RE: EPIC v3 Software Protocol Code Updates

 

When developing the software our team back tested 60 months (per white paper). 

 

Today we spent significant time back testing further than 60 months. The most recent market event (Corona) more resembles 2008.

 

In short, even the most “throttled” of the EPIC v3 software protocols is not “tight” enough for “market events”. Specifically I am referring to the positioning protocol v3 has to fire within.

 

We have further adapted the software to only fire on a daytrading (intra-day) protocol.

 

Specifically this means that all indicators EPIC v3 uses to fire will remain the same, see white paper here:

 

https://compoundtrading.com/white-paper-how-epic-v3-crude-oil-machine-trading-outperforms-conventional-trading-methods/  

 

But the hold area of trade (the positioning draw-down threshold) becomes one range on the 1 minute chart. In other words, EPIC v3 will fire but will fire only within the current 1 minute model range and will not hold anything below a one minute range support.

 

In practical terms this means that all trades will be high frequency intra day mode when firing and there will be no holds. No holds on weekends and holds end of day will occur but only within the 1 minute range.

 

In summary the “positioning” part of the code has been removed completely and only the intra day high frequency remains. The code is in essence the same with the exception of the “positioning” component.

 

A detailed update will follow in a white paper update in editing now.

 

Watching the alerts over the next few days and attending the live trading room will give you a better idea than this letter will.

 

Any questions let me know,

 

Thanks

 

Curt 


EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading Software Updates, A Follow-Up to Last Week’s Note on February 2nd.

RE: Software Drawdown Protocols vs Expected Returns and Oil Trade Alerts.

Good day traders,

Last weeks note (if you have not read it) can be found here;

EPIC v3 Crude Oil Code Updates: Drawdown & Short Selling Protocols $CL_F $USO #machinetrading

Since the Feb 2 note I have had some questions from our clients that I suspect others have also, so I a summarizing responses from those questions below.

Our Primary Objective

The goal in our development is now limiting draw-downs, we know the software works and that is not at issue, at issue is the size of potential draw-down.

Our primary objective is to find the range of “throttle” in the software that provides a consistent return with the least volatility in ROI.

Draw-down Protocol “Events”

The software is designed to trade on historical structures, trade set-ups, order flow and more – find details in the most recent white paper update can be found here.

Specifically to draw-down protocols, in my last note I described the change in code to be throttled 50% (limiting potential downside to 50% of what is described in the white paper). I also explained that if required we would throttle it again another 50% of its most recent setting.

Last week crude oil seemed to be basing from a technical perspective and the software (considering the chop) did well, however, we were not comfortable with the potential draw-down risk in the “event” driven chop.

At issue specifically are market “events”, such as with the recent virus event out of China. Event periods will potentially cause draw-downs, our objective is to avoid this volatility.

As of today we have done that – throttled the draw-down protocol again.

The reason is simple, our objective now is to limit unnecessary draw-down percentages to the point that we can allow the software to run without concern to draw-downs even if that limits potential returns. For now this is the case and as explained previously if we open the throttle at all we will advise our clients well in advance. 

In practical terms this means that the software size held is limited intra-day when in draw-down and the range is limited. The range is not changed from previous, being one full “quad” and/or “channel” range on the EPIC Algorithm Model but the size held is limited to near 1/10 size. The size can very from approximately 1/10 to 3/10 size but the software will “flash” in and out any adds with near zero range stops executing at each key support in a draw-down.

Oil Trade Alerts

This will at times cause the oil trade alerts feed to be very active but yet at times will be very silent as the software will only execute the highest probability trades also.

This represents the tightest throttle possible in our code.

Expected Returns vs. Draw-Down Risk

Through development we have had plateaus of code structure ranging from 20% – 150% ROI expectation and we even looked toward 300% being possible.

However, there is a volatility to potential draw-down that comes with higher expectation of ROI. This has to be balanced with account size and risk tolerance.

Our objective is to code software that has limited draw-down with highest ROI on specifically 10 contract size accounts. As explained previously, 30 contract and higher accounts this is much different. 

At the current throttle setting our estimation of returns is somewhere between 40 – 80% per year (likely closer to 40%) with very littler risk to the down-side as we have run the software in this throttle range prior for some time and this is the ROI expectation. The variance in ROI expectation (40%- 80%) is in consideration of market conditions and not how we expect the software to run.

After the software has run for a considerable time at this level of “throttle” we will look at releasing the “throttle”, but this will be only considered after some time and again I emphasize that our clients will be notified well in advance.

Being as transparent as I can, the reason for this is motivated by the fact that we have been in development for near 4 years and there is a point where returns need to be the norm and not volatility in development. We need to run a low risk environment for some time now as development has been costly. When we have recouped development costs and put some profit back in to the project we can then look at further development and associated risk. 

Our next white paper update will reflect the content of these updates notes.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

 

Article topics; crude, oil, trading, machine trading, algorithm


Part I of Our Crude Oil Trading Strategies Article for this Week of Trade (UNLOCKED).

Crude oil was trading in an uptrend channel on a sixty minute chart time frame since October 3 2019 until January 7, 2020.

Part II of this oil trading strategy article click here (Premium).

The sell-off is now over 1400 points from high 65.00 dollar range in early January to 51.25 on FX USOIL WTI at time of writing.

The 60 minute oil chart below shows the channel trend lines and sell-off.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/81k9BE4e-The-60-minute-oil-chart-below-shows-the-channel-trendlines-and-s/

60 minute, crude oil, chart

The 60 minute oil chart below shows the channel trendlines and sell-off.

The Set-Up.

At some point oil will bounce, how far it bounces depends on a number of technical and fundamental factors that we will look at in detail in Part II of this article (Premium).

The primary basic set-up as I see it includes an over-shoot to the downside at this point considering historical price extensions for crude oil trade (technically speaking) and obviously the Corona virus scare coming out of China has given oil traders reason to take considerable risk off here.

But it will bounce.

We will be looking for a snap-back trade at minimum in the range of 400 ticks at this point, but this range of snap back could be significantly more if oil continues to sell off this week.

On the swing trade side (consideration) I wouldn’t start a swing until you see a considerable trending channel form on lower time – frames. The time frame you choose depends on your trading style, risk, size management and time-frame. Here again, in Part II of this post we will look at those levels in more detail.

We will also look at daytrading levels to watch closely.

Whichever way you look at it a significant opportunity for a long snap-back trade is setting up here and could occur this week.

The monthly crude oil chart that I shared publicly earlier this evening below shows a probable bounce area in the region of 49.50s on FX USOIL WTI.  

Crude oil monthly chart suggests 49.50s possible for bounce. $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT $SCO $UCO #OOTT

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/E5rtdLT7-Crude-oil-monthly-chart-suggests-49-50s-possible-for-bounce/

Crude, oil, trading, plan, chart

Crude oil monthly chart suggests 49.50s possible, areas of support and resistance noted FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OOTT

If you have an interest in how our software will be trading and alerting and recent developments with its structure of trading protocols an article was released earlier today you can find at this link here:

EPIC v3 Crude Oil Code Updates: Drawdown & Short Selling Protocols $CL_F $USO #machinetrading

Part II of this Article (Premium) is available here:

Protected: Crude Oil Trading Plan Part II (PREMIUM): Support levels for a possible bounce. How we will trade this move. $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT $SCO $UCO #OOTT

If you would like to receive more free trading set-up articles like this one, subscribe to our free newsletter service here:

Join our mailing list for free trading set-ups, market news, special events and promo codes.

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

Article Topics; Crude, Oil, Trading, Strategies, FX, USOIL, WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UWT, $DWT, $SCO, $UCO, #OOTT

 


RE: EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading Software Updates

Good afternoon traders,

It is Sunday Feb 2, 2020 and futures markets will be opening soon.

In advance of a new week I am communicating our most recent EPIC v3 code updates to keep everyone abreast of changes. I have had a number of email and DM discussions and will encapsulate the question and answer of those discussions below.

Through-out the previous trading week I did communicate much of this content below in summary form via email, in private oil trade member server on Discord and even Twitter. If you prefer the reader’s digest version see this link: https://twitter.com/curtmelonopoly/status/1223755725572378624

The EPIC v3 version software is consistently on the win side to near 100% win-rate, easily above 90% consistently. This goal was the primary challenge for us in development, without this accomplishment everything else is moot – it simply would not matter. Coding the draw-down protocol to a level of comfort is much much less work.

In short, we have coded with success an extremely high win percentage rate and that took extensive work and includes over 8700 instructions of code. This is our concrete footing.

At issue however, is when the software does lose a trade – specifically the drawdown amount.

Also at issue, and not as problematic is the win rate on the short selling side. Per previous communications we may or may not ever find success in this code and it doesn’t really affect the ROI expectations because our code protocol for drawdown on short side trades is extremely throttled so there is near zero potential loss in short trade sequences.

Specific to the drawdown percentage during a loss, the most recent white paper outlines the protocol for percentage of loss allowable here: 

White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading

So then the question becomes, if we know we can win easily more than 90% then why risk significant drawdown amounts when a trade does not work?

The answer or the balance of thinking is in the potential annual returns, we do not know the answer to the question – if we throttle the software to lower risk how that will affect annual returns.

We know that we can run returns 80% – 150% per year leaving the drawdown protocol as it is, but the problem is that the drawdowns are not just very uncomfortable, with smaller accounts they are more significant in terms of percentage and put at risk the account itself.

So this update is specifically motivated by and to accounts in the 10 contract size category or less, although updates to the code are in effect for all size of accounts.

So as I communicated to our clients last week we have initially throttled the software drawdown protocol to 50% of the previous protocol as outlined in the most recent white paper update (link above).

If this code update (50% of previous) is not performing as we expect we will again throttle to another 50%. I do not think this will be necessary and I am sure the current update is more than acceptable.

What does this mean in real world practical applications?

The expectations of returns are likely to be less than previously expected but this is not known until we see how the near term trade sequences perform. There is the far off chance the annual returns will actually be better than prior.

The code is throttled which manifests as only the highest probability of trade set ups to trigger a sequence, however, when a sequence starts the frequency of trade may be considerably more because the downside / stops are significantly tighter than the previous code.

In practical terms, this means that the software will not likely hold more than a 3/10 size trade for any amount of time at all unless the win side trade is extremely structured and trending up and it also means that any amount of draw-down will be limited to one quad on EPIC 30 minute model (with some slippage allowed pending order flow).

The range of trade is much smaller (limited to one quad on EPIC model or channel of the model), the size is much smaller in a sequence if there is pressure at all and the frequency of trade once it starts firing will be much higher.  

In summary, you will see the software fire predominantly per the EPIC 30 minute model weighted against all other models and order flow within a much tighter size management protocol.

It is difficult to summarize over 8700 instructions but that is my best attempt at a summary.

I encourage you to read the most recent white paper update (link above) and review the new update when released.

For those asking what I expect forward, you can expect a very tight trading protocol with higher frequency and very limited downside at any given time.

When the software gets in to a sequence that is well structured and trending you can expect the previous ROI trajectory to be returned very quickly.

Do I think that will be this week? I am not totally convinced but I wouldn’t doubt it. Structure was returning to trade on Friday and when enough structure is returned to market wide trade it won’t take the software long (as we have experienced in other drawdowns since v3 inception).

In terms of changing the throttle going forward, I wouldn’t expect us to loosen the code throttle any time soon. I know in past on a number of occasions we have discussed this and this has been a challenge for us (the balance of risk vs return). HOWEVER, I can say with utmost certainty that we are at a time in our development where risk cannot be tolerated anytime soon. 

I will be sure to communicate clearly IN ADVANCE if this is going to change in future.

To be frank we have been in development for some time and we have the winning card that we can rely on – the long side win rate that is extremely high. We were simply trying to push our development to potentially garner the largest returns possible. But reality is reality and at a certain point in time you simply have to accept where you have come and let the return rate be what it is.

Watch how the software performs over the next month and we can re-look at it at a later time. Send me your thoughts after a month or so. A month of trade executions will explain much better than I can here.

For now lets enjoy some consistent returns without the stress. 2020 will be stressful enough in the markets, we don’t need to add more.

An updated oil trade report is due out for our clients later this evening also by the way. 

Any questions please send me a note via email compoundtradingofficial@gmail.com.

Thank you.

Curt

Further Learning:

If you would like to learn more, click here and visit our Crude Oil Trading Academy page for complimentary oil trading knowledge – posts from our top crude oil traders that includes learning systems, blog posts and videos.

Welcome to NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures.

Subscribe to Oil Trading Platform:

Standalone Oil Algorithm Newsletter (Member Charting Reports sent out weekly at times in report form or updated on email regularly).

Real-Time Oil Trading Alerts (Private Twitter feed and Discord Private Server Chat Room).

Oil Trading Room Bundle (includes Weekly Newsletter, Trading Room, Charting and real-time Trading Alerts on Twitter and private Discord Chat Room Server).

Commercial / Institutional Multi User License (for professional trading groups).

One-on-One Trade Coaching (Via Skype or in person).

1 2 3 43