Why a Trader’s Winning Percentage Matters: Trader Question & Answer (also discussed time cycles, $VIX, market extremes)

A question and answer on WhatsApp this morning between myself and one of our newer swing trading subscribers.

[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Hi curt , for VIX , what instrument do you recommend for buying the insurance ?
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: we use VXX
[10:19 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Ok thanks , and do you treat it like a normal position size ?
[10:20 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: yes, but you have to consider it insurance on shorter time frames, but yes, none are great trading vehicles but for insurance not so bad, but sometimes you get lucky too on top of insurance haha
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Ok thank you 🙏
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: no problem, just be aware the VIX toward end of XXXX could see XXXXs!
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: could
[10:22 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: nobody knows
[10:23 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I gather time cycle can be big increase or decrease right ?
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: correct, we don’t know which direction, we know where
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but i’m protecting our positions over long weekend, for me, market is too happy, for me thats a potential problem
[10:24 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: same as when market is selling off crazy
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but like oil selling off haha there is no bottom
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: and there is no top
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: but when things are extreme i like caution, and right now i see extreme, in to a long weekend, imo thats risky
[10:25 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I find these time cycles pretty fascinating
[10:26 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: yes, the deeper in to it you get the better you will get at reading them
[10:26 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: it is where most of our profit comes from
[10:27 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: the new P&L release will show you in great detail, should be out this weekend
[10:28 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: I gather the general situation for the group is few recommendations until time cycle direction starts to show itself more
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: exactly, our money comes in to and out of the key areas, we still trade in between, but experience show and as you study time cycles, you’ll see why 80% of your ROI will come from being on top of the cycles
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: limits choppy losses too
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: choppy losses have an effect on your winning mind too
[10:29 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: avoiding loss is important
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: bottom line, you want your subconscious to only think win
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: because it will lead around your brain on a leash
[10:30 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: this is why i dont accept a 50% win rate is okay, even if you win big on wins
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: the top goal should be highest percentage of wins
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Trader: Love it
[10:31 AM, 7/2/2020] Curt: a trained mind is most important imo, then everything else follows

As always, if you have any questions reach out anytime compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Peace and best.

Curt

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Article Topics: Q&A, Trader, Trading, Swing Trading, VIX, Time Cycles, Market Timing


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Part 1 – Crude Oil Day Trade Strategy For 200 Ticks Win From Our Oil Trading Room – Step by Step Tips on How We Traded It and Alerted it Live

The main question for oil traders reading this and /or watching the instructional video should be, “How did we know that oil intra-day would most likely reverse where it did on the chart?”

The oil trading alert went out at 6:37 AM EST and the one prior to that was at 4:09 PM the day prior (Monday June 8, 2020), so it isn’t that we send out many alerts every day, we send our alerts only out when it is the most highly probable area of intra day trade for a win.

So why then at that time of day? What was happening with intra-day trade, the charting, time of day and with other signals that caused us to trade in size long at 6:37 AM EST today?

In short it was the only trade entry alert of the day, the trade was in size and it happened to be at the low price of trade on the day also.

Below are the secrets of this time tested oil trading strategy.

Important Tips for this Simple Intra-Day Crude Oil Trading Strategy

  • Time of Day is Important – Today’s 200 tick oil day trade was started in the morning prior to US regular market open and after many traders around the world in different time zones (and overnight Futures traders) have finished their trading day.
  • Chart Trend Lines – I teach students to always have classical charting trend lines for support and resistance ready at all times on all time-frames.
  • Key Algorithmic Charting Levels – Not all oil traders have this at their disposal, but this was one key reason for our trade success today..

Time of Day.

Time of day when day trading crude oil is very important. In this trade example it was the time of day where overnight futures traders (as far as USA traders are concerned) usually finish their day as well as some traders from around the world also (depending on time zone) and day traders in the U.S. start their day.

When traders start and stop their trading day is not the only time of day consideration.

There are other time of day considerations such as regular U.S. open premarket, regular U.S. market open at 9:30 AM EST, daily settlement at 2:30 PM EST, weekly inventory statistics from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 PM EST Tuesday’s and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 10:30 AM EST on Wednesdays.

Specifically as it applies to this intra-day oil trading strategy, this trade was taken when the overnight futures traders were typically finished “taking profits or losses” on their day trade sessions and the new batch of day trader liquidity was entering the market. VERY KEY. Again, today’s oil trade was first entered and alerted at 6:37 AM EST, in size.

Below is a screen capture image from our Oil Trading Room with the day trade execution at 6:37 AM for 6 contracts entered – adding to existing 6 contracts in the long position sequence of trade.

Also in the image are some of the alerts in the trading room as the trade progressed (this is the private member oil trade chat room in Discord, there is a live charting and mic broadcast room also).

You can also see in the image the lead trader discussing another time of day coming at 9:00 AM and to be prepared to watch the possible signals of oil trade at that specific time. Time of day in oil trading is one of the best signals oil day traders can use in their strategies.

oil trading room, alert for trade

Image from Oil Trading Room with day trade execution for 6 contracts added to existing 6 contracts long #oiltradingroom

Oil trading alerts screen capture of today’s oil trade that was first entered and alerted at 6:37 AM EST, in size.

Below is a screen capture of the actual oil trading alerts feed showing the lead tech alerting the buy in crude oil.

oil trading alert

Oil trading alert screen capture of today’s oil trade that was first entered and alerted at 6:37 AM EST, in size. #oiltradingalerts

The broker platform trade executions by our oil machine trading algorithm are shown (screen shots) in this tweet:

Crude oil trading alert feed today, deep dive early in premarket for a great 200 point rally through the day.

#OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL

#oiltradingalerts #machinetrading

Trading Trend Line Support and Break Outs.

In today’s trading action there was a trend line support signal on the charting for the long position at 6:37 AM and the a trend line break later in the day for a break out to continue the rally.

First, below see the initial support area of the trend line chart for the long trade entry. This signal is from a classical 1 hour oil chart with trend lines that included the mirrored fractal trading trend lines. This “mirrored fractal trend line” is where the signal was to enter the trade.

The one hour trading time frame is a significant oil trading signal because it is a larger than say a 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 or 30 minute chart timeline for daytrading. The one hour timing can be used also for intra-week trading signals.

The mirrored trend line fractal is a bit more than basic oil charting 101 in that it takes some technical analysis experience to learn, but not much and if you are an oil day trader it is a good skill to learn because the machine liquidity in the markets use mirrored fractals greatly.

You can see this technical charting skill helped garner a 200 point rally oil trade win today.

Crude Oil Trend line Chart, oil hit key support on the chart and this was one key signal for taking and alerting the trade.

oil trade alert, chart, trading room

Crude Oil Trend Line Chart, oil hit key support on the chart and this was one key signal for taking and alerting the trade #oiltradealerts

And then later in the day came the trend Line resistance break out.

I marked the intra day oil trend line resistance break out area on the chart below with a second red circle.

trendline, resistance, oil trading strategy

I marked the intra day oil trend line resistance break out area on the chart below with a second red circle.

I recently did a video instructional on oil trend line resistance break outs that explains the rules and tips for how to trade intraday break outs above a trend line resistance. It was identical to today’s set up and signals that produced this excellent win.

Here is an excerpt from that article:

Three Possible Trade Scenarios When Price Breaks Out;

1. The break out fails. This is possible so be sure to use stops or reverse your trade if the break out of resistance fails.
2. The break out succeeds and price keeps running without a retest of previous resistance (now support). If price does not come back to test support of the trend line then you have to be prepared to take the trade long and go with price action.
3. And finally, price breaks out of resistance and then comes back to retest the new support (which was previously the resistance of the trendline structure).

You can find Part 1 to the article with video tutorial here:

Simple Crude Oil Intraday Trading Strategy – Trading Bullish Trend Line Resistance Break-Out. #OOTT $CL_F $USO #CrudeOilTradingStrategies

and 

Part 2 for our premium members is here:

Protected: What’s Next? Crude Oil Trading Strategy – Trading Trend Line Resistance Break-Outs (PREMIUM, Part 2) #CrudeOil #TimeCycles #OOTT $CL_F $USO

Trend line break outs, especially on larger time frame charting such as the one hour like with today’s trading are very powerful signals.

I even publicly gave my Twitter followers a bit of a heads up intra-day because I could see the trend line breach set up coming. My tweet went out at 11:30 AM and shortly after noon oil was in break out mode above the trend line resistance.

oil shorties could get wrecked here

In Part 2 of this article we will take a look at how the swing trading strategies played in to this set up for our Swing Trade Alert service members.

In Part 3 for our Pro Oil Day Traders (Oil Trade Subscribers) we will look at the algorithmic charting structures that enabled this successful trade.

The video tutorial for this specific article (Part 1) is below.

As always, any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

< Updated June 10 7:41 AM EST >

There is another classical charting reason possible for crude oil’s 200 Point reversal rally intra-day, Fibonacci level 50% was hit perfectly.

Nonetheless, there were strong algorithmic charting reasons for the reversal rally intra-day that I will go in to in more detail for our oil trader members in Part 3. Considering the machine trading liquidity in the oil trading markets I would weigh those indicators / signals much more greatly than the chart below. 

crude oil, intraday, reversal, trade

There is another classical charting reason possible for crude oil’s 200 Point reversal rally intra-day, Fibonnaci level 50% was hit perfectly.

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

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Article Topics; Oil, Trading, Alerts, Oil Trading Room, Strategies, Day Trading, Intra Day, Trend Lines, Break – Outs, Support, Time of Day


Market Update: Premarket Trading

Morning traders,

Monday was quiet for us, most of the portfolio rising, some trimming of profits of course, best swing run in our history.

The Boeing $BA trade below is an example of the time cycle we’ve had on the swing trading platform:

What a great trade, more than a double in Boeing $BA from 107s to 231s, holding some profit runner 🎯🏹🔥

#swingtrading

Still have many profit runners and new positions start over the next 7 or 8 trading days for the cycle in to end of August – watch the swing trade alerts feed for new positions as we come out of this time cycle inflection.

$AAPL $INTC – Apple announcing Mac chips at WWDC – Bloomberg https://seekingalpha.com/news/3581457-apple-announcing-mac-chips-wwdc-bloomberg?source=tweet #swingtrading

Today is soft so far, except some highly speculative day trader stocks $IDEX $IZEA $EYES $AQMS etc wow. Watching close.

Going to short TESLA $TSLA to the moon and back when the time is right

“I would like to be able to get more money to buy more
@Tesla
actually,” says legendary investor Ron Baron. $TSLA

We’re in live trading room, EPIC oil trading software active so the live oil trading alerts are also, likely some day trades firing in to open and swing trading reporting coming today with a number of set-ups, time cycle inflection last week this week so we’ll see how that goes.

Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE

oil trading alerts, trading room, crude oil

Active morning for EPIC V3.1.1 crude oil trading alerts, went deep diving 37.25 trading 38.22 inta day #OOTT $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $XLE

Oil down on stronger dollar, oversupply concerns https://reut.rs/2Ygx7DV #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL Thread https://twitter.com/davidgaffen/status/1270322515047481346

Some on schedule:

FOMC

FOMC decision: What to know in the week ahead

8:55
Redbook

10:00
Wholesale Trade
JOLTS

4:30
API Crude Oil Data with EIA 10:30 Wed

LIVE: President
@realDonaldTrump
holds a news conference

Thanks

Curt

 

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