Part Two of What They Won’t Tell You and How We Daytrade Crude Oil Against the Machines

Below is another daytrading session disclosure of real-time oil trade alerts from our oil trading room and alert feeds.

Many in the markets will tell you that there are no crystal balls in the stock market (in this instance in commodity markets). Others will tell you that order flow is key, or storage, OPEC or whatever else. And sure, on broad time-frames there are many different indications of oil price direction that provide clues.

But when daytrading crude oil, everything, and I mean everything other than what the machine trading liquidity dominant players are doing is relavent.

Below you will see real time oil trading alerts from our private member feed, and real time guidance I provided to the oil trading room while I was trading and even public faxing tweets from my personal Twitter feed.

Sometimes I will tweet on my own public facing feed in an effort to show the trading world what is really happening to our markets, but cognitive dissonance keeps most bound to what the shiny balls on TV have to say. So I am not sure whether I’ll continue much longer in that because it’s a lot of effort and you feel like you get nowhere.

Anyway, enough of that, I’ll let the real-time alerts and trading room discussions below do the talking.

Take the time to read this carefully and the previous post you can find here: 

What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI

When done think about it, spend some time reflecting on what this means for the future of the markets. Beyond just winning and having the best daytrading oil strategies there are real ramifications here.

Okay, good luck with your $STUDY, let me know if you need anything after you have reviewed the documentation below.

Let’s start here, when daytrading crude oil the most important thing you can do is know where you are in the playing field – the structure of crude oil trade within the dominant time cycle. This is key. If you know the time cycle that the dominant players (liquidity) are trading on then you can then trade along with them. This is by far the best oil trading strategy you will ever find.

From yesterday’s article (part 1) I had shared the one hour crude oil chart model and showed you exactly what the structure was and what the TIMING of the price target the dominant daytrading liquidity was targeting. This is the key to successful crude oil daytrading.

Below is the updated 1 hour daytrading oil chart. Take a look at today and yesterday (in part 1). And then read yesterday’s article closely and you will see that we knew exactly where the price of oil was going to be, in advance.

But first, the oil chart.

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.

You can see how the machine dominant liquidity has traded very technically toward the price target at 1:00 PM Thursday. What determines if the price target is met? At each decision along the way if retail order flow follows the dominant machines, the machines simply take price to the next decision most efficiently. It’s that simple.

So as you can see in the chart below, the daytrading action in oil has been consistently toward the price target within the chart structure.

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts

Okay, now that you have “perspective” of the arena or battleground, let’s look at the real-time charting, trade alerts and commentary from the alert feed and oil trading room:

Below are only highlights and snippets of the discussion and guidance I provided to the oil trading room, private Twitter alert feed, charting and even public facing personal Twitter feed. To keep this article as short as possible I provide only highlights of the trade sequence below.

Screen shot of oil trading room lead trade alerting initial trade position in crude oil futures with guidance.

“Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 9:21 PM
Long 16.10 2/10
personal trade will advise
order flow progressive I’m going to go with it, over 16 resistance on hourly model
I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2-% size 16.10 #oiltradealerts

Curt MelonopolyToday at 9:44 PM
this trade could easily come back to 15.67 before bullish continuation imo so i’m being cautious, its the 30 min EPIC model that concerns me a bit
but the 1 hour has been so strong i’m going with a possible run up with bulls, basically managing that RR
and on hourly 15.74 is the diagonal TL support
so in short, if it pulls back i’ll hold 2/10 re-hit 15.64 area if it gets there with an add 2/10 if that fails cut the loss, but i’m going to play it for the possible run up in to Thurs mid day
so there’s some risk but possible reward is significant
potential run is about 140 ticks up and risk is 60, so there’s different ways to manage that i suppose
easier to manage this type of trade with CFDs than CL contracts, I may take on CFDs in near futures as an addition to my personal trading for these scenarios.”

Sccreen shot of oil trading room lead trade alerting initial trade position in crude oil futures with guidance #oiltradingroom

Screen shot of oil trading room lead trade alerting initial trade position in crude oil futures with guidance #oiltradingroom

Screen shot of oil trade alerts member Twitter feed of initial entry in crude oil by lead trader.

oil trade alerts, live

Screen shot of oil trade alert member Twitter feed of initial entry in crude oil by lead trader #oiltradealerts

Charting shared to oil trading room.

“I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2/10 size 16.10 #oiltradealerts”

I don't like this time of day, but I'm going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2-% size 16.10 #oiltradealerts

I don’t like this time of day, but I’m going with order flow over 16.00 resistance on hourly crude oil model, long 2-% size 16.10 #oiltradealerts

What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame.

Entries in crude oil futures are the green arrows and the red are when the trades are closed on the daytrading time-frame charting.

What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame #oiltradealerts

What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame #oiltradealerts

Another screen shot of oil trading room and the guidance I’m providing to the daytraders as we progress through trade.

Will trim at .30 if we get it here, trading 16.25 —-> Trim 1/10 16.30 hold 1.10
took the trim i want the breathing room
not an easy trade
16.30 is mid range on 1 min machine model and 16.48 is top range on 1 min
My stop on the 1/10 is at entry now
What the trade looks like on crude oil 1 minute chart time frame #oiltradealerts

oil trading room, daytraders, chat

Another screen shot of oil trading room and the guidance I’m providing to the daytraders as we go through trade #oiltradingroom

The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart.

The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart #oildaytrading

The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart #oildaytrading

Oil trading room discussion where I am explaining where I may close this part of the trade intraday.

“I may close 16.47 if we get it, 16.45 HOD so far, don’t like the tight trading here.
Closing 16.45 hold 0
chickened out don’t like the action
20 ticks on the 1/10 and 35 ticks on the 2nd 1/10 isn’t so bad for this time of night i suppose
The intra day crude oil trade as represented on the 1 minute chart #oildaytrading

this is double top on 60 min here
Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame #oildaytrading”

oil trading room, trading

Oil trading room discussion where I am explaining where I may close this part of the trade intraday #oiltradingroom

Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame.

Here's your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame #oildaytrading

Here’s your 60 min double top test on the 60 minute crude oil time frame #oildaytrading

Oil trading room discussion explaining the technical levels to watch on a daytrading basis.

“Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through, if retail goes with them that will happen #oiltradealerts

if that happens that will be volatile there
I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart, doesn’t look like I will get it though #oiltradealerts”

oil trading room, discussion, technical

Oil trading room discussion explaining the technical levels to watch on a daytrading basis #oiltradingroom

Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through.

Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through #oiltradealerts

Machines will want that next where two or more trend lines meet price target at 17.41 for a blow through #oiltradealerts

Another screen image of the crude oil trading room explaining machine order flow buying oil intraday.

“Jeremy is reporting micro programs buying all opportunities at weekness all the way through intra day so far #oilttrading

problem is timing intra day, they only have so much time to move this
I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.”

crude oil, trading room, discussion

Another screen image of the crude oil trading room explaining machine order flow buying oil intraday #crudeoil #tradingroom

I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart.

I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart #oiltradealerts

I may re hit a long if price meets 200 MA at 1 min support per chart #oiltradealerts

I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.

I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.

I would say that by midnight Eastern it gets more difficult in their code to get where two TLs meet price on that 1 hour price target above.

okay, here it is, this is their push to force the squeeze intraday in to the price target in the time cycle peak.

okay, here it is, this is their push to force the squeeze intraday in to the price target in the time cycle peak #oildaytrading

okay, here it is, this is their push to force the squeeze intraday in to the price target in the time cycle peak #oildaytrading

You can see how they’re grinding away at each half range tier on the 1 minute oil trade time frame intraday.

You can see how they're grinding away at each half range tier on the 1 minute oil trade time frame intraday #oiltdaytrading

You can see how they’re grinding away at each half range tier on the 1 minute oil trade time frame intraday #oiltdaytrading

Air is thin up here, this is double top on 5 min machine model – see extension arrow.

Air is thin up here, this is double top on 5 min machine model - see extension arrow #oiltradealerts

Air is thin up here, this is double top on 5 min machine model – see extension arrow #oiltradealerts

So on the 5 min timeframe bulls have lost their edge but on hourly I think they still have 20 mins.

So on the 5 min timeframe bulls have lost their edge but on hourly I think they still have 20 mins #oildaytrading

So on the 5 min timeframe bulls have lost their edge but on hourly I think they still have 20 mins #oildaytrading

Here’s your 1 hour time frame view, looks like bulls still have some time, hard to be exact on larger timing.

Here's your 1 hour time frame view, looks like bulls still have some time, hard to be exact on larger timing #oiltrading

Here’s your 1 hour time frame view, looks like bulls still have some time, hard to be exact on larger timing #oiltrading

And on 1 minute yet another half range zone grind through supply for continuation.

And on 1 minute yet another half range zone grind through supply for continuation #oildaytrading

And on 1 minute yet another half range zone grind through supply for continuation #oildaytrading

Excuse me while I kiss the sky, yet another price target in the grid complete, AI power on display.

Excuse me while I kiss the sky, yet another price target in the grid complete, AI power on display #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO

Excuse me while I kiss the sky, yet another price target in the grid complete, AI power on display #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO

Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they’ll have to go alone.

Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they'll have to go alone #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO

Said climax brings time cycle intraday in to completion, if retail wants it to move now they’ll have to go alone #oildaytrading #OOTT $CL_F $USO

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow.

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts

Crude oil price target met on 1 hour time frame, should see our pull back now for final run tomorrow #oiltradealerts

Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out.

Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out #OOTT $CL_F $USO #machinetradingoil

Retail left naked in the time cycle and have no idea why the air just came out #OOTT $CL_F $USO #machinetradingoil

And on my personal Twitter feed (public facing) sometimes I’ll let the world know we’re trading to show folks how the oil trading room and alerts work.

Below is a link and if you open the link you will find the thread on Twitter, it was real-time also.

As with the charts, live trading room discussion and private Twitter alert feed above, I show only some highlights, there is much more guidance on all than you see here in this article.

“AI school in session

#OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO”

“So the game is find the time-frame and use the model they’re using, but it’s all done with machines making those decisions and computer scientists constantly updating code, its a massive war game of techies competing for dominance, that’s oil trade in today’s world #OOTT $CL_F

its a massive game of go on various time-frames with entities competing with various amounts of liquidity all competing for dominant positioning, the dominant teams determine the time frame in play through liquidity, they’re in control,”

“i know, i know, there are no crystal balls in the markets

none of that just happened

#OOTT $CL_F $USO”

And earlier in the day I was attempting to explain to the Fintwit world what is actually moving and controlling oil price day to day.

“Most conventional market thinkers say that you cannot predict the future

what they won’t tell you is there are a select few that do actually predict it with a very high degree of accuracy

but it takes time to confirm and verify

and this is how the mass con keeps you bound.”

“Predicting with a rate of accuracy and trading it are two totally different things

it’s obvious in a machine driven world, with machine instructions that predictability will increase

if you know the rule-set instructions where the majority of machine flow resides.”

I am hoping that with part 1 of this series and this part 2 article of exactly how we are daytrading this next leg in crude oil price from our oil trading room that you can see better how to day trade crude oil with success.

As I said in article 1 of this series:

My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Part One of this article here: What They Won’t Tell You – How We DayTrade Crude Oil Against The AI’s in the Markets, A Sneak Peak. #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI

Part Three of this article here: BOOOM! Price and Time Exactly as Predicted Days in Advance | Part 3 – How We Daytrade Crude Oil #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

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Article Topics; oil trading room, daytrading, crude, oil, strategies, oil trade alerts

 


An Insider’s Look at Daytrading Crude Oil – Against The Machines | Live Trade Alerts Guidance by our Lead Trader in Oil Trading Room

Tonight when I sat down to my trading desk I didn’t intend to trade crude oil, but I knew that our lead Computer Scientist Jeremy had been tracking some machine liquidity sweepers in oil futures and indices markets since earlier Tuesday April 28, 2020.

So I was ready for anything.

We’ve been watching the crude oil machine order flow in the markets for the last 12 hours or so – since the AI’s showed up in flow earlier on EPIC IDENT software.

The machine programs have been slowly taking hold of the intra-day oil trading structure more and more over the course of the day on each time frame from 15 second micro daytrading charting time-frame through to 1 minute, 5 minute and 60 minute time-frames that I will show you below.

Anyway, when I sat down for my daily market prep $STUDY session I realized the machines were firing long in to some price targets on the 60 minute oil chart time-frame structure. I knew that our software wouldn’t start trade executions yet (it needs a certain amount of machine order flow to support its bias and start triggering).

If you haven’t read the EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading White Paper yet you can read about the rule-set instructions it fires trades to here: White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading.

So I knew the machines in crude oil futures trade were / are firing long in to a price target for Thursday 1:00 PM based on the 1 hour oil charting time-frame (from that specific algorithmic model). So I took the trade before I finished my first coffee.

By the way, we trade when the machine flow is in the markets because it becomes unfair for the competitors, in other words, our win rate skyrockets because we have intelligence the average oil day-trader does not have (unless they are employing high-end machine intelligence).

Below is one example, I just closed out the day-trade in crude oil futures you will see here. 

I provide what I can (I can only show you so much) but what you will see below are the screen images from the oil trading room and oil trade alerts feed and algorithmic trading chart models that represent our machine trade for some of the time-frames. The guidance I provided the oil trading room and oil trade alert feed are included.

If you read this document carefully…

You will notice if you read this document carefully that I explained to the trading room what the machines would do in advance of it actually happening. On each time frame of trade we know what the decisions are algorithmically for the machine order flow.

I explained to the trading room what the machines would do in advance of it actually happening.

The charts below from the trade alerts and oil trading room are time stamped in the top left hand corner of the image .

I hope you enjoy the disclosure, here it is;

First the earlier trade set-up strategy commentary and guidance from the oil trading room earlier in the day discussing the upcoming time cycle in crude oil and machine order flow identified in markets.

Crude oil trading structure suggests decision for leg up or down prior to Thurs 1200 EST PM #oiltradingroom

Crude oil trading structure suggests decision for leg up or down prior to Thurs 1200 EST PM #oiltradingroom

Crude oil trading structure suggests decision for leg up or down prior to Thurs 1200 EST PM #oiltradingroom

Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified.

JeremyToday at 10:19 AM
That was the strongest progressive order flow in the recent lows we have seen yet, likely machine programs in that rally. Time cycle for Thur 12:00 PM EST looks like the inflection (sometime prior). EPIC V3.1.1 was very close to firing, next rally we would expect programs to start.

Curt MelonopolyToday at 10:19 AM
Nice, thanks J

JeremyToday at 11:53 AM
Those SPY blocks from this morning you may see on social media people talking about, the machine programs coincide on CL progressive blocks. Same entity(s) likely.

Curt MelonopolyToday at 11:55 AM
thanks J

And one of my best oil trade alerts this week was here;

luisitoToday at 1:45 PM
Looking for a possible bounce from 10.00 area to 13.00s, trading 11.24 and dropping. FX USOIL WTI
@Curt Melonopoly amazing call

Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:45 PM
well thanks @luisito i’ll take what i can lol
we’re just watching this order flow now in to settlement because there were some sweepers in earlier today CL and SPy

luisitoToday at 1:47 PM
Curt: is a 400 ticks call. 100 down, 300 up.

Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified #oiltradingroom

Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified #oiltradingroom

Oil trading room commentary, discussion about oil strategy call that worked and order flow identified #oiltradingroom

Curt MelonopolyToday at 1:48 PM
ha ya, hopefully the next is better, if we get follow through above the earlier blocks we should see 19.46
have to see if the sweeper push it

Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:32 PM

As expected: Moderate above VWAP in to settlement, reflects market action & order flow, API and EIA then likely reversal to 19.40s, we’ll watch and see if the sweepers return. Should see EPIC (I know I’ve said it last week but structure needs to be there and it seems were there)

Very technical move in crude oil, post EIA should provide exceptional trading opportunity, structure returning fast.

Very technical move in crude oil, post EIA should provide exceptional trading opportunity, structure returning fast.

Very technical move in crude oil, post EIA should provide exceptional trading opportunity, structure returning fast.

If the machine bulls get their way, 19.47 Thursday 100 PM is the mark, 600 ticks, trading 13.56, 1 hr firing clean #oiltradealerts

If the machine bulls get their way, 19.47 Thursday 100 PM is the mark, 600 ticks, trading 13.56, 1 hr firing clean #oiltradealerts

If the machine bulls get their way, 19.47 Thursday 100 PM is the mark, 600 ticks, trading 13.56, 1 hr firing clean #oiltradealerts

Oil Trading Room alerting first trade entry – I’m going to go with this tight stops 1-10 13.59 long. #oiltradingroom

I’m going to go with this tight stops 1/10 13.59 long. Likely fails but I’m going to try and build above 13.56. So I’ll close under go above around that pivot. Quoting FX USOI WTI traded on CL.

Oil Trading Room alerting first trade entry - I'm going to go with this tight stops 1-10 13.59 long. #oiltradingroom

Oil Trading Room alerting first trade entry – I’m going to go with this tight stops 1-10 13.59 long. #oiltradingroom

The one minute support (pivot) I am speaking about (white arrow), but they have to clear 1 hour resistance on previous chart. #oiltradealerts

The one minute support (pivot) I am speaking about (white arrow), but they have to clear 1 hour resistance on previous chart. #oiltradealerts

The one minute support (pivot) I am speaking about (white arrow), but they have to clear 1 hour resistance on previous chart. #oiltradealerts

Hoping my long position sees a bit of a squeeze in oil futures here in to 1030 PM EST time cycle peak on 5 min timeframe #oiltradealerts

Hoping my long position sees a bit of a squeeze in oil futures here in to 1030 PM EST time cycle peak on 5 min timeframe #oiltradealerts

Hoping my long position sees a bit of a squeeze in oil futures here in to 1030 PM EST time cycle peak on 5 min timeframe #oiltradealerts

I marked the price targets for intra day machine route bias to the 19.47 price target Thursday. See chart. #oiltradealerts

I marked the price targets for intra day machine route bias to the 19.47 price target Thursday. See chart. #oiltradealerts

I marked the price targets for intra day machine route bias to the 19.47 price target Thursday. See chart. #oiltradealerts

Screen capture of actual oil trade alert from private member feed – 14.19 is the next resistance trading… #oiltradealerts

14.19 is the next resistance trading 14.05 so i may close 14.18 area and see if we pull back and then go again.

Screen capture of actual oil trade alert from private member feed - 14.19 is the next resistance trading... #oiltradealerts

Screen capture of actual oil trade alert from private member feed – 14.19 is the next resistance trading… #oiltradealerts

Bulls are taking some profit at 14.04 recent double top area of price, so we’ll see how this shapes up or down #oiltradealerts

Bulls are taking some profit at 14.04 recent double top area of price, so we'll see how this shapes up or down #oiltradealerts

Bulls are taking some profit at 14.04 recent double top area of price, so we’ll see how this shapes up or down #oiltradealerts

Based on the first symmetrical extension on the 1 min your new pivot is approx 13.74, so if bulls are firing on 1 min this should hold.

Based on the first symmetrical extension on the 1 min your new pivot is approx 13.74, so if bulls are firing on 1 min this should hold.

Based on the first symmetrical extension on the 1 min your new pivot is approx 13.74, so if bulls are firing on 1 min this should hold.

If your 1 min symmetrical pivot support doesn’t hold then look to 5 min 20 MA for bulls to go or not in to 1030 timing #oiltradealerts

If your 1 min symmetrical pivvot support doesn't hold then look to 5 min 20 MA for bulls to go or not in to 1030 timing #oiltradealerts

If your 1 min symmetrical pivvot support doesn’t hold then look to 5 min 20 MA for bulls to go or not in to 1030 timing #oiltradealerts

Screen capture image of oil trading alert private feed where I close the oil trade for a win and explain decisions #oiltradingalert

Screen capture image of oil trading alert private feed where I close the oil trade for a win and explain decisions #oiltradingalert

Screen capture image of oil trading alert private feed where I close the oil trade for a win and explain decisions #oiltradingalert

Screen shot image captured of actual oil trading room discussion from lead trader and guidance for trade plan #oiltraderoom

I am going to let them go from here without me and on a pull back (likely after time cycle peak) then I will re-enter long for the next leg up.

I got a 58 point move there on that time cycle, symmetrical set-up s I’m happy with that considering time of day.

I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly.

Screen shot image captured of actual oil trading room discussion from lead trader and guidance for trade plan #oiltraderoom

Screen shot image captured of actual oil trading room discussion from lead trader and guidance for trade plan #oiltraderoom

I got my bullish extension on 1 min symmetrical move as planned, lets see if I get a pull back, still time n to 1030 time cycle for more #oiltradealerts

I got my bullish extension on 1 min symmetrical move as planned, lets see if I get a pull back, still time n to 1030 time cycle for more #oiltradealerts

I got my bullish extension on 1 min symmetrical move as planned, lets see if I get a pull back, still time n to 1030 time cycle for more #oiltradealerts

You can see how the squeeze is occurring in crude oil in to the time cycle at 1030 PM as it did at 730 PM #oiltradealerts

You can see how the squeeze is occurring in crude oil in to the time cycle at 1030 PM as it did at 730 PM #oiltradealerts

You can see how the squeeze is occurring in crude oil in to the time cycle at 1030 PM as it did at 730 PM #oiltradealerts

I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly. #oiltradealerts

I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don't make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly. #oiltradealerts

I may have made the right decision, if 13.94 fails then likely they don’t make the resistance break 14.19 on crude oil hourly. #oiltradealerts

Over 14.19 in crude oil trade on FX USOIL WTI 14.56 then 14.80 are your next intraday resistance #oiltrading #daytrading

Over 14.19 in crude oil trade on FX USOIL WTI 14.56 then 14.80 are your next intraday resistance #oiltrading #daytrading

Over 14.19 in crude oil trade on FX USOIL WTI 14.56 then 14.80 are your next intraday resistance #oiltrading #daytrading

You can see how bulls in oil trade are firing off the trajectory arrow toward the price targets I’m alerting, when it fails watch out #oiltradealerts

You can see how bulls in oil trade are firing off the trajectory arrow toward the price targets I'm alerting, when it fails watch out #oiltradealerts

You can see how bulls in oil trade are firing off the trajectory arrow toward the price targets I’m alerting, when it fails watch out #oiltradealerts

Bulls only have 5 prime minutes left (10 total) and trajectory for 14.56 price target comes in at 1057PM so they need a squeeze #oiltradealerts

Bulls only have 5 prime minutes left (10 total) and trajectory for 14.56 price target comes in at 1057PM so they need a squeeze #oiltradealerts

Bulls only have 5 prime minutes left (10 total) and trajectory for 14.56 price target comes in at 1057PM so they need a squeeze #oiltradealerts

They have 4 minutes left to 5 min candle expiry, at 1035 if price target not hit the advantage goes to bears short term #oildaytrading

They have 4 minutes left to 5 min candle expiry, at 1035 if price target not hit the advantage goes to bears short term #oildaytrading

They have 4 minutes left to 5 min candle expiry, at 1035 if price target not hit the advantage goes to bears short term #oildaytrading

At 103230 they are firing off half time on 5 min candle decision half range pivot support, if it fails they likely fail here #oiltradealerts

At 103230 they are firing off half time on 5 min candle decision half range pivot support, if it fails they likely fail here #oiltradealerts

At 103230 they are firing off half time on 5 min candle decision half range pivot support, if it fails they likely fail here #oiltradealerts

At turn of 1035 PM 5 min candle first signs of break down are appearing #machinetradingoil

At turn of 1035 PM 5 min candle first signs of break down are appearing #machinetradingoil

At turn of 1035 PM 5 min candle first signs of break down are appearing #machinetradingoil

If the break down continues, the first real buy trigger for the bulls again is 200MA on 1 min likely at 1100PM #daytradingcrudeoil

If the break down continues, the first real buy trigger for the bulls again is 200MA on 1 min likely at 1100PM #daytradingcrudeoil

If the break down continues, the first real buy trigger for the bulls again is 200MA on 1 min likely at 1100PM #daytradingcrudeoil

Here’s your 200 MA price hit on the crude oil 1 minute time frame, just below is vwap and 1 min range support #oildaytrading

Here's your 200 MA price hit on the crude oil 1 minute time frame, just below is vwap and 1 min range support #oildaytrading

Here’s your 200 MA price hit on the crude oil 1 minute time frame, just below is vwap and 1 min range support #oildaytrading

And now the pinch between the 20 MA to upside of price and 200 MA support lower than price for a decision #oiltrading #technicalanalyis

And now the pinch between the 20 MA to upside of price and 200 MA support lower than price for a decision #oiltrading #technicalanalyis

And now the pinch between the 20 MA to upside of price and 200 MA support lower than price for a decision #oiltrading #technicalanalyis

I am sure you can see from the trade action in the oil futures markets how it is best to have machine trade intelligence on your side if you are going to trade crude oil.

My goal is to build the best oil trading room and alerts service in the world for traders, it is a large task, but the hardest part of our mission is done, we can trade with the best machines in the world now. The rest should be easier.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Part 2 of this article here: “Excuse Me, While I Kiss The Sky”. Part 2 Insider’s Look at How We Daytrade Crude Oil (w/ real-time alert screen shots from oil trading room).

Part 3 of this article here: BOOOM! Price and Time Exactly as Predicted Days in Advance | Part 3 – How We Daytrade Crude Oil #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

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Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Article Topics; oil, daytrading, oil trade alerts, oil trading room, crude oil, futures, trade, strategy


IMPORTANT: Trading Team Note

This is likely one of the more important notes you will ever receive from me, the upcoming time-cycles are going to be historically important, the biggest in history past, present and future.

RE:  More Intra-Day Trading Near (Time Cycle Inflections)

Applies to: Live Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Swing Trade Alerts. Stocks, SP500, $SPY, OIL, $CL_F, $USO, GOLD, $GLD, $GC_F, SILVER, $SLV, BITCOIN, $BTC, Volatility, $VIX, US Dollar, $DXY

Good evening team,

The recent time cycle that peaked last week was spot on, we nailed the run up (many plays in equities were 2-6x hits) and then the down (OVX 20s to 340s, VIX we nailed, shorting MasterCard, Nike and WYNN with size and many more) and then the recent bounce has been good to us and we sold the day before and early morning of the pull back in Wednesday trade.

The time cycles we follow were spot on and have been now for near 5 years – this is a considerable advantage in our overall bias with trade positioning and themes (more on this in another note).

For those that are not aware, our swing trading platform easily returns triple digits per year and this year we expect 4 digit returns+ and the win rate is high – easily 80%+ sometimes better. You are welcome to inspect our alert feed anytime to confirm for yourself.

Why do I point this out?

Because we are now entering another turn (we’re in the turn now). Time cycle inflections are important.

This particular time cycle inflection from the first week of April 2020 (peak) to the last week of August 2020 peak is going to be aggressive and we expect the next after that in to the US election to be even more so.

In fact, we expect the volatility or better described as range of markets to increase for at least the next 4 time cycles and even likely in to mid 2022 and possibly in to 2025.

We have been spot on so far with our forecasts and don’t expect different anytime soon, it is simply math and natural order.

So why am I sending this notice to our trading team?

In this inflection (turn) in to and running to the last week of August it is important we are really on top of the inflections in stocks (equities), oil trading and commodities, volatility, indices and the Dollar.

We make the majority of our profit in inflections. There are periods we are quiet and then boom it’s time to go, it is in the “GO” where the money is made.

The next “GO” should be at latest this time next week, by then we should start to see inflections in the markets to really size in to themes of trade. If you study our swing trading alert feed you will see the quiet times and then BOOM it’s GO TIME and then quiet and so on.

In this particular turn and in the other time cycle inflections over the next few years I will be doing a lot more intra day and intra week swing trading (really it is better described as inflection theme trading).

More specifically, I will be more active, higher frequency, working the edges of the ranges to get sizing in to the inflection trades. This means a very active trading room and the alert feeds too of course. Click here for oil trade alerts and here for swing trade alerts.

We have a new internet line being run sometime between now and then that will allow for considerably better stability for the machine trading and the simple live voice broadcasting in the room, until then, if you cannot hear something because of internet or click meeting server issues (COVID life internet issues with everyone working from home) let me know, email me and I’ll send you a note on the set-up.

Between now and then (early to mid next week) I will be in deep $STUDY preparing all of our set-ups. We have 200 stocks (equities) modeled on our trading platform that in large part need to be updated and then also the models for SPY, OIL, GOLD, SILVER, DXY, VIX and Bitcoin. The chart models take a lot of work to update, so if you don’t hear from me that is why haha.

If there are any trade set-ups you want me to review be sure to send them on email.

If you are not a member of the trading room because of the cost send me a note (I get it, it’s not cheap, the alerts are much more affordable I know) but I will find a way to get you a long term subscription and that brings the monthly cost way way down and reasonable for anyone to access (if you are wanting to attend the trading room, it works out to 3,000.00 year or about 9.00 a day with the 50% discount and there are ways to finance that).

If nothing else, get in to those Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY sessions, they’re cheap, literally the cost of coffee, 10 session blocks at 100.00 at 4 hours a session = 40 hours of intense trade set-up study for 100.00 and 50% less for current members of Compound Trading Group. Cheap. Non member price 100.00. Current member price 50.00 (use code “webinar50”). If you can’t attend we send a video report out to everyone anyway.

Yes, I am pushing you, for good reason.

I intentionally brought the swing $STUDY session pricing down to next to zero so everyone has an opportunity in these time cycles. There are no excuses. I cannot stress enough how much your future self will thank you for being in it to win it between now and the global financial reset coming.

Oh and we’re running another trader’s conference (10 in person, 20 online) as soon as the borders open again and everyone can fly – current clients get first pick on the 10 seats in person (see tweet thread and video).

And if there’s anything else I can assist with please do not hesitate to reach out because the next few time cycles will be life changing for traders that are ready for them. I mean that in a very literal way. Our returns could easily spike to 5 digit returns, I’m not exaggerating – these are HUGE time cycle coming. 

Other items of note are that 1. our crude oil machine trading is introducing CFD’s in the next few weeks, so this is huge because then smaller accounts will be able to increase the win rate considerably (more on this in a near term article) and 2. yes I am going to give in and do some mainstream articles, they’ve been asking for years and more recently more (our time cycle work has them wondering haha) and I think some people need to know about the opportunity right in front of them – I do have a sense of obligation to that (see tweet thread).

Peace and best,

Curt 

Reminder to existing clients! If you are on Whatsapp and want to have the fastest direct access to my trading desk send your whatsapp number to compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and I’ll connect to you there also.

Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):

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Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

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EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading Software Updates, A Follow-Up to Last Week’s Note on February 2nd.

RE: Software Drawdown Protocols vs Expected Returns and Oil Trade Alerts.

Good day traders,

Last weeks note (if you have not read it) can be found here;

EPIC v3 Crude Oil Code Updates: Drawdown & Short Selling Protocols $CL_F $USO #machinetrading

Since the Feb 2 note I have had some questions from our clients that I suspect others have also, so I a summarizing responses from those questions below.

Our Primary Objective

The goal in our development is now limiting draw-downs, we know the software works and that is not at issue, at issue is the size of potential draw-down.

Our primary objective is to find the range of “throttle” in the software that provides a consistent return with the least volatility in ROI.

Draw-down Protocol “Events”

The software is designed to trade on historical structures, trade set-ups, order flow and more – find details in the most recent white paper update can be found here.

Specifically to draw-down protocols, in my last note I described the change in code to be throttled 50% (limiting potential downside to 50% of what is described in the white paper). I also explained that if required we would throttle it again another 50% of its most recent setting.

Last week crude oil seemed to be basing from a technical perspective and the software (considering the chop) did well, however, we were not comfortable with the potential draw-down risk in the “event” driven chop.

At issue specifically are market “events”, such as with the recent virus event out of China. Event periods will potentially cause draw-downs, our objective is to avoid this volatility.

As of today we have done that – throttled the draw-down protocol again.

The reason is simple, our objective now is to limit unnecessary draw-down percentages to the point that we can allow the software to run without concern to draw-downs even if that limits potential returns. For now this is the case and as explained previously if we open the throttle at all we will advise our clients well in advance. 

In practical terms this means that the software size held is limited intra-day when in draw-down and the range is limited. The range is not changed from previous, being one full “quad” and/or “channel” range on the EPIC Algorithm Model but the size held is limited to near 1/10 size. The size can very from approximately 1/10 to 3/10 size but the software will “flash” in and out any adds with near zero range stops executing at each key support in a draw-down.

Oil Trade Alerts

This will at times cause the oil trade alerts feed to be very active but yet at times will be very silent as the software will only execute the highest probability trades also.

This represents the tightest throttle possible in our code.

Expected Returns vs. Draw-Down Risk

Through development we have had plateaus of code structure ranging from 20% – 150% ROI expectation and we even looked toward 300% being possible.

However, there is a volatility to potential draw-down that comes with higher expectation of ROI. This has to be balanced with account size and risk tolerance.

Our objective is to code software that has limited draw-down with highest ROI on specifically 10 contract size accounts. As explained previously, 30 contract and higher accounts this is much different. 

At the current throttle setting our estimation of returns is somewhere between 40 – 80% per year (likely closer to 40%) with very littler risk to the down-side as we have run the software in this throttle range prior for some time and this is the ROI expectation. The variance in ROI expectation (40%- 80%) is in consideration of market conditions and not how we expect the software to run.

After the software has run for a considerable time at this level of “throttle” we will look at releasing the “throttle”, but this will be only considered after some time and again I emphasize that our clients will be notified well in advance.

Being as transparent as I can, the reason for this is motivated by the fact that we have been in development for near 4 years and there is a point where returns need to be the norm and not volatility in development. We need to run a low risk environment for some time now as development has been costly. When we have recouped development costs and put some profit back in to the project we can then look at further development and associated risk. 

Our next white paper update will reflect the content of these updates notes.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

 

Article topics; crude, oil, trading, machine trading, algorithm


The Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Is Complete.

The information below (in advance of the official white paper) provides a summary of the development process to date, the rule-set (strategies) the code executes oil trades to, what the oil trade alerts will look like on your feed, returns expected on accounts traded and what we have planned in future.

June 13, 2019

As noted above, we have now completed the main structure of the coding for our crude oil trading.

We have previously messaged that we were either close or right at being complete only to find ourselves back down another rabbit hole. This time is actually different, we are done the primary architecture coding, we only have updates (tweaks) remaining. We expect the bulk of that to last at most ninety days.

The software includes eighteen structured algorithmic models (representing time frames from 1 minute charting to weekly), specific high probable trade set-ups, trade sequences within set-ups, order flow analysis, trend (channel) structures on each time-frame and range structures on each time-frame.

The trends (channels) and range trade structures are given the most weight within the decision process of the rule-set. The larger the structure (time-frame) the more weight for sizing and stop loss range. The models, set-ups. sequences and order flow have much less weight in the code.

This (the weights) described above will manifest in trade activity in such a way that trade will become more active and in greater size with the larger the structure. For example, the trending channel from late December 2018 to recent would be a considerable structure within the code and as such the code would size in to that channel at the support and resistance widths of range.

The white paper that we will publish soon will detail the rule-set in such a way that our clients will be able to follow along with the machine trade and understand the protocol that it is executing. This is the first stage for the architecture needed for our trader digital dash board we intend to develop soon.

As the days and weeks go on the software will fire more regularly and will begin to size considerably more than right now because it is coded to weigh decisions within trade trends, structures etc. As the trade set-ups develop the code will fire on them. Obviously the largest structures will be at the end of this start up process. The last few days it has been firing on 1 min, 5, 15 and 30 minute structures.

At first we expect the returns to be approximately .5% per day (if averaged over 30 trading days) increasing to well over 1% per day at most 90 trading days in to the launch. We have tested the code in advance and are confident with this. Depending on our success with “tweaks” the returns could escalate to near 3% per day, we are however more conservative and expect 1%-1.5%.

We are significantly more confident with this version of code simply because we have been down the rabbit hole on every time frame, in every structure, every set up, every order flow sequence on all time cycles competing with the best machines in the world.

We have been there, we went to battle in every arena, we know where we can win and where we cannot. The final version of code will only fire in arenas that we expect 80% + win rate. The larger the structure the larger the return as the software fires through the sequence with the structure.

We tested code on every time frame, in every algorithmic model, every order flow structure and so on and so on. We left no stone unturned.

There are areas of trade in the oil markets (smallest time frames) that are so competitive it would dazzle your mind. The AI’s that are firing in the smallest of time frames are doing so in a way that no trader can imagine. Every time we completed a sequence of trade in the most competitive areas (time-frames) we were schooled in the most advanced AI machine trade the world has to offer. It is manifested in a way no trader would ever expect. Here’s a hint, imagine getting beat every time, in a new way every time and every new way you got beat was a structured, logical, mathematically sound way and the ways seem endless.

Our final crude oil trade code is well outside those areas of competition.

The alerts on the Twitter client feed, in the oil trading room and on the private Discord server will continue to have “M” in the alert if it is a machine driven trade and if I (Curt) am trading I will also identify the alert detail as such. As the days go on the protocol (trade set up) detail will get more and more detailed so that our clients can follow along with clarity.

See also:

Press: SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

What’s next?

The next ninety days is for tweaking the code – refining the execution of sequences within structures of trade.

Then near term we will be looking at the trader’s digital platform and API’s etc and then….

AND THEN…. YES, WE HAVE DECIDED to BUILD SOFTWARE FOR BITCOIN MACHINE TRADE. 

This will obviously lead our developers in to other crypto-currencies also.

Any questions send me an email compoundtradigofficial@gmail.com.

Thanks

Curt

Oil Trading Academy:

If you would like to learn more about how to trade oil, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

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Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: AI, machine trading, trade, software, crude, oil, BTC, Bitcoin, Oil Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Strategy

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