Late Monday We Started A Crude Oil Short Sell Trade Sequence In To Technical Resistance in Advance of API Report Release Tuesday at 4:30.
Below are the trade positions we executed in this trade sequence (API report / resistance strategy) short and long, the charts, technical reasons and live oil trading room raw video.
As of the time of writing the strategy / sequence of trade is still in play.
When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trade broadcast room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in a Discord private member server.
The Trade Strategy Set-Up – Selling Crude Oil Futures in To A Rally
Oil trade to start the week was/is bullish in some respects, the MACD on the daily is turned up and Trump seems to be softening a bit on the China trade war, and there was some news about a drone attack on Saudi Production Field also – so shorting in to a rally isn’t exactly going with the momentum. So this trade strategy does not have the momentum factor on our side.
Whenever possible trade with (in the direction of) momentum.
Oil ends higher after drone attack on Saudi production field
Published: Aug 19, 2019 4:09 p.m. ET
Nevertheless, technically oil trade intra-day was starting to get near resistance areas on various charting time frames, nearing resistance on important trend-lines on various time frame charts and was already up significantly on the day. At the time we started shorting oil intra-day our IDENT machine trade software was beginning to identify order flow selling pressure from other machine liquidity entities in intra-day markets.
Also, it was Monday trade -getting later in the day and Tuesday at 4:30 is the API report so any rally in price is likely to sell down somewhat (a retrace at minimum).
And finally, on days where crude oil has rallied it is often sold off in overnight futures trade session or in the following regular US regular session.
The price target on this short bias strategy is 55.22 (derived from the most probable price of oil per the EPIC Algorithm model) in to 4:30 Tuesday API report. We started shorting oil at 55.98 intra-day.
A crude oil day trade strategy such as this requires knowing where the technical resistance and support is on various time frame charting and the trader being able to size short trades in to resistance and cover various contract size at various supports. It requires technical know-how and strong risk management (trade size management, understanding technical range and emotional intelligence).
It isn’t an easy trade but comes with significant risk-reward if executed with proper discipline.
As mentioned above, at time of writing this trade sequence is still in play so I will update this article tomorrow with the conclusion of the trade results profit / loss etc. In the meantime I will share some charting, alerts, trading room video etc below so you can get a feel for how we are managing our execution of this particular strategy.
The oil chart below is a summary of all trades so far in the strategy.
Current sequence of all trades are mapped on the oil chart showing short trades (red) and buys to cover short positions (green). At this point we are 1/10 size short (at time of writing).
Current sequence of trades mapped on an oil chart showing short trades (red) and buys to cover short.
The first four positions in red at left of chart image is a 4/10 size short when order flow was showing significant selling pressure was starting. This was the battle ground for continued rally in price of oil intra-day or a retrace in price of some sort.
The bulls won the intra-day range battle so we covered 2/10 size for small scalps and held 2/10 size as price continued to rally in to resistance.
We added 2 more positions of size in to the next resistance area of the charting and the progression goes from there, covering wins when possible at support areas and re-shorting at resistance areas.
If price alternately continued bullish we would have covered at least one if not the two add size positions of the short. However, price did not continue to rally and this area of trade was the high of day for oil nearing the end of regular US market session.
This process (of shorting chart resistance areas and covering short positions at support areas) will continue in the strategy (trade sequence) until a strong intra-day sell-off occurs, at which time we will cover the remaining short positions for a win.
The Oil Trading Alerts (screen capture images and comments).
Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:00 PM 55.98 sold 4 bot 1 55.93 holds 3
Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:17 PM boy .94 holds 2
Curt MelonopolyToday at 2:39 PM Sell 1 56.18 holds 3, this sequence could run until 4:30 Tues API for a PT of 55.22
Curt MelonopolyToday at 3:47 PM Sold 2 56.30 bot 1 56.23 holds 4 trading 56.22
Screen capture of oil trading alerts in oil chat room – the start of the sequence of short selling oil intraday.
Day trade alerts for oil trade strategy in chat room continue in to close of regular market session.
Curt MelonopolyToday at 4:10 PM Cover 1 56.21 hold 3 short
Curt MelonopolyToday at 4:59 PM See ya at 6 pm
Day trade alerts for oil trade strategy in chat room continue in to close of regular market session.
Alerts continue in to the futures trading session and the trade sequence continues.
Curt MelonopolyToday at 6:02 PM Buy 1 56.03 hold 2 short
Curt MelonopolyToday at 8:04 PM Buy 1 55.89 hold 1 short
Alerts continue in to the futures trading session and the trade sequence continues.
Trade strategy guidance posted to oil chat room about 15 minute chart model symmetry and sell off area intraday.
Its selling in to mid quad on 15 min model as we thought (trading plan from trading room earlier) Buy the day, sell over night
To clarify : Selling in to lower part of the 15 min quad at mid duration through the quad Symmetry from 1 week earlier almost identical also
Trade strategy guidance posted to oil chat room about 15 minute chart model symmetry and sell off area intraday.
One of many examples of near resistance on oil chart models is the 30 min in picture (dark black trend line above price).
One of many examples of near resistance on oil chart models is the 30 min in picture (dark black trend line above price)
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her oil trade strategy / thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
I did voice alert the trade executions in the live trading room on Monday (in video), however, there was not great detail as to the trade set-up / strategy, there is some guidance but not lengthy.
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.
Remember also that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Crude Oil Webinar – Machine Trade Informational. Topics Include; YTD Machine Trade Profit and Loss Performance, Development Process and What Is Planned Going Forward. 7:00 – 7:45 PM EST Sunday August 25. Register by emailing compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com #OOTT$CL_F$WTI$USO
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
As we gear up for another trading week in advance of our larger prep for the fall season I thought it best to provide you a quick update on our plans, scheduling etc.
We see a significant opportunity (time cycles) from now and in to the late fall 2019 season in Equities, Commodities, Bitcoin etc. The reporting schedule and webinars we are hosting should do well to prepare our members to take full advantage of it.
Reporting Schedule This Week (estimated release dates for premium member reporting, dates are evening of in to next morning).
Aug 18 – VIX (including time cycles)
Aug 18 – SPY (including time cycles)
Aug 18 – Swing Trading (swing trade members will also receive various other time cycle reporting as it comes available).
Aug 18 – Feature Oil Trading Strategy Article
Aug 19 – Crude Oil (EPIC Algorithm regular report)
Aug 19 – Feature Oil Trading Strategy Article
Aug 20 – Bitcoin (including time cycles)
Aug 20 – Feature Oil Trading Strategy Article
Aug 21 – Gold (including time cycles)
Aug 21 – Silver (including time cycles)
Aug 21 – Feature Oil Trading Strategy Article
Aug 22 – DXY US Dollar (including time cycles)
Aug 22 – Feature Oil Trading Strategy Article
The week of Aug 18 and in to fall will also bring various other various swing trade and time cycle reporting to the various services.
Upcoming General Public Free Webinars.
Crude Oil Webinar – Machine Trade Informational. Topics Include; YTD Machine Trade Profit and Loss Performance, Development Process and What Is Planned Going Forward. 7:00 – 7:45 PM EST Sunday August 25. Register by emailing compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.
Crude Oil Webinar – How to Use Our Platform. Oil Trade Alerts, Live Trading Room, Private Discord Server Oil Trade Set Up Guidance, Algorithm Models & Conventional Charting. 8:00 – 8:45 PM EST Sunday August 25. Register by emailing compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.
Upcoming Premium Member Only Webinars.
Crude Oil Trade Strategy Webinar – A Review of Oil Trade Set Ups for The Week. 9:00 – 9:45 PM EST Sunday August 25. Register by emailing compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com. No cost to and access only to premium Crude Oil service members.
Swing Trading Set-Ups Webinar – A Review of Swing Trading Setups for The Upcoming Week (including time cycles). 10:00 – 10:45 PM EST Sunday August 25. Register by emailing compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com. No cost to and access only to premium Swing Trading service members.
Members that cannot attend live will receive a video copy and featured report of the webinar.
Trading Profit and Loss Updates.
2019 Swing Trading Status: Our swing trading platform has had an exceptional year, we’re running our regular 100%+ annual returns (over last 3 years) varied depending on the type/ category of swing trade, Jen has a full report in the works for members to review. As mentioned above, with the large time cycle peaks coming in to the fall we expect a bang up fall swing trade season.
V3 EPIC Oil Algorithm Machine Trade P&L Status: We couldn’t be more pleased with the v3 oil machine trade software. It has been running for about 5 weeks and it is exceeding our expectations. The most encouraging part is that its code is still in its early stages of real-world testing – the projected ROI trajectory is expected to continue to turn-up with no additional downside risk – v3 is an extremely stable machine trading architecture. As we near the 8 week real-world running time-line the mathematical probability of it having any notable issues are near zero (at 5 weeks we’re near there now). It took some time, grit and investment, but we’re there now.
“For Aug 15, 2019 Profit & Loss: Daily +$355 YTD+$9,185 Projected $85,958 or 86% Per Annum. v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Test Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #machinetrading #oiltradealerts”
Password Access to Trading Rooms, Private Alerts, Discord Servers.
We have been slowly changing / updating passwords and access to various services. If you are a premium member and you are locked out of any service you are subscribed to (trading room, alert feed, private server, etc) or do not receive a report that you see posted to main Compound Trading Twitter feed (that you should be receiving), please let us know so we can rectify.
Promotions.
There is a current promotion running for new member trials, receive 50% off first month of any service list price. Use promo code “TRIAL50” when checking out (if you have issue with the promo code email us and we’ll send you another by email). If you have registered recently at full price and did not take advantage of this email Jen compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and she will invoice your next month renewal at 50% off. This is only available to first time subscribers and cannot be used with other discounts.
If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours – it usually books out for the fall so register soon if you’ve been throwing the idea around.
Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and remember, the webinars listed above require you to register in advance by sending us an email of your interest in attending.
In One Hour of Crude Oil Trade Wednesday Afternoon (After EIA Reported Inventories) Price Ran Up 134 Ticks, And We Knew The Bottom.
Below Are Tips for Intra-Day Reversal Trading Strategies and How To Determine Price Targets For Locating Bottom of Day Price.
Nail the bottoms in crude oil and you have the single most profitable strategy there is in trading crude oil. The intra-day reversals and subsequent run up in price move fast. Intra-day reversals can be precisely executed with an extremely high win rate (our v3 EPIC win rate is well over 90%) and you can build a profitable trading career with that one set-up.
The reversal trade in crude oil trade in this report and video is a real-world example from our oil trading room.
The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence from yesterday’s article concludes here also (see below).
We pick up the story in this article with us closing the winning oil short position / sequence from the Tuesday (selling in to the Trump news) and then on Wednesday (after the weekly EIA report) turning our focus toward pin-pointing likely oil trade reversal areas intra-day to possibly catch a bullish run-up trend intra-day after the sell-off.
The strategy worked. We caught the bottom near to the penny and we had the price target for the high of day within pennies also. Execution wasn’t perfect, but we are winning consistently and the v3 software is performing over expectation.
Exactly how we determined the most likely bottom area on the day and high of day price target is in the raw video feed from the live trading room (see below) and in this quick post.
With the limited time I have available to write this article in premarket, I will provide some of the tips you can use to locate bottoms for your daytrading strategies. For more on this subject, refer to the live trading room videos on YouTube and/or other articles we have published on this topic.
If there is one area of crude oil trade we know well, it is how to locate intra-day bottoms (low price of day) in advance to assist with a traders day trade strategy. The v3 EPIC Machine Trade Software has an extremely high success rate in this specific area of oil trade analysis.
When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
Trades and the strategy therein are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by a leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.
First I will share the guidance from the oil trading room server, alert feeds etc and then I’ll give you some pointers on how to locate bottoms in trade.
The raw video from the oil trading room provides significantly more detailed guidance.
Chart from oil trading room below highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.
Chart from oil trading room highlights the alerted close of last short sell position in crude oil for Tuesdays trading session.
Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.
JeremyToday at 6:11 AM Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell Software well green.
Image of oil trading alert private member feed on Twitter that shows covering the last short sell on crude oil trade.
The New Trading Day Starts: Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.
Green arrows on chart are oil contract buys and red arrows sells, white are price targets for low and high alerted prior to trade.
Oil trading room day trades alerted with price targets for reversal at intraday bottom and top.
Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intra-day
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:33 AM Software started buying 54.32’s HF tests It sold in to the 2/10 in to 54.50s, its in a range program now
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 11:56 AM
At this point we’re looking for a 12:45 bottom, time cycle 11:15 – 2:15, trading 54.14 machines are here fyi Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. Trading 54.29. Quoted as FX USOIL WTI Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93
Screen shot image of crude oil trading chat room alerting initial buys at reversal test area, time cycle, price targets for oil intraday
Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:09 PM Long 54.13 1/10 tight stops
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:19 PM Long 2/10 add 53.96, sell 1/10 54.01, hold 2 Sold in to 54.25 hold 0
Gotta teach it to hold some.
Screen image from oil trading room of machine trade software nailing the bottom reversal intraday in crude oil trade and alerts.
Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.
two ticks away hit 53.95 – “Preferred buy price target 12:42:30 EST at 53.93” 2 ticks off price target in that first burst
“Preferred buys 53.93 for 54.93 PT bounce and 55.41 possible. “
Screen image from oil trading room showing first price target previously alerted being hit.
Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 1:50 PM possible channel
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:25 PM right in to top of channel beauty
Guidance in oil trading room lead trader alerting members to watch for a possible channel of trade coming.
Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.
Curt MelonopolyYesterday at 2:36 PM Hit 55.30 dangerously close now to 2nd price target, nice move today on that snap back reversal trade intraday
I will be on break until 6:00 PM, Jeremy will alert any trades, a tad overloaded with paperwork. Have a good one y’all.
Crude oil price then goes on to near the 2nd price target from previous alert. Image of trading room.
So, The Question Then Is, How Did We Nail The Bottom Price On The Day? And How Is It That We Nail That Trade Day After Day With Well Over 90% Win Rate? Below Are My Tips:
What I Can’t Tell You (Top Secret):
We are developing proprietary crude oil order flow AI software platform that is getting really accurate (IDENT). This software runs tandem to the EPIC Oil Trade Machine software that executes the trades. Sovoron then uses that data. Our trading service members and clients of SOVORON receive the benefit but I can’t tell you how it works, ever.
We have been developing algorithmic chart models for crude oil trade on all time-frames for nearly three years now, this helps a lot in determining areas (range) of oil trade and turn-around (reversal, nap-back) trades. The oil algorithmic chart models are available to our trade service members in reports that are regularly distributed.
We have taken the algorithmic chart models and coded them to machine trade software. The software then alerts myself (and team), our oil trading room traders, our trading service members and Sovoron to trades setting up and trade executions. I can’t tell you exactly how the software is coded beyond that, but I can say that it has over 4700 rules. The v3 software is executing a win rate well over 90%. You can learn how to trade on the information it uses by signing on to our newsletters, alerts and/or attend the live trading room.
What I Can Tell You:
Below are just a few tips I can provide with the limited time I have, but I can say that if you study our methods you can duplicate our win rate. We’re still learning and we’re teaching our trading service members and the recently launched AI software to trade oil (the software will obviously be much better than us soon enough), but I think you get the point. There is a process here, you just have to put in the work and learn.
Conventional Crude Oil Charts are critical for your trading strategy. Our software uses them, I (our team) use them and you should be using them daily. All time frames are important so that you know the key areas of support and resistance for your day trading plan. Trend-lines on all times frames should be at your immediate access when trading oil.
Algorithmic Crude Oil Chart Models refine and compliment conventional charting. They help you see what you wouldn’t otherwise be able to see. They also help you know better what the large machine liquidity in the oil markets are likely to do with each support and resistance area. Algorithmic models also provide you with a future forward GPS. For example, you will know where possible channels are before they appear from trade. In summary, algorithmic chart models provide you with the lay of the land – the structure of trade on various time-frames. It is this structure that wide market machine liquidity is programmed to compete within.
When Sizing Your Intra-day Reversal Trade be sure you can release some size almost immediately so that if the trade then goes against you (after the initial spike) then you have some “room” for your stops. In other words, if price spikes 10 ticks after you enter a 3 contract trade then close 1 contract and then if price returns to your buy then decide if you want to release another and then if it goes 10 ticks under your buy release the last. In that scenario you have lost zero. So if you get good at this trade set up then you have a near zero risk trading edge IF YOU DON’T HOLD LOSERS. Where we are working with our software right now is with it holding some as price reversal continues. We have mastered the bottom reversals and now we’re training the software to hold some size and ride some profit. It’s complicated to explain but I’m sure you get the point.
Technically watch for increasing volume at possible lows. Know your support and resistance on every time frame, your trend lines are key as are algorithmic chart model structures. Get to know your important times of day, times of week, time-cycles, events etc. Also, if you can enter after a flash down (a quick spike down in to your intended support) this is best. This allows for some range on the snap-back reversal and if the trade fails you can exit.
And finally, DO NOT HOLD BAGS. Losing trades can be tough to recover. Our v3 software may hold some (very small) but only because it can locate the next bottom and hit it long and have a small loser right side up very quickly. If intra-day trade leaves the intra-day structure our v3 software will close the small position for a loss. This by the way is its edge and the primary reason the v3 EPIC Oil Trading Machine Software very rarely loses a trade.
Bottom Line:
We obviously know how to locate intra-day bottoms in oil price and most often also tops (although top price of day targets are more difficult as is trading oil short from the top – bottom reversals are much easier to trade). The everyday oil trader can learn our methods and find a high win rate with an excellent ROI. Reviewing our videos on YouTube, reviewing our written blog posts and signing on with us will go a long way to you learning this trading edge. This becomes a really easy trading strategy when you have done your study, have the right indicators in front of you when trading, receive some experienced guidance when needed and have our alerts / guidance.
As our software better learns how to hold profits and trail out of the intra-day reversal trades the win rate will remain the same but the ROI of the software graph will likely go parabolic from about 90% per annum (see chart) to a vertical ROI graph – we aren’t far away from this now.
The majority (we estimate now to be close to 90%) of order flow in the oil markets is now machine traded, if you aren’t at least learning how they trade then you’re just not awake to the profitable world it offers.Between 2012 and 2016, almost two-thirds of crude oil contracts traded on CME’s futures exchange were automated, up from 54 per cent, according to a 2017 study by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. https://www.ft.com/content/8cc7f5d4-59ca-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0
Dig in to the links below at the bottom of this article if you want to investigate how our development process can help you profit in the oil trading markets.
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole day-trading session (we run the live video feed from 7am to 5pm EST). To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his/her thinking as he/she and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time stamp on the oil trade alert, chart, trading room screen capture image etc in this or any other report and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
On Wednesday I was fairly active on mic around trading times with trade set ups and execution of trades.
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
Selling Against An Intra-Day Bullish Break-out In Crude Oil Is Difficult. Here’s How We Day Short-Sold The Trump – China Break-Out News Yesterday.
The trade sequence in this report is a real-world example from our oil trading room. The intra-day oil futures short selling strategy / sequence as of the time of writing this report is not complete so there will be a Part 2 to this post.
Tuesday was a bullish break-out day for crude oil markets. Trump messaged to the world that some tariffs would be delayed and this sent oil soaring in price intra-day.
Oil prices continued to rally on Tuesday, this time on reports that the United States has decided to delay the next round of tariffs that were to be imposed on Chinese goods.
The delay gives hope to a skittish market that the trade war really won’t go on forever.
For WTI, oil prices had climbed 4.30% by 12:36pm EDT to trade at $57.29. Brent Crude was trading up even more at 4.70%, at $61.32—resuming its over $60 per barrel that it had fallen under during the first week of August as the trade war stoked fears of souring oil demand growth.
In addition to the tariff delay, which will now go into force on December 15, the United States will also be taking some of the items on that tariff list off completely, according to its newest policy document published on the Office of the United States Trade Representative website. While the list hasn’t been made public, it will include items that will be removed “based on health, safety, national security, and other factors”.
When the intra-day price in the bullish break-out (on Trump news) was over-extended technically on charts and trade was starting to get in to overhead supply (order-flow), we began a short selling sequence.
Below is the first part of this article because (as I mentioned above) the short selling sequence is still in play and includes a significant number of trade executions.
So for today’s article I will include a chart that shows / maps out each trade execution as I and the v3 EPIC machine trading software executed the trades, the raw footage from the oil trading room and some miscellaneous charting. Then in Part 2 of this article (when the trade sequence is complete) I will explain each trade execution in detail so that it may help you with your crude oil day trading strategies.
When we alert 1/10 that means (for example) on an account of 100,000.00 that would normally execute a trade size of maximum 10 contracts, 1/10 size then represents 1 contract. We use a 100k account for our sample set for simplicity.
Trades are alerted to a live trading room by voice (by leader trader) and published as time allows to an oil trading alert feed on Twitter and in Discord private member server.
As mentioned above, Tuesday’s daytrading session in crude oil futures was a short selling strategy in to a spike in price that was over extended technically.
Below is a chart that shows / maps each location of trade (red are the short selling trades and green are the buy or cover trades, each arrow is 1/10 size). Part 2 of this article will be published tomorrow when this sequence is complete.
At time of writing we are green (positive, profitable) in the trade sequence and it will be interesting to see how it completes.
The short selling sequence below is a protocol within the v3 EPIC Crude Oil Machine Trading Software code.
First a few screen capture images from the private oil chat server and associated alerts and charts and then the main chart showing location of each trade is below that.
Below is an image screen shot from the private member oil trading server of the first trade alerts on the day.
Oil day trades started here for the day – screen capture from the oil trading room chat server. First oil trade alerts on day.
And an image of the chat oil room server showing charts of alerted trades etc.
Oil trading room chat server showing charting guidance and alerting where each trade execution is located on chart.
The next set of oil trade alerts and charting to show where each short sell trade is and covering of trades as sequence progresses.
More guidance and charting showing oil trade alert locations on charting and the daytrade session is completing.
As the evening futures session starts more short selling of oil in this time frame starts, alerts on screen.
Below is a one minute chart from oil trading room that shows all the crude oil futures buy and selling of contracts in the short bias sequence.
Red arrows are short selling and green arrows are buys / cover trades. My apologies for the noisy chart but this is my personal work chart I use for working with the developers for the machine trade side of our work.
The bottom right arrow (green) is the most recent cover buy from the oil trade alerts while I write this article in premarket.
Chart from oil trading room trade alerts that shows each buy and sell alert in crude oil in short selling sequence.
And below is a screen shot of most recent oil trade alert from Jeremy stating that the software covered the last of the short selling contracts but is still in a short bias sequence.
Also Jeremy notes that the machine trade software (and myself with manual trade execution) are now on profitable side of the trade sequence, which isn’t bad performance for the v3 software that is less than 6 weeks old and just ran its first larger short selling sequence in to over extended intra-day trading range on the Trump news. So I’m very satisfied because I would have assumed this would be a red or loss day on first go round in this specific new sequence.
Each time the software encounters a similar set-up it will execute for a better ROI, this is the power of machine trading.
The software (v3 EPIC Oil Machine Trade Software) has had 1 red day for 0.2% draw down since it was launched – it has been running for about 5 weeks. It has had a few trade sequences that it was in the red during the sequence (such as this) but has always come up profitable on the day it completes a sequence (with the one exception).
The key with the v3 vs v4 is that the v3 software only holds at most 1/10 size in to an intra-day range (it will hold more on a high frequency very short term basis) and v4 would hold easily 3/10 or more on a much wider range of trade – this allowed for significant volatility in profit and loss.
The smaller holds in to pressure with v3 allows for a projected loss day of 1 in 10 estimated to be equal to the average win day – excellent, balance risk-reward threshold, especially if it can do 80% or more annual returns (which appears to be the case). The smaller holds also allows for v3 to maneuver easier when off-side intra-day because it always has ample “dry powder” to work with.
JeremyToday at 6:11 AM Buy / cover 1/10 56.18 hold 0 but still in sequence to sell Software well green. If the software ends the sequence and/or flips to a buy sequence will advise, but at this point it is still short sequence.
Oil trade alert to cover short while I am writing this article about the day trade sequence.
I will explain each trade execution you see in the chart above in a future post when this trade sequence is complete, which I expect will occur today prior to the EIA report at 10:30.
Live Oil Trading Room Video.
Please note: The video below is a raw feed only of the oil trading room for the whole daytrading session. To listen to comments by the lead trader that contain specifics to his thinking as he and/or the software are trading and sending out alerts, look at the time of the oil trade alert and correlate that to the video and go to that part of the video.
On Tuesday, in the video below, I wasn’t providing real in depth trade guidance verbally to the room like I normally attempt to do, I was alerting the trades however. I was busy with our developers because this set-up was new to the v3 machine trade code (each new set-up in oil trade requires “teaching” of the software).
If you are struggling with your trading and need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
Trading Intra-Day Range Can Be A Profitable Day Trading Strategy For Oil Traders.
Below is a real world example from our oil trading room last Thursday that highlights trade of the important intra-day trading range (in this instance the range of trade is a technical trading box structure).
Today (Monday) there were no trades in the trading room so I am going back a few market days and using it for our example.
The image below (a screen capture) from the oil trading room shows oil trading within a chart trade box – a range of trade (see yellow box on chart) on the day.
This post is intended to bring to the forefront of the oil traders mind a clear image example of an intra-day trading range structure and how to day trade that range.
Learning how to trade the intra-day range of crude oil is a vital area of study for anyone that wants to be consistently profitable in this game.
The biggest challenge is identifying the range and then once identified execution of your trades becomes easier. Identifying a range is not easy before trade has happened or even during trade – it is much easier to identify after the fact (after trade has clearly drawn in the lines on the chart so to speak).
In short, we traded successfully on Thursday but it was a bit choppy. Both I with manual executed trades and the machine trading software were green on the day.
Crude Oil Chart Showing Trading Box Intra Day Range of Trade – Screen Image from Oil Trading Room
Lead Trader Guidance in Private Member Server, Oil Trading Broadcast Room and to Alert Feeds.
In Regular US Market Premarket I Provided Range Trade Guidance to our Oil Trading Chat Room Attendees (a private member Discord server for sharing charts etc), to the Live Oil Trading Broadcast Room (this is where I trade live and broadcast trades over a mic) and to the Private Member Twitter Oil Alert Feed with a Daily Chart.
The buy triggers on watch I am sharing with the day traders are on various chart model time frames, the 1 minute, 5 minute, 30 minute, and Daily charts.
This article is not specifically about various support buy triggers on different chart model time-frames as described in this guidance, however, it is part of the intra day set up in crude oil trade and vital to the architecture of our v3 software and ROI (and vital to the daytrader) so I include these details in this article.
For those really wanting to dig in to how we find support areas on the charting simply look at the time stamp on the chart image captures in any of these articles and correlate that time with the raw oil trading room video feed included in these articles and listen to what the lead trader (in this instance myself) is saying about the set up.
There were specific trend lines on the daily chart that crude oil was respecting, that we had communicated to our members about prior that was my primary watch going in to the regular US market day.
Curt MelonopolyLast Thursday at 9:08 AM Today’s range per daily chart on recent report (TL’s), upside 53.86, downside 50.40, trading 52.44, pivot in 52.11 range. Yesterday’s 52.11 PT easily hit (from trading room)
In Regular US Market Premarket I Provided Range Trade Guidance to our Oil Trading Chat Room with a Daily Chart
As trade progresses I am starting to share preferred buy triggers to the oil trading room and on alert feeds.
The image below from our oil trade chat room highlights buy triggers on the 5 minute algorithmic chart model.
Details of this set up and how we determine the areas of support for possible triggers are discussed on the raw video feed from the oil trading room below. We previously covered this in some detail in other articles available here “Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil” and will cover intra-day support areas for buy triggers in greater detail in future posts.
As trade progresses I am starting to share preferred buy triggers to the oil trading room and on alert feeds.
I Also Outline in Detail to Oil Trading Room Attendees Support Buy Triggers on Watch on the 1 Minute Oil Daytrading Chart Time-Frame.
I Also Outline in Detail to Oil Trading Room Attendees Support Buy Triggers on Watch on the 1 Minute Oil Daytrading Chart
Oil machine trade buy trigger on watch shared alerted to oil trading room for the daytraders information- screen image below. The image below is showing the EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Model.
Oil machine trade buy trigger on watch shared alerted to oil trading room for the daytraders information.
Oil Trade Example – Lessons Learned.
I will state that before I explain as best as possible below in writing and using screen shot images from the private member Discord chat server, oil trading room and oil alert feed that if you are serious about learning how we trade to a win rate higher than 90% that I highly recommend investing the time to match the time stamps you see on the images in these articles to the time of day on the raw oil trading room video and listen to the set up as explained over the mic.
I know that we are all busy, but this is the best way to really learn what we are doing and why our win rate is so high with the v3 oil daytrading software. Alternatively you could register for private coaching lessons as this would be more time efficient but more expensive also.
The challenge with these reports is that they are time intensive to reconcile, the screen shot images, the details, reviewing the videos and P&L’s, then explaining etc takes a lot of time so there is considerable information not included in these articles that you would otherwise garner if you had the time available to review the raw trading room footage – but I get it, it is a slow process and life is busy for most of us.
First trade of the day in oil trading room alerted was a short at 52.75 and we close soon thereafter at .72 for a time cycle decision. The time cycle decision we won’t get in to in this article (time cycles are advanced technical indicators we will cover at a later date). What is most specific to this article is why we shorted at 52.75. First see the alert below and then we’ll look at the chart range structure.
First trade of the day in oil trading room alerted was a short at 52.75 and we close soon thereafter at .72 for a time cycle decision.
Screen capture image of live oil trading room, 30 minute oil chart trend line resistance for crude oil day trade alert short.
The image below from the oil trading room at 11:41 shows that intra-day oil was trading in to structural resistance trend line on the 30 minute EPIC Oil Algorithm Chart Model. This is a significant sell signal. We closed shortly thereafter because there was an intraday time cycle decision coming on the 5 minute model (again, time cycles we will cover in a later article) and you can always re-enter a trade.
Screen capture image of live oil trading room, 30 minute oil chart trend line resistance for crude oil day trade alert short.
Image from oil chat room server showing discussion confirming that oil price did in fact trade down but buys were coming in.
So in short, at 12:24 (after the time cycle decision on the 5 minute chart) trade did respect the 30 minute larger chart structure resistance trend line and was in fact trading down intra-day. The chart image in the example below is the one minute chart.
So if trade was in fact selling off intra-day then why did we not re-enter short?
This is also explained below, the bulls were still buying at each support at this time in the day. Our software is programmed to trade and alert the most probable wins only. The v3 win rate is well over 90% for this reason. So often the trade set up will play out as expected but I myself and/or the software may not alert a trade because it isn’t a premium trade with a super high probability of a win.
In this instance, trade then started to really sell of on a short time frame and within a small structure. So the trade set-up worked, but we did not re-enter after the time cycle decision at 12:00.
But what we did do is then alert a new buy signal approaching on a time cycle decision…
Image from oil chat room server showing discussion confirming that oil price did in fact trade down but buys were coming in.
Alerting our members in oil trading room and on alert feeds that a buy signal on timing is approaching and the initial buys shown.
You can see on the one minute daytrading chart model below the green arrows are the buys and the red selling locations from the alerted oil trade.
You will notice that we alerted our members 4 minutes in advance of the timing so they could be ready.
This alert typically goes to the private member Twitter feed, the Discord Private Server (shown below) and in to the Live Trading room (as time allows for each – this can be difficult at times so we do our best, obviously the live mic trading in the oil trading room is best but the alert feeds do receive about 80% or more of our trade set-ups alerted).
We then communicate on mic verbally in the oil trading room the complete set up as time allows. This may include various charting, order flow detail etc.
The trade size was 2/10 (so this means that with an account that is approximately 100k in size or would trade approximately 10 contracts at max this would be a 2 contract long daytrade in crude oil futures).
We alerted that we were 2 contracts in size long (assuming a 100k account size for simplicity) at 52.56 on FX USOIL WTI charting (we use this as a single source for various traders using various instruments).
We then sold 1 contract at 52.65 and held one contract long at this point (alert is shown in screen capture below).
Alerting our members in oil trading room and on alert feeds that a buy signal on timing is approaching and the initial buys shown.
The screen capture image below is the actual Twitter Crude Oil Alert Feed that shows the daytrading alerts at this time of day.
This screen capture image is the actual Twitter Crude Oil Alert Feed that shows the daytrading alerts at this time of day.
At this point, if you are following along and really in it here, you may wonder why we executed a trade long when the price of oil was relatively close to the resistance on the daily range?
The answer is simple, but more detailed than I can get in to here (here again review of raw trading room footage is key).
Nevertheless, basically the reasons were that trade intra-day was bullish and a break out was increasingly more probable, our order flow software had identified considerable progressive buy side accumulation (hence why we knew a break out was coming – see the previous post for more detail) and the trade itself was taken at a clear support area of our one minute day-trading chart model with progressive increasing buy side order flow.
See the screen capture below from our trading room that shows the support area on the one minute daytrading chart that triggered (in part) the long trade. You will also notice that we then alerted to the members that there was a sell signal time cycle decision approaching.
Chart from oil trading room shows 1 minute daytrading chart support for the buy alert and then the upcoming sell decision
Next, as you will see below, the real day trading action started. Reviewing just the alerts (as seen below) is not the best way to study this, the best way is to listen to the video raw feed from the trading room. Again, I get it if you don’t have time.
During intraday trade we alert what we can but we often go in to great detail in the live trading room for the set ups as they are progressing.
In this specific instance what was happening was that there was an accumulation of bulls starting to buy to force a break out and volatility was starting. Most of our members understand where the resistance areas are so it is easier for them to see that a resistance is coming and would understand the alerts below (the reasoning) than a casual observer.
Anyway, what was happening is a possible run for a break out, but in that instance it is possible for the break out to fail a number of times before it may succeed, so what you see below is our oil trading machine software and myself (manually executing oil daytrades) trading with price action and order flow relative to resistance areas on the chart (also taking in to consideration time cycles etc).
In short, what occurred as shown below in the alerts is that we reversed the long trade short and then reversed again long and added to the long trade as the buy side order flow took over the short sellers in intra-day crude oil trade.
You will see notes from the oil trading room below that reference what time stamps one should refer to on the recorded trading room raw footage to study out how we did what we did. It was a successful day of trading and it was not a beginner trading environment. But what I can say is that our members have the advantage of simply executing along with us and / or our machine software trading it.
Oil trade alerts to members in trading room and alert feed of reversals and high frequency pivot decisions intraday
And here the daytrading session is coming near to a close and the oil trade alert goes out to liquidate the last of the long trade size in to resistance on one minute chart and range intraday – after all, if price breaches the resistance shown below on the two models (the one minute chart and 30 minute chart) then you can always re enter the trade right?
Oil trade alert to liquidate the last of the long trade size in to resistance on one minute chart and range intraday.
Some Important Final Thoughts.
There are many, many more lessons to learn about how this was done than what is included in this article. Again, if you’re serious about study, defer to the live trading room raw feed video below.
The v3 software was only rebooted a few days before this trading session…. think “re-birth”, it was in its early learning process and a week later would have executed this set up with far greater precision. But that is the nature of machine trade development. It did well, but it will do so much better within days – it doesn’t take long for the learning curve to inflect vertical.
The whole trading range rule set on the day can be summarized in much simpler form by simply saying that once you have identified an intra-day range of trade you simply buy the bottoms and sell the tops. Release size at various resistance decisions and DO NOT HOLD LOSERS. The challenge of course is that it isn’t quite that easy – it is much easier to see an intraday structure on a chart after the fact than it is to see the range structure before or during trade within that structure. Back seat drivers need not comment, try driving it first. After the fact you get to see the map – that’s easy.
Live Oil Trading Room Video
If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
The First In A New Article Series Intended to Simplify What We Have Learned For The Oil Trader To Use as Actionable Strategies to Increase Win Rate and ROI When Manually Executing Crude Oil Trades.
For Near 3 Years Now We Have Transparently Shared Our Successes and Failures in the Development of Oil Machine Trading Software.
First, For The Benefit of a Wider Than Normal Audience That This Article Is Being Transmitted To, Allow Me To Share Some of Our History.
Understanding a. Where We Have Come From, b. Where We Are Now and c. Where We Are Going Next is Important. Then We’ll Get In To The First Oil Trading Strategy Article.
A. A Brief History of Where We Come From.
As Stated, For Near 3 Years Now We Shared Our Trading and Software Development Journey Real-Time With Our Crude Oil Trading Community (in a Live Trading Room). We Recorded Live Every Minute Of Our Trading and We Also Endeavored to Share Our Findings Via Various Blog Articles, Alerts, Webinars, Coaching and Videos.
Sharing The Details of Our Journey Was Not Easy. It Was Difficult To Find Time to Reconcile Findings In Such a Way That Would Would Be Easily Transferable to Our Community. The Day-to-Day Trading Live in The Room, Alerting Trades, Coding Software, Writing Articles, Coaching etc all Real-Time While in Our Own Discovery Process Was… Lets Just Say A Tad Crazy.
It Also Wasn’t Easy To Share What We Were Learning in a Way That Would Be Easily Understood and Actionable For Our Clients, Not To Mention Knowing When The Next Phase in Development Would Be Successful or Challenging (Having Us Profitable Or Not).
We Set Out In The Beginning To Be Transparent and We Have Held to That Mandate All the Way Through The Process.
And Now, We Know What Works and Does Not Work And We Begin a Real Journey to Share Our Findings. The Goal is to Share This in the Most Succinct and Simple Way Possible – to Make our Findings “Actionable” For The Average Trader.
Our Story Reveals Secrets Not Commonly Available That Can Help Day Traders Form Proper, Simple, Structured Oil Trading Strategies That Will Increase Your Win Rate, Returns and Lower Risk.
We are Acutely Aware There Are Hundreds of Oil Trading Strategies That Succeed or Fail. The Strategies We Will Share Are Structural in Nature. In Other Words, The Lessons We Learned About The Structure Of Oil Trade and Order Flow Will Help With Any Other Oil Trading Strategies You Are Employing.
Here in The First Article of Its Kind and With a Series of Near Future Planned Informational Articles, Webinars and Select Media Broadcasts, We Endeavor to Summarize and Simplify The Most Important Takeaways for You, The Oil Trader.
B. Where We Are Now.
Recently, we launched real-world testing of version 4 EPIC oil trading software (after running versions 1, 2 and 3 successfully) only to have it (v4) exemplify (once again) the volatility that new version machine trade software deployment encounters.
So needless to say, we were excited about the “next”.
But as we’ve learned over and over again… the “next” can challenge comfort zones in many ways – you could refer to this as our trading risk management threshold – software development and deployment style.
Deployment of version 4 brought volatility that once again exceeded our “risk threshold”. In short, “real world testing” is more about testing our human “risk threshold” or comfort level than it is about whether the software would eventually perform as planned, after all, it does have to be “birthed” and then “learn” and then fly.
But we just weren’t “comfortable” with having to endure the process of the machine software known as version 4 to “learn” and become profitable. Version 4 was a much more aggressive architecture than version 3. So anyway, in short, we abandoned version 4 and returned to the proven version 3. We won’t be returning to v4.
So on Monday August 5, 2019 at 11:00 PM EST we announced the return to v3 and it was “re-born”. It took a day for it to run its start up systems and then started firing trades and has been again profitable since.
“For Aug 9, 2019: v3 Profit & Loss: Daily +$995 YTD +$8,526 Projected $94,306 or 94% Per Annum. Oil Machine Trade 100k Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO #MachineTrading #OilTradeAlerts.”
The first day was a quiet day for the v3 software reboot – the action started to come online in day two.
Below, and in near-future articles is where we pick up the story and we will use real-world trading in the live oil trading room to explain as clearly and simply as possible strategies oil day traders can employ to compete with the best of the best.
Each day I will take the oil trading action from the day in the oil trading room and oil trading alerts and post an article specific to the rules the software used to execute the trades with simplicity top of mind when writing the articles.
Traders that study these articles will have the benefit of video recordings of our traders in the oil trading room describing the trades we are manually executing to assist the software developers in “tweaking” the version 3 EPIC software.
The articles will also include various charting (conventional and algorithmic), oil trade chat room trade set up guidance notes from our traders, various articles, informational webinars, select media broadcasts and much more. Some of which will be made available to the general public and some behind our pay wall (subscriber premium material).
When we complete this informational series of articles we will have completed our oil trading development mandates and then go on to the next and the next (in terms of our wider development goals)…
For now, our goal here is to publish approximately one oil trading article per day with video, host one public informational webinar per week (email us at compoundtradingofficial.com to register for the next webinar), post continued v3 daily P&Ls to our social feeds, and have documented all actionable trade strategies within 60 days.
As stated above, much of this will be public facing and yet other information (the more proprietary) will be made available only to our premium subscribers .
Now, Lets Get to The First Lesson in Oil Trade Strategies – Trading With Version 3 With The Lead Trader in The Live Oil Trading Room.
Each article will include at least one lesson (or at least one rule that is included in the software trading rule set).
This first article will be from the oil trading room last Friday, and I will try to catch up the other days from last week at some point soon and as of Monday I’ll be posting each trading day’s action daily.
Here’s how our trading day on Friday went down;
Trading Crude Oil Break Outs.
Trading break-outs (break-ups & break-downs) outside of the most recent trading range is not easy. The reason is simple, you don’t know where the new range of trade will be and you don’t know if it is a true beak-out that will hold.
Our rule set has much more predictable trading set-ups to trade than what we seen on Friday, but lets start here because this was the most recent trading day and future posts will highlight the more predictable set-ups.
All our trades on Friday were winners, I think the v3 software has won every trade since it was rebooted last week and thus far I think it has only had one red day (for 0.02% draw-down).
Trade Sizing, Range Of Trade, Holds & Stops.
Under our v3 protocol, breaks in the price of oil to the current range are traded lightly in terms of sizing and any trade positions are held with tight stops.
In other words, until the new trading range develops, size of trade is to remain small and stop orders need to be considerably rigid because if the break up or down in price does not hold and form a new trading range you do not want to be left holding the bag (a losing position).
If you are caught holding a bag it is important for it to be a small size bag. Our v3 protocol mitigates this also with the ability to determine intra-day bottoms and size in to the next trade to relieve the small losing position when needed. But this is always a very small position if held and is only held intra-day.
In our general informational material about our v3 software vs. v4 this is one of the primary differences in architecture. Version 4 rule-set had holds on a much wider range (you could say a swing trading range) and v3 only holds within the intra-day range as verified by recent trade.
Please Note: When I state absolutes like “v3 only holds” as above, be sure to consider that our software has over 4400 rules that are weighed against each other, so absolutes are not reality, but for the simplicity of our goal here I will often explain rules of trade as absolute.
If you focus on trading range you will find it much more predictable than trading break-outs and break-down in price.
Anyway, before the break-out occurred on Friday we were posting guidance to the oil trade chat room server on Discord and the private member twitter alert feed.
We were also in the live oil trading room stating that trade was likely to break out Friday.
We also provided various immediately applicable guidance to our members specific to resistance and support on the most applicable time frames referencing chart models that our members could refer to.
Below is the morning trading guidance we posted to the crude oil chat room server (Discord private server is used for alerts service along with Twitter feed, alerts are available as a stand alone service or within the bundle with reports and oil trading room access).
The most applicable charting in this instance were the 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute and daily algorithmic chart models.
Note: By “most applicable” I am saying that these particular charts were recently being respected most, by oil trade action, of the various models available. We have numerous algorithmic chart models and conventional charts provided in reporting to members to draw on when providing guidance for their daily trading strategy. Our job is to refer to those that which recent oil trade action has most responded to (or price has respected support and resistance areas on the charts).
Also specifically to the information below, the preferred buy triggers are areas of support that provide high probability for bounce trades intra-day should price actually not break-out. A significant part of the v3 trading rules applies to key areas of support intra-day that liquidity in oil markets that are machine traded are most likely to trigger large buy programs to.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:10 AM Preferred buys on 15 min model; 51.83, 52.02, 52.29, 52.78 trading 53.11 intra day Preferred buys on EPIC 30 min model; 51.88, 52.49, 52.74. Main resistance 53.65, 54.31, 54.43
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 8:25 AM Top of range on daily 53.94 (uptrending TL on model) if held, over that is break-out / divergent. Trading 53.21. Order flow says it can happen. Trading 53.24. Preferred buy trigger on 5 min model. 52.70 9:30 AM at inflection of time cycle running 8:00 AM – 11:00 AM
Crude Oil Trading Chat Room – Lead Traders Provide Technical Guidance for the Members in Advance of Trading Day
JeremyLast Friday at 8:38 AM Order flow and volume since Thurs / internals say break to upside probable.
Continued guidance provided to members in oil trading room – crude oil resistance on daily chart – range of trade
First Oil Trade of the Day – Break Out Trade, A Quick Bullish Trade to Range of 1 Minute Chart Model
Normally we can alert our trades to the alert feeds on Twitter and Discord, but on Friday we were only alerting live in the main oil trading room because trade action and the break out were developing very quickly and there was no time to type the alerts.
Now I will point out quick I sometimes try and do my part on my public facing Twitter feed, I did warn the shorts the night prior of this action setting up because we knew there was accumulation in order flow that started the day prior.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 9:07 AM Software got that with 1/10 only now out happened too fast to alert typing, was alerted in live room cradle of the quad
The first oil trade of the day was in regular US market premarket, 1 min and daily charting shows the trade range.
Curt MelonopolyLast Friday at 9:35 AM @Jen 54.32 – 54.48 1/10 traded thanks in trading room yes
Below is the screen capture from the oil chat room showing the Daily Chart Model resistance that trade hit and the cradle of the EPIC Oil Algorithm resistance that trade hit.
Oil algorithmic charting showing the range of trade for the premarket trade – daily and 30 min charts in oil chat room.
Oil algorithmic charting showing the range of trade for the premarket trade – daily and 30 min charts in oil chat room
Lessons From Oil Trade #1 (Break-Out) in Oil Trading Room:
Trade Size – This is a break out trade so trade size was 1/10 size. The v3 protocol is small like this, version 4 would have sized this trade larger.
One Minute Model Structured Range, Upside Resistance Broke – Trade was executed long above the one minute model support / resistance and trade was closed as the next resistance on the one minute model was hit. This was also recent intra-day break of trading range – THIS IS IMPORTANT. Also, if you were confident in the new range holding you could size 2/10 or more and release some at top of one minute trading range and hold some to see if the one minute support held on pull back. Our v3 software will do this if order flow shows a high probability and low risk to such.
Resistance on Chart Models – A key resistance on the EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm chart model was hit as was the trading resistance on the daily chart. This provided further reason to exit or trim the long trade.
Time of Day, Premarket, Momentum – Look at the time of day of the trade. Premarket trade action is critical to watch for a general direction in to regular US market open. Also important are the key times, in premarket the 15 minute and 30 minute candles are critical. This was a 9:00 AM 30 minute candle momentum trade.
Live Oil Trading Room Video
On the live oil trading room video the alert for oil trade #1 on the day starts at 1:22:22 on the video timer and at 8:59 AM EST on the time at bottom right of screen with a notice to live trading room that positive order flow indicates a long trade break out set-up building. Over the next few minutes the trigger is activated (I’m concerned at this point about getting too many traders thinking to bullish because break outs are tough, however, I do announce the long trade at 1/10 size). Price target on the day 53.87 is discussed, trading 53.11 at this point of trade in live oil trading room.
You can see on the trading room video the price of oil come off to the 5 min model support and bounce (typical right before a break our for price to come off and then go).
At about 1:30:00 on the video you will see price pressing the resistance on the next upside trading quadrant on the EPIC Oil Algorithm model.
Lessons From Trade # 2 in Break Out.
At approximately 1:57:30 on the video timer we’re executing long again at 54.32 – 54.48.
Continuation, Intra-day Trend/Strength – There was continuation in the break out.
Resistance Breaks – Price was up over 1 minute range resistance for the long. Price was up over the 30 minute range resistance, and the horizontal historical resistance (yellow).
Close Trade at Range Resistance, You Can Always Re-Enter if Price Continues Bullish – Trade was closed as price entered resistance on the 30 minute model.
Break Out Trade Size Should Be Small – Trade was small at 1/10 size because this is a break out and there is no guarantee the intra-day range developing would hold. Larger size in more appropriate in predictable range trading intra-day.
Lessons From Trade # 3 in Break Out.
At about 3:40:40 on the video we have triggered a trade in $CL_F long 1/10 at 54.31. Here again with tight stops pending order flow.
This was a high frequency order flow battle area intra-day in the break-out area of oil trade in the markets on the day
The time cycles intra day had us expecting more pressure on price that did not occur so when the HFT’s in the market started to trade it stronger we entered with them. This is not a set up that will help the every day oil trader to a great degree unless you were in the trading room with us and understood every detail of the set up as described, not a trade for the beginner.
It was a winning trade, but not the easiest. Most day trades with oil break outs are not what I would describe as easy. At issue, again, is that you don’t want to get caught holding a bag in a failed break out.
The video does go through various other more advanced signals we use as the trade of oil progresses intra-day.
At 3:35:27 on the video you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.
Trading Rule-Set Lessons:
Positive Order Flow – Buy side order flow started strong as price entered the range of the 1 minute model support (the range is marked with blue/red/white horizontal lines clustered). We wanted a buy trigger lower but considering the bullish action on the day this was the reversal point.
Double Bottom Support – Buy side order flow started strong as price entered the double bottom intra-day range.
Progressive Increasing Volume – Progressive volume was obvious.
Close at Resistance – At 4:00:50 approximately on video recorder timer we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance. The timing was perfect for exit also based on intra-day time cycle frequencies (intra-day time cycle frequencies as it relates to trading this day are not what I will explain in this post, in short that specific discipline in our rule-set takes considerable experience). Nevertheless, clear resistance was hit and on the video you will hear me count down to the time cycle completion and a perfect hit to resistance and exit of the long trade.
On the video at 3:35:27 you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.
On the video you can see buys come in to intra-day crude oil trade in the trading room and the reversal starts.
Screen shot below of oil trading room live trade alert – we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance.
Oil trading room live trade alert – we close the long trade at resistance on the one minute oil model at the trendline resistance.
There were other miscellaneous trades on the day (all winners) but considering the complexity of signals on this day (considering it was a break out early structure) I think I will leave it there. I would rather focus these posts on the most predictable and easily executable trades for our oil traders to learn.
The next post I will do tomorrow (Monday) evening after we’re done trading for the day.
If you need some trade coaching go to our website and register for a minimum 3 hours.
Email me as needed compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and remember that I am doing an oil trading information webinar once a week for now on (covering our software status and trading techniques) so email me if you would like to attend this next one – you will need a special link and access code to attend.
Since the end of December when the price of nearby NYMEX crude oil futures fell to a low at $42.36 per barrel, the price recovered to $66.60 in April and fell to a low at $50.52 last week. At $54.50 on the nearby September NYMEX crude oil futures contract on August 9, the price is at the midpoint of the trading range since December 2018. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284072-crude-oil-monkey-middle
Further Learning:
Learning to Trade Crude Oil is Like No Other. At this link you will find select articles from our oil traders real life day-to-day experience in our oil trading room. Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil
