Crude Oil Trade Report Sept 29, 2019.

Trade Strategies for Crude Oil (CL) Day Trading, Trend and Swing Trading. Intra-Day, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Time-Frames.

The CL trade strategies that include alerts, charts, algorithm models, signals, price targets and guidance included below are suitable for actionable mechanically executed trading and are also the models our coding team reference for our crude oil machine learning trade development.

You will find below a well developed, time-tested proven rules based system for crude oil trading that is one of the best available. You have to use all the models together as a structured system of trade for it to work to your best advantage.

With each chart model we may include “best-use” trade strategy notes and/or “rules-based trade indications” for your consideration. The oil trading room is your best resource for real-time learning.

For perspective, review historical reporting on our blog and the various videos we have published to the Compound Trading YouTube channel.

Much of the structured model discipline developed in our system is similar in concept as discussed in this video; Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street.

Our “How to Trade Crude Oil” Recommendations.

Crude oil price moves within structured areas (ranges) of trade represented on charting on various time frames (different time cycles of trade).

The structure oil price moves within (the range of price) can be one minute charting (and more recently some machine trade is as low as 15 second time-frame) timing through to monthly charting.

Time-frame set-ups / strategies below are charted as conventional chart set-ups and/ or algorithmic chart set-ups (structures).

Understanding and having each chart time-frame at your immediate access (both conventional and algorithmic) will increase the probability of profitable trading.

You will find in reviewing the raw recorded video feed or in attending the live oil trading room that in the morning a lead trader will often review on mic the various levels of support and resistance on various oil trade time-frames on the charting to establish my most probable areas of trade for my strategy of trade. The lead trader will also check with all the chart time-frames prior to entering a daytrade at various times through the day.

Our use of this proven crude oil trading system (and obviously the use of our V3 machine learning software executing to this system) has provided an oil trade win-rate above 90% and currently we are returning over 148% ROI per year (win rate and ROI vary depending on time frame and version of software).

When multiple time-frames agree to support or resistance areas on the charting this becomes your highest probability area of trade execution, we have found this to be one of the best oil trading strategies.

Sizing trades appropriate to your trading account, probability of support or resistance (multiple oil chart time-frames in agreement) and time frame for each set-up is a positive strategy.

Using the correct chart time-frame specific to your trading strategy is critical. Generally, the lower (smaller) the time frame the less predictable the support and resistance areas (or structure) of the chart will be. However, the larger time-frames (monthly, weekly, daily) may also have significant “slippage” but the primary structure will often remain intact.

Generally, the idea is to enter your positions based on the structure for the specific time frame you are wanting to trade referencing the other time frame support and resistance or range within the trend. The basic method is to understand the range of trade and execute trade long bias when price is near support for the appropriate time frame / structure and the opposite is true for short trades.

Our staff use the thirty minute model structures (range within trends) most often for primary areas of support and resistance trading signals referencing all other time-frames in their trading strategy. More recently the 60 minute time-frame (view simple algorithmic model below) is being used by our staff as it provides a wider view of the current structure of oil trade.

Trade positions should be significantly biased to the trending range of trade. For more information about trend identification for trading various time-frames refer to this article on Investopedia; Multiple Time Frames Can Multiply Returns.

Below is a recent video from a webinar we recorded in our Oil Trading Room, “How to Use Our Oil Trading Services. Oil Trade Alerts, Oil Trading Room, Oil Reports, Trade Coaching” and for more specific trading strategies there are more specific video links below.

The recently released white paper about EPIC v3 performance explains also its method of execution of trades, see the report here;

White Paper: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading Methods

If you have questions about the models below please email us at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Not all charts are updated every week and some concept or test charts are added or deleted on occasion.

Be sure to check the time-stamp of each chart below as the preparation of charts and/or models can take days prior to publication and distribution of this report.

If you are a new client that would like to review historical reports that are still locked on the blog from public view please email the office with your request and we will send you recent report credentials for unlocking reports for review.

Please note, chart links that support the models below are now distributed specific to each user or small group of users. If you are using more than one device to access the charting, to avoid disruption of service, please email us a simple / general description of those devices to assist in controlling dissemination.

EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Model. 30 Minute Oil Chart Structure.

The EPIC algorithm model chart below is a proprietary structure that has been back tested sixty months on thirteen time-frames. The model represents the most probable areas of support and resistance in oil trade within this specific time-frame.

This (the EPIC 30 Minute Oil Algorithm Chart Model) is our most proven oil trading structure / strategy.

The levels noted on the EPIC model are to be used as important areas of consideration for support and resistance (trade signals) for your trading strategy when using conventional charting set-ups / structures and/or other algorithmic charting.

Resistance and support areas on the thirty minute oil trade structure chart are at each line on the algorithmic chart. The primary areas of support and resistance are;

  • Outer quadrant walls / also used as channel support and resistance (orange dotted diagonal lines), the half way point between each is often an executable buy or sell trigger in trade (not shown on model below),
  • Mid channel line for uptrend and down trend (white dotted diagonal),
  • Mid quad horizontal (not marked but is at the mid point of the quad),
  • Fibonacci levels (various horizontal colored lines),
  • Historical areas of support and resistance (purple horizontal).
  • The intra-week swing trading range is from thick horizontal gray line to the next (commonly becomes a pivot area of trade).
  • The important historical diagonal trend-lines (conventional trend lines) are represented on the chart as thick white lines.
  • Also of note are the price targets for Tuesday 4:30 PM (API), Wednesday 10:30 AM (EIA) and Friday 1:00 PM (Rig Count). The Tuesday and Wednesday targets hit significantly more often than the Friday target (red circles with red or green vertical dotted lines intersecting).
  • At times other indicators are added to the chart such as important trend lines “in play”, moving averages and more.

The video at this link explains How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, #OIL, #Trading, #Algorithm, #OOTT as does this video Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart June 21 #OIL #OOTT and this Webinar 1: EPIC the Oil Algorithm.

When conventional crude oil charting coincides (or agrees) with the EPIC algorithmic model support and resistance this is then considered a significant buy or sell trigger (signal) for crude oil trade.

Be aware (at minimum) of the primary support and resistance areas on the larger time-frames (lower time frames are not as critical) – in this instance (when trading the 30 min time frame) the 1 hour, 4 daily, weekly and monthly charting should be considered when sizing your trades.

30 Minute EPIC Algorithm Crude Oil Trade Charting Model.

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm 911 PM Sept 29 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/dTgzoWOB-EPIC-30-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Algorithm-911-PM-Sept-29-FX-USOIL/

EPIC, crude oil, algorithm, trading

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm 911 PM Sept 29 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

Per recent;

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm 810 PM Sept 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/pQJvHS27-EPIC-30-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Algorithm-810-PM-Sept-1-FX-USOIL-W/

EPIC, 30 Min, Algorithm, Crude Oil

EPIC 30 Min Crude Oil Trading Algorithm 810 PM Sept 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm

15 Second Oil Day Trade Chart Model – Concept Model in Testing.

The 15 second chart model below has Fibonacci structures, horizontal and diagonal as well as the cloud and a chart bot for buy and sell signals.

This model allows for the discipline of symmetrical price extension moves to be measured easily as the chart has grid type features.

All levels are in test phase so use the model with care.

You can shut off the cloud and/or chart bot if either distract you.

This model is likely to change many times before we are done.

15 Second Crude Oil Trading Chart Model (day trading) Sept 29 1047 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Q8Qp9WNW-15-Second-Crude-Oil-Trading-Chart-Model-day-trading-Sept-29-10/

15 second, oil trading, chart

15 Second Crude Oil Trading Chart Model (day trading) Sept 29 1047 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

One Minute Oil Day-Trading Time-Frame Chart Model. Ideal for Intra-day Crude Oil Trade.

How to trade oil on one minute charting time-frame “best use” rules-based trading:

The one minute oil chart time-frame is one of the best for day-trading crude oil.

The one minute oil trading chart time-frame model provides for pinpoint trade entry, sizing and exit points for day-trading oil.

It is also used for squeeze scenarios in oil day trading. The main range is between the red / blue areas with thicker dotted white lines. The range is considerably more predictable in a squeeze scenario.

In a non squeeze scenario the one minute chart is best used as a grid tool for measuring day trade extensions in price. Refer to lead trader, trading room videos, reports, Discord server previous trading days, trade coaching for how to trade intra-day with one minute oil trading model using price extensions on the grid to your advantage. This is a considerable edge if you learn how to utilize this method.

Diagonal channel / trend lines may or may not be included with this chart, if so, they are recent trend lines of importance for day-trading levels also.

Again, be sure to reference other oil chart time-frames to ensure your highest probability of trade success (when two or more time-frames agree your success in trade – probability of winning, will go up significantly).

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trading grid) Sept 29 927 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/4f9CPcq4-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-day-trading-grid-Sept-29-927-P/

1 minute, daytrade, crude oil, chart

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trading grid) Sept 29 927 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

One Minute Crude Oil Trading Model (day trading) Sept 2 842 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/PEyADnU1-One-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Model-day-trading-Sept-2-842-AM-FX-U/

Daytrading, crude oil, 1 minute, time frame

One Min Crude Oil Trading Model (day trading) Sept 2 842 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

5 Minute Charting.

Also used for day-trading crude oil, the five minute chart time-frame is a key area of trade (signal) for oil day traders.

The five minute oil trading strategy chart below includes a form of an Elliot impulse 5 wave component for when oil is predictably trading intra-day on this time frame. The diagonal sloping up-trending green lines can be used as support and resistance decision areas.

Intra-day time cycle peaks can also easily be identified and important with trade execution timing and size considerations. The vertical lines are time cycle peaks / inflections. Depending on intra day trend you will find half-time to be also of importance and even quarter time.

Here also, on the 5 minute model symmetrical price extensions within the structure of the model are key to levels of support and resistance in each wave of price within intra-day trading structure.

5 Min Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 1028 PM Sept 29 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/N3jErr1D-5-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Time-Frame-Chart-Model-1028-PM-Sept-29-F/

5 min, trading, model, crude oil

5 Min Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 1028 PM Sept 29 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

5 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 849 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/OqDS8KLp-5-Min-Crude-Oil-Trading-Time-Frame-Chart-Model-849-AM-Sept-2-FX/

5 minute, chart, trading, time frame

5 Min Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 849 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

15 Minute Charting.

The 15 minute trading time-frame helps oil traders see a larger picture than the 1 and 5 minute time-frames.

The algorithmic chart model below is an abstract model that has a number of indicators within its structure. It helps oil traders determine areas of inflection, time cycles, channels and various other trends within oil trade.

When you get to the 30 minute, 60 minute, daily, weekly and monthly chart models further down in this report you will find we return to more conventional chart structures for wider time-frame strategy perspective.

15 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 1245 M Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/ErAy7KpM-15-Minute-Crude-Oil-Trading-Time-Frame-Chart-Model-1245-M-Sept-3/

15 min, oil trade model

15 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 1245 M Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

15 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 855 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/3gH4WBQf-15-Minute-Crude-Oil-Trading-Time-Frame-Chart-Model-855-AM-Sept-2/

crude oil, trading, 15 minute, chart, time frame

15 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 855 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

30 Minute Charting.

The thirty minute crude oil trading time-frame charting is critical for oil traders. The 30 min chart below is in addition to (complimentary to) the EPIC 30 Minute model above.

It is a noisy chart with many trend-lines (red, black are primary), price extensions (green arrows), time cycle inflections (blue dotted vertical), Fibonacci levels and more. It is more a “work-sheet” than it is a specific structured model. Because of this it becomes important for daytraders to reference regularly. We send updates to our subscribers on a regular basis, this allows for our clients to identify with short term trend channels and trends.

The key areas of support and resistance on the chart below are noted with thicker lines. The thicker the line in the chart the more important it is for your trading strategy and consideration for trade.

30 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 804 PM Sept 29 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/sljVYyhc-30-Minute-Crude-Oil-Trading-Time-Frame-Chart-Model-804-PM-Sept-2/

oil, trading, chart, 30 min

30 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 804 PM Sept 29 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

Per recent;

30 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 908 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/47E2wEXY-30-Minute-Crude-Oil-Trading-Time-Frame-Chart-Model-908-AM-Sept-2/

30 minute, crude oil, trading, chart, time frame

30 Minute Crude Oil Trading Time-Frame Chart Model 908 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Strategies

60 Minute Charting.

The 60 minute oil chart model below is a much cleaner and more simple model that references key support and resistance decisions for crude oil trade on the sixty minute time-frame.

The way to use this trading signal is for key areas of support and resistance on a weekly trend / reversal thinking strategy. Because the model is so clean and charts a larger structured time-frame, the levels indicated on the chart model should be considered heavily within trading strategies for the trader.

No oil day trader or swing trader should go with-out considering this chart before executing short term or mid term timing of trades.

The model includes time cycle peaks (vertical lines), quadrant support and resistance (diagonal Fibonacci trend-lines) and horizontal Fibonacci support and resistance.

60 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model 131 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/G0tNgqRY-60-Minute-Crude-Oil-Chart-Model-131-AM-Sept-30-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO/

60 minute, crude oil, chart

60 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model 131 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

60 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model 924 PM Sept 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/cf2ll4EC-60-Minute-Crude-Oil-Chart-Model-924-PM-Sept-1-FX-USOIL-WTI-USO/

60 minute, crude oil, chart, time-frame

60 Minute Crude Oil Chart Model 924 PM Sept 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Daily Charting.

The daily oil chart time-frame provides a larger structure to consider. The diagonal Fibonacci lines are important as are the mid quad horizontal lines. The moving averages (especially the 200 MA) should be considered in your trade strategy. The MACD is a common indicator on the daily oil chart for forward positioning and trend bias.

The most recent daily model is a busy chart with many trend-lines and such (first chart below) and then the simpler “Keep It Simple” Daily Chart is also included below. The more simple Keep It Simple Daily chart model is excellent for trade strategy perspective.

Daily Crude Oil Chart Model Swing Trade Range 139 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/5FJHnxO1-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Model-Swing-Trade-Range-139-AM-Sept-30-FX/

Daily, chart, oil, swing trade

Daily Crude Oil Chart Model Swing Trade Range 139 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Daily Crude Oil Chart Model with Fibonacci Channels 143 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/87kccz5a-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Model-with-Fibonacci-Channels-143-AM-Sept/

daily, crude oil, chart

Daily Crude Oil Chart Model with Fibonacci Channels 143 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Per recent;

Daily Crude Oil Chart Model with Fibonacci Channels 656 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/10yOa7go-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-Model-with-Fibonacci-Channels-656-AM-Sept/

Daily, Algorithmic, Chart, Oil

Daily Crude Oil Chart Model with Fibonacci Channels 656 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Keep it Simple Daily Crude Oil Chart 156 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/WExeC2MP-Keep-it-Simple-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-156-AM-Sept-30-FX-USOIL-WTI/

KISS, Daily, oil, chart

Keep it Simple Daily Crude Oil Chart 156 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Per recent;

Keep it Simple Daily Crude Oil Chart 858 PM Sept 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/0A97QzNx-Keep-it-Simple-Daily-Crude-Oil-Chart-858-PM-Sept-1-FX-USOIL-WTI/

Daily, Keep it Simple, Chart, Strategy, oil, trade

Keep it Simple Daily Crude Oil Chart 858 PM Sept 1 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Weekly Charting.

The weekly charting below should be used for perspective and/or or swing trading crude oil.

Keep it Simple Weekly Crude Oil Chart 201 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Tyjn21kB-Keep-it-Simple-Weekly-Crude-Oil-Chart-201-AM-Sept-30-FX-USOIL-WT/

Weekly, KISS, crude oil, chart

Keep it Simple Weekly Crude Oil Chart 201 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Per recent;

Keep it Simple Weekly Crude Oil Chart 707 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/5th2C9B0-Keep-it-Simple-Weekly-Crude-Oil-Chart-707-AM-Sept-2-FX-USOIL-WTI/

Weekly, oil, charting

Keep it Simple Weekly Crude Oil Chart 707 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Monthly Charting.

The monthly oil charting below is similar to the weekly charting in that it provides a simple perspective for primary support and resistance in crude oil trade for your strategy. You will find that oil is currently trading mid-range within its current structure, caution is warranted at mid range. The 200 day moving average is well above so if opportunity to trade long at the chart support occurs this would be a sound strategy for oil traders within this current set-up.

Keep it Simple Monthly Crude Oil Chart 206 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/KesoOqZ2-Keep-it-Simple-Monthly-Crude-Oil-Chart-206-AM-Sept-30-FX-USOIL-W/

KISS, Monthly, oil, chart

Keep it Simple Monthly Crude Oil Chart 206 AM Sept 30 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Per recent;

Keep it Simple Monthly Crude Oil Chart 709 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/KdsseHK9-Keep-it-Simple-Monthly-Crude-Oil-Chart-709-AM-Sept-2-FX-USOIL-WT/

monthly, crude oil, charting

Keep it Simple Monthly Crude Oil Chart 709 AM Sept 2 FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil

Crude Oil Trading Room, Profit and Loss, Trade Alerts, Special Reports, Trading Strategies and More.

Recently we have written a number of oil trading strategy articles to assist our subscribers with how to trade crude oil and win. You will find in the articles below at the “Crude Oil Trading Academy” link videos from the live oil trading room, profit and loss of our trading, various trade alert examples and more.

If you are serious about learning how to trade oil you will find that the report you are reading, along with the various articles below and review of the live trading room (specific to around the times of trade) that your oil trading returns and win rate will increase significantly.

If you are not progressing in such a way that your win rate is going up and your returns are steadily increasing you may want to consider some short term trade coaching. Even the best traders in the world have trade coaches for times they are struggling.

Anything else we can do to assist you in your trading journey please email us at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Click here to find all information and pricing on Oil Newsletter, Trading Chat Room, Oil Alerts and more.

Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Futures, Strategy, Signals, Alerts, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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Summary Review – Answers For Questions Received About EPIC V3 Draw-Down in Oil Trading Room Today.

Please Note: There is an edit revision below that includes a question and answer session for Sept 5, 2019 that provides significantly more detail.

As the trading day progressed and we broadcast our trades in the live oil trading room today we received a number of questions by way of email and direct message. Below is an oil trading room review summary.

We did not have time to respond to the questions during the trading day as we were working with the machine trading software (coding).

Today the software had a larger than normal draw-down shorting against a rally in crude oil trade. Below is the daily profit and loss chart.

For September 4, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily -$1,205 YTD +$12,559 Projected $77,696 or 78% Per Annum. v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Sample Account (v4 period excluded) #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #machinetrading #oiltradealerts

Profit Loss, Machine Trading, Crude Oil

For September 4, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily v3 Oil Machine Trade $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO

The sequence the software was triggering trades to was a new sequence. When a new sequence activates the first go-round is often a loss, albeit normally less than today’s.

On the second or third go-round you will find that the software will win and continue to win better each time or it simply will not re-engage that same sequence.

The draw-down amount will normally be less as I mentioned, however, draw-downs will occur.

Nevertheless, the EPIC v3 crude oil trading software is extremely stable for a number of reasons, below are some of those reasons.

  • If you look at the ROI trajectory for the software you will find that when draw-downs occur that the software will self-adjust its risk threshold to maintain the minimum trajectory.
  • The software catalogs its trading set-ups, some set-ups it near never loses, some rarely, some not so rare. The point is, the software is coded to self adjust its minimum achieved ROI trajectory (correct it) as needed. In other words, it is coded to correct its minimum achieved trajectory by way of risk-threshold. To be more clear, it will be sure it self adjusts (wins) and how it is coded to do that is to bias its trade executions to its more probable set-ups.
  • Its current ROI trajectory is between 80% – 90% approximately, you will see the software self-adjust its trade executions to more probable set-ups until that minimum trajectory is returned.
  • Each time the trajectory is returned to the minimum average it will engage higher risk to learn trade set-ups. This process will continue and repeat over and over again. Over time the trajectory should increase on average as a result.
  • The risk threshold of v3 vs v4 is much less aggressive (draw-downs and gains are considerably less volatile) and days like today will be few and far between because (as explained above) it will self-adjust back to the minimum ROI trajectory via the most probable trade set-ups of which it has some now that literally it very never loses if at all. It can rely on the catalog of those set-ups to adjust. 

I can’t stress enough that the v3 software is not anywhere near similar in aggressiveness to the v4 version. This version is coded to avoid volatility, avoid large draw downs, and self adjust its risk threshold via high probable set-ups to snapiback to its minimum ROI trajectory as needed. 

Watch the software over the next number of days and you will see it return to its minimum average trajectory and then you will see it take new sequence trade set-ups and the process will continue to repeat over and over.

If the software did not have trade set-ups (sequences) that it wins at near 100% of the time none of the above would apply.

Any questions about the detail of code architecture feel welcome to send us questions anytime so we can publish responses for our stakeholders to review as needed.

Below is an update. After the original blog post was released we had a few more questions come in that I would add answer to below. What I have done is copy and pasted the conversation below.

September 5 2019 Update: Oil Trading Room Review: Question and Answers EPIC V3 Software Protocol

[6:54 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: I still don’t understand that in some of the big moves the software fires opposite to the direction of the move but something we can talk about on Saturday
[7:22 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: easy answer
[7:22 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: if you look at the chart the price has come way off
[7:22 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: software had order flow right
[7:23 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: execution of sequence needs tweaking
[7:23 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: same as when it gets the bottoms in sell offs, it used to struggle with that
[7:23 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: as far as why it didn’t trigger with the rally….
[7:24 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: thats simple too
[7:24 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: order flow is random in a rally like that, it will near never trigger mid rally in rally’s induced by news, no predictable order flow data
[7:24 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: short covering and retail daytrader trade causes the majority of the rally, no structure
[7:25 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so the key is it triggering on the predictable wins to maintain ROI trajectory and as time goes on slowly learning other set ups
[7:25 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: i should have put this in the original blog post report
[7:26 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: i will do an addendum / update report
[7:27 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: I understand why it would not fire in the big moves because of lack of structure and order flow
[7:27 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: I just don’t understand why when there is a big move down it is firing long and when there is a big move up it fires short
[7:27 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: we tried to code a trajectory trade sequence for rally’s on news but we couldn’t get the code, too random
[7:28 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that makes sense to me
[7:28 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: because its catching the end of the move to turn the other way, next in the code is to get it to hold some size through the reversal
[7:29 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the essence of the development right there, step one is code the reversal step two code the middle of the move, the middle is much more complicated to code
[7:30 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Ahhh okay
[7:31 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the order-flow at the reversal is where the trading edge is…. seeing the order-flow pattern of the other machine liquidity on the IDENT program starting to turn for the reversal, thats why the machine trade software nails near 100% of the turns up in price on intraday trade after a sell off, but to get the sell-off you have to get the reversal like it was trying to do today and then you’re golden
[7:31 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Okay yes I understand that now
[7:31 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: its all about being able to get the reversal first, thats where the predictability is
[7:32 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: once you have the sequence for the reversal then you can start on the middle core of the trade, we have the sell off reversal perfected and now we’re working on the middle of the move
[7:32 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the reversal after a rally to the short side still needs work, they’re different (reversal at top and reversal at bottom intraday)
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: without the reversal right its impossible to get the rest, the reversal is where you have to plant your trade, start your trade for high win rate probability, nothing else provides a high probability scenario that can be duplicated time after time
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: hope that helps
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes I get that now
[7:34 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: good questions for the report update, doesn’t hurt to share
[7:35 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: You want to get the top of the rally
[7:35 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: what happens in the middle is too random so if you get the top of a rally or the bottom of a sell off for the reversal and get your size in place then you have the trend to make the next turn
[7:36 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: But what is telling the software it is at the top when it really isnt and so it keeps firing short when the rally has not ended. That’s what I wanted to understand
[7:36 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: its the bottoms and tops that have clear predictability, hence why we have the near 100% win rate on sell off reversals, but the rally tops are a different sequence that we’re working on
[7:37 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: it was firing in to the top today, it nailed the top of the rally, it was firing 56.12 to 56.50, and then it came off to 55.90, its the same as the sell off bottoms, it trades them the same way, same concept, different sequence
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: that wasn’t the problem
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: That makes sense. Because I remember you working on the bottoms of the sell off and now have that nailed
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the problem is the sequence that it uses to gain size at the top and hold for the sell off reversal after the rally is the challenge we were working on
[7:38 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the sequence at tops is different than at bottoms
[7:39 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that makes sense to me
[7:39 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: we have the bottom sequence perfected for the turn up after the sell-off, in that scenario we are now working on the sizing so that it holds some in the reversal rally
[7:39 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: but the secret is this…
[7:40 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the only way the code wins near 100% of the time, the only way that is possible is at the reversals, reversal of a rally or reversal of the sell off
[7:40 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: thats how the others that are winning have done it, we can see it in the order flow, its precise and repeatable over and over again
[7:41 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: the middle of the move isn’t that way, it is random
[7:41 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Okay I understand much better now
[7:42 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so if you have an ROI trajectory at say 85% and your code is nailing every bottom the only way to increase the ROI is to nail the tops or get your size better at bottoms for more profit in the move
[7:42 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so slowly we’ll work on nailing the tops for reversals and slowly work on holding more size when we’ve nailed the bottom reversals to increase ROI
[7:43 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: when we lose as we develop those scenarios those trades won’t trigger (the software learning will stop) and the predictable set ups only will trigger to keep the 85% ROI at minimum (or whatever the ROI trajectory is at)
[7:44 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: we have more than just the bottom reversals after a sell off in the ammo, but i think you get my point
[7:44 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: there’s daytrading set ups it triggers to all the time, small wins intraday
[7:44 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Makes sense
[7:45 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: its just that today was a mathematically very large rally to which you see a larger than average loss, thats why i know that scenario will be very few and far between, very rare
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that was an unusually large move in price
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: so its about risk management when it goes wrong and when it does the software / development team stopping the learning and software only trades what we know wins until trajectory of ROI is back in play (returned to its regular trajectory)
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Answer: 3 days of trading and the previous ROI trajectory will be back at 85% – 90% and then as it learns the trajectory will turn up because the software now has more set-ups to trigger on that it wins consistently, at current level it is maxed out at about 90% ROI so it needs to add to its catalog of set-ups to increase ROI trajectory, the learning is where you will have short term draw-downs
[7:46 PM, 9/4/2019] Question: Yes that’s good

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Best and Peace,

Curt

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Article Topics; crude oil, trading, profit loss, coding, daytrading, machine trading, $CL_F, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, CL

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