Welcome to the Compound Trading Group Private Client Series: Crude Oil Trading Strategies With The Highest Returns.

Introduction:

This document series will cover the best oil trading strategies we have garnered in our intensive research and application in real world trading (both mechanical human executed day trading and machine driven trading).

It will encompass what I have learned in my thirty year personal journey as a trader as well as the intensive deep research we have done at Compound Trading Group over the last two and a half years. The latter being more in depth than my own personal thirty year trading journey.

But first, bear with me in this introductory document as I provide important perspective for those new to our trading group, those to come in the future and of course for clients and stakeholders that have been with us for some time.

I will then share in great detail much of the best oil trading strategies we know.

The Release Process of Our Data.

This (the Crude Oil Trading Strategies with the Highest Returns Document Series) will be released in parts as data is consolidated and documented over the next month prior to our going private at the end of April 2019. “Going Private” meaning that just anyone off the street will not gain access to our crude oil trading data services simply because they paid and subscribed (more on that later). “Consolidated” because we have lived in a petri dish of oil trading data discovery for the last 2.5 years, and let me tell you, there is a need for consolidation of the data. “To be released in parts” because we have to author the series, and fast (before the end of April) – yes, this is a grass roots, organic, transparent upstart.

What Will be Made Public and What Will Remain Private. Our Edge.

Some of the documents in this trade knowledge consolidation series (or portions thereof) will be made public for various reasons, but most key data will not be made public.

Not all we have learned about the nature of crude oil trade will be released to even our key commercial clientele. Some knowledge must remain proprietary to our clients and some other proprietary for the benefit of our clients. In other words, we have an interest in maintaining a certain trading edge to our benefit and on behalf of our clients.

It is an interesting balance. For example, another goal within this series is to release enough data (or better described as the most pertinent data) needed for our client traders that are manually executing trades to use as the most actionable strategies for trading crude oil day to day (intraday crude oil trade and swing trading).

Another noted benefit of this series is that our stakeholders and commercial clients will gain an understanding of our growth processes (the discovery processes) and our rules based trading systems. This will facilitate understanding and provide for better communication with all involved.

Below I summarize our journey to date and then the first article in this series will be released before our oil trading webinar tomorrow. We expect new document posts in this series to be delivered to our clients at a rate on average of about one every two days between now and end of April, 2019.

An Important Time for our Oil Traders, Trading Team / Staff Developers, Client / Members and Stakeholders of Compound Trading Group.

Why? As I pointed out, tomorrow is our first (and very important) Oil Trading Webinar (an important focused opportunity to share in detail the best oil trading strategies we have learned), we recently started providing oil trade data to the SOVORON machine trading service, we are taking our oil trading alert / subscription service private soon and most importantly we recently finished our two and a half year systematic exploration of all crude oil technical trading methods we had set out to test, trade, code and re-test over and over again.

In other words, we are at an inflection in our growth process – at certain junctures in growth you have to trim off what doesn’t work and build roots in what does.

We are going private to take our current clients with us and cease spending time with on-boarding “new” clients. Not because we don’t want new clients, we simply don’t have the time for new clients and I want more time with our core clients.

But every business wants new clients! Not really – not the typical retail type client. We’re best suited to commercial trading groups. We want partners in our journey, traders in a core group, friends, comrades, those that are on a quest to be better and do better – be the best they can be in the markets…. those type of people and up and coming enterprises… but not your average retail trader that isn’t serious about a life long journey in the markets. Those folks are better managed by other groups.

And hey, if we’re as good as we think we are (or should be by now) then we should just be able to trade it up without a subscription service right? Exactly. One way to look at it.

We’re just built for a different type of client. Our commercial trading group clients, retail traders that are very serious and other specialized type of clients are our thing.

Truth be told, we are a privately financed operation with significant overhead (team staff etc to develop our machine trading related platforms) so we need to focus on profit, profit derived from our trading and in turn providing that data to commercial groups that also aspire to a greater than typical trading profit.

And to be perfectly frank, we want to build something exceptional, lasting and moderately revolutionary. Our goal is to build the best trading group in the markets and provide our success knowledge to others that are as serious as we are.

So we want to complete our development process in crude oil trade and soon get on to our swing trading platform (next) and the other algorithmic trading models such as SPY, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, VIX, DXY and more.

Information Released to Date and Going Forward.

I know over time I / we have talked about moving toward solidifying / reconciling all we have discovered thus far as it relates to the historical nature of oil trade, but to be honest we didn’t know how far that journey of discovery would go so releasing specific data (the rule-set) was difficult – we didn’t know how deep the rabbit hole was.

We still haven’t rolled every rock, we know there are more but we don’t have time, so we have prioritized the rocks to roll over and we did that as publicly and transparently as we knew how. Although more recently I have to admit there are some things we just haven’t shared (special nuggets of data that obviously will provide a significant proprietary edge for us and our stake-holders / clients at various levels).

The point being, we have released some articles and we have promised more. This is the start of the more.

You can find previously released oil trading strategy articles here.

What We Set Out To Do and What We Plan Next. The Big.

In our journey we prioritized structured trading as it applies to thirteen time frames on conventional charting (one minute trading through to monthly time frames) and how various time cycles, order flow, liquidity, events and such determine crude oil trade within the specific structured time-frames.

I would think as a result of this deep dive in to the data that we are now one the worlds most knowledgeable groups as it applies to the trading structure of crude oil. Not just because of the data historically, but the data as it relates to the living moment to moment tick by tick trade of crude oil.

Looking at historical data is one thing, but relating that to real-time trade (by the tick living in the trade), applying that to real world trade and coding it is a completely different level of data analysis and trade platform development.

Our next is to be one the worlds most profitable oil trading groups and most sought after data providers. That is our goal.

How We Intend to Accomplish Our Goal. The World’s Best Oil Trade ROI.

As I noted above, “at certain junctures in growth you have to trim off what doesn’t work and build roots in what does.”

The only way to do that is to drill down and focus on (only trade) what we now know about how crude oil trades – the natural structure of oil trade. Sure there are anomalies on every time frame, but every financial instrument has a natural trading structure (the DNA of the instrument).

You can see this (what doesn’t work) in our own oil trading returns and alerts – in January we traded oil accounts up over 60% then in February 30% and in March some accounts are red and some green (referring to specifically only what we publicly alerted). The worst of our accounts are down about 3% in March thus far.

This example is a reflection of us in a real life setting executing real-time trades and applying that which we have learned (the rabbit hole of historical data), how to trade the data, can it be coded and executed like the data suggests? What works best? Why? And more.

Quite literally we grew our monthly returns month over month the last few years until we peaked in January and then our returns started to come off on a month over month basis. This is no random occurrence.

How does that happen?

As we got further and further down the rabbit hole we went to lower and lower time frames of trade, we learned more and more. We found order flow details, structural trade details and time cycle events that most would not know about. We found all kinds of details that we had no idea were there.

But what makes sense on paper (what mathematically works based on historical back testing) and what can be applied in real-life practice are two different things as you get down the rabbit hole (lower time frames), in other words in High Frequency Trading (HFT).

What makes sense on paper (what mathematically works based on historical back testing) and what can be applied in real-life practice are two different things

The easiest way to visualize this is to imagine it all (the financial instruments in markets on various time frames) as structures. We have learned that there are structures of trade (charting, geometric patterns and such), there are structures of liquidity and various other structures that assist in understanding the nature of crude oil trade.

This video will give you some insight “The mathematician who cracked Wall Street | Jim Simons” as will these rudimentary oil trading room videos from our day to day trade Oil Trading Room – How to Use EPIC the Oil Algorithm Model Chart and Oil Trading Room – How to trade intra day w EPIC the Algo Charting.

What Does Not Work.

Specifically and more recently, we have found what doesn’t work for us, it may work for others but it definitely does not work for us.

What is that? High frequency machine trade (HFT) on the lowest time frames. I am referring to high frequency machine trading on the one minute, half minute and quarter minute time frames – yes, we went that far down the rabbit hole.

How and why did we chase oil trade down to the lowest time frames?

Why? To gain competitive advantage we specifically chased liquidity in oil markets that move the price of oil. We wanted to know when specific entities are in trade so we can choose to be with them or not.

We not only want the structure of trade on all time-frames, we don’t only want the time cycles of trade on all chart time frames, we want to know WHO IS AFFECTING THE PRICE OF OIL and how we gain advantage with that. This is our IDENT program. We want the structure of trade, the timing of trade and what entities are trading.

How? We chased the order flow, the order book, the liquidity in the oil trade in markets using every data provider we could find. We chased the order flow tick by tick and back tested the order flow under the exact same methods we back test charting or trading structures. On every time frame sixty months back tick by tick and then bringing all that data back up to real-time and testing it tick by tick for months.

The structure or pattern of liquidity provides an ID.

You can’t imagine the affect that process has on your mind haha.

Anyway, we discovered that the high frequency machine trading specifically on the lowest time frames with what we refer to as the micro players works on paper (the back tested math works) BUT IT DOES NOT WORK IN PRACTICE.

This is why some of our account P/Ls are moderately red and some moderately green in March of 2019. This is how we went from over 60% returns per month in January to near 0% in March.

And we still believe our goal is 100% + per month (50% being minimum on average). Yes, this is true. In fact, our software techs spoke of 500%, but that was only possible in HFT as it related to what I describe above as what works on paper but does not work in practice.

Why Does High Frequency Machine Crude Oil Trading on the Lowest Time Frames Not Work?

High frequency machine trade on the lowest time frames in crude oil does not return nearly as well as the return that structured larger time frame machine (or even mechanically execute human trade) can provide.

Our optimum returns are in the thirty minute structure referencing the one minute time frame for specific entries and exits taking in account the key resistance and support of the various other time frames.

I can’t reveal everything because we are still going to uncover some rocks to confirm our conclusions, we still hold some hope that some day we will crack the code to successful HFT on lower time frames, but we don’t have much hope. We only have hope in theory because of the potential returns (as back tested on paper) but in practice we don’t see it being possible.

Our interest is specifically in being the best at executing the highest probability oil trades within well defined historically back tested structures (oil trading strategies) that have a clear risk reward control mechanism with the highest ROI possible in that frame work. 

Anyway, here are some reasons why HFT on the lowest time frames does not work in practice;

  1. Risk – Reward Controls. The range of trade that the micro entities are competing in are 5 – 10 ticks. A 5 – 10 tick range is not bad on paper if you can win 80% and control risk, but when you factor in what actually occurs in practice with liquidity, order execution fills, stops, volatility within that specific range at specific timing you then get a poor result. There are various methods to “game” the system such as faster computers, location of computers to exchanges, faster connections and such, but we aren’t interested in competing in that space. Our interest is specifically in being the best at executing the highest probability oil trades within well defined historically back tested structures (oil trading strategies) that have a clear risk reward control mechanism with the highest ROI possible in that frame work.
  2. Range. As I said above, a 5 – 10 cent trading range in oil is okay, but range isn’t everything. What you see on your screen (or what your computer software sees) is not necessarily what your order fill will see.
  3. Stops. Stops have to be used to limit risk. We use sophisticated dynamic stops that work extremely well if we are not trading in the lowest time frames with the micro HF competitors. They are competing in a ranges that sees volatility flash 5 – 10 ticks in a micro second. It’s a race to execution by the fast machines with the fastest internet connections etc. This is not an ideal environment for stops that are vital to protecting equity.
  4. Order Fills. Order fills (given the above control issues) are not realistic to your expected result because trading ranges on the lowest time frames change in a blink of an eye, which isn’t a big deal until you are competing machine to machine in a micro environment. Order fill control is not reality in this realm. Not in the way we expect anyway. We can achieve a much higher control in an exceptional ROI environment in a 30 minute structured time frame.
  5. Liquidity. Liquidity on the tightest time frames changes fast, too fast for our risk threshold. This is an issue for us on many levels.

So in short, what happened with our development the last month or so is that we went after the pure math (and not structured set-ups and strategies) as it related to tight time frames and high frequency because it made sense on paper. On paper if the trades executed as the back tested math revealed then returns of up to 500% per month would be possible. But in practice trade set-ups with defined structured set-ups that have controlled down side with 5 or even 10 to 1 risk reward work much better in practice. This is a much better oil trading strategy for machine trading and for mechanically executed human oil trade.

I won’t go in to every detail as I said but HFT on the lowest time frames is ridden with hidden problems and you can’t know until you develop it, code it and put it in to practice, which we did. It is far too difficult to control outcome and we want highly controlled trading environments only. For us, HFT on low time frames is not the best ROI by far.

So What Oil Trading Strategies Are The Best That Provide Highest Return and Lowest Risk?

In our development process we identified the 20 – 40 largest machine liquidity entities in oil trade (we call the primaries) and 200 or so secondaries and a host of what we refer to as micro machine trading entities (HFTs).

Our highest predictable return is trading crude oil with the secondaries and taking in to consideration the primaries. The primaries are not using our methodologies of trade and as such we are still working on this specific area. The micros are competing for small returns many times a day but this is ridden with all kinds of problems as described above.

Our best tested (real world test) results have been with the broad market liquidity (the secondaries and obviously broad market liquidity) and this is traded primarily on the thirty minute time frame. The EPIC Oil Algorithm Model specifically is what I am referring to. This model provides a working structure for mechanically executed trades and our machine trading.

Our software uses the one minute model structure for specific entry, exit and sizing on the lowest time frames but is using the 30 minute model as the basis or structure of trade. This allows for sizing progression in the trade as it proves out. More specifically it allows for a test size and then progressive sizing and releasing of size through the structured trade.

This is critical to return and defined minimal risk.

And lastly, all the other time frames (up to the monthly charting structure) are considered in an order of probability for support and resistance decisions.

This works, it provided for over 60% account build / returns in January and we expect that to increase to 100% if our team is right. We believe that as we further perfect this process that 100% or more is attainable and 50% is our minimum bar at this point. This is yet to be seen and we start Sunday night in futures trade specifically to this process.

Starting Sunday night our software will only trade the highest probability crude oil trading set-ups / strategies as it relates to the above noted 30 minute model referencing the one minute model for specific entry, exit and sizing points.

The frequency of trade will be 20 – 40 trades per week or about 6 trades per day. 20 – 60 ticks per day at an average of 5/10 sizing 20 days a month. The rate of return math on that scenario assuming a 10 contract account size (100 K account approximately) is as follows;

Average trade size = 5 contracts (sizing from 1 to 10 progressive).

Average winning range per day = 40 ticks (on 6 trades) at 80% win side. On surface this looks like only 7 – 10 ticks or so per trade, but this is actually the 7 – 10 tick core (or meat of the trade) that averages 5 contract size, the actual average trade range is larger.

Average daily wins = 2000.00 per day x 20 days per month.

Average monthly gain = 40%+ (we assume 50%+)

Remember, this is average, some days it will be none and some days 200 ticks. Structured trading is boring until it isn’t. Then it is anything but.

This methodology of oil trade provides for the highest probability to being on the win side of the trade (tested in practice), with the highest ROI because the trades are 10 – 100 ticks in range, with controlled stops (larger range structure provides for more predictable stops), with manageable order fills because a 3 – 6 tick divergence is not an issue when you are looking for an average 30 tick move and more.

Note: above I note a 40 tick per day average win rate and yet that we are looking for a 30 tick move in each trade, you have to consider that the trade sizing is from 1 to 10 and progressive on either side of the move.

Example Trade Sizing Progressively.

Below is a simple example, our software in a much more dynamic manner, but the example below provides a frame-work for discussion. The example below is also a real life typical example of a range from the even dollar to the half dollar (60.00 – 60.50) within the key area or core of liquidity and volatility on the day (typical going in to or at regular US market open, events such as EIA, and at key inflection points of intra-day trade).

Trade long 60.00 2 contract size based on structure support, timing, order flow.

Wait for retest of support and progressive order flow and price action.

Long 60.04 4 contract size. Hits next resistance, trade retests next support, price action moves to next leg.

Long 60.14 4 contract size. Hits next resistance.

Trim long 60.24 4 contracts.

Trim long 60.36 4 contracts.

Trim long 60.48 2 contracts.

In the above perfect intra day range trade example you have profit as follows;

2 contracts 24 ticks

2 contracts 20 ticks

2 contracts 32 ticks

2 contracts 22 ticks

2 contracts 34 ticks

Average contract win 35 ticks less volatility in fill slippage (market order) is lets say 30 ticks. That’s an excellent trade and these trade set-ups do occur most days in crude oil, however, not every set up will be executed to the set up because oil trade is not always perfect.

Above is a perfect scenario, below are reasons for the real – world average scenario to be less than a 30 tick winning range.

  • Win Rate – If the win rate is 80% then one in five trades will not work, this has to be factored. Our win rate with the 30 minute structure is over 90% (documented, traded live, alerted, recorded), but lets assume 80% for argument. Lets assume your average stop loss is 12 or so ticks. That is a loss of 12 ticks every 5 trades and adds quick if your win rate is not 80% (hence the importance of only trading the most probable set-ups).
  • Range of Average Trade – Not every trade has the 50 tick range assumed in the example above. A 50 tick move from 60.00 – 60.50 as in the example above does happen most days (in fact we often see 100 ticks or more), but you have to execute on those specific moves to see that.
  • Failed Moves – Many of the trade set-ups will not work according to plan. It usually takes two or three attempts at a move before the market moves price through the whole move.
  • Order Fills – There are many reasons for issues here, especially for manually executed market orders, you can assume 5 ticks per trade series (or more depending on your method).

To successfully trade crude oil intraday to a 2% account gain daily (the example we use above) requires that you catch the moves when they occur, that you trade within the most probable / defined structure and setups. And lets not forget that it also requires that you execute stops when the setup fails (fast).

Understanding the structure of intraday trade on the 30 minute model is key to catching the moves and knowing the most probable size of the move (support and resistance). The one minute model is key to your trade entry, sizing and exit.

Summary

So in short we went all the way down the rabbit hole, we tested every oil trading strategy we could find and we believe we’ve come out the other side with the most predictable, lowest risk, highest ROI oil trading structures available in the markets.

The next article will detail the oil trading strategies that are most predictable with the highest ROI as described above.

If you have any questions please feel free to email us at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com anytime.

To access our services you will find our oil trade alerts are here, oil trading room here (bundled with alerts and newsletters) and oil trade reporting service here.

Thank you.

Curtis, Lead Trader Compound Trading Group

 

 

 

 


Intensive Crude Oil Trade Training Webinar.

Spend a Day With Me March 24, 2019 – I will be hosting a crude oil trading webinar. I will cover everything I know about crude oil trade in a one-time 8 hour special webinar event.

The webinar will cover my strategies for conventional and algorithmic oil trade and charting, intra-day trading, short term swing trading, longer term swing trading, trade sizing, time cycles, key set-ups and much more.

I will explain in detail how I maintain a win rate of better than 90% in crude oil trade (live recorded in our oil trading room and live alerted to our members).

Limited attendance of 25 persons to allow me to take questions and converse as needed to be sure we cover the trading concepts in detail.

Current member clients of Compound Trading Group receive 50% off. Use promo code: member

Early bird registrants prior to March 11, 2019 receive 30% off (cannot be used in conjunction with other offers). Use promo code: early.

To Register for the Crude Oil Trading Webinar Click Here.

The 8 hour special webinar event cost : 499.00.

Attendees receive a free video report of the webinar after we’re done so that you can study the in depth knowledge long in to the future. The video will also be available online at our store (for non attendees).

Can’t attend? The post webinar cost for non-attendees for the video is 799.00 at our online shop. Pre-orders (prior to March 24) receive a 30% discount. Use promo code: earlybird. To pre-order the video click here VIDEO: Everything I Know About Trading Crude Oil | Special Webinar Event Series

For complimentary trade articles, click this link: Crude Oil Trading Academy : Learn to Trade Oil.


Strategies for Crude Oil Futures Trade February 12, 2019. Includes Rule-Set Instructions.

Below is the oil futures trading battle plan for day trading, swing trading intra-day and longer term swing trading.

This report includes a section that breaks out much of the rule-set for the 1 minute model with an actual trade progression as alerted in the oil trading room and on the Twitter alert feed. The report on whole provides key insight in to the rule-set we are using.

If you want to learn how we traded for over 63% gains last month, study this report and any recent reporting and videos closely. Our software techs believe 500% is not out of the question. I know it’s lofty, but when you consider the current win rate (over 90%) and that last months trading gains were only as a result of trading less than 10% of the time you can then begin to appreciate the power of a winning systematic oil trading rule-set.

The EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm Reporting below is an alternate format to the regular format – we will be using alternate formats during a period of establishing simplified trading strategies for our members (the trade rule-set).

Links for the 1 minute model and the 30 minute EPIC model are provided separate of this report to members as they are slightly different for different distribution lists (retail, commercial, institutional variations). If you need either please message us preferably at compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com. 

Oil Trading Strategies Below are in Large Part Based on the EPIC Oil Algorithm Charting Model.

We Weigh Trade Probabilities on all time-frames against the EPIC model. This is important to consider when assessing our trade alerts for your own trading plan.

The EPIC Crude Oil Trading Algorithm Model below is by far the most predictable model we use for trade (30 Minute chart model).

The 30 minute EPIC model provides a general trading structure for the day. Important areas of support and resistance should be considered. It is common for the outside quad walls to be tested on the upside and downside. Long trades at the bottom support and short trades at the top of each quad or channel should be considered. Specific points of trade execution should be considered on lower time frame charting models.

On the EPIC Algorithm model a trade in to top of quad range is probable if price is over mid quad.

Refer to historical EPIC reporting and videos on yYouTube for ways to structure trades in the model.

EPIC, algorithm, crude, oil

On the EPIC Algorithm model a trade in to top of quad range is probable if price is over mid quad.

  • Trading the Range of the Quadrants and Range of the Channels:
    • Respecting the key resistance and support areas of the oil trading model at quadrant walls (orange dotted), channel support and resistance (orange dotted), mid quad horizontal support and resistance (horizontal line that cuts through middle of quad) and the mid channel lines (light gray dotted).
    • We are finding that when oil trade is not in an uptrend or downtrend and is trading sideways around a pivot that trade will often test the mid channel lines (gray dotted) of the model. This causes the predictability of the quadrant support and resistance to be less (trade at quad support and resistance can be “sloppy”). This trade action in the model makes logical sense as a trend is not in play for an up or down channel. Another way to describe it would be trade using half quadrant support and resistance. While trade is in a sideways pattern on the daily your intra-day crude oil trading strategy should reflect this scenario. See examples from trade below:
      • crude, oil, trading, strategy

        “the predictability of the quadrant support and resistance to be less #crude #oil #trading #strategies”

      • crude, oil, trade, mid channel

        “when oil trade is not in an uptrend or downtrend and is trading sideways around a pivot (as it has the last eight or so trading days) that trade will often test #oil #trade”.

  • Trade Size.
    • Sizing should be considered at key support and resistance of the EPIC model structure. The model can be used to determine sizing bias on tighter time frames on one minute below. Sizing can also be a consideration for short term swing trading oil in the model.

Per previous;

Screen capture of trade moving through EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm range Jan 16 – 20. The quadrant walls and mid channel lines are support and resistance.

EPIC, Oil, crude, algorithm, trading, strategy

Screen capture of trade moving through EPIC Crude Oil Algorithm range in trade last week. #crude #oil #trading

Timing Trades Using the One Minute Oil Chart Model.

  • Volume.
    • Wait for volume. Low volume periods have lower predictability in the models. Often early in futures trade and after 2:30 oil settlement daily are commonly low volume periods of trade.
  • Trend.
    • Determine the intra-day direction (trend) of trade. Strong bias should be considered for long or short positioning based on intra-day trend. Upward trend bias to long positions and down trend intra-day bias to short positions.
    • Determine the trend on the daily chart also, some bias should be toward that. Watch the MACD on the daily, although it is a moderately late indicator it does confirm bias / trend.
    • Check important timing for key global market open hours (inflections in intra-day trend can occur there, especially going in to New York regular market open).
  • Support and Resistance.
    • In an uptrend try and execute on support of the range on the one minute trading box (short term pull back) – the opposite is true in a downtrend. Break-up or break-down trades are more risky but can return positive results as long as a trader closes losing positions quickly.
  • Trade Size and Positioning.
    • In a predictable structure sizing intra-day should be maximum at entry and trims at mid trading box and top or bottom of trading box – specific to the 1 minute chart model. Our software for instance will enter with 10 contracts and release size as trade proves. See example below:
      •  Our trader in crude oil trading room providing signals for trade alert that went out to members – screen capture.
        • “M – Machine sell program initiated. Short 52.44. Stop 52.61 or buy program detected. 1 Min model price targets 52.29 52.11 51.88 51.66. Support 51.73 on recent 30 min model in trading room and 52.50 52.38 52.19 51.75 EPIC. Resistance 52.62 52.75 53.04 53.16 53.51 EPIC.”
      • trade, alert, crude, oil, trading room

        Our trader in crude oil trading room providing signals for trade alert that went out to members – screen capture.

    • Position size and trimming to take profits as you go should also reflect key resistance and support on the EPIC algorithm model.
    • Trim positions at mid trading box and top of trading box on the one minute chart model for long positions and the opposite is true in shorting. In a squeeze or sell-off this is more difficult and typically a trader will have to trade the break upside at resistance or downside as support is breached because pull-backs are not as likely in a squeeze.
  • Using Trade Stops.
    • From the example above, you will see the stop was set at 52.61 with allowance for a stop also to be triggered if momentum change was detected. “Stop 52.61 or buy program detected”.
      • From the oil trading room see also this comment “M – there is a directional move component of the code (that will be included on rule-set that is in final edit tonight). If a move starts and doesn’t directionally continue with prescribed velocity, program will close at entry or prior.”
    • The screen capture of the one minute chart below shows you the determined location for the stop for the trade.
      • The stop was set just above VWAP and the resistance on the pivot trading box. Above is important to allow for other stops. Your stop will be a total of about 13 – 19 ticks depending on exact entry point.
      • You will also notice that I have drawn the Fibonacci retracements on the chart to determine where the trading box pivot resistance is on the one minute model. If you do not know how to do this, be sure to either watch the videos we have on our You Tube channel, read through recent reporting or obtain some private coaching. We do not include the Fibonacci levels on the model because it makes the chart difficult to load on many machines – especially laptops.
      • oil, trade, stop

        The stop for the oil trade was set just above the pivot resistance and just above VWAP.

    • The stop was moved to the trade entry point in the example below, as trade proved itself below the pivot support. “M – Machine stop at entry”.
      • The stop at entry now put us in a no loss position. It was not moved until trade was below the pivot support AND trade hit the first Fibonacci support. Oil trade then bid up to 1 tick under the stop and entry point a number of times before continuing down intra-day.
      • To be even more precise about the trade short entry point and the location of the stop you would have to view a fractal of the Fibonacci levels one down. This is not required or reasonable for the day trader executing orders manually to do, it would be too cumbersome for most traders. However, if you want to learn how to do this you can either get in to some trade coaching or ask at our next webinar for oil trading that will be held late February. I am simply pointing out that the precise entry and stop was not coincidental and the fact that trade returned to just under by one tick and ran sideways for nearly 30 minutes was no coincidence. That is machines in the oil trading market.
      • Oil, trade, stop moved

        Oil trade dropped below pivot trading box support and hit first Fib mark and stop was now set to trade entry point.

  • Timing Trade Entry.
    • The main trading box on the one minute is the support and resistance of the range (where the red and blue dotted and white dotted are).
      • Below is an example screen shot of oil trade from the oil trading room example above that shows the intra-day trend of oil trade and the entry point short under the support which is now resistance.
        • Trade was trending down in futures from open. Oil was now trading under support on 1 minute chart model, now resistance. 
      • Crude, oil, trade, example

        Crude oil trade short example chart shows intra-day trend, breach of support and execution of trade on chart.

    • To pin point timing to the second you can use the pivot areas (top and bottom of range) and monitor the coil around the main support and resistance areas and use the smaller trading box around the pivots. Recent blog posts / videos discuss this and I will discuss further in near term video / blog posts.
    • Indicators on the one minute that I use are the Stochastic RSI, MACD and Squeeze Momentum Indicator. The nature of these indicators on a short time frame like the one minute can be deceiving for even the more advanced trader. Use them with caution.
  • Using the Oil Trade Alerts.
    • You can utilize our oil trade alerts in three main ways;
      • The live trading room provides charting and voice broadcast from our lead trader. This is not a chat room – it is intended for traders to be able to hear our lead trader call trades live and view the charting he is using. Any chat is specifically kept to key signals from traders in attendance. This is primarily used by full time traders, institutional or private trading firms.
      • The oil trade chat room (private Discord server) is for chat and oil trade signals etc. You can get push notifications to your phone for quick alerts. This is faster than the Twitter oil alert service provided but not as fast as being in the oil trading room with our lead trader. But the lead trader is not always in the live room so Discord provides fast alerts.
      • The Twitter EPIC oil alert feed is also used by some of our traders.
    • Trade alerts as shown in oil trading room (specifically the chat room private server on Discord) for trimming the short position as it proves out.

      oil, trade, alerts, trading, room

      Trade alerts as shown in oil trading room for trimming the short position as it proves out.

    • Screen image of the oil trade alert feed on Twitter as the trade progressed.
    • oil, trade, alerts

      Screen image of the oil trade alert feed on Twitter as the trade progressed.

  • Trimming Positions.
    • In the example above (the screen shot of the Discord private member chat room), you see a series of trade alerts from our trader signalling position trimming.
    • First Price Target Achieved. “M – first target hit 52.29 trim 10%.”
      • The position was trimmed at 52.29 per the original alert signaled as follows “1 Min model price targets 52.29 52.11 51.88 51.66.”
      • The amount or size of trim (cover) on the trade was determined to be 10% because this was only the first target in a highly probable trade. The probability rule-set encompasses about 5700 rules so we won’t go in to that here and is not needed for the oil trader to be highly successful using this trading system.
      • The first price target alerted was 0.5 retracement on Fibonacci on 1 min oil trading model.
      • Notice how trade reversed after the target was hit and was denied at the bottom of the pivot trading box and just under VWAP. Comment from lead trader in the chat room “when it dumped at 52.37 that was a VWAP touch at resistance – boom.”

        oil, trade, price, target, alert

        The first price target alerted was 0.5 retracement on Fibonacci on 1 min oil trading model.

    • Price Target 2 Hit. “M – Trim 20% 52.17 at target 2 @ 52.11 short time frame momo reversal”.
      • When price misses a target and reverses, which is what it did in this instance (by a fraction), our rule-set in the strategy is to trim the position.
      • The size of the trim was in accordance to price target 2 trim size in the rule-set, which is 20%.
      • Below is the oil chart model showing the location of the alert to trim size and trade reversing intra-day after meeting price target objective.

        Price target, oil, trade

        Location of price target 2 was the trading box support on oil chart. Trade reversed a fraction before.

    • At 30 minute candle expiring trade alert was sent to trim 10% because oil trade held support. In this case pivot trading box support. See chart below that coincides with alert “M – trim 10% 52.03 on timing”.
    • Trade alert, trim, trade, oil

      At 30 minute candle expiring trade trim 10% because oil trade held support. In this case pivot trading box support.

    • Remaining oil trade alerts to trim winning trade. Strategy works well. Oil trading room screen image is below.
      • Alerts provided were as follows; “M – trim at 51.94 on timing (target 2 @ 51.88), 30%.
        M – Correction: target 3 at 51.88
        M – trim 10% 51.88 target 3 hit
        M – stop on remaining 52.13 or 51.67 if hit.”
    • oil, trade, trims, oil trading room, alerts

      Remaining oil trade alerts to trim winning trade. Strategy works well. Oil trading room screen image.

    • Trade alert to close oil trade position. “M – stop activated on remaining position 52.13″.
  • trade alert, crude, oil, trading, room
    • Oil chart showing where to trim short trade at next Fibonacci support line.
    • oil, chart, Fibonacci

      Oil chart showing where to trim short trade at next Fibonacci support line.

    • Oil trade alert produced a 57 point move for an excellent win. Chart shows the trade progression.
    • oil, trade, alert 57 points

      Oil trade alert produced a 57 point move for an excellent win. Chart shows the trade progression.

Per previous;

Day Trading Crude Oil Futures One Minute Strategy Model Jan 27 504 PM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $WTI $USO #Crude #Oil #Daytrading

daytrading, crude, oil, model, 1 min

Day Trading Crude Oil Futures One Minute Strategy Model Jan 27 504 PM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $WTI $USO #Crude #Oil #Daytrading

Per previous;

The main trading box range is shown in chart below with purple arrows and the pivot at support and resistance trading box is shown with white arrows (for micro timing decisions).

trading, strategy, crude, oil, futures, one minute, model

Trade support and resistance shown on one minute chart model for crude oil futures day trading strategy.

Also Monitor Oil Resistance and Support Levels on the 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Chart Models.

Beyond using the EPIC Oil Algorithm model for weekly / daily trading strategy / structure and the one minute chart model for timing day trades, use the daily, weekly and monthly chart models for important decisions in oil trade.

The longer the charting time-frame the more serious support and resistance areas should be considered. In other words, key resistance on the monthly or weekly charts trump consideration on the daily and 4 hour and so on.

Trading trend, indicators, support and resistance, support and resistance, indicators and more should have bias to your trade sizing and positioning.

Crude oil trading strategy on 4 hour chart model, key areas of support and resistance noted with white arrows.

Although a test chart (for our machine trading), the 4 hour oil chart below has been responding well to the bounce trend in oil trade so I continue to use it. The key areas of support and resistance are noted, however, all lines are support and resistance levels.

Symmetry on 4 hour oil chart model should be considered. Currently trading over 50 MA.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/4IPdy5KQ-Symmetry-on-4-hour-oil-chart-model-should-be-considered-Current/

oil, chart, symmetry

Symmetry on 4 hour oil chart model should be considered. Currently trading over 50 MA.

Oil trade met the price target on the 4 hour model perfect to timing. See charts below.

price target, oil, chart

Oil trade met the price target on the 4 hour model perfect to timing.

Per previous;

4 Hour Crude Oil Chart – 20 MA seems the most logical support test for a long trade entry test likely 52.90 area on West Texas.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/yXtctNNT-4-Hour-Crude-Oil-Chart-20-MA-seems-the-most-logical-support-te/

4 hour, crude, oil, chart

4 Hour Crude Oil Chart – 20 MA seems the most logical support test for a long trade entry test likely 52.90 area on West Texas

The previously published chart shows primary support areas to watch (per below).

Per previous;

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/HSlDUao0-Crude-oil-trading-strategy-on-4-hour-chart-model-key-areas-of-s/

Crude, oil, 4 hour, chart

Crude oil trading strategy on 4 hour chart model, key areas of support and resistance noted with white arrows.

Symmetry on this 4 hour oil chart model should be considered also. There are 3 options for trade trajectory here.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/u2ck1SQr-Symmetry-on-this-4-hour-oil-chart-model-should-be-considered-als/

symmetry, oil, charting

Symmetry on this 4 hour oil chart model should be considered also. There are 3 options for trade trajectory here.

Per previous;

Key resistance and support for day trading crude oil futures on 4 hour test chart for sizing strategy on machine orders.

Symmetry on this chart structure says 55.30 on West Texas Crude is likely near Feb 1 and down to target. #oil #trading #strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/iAGb6fPu-Symmetry-on-this-chart-structure-says-55-30-on-West-Texas-Crude/

oil, trading, strategy, symmetry

Symmetry on this chart structure says 55.30 on West Texas Crude is likely near Feb 1 and down to target. #oil #trading #strategy

Per previous;

And with this chart also, it is responding well but also is a test chart. I’ve been watching it closely as the support and resistance areas on the charting do seem to be in play. Our techs are back testing test charts.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/mxzmX1jP-Key-resistance-and-support-for-daytrading-crude-oil-futures-on-4/

4 hour, resistance, support, chart, crude, oil

Key resistance and support for day trading crude oil futures on 4 hour test chart for sizing strategy on machine orders.

Daily crude chart resistance 54.23, above that holds and 57.32 is in play for Feb 20, 2019 price target.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/k6uGFdfn-Daily-crude-chart-resistance-54-23-above-that-holds-and-57-32-i/

crude, oil, day, chart

Daily crude chart resistance 54.23, above that holds and 57.32 is in play for Feb 20, 2019 price target.

Per previous;

Daily FX USOIL WTI chart shows 54.14 Feb 1 price target still in play, look for spike or drop in to date. #crude #oil.

A pull back to 20 MA on daily chart is most probable.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Bqus0DSF-Daily-FX-USOIL-WTI-chart-shows-54-14-Feb-1-price-target-still-in/

crude, oil, daily, chart

Daily FX USOIL WTI chart shows 54.14 Feb 1 price target still in play, look for spike or drop in to date. #crude #oil

Per previous;

Key support and resistance on daily crude oil chart is noted for day trading strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/GLKLdhlh-Key-support-and-resistance-on-daily-crude-oil-chart-is-noted-for/

Crude, oil, daily, chart, trading, strategy

Key support and resistance on daily crude oil chart is noted for day trading strategy.

Various points of resistance and support on weekly oil chart. Watch the red trend lines close.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/BvApgMYX-Various-points-of-resistance-and-support-on-weekly-oil-chart-Wa/

Weekly, oil, chart, trend lines

Various points of resistance and support on weekly oil chart. Watch the red trend lines close.

Per previous;

Weekly FX USOIL WTI crude oil chart has been responding well also to market support and resistance areas for trade.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/uXawcdzo-Weekly-FX-USOIL-WTI-crude-oil-chart-has-been-responding-well-als/

weekly, crude, oil , chart

Weekly FX USOIL WTI crude oil chart has been responding well also to market support and resistance areas for trade.

Per previous;

Key support and resistance noted on weekly crude oil chart for futures trade strategy.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/9tWNwSap-Key-support-and-resistance-noted-on-weekly-crude-oil-chart-for-f/

weekly, crude, oil, chart, futures, strategy

Key support and resistance noted on weekly crude oil chart for futures trade strategy.

Other charts are used in decisions for bias toward trade, some are included below and for others visit the private oil chat room on Discord.

30 minute intra-day crude oil sketch chart from Curtis’ trading desk.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/etSPbOpT-30-minute-doodle-chart/

30 minute, sketch chart, oil

30 minute intra-day crude oil sketch chart from Curtis’ trading desk.

4 Hour chart structure shows sideways trade in crude oil of late. Also shows timing coming due this candle.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/USIw0bJw-4-Hour-chart-structure-shows-sideways-trade-in-crude-oil-of-late/

4 hour, oil, chart, structure, timing

4 Hour chart structure shows sideways trade in crude oil of late. Also shows timing coming due this candle.

It is also highly recommended that you review recent reporting, discord room chat (regular guidance is posted in the oil chat room private server) and the various videos that are released on a regular basis.

January 2019 Oil Trading Alert Profit / Loss.

Oil Trading Profit/Loss Jan 2019 | +63.05% +63,049.00 41 Wins 3 Losses 93% Win Rate Large Account | Crude Oil Trade Alerts.

Feb 6 – Day Trading Short for a Break to Downside Price Targets (How to with video).

How I Day Trade Crude Oil Short | Downside Break (Waterfall) | Oil Trading Strategies (w/video).

Jan 31 – Day Trade Timing Strategies for Crude Oil Trade Around Time Cycles and EIA.

Trading Strategy for Crude Oil Futures | Video | Intra-Day Timing, EIA, Time Cycle, Model Resistance & Support.

Jan 28 – Day Trading the Support and Resistance of the Model. How to.

100 Tick Move | Crude Oil Day Trading Strategies | Trade Model Support and Resistance

Jan 27 – Weekly Crude Oil Trading Strategy Guidance Private Post for Premium Members. 

Oil Trade Strategies | Day Trading Crude Oil | Premium Member Weekly Guidance.

Jan 23 – Day Trading Crude Oil Futures for Compound Gains.

Not Just Concept: Day Trading Crude Oil 10K – 1 Million in 24 Mos at 10 Ticks Day (Compound Gains).

Jan 20 –  Weekly Crude Oil Trading Strategy Guidance Private Post for Premium Members. 

Oil Trade Strategy | Day Trading Crude Oil Futures | Premium Weekly Guidance.

Jan 19 – A detailed inside look at our day traders’ strategies in crude oil day trading room.

How I Day Trade Crude Oil +90% Win Rate | Friday’s 158 Tick Move | The Strategy We Used To Trade It.

Jan 18 – By far one of the most important videos for day trading crude oil since our inception;

How I Day Trade Crude Oil on One Minute Chart | Trading Signals | Alerts (with video).

If you have any questions send me a note please!

Best and peace!

Curt

PS Remember to protect capital at all cost, cut losers fast and know that when you win you really win. Use the 1 min charting model for entry timing, cut losers fast and re-enter if you have to. Do that until you learn how to be a regular win-side trader.

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

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Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) is rated Top 250 Stock exchanges authority, covering also Mathematical finance and Economy of the United States

Article Topics: Day Trading, Crude, Oil, Futures, Strategy, USOIL, WTI, CL_F, USO

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