Volatility (VIX) Market Time Cycle Update for 2020/21. Part 1 – A Review of Recent Volatility History.
Volatility time cycles affect the financial markets globally. Our time cycle work focuses on Volatility as a foundation and our trading in other key instruments reflects this. Other key instruments are SP500 $SPY $SPX, Crude Oil $CL_F $USO $USOIL, Gold $GC_F $GLD, Silver $SLV, US Dollar $DXY $UUP, Bitcoin $BTC.
We also weigh our stock swing trading (position trading) heavily on our time cycle work in Volatility.
In recent months and years our time cycle work has predicted the primary volatility spikes in markets with uncanny accuracy, this has significantly bolstered our Profit & Loss in Volatility trading, commodities, stocks and crypto.
This series of chart model updates and guidance provides the most recent code break updates for Volatility and the other instruments of trade listed above. First lets look look at Volatility (VIX).
Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked in a primary time cycle trading in the low 80’s between March 7-17 2020. It was trading below 20.00s for sometime prior and then volatility spiked.
Volatility (VIX) Index last peaked trading low 80’s between March 7 – 17 2020 trading below 20.00s for sometime prior #volatility #swingtrading #timecycles
This presented our trading team and subscribers the opportunity to add to our long positioning in $VXX (short term volatility) and $OVX (oil volatility) in advance of the spike. It also allowed for us to prepare for a significant market sell-off. We closed all long positions in equities four days prior to the SP500 starting it’s COVID sell – off. We had opportunity to the short in size equities such as MasterCard (MA), Nike (NKE), WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) and many more for significant gains.
Last #timecycle we sold off longs 4 days b4 turn down, hammered short Mastercard $MA, WYNN $WYNN, NIKE $NKE etc & long $VIX $OVX at lows when hardly anyone was positioning same, then covered shorts in to turn, long $BA etc recent rally (check dates) #timecycles #swingtrading
Last #timecycle we sold off longs 4 days b4 turn down, hammered short Mastercard $MA, WYNN $WYNN, NIKE $NKE etc & long $VIX $OVX at lows when hardly anyone was positioning same, then covered shorts in to turn, long $BA etc recent rally (check dates) #timecycles #swingtrading pic.twitter.com/BpVaQW8cxQ
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) March 25, 2020
$OVX spiked from the 20.00s to 330.00s and even flashed in to the 500.00s. We were adding long positioning in $OVX in the 20.00s and selling as the price spiked in to 330.00s. We didn’t hold to the 500.00s. We also had opportunity to profit from $VXX in the volatility run-up.
There were many other trades around this time cycle that benefited our performance greatly. Look for our Profit and Loss Statements soon to be release (posted to the main page of www.compoundtrading.com).
More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week.
More recently there was a volatility mid cycle inflection that seen VIX start to rise June 8 from low 20s to mid 40s over a week #swingtrading #VIX
The inflection points between significant cycle peaks are areas of possible spikes. We recently adjusted for this possible inflection and it paid dividends, nothing like the primary March 2020 time cycle spike, but paid us and helped adjust various other swing trade holdings.
I have been reporting to our members for some time that this season of time cycles (2020 – 2025) would see significantly more volatility within volatility, a compression of time cycle duration(s) and viciousness of the cycle peaks. The most recent “inflection” is evidence of the compressed timing of cycles (volatility within volatility cycles and the time between spikes).
Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.
Even the most recent Volatility $VIX inflection was a decent trade with $VXX spiking in to 45.00s from high 28.00s and the primary cycle seen 13.00s to 78.00s, not bad.
Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX
During the last time cycle we we buying oil volatility on every dip at near bottoms knowing where the time cycle peak was, $OVX was in the 20’s and rocketed in to the 300s fast, we didn’t hit that by coincidence. Our $VIX model is clear, the cycles are very clear. #timecycles
During the last time cycle we we buying oil volatility on every dip at near bottoms knowing where the time cycle peak was, $OVX was in the 20's and rocketed in to the 300s fast, we didn't hit that by coincidence. Our $VIX model is clear, the cycles are very clear. #timecycles pic.twitter.com/SZ8vzMQwRg
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 1, 2020
So this is an example of how the primary volatility indicator $VIX time cycles can be used for other related market instruments and also why it is important to have the time cycle models for the other instruments you trade as well, in this instance crude oil. What a trade that was.
Most recent $OVX Crude Oil Volatility started to spike in March from 20.00s to 330.00 and then really hit end of April in to 500s. #swingtrading $OVX
We also use $TVIX and / or $UVXY on short time frames right in to the time cycles. Instruments you do not want to hold.
$TVIX up 41% today, pays HUGE to know your Time Cycles, also protects your ass ets knowing the time cycles $VIX #volatilitytrading #timecycles
$TVIX up 41% today, pays HUGE to know your Time Cycles, also protects your ass ets knowing the time cycles $VIX #volatilitytrading #timecycles pic.twitter.com/oTfy2E2lem
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) June 11, 2020
So that is a review of what has happened in volatility so far in 2020 and next we need to look at what’s next in volatility trading and develop our trading strategies for volatility and related instruments.
Part 2 (premium) article for Volatility $VIX time cycles will provide the charting models, time cycle dates for primary volatility time cycles, inflection dates on watch, compressed volatility within volatility dates, support (buy zones) with timing and resistance selling zones with price targets for the dates within the cycles going in Q3 and Q4 2020 and then in to 2021.
The most recent Swing Trading Sunday $STUDY Webinar session on June 14, 2020 had a dedicated segment on volatility time cycles so in part 2 we will start with that video and then start to break open all of the trading strategies for volatility going forward.
There will be historic opportunities in these large time cycle between 2020 – 2025 as I have been saying for a number of years, do not waste it! This is a life changing season of trade for traders.
Part 2 of this article is available here for members:
As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.
Peace and best.
Curt
Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):
- Swing Trading Performance Summary (Q4 2019, Q1 2020 Interim): Return %, Gain/Loss, Win/Loss Rate, Number of Trades.
- Swing Trading Alert Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 1543.93% Feb 1-Feb 21, 2020. $200,000.00 – $230,051.00 #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 64.45% Jan 1 – Jan 31, 2020. $200,000.00 – $208119.00. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 246.31% Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2019. $200,000.00 – $220,898.50. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 315.32% Nov 1 – Nov 30, 2019. $200,000.00 – $224,130.16. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 62.69% October 2019. $100,000.00 – $103,970.20. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss Annualized 355.22%. March 26 – June 28, 2017. $204,616.60 – $303,443.60. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading (Short Term Trades) Profit Loss Annualized 2,437.96%. April 3 – June 28, 2017. $17,354.69 – $37,713.16 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing and Day Trading Profit Loss – Annualized 957.90% Dec 26, 2016 – March 26, 2017. $100,000.00 – $180,347.88 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
Subscribe to Swing Trading Service:
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Article Topics; swing trading, time cycles, volatility, $VIX, $VXX, $OVX, $UVXY,, $TVIX
Post Market Wrap Up Trading Day Comments “The World is Opening Up Again”
#daytrading #swingtrading #oiltrading
RE: Post market report with VIDEO covering trade reviews on day trading, swing and oil trading alert feeds, Volatility, Oil, SPY, GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN, APPLE, TESLA, AMAZON, TWITTER, FACEBOOK, PAGER DUTY, CHEGG, OVX, GOOGLE and more.
My first post market review on cell phone recorded on YouTube, tomorrow I’ll try the camera on my phone sideways and see if I can get a larger field of view, if not maybe I’ll hobble around with my GoPro in future.
I’ve just been shooting these videos on Twitter but I’ll start to post them to Twitter, YouTube Facebook etc. Show folks where I am in my travels while I do a quick Market Wrap Up each day after our day trading session in the trading room. Sorry about the wind.
So it looks like the world is opening up, Florida was looking normal again, busy place now again.
In my trader premarket trading note this morning could see the run up coming on the day so I sent out a second premarket guidance note before market open.
We had the move dialed in and were ready for a great day of daytrading and swing trade positioning and management of booking profits.
Market Outlook
We got the bounce today we were looking for, we expected markets Monday to be soft and Tuesday to bounce and we got it.
Swing trade alert feed below shows guidance comments Monday morning toward general intra day outlook;
“General market view – I just surveyed the best 10 traders I know, all agreed on equities – watching only (likely pop Tuesday), I am concerned about possible drop in AMZN symmetry and on oil bullish to 25 – 30, trading 22.23 FX USOIL WTI.”
https://twitter.com/SwingAlerts_CT/status/1257326486056558593
General market view – watching only (likely pop Tuesday), concerned about possible drop AMZN symmetry, oil bullish to 25-30 trading 22.23 FX USOIL WTI. #swingtradealerts
Crude Oil
Oil trade is on a tear, we had alerted to the swing trade and oil trade alerts feed we were expecting the next leg up for 25.00 – 30.00 and it hit 26.62 today (so far) on FX USOIL WTI. API is on deck next here with EIA tomorrow.
Crazy bullish run. We seen a few day trade set-ups today, I got one at regular USA market open and the second set-up alerted to the oil trade alerts feed was a prime set-up.
I wrote an article on the oil day trade set-up (click here) based on a 200 MA buy trigger on the one minute chart, that ended up being the best intra-day buy / continuation point in oil. The price of oil rallied 147 points to a high of day at time of writing 26.62 and looks like it is about to break higher. The article has screen shots of the oil trade alert feed and charting and a step by step how to trade the strategy.
Alert from the oil trade alert premium feed below:
“On the 1 min time frame 25.15 200 MA is attractive test for a crude oil day trade pop up scalp – trading 25.68. #oiltradealerts.”
Oil trade alert premium feed 1 minute time frame 25.15 200 MA attractive test crude oil day trade scalp #oiltradealerts
Tech Leaders
Apple, Intel, Twitter we’re doing well in on our Swing Trading Alerts platform (members can refer to the charts).
Facebook, Google and Amazon I’ve sat out. I’ve always done well in all three but Amazon has a symmetry issue for a possible sell off in to beginning of September that I don’t like and the Tech leaders have other geo political black swan potential that I outlined in detail on the Swing Trading Alert Premium feed that our subscribers should review.
I may still take trades in $FB $GOOGL $AMZN but any of the tech leaders I will hold only with hard stops, again, the explanation is on the swing trade alert feed.
Gold, Silver, Bitcoin.
The swing trades, alerts and chart models have been running well in Gold, Silver and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is stronger because of the BTC specific halving event and the 1200.00 cheques from the Fed.
Silver continues to struggle, I’ve explained to members – I think the most recent explanation for this expectation for Silver was on the weekend Swing Trading $STUDY videos, I go in to an explanation there. Silver is on the first of four videos from that $STUDY session.
And Gold is expected to be moderately strong and continue to trade well within the structure chart model that has been on point for many months.
Again, look at weekend $STUDY videos for details, charts and trading plan(s) for Bitcoin, Gold and Silver.
Volatility $VIX $OVX
Volatility is getting close to support / but triggers, we have a plan to accumulate in to the end of August 2020 that the Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY videos review.
A warning toward volatility surprises between here and election. Volatility, tech leaders and the whole market.
Miscellaneous Other Swing Trades.
TESLA I am shorting at key resistance points. This is my current nemesis.
CHEGG has been a payday swing trade over and over, today was quite a run up.
Pager Duty (PD) swing trade has been decent.
TGTX swing trade paid big on my 10% remaining runner today.
Apple (AAPL) had a big day, we continue to do very well with Apple swing trades, the model is very precise that we use.
Many more.
Daytrading Alert Feed.
Looking to get that new day trading alert feed rocking because I want maxed out Swing Trading positioning for personal best returns in the next two time cycles in the markets in to end of August, through election and thereafter. Basically I want to be able to size in to themes in to the election and the best way to do that is to have the swing trading models all firing also on a daytrading time-frame for the highest possible return on the trades.
How About that Mortality Rate?
anyone know the morbidity rate on the first? https://t.co/FIPO18DOdI
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) May 5, 2020
The End of the World Didn’t Happen!
Looks like it wasn’t the end of the world after-all (at least not this round), so I’m going to get some new free diving gear this weekend and start hitting it deep again next week. A pic of my front yard below a friend sent me today.
“The only place where I can find true silence 🐚💦 #illbebacksoon”. Stay safe, stay curious. The pristine waters of Dominican Republic will be waiting for you.
📸: @georgina_monti📍 Cabarete pic.twitter.com/8A4gm6vAHH
— Dominican Republic (@GoDomRep) May 5, 2020
2020 Trader’s Summit.
The minute we’re all off lock down I will be announcing our 2020 trader’s summit. Don’t miss this event in Cabarete Dominican Republic. This is 3 days of 12 hours a day deep study and trading with myself and our lead trader group.
Members get first pick on the in person seats (10). Price is 1999.00 and current members will be discounted 50%. If you can’t make it you can attend online (25 person maximum).
Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Sessions.
Do not miss these swing trade study sessions, for 100.00 we serve up 10 session blocks of 4 hours of weekly deep trade set-up study. If you don’t 10x 100x or more return on that investment you should quit trading.
Weekly Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Webinars 7-11 PM.
Prepare for Trading Week Set-Ups (Trades On Watch).
100.00/10 Weeks (40 hrs of study) members 50.00. Video provided if you can’t attend live.
$CL_F $USO $WTI $SPY $VIX $GLD $GC_F $SLV $BTC $USD $DXY
Weekly Sunday Swing Trade $STUDY Webinars 7-11 PM.
Prepare for Trading Week Set-Ups (Trades On Watch).
100.00/10 Weeks (40 hrs of study) members 50.00. Video provided if you can't attend live.https://t.co/OjnmpDlIvJ$CL_F $USO $WTI $SPY $VIX $GLD $GC_F $SLV $BTC $USD $DXY
— Swing Trading (@swingtrading_ct) May 3, 2020
Written reports will be out tonight for the follow up on the Sunday Swing Trading $STUDY session. Also new set ups, chart models and trading strategies coming for other new trades in play.
And don’t forget, pins can be pulled and likely will – stay awake and use stops if need be (see screen shots in tweets below)
Peace and best ,
Curt
I didn't just tell u a false flag was coming right before it came.
I didn't just tell u they would pull pins on financial markets right before they did.
I didn't just tell u COVID19 math was wrong day 1.
I have told u many things in advance, with timing.
🎯🏹🔥#timecycles
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 19, 2020
Dec 19 call for pins to be pulled, last time cycle published, Feb 13 out of long positions 90% (publicly) then we hammered down short $NKE $WYNN $MA etc..
Why is this important?
For a victory lap? How bout truth.#Timecycles, market instrument structure.
Natural law.
🎯🏹🔥 pic.twitter.com/sV4NgPrcqs
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 5, 2020
Article topics; post market, market, review, trades, day trading, swing trading, oil trading, alerts, Volatility, Oil, SPY, GOLD, SILVER, Bitcoin, APPLE, TESLA, AMAZON, TWITTER, Facebook, Pager Duty, CHEGG, OVX, GOOGLE
PART 1: How to Swing Trade Volatility $VIX Time-Cycles and Achieve Much Higher Gains (ROI) in Equities, Commodities, Indices, Crypto and Theme Trades.
In my opinion, this is the single most important skill a trader can possess, charting and trading time-cycle inflections within the markets.
Below is Part 1 of my new $STUDY guide series for swing traders and daytraders alike.
I am asked all the time why my Swing Trading win percentage is high, most assume I am a mystic of some sort because I always write about or share on social media charting or comments relating to market time-cycles. Seriously, people message me all the time with these sorts of assertions or questions.
In the technical analysis work I do in time-cycles there is nothing mystic about it at all. I don’t sit on a tripod, I don’t meditate (at least in the way you might imagine), I don’t look to the stars or special numbers. I use structural mathematical chart modeling and more often than not geometric charting structures built on Fibonacci levels.
Every financial instrument has a natural trading structure, patterns or as some refer to it as chart memory.
In nature all entities have a natural order or structure, this is the premise of Fibonacci. Financial instruments are natural in that they are traded on public markets by humans – this makes the instruments natural in structure.
However, there are times where specific events such as world calamities occur like COVID-19 Black Swan Event, the Iraq war, the 911 terrorist attack etc.
During these times the trading structure of financial instruments is more often than not divergent – or trading outside of its natural structure.
Central bank intervention (QE) can also cause divergent trade within a stock, commodity, indices etc as can company news (referring to publicly traded stocks). The smaller the company the more opportunity for divergent trade outside of the natural structure. Here the trade instrument or market liquidity becomes important.
If then random events cause the natural trade action of a stock (or whatever) to not be normal this is usually accompanied by increased volatility. A great example of this is the recent COVID-19 Black Swan Event and how it affected various markets around the world.
A specific example can be seen in the trade action of crude oil futures, and more specifically the trade volatility of crude oil, which is called or traded as symbol $OVX . Oil volatility (OVX) was trading in the 20’s (where we were accumulating based on time cycle work) and when the Black Swan event hit the price of $OVX Oil Volatility hit 334.00s, an incredible win. This was all based on time cycle work.
Below is a chart showing the trade action of OVX (Oil Volatility) during the COVID-19 Black Swan Event.
Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) chart showing oil trade volatility spiking from the 20s to 330s during black swan event.
So if we know that specifically time cycle events (that normally come with increased volatility) occur within public markets then is it possible that knowing the structure of volatility (VIX) itself and related financial instruments such as oil volatility (OVX) can assist with a trader’s bias for trading various stocks, metals, currencies, crypto, indices and more?
The answer is yes. But it gets better.
Each instrument itself has its own natural order, or structure. The instrument structure say for example with Apple (AAPL) stock can then be charted on various time-frames from weekly, daily, hourly etc (we chart on thirteen time-frames). This provides a trader with the structure of timing for volatility and price trajectory on various time-frames, for investing, swing trading and daytrading.
And it even gets better (like the TV commercials haha) because when a trader understands how the volatility (VIX) and market time-cycles can line up and also with various themes (for example stock or sector themes) then things get really interesting for your ROI because now you have all structures of trade firing together in a symbiotic fashion. It becomes pure trading ecstasy.
This my friends is why our swing trading platform is so successful and why we structure our trade bias the way we do.
When the iron is hot we strike (time cycles) and when it cools we are taking profit and in deep $STUDY of the financial instrument structures and time cycles.
Another recent example is when the market bull seemed as though it would never stop, and four days before it stopped in a very volatile fashion we publicly announced that we were taking our profits and leaving our long positions behind, we cashed out. This, was done with time cycle work.
The tweet below explains (and shows the actual swing trade alerts) of some of our time cycle work,
I am explaining that I knew about the Black Swan event coming (called it Dec 19, 2019) and then on February 13, 2020 4 days before the market started to collapse we publicly announced we were taking our profits in the bull run home and closing longs.
And then even better yet, we sized in to shorting NIKE, WYNN and MASTERCARD for epic wins. This is where your profits are, in the time cycle inflections, everything else is $STUDY and positioning (managing size and getting your position and trajectory of trade right for the boom).
“Dec 19 call for pins to be pulled, last time cycle published, Feb 13 out of long positions 90% (publicly) then we hammered down short $NKE $WYNN $MA etc..
Why is this important?
For a victory lap? How bout truth.
#Timecycles, market instrument structure.
Natural law.”
Dec 19 call for pins to be pulled, last time cycle published, Feb 13 out of long positions 90% (publicly) then we hammered down short $NKE $WYNN $MA etc..
Why is this important?
For a victory lap? How bout truth.#Timecycles, market instrument structure.
Natural law.
🎯🏹🔥 pic.twitter.com/sV4NgPrcqs
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) April 5, 2020
So in part two of this article (it will be Premium member only) we will look specifically at Volatility (VIX) and how the time cycles within volatility work and then we’ll move to various stock theme swing trades we are looking at in this current time cycle along with also doing some articles over the coming days on the trade set-ups within this cycle for crypto, metals, indices, currencies and more.
This time period now is all about getting ready, understanding how time cycles work, starting to get our positioning in the various themes of trade and watching for the trajectories to line up between now and the peak of the next time cycle and the one after.
Also, before I forget, I am also going to be covering in articles for our members soon the need for a proper trading plan before entering your trade including how to size your trade, how to ebb and flow the support and resistance within the structure, sizing and trading the time cycle inflections of the instrument and more.
If you need help with a trade set-up email me at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.
Thanks,
Curt
Part Two in this $STUDY Series can be found here:
Current List of Available P&Ls (remaining dates are in progress now to be released soon):
- Swing Trading Performance Summary (Q4 2019, Q1 2020 Interim): Return %, Gain/Loss, Win/Loss Rate, Number of Trades.
- Swing Trading Alert Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 1543.93% Feb 1-Feb 21, 2020. $200,000.00 – $230,051.00 #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 64.45% Jan 1 – Jan 31, 2020. $200,000.00 – $208119.00. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 246.31% Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2019. $200,000.00 – $220,898.50. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 315.32% Nov 1 – Nov 30, 2019. $200,000.00 – $224,130.16. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss – Annualized ROI 62.69% October 2019. $100,000.00 – $103,970.20. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading Profit Loss Annualized 355.22%. March 26 – June 28, 2017. $204,616.60 – $303,443.60. #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing Trading (Short Term Trades) Profit Loss Annualized 2,437.96%. April 3 – June 28, 2017. $17,354.69 – $37,713.16 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
- Swing and Day Trading Profit Loss – Annualized 957.90% Dec 26, 2016 – March 26, 2017. $100,000.00 – $180,347.88 . #swingtrading #tradealerts
Subscribe to Swing Trading Service:
Swing Trading Bundle (Swing Trading Newsletter, Live Swing Trading Alerts, Study Guides).
Swing Trading Newsletter (Weekly Newsletter Published for Traders).
Real-Time Swing Trading Alerts (Private Member on Twitter Feed and more recently by way of Email).
Swing Trading Study Guide Newsletters (After Trade In-Depth Reviews Including Set-Up Identification, Trading Plan, Sizing, Risk Management, ROI and more).
One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or In-Person).
Free Mailing List(s):
Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.
Free Swing Trading Periodical Contact Form (Complimentary Swing Trade Set-Ups to Email)
Public Chat:
Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.
Free Mailing List(s):
Join Email List for Free Trade Charting Trade Set-ups, Deals, Podcasts and Public Webinars.
Free Swing Trading Periodical Contact Form (Complimentary Swing Trade Set-Ups to Email)
Public Chat:
Visit our Free Public Chat Room on Discord.
Follow:
Article Topics; swing trading, time cycles, volatility, VIX, stocks, commodities, crypto, metals, indices, trading, currencies, Fibonacci, charting, markets, black swan events