Vexatious $VIX Algo, Volatility, Stocks, Wallstreet, Trading, Chatroom, Algorithms, $TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV
