How to Day Trade Crude Oil – Price Range (Low & Highs), Trends / Channels, Reversals, Sizing (Trims, Adds, Stops) and Timing – Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 2 Premium).

Introduction:

This article is part 2 of the previous public post, “How to Know & How We Alerted (In Advance) Crude Oil Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High, Trend (PT 1)“.

I apologize for the detail in these posts, but the reality is that it takes a detailed systematic rules-based process to day trade crude oil.

You want to win in a way that provides the highest probability of win rate and return? It takes skill. Skill requires knowledge and refinement of execution.

We have been developing machine trade software for some time – this has taught us a lot, and I’m not talking about a simple trading bot kind of development.

The process of development had us trading and back testing in every time frame, every structure, every set up, every range, sequence within all, trend, order flow and more.

As we learned we shared much of this information with our clients (yes learning, after 30 years of experience).

You can read a recent client memo that explains the multi-month process we embarked on, where we are at now with development and where we are going in future here, “Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Complete | Rule-Set Strategies, Alerts, Accounts Traded, What’s Next?

The goal now is to simplify the processes (the most probable crude oil trading set-ups) and provide our clients with the most simple, clear, systematic how-to documents, videos, coaching, trading room guidance etc so that traders can duplicate what we are doing to achieve success in day to day trade.

In short, we have coded our machine trade software to trade only that which we know has the highest probability of win rate success and we will endeavor to share this with our community.

We know where we can and where we cannot win, and going forward we will only be trading that which we know with high probability that we will win.

Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its win rate (we are not experimenting going forward, we are done).

Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its return rate and over all success.

We expect this process to take about 90 trading days. After this, we expect to only be doing maintenance to the software.

So how do you duplicate what we learned? See below.

General Requirements of a Successful Oil Day Trader:

Strategy is Mandatory: When you sit down to day trade crude oil futures you need a clear plan.

  • Your trading plan has to be based in reality.
  • Reality is the nature of the instrument you are trading.
  • You can have all the plans you want, but if you do not know the nature of the instrument you are trading, you will lose.

Trading Edge: This article is a study of the nature of crude oil intra-day price action and how to execute trades so that you maintain the highest probability of success – your trading strategy edge.

  • When you acquire a trading edge for a specific instrument of trade then you become profitable. This requires knowing the nature of the instrument better than your competition, refining your process and then executing the process without thinking.
  • This is not unlike a professional tennis, football, hockey or whatever player. Think warrior, think training, think skills.You have to be able to execute – pull the trigger, without thinking. After all, your primary competitors are now machines, more specifically many are AI, and they don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Nature of the Instrument of Trade and Associated Returns: Crude oil embodies one of the most complicated (abstract) natures of trade (structure of instrument) – but also possesses one of the most profitable opportunities for a trader.

  • The structures of trade on various time-frames for crude oil are complicated but at the same time they are not, they are logical, mathematical, geometric and follow a natural order. You just need to know what that order / structure is and what the nature of trade is within each time-frame of structure.
  • Oil trading provides significant return potential because it is so structured (yet complicated for the casual observer or trader). Trade set-ups can be repeated over and over again on each time-frame daily, weekly, monthly and so on.
  • Crude oil can be traded with CL futures contracts, ETN’s on the regular equity markets (leveraged instruments of trade such as DWT and UWT) and with various other FX products and instruments. Most of which provide opportunity for leverage.

Welcome to the World Cup: I often say that if you can trade crude oil successfully, you can trade anything.

  • I am instantly bored day trading equities and swing trading equities, commodities etc now that I’ve been schooled by the best of the best AI’s and traders in crude oil futures. I still day and swing trade equities (always will), but it is like going back to grade school.

Success! So You’re an Expert Oil Trader Now.

  • An expert oil trader knows (with weighted probability) when and where to enter and exit trades (when and where to size in to his/her entries), when and where the trade should be trimmed or see adds, what the likely price trend is to be (on various time-frames), when and where price trend is likely to reverse and how to allow for appropriate variance on stops.
  • In short, an expert oil trade understands when structured timing is or is most likely to be in play for the most predictable trades and what each time-frame will look like (the nature of the structure within each time-frame). Various market timing becomes key.

Oh Wait: Fundamentals are Required.

  • Add to all the above requirements… an expert oil trader also needs a keen understanding of fundamental and geopolitical frame-works.

The Competition: Welcome to the Matrix.

  • The majority of crude oil is now traded by machine (and much of that is now sophisticated AI, and I’m not talking simple bots that you see advertised for retail traders in FX markets).
  • In short, the goal is to know what the machines (that control the most liquidity) are doing, how they trade, what decisions they are executing their trades to, etc.
  • If you know what the machines are doing you can then join the ride. You can be (with high probability) on the right side of the trade.

Master the above requirements and you then have some of the primary skills that make for a successful oil trader.

High Priority Signals / Associated Skills Needed For A Successful Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy:

Below I list in point form the signals you will need to know and then need to execute with precision. It is important to note here that the points below intertwine – in other words, the various points relate to each other symbiotically, they affect each other and become the nature of trade.

For simplicity I numbered them to assist with your study, your focus. You can use this like a check-list before entering a trade or before starting your day. Or, if you lost a trade (your discipline is off) you can review the numbered list below before taking another trade.

The information will provide you clues as to how the machine software is now coded, coded specifically to the highest probability win rate and being tweaked over the next 90 days to increase size and return to point of losing and then will be trimmed back and then idle.

The information below will provide a manual human trader the highest opportunity of success if you focus on the study needed and the repetitive training to then execute trades without thinking (with limited emotion).

The conventional and algorithmic charting required to execute the set-ups explained below are included in our client oil trading bundle (newsletters, alerts, trading room).

# 1 – Range of Trade.

Knowing the trading range is really critical for your trading strategy. Having a plan for the most probable high & low area of trade for the time-frame you are going to trade is paramount. This is accomplished with conventional and algorithmic charting.

This is the range on charting time-frames if you draw a simple horizontal line at top and bottom. Approximately where is the range?

Your positioning bias is then to be short at the top of the range and long at the bottom of the range (with many other considerations that make up your position size, where you trickle out, whether you trade the ebb and flow within the range, your stops and more).

If the over all trend is bullish you won’t size in as much on the short side of the upper range of trade on the time frame you are trading and the opposite is true if the over all trend is bearish.

It may be that you 1. enter your trade at the range limits and don’t touch the trade and exit at the opposite range. Or, 2. you may trickle out size as the trade progresses. Or, 3. you may (expert level here) even trade the ebb and flow of the range.

And then boom! you catch the trend reversal and repeat the process… over and over. Some days many times a day. This is the opportunity for an oil trader that equity traders don’t have available to them.

  • Intra-Day Trading Range. Right Now What is the Trading Range? Where is Trade Likely To Trend Next When it Reverses?
    • What is the playing field today? Knowing where the range of trade is right now on the charting, where it has been recently, where it is likely to be near future. What is the current range of trade? What is the likely trend going forward?
  • Wider Trading Range Time-Frames.
    • Knowing where the trading range is intra-day is important but also know where it has been on a wider time frame is also important to know. This is important because if trade leaves the current range you then know where the next range is likely to be.
    • Why is it important to know the trading range on various time-frames and where the trend is likely to reverse?
      • Support and Resistance. The key support and resistance areas on intra-day and wider trading ranges become key for decisions in the trade range itself – areas for entry, exits, adds, trims, sizing and more.
      • Precise Entry and Exit. Knowing the range of trade is important for high probability trade entries and exits and this can significantly increase your return on each trade (if you can enter and exit with precision).
      • Managing Stops and Sizing. Range of trade is also important for sizing your initial trade entry, trimming your trade size and / or adding to your trade. The idea here is to enter trades at the outside edges of the most probable areas / range of trade, weighing your entry size and stops more so when you are trading the most probable trend of trade and it is also important for knowing when to trickle out / trim positions as the range trade progresses.
  • Using Conventional Charting and Algorithmic Models to Determine Range.
    • Check your conventional charting on various time-frames (1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly) and do not ignore the algorithmic models (these are where the machines will bias sizing).
    • Generally an oil day trader is trading the range of the 1 minute through to 4 hour hour. I most often am using the 1, 5, 15 and 30 minute structured algorithmic models.
    • When you have an understanding of the range frame-work on conventional and algorithmic charting you are now prepared with your range trading bias for the day. You are also ready for the most probable areas of trend reversal.

# 2 Trend of Trade and Channels.

Where are the general trends of trade on various time-frames? Is price trending up or down? This can be difficult to assess when you consider the nature of crude oil – this is why the static range (as above in #1) is so important. Also, are there channels of trade in play on various time-frames?

  • Price Trends. Know What the Current Trend Is.
    • Is there a channel of trade or a range to work with? Are there channel set-ups within various time-frames of charting and times of day or week that tend to repeat?
  • Reversals. Where and when is the trend likely to end / reverse.
    • Key support and resistance areas on various time frames. Here again, range of trade, trend and trading channels.
    • Algorithmic structured time cycles. There are time cycles on each algorithmic model. You need to know these well. The machines are coded to bias trades at these time cycles. This is critical.
    • Time of day or week considerations for various markets in play or events such as EIA and daily settlement for example) and what the likely trend will be next for the continuation of your trading plan.

# 3 – Time of Day.

Time of day is critical. You need to bias your trade size, your expectation of key support and resistance being respected, your expectation of trends finding continuation etc.

  • Early futures trade. Early futures trade is usually sloppy unless there is a geopolitical event. It usually has near zero range. It usually does not respect any of the conventional or algorithmic structures on charting. Use extreme caution.
  • As Global Markets Open. As markets in Asia and Europe etc open then trade starts to get more and more structured. Usually around 3 am Eastern trade become more structured. This can start earlier at around 11:00 PM the night prior but I like to avoid trade until at least 3:00 AM Eastern.
  • The session between 3:00 AM to 7:30 AM (all approximate ranges of time) typically is a session in of itself and a reversal is very possible around 7:30. Quite often if trade has been trending up during this session then the air is slowly let out of the balloon for the hand off that occurs around 8:00 AM for the US day traders.
  • Then around 8:00 AM you will start to see volume increase significantly, especially on the half hour marks leading in to the regular US Market open.
  • At 8:30 AM, 9:00 and 9:30 this is where the trend for the morning session for the regular US market is usually determined.
  • Around 11:00 AM the trend is then consolidated for a further move up in the afternoon session, or sideways range bound trade or a reversal. The opposite of course is true.
  • Prepare for some volatility around settlement at 2:30 PM and around API Tuesday 4:30 and EIA Wednesday at 10:30 AM.
  • Friday afternoons can trend price in a way that is not possible on most days.
  • Many days you will find that late afternoon is a slow melt up, melt down or sideways. Shorting the melt up is foolish.
  • Above are just some examples.

# 4 – Intra Day Time Cycles.

Time cycles have been discussed some above. The basic consideration here is that each algorithmic model (on various time-frames) includes time cycles that are foolish to ignore. The larger the time-frame the more important the time cycle.

  • For example, there is a large time cycle on the weekly model that expired (or peaked) last week. On such a large time cycle a week either way is considered and then trend thereafter becomes weighted heavily in bias of trade.
  • Another example is the 5 minute algorithmic charting model, there are time cycle peaks every 3 hours within a specific structure. These are key to understand for a day trader. Not just where the time cycle peaks are, but the nature of trade around each peak.

The algorithmic reports and the discord member chat room are key for learning how to take advantage of the time cycles.

# 5 – Cut Losses Fast. Using Stop Losses. Sizing.

Crude oil trade is vicious. It can ruin a trader’s confidence fast. It can also destroy a trader’s account.

If you have the rules in place, you know the structure of trade, you are sizing in accordance to your threshold appropriate to your account size then you will be fine. Capital protection is by far one of the most important skills you can acquire.

For my personal account this is critical. This changes somewhat when you know that you can make up the bad trade(s) – you have the skill-set and just have to reset. But until you have the proven experience it is important to protect your capital. This discipline can also be different if you are developing software as in our case (we achieved 63% returns and then lost up to 30% in a month developing the software). But this again is different because (as in our case) when you stop developing and simply deploy software to execute to only trade what is most probable you know it will make up the losses.

But for a human trade executing mechanically (manual trades) the cut losses fast is a critical skill-set. You need to know what trade structure is in play, you need to execute to the outside ranges of that structure and you need to size appropriately. If the structure, the plan goes against you, you then need to close your position fast.

  • Stops should be set in accordance to the time-frame structure in play.
  • Understanding that the machines will hunt stops is critical. This then highlights the necessity to place stops outside that range and consider trading a range of trade with increased sizing as the trade proves itself or size in at inflections of time cycles and increased volume and immediately close if it goes against you.
  • If trading range it is better to consider giving the range room to work itself out. Add to the position as it proves out at the outside of the range and then trickle out / trim your position as it moves through the range.
  • If trading a channel on a day trading time-frame then you should be more static about your entries and exits. More rigid. The channel on lower time frames will typically work or not work. A trading range has much more “give” to the range. The edges of the range are more blurred as the time-frame gets larger and larger.

Real World Trading Examples:

Below are excerpts from Part 1 of this article (in italics) to highlight the points discussed above.

I then also include charting and explanation about how we knew where price would likely bottom on the day and reverse (to provide one example).

Future posts will focus us down on real world examples from the live trading room and we’ll refine each trade set up and trading discipline skill one at a time, over and over again until you are winning at least 80% of your trades and over time you can then increase your trading size and returns.

I will include chart / screen shot (captures) but won’t provide charting links for proprietary algorithmic models in this post, members receive these regularly on email.

Low of Day Price & Reversal Trade Signal / Set Up .

Knowing with high probability where the low or high of day price will likely be is a great skill to have as an oil day trader. It will provide confidence in trade, allow for sizing considerations and so much more. Below is an example from our private oil trading chat discord server, trading room and oil alert feed.

Our traders learn how to set up their strategy, watch for the signals on the charting etc from the newsletter reports, charting updates continually sent out, guidance in the discord chat room, voice broadcast in oil trading room and alerts on the Twitter private feed.

At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

oil, trade, alert Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]

How Did We Know Where Oil Trade Was Likely to Bottom on The Day?

We have structured models on all time frames. In this instance the EPIC Algorithmic Model on the 30 Minute provided the primary structure. Oil trade was trading down after the EIA numbers were released and we simply looked to the bottom of the current trading quad structure. We then cross reference the structure of support with trading models for larger time-frames and lower time-frames and as price nears the target area we look at time frames on smaller and smaller models.

When price action confirms on the 1 minute model, increasing volume is apparent, the order flow is confirmed (machine liquidity is entering from the markets in to the trade) then we start our trade and/or our machine software begins to trade.

Below is the EPIC Oil Algorithm 30 Minute Model. Many areas of structured support were hit and then price ran up approximately 150 ticks for a complete move from the bottom of the quadrant to the top of the trading quad. Perfect set-up.

The orange arrow is where price hit the machine execution line (where the larger liquidity players normally have machines coded to begin large entries), then trade confirmed above the swing trading wider range indicator on the model (the thick gray horizontal line) and then further confirmed at a considerable historical support (purple horizontal line).

low of day, price, reversal, crude, oil

Determining low of day crude oil price for reversal. Algorithm area of support, swing support, historical support.

Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.

Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.

oil trading room, alert, bottom price, trend reversal area Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]

You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.

Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.

improved structure, likely near term low in

oil, trade, alert, price, reversal

Oil trade alert, trading room alert low of day price crude oil reversal trend in play.

Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).

I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.

2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line

Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.

Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.

oil trading room, trade alert, reversal, price target

Screen shot oil trading room trade alert high of day price target timing for reversal for oil trading strategy.

Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.

oil trade alert, trend, price target, time cycle

Image shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted

Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).

Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean

And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.

maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22

trading room, oil trade alert, price targets, reversal, trend

Image from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets.

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.

After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.

this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down

oil trading room, signals, HFT, confirmation of trend, alert

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action.

Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.

Last weeks quad action

This week quad action

oil charts, models, signal, confirmations

Two chart images for crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in model. Confirming signals.

The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.

peaking in to time cycle intra

trend reversal, alert, oil, trading room, charts

The final two trading room images below show that price time cycle reversal oil trade short alerted earlier.

Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Time of Day, Time Cycles, Channels, Trims, Adds, Stop Orders.

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The Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Is Complete.

The information below (in advance of the official white paper) provides a summary of the development process to date, the rule-set (strategies) the code executes oil trades to, what the oil trade alerts will look like on your feed, returns expected on accounts traded and what we have planned in future.

June 13, 2019

As noted above, we have now completed the main structure of the coding for our crude oil trading.

We have previously messaged that we were either close or right at being complete only to find ourselves back down another rabbit hole. This time is actually different, we are done the primary architecture coding, we only have updates (tweaks) remaining. We expect the bulk of that to last at most ninety days.

The software includes eighteen structured algorithmic models (representing time frames from 1 minute charting to weekly), specific high probable trade set-ups, trade sequences within set-ups, order flow analysis, trend (channel) structures on each time-frame and range structures on each time-frame.

The trends (channels) and range trade structures are given the most weight within the decision process of the rule-set. The larger the structure (time-frame) the more weight for sizing and stop loss range. The models, set-ups. sequences and order flow have much less weight in the code.

This (the weights) described above will manifest in trade activity in such a way that trade will become more active and in greater size with the larger the structure. For example, the trending channel from late December 2018 to recent would be a considerable structure within the code and as such the code would size in to that channel at the support and resistance widths of range.

The white paper that we will publish soon will detail the rule-set in such a way that our clients will be able to follow along with the machine trade and understand the protocol that it is executing. This is the first stage for the architecture needed for our trader digital dash board we intend to develop soon.

As the days and weeks go on the software will fire more regularly and will begin to size considerably more than right now because it is coded to weigh decisions within trade trends, structures etc. As the trade set-ups develop the code will fire on them. Obviously the largest structures will be at the end of this start up process. The last few days it has been firing on 1 min, 5, 15 and 30 minute structures.

At first we expect the returns to be approximately .5% per day (if averaged over 30 trading days) increasing to well over 1% per day at most 90 trading days in to the launch. We have tested the code in advance and are confident with this. Depending on our success with “tweaks” the returns could escalate to near 3% per day, we are however more conservative and expect 1%-1.5%.

We are significantly more confident with this version of code simply because we have been down the rabbit hole on every time frame, in every structure, every set up, every order flow sequence on all time cycles competing with the best machines in the world.

We have been there, we went to battle in every arena, we know where we can win and where we cannot. The final version of code will only fire in arenas that we expect 80% + win rate. The larger the structure the larger the return as the software fires through the sequence with the structure.

We tested code on every time frame, in every algorithmic model, every order flow structure and so on and so on. We left no stone unturned.

There are areas of trade in the oil markets (smallest time frames) that are so competitive it would dazzle your mind. The AI’s that are firing in the smallest of time frames are doing so in a way that no trader can imagine. Every time we completed a sequence of trade in the most competitive areas (time-frames) we were schooled in the most advanced AI machine trade the world has to offer. It is manifested in a way no trader would ever expect. Here’s a hint, imagine getting beat every time, in a new way every time and every new way you got beat was a structured, logical, mathematically sound way and the ways seem endless.

Our final crude oil trade code is well outside those areas of competition.

The alerts on the Twitter client feed, in the oil trading room and on the private Discord server will continue to have “M” in the alert if it is a machine driven trade and if I (Curt) am trading I will also identify the alert detail as such. As the days go on the protocol (trade set up) detail will get more and more detailed so that our clients can follow along with clarity.

See also:

Press: SOVORON™ Selects Compound Trading Group Machine Learning Data | Media Release

What’s next?

The next ninety days is for tweaking the code – refining the execution of sequences within structures of trade.

Then near term we will be looking at the trader’s digital platform and API’s etc and then….

AND THEN…. YES, WE HAVE DECIDED to BUILD SOFTWARE FOR BITCOIN MACHINE TRADE. 

This will obviously lead our developers in to other crypto-currencies also.

Any questions send me an email compoundtradigofficial@gmail.com.

Thanks

Curt

Oil Trading Academy:

If you would like to learn more about how to trade oil, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: AI, machine trading, trade, software, crude, oil, BTC, Bitcoin, Oil Trading Room, Oil Trade Alerts, Strategy

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A Reliable Method to Determine in Advance Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High Price, Trading Trend and Timing for Your Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 1).

The systematic process below that includes actual time stamped oil trade alerts, live video from our oil trading room and charts from our oil trade chat room is easily identifiable when the right signals of trade are in play on any day that you are trading crude oil.

The method below can be learned and reproduced by any trader that studies the trading set-up and strategy explained.

When a trader knows with high probability the likely range of trade for the day then a trading strategy for daytrading can be put in to place.

If you know the likely high of day, low of day, reversal area, trend of trade for the day and the likely timing of the price target areas / reversals this goes a long way to help you with your day trade strategy for executing trades. You can then execute your trades in accordance to those signals until they are no longer relevant or in play.

Hopefully in sharing what happened today in our oil trading room this will help you with your oil daytrading strategy in future.

Part One of this Article will show you how trade transpired today, what we alerted, the charting as it happened, the models we used to determine the high price of day, low price of day, time cycle peak for price targets, the trend on day and more.

Part Two of this Article will explain how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own daytrading strategy for crude oil trade.

June 16 Update – Part Two of this Article is Now Complete and can be viewed by clicking here.

How to Day Trade Crude Oil Low/High Price, Trend, Reversal, Size, Timing (Pt 2 Premium) | Trading Strategy.

Today was the weekly EIA Report at 10:30 AM. There was a substantial build reported. Below is a copy of a tweet from ZeroHedge.

Crude oil +6.77MM, Exp. -0.5MM
Gasoline +3.21MM
Distillate +4.57MM
Cushing +1.79MM

Prior to the EIA report coming out I was concerned about it and let the trading room know right before it was announced (the live video is in this article). Even though I expected the oil price to collapse I didn’t trade it down because we were in the last part of our final coding of our machine trade – so I was doing double duty (I wanted to get done).

So the report comes out and oil starts to collapse (you can see all this on the video from the oil trading room for those learning about how oil trades and what to watch for).

At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

oil, trade, alert

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.

Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.

oil trading room, alert, bottom price, trend reversal area

Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.

You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.

Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.

improved structure, likely near term low in

oil, trade, alert, price, reversal

Oil trade alert, trading room alert low of day price crude oil reversal trend in play.

Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).

I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.

2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line

Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.

Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.

oil trading room, trade alert, reversal, price target

Screen shot oil trading room trade alert high of day price target timing for reversal for oil trading strategy.

Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.

oil trade alert, trend, price target, time cycle

Image shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted

Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).

Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean

And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.

maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22

trading room, oil trade alert, price targets, reversal, trend

Image from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets.

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.

After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.

this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down

oil trading room, signals, HFT, confirmation of trend, alert

Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action.

Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.

Last weeks quad action

This week quad action

oil charts, models, signal, confirmations

Two chart images for crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in model. Confirming signals.

The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.

peaking in to time cycle intra

trend reversal, alert, oil, trading room, charts

The final two trading room images below show that price time cycle reversal oil trade short alerted earlier.

Next, in Part Two of this article (sent to premium members) I will explain exactly how you can use this information (the charts, alerts, trading room, chat etc) to develop your own day trading strategy for crude oil trade.

I will explain trade signals such as how to know where the time cycles are, what the expected high of day and low of day is most probable and what the trend on the day should be.

Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.

 

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

At check-out use coupon code “epic30” for 30% off. Either Oil Trade Alerts Only or Oil Trade Bundle (Live Room, Reports, Alerts).

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Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

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One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Price Targets, Time Cycle

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Below You Will Find Proprietary Oil Trading Signals Not Available Elsewhere. 

When Crude Oil Starts Selling Off Intra-Day Volatility Increases Fast. Knowing Where and Having the Signals for Support and Resistance On The One Minute Chart Will Help Your Trading Strategy.

If you day-trade crude oil futures contracts (or if you are learning how to day trade crude oil) the chart models and signals below will help you understand the structure of trade on intra-day charting (like using a GPS or a map).

The trade signals provided below will increase your trading win rate and ROI on each trade (as you learn to trade the set-ups or strategies).

We can also help you with confirming that the trend is actually bearish (selling in downtrend) and when price is likely to reverse intra-day and oil trade is likely to turn bullish. 

This is part one of a two part post (part one is public and part two is premium member only).

How Oil Sells Off Intra-day on Stairs to Support Floors Down.

The structure of oil sell-offs is not the same as when oil trades up. When crude oil trade is bearish intra-day you will find that it has specific areas of support / floors (this is also true when price is bullish but the structure or steps of trade are different).

When oil is trading down the price will often quickly drop to the next support and will then hang around for sometime and possibly test resistance areas for a possible reversal. When the reversal doesn’t happen or work then price drops quickly to the next floor of support.

The price of oil drops quickly to support and then the bulls will try and trade price back up (along with a certain amount of the shorts covering short positions) for a snap back or price reversal trade. At each support you will find this process occurring.

The more support there is on the charting (on various chart time-frames) the more likely a snap-back trade will occur (price reverses intra-day). This is why we have algorithmic models and conventional charting for all time frames that we use in the oil trading room, in member reporting and coded in to our machine trading software.

The goal is to know where each support and resistance point is on the charting so that you can develop a trading strategy for intra day moves in oil price.  

When you know where the support and resistance is you can then day trade the price of oil with more perspective or clarity.

Before you can learn how to trade a financial instrument (such as crude oil futures contracts) it is important to know the structure of the instrument (as it applies to the charting on various time-frames).

Once you know the structure (the playing field or like I refer to it as a GPS or map) then you need to learn how to trade that specific structure (this is where your personal trading style and strategies come in to play).

Knowing where support and resistance is on the charting allows you to set stops properly, it also helps you with sizing the number of contracts you are trading (trimming and adding to your trade size) and more.

There are two reasons we know the chart structure in the trade of oil (every financial instrument has a structure – like your DNA or the rings on a tree).

One reason is that we construct algorithmic charting models and the other is that we are coding for machine trade of oil. Both reasons require us to back test our charting. It isn’t enough to chart conventional trend-lines (or whatever it is you are charting) and it isn’t enough to design an algorithmic chart model – the assumptions for consideration in trade, such as support and resistances areas, need to be back tested so that you have a quantifiable high probability of success.

You need to know that your assumptions provide highly probable set-ups (trade signals) to provide you a trading edge.

When we chart for the purpose of trading signals we first start with conventional charting (on all time frames) and then move to charting algorithmic models of highly probable areas of support and resistance of trade (visual representation of important structure points of the charting) and then we move to coding what we know to be most probable areas of support and resistance in trade. I should note for completeness that our models provide much more than support and resistance, there are other important trade signals such as time cycles, the structure of trade itself on various time-frames and much more.

We use the charting for crude oil on thirteen different time-frames (1 minute charting through to monthly charting), we chart it on conventional charts, work with algorithmic modelling and back test all the various indicators for up to 60 months (such as moving averages, VWAP, MACD, stochastic RSI and more).

When we back test our assumptions we are calculating the probability of that structure in trade re-occurring. When we find a structure with high probability of repeating then we model that structure and code it to our machine trade software.

In this specific area of day-trading (intra-day sell-offs and reversals) we can help you with what structure is in play on the one minute chart as oil sells off and what to watch for so that you know the sell-off is likely done and the price trend is about to change and turn bullish for price reversal.

Support And Resistance On The One Minute Oil Chart in Sell-Offs.

Specific to crude oil, sell-off support and resistance on the charting is VERY PREDICTABLE. You will find that the areas of support are very precise and price will step down in a very structured way on the chart – this is a near exact science.

Why is the trade of oil so precise on the one minute chart when oil sells off? The answer is very likely because the trade of oil is now mostly done by software programmed / coded for machine trade and this machine trade liquidity has caused very specific structures of trade to manifest.

Lets Look at Some Recent Crude Oil Trade From our Oil Trading Room.

Below is a screen shot from our oil trade chat room on Discord (which is not the same as the live broadcast oil trading room) of a comment and a chart of intra day trade in crude oil (this was posted at 1:03 PM last Thursday).

My comment in the trading room reads “perfect structured sell down out of support in to next buy trigger”. What this means is that crude oil sold off intra day, it lost its area of support (the yellow diagonal trend line on the one minute chart model) and then dropped perfectly to the next support decision line on the chart (yellow line again) and then price bounced to test resistance.

By the way, the crude oil trade alerts are both what you see below (the Discord private server screen images below) and alerted on a private member Twitter feed.

This structure (you see below) occurred over and over again daily this week during sell-offs. This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.

Click here for an article that explains what short selling is.

This is by far one of the most predictable signals available for day-trading crude oil you will find. It has one of the highest probabilities of success in oil trade model charting.

The key to success however is learning what the structure is (having the model at your disposal for when you trade) so that you can size your trades properly and set stop orders properly etc – learning how to use the signals for your strategy and knowing when trade is likely to stop selling off so that you can then begin planning for a trend reversal.

This is a very predictable structure for knowing where to short oil intra-day, where to trim (cover) size of your short position and where to possibly find support for a reversal trade in your intra-day trading strategy.

crude, oil, trading, room, chart

Crude oil trading chat room screen capture of day trade in oil selling off using support. #oil #tradingroom #daytrading

And then in the screen shot below from the oil trading room you will see on the next chart posted to the room that oil started to bounce (or trade up) from the support (or buy trigger signal) on the chart. I then asked our software developer Jeremy to note that the software did not trigger a long trade for our coding updates to be done later that night.

Look close at his answer / comment to my request, he knew why the software did not signal a trigger for a long trade (and also why there was no trade alert as such on our member feed to buy)… it was because the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.

the order flow program (our proprietary IDENT software) knew that the machine liquidity in the markets was not buying that support and that they were going to sell it off again.

oil, trading, day trading, traders, room

Screen shot of oil trading room, price of oil trying to reverse, day trading signals for our strategy and discussion between traders.

And sure enough, if you look at the next image below you see that they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure (next yellow line down representing next support in a sell off). Again, it was precise trade action.

they sold oil off again shorting it down to the next step in the sequence to the next support on the chart structure

crude, oil, short selling, daytrade, signal

Oil short sell signal for daytrading strategy on the algorithmic chart model for day traders.

Then you will notice that I alerted the oil trading room (at 1:12 PM Thursday) that the bulls are starting to buy at each support area of the one minute chart (in other words, be aware that a price reversal in intra-day trade could occur soon).

There were buy programs and/or day-traders starting to buy at supports that are not support areas for a continued sell-off, they are areas of support for either indecision (or a decision is needed) or support for trading bullish (or in an uptrend).

This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal). These lines are at the white diagonal (signals a decision area of charting) and the blue diagonal (signals bullish support) on the chart model.

Oil was trading at 57.44 on FX USOIL WTI at the time.

This is key – the fact that buys were coming in at bullish support areas or decision areas on the model (this is an early sign or signal of an imminent reversal).

trade signal, alert, reversal, oil trade room

Screen capture of oil trading room alert signalling for daytraders to watch for trend reversal in day trade action.

And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal. I was explaining to our day traders in the room at the time (this screen shot is taken on the weekend so you don’t see who was in the oil trade room at the time in the image) what to watch for in intra-day trade action for a confirmation of trend reversal. In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.

In this example I highlighted an area of the chart model where machines are programmed for a price target.

trend reversal, bounce, trade, crude oil

And then next trade in crude oil reversed with a bounce and was threatening a confirmation signal for trend reversal.

And then in this image (screen shot from oil trading room) you see that trade hit the price target and got through resistance confirming more that the low of day in trade had been put in and that we were now alerting bias to uptrend trading signals going forward for oil trade on the day.

Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model – this is machine trade. Knowing what the large liquidity in machine trade is doing is key now when day trading crude oil. This is very important.

Note the low of day was in fact 57.33 and I has alerted at 57.44 that the bulls were starting to step in (during the extreme sell-off) at key bullish areas of the algorithm chart model.

oil, trading, room, reversal, trade, signal, alert

Image (screen shot oil trading room) oil trade hit price target through resistance confirms uptrend trading signals

Looking at the chart below you can see very clearly how precise the day trading signals are on the daytrading algorithmic crude oil model.

  • The green arrows show three shorting opportunities from yellow diagonal support / resistance to the next yellow diagonal support / resistance (like stairs stepping trade down in the model).
  • You will notice that the last stair down that trade over shot the yellow line a bit, this is a signal that an intra-day bottom is being put in.
  • You can also notice (from the charts shown above) that as buying came in at the decision support / resistance lines (white diagonal lines on chart model) and at the blue decision diagonal support / resistance lines that I alerted a possible trend reversal in trade.
  • Then you will notice (see chart below) that trade got through the yellow resistance after bouncing (yellow arrow on chart) – this is a bullish intra-day signal that a reversal is likely near.
  • And then next in trade you will see that trade bounced at the blue diagonal trend-line (blue arrow) when it pulled back from resistance, a bounce at a blue line is further confirmation that trade is now bullish intra-day. The blue lines are used as support and resistance in an intra-day uptrend.
  • And then the subsequent blue arrows on the chart show how trade breached in to the next bullish area, then pulled back and used the blue line as support (after confirming up after hitting a decision white line) for a bounce and then so on through the bullish trade reversal in the daytrading sequence.
  • Blue is for trading in uptrend, yellow is trading a sell off, white is a reference point for a decision to go up or down in trend on the model.
  • The trend-lines on this algorithm model are not conventional. The trend-lines are algorithmic calculations and therefore proprietary and not available elsewhere.

How powerful is that for an oil daytrader?

Knowing exactly where the support and resistance is during a sell-off and knowing with high probability where the turn is likely to happen for reversal in trade and then knowing exactly where to trade the uptrend.

daytrading, crude, oil, signals, algorithm

Algorithmic chart model for shorting oil, trading a reversal in oil and decision areas of daytrading signals.

Below is the video explanation that accompanies this post (live oil trading room footage included).

In part two (the premium member post) we will take a deeper look at strategies for trading the one minute model (such as trade sizing and seeing the reversals in advance) and I will provide chart links to the proprietary algorithmic models via email to our members.

Protected: Part 2. Deep Dive Day Trading Signals Crude Oil Sell-Off, Reversals, Trend Trade | 1 Min Strategies (Premium).

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Updates Distributed Weekly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Oil Trade Alerts via Private Twitter Feed and Discord Private Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room / Algorithm Newsletter / Alert Bundle (Weekly Newsletter, Trading Broadcast Room, Chat Room, Real-Time Trade Alerts).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trade Alerts, Trading, Oil Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Shorting, Support, Resistance, Reversals, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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