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Below You Will Find Proprietary Oil Trading Signals Not Available Elsewhere. 

When Crude Oil Starts Selling Off Intra-Day Volatility Increases Fast. Knowing Where and Having the Signals for Support and Resistance On The One Minute Chart Will Help Your Trading Strategy.

If you day-trade crude oil futures contracts (or if you are learning how to day trade crude oil) the chart models and signals below will help you understand the structure of trade on intra-day charting (like using a GPS or a map).

The trade signals provided below will increase your trading win rate and ROI on each trade (as you learn to trade the set-ups or strategies).

We can also help you with confirming that the trend is actually bearish (selling in downtrend) and when price is likely to reverse intra-day and oil trade is likely to turn bullish. 

This is part one of a two part post (part one is public and part two is premium member only).

How Oil Sells Off Intra-day on Stairs to Support Floors Down.

The structure of oil sell-offs is not the same as when oil trades up. When crude oil trade is bearish intra-day you will find that it has specific areas of support / floors (this is also true when price is bullish but the structure or steps of trade are different).

When oil is trading down the price will often quickly drop to the next support and will then hang around for sometime and possibly test resistance areas for a possible reversal. When the reversal doesn’t happen or work then price drops quickly to the next floor of support.

The price of oil drops quickly to support and then the bulls will try and trade price back up (along with a certain amount of the shorts covering short positions) for a snap back or price reversal trade. At each support you will find this process occurring.

The more support there is on the charting (on various chart time-frames) the more likely a snap-back trade will occur (price reverses intra-day). This is why we have algorithmic models and conventional charting for all time frames that we use in the oil trading room, in member reporting and coded in to our machine trading software.

The goal is to know where each support and resistance point is on the charting so that you can develop a trading strategy for intra day moves in oil price.  

When you know where the support and resistance is you can then day trade the price of oil with more perspective or clarity.

Before you can learn how to trade a financial instrument (such as crude oil futures contracts) it is important to know the structure of the instrument (as it applies to the charting on various time-frames).

Once you know the structure (the playing field or like I refer to it as a GPS or map) then you need to learn how to trade that specific structure (this is where your personal trading style and strategies come in to play).

Knowing where support and resistance is on the charting allows you to set stops properly, it also helps you with sizing the number of contracts you are trading (trimming and adding to your trade size) and more.

There are two reasons we know the chart structure in the trade of oil (every financial instrument has a structure – like your DNA or the rings on a tree).

One reason is that we construct algorithmic charting models and the other is that we are coding for machine trade of oil. Both reasons require us to back test our charting. It isn’t enough to chart conventional trend-lines (or whatever it is you are charting) and it isn’t enough to design an algorithmic chart model – the assumptions for consideration in trade, such as support and resistances areas, need to be back tested so that you have a quantifiable high probability of success.

You need to know that your assumptions provide highly probable set-ups (trade signals) to provide you a trading edge.

When we chart for the purpose of trading signals we first start with conventional charting (on all time frames) and then move to charting algorithmic models of highly probable areas of support and resistance of trade (visual representation of important structure points of the charting) and then we move to coding what we know to be most probable areas of support and resistance in trade. I should note for completeness that our models provide much more than support and resistance, there are other important trade signals such as time cycles, the structure of trade itself on various time-frames and much more.

We use the charting for crude oil on thirteen different time-frames (1 minute charting through to monthly charting), we chart it on conventional charts, work with algorithmic modelling and back test all the various indicators for up to 60 months (such as moving averages, VWAP, MACD, stochastic RSI and more).

When we back test our assumptions we are calculating the probability of that structure in trade re-occurring. When we find a structure with high probability of repeating then we model that structure and code it to our machine trade software.

In this specific area of day-trading (intra-day sell-offs and reversals) we can help you with what structure is in play on the one minute chart as oil sells off and what to watch for so that you know the sell-off is likely done and the price trend is about to change and turn bullish for price reversal.

Support And Resistance On The One Minute Oil Chart in Sell-Offs.

Specific to crude oil, sell-off support and resistance on the charting is VERY PREDICTABLE. You will find that the areas of support are very precise and price will step down in a very structured way on the chart – this is a near exact science.

Why is the trade of oil so precise on the one minute chart when oil sells off? The answer is very likely because the trade of oil is now mostly done by software programmed / coded for machine trade and this machine trade liquidity has caused very specific structures of trade to manifest.

Lets Look at Some Recent Crude Oil Trade From our Oil Trading Room.

Below is a screen shot from our oil trade chat room on Discord (which is not the same as the live broadcast oil trading room) of a comment and a chart of intra day trade in crude oil (this was posted at 1:03 PM last Thursday).

My comment in the trading room reads “perfect structured sell down out of support in to next buy trigger”. What this means is that crude oil sold off intra day, it lost its area of support (the yellow diagonal trend line on the one minute chart model) and then dropped perfectly to the next support decision line on the chart (yellow line again) and then price bounced to test resistance.

By the way, the crude oil trade alerts are both what you see below (the Discord private server screen images below) and alerted on a private member Twitter feed.

This structure (you see below) occurred over and over again daily this week during sell-offs. This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.

Click here for an article that explains what short selling is.

This is by far one of the most predictable signals available for day-trading crude oil you will find. It has one of the highest probabilities of success in oil trade model charting.

The key to success however is learning what the structure is (having the model at your disposal for when you trade) so that you can size your trades properly and set stop orders properly etc – learning how to use the signals for your strategy and knowing when trade is likely to stop selling off so that you can then begin planning for a trend reversal.

This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.

crude, oil, trading, room, chart

Crude oil trading chat room screen capture of day trade in oil selling off using support. #oil #tradingroom #daytrading

And then in the screen shot below from the oil trading room you will see on the next chart posted to the room that oil started to bounce (or trade up) from the support (or buy trigger signal) on the chart. I then asked our software developer Jeremy to note that the software did not trigger a long trade for our coding updates to be done later that night.

Look close at his answer / comment to my request, he knew why the software did not signal a trigger for a long trade (and also why there was no trade alert as such on our member feed to buy)… it was because the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.

the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.

oil, trading, day trading, traders, room

Screen shot of oil trading room, price of oil trying to reverse, day trading signals for our strategy and discussion between traders.

And sure enough, if you look at the next image below you see that they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure (next yellow line down representing next support in a sell off). Again, it was precise trade action.

they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure

crude, oil, short selling, daytrade, signal

Oil short sell signal for daytrading strategy on the algorithmic chart model for day traders.

Then you will notice that I alerted the oil trading room (at 1:12 PM Thursday) that the bulls are starting to buy at each support area of the one minute chart (in other words, be aware that a price reversal in intra-day trade could occur soon).

There were buy programs and/or day-traders starting to buy at supports that are not support areas for a continued sell-off, they are areas of support for either indecision (or a decision is needed) or support for trading bullish (or in an uptrend).

This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal). These lines are at the white diagonal (signals a decision area of charting) and the blue diagonal (signals bullish support) on the chart model.

Oil was trading at 57.44 on FX USOIL WTI at the time.

This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal).

trade signal, alert, reversal, oil trade room

Screen capture of oil trading room alert signalling for daytraders to watch for trend reversal in day trade action.

And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal. I was explaining to our day traders in the room at the time (this screen shot is taken on the weekend so you don’t see who was in the oil trade room at the time in the image) what to watch for in intra-day trade action for a confirmation of trend reversal. In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.

In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.

trend reversal, bounce, trade, crude oil

And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal.

And then in this image (screen shot from oil trading room) you see that trade hit the price target and got through resistance confirming more that the low of day in trade had been put in and that we were now alerting bias to uptrend trading signals going forward for oil trade on the day.

Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model – this is machine trade. Knowing what the large liquidity in machine trade is doing is key now when day trading crude oil. This is very important.

Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model.

oil, trading, room, reversal, trade, signal, alert

Image (screen shot oil trading room) oil trade hit price target through resistance confirms uptrend trading signals

Looking at the chart below you can see very clearly how precise the day trading signals are on the daytrading algorithmic crude oil model.

  • The green arrows show three shorting opportunities from yellow diagonal support / resistance to the next yellow diagonal support / resistance (like stairs stepping trade down in the model).
  • You will notice that the last stair down that trade over shot the yellow line a bit, this is a signal that an intra-day bottom is being put in.
  • You can also notice (from the charts shown above) that as buying came in at the decision support / resistance lines (white diagonal lines on chart model) and at the blue decision diagonal support / resistance lines that I alerted a possible trend reversal in trade.
  • Then you will notice (see chart below) that trade got through the yellow resistance after bouncing (yellow arrow on chart) – this is a bullish intra-day signal that a reversal is likely near.
  • And then next in trade you will see that trade bounced at the blue diagonal trend-line (blue arrow) when it pulled back from resistance, a bounce at a blue line is further confirmation that trade is now bullish intra-day. The blue lines are used as support and resistance in an intra-day uptrend.
  • And then the subsequent blue arrows on the chart show how trade breached in to the next bullish area, then pulled back and used the blue line as support (after confirming up after hitting a decision white line) for a bounce and then so on through the bullish trade reversal in the daytrading sequence.
  • Blue is for trading in uptrend, yellow is trading a sell off, white is a reference point for a decision to go up or down in trend on the model.
  • The trend-lines on this algorithm model are not conventional. The trend-lines are algorithmic calculations and therefore proprietary and not available elsewhere.

How powerful is that for an oil daytrader?

Knowing exactly where the support and resistance is during a sell-off and knowing with high probability where the turn is likely to happen for reversal in trade and then knowing exactly where to trade the uptrend.

daytrading, crude, oil, signals, algorithm

Algorithmic chart model for shorting oil, trading a reversal in oil and decision areas of daytrading signals.

Below is the video explanation that accompanies this post (live oil trading room footage included).

In part two (the premium member post) we will take a deeper look at strategies for trading the one minute model (such as trade sizing and seeing the reversals in advance) and I will provide chart links to the proprietary algorithmic models via email to our members.

Protected: Part 2. Deep Dive Day Trading Signals Crude Oil Sell-Off, Reversals, Trend Trade | 1 Min Strategies (Premium).

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trade Alerts, Trading, Oil Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Shorting, Support, Resistance, Reversals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Mastering Crude Oil Intra-Day Moves – The Regular USA Market Open Provides Significant Range of Trade and Opportunity for Profitable Day Trades.

This in depth article series looks closer at trade strategies oil traders can use to gain an edge. We are currently coding these specific set-ups to our machine trading software.

Mechanical (human) traders can also learn from this process and use the methods in day trading, trend following and swing trade planning.

We hope to produce one article per week in this series.

Article Structure (Part 1, 2, 3…).

Each article will cover a specific oil trading strategy (set-up) and will include at least 3 parts.

  • Part 1 – Public facing unlocked post that outlines the general trade set-up and generally how the set-up can be traded (in most instances this will include some conventional charting, the chart links for live chart sharing are included in Part 2).
  • Part 2 – Premium member post (locked) that will explain in detail the technical set-up on conventional and algorithmic chart models and how to specifically execute each trade to gain an edge (timing each trade entry, sizing, trimming and adding to positions, technical indicators and more). We will also look at the week to come and how to plan your trading.
  • Part 3 – Each trading strategy will include at least one follow-up article to review real world trading examples from our live oil trading room (live video examples with voice broadcast from our lead trader, chat room logs, live alert screen shots, order sizing, profit and loss and more).

Specifically in this article we look closely at the regular USA equity market open and how to day trade momentum during this important time in crude oil trade.

A List of Common Strategies Used to Day-Trade Crude Oil (Point Form).

There are a number of ways (strategies, methods) a trader can use and refine to gain an edge when trading crude oil. Some examples include and are not limited to;

  • Trend Following / Swing Trading within trending price of oil on various charting time-frames within trading channels. For example, the price of oil has followed a channel on larger time frames (4 hour, daily, weekly etc) since December 24, 2018. The price of oil followed the channel from lows of 42.44 on December 24, 2018 to highs of 66.64 on April 23, 2019 (charted on FX USOIL WTI below). On Friday oil closed 61.69 to end the week. Price has been consolidating / moving sideways over the last week.
  • Price Range Trading. Be prepared to take long trades near oil chart time-frame lows and shorting near the price range highs.
  • Price Reversal Trades (Snap-Back Trades). Crude Oil Intra-Day Sell-offs offer a great opportunity for a reversal day trade long (with significant opportunity for gains intra-day, as do intra-day tops in price). The key is knowing how to trade this set-up.
  • Technical Chart Trading – Conventional and Algorithmic Models. This may include trading Fibonacci levels, VWAP, MACD, Stochastic, Candle Stick Patterns, structured Algorithmic Models and much more.
  • Day Trading Time-of-Day Trend Inflections during market event timing such as when regular equity markets open around the world. Specifically in this article we look at the USA regular equity day market open. There are other examples such as other global market openings, EIA at 10:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday (the crude oil inventory report), API report at 4:30 PM Tuesday, daily 2:30 EST settlement, 6:00 PM futures open and more.
    • crude, oil, sell off, market open, trade

      Tues May 7 crude oil price sells off at regular market open over 80 points to reverse more than 100 points intraday.

  • There are many other examples such as; inventory levels, summer driving season, tanker movement, Geo Political events, market sentiment and more.

Example – Day Trading the Regular Market Open Momentum Strategy. Lets Start with Reviewing Oil Trade From Last Week.

On Monday May 6 (to start the week) crude oil market open momentum set-up sees crude oil trade from 61.24 at 9:27 AM – 61.90 at 10:17 AM, a progressive increase in price from overnight futures session after a late week sell off the week prior. A 66 tick early day move in price.

The opportunity was a 66 tick move on a long side trade at open and then the retrace was as big of a move and then price ran after that through the rest of the regular trading session.

Just the open momentum trade and retrace (lasting just over an hour) was an opportunity for over 100 ticks. That’s a serious opportunity, and it isn’t unusual. In real dollar terms with one contract in CL that equates to a 1,000.00 USD (approximate) gain at market open (if you can learn to trade it predictably).

The one minute oil chart below shows the trade action at market open.

daytrading, crude, oil, strategy, market open

Monday May 6 to start the week crude oil market open momentum has crude oil trade 61.24 – 61.90.

Monday morning was a long trade until 10:17 AM, the momentum started right before open at 9:27 AM, it was (in general on an intra-day time-frame) a follow-through momentum trade from overnight futures the night prior. Sunday night trade melted up after a sell-off late the week prior.

The overnight trend trade strategy will be dealt with in detail in a near future post. For now, the main takeaway here is to follow the intra-day trend until it breaks (generally speaking your bias should be toward trend).

In this instance, price then (after the overnight move and the market open move) went on to trend up through the regular day session for significant gains.

market open, trade, strategy, trend

Monday morning was long crude oil trade follow-through momentum from futures the night before.

How to Trade It – Indications to Confirm Trading Crude Oil Long at Regular Session Open.

Lets look at some conventional charting indicators and then in the follow up Part 2 of this article we will take a close look at our algorithmic model indications that can help confirm direction of trade, sizing, range and more.

  1. Trade In Direction of Intra-day Trend. As above, intra-day trend was for a long bias in oil trade in to open.
  2. Chart Indicators. Conventional chart indicators for day-trading crude oil – Stochastic RSI, MACD, SQZ MOM, Volume, Momentum, Moving Averages, Candle Stick Patterns etc. The one minute chart provides perspective / confirmation of how difficult it is to day trade crude oil with only conventional indicators and conventional charting. The indicators and charting can help, but the indicators (such as Stochastic RSI, MACD, SQZ MOM) can also hinder bias. You’ll notice the selling retrace prior to open that started around 7:00 AM that the Stochastic, MACD and SQZ MOM all confirmed properly that price was selling off (albeit they are trailing indicators) but when price started to trade up they were at best indecisive. And when the regular market open came and price continued to trade up the SQZMOM was turning down, the MACD was indecisive and the Stochastic RSI moved up. Bottom line, it is not easy to use these simple charting indicators. Volume came in progressively in to open – that was a bullish signal and price was upside of all the moving averages (a positive sign for a short term bullish bias in a momentum scenario). All-in-all bias should have been to the long side, but it was no easy trade. Structured charting (conventional and algorithmic) provides a better road map with detailed support and resistance levels so that you can direct your trade accordingly. You can weigh important support and resistance against intra-day trade, sizing and various other decisions. Also of note, the candle sticks did provide some clue, like the long wick prior to selling, the double bottom and top candlesticks and so on. But they only provide clues and should carry little weight on a one minute time-frame.
  3. The Psychology of Round Numbers and Time of Day Trading. When price turned down at around 7:40 AM (nearing that time of day when traders start looking toward the US regular market open) oil was trading at 61.62 (which is just north of 61.50 and doesn’t provide for optimum range at open), optimum range is a full 100 ticks, 40 ticks isn’t consider a great open range and 50 ticks isn’t ideal so “lets sell off to 61.00 for a move to 62.00” is the general mentality of the mass. Yes, it can be this simple. Simple, yet difficult to execute. Then as 9:00 AM nears the price is now nearing 61.00 as it slowly sells down (trading at 61.09) and like magic you get two solid candles and the sell down stops. Trade then struggled with the 200 MA and also as it neared the previous premarket highs as the regular market open neared and then at regular session open price and volume drove the price of oil from 61.41 to 61.89. 61.89 is nearing 62.00 and selling pressure starts. Then price sells off and returns to the session open range once again. This is not an easy premarket, run in to regular market open, market open momentum and topping trade. Experts can trade it (especially with sophisticated models), but not easy even for an expert.

    conventional, crude, oil, daytrading, chart, market open

    Conventional chart indicators for daytrading crude oil, Stochastic, MACD, SQZ MOM, volume, moving averages, candle sticks etc.

  4. Sentiment. After a brief pull back, crude oil then trades from 61.40 – 62.90 on short term geo political and market sentiment. 150 tick move.

    crude oil, daytrading, sentiment

    After a brief pull back, crude oil then trades from 61.40 – 62.90 on trade war sentiment and optimism. 150 tick move.

  5. Range of Trade. Be aware of the near term historical range of trade. You can see on the 30 min chart below that crude oil trade found support at a key horizontal historical support and diagonal trend-line. and ran to a key price range resistance.The chart used is derived from the long term trend line chart shown below this one.

    crude, oil, trading, range

    Crude oil trade found support at a key horizontal historical support and diagonal trend-line. and ran to a key price range resistance.

  6. Trading Price Channels. Below is the long term chart trending channel that has been consistently trading since Dec 24, 2017 and more recently come under pressure.
    crude oil, channel, trend, swing trade

    Swing trading channel trends, price of oil has followed a channel since December 24, 2018. FX USOIL WTI CL_F USO UWT DWT

    Another example is this simple 15 minute channel trend chart. This 15 min oil chart shows the move in Monday trade from the channel support to just over channel resistance.

    crude, oil, channel, chart, trading

    This 15 min oil chart shows the move in Monday trade from the channel support to just over channel resistance.

  7. Chart Structures. All of the various charting provides trading structure clues for range of trade to weigh trade risk sizing against various support and resistance. In Part 2 of this article we look at the algorithmic chart models and other conventional charting for last week and the week to come.

Conclusion.

Having a good handle on the charting for the specific time-frame you are trading is important. Conventional and algorithmic charting can be used. Also having a good understanding of market sentiment, general trade trend direction, market timing and more can help you win.

In Part 2 we dive deeper in to how to day-trade the regular session market open momentum. It will be sent to premium Oil trading bundle and stand alone newsletter members before regular session open Monday morning!

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (member charting sent out weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (includes weekly newsletter, trading room, charting and real-time trading alerts on Twitter).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Futures, Strategy, Signals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO, Market Open, Momentum

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