The Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Is Complete.
The information below (in advance of the official white paper) provides a summary of the development process to date, the rule-set (strategies) the code executes oil trades to, what the oil trade alerts will look like on your feed, returns expected on accounts traded and what we have planned in future.
June 13, 2019
As noted above, we have now completed the main structure of the coding for our crude oil trading.
We have previously messaged that we were either close or right at being complete only to find ourselves back down another rabbit hole. This time is actually different, we are done the primary architecture coding, we only have updates (tweaks) remaining. We expect the bulk of that to last at most ninety days.
The software includes eighteen structured algorithmic models (representing time frames from 1 minute charting to weekly), specific high probable trade set-ups, trade sequences within set-ups, order flow analysis, trend (channel) structures on each time-frame and range structures on each time-frame.
The trends (channels) and range trade structures are given the most weight within the decision process of the rule-set. The larger the structure (time-frame) the more weight for sizing and stop loss range. The models, set-ups. sequences and order flow have much less weight in the code.
This (the weights) described above will manifest in trade activity in such a way that trade will become more active and in greater size with the larger the structure. For example, the trending channel from late December 2018 to recent would be a considerable structure within the code and as such the code would size in to that channel at the support and resistance widths of range.
The white paper that we will publish soon will detail the rule-set in such a way that our clients will be able to follow along with the machine trade and understand the protocol that it is executing. This is the first stage for the architecture needed for our trader digital dash board we intend to develop soon.
As the days and weeks go on the software will fire more regularly and will begin to size considerably more than right now because it is coded to weigh decisions within trade trends, structures etc. As the trade set-ups develop the code will fire on them. Obviously the largest structures will be at the end of this start up process. The last few days it has been firing on 1 min, 5, 15 and 30 minute structures.
At first we expect the returns to be approximately .5% per day (if averaged over 30 trading days) increasing to well over 1% per day at most 90 trading days in to the launch. We have tested the code in advance and are confident with this. Depending on our success with “tweaks” the returns could escalate to near 3% per day, we are however more conservative and expect 1%-1.5%.
We are significantly more confident with this version of code simply because we have been down the rabbit hole on every time frame, in every structure, every set up, every order flow sequence on all time cycles competing with the best machines in the world.
We have been there, we went to battle in every arena, we know where we can win and where we cannot. The final version of code will only fire in arenas that we expect 80% + win rate. The larger the structure the larger the return as the software fires through the sequence with the structure.
We tested code on every time frame, in every algorithmic model, every order flow structure and so on and so on. We left no stone unturned.
There are areas of trade in the oil markets (smallest time frames) that are so competitive it would dazzle your mind. The AI’s that are firing in the smallest of time frames are doing so in a way that no trader can imagine. Every time we completed a sequence of trade in the most competitive areas (time-frames) we were schooled in the most advanced AI machine trade the world has to offer. It is manifested in a way no trader would ever expect. Here’s a hint, imagine getting beat every time, in a new way every time and every new way you got beat was a structured, logical, mathematically sound way and the ways seem endless.
Our final crude oil trade code is well outside those areas of competition.
The alerts on the Twitter client feed, in the oil trading room and on the private Discord server will continue to have “M” in the alert if it is a machine driven trade and if I (Curt) am trading I will also identify the alert detail as such. As the days go on the protocol (trade set up) detail will get more and more detailed so that our clients can follow along with clarity.
The next ninety days is for tweaking the code – refining the execution of sequences within structures of trade.
Then near term we will be looking at the trader’s digital platform and API’s etc and then….
AND THEN…. YES, WE HAVE DECIDED to BUILD SOFTWARE FOR BITCOIN MACHINE TRADE.
This will obviously lead our developers in to other crypto-currencies also.
Any questions send me an email compoundtradigofficial@gmail.com.
Thanks
Curt
Oil Trading Academy:
If you would like to learn more about how to trade oil, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Below You Will Find Proprietary Oil Trading Signals Not Available Elsewhere.
When Crude Oil Starts Selling Off Intra-Day Volatility Increases Fast. Knowing Where and Having the Signals for Support and Resistance On The One Minute Chart Will Help Your Trading Strategy.
If you day-trade crude oil futures contracts (or if you are learning how to day trade crude oil) the chart models and signals below will help you understand the structure of trade on intra-day charting (like using a GPS or a map).
The trade signals provided below will increase your trading win rate and ROI on each trade (as you learn to trade the set-ups or strategies).
We can also help you with confirming that the trend is actually bearish (selling in downtrend) and when price is likely to reverse intra-day and oil trade is likely to turn bullish.
This is part one of a two part post (part one is public and part two is premium member only).
How Oil Sells Off Intra-day on Stairs to Support Floors Down.
The structure of oil sell-offs is not the same as when oil trades up. When crude oil trade is bearish intra-day you will find that it has specific areas of support / floors (this is also true when price is bullish but the structure or steps of trade are different).
When oil is trading down the price will often quickly drop to the next support and will then hang around for sometime and possibly test resistance areas for a possible reversal. When the reversal doesn’t happen or work then price drops quickly to the next floor of support.
The price of oil drops quickly to support and then the bulls will try and trade price back up (along with a certain amount of the shorts covering short positions) for a snap back or price reversal trade. At each support you will find this process occurring.
The more support there is on the charting (on various chart time-frames) the more likely a snap-back trade will occur (price reverses intra-day). This is why we have algorithmic models and conventional charting for all time frames that we use in the oil trading room, in member reporting and coded in to our machine trading software.
The goal is to know where each support and resistance point is on the charting so that you can develop a trading strategy for intra day moves in oil price.
When you know where the support and resistance is you can then day trade the price of oil with more perspective or clarity.
Before you can learn how to trade a financial instrument (such as crude oil futures contracts) it is important to know the structure of the instrument (as it applies to the charting on various time-frames).
Once you know the structure (the playing field or like I refer to it as a GPS or map) then you need to learn how to trade that specific structure (this is where your personal trading style and strategies come in to play).
Knowing where support and resistance is on the charting allows you to set stops properly, it also helps you with sizing the number of contracts you are trading (trimming and adding to your trade size) and more.
There are two reasons we know the chart structure in the trade of oil (every financial instrument has a structure – like your DNA or the rings on a tree).
One reason is that we construct algorithmic charting models and the other is that we are coding for machine trade of oil. Both reasons require us to back test our charting. It isn’t enough to chart conventional trend-lines (or whatever it is you are charting) and it isn’t enough to design an algorithmic chart model – the assumptions for consideration in trade, such as support and resistances areas, need to be back tested so that you have a quantifiable high probability of success.
You need to know that your assumptions provide highly probable set-ups (trade signals) to provide you a trading edge.
When we chart for the purpose of trading signals we first start with conventional charting (on all time frames) and then move to charting algorithmic models of highly probable areas of support and resistance of trade (visual representation of important structure points of the charting) and then we move to coding what we know to be most probable areas of support and resistance in trade. I should note for completeness that our models provide much more than support and resistance, there are other important trade signals such as time cycles, the structure of trade itself on various time-frames and much more.
We use the charting for crude oil on thirteen different time-frames (1 minute charting through to monthly charting), we chart it on conventional charts, work with algorithmic modelling and back test all the various indicators for up to 60 months (such as moving averages, VWAP, MACD, stochastic RSI and more).
When we back test our assumptions we are calculating the probability of that structure in trade re-occurring. When we find a structure with high probability of repeating then we model that structure and code it to our machine trade software.
In this specific area of day-trading (intra-day sell-offs and reversals) we can help you with what structure is in play on the one minute chart as oil sells off and what to watch for so that you know the sell-off is likely done and the price trend is about to change and turn bullish for price reversal.
Support And Resistance On The One Minute Oil Chart in Sell-Offs.
Specific to crude oil, sell-off support and resistance on the charting is VERY PREDICTABLE. You will find that the areas of support are very precise and price will step down in a very structured way on the chart – this is a near exact science.
Why is the trade of oil so precise on the one minute chart when oil sells off? The answer is very likely because the trade of oil is now mostly done by software programmed / coded for machine trade and this machine trade liquidity has caused very specific structures of trade to manifest.
Lets Look at Some Recent Crude Oil Trade From our Oil Trading Room.
Below is a screen shot from our oil trade chat room on Discord (which is not the same as the live broadcast oil trading room) of a comment and a chart of intra day trade in crude oil (this was posted at 1:03 PM last Thursday).
My comment in the trading room reads “perfect structured sell down out of support in to next buy trigger”. What this means is that crude oil sold off intra day, it lost its area of support (the yellow diagonal trend line on the one minute chart model) and then dropped perfectly to the next support decision line on the chart (yellow line again) and then price bounced to test resistance.
By the way, the crude oil trade alerts are both what you see below (the Discord private server screen images below) and alerted on a private member Twitter feed.
This structure (you see below) occurred over and over again daily this week during sell-offs. This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.
This is by far one of the most predictable signals available for day-trading crude oil you will find. It has one of the highest probabilities of success in oil trade model charting.
The key to success however is learning what the structure is (having the model at your disposal for when you trade) so that you can size your trades properly and set stop orders properly etc – learning how to use the signals for your strategy and knowing when trade is likely to stop selling off so that you can then begin planning for a trend reversal.
This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.
Crude oil trading chat room screen capture of day trade in oil selling off using support. #oil #tradingroom #daytrading
And then in the screen shot below from the oil trading room you will see on the next chart posted to the room that oil started to bounce (or trade up) from the support (or buy trigger signal) on the chart. I then asked our software developer Jeremy to note that the software did not trigger a long trade for our coding updates to be done later that night.
Look close at his answer / comment to my request, he knew why the software did not signal a trigger for a long trade (and also why there was no trade alert as such on our member feed to buy)… it was because the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.
the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.
Screen shot of oil trading room, price of oil trying to reverse, day trading signals for our strategy and discussion between traders.
And sure enough, if you look at the next image below you see that they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure (next yellow line down representing next support in a sell off). Again, it was precise trade action.
they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure
Oil short sell signal for daytrading strategy on the algorithmic chart model for day traders.
Then you will notice that I alerted the oil trading room (at 1:12 PM Thursday) that the bulls are starting to buy at each support area of the one minute chart (in other words, be aware that a price reversal in intra-day trade could occur soon).
There were buy programs and/or day-traders starting to buy at supports that are not support areas for a continued sell-off, they are areas of support for either indecision (or a decision is needed) or support for trading bullish (or in an uptrend).
This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal). These lines are at the white diagonal (signals a decision area of charting) and the blue diagonal (signals bullish support) on the chart model.
Oil was trading at 57.44 on FX USOIL WTI at the time.
This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal).
Screen capture of oil trading room alert signalling for daytraders to watch for trend reversal in day trade action.
And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal. I was explaining to our day traders in the room at the time (this screen shot is taken on the weekend so you don’t see who was in the oil trade room at the time in the image) what to watch for in intra-day trade action for a confirmation of trend reversal. In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.
In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.
And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal.
And then in this image (screen shot from oil trading room) you see that trade hit the price target and got through resistance confirming more that the low of day in trade had been put in and that we were now alerting bias to uptrend trading signals going forward for oil trade on the day.
Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model – this is machine trade. Knowing what the large liquidity in machine trade is doing is key now when day trading crude oil. This is very important.
Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model.
Image (screen shot oil trading room) oil trade hit price target through resistance confirms uptrend trading signals
Looking at the chart below you can see very clearly how precise the day trading signals are on the daytrading algorithmic crude oil model.
The green arrows show three shorting opportunities from yellow diagonal support / resistance to the next yellow diagonal support / resistance (like stairs stepping trade down in the model).
You will notice that the last stair down that trade over shot the yellow line a bit, this is a signal that an intra-day bottom is being put in.
You can also notice (from the charts shown above) that as buying came in at the decision support / resistance lines (white diagonal lines on chart model) and at the blue decision diagonal support / resistance lines that I alerted a possible trend reversal in trade.
Then you will notice (see chart below) that trade got through the yellow resistance after bouncing (yellow arrow on chart) – this is a bullish intra-day signal that a reversal is likely near.
And then next in trade you will see that trade bounced at the blue diagonal trend-line (blue arrow) when it pulled back from resistance, a bounce at a blue line is further confirmation that trade is now bullish intra-day. The blue lines are used as support and resistance in an intra-day uptrend.
And then the subsequent blue arrows on the chart show how trade breached in to the next bullish area, then pulled back and used the blue line as support (after confirming up after hitting a decision white line) for a bounce and then so on through the bullish trade reversal in the daytrading sequence.
Blue is for trading in uptrend, yellow is trading a sell off, white is a reference point for a decision to go up or down in trend on the model.
The trend-lines on this algorithm model are not conventional. The trend-lines are algorithmic calculations and therefore proprietary and not available elsewhere.
How powerful is that for an oil daytrader?
Knowing exactly where the support and resistance is during a sell-off and knowing with high probability where the turn is likely to happen for reversal in trade and then knowing exactly where to trade the uptrend.
Algorithmic chart model for shorting oil, trading a reversal in oil and decision areas of daytrading signals.
Below is the video explanation that accompanies this post (live oil trading room footage included).
In part two (the premium member post) we will take a deeper look at strategies for trading the one minute model (such as trade sizing and seeing the reversals in advance) and I will provide chart links to the proprietary algorithmic models via email to our members.
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Crude Oil Day Trading Session From Oil Trading Room – Trading Set-up Short Waterfall Strategy.
If you want to learn how to day trade crude oil, or if you want to win more often and already are an oil day trader this post with live video from our oil trading room will provide you with insight to how I day trade crude oil.
The planning and preparation I perform prior to every trade (such as reviewing support and resistance on all time frames and charting), the signals I watch for and what the water-fall short trade set-up looks like and specifically how to day trade the price action.
This is a very detailed video and I highly recommend oil traders study it for maximum consistency to your trading gains.
Voice broadcast starts at 1:23 on video.
At start of this video there are announcements about what we are doing (our staff work in progress) and general view of markets and how the trade of equities (swing trades) is affected by nearby resistance on oil charting.
Topics of announcements include the coding updates for the machine trading, status of algorithm reports, the huge month in our oil trading last month (up 63% in one month), trade alerts, digital platform for our clients to watch machine trade real-time, swing trade timing for equity and various algorithm model swing trade positioning in this time cycle, why the machine trading can beat my overall return performance by 10 times, coding of other algorithm models, the publishing of the rule-set modules for oil trading (mechanical human executed & machine traded, intra-day swings, longer term swings and daytrading).
The Pull Back In Oil Trade.
At 9:20 I discuss the trade action in oil as we trade near key resistance in oil. We should see 53 and possibly 52’s and even more down.
Trade Signals to Watch For Positioning Swing Trades, Intra-Day Swings and Day Trading..
When trade hits support for a proper bounce we know when machines are in trade because the trade action becomes really clean within the models. This predictable trade action provides a signal for when to start longer swing trade entries, helps us with intra day swing trades within the EPIC trading model and provides for precise day trading on the one minute model.
Trend Line Support on Watch.
At 10:30 on video the basing trend-line on the 4 hour chart is reviewed as support. Conclusion of this pull back in oil should come soon. I am expecting at latest Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Watch for violent trade up / down (stops taken out), most likely down first so I am positioning my bias for that scenario first. Likely a sharp down and then sharp up and then the mid point between the two points should be the decision area.
Tomorrow is EIA so this could be your timing or likely before end of week is likely for the spike up and down and then the pivot decision goes in to Sunday night futures.
Basing trendline on 4 hr should conclude soon up or down for new trend in crude oil trade. #oil #chart #support
One Minute Crude Oil Day Trading Model.
At 12:48 I discuss trade on the one minute day trading model. The problem in trade as we get close to key resistance decision is trade becomes sloppy. So I show you how to trade the model if you need to trade and you don’t want to wait for the decision on oil trade trend direction.
The indicators are late so you have to act on price prior.
How to Trade a Key Intra-Day Break to Down Side (Waterfall) or Upside. The Oil Day Trade Starts Live on Video Here.
At 14:00 the intra-day possible break to downside in trade is discussed.
Planning and Preparation for Your Day Trade – Know Your Key Support Area on Charting Prior to Entering a Trade.
When trade on the one minute charting looks like a break to downside (or upside) is possible I first go to the EPIC model for key support or resistance. 53.52 is at mid quad on model, so that is support to watch.
At 16:24 on video 53.00 is a support on the daily chart (a Fibonacci support on the oil daily chart and the 20 MA support).
51.13 is next support and 57.31 for Feb 20 is the upside scenario.
My bias is pull back and then go again.
53.00 – 55.50 is a likely pivot area until a conclusion occurs in this trade area.
Oil trading room screen shot shows 53.00 support daily chart Fibonacci oil daily chart and 20 MA
At 18:00 on the video the weekly oil chart is reviewed.
The price extension support and resistance, the 20 MA 57.00 and 200 MA 52.30 (as your broad trading range) and trend lines on the weekly charting is reviewed. 53.26 price extension is serious support and price under that is an obvious short.
Know Where the Price Targets Are for the Machines.
Discussed is the end of week and EIA price targets on the EPIC algorithm model. The algorithmic channel and quad support and resistance areas.
Preparing My Short Order Day Trade in Oil Live on Trading Room Video.
At 20:00 on video I get my trading execution ready.
The Trade Pattern Set-up (Signal).
At 20:30 on video – When you see this pattern (trade signal) on the one minute charting model be very careful to cut your trade fast if the machines kick in the other direction (long).
Trade When Signals Are Most Predictable.
I prefer trading oil when the trend is clear and the machines are in it. Reports say over 80% of oil traders lose. This is largely why. Trade gets sloppy and then frustrates the trader.
Money in crude oil trading is made in the trend. Near resistance trading can mind mess you.
This is why I close my DWT short swing trade when we got near key resistance.
Winning is Important.
Not only is losing bad for your account but it is even more important for your mind. Your subconscious needs to know it wins. The subconscious is powerful.
Day Trading Model.
Location of trading boxes around three pivot areas of the one minute crude oil day trading chart model.
24:00 on video pivot resistance is discussed.
Pivot Resistance on the One Minute Oil Chart Model.
I am short bias to 53, 52.75 then 51.20 is possible.
Indicator Signals.
At 24:45 on the one minute you have stochastic RSI increasing and price that is basing, typically that means down next or even a possible waterfall short trade set-up.
The Risk-Reward (the Math of the Trade) On a Down-Side Break Set-up.
At 25:20 I start to discuss the math of the trade. You can take the short side trade and if price turns on you then you take a maximum cut of 16 ticks on the trade, but if price gets you on the right side and continues to confirm short then your win will be much bigger return.
Short Trade Executed – Play by Play.
At 25:42 on the video at 53.77 my short trade execution is done live.
Location on crude oil chart of short trade entry for day trade on chart below.
Location on crude oil chart of short trade entry for day trade.
Short crude oil trade alert screen shot of member Twitter alert feed is shown below at 53.77.
Short crude oil trade alert screen shot of member Twitter alert feed.
At 26.42 on video the buys came in at the Fibonacci support on the one minute model shown (red arrow).
Buys came in to oil trade intr day at the Fibonacci support on the one minute model shown (red arrow).
At 26.50 buy side trades are testing the 20 MA resistance on 1 minute chart.
At 28:34 on video trade is over the 20 MA trading 53.83 hit resistance on the pivot on the 1 min just under 50 MA.
Indicators are turning up now. Started to look like a reversal trade but I stayed with the plan because trend on the day was down and I didn’t want to be chopped up.
Trade hit 53.87 before it turned back down (so I was 10 ticks off side at that point). Technically trade got a penny or two over trading box resistance but I held because the bulls needed to have big buys and momentum to kick in to fight the daily trend which was pressure in trade.
At 32.35 the 4 hour chart is reviewed and my target for the risk reward to down side. The reward potential was much better in my thinking.
The EPIC model confirms also.
At 33:40 the weekly chart shows a good risk reward also.
Protecting you capital is key and trading for risk reward on trend for the time frame.
30 minute candle turn timing is discussed.
The pivot test continues.
At 39:13 on the video the technical area of key support for the day trade is reviewed. 53.58 is the next Fib down so you want trade to break under that and hold under 53.58 and if it doesn’t you’re best closing the trade for a scalp. This is purely a math play. You will win 50% and win you do win you’ll either get a decent scalp or a larger 5 x risk reward win.
This is purely a math play. You will win 50% and win you do win you’ll either get a decent scalp or a larger 5 x risk reward win.
At 42:47 volatility VIX is reviewed and how I want volatility to start rising intra-day.
At 45:28 the importance of trading in a zen state vs. frustration is discussed.
At 46:00 trading on bias based on technical set-ups and protecting your capital (accepting it quickly when you are wrong) is key to trading success.
At 48.00 the inverse head and shoulders that technicians on Twitter were talking about is discussed relative to the risk reward on the 30 minute chart price target.
The price target for the short oil trade is shared in the oil trading chat room private server.
The price target for the short oil trade is shared in the oil trading chat room private server.
How I Knew Where to Close the Short Oil Trade for a Win.
At 53:15 on the video is top of the hour with price falling and trade was under the key support resistance 54.59 and we needed it to hold under for staying in the trade short.
The price action here on the video is important to watch close here if you want to learn how to do this.
At 57:00 on video I explain that you could short again here, I didn’t, but price did come off and it would have been a decent short trade.
Trade did not stay under resistance at pivot so I closed the oil short trade for a win.
Trade did not stay under resistance at pivot so I closed the oil short trade for a win.
If You Want a Win Rate 90%+ DayTrading Crude Oil – I Highly Recommend Listening to this Part of The Video – IT IS KEY.
I continue to comment on how the trade continues to set up discussing the technical areas to watch.
If you want to learn about specifically where your support and resistance areas are on the one middle model BE SURE TO WATCH THE VIDEO HERE (from 57:00 minutes on video forward).
If you watch the price action and my commentary you will see how precise the machines trade the one minute model – THIS WILL HELP YOU TIME YOUR ENTRIES AND WHEN TO CLOSE. VERY IMPORTANT.
Below is a screen shot of the oil trade alert feed – closing the trade for a win.
Closed short trade – oil trade alert screen shot of alert feed.
Below is the Trade Executed Live in Oil Trading Room.
Peace and best,
Curt
Email me with any questions you may have compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.
Recent Learning Posts and Videos (most are premium member locked posts).
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
Crude Oil Day Trade Strategies (Live Video from Oil Trading Room with Alerts) for EIA, Market Open, Model Resistance, Time Cycles.
This video does not have any high flying trades, what it does have is important lessons for day trading crude oil and understanding how to use the oil trading models to your advantage. It also discusses in detail the time cycles and what to expect in trade action.
#oil #trading #strategies
Voice broadcast starts at 13:30 on oil trading room video.
January 30, 2019 Oil Trading Room Live Session Summary Notes.
13:30 premarket for regular market open comments about important resistance on EPIC Algorithm model and where trade should settle intra-day (at top of quad or mid quad) in advance of EIA petroleum report at 10:30.
14:30 comment to not buying the “pop” in price as I expected crude oil trade to calm in advance of EIA report timing. The resistance hidden pivot (yellow horizontal line on chart) is discussed.
15:00 Comments toward time cycle inflection on global markets (including crude oil) over next 3 or 4 days is discussed. We could inflect up or down on other side of time cycle peak. 55s is very possible (even a blow off in to 56 is possible) as an inflection up over next few days and a double extension up could happen. Time cycle in to mid May 2019 is the main pocket of trade sizing timing. See special report guidance in to May 2019 for crude oil.
Time cycle from end of Dec to now was difficult to trade with swing trade sizing but the next time cycle I can’t miss (the one starting in next few days in to mid May).
18:40 looking for whether price trade can get above pivot and structure a base for a trade on the model.
At 37:37 I comment to stagnant trade not being a surprise in to EIA and that I was looking for a slight short 20 to 30 points in to EIA. Trading 54.00 intra-day.
By 1:13:37 on oil trading room video you can see price did come off as expected.
At 1:17:30 EIA is in just under a minute. The model support and resistance is explained.
1:18:40 the one minute model has resistance in trade just over-head (chart not shown).
1:19:20 I announce the EIA petroleum report results and comment that generally trade should be bullish. At 1:20:00 price hits near top of quad.
For a number of weeks we’ve been targeting 55s Jan 31 to Feb 3 so this could be what finishes the trajectory on that time cycle peak.
Screen capture of oil trading room… “could be final move in to 55s if open is strong.”
Screen capture of oil trading room… could be final move in to 55s if open is strong
1:21:40 I am long at 54.24 for a trade above 1 minute support and EPIC model support. Test size trade long crude oil.
EPIC Crude Oil Trade Alert feed screen capture showing trade alerts for trade on the day. You can see that earlier in the day in overnight futures trade that I was actively trading for decent profit.
EPIC Crude Oil Trade Alert feed screen capture showing trade alerts for trade on the day.
Resistance 54.32 is noted as key resistance for the trade and the top of the quad and a comment to not getting to excited because of the various resistance points nearby.
1:23:27 we get a touch to the resistance. The test of resistance is commented to. 54.59 upside price target discussed if resistance is breached. Price did in fact hit that on the day later.
Resistance at mid point of trading box on the 1 minute model is discussed. At 1:26:00 on video I close the trade for a small gain at 54.29. Wasn’t interested in dealing with the resistance.
Remember at this point I am still holding DWT short from a number of days ago. The entry short was 13.57 and it hit 8s intra-day. Hoping for 7s before closing.
1:28:15 I show on the model the upside scenario and channel resistance being likely.
1:28:40 I discuss the recent sell off in crude oil in to 41s and our call to 55s in to this time cycle peak is discussed and why this area of trade is low risk reward. Also discussed is the type of trade action to expect in to the peak of the cycle in to Jan 31 – Feb 3.
Later in day I reiterate the time cycle peak in crude oil with price target guidance and visual representation of the time cycle and price target on oil chart model for our member strategy.
Time cycle conclusion near term on oil is 55.40 price target from previous reports last number of weeks (could spike in to 56.00) expiring on about Jan 31 – Feb 3. HOD was 54.90. We expect at min a small pull back. FX USOIL WTI Likely close short DWT (long oil) soon for short term only. Curt Melonopoly Yesterday at 11:37 PM Visual representation of the crude oil time cycle
Screen capture from oil trading chat room discussing trading strategies for time cycle peak and price target.
Later I reiterate time cycle crude oil price target and visual representation of time cycle and price target.
THE TAKEAWAYS – Main Oil Trading Strategies Learned on Video:
Just because oil was bullish in to the market open and normally that would mean a buy trigger – it doesn’t always mean buy.
– In this instance it was Wednesday and the timing of EIA coming in one hour after open had me hold off my long trade because trade normally softens in advance of EIA. Bulls and bears stand-off. Also, there was a key pivot resistance on the oil chart model in play. For these reasons and more the trade set-up was not ideal for risk reward. It wasn’t a high probability long trade.
– Know your resistance and support when trading and get out quick when resistance becomes real like with my EIA trade on this video.
It is highly recommended you review recent reporting, discord room chat (regular guidance is posted in the oil chat room private server) and the various videos that are released on a regular basis.
Recent Learning Posts and Videos (most are premium member locked posts).
Jan 29 – Trading the Main Support and Resistance on EPIC Algorithm Model. How to Post.
PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.
Further Learning:
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
