New Personal Schedule to Accommodate Peak Trading Times:

Jeremy and I have resigned ourselves to perform daily oil machine trade code updates until only weekly updates are needed (weekly wasn’t going to do it).

Until now we have found ourselves doing the code updates early morning between 3 am and 7 am (then I prep for premarket).

This time slot for updates doesn’t work.

It doesn’t work because the machine trading (and my personal trading) needs to be firing during this time. The overnight session after midnight and in to early morning are important as the global regular markets are opening – many of the daily moves start there and if we’re updating code there is no trading. It also interferes with my equity day trades in to open because I am not prepared properly and swing trade positioning as needed in the premarket session.

So we’re moving the oil machine trade code updates to the time-slot between 8 pm to 12 Midnight each night because futures are normally quiet in that time slot.

We will always be in the trading room daily from regular USA open at 9:30 AM to 2:30 PM.

From 2:30 PM – 8:00 PM we will be on our personal time break daily.

Mid day trade set-ups will normally take place in the main trading room from Noon to 1 PM daily.

Reporting:

The mid day review today went over all the swing trades for 2019 this year so far. We have done exceptionally well with our 2019 swing trades considering the funky markets. This will be an important video (mid day from today) to review when we send it out. It will include a written report. We will next be adding more swing trade set-ups we are watching over the next few days to our swing trade portfolio for 2019.

The crude oil machine trading protocols will be emailed this evening. Early morning today we completed the code updates for all the protocols and now staff are completing the client documents for review of the protocols.

Machine Trade in Oil Alerts Profit / Loss:

The February P&L will be out soon for those that have asked.

January Oil Trade Profit and Loss is here:

Oil Trading Profit/Loss Jan 2019 | +63.05% +63,049.00 41 Wins 3 Losses 93% Win Rate Large Account | Crude Oil Trade Alerts

Trade Alerts:

As of the next session (midnight tonight) you can expect the frequency to increase (up to 200 per month) for the oil trade alerts. The last few days have been riddled with updates (including today) specifically because we’re tying the actual code to the public side protocol documents – they have to match so that when you the trader see an oil alert you can the reference the trade set-up protocol that the machine or myself are trading with. This will help our clients plan their own trade. Anyway, it was a large undertaking (like most others) than we expected. We’re wrapping it all up right now and the trade alerts will reflect completion and higher frequency in to this evening’s session forward. Thanks for your patience.

Onboarding New Clients:

Most commercial and private new clients have been onboarded as I am writing this. However, specific to the newest Legacy Member Clients we have not done the onboarding. I am working on my schedule two weeks out right now and will contact each of you over the next few days to get you scheduled for the onboarding conference call I need to do with each of you. Because it is a 24 access to my trading station it requires more instruction / preparation than most onboarding scenarios. Your fees will not start until after you are successfully onboarded.

Events: Special Webinar Series and Trade Coaching Boot Camp

We have a Special Webinar Event Series starting March 24 running in to April and May of 2019.

The first webinar up is for crude oil traders, the next will be Swing Trading and then so on. Don’t miss out, it may be the only webinar series we do of this kind.

Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil | Special Webinar Event Series | March 24: 10 AM – 6 PM

Intensive Crude Oil Trade Training Webinar.

Spend a Day With Me March 24, 2019 – I will be hosting a crude oil trading webinar. I will cover everything I know about crude oil trade in a one-time 8 hour special webinar event.

The webinar will cover my strategies for conventional and algorithmic oil trade and charting, intra-day trading, short term swing trading, longer term swing trading, trade sizing, time cycles, key set-ups and much more.

I will explain in detail how I maintain a win rate of better than 90% in crude oil trade (live recorded in our oil trading room and live alerted to our members).

Limited attendance of 25 persons to allow me to take questions and converse as needed to be sure we cover the trading concepts in detail.

Current member clients of Compound Trading Group receive 50% off. Use promo code: member

Early bird registrants prior to March 11, 2019 receive 30% off (cannot be used in conjunction with other offers). Use promo code: early.

To Register for the Crude Oil Trading Webinar Click Here.

Trade Coaching Boot Camp: 

Take your trading to the next level with our lead trader at our next trade coaching boot camp at Cabarete Beach, Dominican Republic April 19 – 21, 2019.

If you can’t attend in person you can attend the class online virtually and take part in question and answer as if you were in the boot camp live.

Register Here: Trade Coaching Boot Camp April 19, 20, 21 2019.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Crude Oil Trade Software Advisory:

This advisory is a follow up / adjustment to the advisory at this link:

Machine Learning Trade Software Advisory | Crude Oil: (1) Frequency (2) IDENT Program

Trade Frequency.

This is to advise that the crude oil machine trade software will now trigger all active protocols at a higher frequency as of 6:00 PM Monday March 4, 2019.

For example, on most occasions it will now fire trades at the majority of 1 minute model support and resistance and at most EPIC 30 Min Model support and resistance (quads, channels, mid channel, mid quad).

The various software trading protocols (based on specific models) will be distributed in 24 – 28 hours to stakeholders. There are a total of 42 and approximately 16 that we are currently running (on time-frames from 1 minute to 1 week charting models).

This adjustment to the software “throttle” will increase frequency considerably (approximately 160 – 200 executions or more possible per month).

The win rate will be lower than the previous two months but a higher return monthly is expected.

The minimum bar is an 80% win rate and a progressive increase in monthly return as software is tweaked, and an average draw down less than 12 ticks (3 – 16 ticks depending on the protocol). Average win greater than 12 ticks.

Staff will (when time allows) alert the trade protocol details to the trade alert feeds on Twitter and Discord private oil server.

Thank you.

 


February 22, 2019

RE: EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Machine Trading Software Advisory Specific to Trade Frequency Protocol “Throttle” and IDENT Program Description.

We are now near two months of running the machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts (CL).

During the testing phase, which will continue for some time as we adjust code instructions, the execution of trades by the program is “throttled”. Meaning specifically that the frequency of trade was specifically limited to the highest and then was adjusted to a higher win probability threshold.

The result of the initial testing achieved near 100% win side trade accuracy, but less than optimum trade frequency. Increased frequency may (will in our estimation) return a higher ROI – assuming the win rate percentage achieved is high enough. This of course is a complicated calculation within the code that reflects the win side average per trade return vs. loss side average per trade. In short, the loss side is programmed to be less (limited by way of higher frequency executions – tight stop triggers) and when trade is on win side the trade profit is increased via trade size that is progressively trimmed as the trade is in progress. Refer to private Discord oil trade chat server for real-time discussion between developers and traders for more detail.

An article is available at this link that displays some of (actionable by a human trader executing trades manually) the oil machine trading results, much of which was throttled considerably and much of which had human intervention – in other words, had the software been released to execute totally autonomous the returns would have been considerably higher – but we are testing. The highlighted trades returned a 63% increase on the “large account” test for the one month duration. This achievement was specifically to the alerted trades, not the higher frequency machine trades.

The “alerted trades” meaning that which could be considered actionable alerts to our subscribers. The machine software executed many times more trades but our current alert system platform (Twitter private member feed, Discord private chat server, Oil trading room live broadcast) cannot for the most part distribute alerts fast enough for the higher frequency trades to be considered actionable by a human executing trades manually (a trader digital platform is on the team WIP to remedy this). In consideration also is that the higher frequency trade protocols could easily be reverse engineered to expose the proprietary protocols under our IDENT program – this remains a discussion point internally and how the higher frequency trades will be shared is in question (more on that at a later date).

The “throttle” was initially set to approximately 20 x and over the course of fifty days progressively lowered to function near 10 x with less and less human intervention along the way. 20 x for example would result in twenty times less trade frequency than would otherwise be if the software was not “throttled” at all.

Today (Feb 22 at 2:11 AM EST) the code was adjusted considerably to be “throttled” to be less than 10x and will be lowered progressively over the next 7 trade days. The win rate vs. return as it would be calculated over a month is the achievement bar (goal) in focus. More on this objective and other clarification in near future updates.

Market condition will also result in variance of execution frequency as will holiday weeks specific to the model(s) divergence.

The main takeaway: In to next week the frequency of trade will be considerably higher with an objective being to find the most optimum throttle setting to achieve the highest return. The win rate is expected to near 80% and not near 100% and the return on equity on a monthly basis to increase considerably.

The 63% monthly return (monthly return in this instance meaning account equity size increase as it relates to alerted trades only) is a favorable start, however, our team believes 100% + return per month is consistently attainable (on average over a year) and in a perfect machine executed world 300 – 500% being optimally possible. For now our objectives are to achieve consistent wins at higher than 80% with a frequency of about 60 to 120 trades per month with a return averaging 100% per month (the bar).

The IDENT program is a protocol specifically to order flow identification of market participants achieved by way of historical pattern recognition of between 20 – 40 entities that we consider largest and approximately 200 entities that we consider important enough to attempt to track. The entities are prioritized in what we describe as an “alpha” order. The IDENT program is in large part the topic of this recent article at this link that describes the influence of machine trade in the crude oil trade market as experienced by our lead trader and is in large part the reason for the “intuitive like” nature of our software protocol.

The IDENT program seeks to enter trade direction with prioritized alpha order flow and exit in the same fashion. It is a proprietary process and the instruction set within the code architecture will in large part remain private.

For more information on how our development has progressed, refer to this link that will immerse you in a series of articles written from first hand perspective of the day to day trading of our lead trader with crude oil futures.

Thank you.

 

 

 

 

 

 


I Have Been Down the Rabbit Hole. 

I know my journey (of the last two and a half years) few have traveled. I know this to be so, like I know I breathe.

I didn’t know before I went down that hole, but I know now – how much I did not know before I went down that hole. And it’s huge. I knew nothing. Few know anything.

I can’t imagine many other disciplines in the world as off-side as this. Nothing, and I mean nothing in regular market banter, conventional stock exchange media or social media ever deals with the reality of what is down that hole. They don’t even know there is a hole (most).

Why is this topic of any importance to a trader or investor?

The topic? A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

A human trader cannot beat real machine learning software and

that will matter before the humans know it mattered.

Assuming the 80/20 rule applies to the markets, then 20 percent win 80 percent of the trades and reap 80% of the reward (ROE). I don’t know what the real numbers are – it was likely closer to 90/10 before machine learning entered the public stock markets. I would venture to guess it’s 97/3 or so now. But I don’t know.

The problem looks like this… what happens when the machines (run by less than .001% – a guess) garner 90% or more of the market return? Is that possible? I know it is, I know it may be true now, and if not it isn’t far away. What percentage of current liquidity is machine learning trade driven? What percentage of that is on the win side?

What does that look like in the future? How far away is that future? I will bet that future is here now and it has enormous effect on your earning potential (as a human trader). And I will put forward right here that it will end the way humans trade in global markets about five years out. It already has, the humans just haven’t accepted reality.

So why then is this so important? We’re here to win. We trade to win. To earn. To see return on equity. Return on time. The path forward is critical for any trader that derives their income from trading.

Early adopters will win. They will win because they will develop relationships with firms that will provide solutions. They will win because they will adopt the technology, relationships, financial rewards before the technology is out of reach (financially speaking). Or perhaps, never available at certain levels of society. Never available is more likely.

Early adopters will win.

The market is already littered with technology built on poor science. It simply doesn’t work. But the firms that have figured it out… have really figured it out. How long does it take them to hit market capacity? Will they share the technology? I say no, they won’t be sharing.

There are many questions.

At minimum, it’s prudent in my view for a trader to cozy up to the developers. This isn’t a sales pitch, we’re beyond selling anyone. We’ve completed our first machine learning software – we don’t need to sell you. So why write this article? Because I want to share something I’ve learned in the process of development that I think is of critical importance to anyone that has followed our journey. I feel a responsibility to share. Share what  you ask?

You can’t beat the machines. It’s not possible. And I know. I’m a damn good trader and I can’t even beat our first generation software with crude oil futures trade. I don’t think it has lost a trade this month (maybe it has but I don’t think so) and we’re near three weeks in to the month. And it’s not that it hasn’t lost, it is more about how it wins.

It knows before I do. It enters before I do. It trims in to positions and exits when I wouldn’t. It knows things I can’t know, I can’t see. It sees every line on every book in the library instantly, while I search for the right book on the shelf.

It sees every line on every book in the library instantly,

while I search for the right book on the shelf.

How you ask? It has intuitive like capabilities (as I do) but it can process the decisions (as if intuitively) many times faster than I. It has systematic approaches to trade (as do I) but it can process the decisions on thirteen time-frames considering the historical structure of the financial instrument and how each time-frame relates to the next and which structure or time-frame should trump various trade execution decisions (the rule-set).

It is simply faster. It can process 8000 rules and how each rule relates to the next in each of the structures on each time-frame instantaneously. That instantaneous decision would take me at least 12 months full time of charting, historical back testing and deep thought to conclude that one decision. The machine executed on the decision and left the trade behind before I glanced over and seen it was over. I didn’t have time to acknowledge it was leaving the scene.

It’s not only faster, but precise. It enters and exits with absolute precision.

Yesterday (President’s Day holiday) it executed on one trade. The biggest move of the day on a slow day and it executed before the move happened. It shorted oil, I sat watching thinking why the heck is it short here? Tick tock tick tock boom, oil dropped about 37 points near instant, on a low range boring holiday trading day. And it covered in a flash before I could process why exiting the trade at that juncture of trade on the chart was valid. It is fast and it acts as if it is intuitive. And it is only first generation software.

Here’s a post that shows the trade;

A trade or two prior to yesterday’s was the same way. I couldn’t believe what I was watching.

Here’s another example, it knows over and over again where the real move in a time frame is before the move.

And an example of how precise it is in comparison to my personal trade executions;

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in oil trade account gains and it was yoked to a human at all times that throttled its executions by about 10 to 1. What am I saying? It could have traded up to 10x the return (assuming the same win rate and ROE on each trade would have transpired had it been non-yolked).

It’s first month (January) it rang up 63% in account gains.

Over the last few days we’ve allowed it autonomy – to a point. It can execute with autonomy when it is executing but we still have it throttled to about 5 to 1, this will be slowly adjusted / released. This week is a holiday week so there is issue in the structure of the models so it will be a slower than usual machine trading week for our model, but next week will be a mad house – a slaughter house. I’m not exaggerating. It doesn’t lose. Okay, it does – maybe, but rarely and for next to nothing for loss when and if it does. If it’s wrong… its out and fast.

If you think this is exaggeration, visit our public facing Discord trading chat room (click here) and randomly ask anyone to step forward and tell you I’m wrong (members I am referring to). Or check out the alert feed yourself. I win around 90% of my personally executed trades in oil (yes documented), it (the machine learning software) wins something nearing 100%. But its wins are the real meat of each trade. My trades are choppy. It harvests the move in a way I cannot. The compound return effect on the difference is astronomical. Click here for a recent article I posted about compound trading gains in oil trade.

We have been working day and night for over two years to develop machine trading software that really works. Why do I say “that really works?” Because most is garbage. Below are the reasons why most algorithmic trading is a waste (how ours was developed) and why you the human trader cannot beat real machine trading execution in the stock market.

Take four people (average at any given time in the development process), have them work 60 – 80 hours a week for 2.5 years. That’s about 14,000 hours. If the methodology used is right you then have at least another 14,000 hours to refine the software rule-set along with constant updates etc. We have now completed the first 14,000 hours. What has that experience taught me? Primarily that a human trader will never beat machine software. And that doesn’t consider machine software that becomes intuitive like – AI, Artificial Intelligence.

Here are just a few (and I mean a few) reasons why you will never out trade the machine – specific to the methodology of development we used to develop our first machine trading software for crude oil futures contracts CL. Yes, I am going to tell you how we did it. Why? Because I won’t tell you how our intuitive development is implemented, that is proprietary and always will be. Here’s the nuts and bolts:

  1. ROI – First month the machine garnered a 63% increase in trade account size and that was only the actionable oil trade alerts. Not the machine HFT returns. This means the software executed many more trades than what was alerted. We can only alert what a human can type fast enough to alert that could be actionable for our membership. Next on our list is a real-time feed for our members (automated alerts). In other words, the machine gained much more than 63% on its trading account, but that is private and always will be. What is public is what we alert that is actionable by a human trader executing trades manually. We are judged on what data can deliver as actionable to our clients.
  2. INSTANT EXECUTION OF DEEP TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE – Take thirteen time-frames of crude oil (the charts) and find the structure of the financial instrument on each time frame (this is not systematic machine trading, this is an intuitive like process). Not to mention the time involved and cost. The human can’t process decisions on thirteen time-frames (both systematic and intuitive like and as they relate to each other, as described earlier in this article).
  3. INTUITIVE EXECUTION, INSTANT – Each time frame structure as it relates to each other. Continuing specifically the intuitive like component of point 2 above… imagine constructing the models for the structure of the financial trading instrument on thirteen time frames, that in of itself is a massive undertaking. Then being able to almost intuitively determine how intra-day trade relates to each and which trumps the other. This is massive.
  4. FAST EXECUTION. The machine can out execute any human with orders in and out and trailing and on and on. Complex structures of entries and exits and more instantaneously. This is critical for return on each trade.
  5. PRECISE EXECUTION. Have you ever watched crude oil trade on the one minute chart? Precise execution with orders that change frequently in a flash of a second increases returns on each trade considerably. You can’t imagine the importance until you’ve been down the hole.

I am not speaking to;

I’m not speaking to conventional hedge fund robo adviser software. Most of it is junk designed to rob the masses taking advantage of the casino mind or lazy investor.

I’m not speaking to high frequency trading that leverages machine speed, order flow or execution locality. That is a form of HFT we have no interest in. We want transferable knowledge as it applies to the natural trading structure of the financial markets. Transferable in that the process used to derive the model for one can be applied to another.

I’m not speaking to run of the mill python code some random developed in his/her basement with 500.00 and an idea of how an instrument trades (the systematic process).

And finally, I am not speaking to the news oriented bots running software trades on intra-day media or geopolitical driven events.

The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning.

The intuitive like component, beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies. The intuitive like component is artificial intelligence – machine deep structured learning. It is (as it applies to where we are now) the early building blocks of autonomous machine learning trade.

Beyond systematic machine trading is where the magic is, this is where the depth is, where the future is and the success of such an initiative lies.

How did we get intuitive like software to work? What does intuitive like mean to us?

Here’s a glimpse… a real trader with decades of experience traded real-time for hundreds of hours live with software developers that extracted the intuitive like human understanding – real-time, asking questions, engaging in the why and how at each tick in the chart.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code. Only now… we have manifold times more horse-power.

We lived together inside the trade, inside the natural trading structure of the financial instrument (crude oil) and then we replicated its nature in to the code.

The new brain – the new trader, the intuitive like software… can execute hundreds of times faster on thousands of times the information second by second. Every tick on the chart is a complete new set of rules that need confronting, they need to be examined from every angle, back tested, related to each time frame, a plan derived and a trade has to executed right now. A series of right now. With precision.

The bullet hits before you hear it.

This is why the human will never beat (real) machine learning trade software. The only question that determines how good the software is, is how good the trader was that the developers used to extract from that created the entity (the software) and what process was used to do that. The cost? 14,000 – 28,000 hours at hundreds of dollars per hour – for a generation one package. And that is just the start.

It is a different world and we’re not by far the first out of the gate. But I know we’re running one of the better models out there. That I do know. Because it wins when it goes in to battle.

Any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier.

I also know that any trader worth their salt will soon, if not already, understand they need a plan to engage this new frontier. If you don’t you will regret not taking the time to forge your future. Now.

Best and peace,

Curt

Learn How to Day Trade Crude Oil Here:

Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil – real life articles / examples from an expert crude oil day trader.

Read Our Press Release About The SOVORON™ agreement (click here):

About SOVORON™

SOVORON™ offers a unique trading service providing clients with technology application based Machine Trade of personal investment accounts. To explore their unique client service structure click here http://sovoron.com/ or call 1-849-861-0697.

About Compound Trading Group.

Compound Trading Group is a market data provider to retail, commercial enterprise and institutional traders.

Trader Services – Compound Trading Group provides trader data services such as algorithm development, periodicals, trade coaching, trade alerts and live trading rooms. The near term objective is a digital dashboard environment for traders to fully engage machine trade and intelligent assisted trade data offered only at the commercial enterprise level.

Commercial Enterprise Services – Compound Trading Group develops financial instrument algorithm models and provides connect-ability to its proprietary AI Machine Trading software / data (representing various financial instruments) to private trade and institutional firms. Compound Trading Group also provides enterprise trader training, integration services, custom software / data constructs and strategic partner development opportunities.

Learn more at https://compoundtrading.com.

 

 

 


“Tell me about your algorithms for trading stocks and how you are achieving these winning results?”

Feb 20, 2019 algorithm development article here:

That was a recent question posed by a reporter during a telephone call in preparation for an upcoming show I am booked to appear on. The reporter’s question caused me serious pause… the “how and w hy” started to consume my thought process. And, there have been many, from friends and family to our subscribers that have asked similar questions. I get it; what causes someone to dive deep enough to actually do that?

The answer is really quite simple, “Necessity is the mother of invention.”

So here is a bit about my journey so far, how the algorithms were developed, and how they may or may not help you with your trading.

I Needed to Win – The Market Changed.

I trade. I have been trading since I was twenty-one years old (so almost thirty years). But recently, the stock market has changed in three distinct ways that make it more difficult for a trader to always operate in the ultimate position, being “the trader’s edge”.

  1. Computer algorithms (Jim Cramer commented on this topic recently on Mad Money on CNBC).
  2. The Federal Reserve monetary policy, this point being the most important as far as I’m concerned.
  3. The sideways markets the last few years.

So I set out to solve the problem for myself: how do I get back my trader’s edge? And if I can’t, then I shouldn’t trade.

Most Stock Market Algorithms Do Not Work or Are Too Expensive.

Yes, it is true. Similar to how 90% or more of day trader’s fail, at least 90% of stock market algorithms either do not work or are outright scams preying on people that are failing. Maybe they had good intentions when they set out to develop their algorithms, but most do not work.

The majority of these algorithms are high frequency or FX market-type automated tools (“bots”) that represent some form of winning percentages to the public. However, the truth of it is that the successful algorithms, the real good ones that actually do perform well, are simply out of reach to the retail public. A bottom of the barrel algorithm costs minimum 4,000.00 per month and I have looked into some (available at a retail level) upward 200,000.00 per month or more. If any of these “out of reach” algorithms are even made available at all, you will pay dearly. And why not, I suppose? If they work they’re worth it, especially algorithms that can hit 80%, 90% or more.

The problem for me was, I couldn’t afford upwards 200,000.00 per month for a decent algorithm. I am a doubter by nature, and price tags within these ranges put my hard-earned money at risk. So, I set out to figure the mechanics out on my own.

My Mission: Develop the Math and Start Making Public Calls.

While I was in the Caribbean with my family last winter, I started to work on the math. When I felt I was getting close, I started to publish calls on Twitter for the six algorithms I was working on (in the quietest way possible, but still making calls so it was public and undeniable if the math actually worked – which I doubted by the way, so I was really extending myself there). The six algos I started to work on are Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $SPY (S&P 500), $GLD (Gold), $SLV (Silver), $DXY (US Dollar Index), and the $VIX (volatility index). I have also worked on natural gas – but the math is “off” so I don’t know that I will ever publish it.

Over time, the calls I was making (based on the algorithms and not my personal trader bias) started to hit. I was working on different time frames from intra-day, to swing, and months out… and they’ve all been hitting at better than 90% (the tighter the time cycle the higher the probability of a win hit). When my own trader/human bias was involved, I was lucky to still be hitting 60%. This was the most difficult and humbling part of it for me, the realization that my mind as a trader couldn’t outperform the math.

“How can simple math beat me, the ultra, omnipotent trader?”

Seven months later, and I still struggle with trusting the algo calls (the simple math), but as time moves on, I’m having less difficulty with this.

So What Are These Algorithms?

Simply put, these algorithms are based on:

  1. Traditional math (simple logic), which involves considerable weight toward simple average.
  2. Traditional algorithm modeling disciplines.
  3. Traditional stock market charting and indicators.

It is a mixture of these three components that constitute what the algorithms we use are based on.

The most important thing to understand is these algorithms are not high frequency/bot or “automated-type” algorithms. And they are not cryptic balls using a “crystal ball”; they are scientific and represent simple math. There is no crystal ball, no “top-secret” artificial intelligence, and no geopolitical reasoning.

Visit this link for a list of the most common algorithms found/used on the stock market.

My algorithms are different, in that they are probability algorithms based on the most absolute logic available, designed with the goal in mind to provide the trader (whether it be for intra-day, swings, or investing) an edge in a specific stock, currency or commodity by representing the conclusions of the math on a traditional 2D stock chart. In other words,

Keep it Simple Stupid! If you can’t represent the conclusions of the algorithm on a chart that a trader can use to trigger their own trades, then it is useless as far as I am concerned.

The more these algorithms can be used in traditional charting and on similar platforms, the better. They are, after all, developed by taking traditional charting indicators (that are represented on a chart) to start with. So why not? I suppose there is an argument for the high frequency bots and other tools in my category – but for my purpose, that wasn’t my goal or intended use and purpose.

So think of it like this: when you learn how to use the Fibonacci retracement indicator, for example, it is represented on a chart in a specific way. That is, in its simplest form, what we are doing. We are representing our algorithmic indicators in a specific way on a chart for the trader to use. Fibonacci is an algorithm in itself, as are the other indicators traders use everyday (most traders don’t think of them that way – but they are). Its just that we are taking what we discover to be the best indicators for specific instruments and extracting the best probabilities from a group of indicators and representing that as a probability to the trader – on a chart, in a specific way. It turns out, based on conversations with software developers I’ve had, that this is a very technical process called “reduction”: representing one problem as something “just as difficult” or “easier” than a complex one.

Here is an interesting Ted Talk video that puts a perspective on it that is more similar to what our work objectives and methodology involves:

More Specifically, How Is Each Algorithm Processed?

The easy part is the math, but representing the mathematical conclusions on a 2D chart in such a way that is easily usable by a trader is the hard part. The math is simple (in that the math and charting is standard and nothing crystal ball like – it is, a scientific process) but once you have the results it then becomes how the heck you get that on a chart – and for all the different time frames. The real challenge is how to project the results of these mathematical processes onto a chart, for all the different time frames, that is also human-readable and “intuitive.”

In its most basic form, the development process can be detailed as follows:

  1. Simple Averages: Stock charts present endless opportunities to run averages. What is the average price annually? Last 4 years? Last month? What is the average price of crude at 10:30 Wednesday morning? What is the average drop in crude at EIA report time? Average spike? What is the average spike in the S&P at 2:30 PM? And on and on and on and on. So for each algorithm there are hundreds of averages or patterns as a result of averages – or better described as probabilities.
  2. Indicators: Take the traditional charting for the equity, currency or commodity you are working with and use each time frame you want to work with and determine which traditional indicators work better than others. Then weigh each indicator in accordance to its “win rate”. Then take that data and relate it to step 1 above. Simple right? Simple logic if you ask me. Different equities, currencies and commodities trade different in relation to various traditional indicators. So it’s just charting on steroids. But – using simple logic.
  3. Modeling: This gets a little more complex. Then you take the various traditional algorithmic disciplines that you understand can be applied to stocks and begin to run simple models (patterns, averages, timing, price in relation to time, etc). One very important part in this is removing the anomalies. In other words, every stock, currency or commodity will have anomalies, which take it out of (remove it from) its natural trading pattern. For example, Fed talk affects the S&P 500, or currency is affected by currency wars and oil is affected by rig counts and inventories. So you remove the anomalies and you work with your modelling. This is where you get your quadrants from by the way.

Then, you need to take this data and represent it on a traditional chart so that a trader can use the information to gain an advantage in specific scenarios (in different time frames for swing, daytrading and investing) – the trader’s edge.

This is the hard part – representing all that data in an easy to understand way for the trader on a chart.

So How Do I Use The Algorithm?

Each algorithm is charted as I mentioned, so it becomes a process of understanding how to use the algorithmic chart indicators (that we develop and provide) to your advantage. A quick visit to an EPIC the Oil Algo blog post may help understanding (keep in mind one post won’t show all the indicators because they are a running story – but you will get the point). It really comes down to time frames of trade for swings, investing or day trading and the specific indicators. The primary indicators we provide our subscribers are (and they are growing):

  1. Time/Price Cycle: This indicator is proving to be very helpful. You will find on my personal feed, or for example on Epic’s Twitter feed, how absolutely and incredibly accurate these have been. Time/price cycles are important because they signal a change in trend – and knowing when a trend is going to change is the best edge a trader can have. This has been my number one edge because I scale into trades. I day trade when a currency, commodity or index stock is at an inflection point with the objective being to get on the right side of the trade. Once I am on the right side of the trend it is hammer down time for me – and truth be told it is vital because you only get so many chances in that over a five year period for each commodity, index or currency. We provide these as written times of the week (day and hour) for our traders.
  2. Alpha Algo Targets: Targets are great. Having targets that hit with regularity are even better. Our algos are hitting targets at 80-95% depending on the algorithm and time frame you are looking at. Calls days out we are hitting between 80 – 90%, calls months out we are hitting in that range too (but our algos are only seven months old so data is difficult to brag about) and intra-day we are hitting well over 90% with most of the algos. If you review an EPIC member blog post you will see these as red circles on the chart.
  3. Alpha Algo Trend-Lines: These are trend lines just like traditional trend-lines that are established primarily as a result of averages (taking into consideration time/price cycles) and how the price of the equity interacts with price. In other words, algorithms out there are using averages to such a degree that we can actually determine where the lines are because price is affected when the price is traded across the line upward or down. These anomalies in price action are a result of machine trading. Why is this important to know? Because the trend-lines act like traditional trend-lines in that they represent support and resistance. If you review an EPIC member blog post you will see these as red dotted lines on the chart.
  4. Algorithmic Trading Quadrants (or trading ranges): Quadrants are more complicated to explain in short, but like described in the Ted Talk video above, we have discovered quadrants or geometric shapes in which stocks will trade, most specifically within large liquidity environments such as with currencies, commodities or indices. The quadrants are represented on our charting for our traders only when they are predictable and provide an edge. When they are in play they are precise to say the least and provide a trader with pin-point sniper intra-day trading (because you are in essence trading along with the machines). These quadrants can be intra-day or even represented on up to 5 year charts we have discovered. Great examples of these wider time frame calls would be our calls with the US Dollar, Silver and Gold – nobody believed the calls we started making months ago and all of our price targets have recently hit – it blew people away.

Here is an example algorithm represented on a 2D chart:



Target Called Days in Advance! On Fire! $USOIL by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com

Why Liquidity is Critical and Why I Use Instruments like $UWTI (now called $UWT)

Specific to day trading with these algorithms, liquidity is important because you are taking advantage of (exploiting) not only that you know (better than most) what the machines are doing (which provides a distinct edge), but you are more importantly exploiting what other traders are going to do as a result of what the machines have done intra-day (so the goal is to know in advance what the machines will do at various decisions).

In other words, if I know that crude is going to spike because it is near an algo line and I know that when it crosses that line to the upside it will either spike or drop and I know that $REN, for example, is squeezing, then I can exploit that because oil will spike as it crosses the trendline, as will $REN or $UWT.

So my advance knowledge in relation to the probability of that spike enables me to exploit that spike in an equity or ETN that returns unusual short time frame returns.

This page link on our website will show you real life examples of how EPIC the Oil Algo allows me to exploit the algorithmic knowledge I have.

Liquidity gets me predictability for spikes that I need for entries and it also allows me to chip out of large entries when needed in a predictable way.

Where and How Are The Algorithms Available?

We have a main trading room that is like any other trading room where I perform trades during regular market hours. Our algorithmic charting is represented at times in that room but never in whole and only as they are in their initial development phase. Once the algorithm is at a point of proven predictability we then will move it to its own trading room (like EPIC the Oil algo is getting his own 24 hour trading room for crude oil futures).

Also, subscribers to algorithm newsletters get regular updates on that specific algorithm (most are daily but can be intermittent depending on indicators changing). So the subscribers to the specific algorithms are receiving all the algorithmic indicators, trading levels, targets, algo lines etc on a regular basis – subscribers to the main trading room are receiving the benefit (or bonus) of algorithmic charting at various times while an algorithm is in its infancy and being tested or represent in different ways for various reasons.

Algorithm Performance

The performance of the algorithms has completely surprised me – I seriously thought I would be doing great if they achieved a 60% win rate – 90% plus I never fathomed. But what is more interesting (and keep in mind they are only seven months old and each is at a different level of development) is that they are getting more refined and more predictable (with higher win rates) as time goes on. So this is, at least so far, very encouraging.

Plans Going Forward

Right now we are in what we consider a beta phase. We have a main trading room and we have started the process of publishing the six different algo newsletters that represent the algorithmic and traditional charting. Subscribers can use just the room, our swing trading newsletter service or the algo newsletters independent of each other.

This Monday, we publish the remaining charting for all the algos – they are all in a development process at different stages and some of them we haven’t published the charting yet.

Early 2017 we expect EPIC to have his own 24 hour room for oil futures trading and we expect the other five algorithms to be completely proven within a few months. Our oil algo is farthest along in terms of development/proof-of-concept, and our Gold, Silver and US Dollar algos are not far behind oil and are further along in the process than our S&P 500 and VIX algos. Gold, Silver and US Dollar algos should be completely proven out by March 1, and the S&P 500 and VIX by May 1. We are also working on a natural gas algo (as mentioned above), but it isn’t as predictable.

We have others traders coming on in early 2017 to run rooms that focus on trading options, swing trades and momentum plays, as well.

Our future forward plans include a multi-room platform wherein our vision for a democratized environment is developed for Wall Street (as it applies to algorithms being available to the common man – ones that actually work), and we have plans for big data and artificial intelligence (with the goal of increasing our win rates).

Our Guarantees & Pricing Structures

Recently, I had a few traders ask me about our price increases, so I thought I would comment a bit here on that with our reasoning and a Christmas guarantee.

Our trading room is within the typical range at 199.00 a month (for a room that runs charting, screen sharing, algo development, detailed trade broadcasting, a detailed daily premarket newsletter with charting, etc) and with the initial discount code of 38.2% on an annual membership of 990.00/with discount just over 600.00 (or about 50.00) a month – that’s a steal in my thinking.

Our algos currently range in price from 30.00 a month to 500.00 per month depending on how far along they are in development. And even the most expensive, at 500.00 per month, is available at 1,999.00 per year and with a 38.2% discount on the first order is just over 1,200.00, or 100.00 per month for a high performance algorithm.

If a trader can’t return that 100.00 per month or more with EPIC or the 50.00 with the trading room, then they are doing something wrong with the information provided or the information is faulty and we shouldn’t be in this to begin with (the trader’s edge is the whole purpose for doing this). And even at the monthly rates without the one time discount, there should be no reason a trader can’t get a fantastic return on investment. My point? The algorithm or service you are subscribing to and its related cost should be in accordance to the return on investment – I believe without a shadow of a doubt that our pricing achieves that.

The first guarantee we will give you is that the algorithm prices are going up as the algorithms are developed (and they need to as more staff are hired, more office space is needed and more equipment is needed to run the calculations) – but we will guarantee our early adopters the original price paid as long as they continue to subscribe – we don’t care if that is for years – early adopters get the bonus. Late adopters will have to pay fair market value and that’s totally fair and equitable in our thinking. See the terms and conditions on this before subscribing please.

And to our second guarantee, to be absolutely sure we have done everything we can to be sure we stand on this we are prepared to guarantee your investment in our service. In other words, if you sign on we’ll guarantee your first subscription cost 100% – more specifically that you will at least return that amount of profit within the duration of the subscription to cover the cost. There are some conditions, specific to your sharing your trades live and providing documentation (terms and conditions on this guarantee you will be able to find on our website before Dec 24, 2016). So if you agree to the terms we will guarantee that for you. So we’re taking the risk out – that’s the confidence we have in our service.

And finally, if you are a full-time student paying your own way or underprivileged in an extreme manner and don’t mind sharing your story with us and you need a leg up, then send a private DM to me personally on my Twitter and I will consider anything to give back to the community that has been good to me (we may also have some traders that would consider sponsoring you). Either way, we can look at that on a case-by-case basis and I’m not guaranteeing anything because we each only get so many of these “credit codes” to distribute annually. My Twitter handle is @curtmelonopoly. Do me a favor and try and do it before our media interviews start at the end of December 2016.

The link to our subscription shop page is here.

So that’s my post on why our algorithms are different, how we came along to launch a service like this, how I use the algorithms for my trading. pricing structure and our plans going forward.

Any questions at all email us anytime at info@compoundtrading.com.

Best to you and yours!

Curtis

Our algo Twitter feeds:

$WTI (@EPICtheAlgo), $VIX (@VexatiousVIX), $SPY (@FREEDOMtheAlgo), $GLD (@ROSIEtheAlgo), $SLV (@SuperNovaAlgo), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index).

Article Topics: Compound Trading, Algorithms, Trading, What Makes Our Algos Different, Stocks, Trading, Oil, S&P 500, Silver, US Dollar, $VIX, Volatility, Gold