How to Day Trade Crude Oil – Price Range (Low & Highs), Trends / Channels, Reversals, Sizing (Trims, Adds, Stops) and Timing – Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy (Part 2 Premium).
This article is part 2 of the previous public post, “How to Know & How We Alerted (In Advance) Crude Oil Intra-Day Bottom Price, Day High, Trend (PT 1)“.
I apologize for the detail in these posts, but the reality is that it takes a detailed systematic rules-based process to day trade crude oil.
You want to win in a way that provides the highest probability of win rate and return? It takes skill. Skill requires knowledge and refinement of execution.
We have been developing machine trade software for some time – this has taught us a lot, and I’m not talking about a simple trading bot kind of development.
The process of development had us trading and back testing in every time frame, every structure, every set up, every range, sequence within all, trend, order flow and more.
As we learned we shared much of this information with our clients (yes learning, after 30 years of experience).
You can read a recent client memo that explains the multi-month process we embarked on, where we are at now with development and where we are going in future here, “Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Complete | Rule-Set Strategies, Alerts, Accounts Traded, What’s Next?”
The goal now is to simplify the processes (the most probable crude oil trading set-ups) and provide our clients with the most simple, clear, systematic how-to documents, videos, coaching, trading room guidance etc so that traders can duplicate what we are doing to achieve success in day to day trade.
In short, we have coded our machine trade software to trade only that which we know has the highest probability of win rate success and we will endeavor to share this with our community.
We know where we can and where we cannot win, and going forward we will only be trading that which we know with high probability that we will win.
Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its win rate (we are not experimenting going forward, we are done).
Our machine trading software will now consistently improve its return rate and over all success.
We expect this process to take about 90 trading days. After this, we expect to only be doing maintenance to the software.
So how do you duplicate what we learned? See below.
General Requirements of a Successful Oil Day Trader:
Strategy is Mandatory: When you sit down to day trade crude oil futures you need a clear plan.
- Your trading plan has to be based in reality.
- Reality is the nature of the instrument you are trading.
- You can have all the plans you want, but if you do not know the nature of the instrument you are trading, you will lose.
Trading Edge: This article is a study of the nature of crude oil intra-day price action and how to execute trades so that you maintain the highest probability of success – your trading strategy edge.
- When you acquire a trading edge for a specific instrument of trade then you become profitable. This requires knowing the nature of the instrument better than your competition, refining your process and then executing the process without thinking.
- This is not unlike a professional tennis, football, hockey or whatever player. Think warrior, think training, think skills.You have to be able to execute – pull the trigger, without thinking. After all, your primary competitors are now machines, more specifically many are AI, and they don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
Nature of the Instrument of Trade and Associated Returns: Crude oil embodies one of the most complicated (abstract) natures of trade (structure of instrument) – but also possesses one of the most profitable opportunities for a trader.
- The structures of trade on various time-frames for crude oil are complicated but at the same time they are not, they are logical, mathematical, geometric and follow a natural order. You just need to know what that order / structure is and what the nature of trade is within each time-frame of structure.
- Oil trading provides significant return potential because it is so structured (yet complicated for the casual observer or trader). Trade set-ups can be repeated over and over again on each time-frame daily, weekly, monthly and so on.
- Crude oil can be traded with CL futures contracts, ETN’s on the regular equity markets (leveraged instruments of trade such as DWT and UWT) and with various other FX products and instruments. Most of which provide opportunity for leverage.
Welcome to the World Cup: I often say that if you can trade crude oil successfully, you can trade anything.
- I am instantly bored day trading equities and swing trading equities, commodities etc now that I’ve been schooled by the best of the best AI’s and traders in crude oil futures. I still day and swing trade equities (always will), but it is like going back to grade school.
Success! So You’re an Expert Oil Trader Now.
- An expert oil trader knows (with weighted probability) when and where to enter and exit trades (when and where to size in to his/her entries), when and where the trade should be trimmed or see adds, what the likely price trend is to be (on various time-frames), when and where price trend is likely to reverse and how to allow for appropriate variance on stops.
- In short, an expert oil trade understands when structured timing is or is most likely to be in play for the most predictable trades and what each time-frame will look like (the nature of the structure within each time-frame). Various market timing becomes key.
Oh Wait: Fundamentals are Required.
- Add to all the above requirements… an expert oil trader also needs a keen understanding of fundamental and geopolitical frame-works.
The Competition: Welcome to the Matrix.
- The majority of crude oil is now traded by machine (and much of that is now sophisticated AI, and I’m not talking simple bots that you see advertised for retail traders in FX markets).
- In short, the goal is to know what the machines (that control the most liquidity) are doing, how they trade, what decisions they are executing their trades to, etc.
- If you know what the machines are doing you can then join the ride. You can be (with high probability) on the right side of the trade.
Master the above requirements and you then have some of the primary skills that make for a successful oil trader.
High Priority Signals / Associated Skills Needed For A Successful Crude Oil Day Trading Strategy:
Below I list in point form the signals you will need to know and then need to execute with precision. It is important to note here that the points below intertwine – in other words, the various points relate to each other symbiotically, they affect each other and become the nature of trade.
For simplicity I numbered them to assist with your study, your focus. You can use this like a check-list before entering a trade or before starting your day. Or, if you lost a trade (your discipline is off) you can review the numbered list below before taking another trade.
The information will provide you clues as to how the machine software is now coded, coded specifically to the highest probability win rate and being tweaked over the next 90 days to increase size and return to point of losing and then will be trimmed back and then idle.
The information below will provide a manual human trader the highest opportunity of success if you focus on the study needed and the repetitive training to then execute trades without thinking (with limited emotion).
The conventional and algorithmic charting required to execute the set-ups explained below are included in our client oil trading bundle (newsletters, alerts, trading room).
# 1 – Range of Trade.
Knowing the trading range is really critical for your trading strategy. Having a plan for the most probable high & low area of trade for the time-frame you are going to trade is paramount. This is accomplished with conventional and algorithmic charting.
This is the range on charting time-frames if you draw a simple horizontal line at top and bottom. Approximately where is the range?
Your positioning bias is then to be short at the top of the range and long at the bottom of the range (with many other considerations that make up your position size, where you trickle out, whether you trade the ebb and flow within the range, your stops and more).
If the over all trend is bullish you won’t size in as much on the short side of the upper range of trade on the time frame you are trading and the opposite is true if the over all trend is bearish.
It may be that you 1. enter your trade at the range limits and don’t touch the trade and exit at the opposite range. Or, 2. you may trickle out size as the trade progresses. Or, 3. you may (expert level here) even trade the ebb and flow of the range.
And then boom! you catch the trend reversal and repeat the process… over and over. Some days many times a day. This is the opportunity for an oil trader that equity traders don’t have available to them.
- Intra-Day Trading Range. Right Now What is the Trading Range? Where is Trade Likely To Trend Next When it Reverses?
- What is the playing field today? Knowing where the range of trade is right now on the charting, where it has been recently, where it is likely to be near future. What is the current range of trade? What is the likely trend going forward?
- Wider Trading Range Time-Frames.
- Knowing where the trading range is intra-day is important but also know where it has been on a wider time frame is also important to know. This is important because if trade leaves the current range you then know where the next range is likely to be.
- Why is it important to know the trading range on various time-frames and where the trend is likely to reverse?
- Support and Resistance. The key support and resistance areas on intra-day and wider trading ranges become key for decisions in the trade range itself – areas for entry, exits, adds, trims, sizing and more.
- Precise Entry and Exit. Knowing the range of trade is important for high probability trade entries and exits and this can significantly increase your return on each trade (if you can enter and exit with precision).
- Managing Stops and Sizing. Range of trade is also important for sizing your initial trade entry, trimming your trade size and / or adding to your trade. The idea here is to enter trades at the outside edges of the most probable areas / range of trade, weighing your entry size and stops more so when you are trading the most probable trend of trade and it is also important for knowing when to trickle out / trim positions as the range trade progresses.
- Using Conventional Charting and Algorithmic Models to Determine Range.
- Check your conventional charting on various time-frames (1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly) and do not ignore the algorithmic models (these are where the machines will bias sizing).
- Generally an oil day trader is trading the range of the 1 minute through to 4 hour hour. I most often am using the 1, 5, 15 and 30 minute structured algorithmic models.
- When you have an understanding of the range frame-work on conventional and algorithmic charting you are now prepared with your range trading bias for the day. You are also ready for the most probable areas of trend reversal.
# 2 Trend of Trade and Channels.
Where are the general trends of trade on various time-frames? Is price trending up or down? This can be difficult to assess when you consider the nature of crude oil – this is why the static range (as above in #1) is so important. Also, are there channels of trade in play on various time-frames?
- Price Trends. Know What the Current Trend Is.
- Is there a channel of trade or a range to work with? Are there channel set-ups within various time-frames of charting and times of day or week that tend to repeat?
- Reversals. Where and when is the trend likely to end / reverse.
- Key support and resistance areas on various time frames. Here again, range of trade, trend and trading channels.
- Algorithmic structured time cycles. There are time cycles on each algorithmic model. You need to know these well. The machines are coded to bias trades at these time cycles. This is critical.
- Time of day or week considerations for various markets in play or events such as EIA and daily settlement for example) and what the likely trend will be next for the continuation of your trading plan.
# 3 – Time of Day.
Time of day is critical. You need to bias your trade size, your expectation of key support and resistance being respected, your expectation of trends finding continuation etc.
- Early futures trade. Early futures trade is usually sloppy unless there is a geopolitical event. It usually has near zero range. It usually does not respect any of the conventional or algorithmic structures on charting. Use extreme caution.
- As Global Markets Open. As markets in Asia and Europe etc open then trade starts to get more and more structured. Usually around 3 am Eastern trade become more structured. This can start earlier at around 11:00 PM the night prior but I like to avoid trade until at least 3:00 AM Eastern.
- The session between 3:00 AM to 7:30 AM (all approximate ranges of time) typically is a session in of itself and a reversal is very possible around 7:30. Quite often if trade has been trending up during this session then the air is slowly let out of the balloon for the hand off that occurs around 8:00 AM for the US day traders.
- Then around 8:00 AM you will start to see volume increase significantly, especially on the half hour marks leading in to the regular US Market open.
- At 8:30 AM, 9:00 and 9:30 this is where the trend for the morning session for the regular US market is usually determined.
- Around 11:00 AM the trend is then consolidated for a further move up in the afternoon session, or sideways range bound trade or a reversal. The opposite of course is true.
- Prepare for some volatility around settlement at 2:30 PM and around API Tuesday 4:30 and EIA Wednesday at 10:30 AM.
- Friday afternoons can trend price in a way that is not possible on most days.
- Many days you will find that late afternoon is a slow melt up, melt down or sideways. Shorting the melt up is foolish.
- Above are just some examples.
# 4 – Intra Day Time Cycles.
Time cycles have been discussed some above. The basic consideration here is that each algorithmic model (on various time-frames) includes time cycles that are foolish to ignore. The larger the time-frame the more important the time cycle.
- For example, there is a large time cycle on the weekly model that expired (or peaked) last week. On such a large time cycle a week either way is considered and then trend thereafter becomes weighted heavily in bias of trade.
- Another example is the 5 minute algorithmic charting model, there are time cycle peaks every 3 hours within a specific structure. These are key to understand for a day trader. Not just where the time cycle peaks are, but the nature of trade around each peak.
The algorithmic reports and the discord member chat room are key for learning how to take advantage of the time cycles.
# 5 – Cut Losses Fast. Using Stop Losses. Sizing.
Crude oil trade is vicious. It can ruin a trader’s confidence fast. It can also destroy a trader’s account.
If you have the rules in place, you know the structure of trade, you are sizing in accordance to your threshold appropriate to your account size then you will be fine. Capital protection is by far one of the most important skills you can acquire.
For my personal account this is critical. This changes somewhat when you know that you can make up the bad trade(s) – you have the skill-set and just have to reset. But until you have the proven experience it is important to protect your capital. This discipline can also be different if you are developing software as in our case (we achieved 63% returns and then lost up to 30% in a month developing the software). But this again is different because (as in our case) when you stop developing and simply deploy software to execute to only trade what is most probable you know it will make up the losses.
But for a human trade executing mechanically (manual trades) the cut losses fast is a critical skill-set. You need to know what trade structure is in play, you need to execute to the outside ranges of that structure and you need to size appropriately. If the structure, the plan goes against you, you then need to close your position fast.
- Stops should be set in accordance to the time-frame structure in play.
- Understanding that the machines will hunt stops is critical. This then highlights the necessity to place stops outside that range and consider trading a range of trade with increased sizing as the trade proves itself or size in at inflections of time cycles and increased volume and immediately close if it goes against you.
- If trading range it is better to consider giving the range room to work itself out. Add to the position as it proves out at the outside of the range and then trickle out / trim your position as it moves through the range.
- If trading a channel on a day trading time-frame then you should be more static about your entries and exits. More rigid. The channel on lower time frames will typically work or not work. A trading range has much more “give” to the range. The edges of the range are more blurred as the time-frame gets larger and larger.
Real World Trading Examples:
Below are excerpts from Part 1 of this article (in italics) to highlight the points discussed above.
I then also include charting and explanation about how we knew where price would likely bottom on the day and reverse (to provide one example).
Future posts will focus us down on real world examples from the live trading room and we’ll refine each trade set up and trading discipline skill one at a time, over and over again until you are winning at least 80% of your trades and over time you can then increase your trading size and returns.
I will include chart / screen shot (captures) but won’t provide charting links for proprietary algorithmic models in this post, members receive these regularly on email.
Low of Day Price & Reversal Trade Signal / Set Up .
Knowing with high probability where the low or high of day price will likely be is a great skill to have as an oil day trader. It will provide confidence in trade, allow for sizing considerations and so much more. Below is an example from our private oil trading chat discord server, trading room and oil alert feed.
Our traders learn how to set up their strategy, watch for the signals on the charting etc from the newsletter reports, charting updates continually sent out, guidance in the discord chat room, voice broadcast in oil trading room and alerts on the Twitter private feed.
At 10:54 AM I alert the oil trading room (with voice broadcast and charting), the oil chat room (see screen capture image below) and alert to the member Twitter feed (screen shot below) that we are looking at the 50.84 area of FX USOIL WTI for possible long trade (trend reversal) for a possible bottom price area on the day. We trade CL futures but alert on USOIL WTI for consistency between instruments of trade for crude oil.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]
How Did We Know Where Oil Trade Was Likely to Bottom on The Day?
We have structured models on all time frames. In this instance the EPIC Algorithmic Model on the 30 Minute provided the primary structure. Oil trade was trading down after the EIA numbers were released and we simply looked to the bottom of the current trading quad structure. We then cross reference the structure of support with trading models for larger time-frames and lower time-frames and as price nears the target area we look at time frames on smaller and smaller models.
When price action confirms on the 1 minute model, increasing volume is apparent, the order flow is confirmed (machine liquidity is entering from the markets in to the trade) then we start our trade and/or our machine software begins to trade.
Below is the EPIC Oil Algorithm 30 Minute Model. Many areas of structured support were hit and then price ran up approximately 150 ticks for a complete move from the bottom of the quadrant to the top of the trading quad. Perfect set-up.
The orange arrow is where price hit the machine execution line (where the larger liquidity players normally have machines coded to begin large entries), then trade confirmed above the swing trading wider range indicator on the model (the thick gray horizontal line) and then further confirmed at a considerable historical support (purple horizontal line).
Then at 11:54 the price of oil drops in to the area previously alerts, spikes down with a flash and trade reverses. In the oil chat room screen shot below you can see I alerted our long oil trade (machine trade in this instance) in the 50.70s and then the machine trade closed and fired a few other times. This ended up in fact being the low of day in trade. I had alerted that I was looking at the 50.84 area and price hit 50.70s and reversed.
Software fired in there 50.70 s to closing 50.90 s, I didn’t but we’ll see if it holds the range for a bounce.
Looking 50.84 area possible longs (bottom of quad) trading 51.26 intra. Shorting all pops thereafter in to quad area resistance.[/caption]
You can also see in the screen shot that I was sharing various chart set-ups to help our traders with their trading strategies for the day so they knew where the structured areas of support, resistance etc were.
Then at 12:07 PM I alerted to the oil trading room by voice broadcast, chat room with charting and on live alert feed that the structure of trade had improved and that we expected that the low of day for trade had in fact been put in confirming a reversal.
improved structure, likely near term low in
Then shortly after 12:00 I alerted (to live trading room, chat room, alert feed) that there was a time cycle peak coming at 2:15 (in other words if you are long on the reversal from the day lows that 2:15 would be the area of time on the day for a high for your price targeting on the trade).
I also gave the resistance levels between where trade was at near the bottom of the trading quad (near the reversal area at bottom) and where we seen the top price target of trade. In other words, if you are long the trade watch for the 20 MA on the 5 minute chart above and the mid quad (mid channel) resistance on the 30 minute EPIC model chart.
2:15 time cycle should be the top on any retrace up on the day
20 MA on 5 min overhead
2:15 PM time cycle most bullish scenario we have is 51.90 (mid channel on EPIC quad) trading 51.32
body of 30 min candle at machine line
Then after the resistance areas are overcome in uptrend trade on the day at 1:20 PM (in advance of the 2:15 time cycle peak) I alert in more detail the various price target areas that represent various model charts on different time-frames so that our traders know exactly what levels to watch as price nears both time and region of trade for our trending price targets for the day trade.
Resistance we are watching intra 51.86 mid channel EPIC, 52.14 5 min, 52.10 on 1 min, 2:15 time cycle peak, just hit 51.81 intra. Nice reversal intra in the EPIC quad from just below support of area we had marked. Also watching for signals for longer term trend reversal possibilities.
Image capture below from oil trade chat room shows 1 min crude oil model trend and 5 min chart with oil trade trending in to time cycle peak as alerted.
Image below from oil trading room alerting that price reversal strong structure expect possible trend reversal and possible price targets. The first image is the 30 minute EPIC algorithm chart model showing a strong bounce off the bottom area of the quadrant (the alerted price reversal area).
Strong signal the trend on wider time frame is in reversal mode with action seen in this quad today really clean
And because the bounce is so strong and structured properly in the quad that traders could start possibly looking at larger time frame charting for a possible trend reversal and possible price targets in that scenario.
maybe one quad more down but that would be it if so imo
60.41 would be trend reversal target, trading 51.91, 850 ticks ish
sorry its 59.22
Image showing oil trade room signals on 1 minute chart for confirmation of intra day trend from HFT trade action. Normally we would explain or alert this as it was happening live, however, in today’s scenario I was doing double duty coding so I was sure to show our traders where / how they could confirm that the intra-day trend (for in future trading strategy) was still in play.
After two hits to the trend then the HFT programs set their confirmation pivot and continue trend. This confirms that a trade can continue looking in to the trend for the day, the price targets for day high and time cycle peak for the day.
this is where the HFTs hammered down today, after two hits to 1 min channel support and hit to 1 min range they hammered down
Two chart images below of crude oil trade from trading room comparing last week trade action and this week in 30 Minute EPIC model. This week the trade is much more structured confirming signals that I will include in Part 2 of this report.
Last weeks quad action
This week quad action
The final two images below show that price did in fact spike in to the time cycle peak for 2:15 PM and did reverse in this area of oil trade for a short opportunity as we had alerted much earlier in the day.
peaking in to time cycle intra
Below is the raw oil trading room video feed, if you are learning to trade oil you can correlate the time stamp you see on the images above to the time stamp on the video so you can scroll through the video to specifically what I was saying in the trading room during each alert period. The video below is only a raw feed and I am not broadcasting on mic all day – only when there are alerts and or trades in play (this is why I mention the time stamps). I only include the video because newer students of trade can utilize the live video (and associated comments and charting) to learn, but it is not packaged in short form so you have to dig a bit.
If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.
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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Trading, Trading Room, Strategy, Signals, Reversals, Trend, Time of Day, Time Cycles, Channels, Trims, Adds, Stop Orders.
A New Global Market Time Cycle is Upon Us, Below is Part One Of The Report: Trade Signals For My AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) Swing Trade Strategy.
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is a portfolio protection trade. Increased market volatility becomes more and more likely as we crest the June 10, 2019 global market time cycle peak and over the next six years (global time cycle report to follow).
Hedging a portfolio with low to negative beta trades is one trading strategy we will be employ in to and during this large time cycle.
First, a review of some conventional Anglo Gold charting and then in the Part 2 Premium Member Report we will look closer at algorithmic structured charting, Fibonacci levels, baseline support target price prior to entering trade and time cycles for timely entries to the long and short side of the trade strategy. In Part 2 I will also provide links to all charting.
About AngloGold Ashanti (AU).
AngloGold Ashanti is the third-largest gold mining company in the world, measured by production. Company website https://www.anglogoldashanti.com/.
AngloGold Ashanti Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AngloGold_Ashanti.
Market Watch: AngloGold Ashanti swings to profit- Published: Feb 19, 2019 1:29 a.m. ET https://www.marketwatch.com/story/anglogold-ashanti-swings-to-profit-2019-02-19.
Four Ways to Time a Swing Trade Entry in AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) $AU #swingtrading
- Stochastic RSI. The blue arrow on the chart below shows the stochastic RSI, ideally you want to long this trade when it is first curling up not near the top. However, it can ride the top for some time, so this is more difficult. We have a baseline support price (above current price) we want to see before entering the trade (see Part 2 of this report).
- MACD. The MACD on a daily or weekly time frame (depending on how active you want to be in the trade) is one of the most successful methods to time swing trades (or trend / directional trajectory trading). The MACD is currently trending up and has lots of room to run.
- The 200 MA is also a great signal for trading. Price consolidated above the 200 MA (pink arrow on chart below) on the daily and price has since started to trade higher – in gap mode with recent market uncertainty.
- Squeeze Momentum Indicator – a proprietary indicator from Trading View I personally use in most swing trades, when green I go, only when it’s green (unless some other significant signals are present).
See this related article: Low Beta Stocks To Buy As Market Volatility Increases https://finance.yahoo.com/news/low-beta-stocks-buy-market-221910967.html?.tsrc=rss
Price Targets And Sizing for a Long Position in AngloGold Ashanti Trade
Limiting downside exposure is key in trading (risk management). Ideally you want to time your entry with an initial position and add to the position through the first third (or so) of the trade and trim your position in the last third (or so) of the trading range.
Price targets are difficult and limiting (unless you are using in depth algorithmic chart models with clear time cycles), but I will do my best below to give you some idea. But first be sure you set a minimum low side price or have an indicator as an absolute sell indication if the long trade does not work for you (for example, you could say that if the MACD on the daily turns down you will close the trade).
Keeping it simple, you could target the four areas of the chart per below (blue lines). The first fills the historical gap (the most obvious) and the three other a sequential (derived from Fibonacci and price) as key areas that are likely to find over supply in your upside trade.
The four areas (price targets) are also below the 50% range of historical pricing. This leaves you with additional opportunity for returns above the 50% range should this trade timing be spot on (or even near spot on).
The other general way to time your price targets is to trim your trade position at previous highs on the chart or ebb and flow your positioning between Fibonacci levels.
For my personal trade strategy, this is a portfolio positioning long side trade that could last well in to 2025 and beyond. Above the 50% region of historical price you could hold a small amount as a bonus.
Timing Your Trade.
AngloGold closed trade on Friday up 7.26% on the day trading 13.29. Given the rise in price late last week I would encourage you in your trading strategy to time your entry on a pull back, however, a pull back in price may not occur any time soon (considering the current market turmoil). And finally I would note that the June 10, 2019 time cycle peak could see either a run up in equity markets or down on the other side, so you may want to wait a few weeks (more on global time cycle expectations in global markets in premium reports to follow).
Part Two of the AngloGold trading strategy available click here (premium).
For More Study:
Visit our website blog link specific to swing trading and scroll down to posts that have been historically unlocked to the public. You will have to scroll down and scroll to historical pages.
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Article Topics; AngloGold, Ashanti, AU, Swing Trading, Trading Strategy, Time Cycles, Price Targets
Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Tuesday January 22, 2019.
In this premarket trading edition: Earnings, Time Cycles, TSLA, EBAY, NVCN, UQM, TGTX, Oil, SPY, VIX, BTC, Gold, Silver, DXY and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events / Platform Development / Team Work in Progress:
- Jan 22 – Per email sent to members in premarket.
- Main Trading Room
- Jan 22 – Per email sent to members in premarket.
- Development Team Work in Progress:
- Jan 6 – Members please review Lead Trader 2019 Trading Guidance Report (Time Cycles) & Trading Platform Updates
Premarket Reporting: Per lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day – they are a way for our team to communicate with our member clients and update market conditions when time allows).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) June 30, 2017
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
Blog / Video / Social Posts / Learn to Trade:
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) November 6, 2017
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) July 23, 2017
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) July 23, 2017
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
Jan 10 – DO NOT MISS THIS POST / VIDEO: How I Day Trade Crude Oil: 5 Trades 5 Wins 1.5 Hours 90 Ticks | Trading Room Video | Oil Trade Alerts
Jan 8 – A number of trading strategy posts were sent to members recently that are not listed here. Please review blog list – ask Jen for passwords if you require them.
Dec 11 – Current Trades Reviewed: Oil, SPY, VIX, NatGas, Time Cycles, Gold, Silver, DXY… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mWMFTprLqQ
Recent Educational Articles / Videos:
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Trading Plan / Watch Lists. Morning Momentum / Gaps / News / PR / IPO / SEC Filings / Earnings Stocks on Watch:
Tuesday Jan 22 –
Voice Broadcast Starts at 2:50 on video.
This is mid day review from Friday Jan 18, 2019.
This video explains the upcoming pull back I was looking for in oil and the general markets.
I explain how I will time my Swing entries around that, trading Indices, algorithm models SPY VIX WTI BTC GLD SLV DXY etc.
It’s a much watch for trading this time period.
All the reports will be out over next 48 hours, most before market open tomorrow.
Today I am in trading room for market open, mid day and futures.
Have a great day!
Friday Jan 18 – Mid day review will be looking at Swing Trade entry points. Crude oil has been a great week, don’t miss the post from last night – important details for daytrading crude oil. Same guidance per below from recent.
Markets as of 8:07 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 96.32, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 53.21, Gold $GLD trading 1282.04, Silver $SLV trading 15.26, $SPY 264.96 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 3548.00, $VIX 18.5 and NatGas 3.25.
Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch:
$TSLA (+1.0% pre) Tesla is reportedly in talks with China’s Lishen over Shanghai battery contract – CNBC.
$EBAY (+12.3% pre) Elliott Sends Letter to Board of Directors of eBay; Seeks Separation of StubHub and Classifieds.
$NVCN up 55% at $1.27 – Neovasc announces dismissal of claim brought by Edwards Lifesciences.
$UQM (+45.1% pre) UQM Technologies Signs Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by Danfoss – SI.
$TGTX – TG Therapeutics up 11% on receiving Breakthrough Therapy Designation for umbralisib.
$AAPL WOES SHOULD BENEFIT TELECOMS $TMUS $T $VZ – MACQUARIE.
24 Stocks Moving In Tuesday’s Pre-Market Session http://benzinga.com/z/13015207 $MDWD $APHA $EDU $AABA $URI $LULU $AUPH $TI $UBS $GPS
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Johnson & Johnson, Nike, FedEx & more –
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Johnson & Johnson, Nike, FedEx & more – https://t.co/lTQqzOutW6
— Compound Trading (@CompoundTrading) January 22, 2019
PG&E secures $5.5 billion in DIP financing to fund operations through bankruptcy https://on.mktw.net/2FR7Qsg
ARCONIC TO NO LONGER PURSUE SALE OF THE COMPANY.
$NVCN just out: Neovasc Announces Dismissal of Claim brought by Edwards Lifesciences.
$LCI Lannett (LCI) Announces Distribution Agreement For Trientine Hydrochloride Capsules.
$TSLA: NEEDHAM CUTS MODEL 3 DELIVERIES ESTIMATES BY 15,000 IN 2019 TO 243,000.
UBS Tumbles On “Very Poor” Results As Clients Pull $13 Billion.
Recent SEC Filings / Insiders:
Recent IPO’s, Private Placements, Offerings, Mergers:
$TOPS Announces Completion of Senior Secured Post-Delivery Financing for M/T Eco California.
Tilray to buy Natura Naturals for about $26.3 billion in cash and stock.
$CHFS – CHF Solutions files for equity offering.
Travelers beats earnings estimates despite higher catastrophe losses.
Halliburton tops profit and revenue expectations, shares slip.
Johnson & Johnson tops estimates for fourth quarter.
Stanley Black & Decker shares fall nearly 7% after weak 2019 guidance.
#earnings for the week
$JNJ $IBM $HAL $INTC $F $AAL $PG $STLD $ATI $SWK $SBUX $ABT $TRV $PGR $PLD $UTX $FITB $LUV $BMY $CMCSA $UBSH $ABBV $LRCX $ISRG $KMB $MBWM $URI $EDU $AMTD $JBLU $FCX $WDC $GATX $FBC $ONB $PEBO $XLNX $FNB $OFG $UBS $MKC $ASML $UNP
#earnings for the week$JNJ $IBM $HAL $INTC $F $AAL $PG $STLD $ATI $SWK $SBUX $ABT $TRV $PGR $PLD $UTX $FITB $LUV $BMY $CMCSA $UBSH $ABBV $LRCX $ISRG $KMB $MBWM $URI $EDU $AMTD $JBLU $FCX $WDC $GATX $FBC $ONB $PEBO $XLNX $FNB $OFG $UBS $MKC $ASML $UNPhttps://t.co/lObOE0dgsr pic.twitter.com/ROwchUMNvx
— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) January 19, 2019
$AAPL $NFLX $FB $BAC $C $JPM $GE $UNH $BA $DAL $CLF $T $GS $WFC $PYPL $GOOGL $INTC $F $TWTR $MA $V $JNJ $SLB $AA $MS $BLK $AXP $ATVI $ISRG $VZ $XOM $LRCX $PG $GM $CELG $MCD $FAST $SNV $PNC $ABBV $ABT $NOK $INFO $BMY $HAL #swingtrading
#earnings season $AAPL $NFLX $FB $BAC $C $JPM $GE $UNH $BA $DAL $CLF $T $GS $WFC $PYPL $GOOGL $INTC $F $TWTR $MA $V $JNJ $SLB $AA $MS $BLK $AXP $ATVI $ISRG $VZ $XOM $LRCX $PG $GM $CELG $MCD $FAST $SNV $PNC $ABBV $ABT $NOK $INFO $BMY $HAL #swingtradinghttps://t.co/4Zv7Jukrqo
— Swing Trading (@swingtrading_ct) January 12, 2019
A look at Jan #earnings calendar.
$NFLX $BAC $BA $BBBY $KBH $SGH $STZ $MA $JPM $C $GS $JNJ $UNH $WFC $AA $LRCX $CJPRY $SLB $ABT $LEN $UNF $AKS $BMY $LW $VLO $RPM $AXP $SMPL $SNX $MSM $WYI $CMC $HELE $FAST $PHM $CSX $INFO $CALM $LNN
Trade Set-ups, Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Open and Closed Trades:
Refer to date at top left of each chart (charts can be carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded decision to decision process – when trade set-up fails cut position fast. Leg in to winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide a framework to trade (chart structure enables a trader to set stops where a trade has failed or leg in to winners and trim winners). Purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of a trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy (which should be harnessed in your rules based process).
Crude oil perfect hit to mid quad on daily algorithmic model and backed off FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #CrudeOil #Chart
4 micro trades 4 wins 39 ticks time for a break. 2019 winning streak still in play. #oil #Trading $CL_F $WTI $USO #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) January 21, 2019
Crude oil trading alerts in to open today #crude #oil #trade #alerts #OOTT $CL_F $WTI $USO
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) January 18, 2019
Oil Trading Alerts Yesterday – Man vs. Machine, Both Winning.
Overnight futures crude oil trading alert Selling 51.07 will advise #Oil #Trading #Alerts $CL_F $US FX USOIL WTI
Overnight futures crude oil trading alert Covering 50.74 #Oil #Trading #Alerts $CL_F $US FX USOIL WTI
Screen shots from the Discord private server oil chat room (guidance and alerts I was providing members in chat room).
Oil trade since late Dec time cycle peak I was on about. $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #timecycles #oil #OOTT
When @EPICtheAlgo helps you win $CL_F $USOIL $USO $WTI #oil #trade #alerts #OOTT
Closed $DGAZ long at 86.79 (NatGas short) from 52.30. Nice trade. #swingtrading #premarket
Gold (Monthly) Structure seems to suggest near term resistance at diagonal FIB TL, yet to be seen. #GOLD $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD $UGLD $DGLD #swingtrading
Last trading session in crude oil trade alerts screen shot. Will be more active now that not sick and Jan 1 near. #oiltradealerts
Chewing around the edges of volatility $VIX $TVIX $UVXY Short #tradealerts #swingtrading
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 13, 2018
I love EPIC FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #alerts #algorithm #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 13, 2018
Machine trading day today FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #premarket #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 11, 2018
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
It’s A “Sea Of Red” As Global Stocks, S&P Futures Tumble
It's A "Sea Of Red" As Global Stocks, S&P Futures Tumble https://t.co/KavAmDyE9N
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 22, 2019
-No end in sight for shutdown
-Chances of second Brexit referendum rise
-Data, earnings due
Leveraged buyout debt is riskier today than during the LBO boom of 2006 & 2007, at least based on debt-to-ebitda ratios. https://www.ft.com/content/49c9df22-19aa-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21 …
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) January 22, 2019
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channel and at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List:
(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List :
(3) Other Watch-List:
(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWT, $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.
(5) Recent Upgrades: $UAA $ICE $PANW $HIW $CABO $FTI $MIDD $BJ $CARS $SNV $NKE $CHU $TGP $BUD $IAG $AUY $FISV $AINV $DRNA
(6) Recent Downgrades: $BMTC $D $GPS $STT $PSEC $X $FTNT $BL $MO $ERJ $HTHT $FHN $PVH $REVG $GLOG $TIF $TOO $IMMU $LXFT $GPS $CRSP $LFC $WB $BTE $HBM
SCHLUMBERGER $SLB: SUSQUEHANNA CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $54 FROM $55
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $BTC (@CryptotheAlgo) $WTI (@), $VIX (@), $SPY (@), $GLD (@), $SLV (@), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index). Our Swing Trading Twitter feed is found here: https://twitter.com/swingtrading_ct. Our lead trader Twitter feed is here @curtmelonopoly
Article Topics: Premarket, Stocks, Trading Plan, Trade Alerts, Trading Room, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Earnings, Time Cycles, TSLA, EBAY, NVCN, UQM, TGTX, Oil, SPY, VIX, BTC, Gold, Silver, DXY
Crude Oil Algorithm Trading Chart Report (EPIC) w/ Machine Trading Sunday Jan 13, 2019.
FX: $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $UCO $SCO $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP
Welcome to the oil trading algorithm report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algorithm and I am one of seven primary Algorithmic Chart Models in development at Compound Trading Group (there are over one hundred in total in development at various stages in various markets).
New members to our oil algorithm charting models, oil trade alerts and oil trading room are encouraged to on-board in a way that equips you as an oil trader for consistent profit.
Visit my public Twitter feed EPIC Oil Algorithm Twitter (@EPICtheAlgo) and review tweets over the last few months, visit our blog and review the recent crude oil trading algorithm blog posts, You Tube channel “how my oil algorithm works”, “how to use my charting”, weekly EIA oil report videos and our website explains how the oil algorithm was developed.
Invaluable are the crude oil trade alerts (available with or without the trading room / weekly report bundle) and the private member crude oil trading chat room on Discord (included in the bundle) and attendance to the live trading room.
The live alerts are important if you are not at your trading screens 24 hours a day and the chat room allows for interactive lead trader oil trade set-ups as each oil trade approaches. All bundle members can access the live oil trading room when active also.
Reviewing important points of reference and engaging the subscription resources will increase your probability of success considerably. This report also includes links to some recent example “how-to” videos.
Oil Trade Coaching – We strongly suggest users of this algorithmic crude oil trading strategy opt for some level of private one-on-one coaching with our lead trader. Our lead trader is maintaining a crude oil trading alert win-rate of over 90% as of Sept 2, 2018 (time-stamped, live alert, recorded).
On our website one-on-one online coaching packages are available (coaching via Skype) or you can request a custom package reflecting the time you wish to invest in learning. To request a custom package suited to your needs email firstname.lastname@example.org or click here for standard private trade coaching packages. Other options for coaching include online webinars, trade coaching bootcamps and private on location (in person) coaching sessions.
Oil Trading Room – How to Use the Oil Algorithm
Oil Trading Room – How to Trade Intra-day with my Algorithmic Oil Charting
Oil Trading Alerts. Live Lead Trader Video Trading w EPIC Oil Algorithm
Recent articles / videos from our blog about how to trade crude oil with our oil trading algorithm (if you are a newer member that needs an unlock code for any of the posts below please email email@example.com):
For the more articles / videos available visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil page here.
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available on our shop page.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is now also in the coding phase for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process, about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on Twitter feed and/or this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an oil algorithmic model in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am presented on (and used on) conventional trade charting as one would normally use.
The goal is to provide oil traders with signals for an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil – first with the reporting format as below, then with machine trading functions and an integrated intelligent assisted traders platform that will provide the user with various settings of automation and personal trade execution.
In the weekly report below you will find simplified levels represented on conventional and algorithmic charting for intra-day (day-trading crude oil), swing trading and investing.
This work (and associated trading) should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on with oil related financial instruments.
Forward questions to firstname.lastname@example.org, private message our lead trader on Twitter or in the private Discord oil trading room.
For further information this link explains how our algorithmic charting is done, this YouTube video explains in summary how my algorithm works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUNyxFoXJp8 this link for more information about our algorithmic stock charting models and what makes them different than most.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE SIGNAL (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED, ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
Oil Algorithm Observations:
Below is a link for the live algorithmic chart of EPIC the Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (Generation 1, Version 5 including black box modeling). The charting is a real-time trading chart represented on FX USOIL WTI published January 13, 2019.
Click on share button (bottom right beside flag) and when that screen opens click on “make it mine” to view real-time, make edits etc:
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Intra-day crude oil trade. Jan 12 1154 PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Note: The holiday anomalies in the chart model are near totally worked through, some remain, but not significant enough to detail.
January 13, 2019
Generation 1 Model Oil Trading Signals
The first most predictable trade are the resistance and support cluster areas formed by long term chart trend lines (see charts that have trend-lines represented in red as made available below near bottom of this report – conventional charting trend-lines).
The second most predictable trade (wide trading range primary resistance and support that become predictable buy and sell triggers). Current algorithmic model wide trading range resistance (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 54.45 in the current trading range. Current algorithmic model wide trading range support (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 50.80 in the current trading range – these areas are general range support and resistance areas (our algorithm uses a .15 – .20 cent buffer on either side for these trades – if that is exceeded then trading price is likely to use the line as a pivot until a directional trending trade is established).
Trading between the resistance / support horizontal grey lines is extremely profitable risk – reward if one is disciplined to the patience required and follows the trend of trade.
More recently (as of September 2018) our back-testing has shown that the support and resistance areas noted are used in trade as a decision pivot – in other words, the price tends to pivot around these decision points on the chart and coil over a period of time and then spring out of the coil in an upward or downward trend.
The lower trading range is 47.14 – 50.79 and upper trading range 54.46 – 58.07.
Third most predictable trade (support and resistance of uptrend or down trend channels). On the chart an upward trending trade channel is presented and a downward option (channel support and resistance / trading range is represented as diagonal dotted orange lines and purple arrows – as made available, assist in displaying directional trade decision areas).
Fourth most predictable trade (support and resistance of 30 min quadrants). The diagonal lines make up quadrants (in this instance on a 30 min chart) and are represented as orange diagonal lines that make up geometric diamond shapes. These lines also assist in intra-day trade.
Fifth most predictable trade (support and resistance of most applicable Fibonacci) the Fib support and resistance lines are the horizontal lines in various colors with the exception of purple and yellow (see below). These horizontal lines become support and resistance for intra-day trade.
Sixth most predictable trade (support and resistance of historical support and resistance) Natural / historical support and resistance lines shown in purple or yellow – they represent historical support and resistance. The strongest of the historical support and resistance lines are shown in yellow horizontal and are typically accompanied by a yellow arrow marker.
Seventh most predictable trade signal we use are the time and price targets (red circles). When trade is in a significant uptrend or downtrend the targets become very precise and move up the indicator priority list quick.
Tues, Wed and Fri targets are most predictable in extended multi week up-trends or down-trends.
The Eighth most predictable trade is intra-day. You will notice on some of the charting geometric shapes in green on some of my charting (at times). They are charted live in the trading room and at times the lead trader will highlight these areas intra with white outlines (typically geometric shapes such as diamonds or triangles).
Intra-day Trading Bias
Intra day bias is up side trade as the MACD is turned up on the daily chart and this indicator is usually a leading indicator for oil trade on this time-frame. However, after the recent run up in price (since Christmas) and the pressure that came in to oil trade last week it is highly probable pressure continues in to this coming trading week.
Wide Trading Range – Buy and Sell Triggers for Swing Trading Crude Oil:
Swing trading bias / forward guidance as of Jan 13 12:01 AM EST is indecisive for the reasons noted above.
Review the charting and stay on top of the structures that play out in the different time frames. It has everything to do with the time frame you are trading.
Trade the ranges noted above between the thick grey lines (grey arrows) for the most predictable swing trades between 47.14 – 50.79, 50.80 – 54.44, 54.45 – 58.06, 58.07 to 61.69, 61.70 to 65.31, 65.32 to 68.92, 68.93 to 72.54, 72.55 to 76.14 and 76.15 to 79.74. This is a highly profitable risk-reward way to trade oil if you can be patient to trigger at only the break of the wide range charting areas and are disciplined to cut a losing trade that does not prove in your anticipated trend.
Or trade the range between the channel diagonal lines at support and resistance in up or down channel (orange dotted diagonals).
Significantly more advanced trading rules will be introduced over the coming weeks with the newer Machine Trading software development in full swing now.
Channel Trading Scenarios for this Week on the Model Shown on Algorithmic Model:
Follow the red circle targets up or down per the charts below.
THIS WEEK is more unclear than most in that channel trade could occur parallel to the channels noted on the charts below.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Gen 1 and Gen 2 Algorithmic Oil Trading Machine Driven Model Development.
Per recent report example:
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Hidden pivot locations. Oct 25 831 PM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Per recent example;
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen2.V2 (EPIC). Machine trading intra-day. Sept 17 552 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
This is an alternate machine trading model currently in development.
Per recent example;
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen2.V1 (EPIC). Machine trading intra-day. Sept 11 1246 AM FX $USOIL $WTI $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Algorithm #OOTT
Generation 1 Day-Trading Crude Oil 1 Minute Chart Signals
The trading box on the 1 min daytrading charting is key. Daytrading updates are often shared in the Discord Oil Chart Room.
Per recent example:
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time.
Crude Oil Swing Trade Charting.
Monthly Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
On the widest time-frame this monthly crude oil chart seems to hold support and resistance zones at diagonal Fibonacci (outside quad) trend lines and horizontal Fibonacci (mid quad) lines. The timing cycle vertical lines (green dotted) seem to be in play especially when you fractal the time frames down.
Trade is currently testing upside of 50 MA on monthly chart.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Lead Trader trading note: If I had this chart in recent trade I would have added to my DWT short when trade touched the lower TL line and trading box support area. I really like this monthly structured charting.
If you are swing trading crude oil I see no reason not to follow the support and resistance areas of this chart for swing trading using appropriate sizing flow at each decision.
Weekly Crude Oil Chart(s):
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
May 13, 2018 chart post with important notes:
Oil retrace probability high, historically #timecycle Notes.
Previous Crude Oil Time Cycle Special Report for Context:
Dating back to 2002, 12 of 13 major time cycles on weekly oil chart have seen trend reversal to some extent or another #OILChart
Crude Oil Weekly Trend Line Chart – Structured support bounce last two weeks. Jan 13 1110 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trade #charting
Crude Oil Weekly Trend Line Charting – very busy chart Jan 13 958 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trade #charting
Per recent for perspective:
Crude Oil. Weekly trend-line chart. Dec 17 403 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OIL #trading
Daily Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Daily Chart MACD still up with price on support of trading box with 50 MA test above Jan 13 1057 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Lots going on with this daily oil charting. Price bounced near that large trend line down-trending from previous time cycle (dotted gray) and near bottom of trading quad. Now testing 50 MA with reconfirmation of MACD. Bullish with an overhead test is the bottom line.
Crude Oil Daily Symmetry Chart Jan 13 1127 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #crude #Oil #Symmetry
Per recent for perspective:
Crude Oil Daily Symmetry Chart Suggests 41 area possible. Dec 17 424 AM FX USOIL WTI CL_F
240 Minute Crude Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil 2490 Min Test Chart Jan 13 1132 AM FX USOIL WTI CL_F $USO #algorithm #crude #oil
30 Minute Crude Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil 30 Min Simple Algorithmic Chart Model Nov 19 434 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points (currently represented in red below on our conventional charting).
Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable.Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Recent Live Crude Oil Trade Alerts (sample signals):
See recent special oil reports, private alert Twitter feed and/or Discord private member oil chat room for many more examples.
Jan 13 – Recent trade alerts will be updated soon in more detail.
Recent Oil Algorithm Price Target Hits:
Jan 13 – Price Target Reporting will be updated soon.
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants (white dotted lines):
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at email@example.com – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States
Article topics: EPIC, Crude, Oil, Algorithm, Trade, Alerts, Trading Room, Chat, Charts, Signals, Time Cycles, $USOIL, $WTI, $USO, $CL_F