21
Aug 2023

Trader’s BootCamp Onboarding and Itinerary

Trading Boot Camp Curt Melonopoly

Good morning traders,

 

RE: Trader’s BootCamp Onboarding and Itinerary

 

Access the trading room here: https://compoundtrading1.clickmeeting.com/livetrading

 

Password: *** (request from Jen)

 

Revised Dates of event: Aug 21-26 and Sept 18-22

 

Time: 9:30 – 4:30 EST daily (may finish earlier or later pending material covered).

 

https://compoundtrading.com/product/trade-coaching-boot-camp-july-17-22-2023/

 

Videos of each day will be sent out to attendees each evening after each session. So if you miss some or all of any day you will have the videos.

 

Day 1 the event is likely to finish earlier due to a technical team arriving late afternoon for installation.

 

The Aug 21-26 format will be Curtis building his trading plans for instruments of trade for execution of trades coming out of VIX time cycle with plans in to the next time cycle in ***** 2024. This will be a chart and voice presentation only. Questions can be sent in to [email protected] during session (or in evening after) and Curtis will answer questions as he reviews questions at each stage in event during breaks.

 

Between the August session and the September session the attendees can also send Curtis questions on email to be answered in various formats (either by return email, on video etc).

 

The Sept 18-22 format will be interactive with a live video feed of the event room with interactive questions as we go along. The Sept sessions will be more focussed on the Great Reset, our team planning for Risk Management through the reset and will also be the official start of the podcasts which will cover similar material (we will be broadcasting live the event of the Great Reset and doing our best to help guide our traders in the event). The Sept sessions will also cover other projects launching of various types including cryptos, real world assets and others.

 

After the Sept sessions attendees may send in questions as needed and Curtis will answer in the same way (return email or video webinars etc) and will also include in depth discussions in the podcasts (answer to attendee questions).

 

Where this differs primarily from previous BootCamps is that the Podcasts are going to become an important part of attendees follow up for trading plan discussions (trading the Great Reset) and also will include in depth discussions of Great Reset moves our team and our trader’s are making for risk management in very real world terms.

 

Additionally, the podcasts in future and the BootCamps will be intertwined in that BootCamps will be held very regularly (which is a change to plans) to bring together our tribe both in Podcast format and BootCamp format on a regular basis. Dates will be announced.

 

It is our belief that the Great Reset will begin escalating early 2024 and this will be our commitment to our traders – guiding in as detailed manner as possible the Great Reset. The moves we make in crypto projects, real world business, trading and many other topics of discussion.

 

The August sessions will not have the in person attendees at the same location as Curtis because Curtis is in a very remote location and the in person group wanted to remain in the Sosua / Cabarete area primarily because there is a tropical storm approaching the island that may cut off Curtis’ (or attendee) access to airports for some time with heavy rains and or flooding.

 

Any questions at all, please send to me at [email protected].

 

Warm regards,

 

Jen

29
Jul 2023

EPIC Software Trading Protocol Options

This update will provide additional (more specific) trade protocol architecture descriptions and options for future forward decisions for

EPIC Software Trading Protocol Options

White Paper Updates Curt Melonopoly

This update will provide additional (more specific) trade protocol architecture descriptions and options for future forward decisions for Sovoron side (private client), various other licensed users, and various Token project holders.

Please understand, in advance of reading this update that the EPIC software has an instruction set nearing 9300 instructions in the trade execution tree and that a communication update as provide below is described in the most simple form possible.

In short, the software has three primary operating protocols, the first two are an either/or decision and the third included with either of the first two.

The first option is a steady low risk protocol. The low risk protocol is essentially any version of software (the most recent before an update) that has accomplished “stability”. The most recent software version (prior to update) provides a 60% – 150% annual ROI with a maximum interim drawdown of about 3-7% at any given time. At any time, while pushing forward in development, our team can settle on a version (such as this example) and not continue development of new versions.

At one time in our history, this wasn’t the case because “stability” wasn’t achieved. This is different now, in that “stability” has been achieved and is quite remarkable. However, there is always in development forward, a decision to be made in terms of associated perceived risk. I will explain further.

The second option is to continue to develop and push forward with new versions of software (as with the most recent update). To be clear, this option comes with “stability” also, but will experience larger draw-downs (which can be determined in advance – the size of possible draw-down limits). The reason “stability” is still in place for either option 1 or 2 is that the 3rd protocol mentioned above is the high probability protocol that almost always wins and will “back-fill” any draw-downs as they occur in cycles of trade. The argument for using option 2 and pushing forward in development is that mathematically in oil trade for example, there is a return maximum available of approximately 2000% per annum. This is possible mathematically but unlikely achievable. However, our team believes that with time we can reach 350% – 700% and likely closer to 350%.

In summary, the first option is to settle on the most recent software version performance, whatever that may be, and not continue further in development pushing forward for more ROI. The second option is to continue pushing forward for greater ROI but the interim draw-downs are more significant. In either instance, the third protocol activates when the draw-down risk limit has been hit. In option 1 the risk limit is approximately 6% at most at any given time. In Option 2 the risk limit can be significantly greater. In the most recent sequence of trade, late last week, the draw-down (depending on account type and size) was 6% -14%. However, it is estimated that this specific version (the latest) will achieve 350% ROI over time.

So what happens during a peak draw-down period?

This is when the third protocol activates in the software. To the casual observer, token holder or private account client this can be a pensive duration of time. In other words, when the third protocol (we call it the back-stop protocol) activates, it functions differently than the first two option protocols. I will explain.

The first two options are designed as a sequencing protocol, that provide a certain ROI within sequence of trade over hours, days or even weeks. The method is primarily described as position trading with a hint of swing trading – by the development team it is described as a dot plotting protocol. The mandate of the protocols is to provide a low dollar cost average trading against or with trend and when the trend turns (if trading against), if even just a pull back, then the sequence is in profit and typically closed. This works in about 9 in 10 occasions, however, when trade becomes “divergent”, usually because of an event in the world or central banking interventions and such, a draw-down can occur. This happens because the trade action of the instrument of trade becomes algorithmically “historically divergent”. The price action becomes “divergent” on all time frames and thus a draw-down occurs.

Then the “back-stop” protocol activates. I will explain further.

In the most recent sequence of trade, at a key decision area (historically the price action will find resistance or support 9 in 10 times) as seen late last week, when the price action is at its most extended point in that probability, EPIC software is at or near its maximum hold position in the positioning protocol, and at and around the maximum extension (9 in 10 times) it the sizes up on an intra-day basis to “catch” a pull back. When it is firing at size intra-day for that reversal (even if the reversal is very temporary) it requires algorithmic price action, if it encounters action at a primary extension pivot (as was seen late last week) that is algorithmically sloppy then it will draw-down and when the maximum risk is hit the software zeros out the position and sits and waits.

It is waiting for the third protocol (the back-stop protocol) to activate.

The back-stop protocol is different. There are three primary differences;

  1. It is not a “positioning” protocol, it is only high frequency intra-day.
  2. It has a much smaller allowance for off-side execution than the “in size” key extension pivot trading described above. The key pivot in size trading described above can have significant range allowance for the “in-size” executions. The back-stop protocol is different in that it is very, very tight, and only allows for a very limited stop range at each execution.
  3. And the last primary difference, which is the most significant difference, the back-stop protocol of the software will not fire unless all time frames from the 15 second to the 1 month time frame (charted) are algorithmicall alligned. This is why it near never loses. However, this can mean waiting for hours, days or even a short number of weeks for it to fire. This can be pensive for some observers. The wait. The trade-off however, is that it near never loses and when it does it is very, very small (the loss).

So the the obvious question becomes, “if the third protocol (the back-stop high frequency protocol) nearly never loses, then why not just use that protocol all the time and only that protocol?”. And the answer is simply that the ROI of that protocol is estimated to be about 150%-300% per year (at this time unknown) and doesn’t allow for pushing forward further development toward the moonshot. The other reason we have not deployed it as the standard is that it does frustrate some observers, in that waiting on it to fire can take time.

Something else to consider is that quite often, the back-stop protocol doesn’t take a lot of time to provide the “back-fill” executions. In other words, quite often when trade action becomes algorithmically divergent and “sloppy” very shortly after that occurance, trade will become very algorithmically alligned on all time frames and the back-stop protocol back-fills the draw-down and then some and then the new positioning sequence commences. We have seen this happen many times over seven years of development. It usually does not take long for the back-stop protocol to back-fill with significant upside ROI. However, in some instances it can take days or a few weeks.

It is also important to note that the ROI expectations of the slow and steady protocol decision (the most recent version before update) or the ROI expections of the newest push forward version release is not affected by the draw-down and back-fill process. The third protocol (the back-fill protocol) has never failed – it is literally a back-stop protocol that we are 100% confident in – in that it does do its job every time. Again, the down-side is that it can take time.

Further communication and understanding.

In the trading Boot-Camps we dive much deeper in to the protocols in an effort to help train traders to be better, we also often provide video webinar updates, a live trading room, white paper updates and our clients are also encouraged to reach out to our team anytime for more clarification.

We want your vote, your opinions and any feedback.

This is a general request for the token holders of any of our tokenized projects to provide us your vote, would you prefer we stay with the slow and steady protocol of the most recent version (prior to update) or would you prefer we continue developing toward the moon-shot. We honestly would like to know. Primarily because our tokenized projects are provided for a small tribe and not developed and launched as a broad market tokenized project like most. Our tokenized project(s) intent is to provide stable returns for holders and possibly a better hedge against a financial reset than most other tokenized projects or conventional markets may or may not provide. SO WE ASK that each token holder provide your vote on Session app to the treasury so we can make a determination for the tribe. We will communicate the results prior to the start of the next sequence of trade. For now, the software is in Protocol 3 mode and will only fire intra-day to back-fill the most recent draw-down. In other words, you have hours to weeks to provide us with your feedback – we do not know. It could be Monday and the back-fill is done.

And to our private side clients, feel free to reach out anytime and let us know your preference. Out default position is always to forge forward in our development toward the 2000% moonshot only because we have the back-stop protocol that back-fills draw-downs as each occasion occurs. This is the “stability” of the software. If we did not have the “stability” 100% in place this would obviously be different.

At regular intervals we will release the trade executions which will allow those wanting to look in to execution protocols more deeply can do so at each update.

And a final note, as questions come to us for clarication, we will update this document and advise of the update.

Thank you for supporting our journey toward the best trading software in the world.

 

03
Jun 2023

EPIC v4.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software White Paper | June 3, 2023

Machine Trading , , , , Curt Melonopoly

EPIC v4.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software

Project History & Objective.

Our team set out over six years ago to develop sophisticated software architecture for the trade of crude oil futures.

The objective: to provide a stable yet high performance product achieving an increasingly higher ROI over time as the software processes market data, structure of trade action and order-flow.

The software has undergone a number of updates over recent years (see links at end of this document for previous white paper updates), the most recent updates have provided for a stable trading entity that continues to excel in terms of ROI.

The most recent updates, noteably the Dec 8, 2022 EPIC v3.9 update and the most recent EPIC v4.1.1 version are providing stellar real world results both in terms of ROI and stability.

EPIC is used by the trading team at Compound Trading (for live trading alert feeds and the live trading room), also by Sovoron.com for private client trading executions and OilDefi.io to facilitate a decentralized (Defi) crypto tokenization platform.

Below is a sample Sovoron real trade account performance. 

SOVORON.com 58.69% Annualized ROI from previous update to EPIC v4.1.1 software update and forward Dec 8, 2022 – June 2, 2023 (audited financials or sample account broker statements available for SOVORON participants). As of June 2, 2023 software is in its first sequence of the new v4.1.1 update and escalates protocol to a total of maximum nine sequences. Estimated ROI for this version of software is well over 100% per annum but is difficult to determine full potential through the nine sequence escalations.

Calculated using a sample 300k account (real trades) per this calculation (click here).

Sample real 300k account ROI graph.

Note the consistent trajectory with low draw down and the increased trajectory of return.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is EPIC-Annualized-Trading-Results-1024x386.jpg

The primary challenge until mid 2021 was “stability” vs. ROI objectives.

Until recently, some versions of the software achieved over 150% annual ROI and some as low as 20%. The size of the trade account was the most significant determining factor (the larger the account size the more stable the software is and the higher the return).

Over time the architecture of the software has been perfected, but the real game-changer has been the development of the EPIC IDENT™ Order Flow component of the code and more recently the Intra-Day High Frequency code that relies heavily on IDENT™.

In short, there are three primary protocols of code in the software;

  1. Swing Trading (average sequence duration is 11 weeks and has been as short as 1 week and as long as 16 weeks).
  2. Intra-Day High Frequency (average sequence duration is considerably less than 24 hours but can also be described at times as intra-week lasting up to 3 or 4 days).
  3. EPIC IDENT™ Order Flow (extremely high frequency for positioning alongside significant machine “entities” that have presented themselves in the intra-day order flow). 

The software has proven to be very stable while consistently providing considerable returns. 

To our knowledge the EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software is best in class. 

EPIC Software Highlights.

  1. Lightning Fast Decisions. EPIC crude oil trading software executes trades through utilizing over 9300 weighted decisions instantly. The instructions provided within the architecture are growing daily. A human trader cannot make decisions as quickly, cannot process the data required for most intelligent trading probabilities and cannot execute trades as precisely.
  2. Algorithmic Chart Models. The EPIC software includes over thirty proprietary algorithmic chart models and the catalogue is growing. The algorithmic models have been designed, tested and refined in real-world trade for over 6 years by a team of day traders, each with over 20 years of experience. The oil trading models represent all time-frames from 15 second to monthly time-frames of trade. The algorithmic models have been back-tested to sixty months historically.
  3. Conventional Charting. The software includes conventional charting structures on all time-frames, also back-tested sixty months.
  4. Common Trade Set-Ups. Included in the software are common trade set-ups that oil day traders implement. 
  5. Order Flow. EPIC IDENT™ is data-driven order flow intelligence in real-time to achieve best outcomes. The software includes and executes to a proprietary order flow identification system that tracks behavior (specifically isolating other market machine liquidity) and weighs identified entities and historical trade patterns to its trade decisions (instructions). EPIC IDENT™ increases its intelligence as it gathers data intra-day specific to liquidity flow, historical patterns, time of day, volatility, various preferences, latency, rejects and more. The method is similar to back-testing charting. However, the process occurs in real-time. In short, the software is looking for “fingerprints” within market liquidity. We cannot back-test 60 months as with charting, but back-testing from date of software deployment has been achieved.
  6. Time Cycles. Time cycles are within all algorithmic and conventional trading model structures. Order flow also has identified time cycles and other time cycle events such as weekly reporting in oil markets (API, EIA and rig counts). Additionally there are time-of day market time cycles around the world. All of these different time-cycles are included in the software architecture.
  7. Hard-Pivot Architecture. The risk threshold – management system within the EPIC architecture now has a hard pivot rule-set that has near ended substantial risk for accounts in the 300k range and completely ended risk for the 600k or larger accounts.

Combined, these advantages enable the EPIC Crude Oil Trading software to outperform conventional trading methods.

Introduction to Oil Market Trade and Machine Trading.

The world of public market trade is rapidly changing. It is estimated (depending on source) that over 80% of crude oil futures are not traded by humans and are now traded by machines.

Machine trade may be simple, bot style software, high-frequency software or more sophisticated architecture as with the EPIC class of algorithm.

Our team commenced the oil trading software development journey nearly seven years ago with algorithmic chart model development. From day one we employed computer scientists to work with us on a daily basis to build software that would emulate our trading methods.

Over time the software started to win more trades than our traders and today we rely almost solely on the software to execute trades. We simply “tweak” the software at each trade sequence to improve performance.

Account Size – ROI and Draw-Down Volatility.

The smaller the account size traded, the more difficult it is for the software to limit downside risk and provide optimal returns.

We have learned over time that a 100k account size will see volatility and has considerable associated risk. A 300k account size will rarely see volatility (draw-down risk) and a 600k account size is expected to almost never encounter volatility. As noted above, the risk threshold – management system within the EPIC architecture now has a hard pivot rule-set that has near ended substantial risk for accounts in the 300k range and completely ended risk for the 600k or larger accounts.

The software is designed to trade within a sequence of trade within structures or set-ups. As the oil market price changes, the software trading logic uses all the different data to update the decision tree utilizing the instruction rule-set.

You can imagine this as a dot plot process similar to the game “Go” – not exactly, but the concept helps to visualize how the software plots a sequence plan for trade.

The “ebb and flow” of regular oil market trade allows opportunity for the software to plot a plan of trade within a sequence. The larger the account, the more dots that can be plotted (trades can be “bite sized” entries within an “ebb and flow”).

To understand the trading methodology of the software in each “sequence” of trade requires a moderately in-depth conversation to review data with a member of our team.

In short, the software uses a positioning (swing trade) protocol for each sequence of trade and a high-frequency intra-day protocol via EPIC IDENT™ technology. On the positioning (swing trade) side of the architecture, this means that as crude oil price is rising the software is building a position short through-out the rally (and the opposite is true if the price of oil is falling). However, the average cost is off-set by the high-frequency component of trade via EPIC IDENT™ technology so that when the trend reverses the software achieves considerable returns.

API / Deployment Architecture.

EPIC v4 software is designed to be deployed remotely – accessing an account and executing trades. This provides the account holder with ultimate control. The account holder grants the software access and the software executes machine trades to the account. Architecture provides opportunity for decentralized platform integration.

Conclusion.

This paper outlines the opportunities that can be presented by the growing influence of machine trade on global financial markets.

Competitors within the machine trade industry are becoming more and more refined and successful – the best in class are assumed to be winning a larger portion of proceeds.

The most significant immediate challenge developers face in machine trade is building a product that will perform within a prescribed threshold of downside limiting stability while outperforming conventional trading methods.

Soon thereafter the challenge becomes competing against “like-kind” machine trade peers and being best in class.

It is our expectation that fewer and fewer competitors will achieve more of the proceeds (as a whole of trade in public markets) at an exponential rate, which does provide urgency to development and deployment.

The EPIC v4 trading software achieves consistent, predictable and very adaptable architecture that provides exceptional best in class ROI.

Business Inquiries.

For information about our subscription services that include; oil trade alerts, an oil trading room and oil trade newsletter reporting contact Compound Trading Group at [email protected] or www.compoundtrading.com.

For information about the data behind the trade (results) or utilizing our automated crude oil machine trading platform contact our agent representative Richard Regan:

Email [email protected]
Phone 1-849-861-0697

Previous in this document series can be found here:

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