EPIC v3.3 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software

March 28, 2022

Project History & Objective.

Our team set out over five years ago to develop sophisticated software architecture for the trade of crude oil futures.

The goal: to provide a stable yet high performance product achieving an increasingly higher ROI over time as the software processes market data, structure of trade action and order-flow.

The primary challenge until mid 2021 was “stability” vs. ROI objectives.

Until recently, some versions of the software achieved over 150% annual ROI and some as low as 20%. The size of the trade account was the most significant determining factor (the larger the account size the more stable the software is and the higher the return).

Over time the architecture of the software has been perfected, but the real game-changer has been the development of the EPIC IDENT™ Order Flow component of the code and more recently the Intra-Day High Frequency code that relies heavily on IDENT™.

Currently the Intra-Day High Frequency protocol of the software code is winning 97.3% of its trades on all account sizes. We had expected this to be 80-90% over time. However, the 97.3% win rate has now occurred over many hundreds of executions (nearing 1000) over a significant number of months. This development is obviously a considerable achievement.

In short, there are three primary protocols of code in the software;

  1. Swing Trading (average sequence duration is 11 weeks and has been as short as 3 weeks and as long as 16 weeks).
  2. Intra-Day High Frequency (average sequence duration is considerably less than 24 hours but can also be described at times as intra-week lasting up to 3 or 4 days).
  3. EPIC IDENT™ Order Flow (extremely high frequency for positioning alongside significant machine “entities” that have presented themselves in the intra-day order flow). 

For the last number of months we have been running EPIC v3.1.5 software and more recently EPIC v3.3 (live trade real world accounts and internal beta versions) on three different account sizes. The software has proven to be very stable while consistently providing considerable returns. 

To our knowledge the EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software is best in class. 

EPIC Software Returns.

Note: Below are the summary results for our most recent v3.1.5 and v3.3 version of software that has been running since September 1, 2021. An addendum that includes extensive real world trade data, methodology of trade executions and trade performance is available by contacting our team.

The 80 account size version was returning a 43% per year (annualized) after first sequence of trade (September 1, 2021 – December 1, 2021). During 9 sequences of trade (approximately 27 months from launch of most recent v3.1.5 version) we expect the ROI to increase steadily to approximately 86% per annum.

More recently the 80 account size version, v3.3, has been added with the v3 generation now in the second large trade sequence (the war caused a significant break-out in crude oil in to 130s). The 80 contract size version is currently running a loss, (draw-down) SPECIFICALLY on sequence 2, of approximately -13% and hit a maximum draw-down in sequence of -24% (as of time of writing). Prior to this sequence it was trading +47.8% (as above and not included in the sequence 2 draw-downs noted). However, as this large break-out sequence continues even the 80 contract size protocol is slowly gaining “position” and the draw-down in the sequence is progressively smaller. At any moment the software is expected to be positive in this divergent break out sequence 2, which is quite an accomplishment for our team. The larger sized software versions are having no issue with the recent price break-out and are in fact in significant profit positions.

The 150 account size version was returning 67% per year (annualized) prior to the large war break-out sequence 2 and currently (at time of writing) is realizing 87% per year (annualized). We expect the ROI to increase over 9 sequences of trade to approximately 134% – 167% per annum.

The 300+ account size version was returning 108% per year (annualized) prior to the large war break-out sequence 2 and currently (at time of writing) is realizing 172% per year (annualized) – it is exceeding our expectations. We expect the ROI to increase over 9 sequences of trade to approximately 216%-247% per annum.

Over time, as the software runs through sequences of trade, the IDENT™ technology in the software gains more intel and as a result the ROI increases considerably.

The maximum return in a perfectly executed software protocol would be near 2000% per annum. However, we don’t expect ever to achieve consistently more than 300% per year trading a 300 account size. 

EPIC Software Highlights.

  1. Lightning Fast Decisions. EPIC crude oil trading software executes trades through utilizing over 8700 weighted decisions instantly. The instructions provided within the architecture are growing daily. A human trader cannot make decisions as quickly, cannot process the data required for most intelligent trading probabilities and cannot execute trades as precisely.
  2. Algorithmic Chart Models. The EPIC software includes over thirty proprietary algorithmic chart models and the catalogue is growing. The algorithmic models have been designed, tested and refined in real-world trade for over 5 years by a team of day traders, each with over 20 years of experience. The oil trading models represent all time-frames from 15 second to monthly time-frames of trade. The algorithmic models have been back-tested to sixty months historically.
  3. Conventional Charting. The software includes conventional charting structures on all time-frames, also back-tested sixty months.
  4. Common Trade Set-Ups. Included in the software are common trade set-ups that oil day traders implement. 
  5. Order Flow. EPIC IDENT™ is data-driven order flow intelligence in real-time to achieve best outcomes. The software includes and executes to a proprietary order flow identification system that tracks behavior (specifically isolating other market machine liquidity) and weighs identified entities and historical trade patterns to its trade decisions (instructions). EPIC IDENT™ increases its intelligence as it gathers data intra-day specific to liquidity flow, historical patterns, time of day, volatility, various preferences, latency, rejects and more. The method is similar to back-testing charting. However, the process occurs in real-time. In short, the software is looking for “fingerprints” within market liquidity. We cannot back-test 60 months as with charting, but back-testing from date of software deployment has been achieved.
  6. Time Cycles. Time cycles are within all algorithmic and conventional trading model structures. Order flow also has identified time cycles and other time cycle events such as weekly reporting in oil markets (API, EIA and rig counts). Additionally there are time-of day market time cycles around the world. All of these different time-cycles are included in the software architecture.

Combined, these advantages enable the EPIC v3.3 Crude Oil Trading software to outperform conventional trading methods.

Introduction to Oil Market Trade and Machine Trading.

The world of public market trade is rapidly changing. It is estimated (depending on source) that over 80% of crude oil futures are not traded by humans and are now traded by machines.

Machine trade may be simple, bot style software, high-frequency software or more sophisticated architecture as with the EPIC v3 class of algorithm.

Our team commenced the oil trading software development journey nearly six years ago with algorithmic chart model development. From day one we employed computer scientists to work with us on a daily basis to build software that would emulate our trading methods.

Over time the software started to win more trades than our traders and today we rely almost solely on the software to execute trades. We simply “tweak” the software at each trade sequence to improve performance.

EPIC v3 software is our 3rd generation oil trading software. EPIC v1 tested returns at about 20% per annum, EPIC v2 at 40% per annum and EPIC v4 architecture was too aggressive for our risk threshold. We then chose to focus our efforts on EPIC v3 and have been refining its code trade by trade since.

Account Size – ROI and Draw-Down Volatility.

The smaller the account size traded, the more difficult it is for the software to limit downside risk and provide optimal returns.

An 80 account size will at times see at some volatility (draw-down risk). A 150 account size will rarely see volatility (draw-down risk) and a 300 account size is expected to almost never encounter volatility.

The software is designed to trade within a sequence of trade within structures or set-ups. As the oil market price changes, the software trading logic uses all the different data to update the decision tree utilizing the instruction rule-set.

You can imagine this as a dot plot process similar to the game “Go” – not exactly, but the concept helps to visualize how the software plots a sequence plan for trade.

The “ebb and flow” of regular oil market trade allows opportunity for the software to plot a plan of trade within a sequence. The larger the account, the more dots that can be plotted (trades can be “bite sized” entries within an “ebb and flow”).

To understand the trading methodology of the software in each “sequence” of trade requires a moderately in-depth conversation to review data with a member of our team.

In short, the software uses a positioning (swing trade) protocol for each sequence of trade and a high-frequency intra-day protocol via EPIC IDENT™ technology. On the positioning (swing trade) side of the architecture, this means that as crude oil price is rising the software is building a position short through-out the rally (and the opposite is true if the price of oil is falling). However, the average cost is off-set by the high-frequency component of trade via EPIC IDENT™ technology so that when the trend reverses the software achieves considerable returns.

API / Deployment Architecture.

EPIC v3 software is designed to be deployed remotely – accessing an account and executing trades. This provides the account holder with ultimate control. The account holder grants the software access and the software executes machine trades to the account. Architecture provides opportunity for decentralized platform integration.

Conclusion.

This paper outlines the opportunities that can be presented by the growing influence of machine trade on global financial markets.

Competitors within the machine trade industry are becoming more and more refined and successful – the best in class are assumed to be winning a larger portion of proceeds.

The most significant immediate challenge developers face in machine trade is building a product that will perform within a prescribed threshold of downside limiting stability while outperforming conventional trading methods.

Soon thereafter the challenge becomes competing against “like-kind” machine trade peers and being best in class.

It is our expectation that fewer and fewer competitors will achieve more of the proceeds (as a whole of trade in public markets) at an exponential rate, which does provide urgency to development and deployment.

The EPIC v3 trading software achieves consistent, predictable and very adaptable architecture that provides exceptional best in class ROI.

Business Inquiries.

For information about our subscription services that include; oil trade alerts, an oil trading room and oil trade newsletter reporting contact Compound Trading Group at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com or www.compoundtrading.com.

For information about the data behind the trade (results) or utilizing our automated crude oil machine trading platform contact our agent representative Richard Regan:

Email richr@sovoron.com
Phone 1-849-861-0697

Previous in this document series can be found here:

 


EPIC v3.1.5 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software

Project History & Objective.

Our team set out over five years ago to develop a software architecture to trade crude oil futures in a stable yet high performance manner, that would also achieve an increasingly higher ROI over time as the software runs.

The primary challenge until recently was “stability” vs. ROI objectives. Some versions of the software achieved over 150% annual ROI and some as little as 20%. The size of the trade account was a factor (the larger the account size the more stable the software is) as was the architecture (instructions of code).

Over time the architecture of the software was perfected but the real game-changer was the development of the EPIC IDENT™ order flow component of the code.

For the last number of months we have been running the most recent EPIC v3.1.5 software (live trade real world accounts and internal beta versions) on three different account sizes and it has proven to be very stable and provides for considerable returns. 

To our knowledge the EPIC Oil Machine Trading Software is best in class. 

EPIC Software ROI.

Note: Below are the summary results t for our most recent v3.1.5 version of software that has been running since September 1, 2021. An addendum that includes extensive real world trade data, methodology of trade executions and trade performance is available by contacting our team.

The 80 account size version is returning a minimum of 43% per year after first sequence of trade (September 1, 2021 – December 1, 2021). During 9 sequences of trade (approximately 27 months from launch of most recent v3.1.5 version) we expect the ROI to increase steadily to approximately 86% per annum.

The 150 account size version is returning a minimum of 67% per year. We expect the ROI to increase over 9 sequences of trade to approximately 134% per annum.

The 300+ account size version is returning a minimum of 108% per year. We expect the ROI to increase over 9 sequences of trade to approximately 216% per annum.

Over time, as the software runs through sequences of trade, the IDENT™ technology in the software gains more intel and as a result the ROI increases considerably.

The maximum return in a perfectly executed software protocol would be near 2000% per annum, however, we don’t expect ever to achieve consistently more than 300% per year trading a 300 account size.  

EPIC Software Highlights.

  1. Lightening Fast Decisions. EPIC crude oil trading software executes trades to over 8700 weighted decisions instantly. The instructions provided within the architecture is growing daily. A human trader cannot make decisions as quickly, cannot process the data required for most intelligent trading probabilities and cannot execute trades as precisely.
  2. Algorithmic Chart Models. The EPIC software includes over thirty proprietary algorithmic chart models and the catalogue is growing. The algorithmic models have been designed, tested and refined in real-world trade for over 5 years by a team of day traders, each with over 20 years of experience. The oil trading models represent all time-frames from 15 second to monthly time-frames of trade. The algorithmic models have been back-tested to sixty months historically.
  3. Conventional Charting. The software includes conventional charting structures on all time-frames, also back-tested sixty months.
  4. Common Trade Set-Ups. Included in the software are common trade set-ups that oil day traders implement. 
  5. Order Flow. EPIC IDENT™ is data-driven order flow intelligence in real-time to achieve best outcomes. The software includes and executes to a proprietary order flow identification system that tracks behavior (specifically isolating other market machine liquidity) and weighs identified entities and historical trade patterns to its trade decisions (instructions). EPIC IDENT™ increases its intelligence as it gathers data intra-day specific to liquidity flow, historical patterns, time of day, volatility, various preferences, latency, rejects and more. The method is similar to back-testing charting, however, the process is real-time. In short the software is looking for “fingerprints” within market liquidity. We cannot back-test 60 months as with charting but back-testing from date of software deployment is achieved.
  6. Time Cycles. Time cycles are within all algorithmic and conventional trading model structures, order flow also has identified time cycles and other time cycle events such as weekly reporting in oil markets such as API, EIA and rig counts. Additionally there are time-of day market time cycles around the world. Time-cycles are included in the software architecture.

Combined, these advantages enable the EPIC v3.1.5 Crude Oil Trading software to outperform conventional trading methods.

Introduction to Oil Market Trade and Machine Trading.

The world of public market trade is rapidly changing. It is estimated (depending on source) that over 80% of crude oil futures are not traded by humans and are now traded by machine.

Machine trade may be simple bot style software, high-frequency software or more sophisticated architecture as with the EPIC v3 class of algorithm. 

Our team commenced the oil trading software development journey near six years ago with algorithmic chart model development. From day one we employed computer scientists to work with us on a daily basis to build software emulating our trading methods.

Over time the software started to win more trades than our traders and today we rely almost solely on the software to execute trades. We simply “tweak” the software at each trade sequence to improve performance.

EPIC v3 software is our 3rd generation oil trading software. EPIC v1 tested returns at about 20% per annum, EPIC v2 at 40% per annum and EPIC v4 architecture was too aggressive for our risk threshold. We settled on EPIC v3 and have been refining its code trade by trade since.

Account Size – ROI and Draw-Down Volatility.

The smaller the account size traded the more difficult it is for the software to limit risk to down-side and provide optimum returns.

An 80 account size will see at times some volatility (draw-down risk), a 150 account size will rarely see volatility (draw-down risk) and a 300 account size is expected to near never encounter risk stability.

The software is designed to trade within a sequence of trade within structures or set-ups. As the oil market price changes, the software trading logic uses all the different data to update the decision tree utilizing the instruction rule-set.

You can imagine this as a dot plot process similar to the game “Go” – not exactly, but the concept helps to visualize how the software plots a sequence plan for trade.

The “ebb and flow” of regular oil market trade allows opportunity for the software to plot a plan of trade within a sequence, the larger the account the more dots can be plotted (trades can be “bite sized” entries within an “ebb and flow”).

To understand the trading methodology of the software in each “sequence” of trade requires a moderately in-depth conversation to review data with a member of our team.

In short, the software uses a positioning (swing trade) protocol for each sequence of trade and a high-frequency intra-day protocol via EPIC IDENT™ technology. On the positioning (swing trade) side of the architecture, this means that as crude oil price is rising the software is building a position short through-out the rally (and the opposite is true if the price of oil is falling). However, the average cost is off-set by the high-frequency component of trade via EPIC IDENT™ technology so that when the trend reverses the software achieves considerable returns.

API Architecture.

EPIC v3 software is designed to be deployed remotely – accessing an account and executing trades. This provides the account holder with ultimate control. The account holder grants the software access and the software executes machine trades to the account. The account holder can turn on or off access at any time. Architecture provides opportunity for decentralized platform integration.

Conclusion.

This paper outlines the opportunity that change in machine trade within global finance markets presents.

Competitors within the machine trade industry are becoming more and more refined / successful – the best in class are assumed to be winning a larger portion of proceeds.

The most significant immediate challenge developers face in machine trade within financial markets is building a product that can win within a prescribed threshold of stability limiting down-side and yet over-perform conventional trading methods. 

Soon thereafter the challenge becomes competing against “like-kind” machine trade peers and being best in class.

It is our expectation that fewer and fewer competitors will achieve more of the proceeds (as a whole of trade in public markets) at an exponential rate, which does provide urgency to development and deployment.

The EPIC v3 trading software achieves consistent, predictable and very adaptable architecture that provides exceptional best in class ROI.

Business Inquiries.

For information about our subscription services that include; oil trade alerts, an oil trading room and oil trade newsletter reporting contact Compound Trading Group at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com or www.compoundtrading.com.

For information about the data behind the trade (results) or utilizing our automated crude oil machine trading platform contact our agent representative Richard Regan:

Email richr@sovoron.com
Phone 1-849-861-0697

Previous in this document series can be found here:

80 Contract Account Sample Trade Execution Data on Sequence One and Associated Protocol Notes.

  • 150 and 300 contract account data also available.

Maximum size 12 contracts on swing portion of protocol.

Maximum size escalation to 18 contracts on high frequency portion of protocol (this will escalate as software gets in to sequence 2 and on).

Swing protocol uses nineteen chart algorithmic models on various time frames. While price is rising software builds a short position and the opposite is true as price drops (cost is off set in ebb and flow trades from swing protocol as well as high frequency protocol).

High frequency protocol uses EPIC IDENT™ on day trade time frames for order flow. The high frequency protocol has a moderately low threshold for stops and will fire many times around pivots intraday unlike the swing protocol which is a sequence positioning protocol.

High frequency protocol advantage is increased with larger accounts and as such the number of executions, frequency and size intraday expands and contracts considerably more.

High frequency EPIC IDENT™ execution data (beyond what is alerted to our members) is not included in sample below as that is proprietary. Disclosure of the high frequency executions is disclosure of the mathematics of the proprietary software (in other words it can be reverse engineered and duplicated).

Daily chart model below (one of nineteen time frames used) is a visual example of a sequence of trade.

Sequence of trade duration included in this sample is September 1, 2021 – December 1, 2021.

Executions included in this sample are copied directly from Private Twitter Member Alert feed. The executions are also alerted to a Private Member Discord Server. In both mediums there are other notes to our members about what the software is doing at any time. Some executions were not alerted on Twitter but alerted to Discord and in some instances there were errors with manual alerts (typically clarified or corrected on the Discord server for our members).

Jeremy — Today at 2:28 PM

Sell 3/80 68.64 hold 3 short

2:28 PM · Sep 1, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 4:00 PM

Buy 1 68.24 hold 2 short

4:00 PM · Sep 1, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:53 AM

Sell 3 69.17 hold 5/80 short

8:54 AM · Sep 2, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:47 AM

Sell 3 70.19 hold 8/80 short

9:47 AM · Sep 2, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 2:15 PM

Cover 1 70.06 holds 7/80 short

2:16 PM · Sep 2, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 2:28 PM

Cover 1 69.91 holds 6/80 short

2:29 PM · Sep 2, 2021

Jeremy — Today at 8:34 AM

Sell 3 hold 9/80 short

70.30

8:35 AM · Sep 3, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:18 AM

Buy 1 70.11 hold 8

9:19 AM · Sep 3, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 69.89 hold 7 short

9:21 AM · Sep 3, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:29 AM

Buy 1 69.68 hold 6/80 short

9:29 AM · Sep 3, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 68.67 hold 5 short

8:05 PM · Sep 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 68.33 hold 4 short

10:44 PM · Sep 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:43 AM

Sell 1 68.68 hold 5 short, order flow is negative, software likely sells in to rallies intra day until that changes

5/80 short

Jeremy — Today at 10:31 AM

Buy 1 68.36 hold 4/80 short

10:31 AM · Sep 7, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 6:02 AM

Sell 1 69.03 hold 5/80 short

6:02 AM · Sep 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 6:31 AM

Sell 1 69.36 hold 6/80 short

6:32 AM · Sep 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:16 AM

Buy 1 69.17 hold 5/80 short

10:16 AM · Sep 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 2:30 PM

Sell 1 68.30 hold 6/80 short

2:30 PM · Sep 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:50 PM

Buy 1 68.085 hold 5/80 short

8:51 PM · Sep 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 8:51 PM

Correction: Buy 1 69.085 hold 5/80 short

8:51 PM · Sep 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:22 AM

Buy 1 69.50 hold 5/80 short

8:23 AM · Sep 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:44 AM

Buy 1 68.65 hold 4 /80 short

8:45 AM · Sep 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:16 AM

Sell 1 69.19 hod 5/80 short

10:16 AM · Sep 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:31 AM

Sell 1 69.37 hold 6/80 short

10:31 AM · Sep 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:49 AM

Cover 1 69.06 holds 5/80 short

11:49 AM · Sep 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 1:15 PM

Buy 1 68.48 hold 4/80 short

1:16 PM · Sep 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:32 AM

Sell 169.43 hold 5/80 short

7:32 AM · Sep 10, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:01 AM

Sell 1 69.64 hold 6/80 short

9:01 AM · Sep 10, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:05 AM

Buy 1 69.34 hold 5 short

10:05 AM · Sep 10, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:01 AM

Sell 1 69.64 hold 6/80 short

9:01 AM · Sep 10, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 70.66 hold 6/80 short

4:28 PM · Sep 13, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 70.27 hold 5/80 short

12:36 PM · Sep 14, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:04 PM

Sell 1 70.89 hold 6/80 short

9:04 PM · Sep 14, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:13 PM

Buy 1 70.70  hold 5/80 short

10:13 PM · Sep 14, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:57 PM

Sell 1 70.89 hold 6/80 short

10:58 PM · Sep 14, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:37 AM

Correction: Sell 1 71.71 hold 7/80 short

8:38 AM · Sep 15, 2021·TweetDeck

High frequency trades are starting in to 72.53 3/80 sizing, intra day time frame (for 10/80 short 3/80 being high frequency). Software will short on HF protocol at each level of resistance 72.53-.63 first area. Then 72.88 73.13

9:41 AM · Sep 15, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:03 PM

Cover 1 72.37 hold 9/80 short

12:03 PM · Sep 15, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:21 AM

Buy 1 72.13 hold 8/80 short (sorry away from screens for 2 mins was delayed)

8:21 AM · Sep 16, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:54 AM

Buy 1 71.69 hold 7/80 short (sorry we are traveling today and the main servers at my location were caught in a windows update)

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 9:56 AM

it hit again anyway lol

9:58 AM · Sep 16, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 72.52 hold 8/80 short

1:26 PM · Sep 16, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 72.18 hold 7 short

2:46 AM · Sep 17, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:01 AM

Buy 1 hold 6/80 71.33

10:02 AM · Sep 17, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:21 AM

Buy 1 70.60 hold 5/80 short

10:22 AM · Sep 20, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:44 AM

Sell 1 70.98 hold 6/80 short

10:44 AM · Sep 20, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:59 AM

Buy 1 70.54 hold 5/80 short

8:59 AM · Sep 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:49 AM

Buy 1 69.46 hold 4/80 short

10:49 AM · Sep 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:35 AM

Sell 1 70.35 hold 5/80 short

11:35 AM · Sep 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:16 PM

Sell 1 70.99 hold 6/80 short

9:17 PM · Sep 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:47 AM

Sell 1 71.73 hold 7/80 short

9:47 AM · Sep 22, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 10:31 AM

Buy 1 71.56 hold 6/80 short

10:31 AM · Sep 22, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 5:02 AM

Buy 1 72.14 hold 6/80 short

5:02 AM · Sep 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Looks like this execution didn’t hit the Twitter feed yesterday Jeremy — Yesterday at 9:34 PM

Sell 1 72.36 hold 7/80 short

5:03 AM · Sep 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:47 AM

Sell 1 72.68 hold 7/30 short

9:47 AM · Sep 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:33 AM

Sell 1 73.285 hold 8/80 size short

11:33 AM · Sep 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 3:11 PM

Buy 1 73.01 hold 7 /80 short

3:12 PM · Sep 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 1:54 AM

Sell 1 73.46 hold 8/80 short

1:54 AM · Sep 24, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:03 AM

Buy 1 73.06 hold 7/80 short

8:03 AM · Sep 24, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:46 AM

Sell 1 73.43 hold 8 /80 short

9:46 AM · Sep 24, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 73.88 hold 9/80 short, high frequency probable if much higher today.

12:01 PM · Sep 24, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:00 PM

Sell 6 74.81 hold 15/80 short HF intra day protocol.

8:00 PM · Sep 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:20 PM

Buy 1 74.76 hold 14/80

8:20 PM · Sep 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 74.81 hold 13/80 short

8:22 PM · Sep 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:30 PM

Buy 1 74.73 hold 12 / 80 short

8:31 PM · Sep 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 74.81 hold 11 /80 short

8:36 PM · Sep 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 11:10 AM

Buy 1 74.81 hold 10/80 short

11:10 AM · Sep 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 2:28 PM

Sell 1 75.29 hold 11/80 short

Jeremy — Today at 2:47 PM

Cover 1 74.97 hold 10/80 short

2:47 PM · Sep 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 2:28 PM

Sell 1 75.29 hold 11/80 short

2:29 PM · Sep 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 2:47 PM

Cover 1 74.97 hold 10/10 short

2:47 PM · Sep 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Correction Sell 1 75.52 hold 11/80 short

10:43 AM · Sep 29, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:32 AM

Buy 1 71.21 hold 10/80 short

11:32 AM · Sep 29, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 11:17 AM

Sell 1 75.19 hold 11/80 short

11:18 AM · Sep 30, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 1:18 PM

Software sold 1 at 76.04 hold 12/80 short then covered 75.12 for 11/80 short, sorry, happened too fast

1:18 PM · Sep 30, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 1:46 PM

Buy 74.80 hold 10/80 short

1:46 PM · Sep 30, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 76.64 hold 11/80 short (high frequency probable soon intra day 77.24-34 and above) trading 76.76

8:54 AM · Oct 4, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:57 AM

Sell 1 78.34 hold 12/80 short – that is within 2 contracts of EPIC’s max allowable positioning, everything above is high frequency on short side.

Jeremy — Today at 10:08 AM

Buy 1 77.75 hold 11/80 short

10:08 AM · Oct 4, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:02 AM

Sell 1 78.48 hold 12/80 short

Within 2/80 of high frequency intra day protocol only.

8:03 AM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:20 AM

Short 6/80 tight stops intra day HF executions, hold 18/80, resistance 79.44 and up intra day.

11:20 AM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:40 AM

Buy 1 79.29 hold 5 intra day – total 17/80 short, overhead supply moved in but they likely get a little higher yet, in to 79.90s

We”l see

11:40 AM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 79.08 hold 16/80 short

11:45 AM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 79.03 hold 15/80 short 3 on day time frame

11:46 AM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 79.07 holds 14/80 short 2 intra day HF

11:50 AM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:00 PM

Buy 1 79.01 holds 13/80 short, 1 intra day that it will likely convert to positioning in the swing protocol

12:00 PM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 12:14 PM

Buy 1 78.88 holds 12/80 short 0 intraday HF

12:14 PM · Oct 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:54 AM

Buy 1 78.11 hold 11/80 short

7:54 AM · Oct 6, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:46 AM

Sell 1 /80 77.92 hold 12/80 short

10:46 AM · Oct 7, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 79.46 hold 13/80 short

10:36 PM · Oct 7, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 6:47 AM

Buy 1 78.81 hold 12/80 short

6:47 AM · Oct 8, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:19 AM

High frequency zone starting here, order flow change. Short 6 HF intra day 82.11 hold 18/80 will be tight stops.

7:19 AM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:19 AM

High frequency zone starting here, order flow change. Short 6 HF intra day 82.11 hold 18/80 will be tight stops.

[7:20 AM]

Buy 1 81.92 hold 17 short

7:20 AM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:45 AM

Buy 1 81.86 hold 16 short

7:45 AM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:08 AM

Buy 1 81.71 hold 15 short

8:08 AM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:11 AM

Buy 1 81.70 hold 14 short

8:11 AM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:37 AM

Buy 1 81.08 hold 13 short

8:37 AM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:22 PM

Buy 1 80.19 hold 12/80 short

8:23 PM · Oct 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 83.55 hold 13/80 short

10:50 PM · Oct 17, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:18 AM

Buy 1 83.02 hold 12 short

9:18 AM · Oct 18, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 1:51 PM

Buy 1 81.93 hold 11 /80 short, however, that is a re positioning execution and EPIC will short that specific position again if / when higher.

1:51 PM · Oct 18, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 83.46 hold 12/80 short.

7:01 AM · Oct 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:15 AM

Buy 1 83.03 hold 11/80 short

8:15 AM · Oct 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 11:33 AM

Sell 1 83.39 hold 12/80 short

[11:33 AM]

That is the re peg

11:34 AM · Oct 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 2:24 PM

Buy 1 83.00 hold 11/80 short

2:24 PM · Oct 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:10 PM

Sell 1 82.93 hold 12/80 short

12:11 PM · Oct 20, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:06 PM

Sell 1 83.79 hold 13/80 – within 1 position of only high frequency in size trades

8:06 PM · Oct 20, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 11:12 PM

Buy 1 83.42 hold 12/80 short

11:13 PM · Oct 20, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:42 AM

Buy 1 82.52 hold 11/80 short

9:42 AM · Oct 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:12 PM

Sell 1 82.93 hold 12/80 short

9:13 PM · Oct 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:48 PM

Buy 1 82.67 hold 11/80 short

9:49 PM · Oct 21, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:15 PM

Sell 1 83.19 hold 12/80 short

12:15 PM · Oct 22, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:06 AM

Sell 1 84.13 hold 13/80 short, 1 from HF protocol only

8:06 AM · Oct 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:07 AM

Buy 1 83.81 hold 12/80 short

9:07 AM · Oct 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:19 AM

IDENT triggered

@Curt

Melonopoly

[9:21 AM]

IDENT has a machine entity in play 9:19:30 82.8209 – tracking

9:21 AM · Oct 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:43 AM

Sell 1 84.53 hold 13/80 short

11:43 AM · Oct 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:44 PM

Buy 1 84.21 hold 12/80 short

[7:45 PM]

EPIC IDENT is tracking an entity since 9:19:30 AM at 82.8209, a sequence model for this entity will be published soon.

7:45 PM · Oct 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:05 PM

Buy 1 82.52 hold 11 / 80 short

Correction 82.55 Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:05 PM

Buy 1 82.52 hold 11 / 80 short

12:05 PM · Oct 27, 2021·TweetDeck

Correction: 83.82 not 82.82 —–> Jeremy — 10/26/2021

IDENT triggered

@Curt

Melonopoly#9183

IDENT has a machine entity in play 9:19:30 83.8209 – tracking

11:54 AM · Oct 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 83.125 hold 12/80 short

4:19 PM · Oct 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 8:20 PM

Buy 1 82.67 hold 11 / 80 short

8:20 PM · Oct 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 1:49 PM

Sell 1 83.52 hold 12 short

1:50 PM · Oct 29, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 11:57 AM

Buy 1 82.92 hold 11/80 short

11:57 AM · Nov 2, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 81.56 hold 12/80 short

1:59 PM · Nov 5, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 83.24 hold 13/80 short, 1 more in positioning available then all high frequency in size only.

12:22 PM · Nov 9, 2021·TweetDeck

Cover 1 81.94 hold 12/80 short (last was Sell 1 83.24 hold 13/80 short

12:10 PM · Nov 10, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 6:39 AM

Buy 1 80.26 hold 11/80 short

6:39 AM · Nov 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:17 AM

Sell 1 81.67 hold 12/80 short

9:17 AM · Nov 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:58 AM

Cover 1 81.16 hold 11/80 short

that;s from this re-peg Jeremy — Today at 9:17 AM

Sell 1 81.67 hold 12/80 short

11:59 AM · Nov 11, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:55 PM

Cover 1 78.536 holds 11/80 short, this is a re-position cover only

12:55 PM · Nov 17, 2021·TweetDeck

CORRECTION: 10/80 short not 11/80 short… Curt Melonopoly — Today at 12:55 PM

Cover 1 78.536 holds 11/80 short, this is a re-position cover only

12:58 PM · Nov 17, 2021·TweetDeck

Cover 1 76.81 hold 10/80 short. IDENT has new entities so I apologize our trading desk offices are very busy at the moment. Will advise.

5:07 AM · Nov 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Correction to 5:07 AM alert, software holds 9/80 short not 10/80 short. —-> Jeremy — Today at 5:07 AM

Cover 1 76.81 hold 10/80 short. IDENT has new entities so I apologize our trading desk offices are very busy at the moment.

6:55 AM · Nov 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Cover 1 75.62,  hold 8/80 short

8:03 AM · Nov 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:17 AM

Sell 1 76.69 hold 9/80 short

9:17 AM · Nov 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 11:12 AM

Cover 1 75.75 hold 8/80 short

11:12 AM · Nov 19, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 78.52 hold 9/80 short

9:40 AM · Nov 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:59 AM

Cover 1 77.96 hold 8/80 short

9:59 AM · Nov 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Sell 1 78.82 hold 9/80 short

1:21 PM · Nov 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 2:30 PM

Buy 1 78.26 hold 8/80 short

2:30 PM · Nov 23, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 9:46 AM

Buy 1 72.28 hold 8/80 short

9:47 AM · Nov 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Correction 7/80 short

9:47 AM · Nov 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:04 AM

Buy 1 71.92 hold 6 / 80 short

10:04 AM · Nov 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 10:15 AM

Buy 1 71.29 hold 5 /80 short, order flow is chaning intra day now

10:15 AM · Nov 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 70.67 hold 4/80 short, I don’t think it will cover any more in this sequence.

10:38 AM · Nov 26, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 6:03 PM

Sell 1 71.69 hold 5 short

6:03 PM · Nov 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 70.76 hold 4 short

6:04 PM · Nov 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 7:57 PM

Sell 1 71.89 hold 5 / 80 short

7:58 PM · Nov 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:22 PM

Buy 1 71.06 hold 4/80 short

8:22 PM · Nov 28, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 8:42 AM

Sell 1 72.23 hold 5/80 short

8:42 AM · Nov 29, 2021·TweetDeck

Curt Melonopoly — Today at 10:10 AM

Cover 1 71.28 hold 4/80 short

10:10 AM · Nov 29, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 11:45 AM

buy 1 66.42 hold 3/80 short

11:45 AM · Nov 30, 2021·TweetDeck

Jeremy — Today at 12:57 AM

Sell 1 68.30 hold 4/80 short

12:57 AM · Dec 1, 2021·TweetDeck

Buy 1 67.87 hold 3/80 short

8:26 AM · Dec 1, 2021·TweetDeck

Algorithmic Oil Chart Model Used By Software Shows Crude Oil Rally Sept 1-Oct 25 and Price Sell Off Oct 25-Dec 1.

Software was building a short position during the rally and covering with profit during the sell off. The software also traded ebb and flow buy and selling in the swing protocol on the way up and also executed high frequency trades on the way up which lowered the average cost of the position.

 


Important Note: Oil Traders, Alerts, Trading Room, Machine Trading

 

Good afternoon traders,

There is a new white paper coming out later that will address this and other points.

But for timely reasons I want to share one important update with you relating to oil trade alerts.

We have recently completed another software update for EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading.

Specifically, it is that the base contract account size traded going forward (and alerted) is a 30 contract account, or at minimum an account 300,000.00 USD or larger trading CL continuous contracts.

Any account smaller than 10 contracts (if traded on CL futures not specifically CFDs because this is different) is at significant risk considering the recent market action. Machine entities around the globe are adjusting, this is obvious in order flow.

The alerts will then reflect a 30 contract account size. In other words, Long 1/30 size etc will be represented in the alerts. This will also allow those trading CFD’s to better manage sizing relative to the alerts.

The bottom line is that an account trading CL futures at 30 contracts via EPIC v3 software is considered very low risk (if any), an account at 10 contracts possesses moderate risk and anything less significant risk – in this market environment.

Any questions please let me know.

The revised white paper will however likely answer any questions you may have.

Thanks

Curt

Reminder to existing clients! If you are on Whatsapp and want to have the fastest direct access to my trading desk send your whatsapp number to compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com and I’ll connect to you there also.

Most Recent EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading White Paper:

White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading

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Article Topics: Trading, Crude Oil, Oil, Trade, Alerts, Machine Trading

 


RE: EPIC v3 Software Protocol Code Updates

 

When developing the software our team back tested 60 months (per white paper). 

 

Today we spent significant time back testing further than 60 months. The most recent market event (Corona) more resembles 2008.

 

In short, even the most “throttled” of the EPIC v3 software protocols is not “tight” enough for “market events”. Specifically I am referring to the positioning protocol v3 has to fire within.

 

We have further adapted the software to only fire on a daytrading (intra-day) protocol.

 

Specifically this means that all indicators EPIC v3 uses to fire will remain the same, see white paper here:

 

https://compoundtrading.com/white-paper-how-epic-v3-crude-oil-machine-trading-outperforms-conventional-trading-methods/  

 

But the hold area of trade (the positioning draw-down threshold) becomes one range on the 1 minute chart. In other words, EPIC v3 will fire but will fire only within the current 1 minute model range and will not hold anything below a one minute range support.

 

In practical terms this means that all trades will be high frequency intra day mode when firing and there will be no holds. No holds on weekends and holds end of day will occur but only within the 1 minute range.

 

In summary the “positioning” part of the code has been removed completely and only the intra day high frequency remains. The code is in essence the same with the exception of the “positioning” component.

 

A detailed update will follow in a white paper update in editing now.

 

Watching the alerts over the next few days and attending the live trading room will give you a better idea than this letter will.

 

Any questions let me know,

 

Thanks

 

Curt 


EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading Software Updates, A Follow-Up to Last Week’s Note on February 2nd.

RE: Software Drawdown Protocols vs Expected Returns and Oil Trade Alerts.

Good day traders,

Last weeks note (if you have not read it) can be found here;

EPIC v3 Crude Oil Code Updates: Drawdown & Short Selling Protocols $CL_F $USO #machinetrading

Since the Feb 2 note I have had some questions from our clients that I suspect others have also, so I a summarizing responses from those questions below.

Our Primary Objective

The goal in our development is now limiting draw-downs, we know the software works and that is not at issue, at issue is the size of potential draw-down.

Our primary objective is to find the range of “throttle” in the software that provides a consistent return with the least volatility in ROI.

Draw-down Protocol “Events”

The software is designed to trade on historical structures, trade set-ups, order flow and more – find details in the most recent white paper update can be found here.

Specifically to draw-down protocols, in my last note I described the change in code to be throttled 50% (limiting potential downside to 50% of what is described in the white paper). I also explained that if required we would throttle it again another 50% of its most recent setting.

Last week crude oil seemed to be basing from a technical perspective and the software (considering the chop) did well, however, we were not comfortable with the potential draw-down risk in the “event” driven chop.

At issue specifically are market “events”, such as with the recent virus event out of China. Event periods will potentially cause draw-downs, our objective is to avoid this volatility.

As of today we have done that – throttled the draw-down protocol again.

The reason is simple, our objective now is to limit unnecessary draw-down percentages to the point that we can allow the software to run without concern to draw-downs even if that limits potential returns. For now this is the case and as explained previously if we open the throttle at all we will advise our clients well in advance. 

In practical terms this means that the software size held is limited intra-day when in draw-down and the range is limited. The range is not changed from previous, being one full “quad” and/or “channel” range on the EPIC Algorithm Model but the size held is limited to near 1/10 size. The size can very from approximately 1/10 to 3/10 size but the software will “flash” in and out any adds with near zero range stops executing at each key support in a draw-down.

Oil Trade Alerts

This will at times cause the oil trade alerts feed to be very active but yet at times will be very silent as the software will only execute the highest probability trades also.

This represents the tightest throttle possible in our code.

Expected Returns vs. Draw-Down Risk

Through development we have had plateaus of code structure ranging from 20% – 150% ROI expectation and we even looked toward 300% being possible.

However, there is a volatility to potential draw-down that comes with higher expectation of ROI. This has to be balanced with account size and risk tolerance.

Our objective is to code software that has limited draw-down with highest ROI on specifically 10 contract size accounts. As explained previously, 30 contract and higher accounts this is much different. 

At the current throttle setting our estimation of returns is somewhere between 40 – 80% per year (likely closer to 40%) with very littler risk to the down-side as we have run the software in this throttle range prior for some time and this is the ROI expectation. The variance in ROI expectation (40%- 80%) is in consideration of market conditions and not how we expect the software to run.

After the software has run for a considerable time at this level of “throttle” we will look at releasing the “throttle”, but this will be only considered after some time and again I emphasize that our clients will be notified well in advance.

Being as transparent as I can, the reason for this is motivated by the fact that we have been in development for near 4 years and there is a point where returns need to be the norm and not volatility in development. We need to run a low risk environment for some time now as development has been costly. When we have recouped development costs and put some profit back in to the project we can then look at further development and associated risk. 

Our next white paper update will reflect the content of these updates notes.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

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Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

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Article topics; crude, oil, trading, machine trading, algorithm


RE: EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading Software Updates

Good afternoon traders,

It is Sunday Feb 2, 2020 and futures markets will be opening soon.

In advance of a new week I am communicating our most recent EPIC v3 code updates to keep everyone abreast of changes. I have had a number of email and DM discussions and will encapsulate the question and answer of those discussions below.

Through-out the previous trading week I did communicate much of this content below in summary form via email, in private oil trade member server on Discord and even Twitter. If you prefer the reader’s digest version see this link: https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/1223755725572378624

The EPIC v3 version software is consistently on the win side to near 100% win-rate, easily above 90% consistently. This goal was the primary challenge for us in development, without this accomplishment everything else is moot – it simply would not matter. Coding the draw-down protocol to a level of comfort is much much less work.

In short, we have coded with success an extremely high win percentage rate and that took extensive work and includes over 8700 instructions of code. This is our concrete footing.

At issue however, is when the software does lose a trade – specifically the drawdown amount.

Also at issue, and not as problematic is the win rate on the short selling side. Per previous communications we may or may not ever find success in this code and it doesn’t really affect the ROI expectations because our code protocol for drawdown on short side trades is extremely throttled so there is near zero potential loss in short trade sequences.

Specific to the drawdown percentage during a loss, the most recent white paper outlines the protocol for percentage of loss allowable here: 

White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading

So then the question becomes, if we know we can win easily more than 90% then why risk significant drawdown amounts when a trade does not work?

The answer or the balance of thinking is in the potential annual returns, we do not know the answer to the question – if we throttle the software to lower risk how that will affect annual returns.

We know that we can run returns 80% – 150% per year leaving the drawdown protocol as it is, but the problem is that the drawdowns are not just very uncomfortable, with smaller accounts they are more significant in terms of percentage and put at risk the account itself.

So this update is specifically motivated by and to accounts in the 10 contract size category or less, although updates to the code are in effect for all size of accounts.

So as I communicated to our clients last week we have initially throttled the software drawdown protocol to 50% of the previous protocol as outlined in the most recent white paper update (link above).

If this code update (50% of previous) is not performing as we expect we will again throttle to another 50%. I do not think this will be necessary and I am sure the current update is more than acceptable.

What does this mean in real world practical applications?

The expectations of returns are likely to be less than previously expected but this is not known until we see how the near term trade sequences perform. There is the far off chance the annual returns will actually be better than prior.

The code is throttled which manifests as only the highest probability of trade set ups to trigger a sequence, however, when a sequence starts the frequency of trade may be considerably more because the downside / stops are significantly tighter than the previous code.

In practical terms, this means that the software will not likely hold more than a 3/10 size trade for any amount of time at all unless the win side trade is extremely structured and trending up and it also means that any amount of draw-down will be limited to one quad on EPIC 30 minute model (with some slippage allowed pending order flow).

The range of trade is much smaller (limited to one quad on EPIC model or channel of the model), the size is much smaller in a sequence if there is pressure at all and the frequency of trade once it starts firing will be much higher.  

In summary, you will see the software fire predominantly per the EPIC 30 minute model weighted against all other models and order flow within a much tighter size management protocol.

It is difficult to summarize over 8700 instructions but that is my best attempt at a summary.

I encourage you to read the most recent white paper update (link above) and review the new update when released.

For those asking what I expect forward, you can expect a very tight trading protocol with higher frequency and very limited downside at any given time.

When the software gets in to a sequence that is well structured and trending you can expect the previous ROI trajectory to be returned very quickly.

Do I think that will be this week? I am not totally convinced but I wouldn’t doubt it. Structure was returning to trade on Friday and when enough structure is returned to market wide trade it won’t take the software long (as we have experienced in other drawdowns since v3 inception).

In terms of changing the throttle going forward, I wouldn’t expect us to loosen the code throttle any time soon. I know in past on a number of occasions we have discussed this and this has been a challenge for us (the balance of risk vs return). HOWEVER, I can say with utmost certainty that we are at a time in our development where risk cannot be tolerated anytime soon. 

I will be sure to communicate clearly IN ADVANCE if this is going to change in future.

To be frank we have been in development for some time and we have the winning card that we can rely on – the long side win rate that is extremely high. We were simply trying to push our development to potentially garner the largest returns possible. But reality is reality and at a certain point in time you simply have to accept where you have come and let the return rate be what it is.

Watch how the software performs over the next month and we can re-look at it at a later time. Send me your thoughts after a month or so. A month of trade executions will explain much better than I can here.

For now lets enjoy some consistent returns without the stress. 2020 will be stressful enough in the markets, we don’t need to add more.

An updated oil trade report is due out for our clients later this evening also by the way. 

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).