In an effort to provide trading guidance to our members on a regular basis and in the spirit of operating a transparent trading service, my letter to members below should provide clarity on our goals for 2019 and how we see the markets shaping up for trade.

2017 and 2018 Market Guidance Review.

Prior to the election we signaled bullish on equities and had a fantastic six months post election with huge returns. Then consistently our returns have softened and the last quarter returns have been less than 40% (if calculated on an annual basis) – specific to no algorithm trades. So we went from 400% to 40% since the election (again, if you calculated various time frames based on annual basis).

Late June of 2018 we started signalling a slow down in equities and our alerts and swing trading publications slowed, the market did in fact turn down. However, the end of that time cycle is here now.

Our time cycle work with instrument structure has been by far our highest probability guidance.

2019 Market Guidance Overview.

The list below coincides with our algorithm models and swing trading.

At this point, the time cycle inflection looks as follows;

SPY / equity markets bullish in to early May 2019 (some sectors will do better than others – hence our theme based approach to swing trade reporting and alerts in to 2019) with possibility for more frequent volatility spikes.

Oil bullish in to early May 2019.

VIX bearish in to early May 2019 however (as above) we see probability of VIX spikes very high.

Gold and Silver to hold moderate with likely pressured trade to bearish side.

Bitcoin as with Gold and Silver.

US Dollar DXY to come under bearish pressure.

If the above plays out as we expect then come mid May 2019 there is a high likelihood that the opposite for everything listed above (with possibly the exception being DXY) will be in play.

HOWEVER, IT IS CRITICAL to be aware that the guidance above can flip with the markets. Geopolitical risk is rampant right now. Our reporting depth will be significant for this reason. The instrument structure will be the focus and time frame of trade key to each structure. Stay flexible to the market inflections and trade the instrument structure (support and resistance therein) to your chosen time frame.

Reporting and Trade Alerts in the Next Time Cycle. 

The algorithm and swing trading reports will all be updated and distributed between Tuesday Jan 8 – 15 2019 to allow for two days of market action (this Monday and Tuesday) in to this new time cycle (post holiday).

There will be follow up reporting to approximately Jan 23rd that will focus on instrument structure (trading ranges on different time frames) for the algorithm models and swing trade equities we follow and then intensive thereafter through six month time cycle.

The deep dive we will be doing is for our trading on different time frames (swing trade and day trading) – you will find our trading to be significantly more active than the previous six months. This will include the machine trading in oil.

I should point out here also that the swing trade reporting and trades will be selective / theme based as we see a stock pickers six months next.

2018 / 2019 Work in Progress List.

We do have some team WIP left over from 2018 that will be cleaned up in January (it is nominal clerical type stuff for the most part). Some of the list is below:

  • Rules based machine trading protocol for oil to be published soon. This has been difficult to publish because our learning curve has been parabolic (the more you know about how an instrument trades the more you know that you didn’t know prior).
    • Our learning curve is starting to level out now so this will be released soon.
  • Machine trading signals to be fed in to main trading room (initially manually then auto when API integration complete).
    • For now I will be verbally feeding these in to the live trading room, however, Jeremy is working on the API soon for automation.
  • New pricing to be published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
    • Early in 2019 there will be a price increase on all services (when everything is updated).
  • Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
    • This will occur with the deep dive we are doing over next month in reporting initiative.
  • Trading Profit Loss to be Published for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
  • Previously recorded Trading Boot Camp Event videos to become available on Compound Trading website.
  • Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
  • New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
  • 1 day Boot Camps for each of the seven trading models and swing / daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
    • We wanted to do this late 2018 but time didn’t allow, we’re targeting Feb 2019.
  • 3 day Cabarete trading boot camp to be announced for Feb / Mar ish 2019.
  • Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
  • Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).

2019 Platform Normalization (copied from last member update)

In year one our goal was to simply get lift to our basic trading service platform and that was accomplished.

In year two (2018) our goal was to develop the software for machine trading to the oil model and bring forward various other development and that has been accomplished (it has been much more work than we expected and we are just there).

In year three (2019) our focus will be to normalizing our trading services platform in the first 6 months. Our focus also will be toward trading for profit and building our learning centers for our trading community. In the latter 6 months we will turn our focus back to software development with coding BTC and SPY at minimum. The difference will be that we expect to have staff in each area of the platform so that areas of service are not interrupted (stretched) with a start up staff size.

In summary, this means that we are cleaning up our work in progress from 2018 and going in to 2019 our service will be hyper focused on trading, reporting, trade alerts and the development of learning systems for our membership base.

The time cycle starting in to the new year is significant in size in global markets and we intend to capitalize on the opportunity this brings.

Remaining Discount Codes Expire Tuesday Midnight.

Disclaimer / Disclosure, Terms of Use.

Subscribers: read disclaimer.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Good morning Traders,

Trading View Data Feeds

The market data feed issue encountered a few days ago has proven to be more complicated in resolution than first assumed. It seems the changes in data flow may be here to stay. This affects a number of charts. For example the 240 min EPIC chart noted in previous communication. This requires our staff to re chart and / or re-integrate to our reporting and software development on our end. In short, it has caused a considerable work load for our staff to adjust.

Report Distribution Timing

Due to the data feed challenge, all weekly reporting will now be distributed over the next 72 hours (we are in final “work-arounds” with data for the new charting to be distributed).

Premarket Report – Trading Room

This will serve as premarket report today and no formal report will be issued.

The trading room will be open today and tomorrow and will be closed for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Annual Staff WIP

Our communication in the live trading room will be limited to alerts only as we are focused toward getting the reports out and our annual work in progress list fully complete before Jan 1.

2019 Platform Normalization (post software development)

In year one our goal was to simply get lift to our basic trading service platform and that was accomplished.

In year two (2018) our goal was to develop the software for machine trading to the oil model and bring forward various other development and that has been accomplished (it has been much more work than we expected and we are just there).

In year three (2019) our focus will be to normalizing our trading services platform in the first 6 months. Our focus also will be toward trading for profit and building our learning centers for our trading community. In the latter 6 months we will turn our focus back to software development with coding BTC and SPY at minimum. The difference will be that we expect to have staff in each area of the platform so that areas of service are not interrupted (stretched) with a start up staff size.

In summary, this means that we are cleaning up our work in progress from 2018 and going in to 2019 our service will be hyper focused on trading, reporting, trade alerts and the development of learning systems for our membership base.

The time cycle starting in to the new year is significant in size in global markets and we intend to capitalize on the opportunity this brings.

Markets and Trading

Today is the peak of the broad global time cycle. The markets are reflecting such with most of the markets at major support tests.

As noted previous, considerable caution is warranted one week either side of the time cycle.

As we come out the other side of this time cycle our trading will become progressively more aggressive as the days and weeks continue in to next 6 months.

Any questions please reach out.

Curtis


Markets: 

Markets are mixed (not surprising considering time cycle completion on 20 th ish). Extreme caution between here and 20th ish.

Current Trades:

Looking for a pull back on DGAZ to size next leg above starter.

Holding VIX starter short in TVIX – HIGH RISK TRADE, extreme caution. Likely reverse bias after Dec 20 ish.

Holding SPY long starter. Likely reverse to short after Dec 20 ish.

Holding DWT short starter (however, it looks like oil may take another leg down here, it will either hold here or down another floor). Will size in next leg after a pull back in oil.

Holding ARWR swing starter long (missed my next leg size).

Looking for a possible BTC long swing other side of Dec 20 ish.

Looking for a possible Silver and Gold long other side of Dec 20 ish.

Looking for a possible DXY short other side of Dec 20 ish.

Expect next 6 months to be trading career huge. Massive range. Equity swings will increase as we come out of this time cycle peak – it will be a stock pickers year in 2019 with technical analysis rooting the trade action. My goal is to retire off front lines in 6 months (still here, but off the front lines), to do that my personal trading and machine trading has to be massive to win side.

Schedule:

At 2 PM today I am taking the team in to lock down with me until Sunday night futures. We have to finish the coding updates in oil we discovered necessary with things that happened in trade this week – I know, it takes time and we’re going to get this right. We also got behind due to WordPress updates that completely surprised us. We’ve resolved the issues but this has put our reporting behind. So this needs to also be caught up. And lastly, we have a 2018 work in progress list that has to be completed before Jan 1, 2019. So we’ll be in staff lock-down between 2 pm today and Sunday futures. Next week we will likely do the same around this time of the week to get everything caught up before the new year.

Trading Room Schedule:

I will be in trading room for open and most of the morning. Markets are in flux so I don’t expect much trading (YTBD) and encourage you to stay safe as possible until we’re on other side of Dec 20. Trading room will close near mid day. No mid day review. Trading room will not be open Friday and will re-open for Sunday night futures.

Premarket report may be processed – pending at this point.

Any questions send me a DM or email anytime.

Curt


A Quick Member Client Update:

Code: The testing for the EPIC algorithm machine trading has been going well this week. The trades triggered have been successful, a few missed opportunities (no trigger executed) because of “on the fly” updates but all in all we are very pleased with the results. Every trade has been profitable.

Last evening Katie updated our most recent “on the fly” updates to the code.

Post EIA (Thursday this week) we expect 90% + of opportunities on wide structure to trigger. A significant increase.

Markets: Markets are closed for a national day of mourning tomorrow. We see some continued structure building however the inversion is signalling a recession is possible. Yet to be seen.

Positioning Trades: Short term we are looking for long positions in to Christmas. There is (as noted previous) a time cycle completion we are concerned about on Dec 5. So in short we are waiting for that to pass and EIA to pass and then make decisions on sizing positions for a move in to Dec 20 th ish.

Next Level Charting: There is a new EPIC report in editing now that details our newest charting developed for our coding that our client members will be able to use. It is next level, really exciting developments on that end.

Soon we will start on coding SPY and BTC.

Trade Positions: We remain short DWT and are looking for sizing in to it further post EIA.

For other scheduling refer to below. In short, we are in coding intense this week, publishing trading alerts but no reporting or premarket reports etc until this round of coding done late this week. Also BTW update oil and BTC algorithm charting emailed last night to members.

Any questions shoot me an email anytime.

And do not miss that XMAS 40%, there’s only 10 discount codes for each and that won’t come around until next XMAS (if at all).

Thanks

Curt

40% Discounts here:

https://compoundtrading.com/exclusive-member-christmas-discounts-trade-alerts-swing-reports-algorithm-reporting-trade-coaching-live-trading/

Per Previous:

https://compoundtrading.com/service-schedule-week-of-december-2/

Member Client Modified Platform Schedule for Week of December 2, 2018:

As noted previous, we are done the bulk of the coding for EPIC’s machine trading Generation 1. Last week we tested it in live trades (not alerted for the most part) and found a number of rule-set details that required code modification (we expected to be alerting more trades to our members than took place, so this week we are pushing completion details). This is a process that has to executed live between traders and techs – there are many variables. To keep this explanation short, this week we expect to alert most of the trades the machine trading is executing. We see much less variable rule set code tweaking. To be sure we complete the bulk of the testing and tweaks needed we are going to limit some of our other platform services for the majority of the week below as we have limited staff. This process may continue for weeks (the further along the less service throttling will be required) – at regular intervals we will notify members of service schedules as with this update.

If you have any specific questions please send us a note.

Here’s the member client service schedule for the upcoming week:

Alert Feeds: Per normal, specifically we expect more machine trading alerts on EPIC’s Oil feed this week and likely more swing trading alerts (going in to completion of the next time cycle).

Discord Chat Rooms: We will rely more on the chat rooms (of course oil being the main focus currently) than we will the live trading room. We DO NOT EXPECT to be in the live trading room this week. If that changes we will let you know. It will be an intensive week to try and bring the bulk of the coding required to complete the lower time-frames for oil trade decisions to a close. So we expect to be very active on both the alert feeds and the Discord chat (with trades and trade explanations) but not the live trading room.

Live Trading Room: The live trading room will not be used this week unless really intensive trading positions are occurring with large size multi leg trades. Lead trader is not likely to be present in live trading room at market open and for mid day reviews this week Dec 3 – 8th.

Reporting:

Algorithm reporting – the regular algorithm reporting is likely to be near none during the period of Dec 3 – 8th and we will make up the lag time quickly thereafter (again, we are using our staff resource to complete the small time frame coding for the EPIC oil machine trading)

Premarket report – as with the regular weekly reporting above we do not expect to be publishing premarket reports Dec 3 – 8th.

Trade Coaching: Trade coaching already scheduled remains as scheduled.

To summarize, we are in a push to get the lower time frame decisions coded to the oil machine trading. After the oil software is complete we will start on SPY and Bitcoin machine trading. We expect alerts and discord chat (trade related) to increase this week and live trading room to be near zero. The regular weekly reporting for this week will be near zero and we will make up that lag in to the week after Dec 3 – 8th.

Lets have a great trading week!

Jen, Compound Trading Group

Per: Curt


Member Client Modified Platform Schedule for Week of December 2, 2018:

As noted previous, we are done the bulk of the coding for EPIC’s machine trading Generation 1. Last week we tested it in live trades (not alerted for the most part) and found a number of rule-set details that required code modification (we expected to be alerting more trades to our members than took place, so this week we are pushing completion details). This is a process that has to executed live between traders and techs – there are many variables. To keep this explanation short, this week we expect to alert most of the trades the machine trading is executing. We see much less variable rule set code tweaking. To be sure we complete the bulk of the testing and tweaks needed we are going to limit some of our other platform services for the majority of the week below as we have limited staff. This process may continue for weeks (the further along the less service throttling will be required) – at regular intervals we will notify members of service schedules as with this update.

If you have any specific questions please send us a note.

Here’s the member client service schedule for the upcoming week:

Alert Feeds: Per normal, specifically we expect more machine trading alerts on EPIC’s Oil feed this week and likely more swing trading alerts (going in to completion of the next time cycle).

Discord Chat Rooms: We will rely more on the chat rooms (of course oil being the main focus currently) than we will the live trading room. We DO NOT EXPECT to be in the live trading room this week. If that changes we will let you know. It will be an intensive week to try and bring the bulk of the coding required to complete the lower time-frames for oil trade decisions to a close. So we expect to be very active on both the alert feeds and the Discord chat (with trades and trade explanations) but not the live trading room.

Live Trading Room: The live trading room will not be used this week unless really intensive trading positions are occurring with large size multi leg trades. Lead trader is not likely to be present in live trading room at market open and for mid day reviews this week Dec 3 – 8th.

Reporting:

  • Algorithm reporting – the regular algorithm reporting is likely to be near none during the period of Dec 3 – 8th and we will make up the lag time quickly thereafter (again, we are using our staff resource to complete the small time frame coding for the EPIC oil machine trading)
  • Premarket report – as with the regular weekly reporting above we do not expect to be publishing premarket reports Dec 3 – 8th.

 Trade Coaching: Trade coaching already scheduled remains as scheduled.

To summarize, we are in a push to get the lower time frame decisions coded to the oil machine trading. After the oil software is complete we will start on SPY and Bitcoin machine trading. We expect alerts and discord chat (trade related) to increase this week and live trading room to be near zero. The regular weekly reporting for this week will be near zero and we will make up that lag in to the week after Dec 3 – 8th.

Lets have a great trading week!

Jen, Compound Trading Group

 

Per: Curt

 


Friday Schedule – Machine kills first automated oil trade yesterday (top tick short oil), Next week:

 

– No premarket report. No mid day.

 

– I will be in live trading room, but only on mic / active if I trade. If I am trading I will advise in Discord that I am on mic in live trading room.

 

– I will be available and at trading desk all day working (on conference) with team (coding / reports), if you need anything DM me on Discord. If you’re trading (and a trade coaching student) send me a note before / as you trade if you can (time allows).

 

– Machine trading api’s are near all complete for oil algorithm so expect alerts to increase in regularity (the last api is expected to be connected Tues at latest). The machine killed its first real trade yesterday, WOW.

 

– Final reports will be out over next 24 hours.

 

– Next week will be regular schedule in trading room etc forward as machine trade coding for Oil algorithm will be complete.

 

– Remember we have a 20 minute platform outage between now and Tuesday at some point to move fiber line.

 

Thanks

 

Curt


Thursday / Friday Trading Schedule

 

Pushing all reporting out Thursday – Sunday as our focus (everything listed on our to-do list as listed on any premarket report).

 

Will be in live trading room for 11:00 EIA Petroleum report ONLY today (as it applies to live trading room). No premarket / market open or mid-day review.

 

No premarket report.

 

Trade alerts per usual.

 

Trade coaching appointments etc per usual.

 

Will advise prior to Friday premarket for Friday schedule.

 

Thanks

 

Curt


Taking Thurs and Fri for lab work with our team to push out all new algorithm reports, swing reporting, videos, P/Ls and various other important updates to the platform.

 

Planning for a massive Q4 2018 & Q1 2019 – so all the updates have to be out this week (I have to approve everything prior to distribution to members – so it takes time).

 

Live trading room will recommence Sun night futures / Monday morning, key day and swing trade alerts will still go out as normal, premarket report and mid day reviews recommence Monday.

 

Have a good day traders!

 

Curt


No premarket today. Too much going on.

We’re trading oil aggressive in to #EIA today. And will be trading $SPY $ES_F and $BTC $XBTUSD aggressive starting next few days with new machine trading overlays to charts on deck (back testing now).

And we need to get all machine trading models done for the rest ($VIX, GOLD GC_F, SILVER $SLV, US Dollar $DXY) and the Swing Trading equities before the Sept 14 trade coaching event. So we are maxed out to say the least.

And we’ll be alerting all those machine trades also – so we’re ramping up but it’s a big ramp.

Thanks

Curt

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