A Large Time-Cycle in Global Markets is at an Inflection Point, Below Are Trade Set-Ups to Watch.
The Swing Trades (Trends), Investment (Hedge) and Day Trade Ideas Below Reflect Two Primary Opposing Scenarios.
I have messaged this possible development in the markets being near for some time – the time is here-now in my best estimation.
In to December I was messaging a large time cycle to start late December 2018 (saying that it would be the biggest in my 30 years of trading) and that it would last in to the third week of May 2019 and for some financial instruments (such as crude oil) in to the week of June 10, 2019.
The market ran hard from Dec 24, 2018 until early May and then really came off in to the 3rd week of May.
The run was in many ways one of the most significant in modern time. The next is huge and lasts in to 2025 (sure there are time-cycles on lower time frames in between the big). Everything is about to change (if I’m correct).
One scenario has the masters of the global economy using magic money, rates, manipulated media and the like to run markets up and up.
The other opposing scenario sees masters of the globe at war with one another, resulting in market upheaval, whipsaw at best.
One scenario has precious metals to the moon and the other with continued price suppression – look at a long term Gold chart.
One scenario has crypto flying high with Bitcoin at 1,000,000.00 plus and the other with Facebook’s crypto offering at 1,000,000.00 and Bitcoin at tanking to 900.00 (some drama added there).
One has the old guard in tech (social media) giants such as Facebook, Google and Twitter flourishing – avoiding DOJ investigation, suppressing global community back-lash and reigning supreme dominance over upstart threats.
The other sees old guard tech under endless government investigation resulting in possible break-ups in to disjointed parts of the old, global consciousness pushing back against privacy intrusion and new competitors out-smarting and maneuvering them.
One has new tech niche areas of opportunity finding fantastic success in a world that needs more security, more connectivity and more monitoring. More VR, more movies, more me – it is about me after all.
The other has investors supporting ethically driven tech management teams creating new paradigms in corporate global community tech structures.
One has globalists rolling out a continued grand vision of the new world order. And the other scenario finds the likes of Soros picking up pieces of the past, if at all.
I could go on for a week with examples. I’m sure you get the point.
We believe these two opposing scenarios will play out over the next five or so years like a ping-pong game (we’re riding the ball in the game) – extreme opposite scenarios at war.
For one day, a week, a month (or more) everything will run to the moon and then as fast as you can turn your head between monitors the whole game will change.
We see our job to be aware, prepared and awake enough to execute on the opportunities this upheaval will bring.
This will require flexibility in trading strategy, it will demand a lot of study and intensive focus on a daily basis.
Our reporting will reflect this. It will be more regular and include more diversity of trade set-ups going forward.
This will also require an understanding of the structure of the financial instruments on watch. The study and understanding of the structure is required in advance. As the opportunities arise (as markets are inflecting) then these reports (and included charts and links) can be referenced quickly and instruments traded within a few seconds or minutes because the work has been done in advance.
We will look at our standards (Gold, Silver, USD, Oil, SPY, BTC, VIX) in more depth and more often.
We will look to the oversold, over bought, the neglected and undervalued equities. Large, mid, small and micro cap equities. Catalysts within time-frames will be key.
Global market inflections will also be key – in commodities, indices, equities, currencies, bonds, credit, crypto and more. If it is a financial instrument that can be traded and the opportunity for exception risk reward is present – expect our reporting to cover it.
Why? Because there will be opportunity within very specific areas of inflection, but we see a nimble bias with focused intention to be required.
We see turmoil on the horizon, and we don’t expect that to dissipate, we expect it to escalate.
If we are correct, our economic reality will change over the next five or six years in ways that will confuse the pundits and masses.
We intend to trade the confusion, uncertainty, inflections, volatility and hidden opportunity with skill and purpose.
Below are the first of the set-ups.
We will start with some timely standards (to be sure we have the general structure of the playing field) and then over the coming days and weeks we will move more and more in to catalyst driven equities, commodities, currencies, indices etc.
Note: Check the date on each chart to be sure they are current to your time-frame.
Lets consider defensive trades, the hedges, the volatility scenarios.
Trade # 1 – The Trade You Don’t Want to Ignore, AngloGold Ashanti (AU)
On the weekend we provided a highlighted equity (Gold related hedge positioning play), you can find it here;
Be careful with your bias, do not ignore this fantastic risk reward opportunity packed with an opportunity to hedge your portfolio against volatility created within poor equity market sentiment scenarios. I don’t warn often and if you have followed me for any time, when I do I’m normally spot on. One of our skills. Another is time cycles.
Bottom line, the return on investment vs. return within consideration of the hedging bonus makes this play hard to beat. When sentiment tanks long this thing, when sentiment improves trim your longs, rinse, repeat. You are likely to see a better return trading AU than you will trading Gold, Silver and other similar plays.
Trade # 2 – Volatility Itself. VIX. Soon we will look at the volatility within volatility trade, for now, lets look at the structural VIX charting and related instruments for trade.
The simple volatility time cycles on simple structured VIX charting are one of the best timing gauges for equity market moves and sentiment. Overlooked by mainstream financial market media so much I have to assume it is intentional. Lets take a look at what VIX has to tell us.
One my favorites, below are my comments and observations;
- I produced this chart in late 2018 telling clients to watch out because that trend-line was coming to an end. That resistance would be gone and a new era in volatility was around the corner. Obviously. What wasn’t so obvious was what structure (form) this coming volatility would take, so I provided three scenarios (review chart below). The scenarios (or possible structures of trade within the instrument) are all playing out in real world trade in 2019. Why do I mention this? Because I know our time cycle and financial instrument structured charting (modeling) hits a high percentage of the time. Why does that matter? Because its our job to be right. To help our clients make money. Check our record with time cycles and instrument model structure. Here’s the problem, people don’t have time so they think / say things like this… if your record is so good then you could alert every trade for me, or trade for me everything you see, or nobody can be right that often and on and on and on. All I can say is check our record in presenting structured models and time cycles. It’s our primary / main / best asset to our clients. We can’t trade every set-up, we can’t alert every set-up, but we can report (like this) and it’s up to you (in large part) to reference previous reporting and check the models. They work, you just have to consider it your library of structured set ups. So I’ll say it again, it isn’t a need to be right for the sake of being able to say we are right. Our job is to be right and remind our clients of where specifically we are typically most right. We are most right in this type of example. Structured time cycle chart models. VIX is a perfect example.
- Look closely at the diagonal GANN fanning support and resistance areas, they will help you trade this.
- Pay close attention to the vertical red dotted (time cycle) measured time frames for inflections in price. You will notice price to spike in to or out of or dump in to and spike out of each vertical time cycle.
- Notice the orange triangle (which was the third consideration when I put out the detailed VIX report), it was the most peaked of the structures and sure enough VIX spiked highest right on time right there.
- The horizontal Fibonacci levels are the least of the consideration with trading VIX.
- When a time cycle is coming due… think about the equity markets relative to the probability of VIX spiking in to the time cycle (vertical red) or dumping in to the time cycle. If Volatility is in a trend to continue dumping in to the vertical then your equity longs should be your bias. If the trend for VIX in to that vertical is likely to see a spike then you should be thinking in terms of a bias long Bitcoin, previous metals, VIX etc.
- Remember, this chart wasn’t just modeled, it was modeled six or more months ago. Think GPS, road map, structure etc.
- This is likely one of the best gauges of global market sentiment relative to equity positioning you will find. And mainstream media won’t tell you how simple it is to model it so that you can position your trading properly in to each inflection.
So what does the VIX charting and /or structured chart models say about the future now?
1 – Volatility (VIX) MACD may be turning up signalling a long.
The problem is that price is above mid Bollinger nearing upper band, this isn’t a best case long timing, but timing may not be on your side here (review structured model on chart down). The time to short the VIX (you can short TVIX or UVXY ETNs for leveraged exposure fyi) is not until price is above the upper Bollinger. I don’t recommend holding a short position as such over night.
You can day trade and swing trade volatility with UVXY, TVIX and other related instruments of trade.
2 – If history rhymes, volatility (VIX) will spike in to Oct 21, 2019 and start early in progression. $VIX #swingtrading
Look closely at the price trend in VIX, the progression in bullish behavior of the VIX trade is starting earlier and earlier in to each time cycle peak (the peak represented by the three pyramids). Now, does this mean it will happen again for sure? No, absolutely not. HOWEVER, there is a significant probability that the next occurs on time, the trend continues bullish earlier as represented on the chart and if I’m right, the next spike could be significantly higher than the previous two. In fact, it could extend 50% more without effort. Momentum is building.
The chart below is how I knew that the time cycles for the general markets extended from the week of Dec 17, 2018 (approx) to the week of May 21 (approx). There were some other important chart models in the markets that implied that the week of May 21 could be extended to the week of June 10. The correlation between the key models in various areas of the markets is key.
If volatility spikes in to October 2019, I think 41.00 is an easy price target and 50 – 60 are possible. It is an “if” it spikes scenario however.
Shorting volatility in to this time cycle in to late 2019 would be foolish imo.
Trade # 3 – Bitcoin. BTC XBT
When I signaled an alert to long Bitcoin, this was your best clue (that we could provide) that equity market pressure wasn’t far behind. Not that BTC moves can be correlated to equity markets, but a signal to buy Bitcoin after a long consolidation (and likely manipulation) period should be considered as a bearish signal for equity markets. Perhaps a bullish signal for Gold and Silver also, however, Gold and Silver have an invisible hand that BTC does not. BTC is likely to be allowed to live, if not thrive for some time in a scenario in which the likes of Facebook FB are allowed (or directed) to create and grow crypto networks within their platforms.
It was an obvious trade imo (long BTC).
The screen shot of the alert below to long Bitcoin shows the date to be at the end of January 2019. How did I time this trade? Market forces began messaging Facebook’s intent to launch a crypto currency.
If Facebook is endorsing crypto “they” – the invisible hand are likely to allow BTC to run. If BTC runs crypto enthusiasts become happy preparing the way for the Facebook “better” alternative. Simple manipulation of the masses.
Lets look at the structure of the Bitcoin trade now.
Bitcoin trading strategies and alerts. Green arrow buy alert, red arrow trim longs, support and resistance noted $BTC
The one scenario below shows the white arrows trending up and the other with white arrow trending down to what I see as near term support.
Each horizontal Fibonacci line (and diagonal gray dotted) is support and resistance. Size your trades, adds, trims etc according to them. The more important decisions are marked on the chart with white arrows.
The orange box is a trading box. When price is in the box expect large moves. Use the mid point of the box as support and resistance.
The green arrow is when we alerted to our clients to buy and the red arrow is when we alerted to trim long positions.
Over 9575.00 (held) is very bullish. Bitcoin is trading at 7914.00 intra-day. The 6440.00 area is considerable support in my opinion. Anything under that is bearish.
Bitcoin can be traded on various crypto exchanges, on US exchanges you can trade BTC (XBT) futures, there are Bitcoin related equities (in an upcoming post) and there are swap exchanges that enable trade with instruments such as XBTUSD.
Trade # 4 – Crude Oil $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT
Daily – measured move extension on Fib structure, could be bottom support. White arrows.
This could be an area of trade that sees a near term bottom. Crude oil is not easy to trade, but if you get the turns on the larger structure right, there are few financial instruments that can return profit to your portfolio like oil can. But you have to get it right.
Crude oil can be traded on regular equity markets using UWT (long oil) DWT (short oil) and with a variety of other related instruments of trade.
Crude Oil Chart Structure.
Below is a large charting time-frame with structured support and resistance areas in a grid to help you with perspective in trade positioning on a wide time frame.
Use the trend-lines and horizontal / diagonal Fibonacci lines for general areas of support and resistance. A channel will develop soon that will help with your trade size and flow.
Trade # 5 – Gold $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD
Gold Chart, areas of support and resistance are marked, red triangle, arrows and FIbonacci. $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD.
I am still short Gold but I will have to seriously reconsider if price beaches the red line resistance above. It is in to a time cycle peak for ealy August so I am watching closely here.
Trade # 6 – US Dollar Index $DXY $UUP
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading within a structured range, watch for divergent moves going forward. $DXY $UUP
I have been bullish the dollar since its range lows back in January of 2018, however, I’m starting to tilt to the bearish side and looking for a short under the 200 MA on the Weekly Chart (pink line below).
Trade # 7 – Silver $SI_F $SLV $USLV $DSLV
The key to the Silver trade is the squeeze momentum indicator (at bottom of chart) on the Weekly time frame. #Silver
I have watched the Silver trade for years, and this beyond most has been manipulated by an invisible hand for some time. One of the few indicators that works with reliability is the squeeze momentum indicators specifically on the weekly time-frame. When it is deep in red and turns dark red its a buy and when it is red and turns green it is also a buy.
When it turns to a buy next time I will provide the shorter time frame model that is very predictable.
Trade # 8 – ALPHABET / GOOGLE (GOOGL), FACEBOOK (FB), TWITTER (TWTR), AMAZON (AMZN) and more tech titans.
In the next report (out within days and not weeks) we will dig in deep with technical trade strategies for GOOGL, FB, TWTR, AMZN and more of these that provide downside risk in my opinion. In near future I will also highlight other tech related that I believe are going to do very well.
For now, if you don’t already know what is happening with big tech, the links below will give you an idea of the problems these companies are facing.
I have been alerting for some time that Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and others contain significant downside risk in the upcoming clash of the titans.
Team Trump doesn’t like their bias, censorship or control over the general narrative. If Trump gets his way, these companies will look very different in to 2025.
This past weekend (Friday night) news came out that Google (Alphabet, the parent) is under DOJ investigation.
— Swing Trading (@swingtrading_ct) June 2, 2019
Read this thread on Twitter about the Google DOJ challenge https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1134643043225804806
My bias is to short Google and Facebook at every important resistance area (and perhaps Twitter and even Amazon if it sets up properly).
On the flip side, you can see these tech titans also starting to position themselves for the change near. Facebook bought Instagram and Whatsapp because Facebook is obviously in late cycle growth. Facebook may also have a crypto offering and a payments platform very soon.
But Facebook has BIG challenges ahead;
Is Facebook a publisher? In public it says no, but in court it says yes #swingtrading $FB
— Swing Trading (@swingtrading_ct) June 1, 2019
Below an example challenge for Amazon near term;
Amazon will reportedly fall under antitrust oversight from the FTC #swingtrading $AMZN https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/2/18649375/amazon-federal-trade-commission-ftc-doj-antitrust?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter … via @Verge
Day Trade of The Day, Sorrento Therapeutics SRNE (May turn in to a swing trade).
Long SRNE premarket 3.00 area for a day trade maybe swing with a 4.75 price target on news. #daytrade #swingtrade
The next report, and they will be regular going forward, we will deal with Tech and many other equities.
Article Topics; Swing trading, investing, day trading, VIX, BTC, OIL, DXY, GOLD, SILVER, AU, FB, GOOGL, AMZN, SRNE, time cycles, strategies
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