EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trading Software Code Upgrade Details | White Paper Update
April 19, 2020
EPIC crude oil machine trading software is a proprietary software development project with an aim to trade crude oil futures. Historical reference can be found at the linked document below.
This white paper update is specific to the EPIC V3.1 software coding update completed for live trade use commencing April 19, 2020.
Purpose of Software Update
In recent crude oil futures trade, specifically since the COVID-19 black swan event, the trading price range and volatility of oil trade (OVX) has been divergent of historical structure.
See chart below: Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) chart showing oil trade volatility spiking from the 20s to 330s during black swan event.
Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) chart showing oil trade volatility spiking from the 20s to 330s during black swan event.
Impact to Software
The volatility in trade and the range of price negatively impacts the smaller range of accounts our software may trade at any given time. More specifically any account trading CL futures less than 10 contracts or approximately 100,000.00 in size is at significant risk. At 10 contract size to 30 contract size the risk is considerably mitigated but still present and at 30 contract size or greater the risk is almost completely eliminated.
While markets are functioning within historical normal trading ranges this is not the case, a 10 contract size account is at very low risk with EPIC V3 software and micro accounts (anything smaller than 10 contracts) there is moderate to considerable risk (the smaller the account the more risk).
Remedy of Risk
Our coding team has performed an update to the EPIC V3 software to trade a base account size of 30 contracts (300,000.00 USD or greater) to allow for greater range of trading price and volatility.
The software instructions for the most part have not changed, the original EPIC V3 protocols remain per previous white paper linked above – at the start of this document.
What is different is simply the size of account as the base case instructional presumption within the code which allows for the software to trigger in smaller “dot plots” within various trading ranges and structure.
Projected Returns
The projected returns annually are expected to drop to a base case scenario of +-40% in an extremely volatile market as we are witnessing since the on-set of COVID-19, however, in times of less volatility we expect this will significantly advantage the EPIC V3.1 updated software and annual returns are expected to well exceed EPIC V3 software coded for a 10 contract base case scenario.
Put simply, the larger the account the more advantaged (refer to the original white paper for further code instruction detail).
At times when crude oil trading price range and volatility return to “normal” conditions we expect returns to easily exceed 100% per annum, however, all return expectations at this juncture are only predicted results based on in-lab testing and not real-world trade. All return estimations and projections are simply theoretical until proven otherwise.
Our oil trade alert clients can refer to the document below for more detail pertaining to the alerts service;
Draft white paper outlining key reasons EPIC v3 oil futures machine trading software outperforms conventional trading methods:
Lightening Fast Decisions. EPIC crude oil trading software executes trades to over 8700 weighted decisions instantly. The instructions provided within the architecture is growing daily. A human trader cannot make decisions as quickly, cannot process the data required for most intelligent trading probabilities and cannot execute trades as precisely.
Algorithmic Chart Models. The EPIC software includes over thirty proprietary algorithmic chart models and the catalogue is growing. The algorithmic models have been designed, tested and refined in real-world trade for over 3 years by a team of day traders, each with over 20 years of experience. The oil trading models represent all time-frames from 15 second to monthly time-frames of trade. The algorithmic models have been back-tested to sixty months historically.
Conventional Charting. The software includes conventional charting structures on all time-frames, also back-tested sixty months.
Common Trade Set-Ups. Included in the software are common trade set-ups that oil day traders implement. This is dynamic and additions are made regularly to the software code reflecting current structured trade set-ups.
Order Flow. EPIC IDENT™ is data-driven order flow intelligence in real-time to achieve best outcomes.The software includes and executes to a proprietary order flow identification system that tracks behavior (specifically isolating other market machine liquidity) and weighs identified entities and historical trade patterns to its trade decisions (instructions). EPIC IDENT™ increases its intelligence as it gathers data intra-day specific to liquidity flow, historical patterns, time of day, volatility, various preferences, latency, rejects and more. The method is similar to back-testing charting, however, the process is real-time. In short the software is looking for “fingerprints” within market liquidity. We cannot back-test 60 months as with charting but back-testing from date of software inception is possible.
Time Cycles. Time cycles are within all algorithmic and conventional trading model structures, order flow also has identified time cycles and other time cycle events such as weekly reporting in oil markets such as API, EIA and rig counts. Additionally there are time-of day market time cycles around the world. Time-cycles are included in the software architecture.
ROI Trajectory “Game”. The software has a “game” element in that it is designed to continue its most recent ROI trajectory (or return to its trajectory of ROI should it have a draw-down period). In other words, if the trajectory of ROI is for example 100% and it draws-down to 80% it then will “weigh” trade decisions more to the most probable trade set-ups until the ROI trajectory is returned. It also will push its decision “weight” to exceed the current ROI trajectory to establish a better ROI to which it is then “obligated” to maintain and correct to, hence the expectation that the ROI will continue to improve over time. This is the “machine learning” component of development. We are finding that the software is discovering increasingly more creative ways to “game” the ROI return trajectory. This Sept 4, 2019 document details an insider look at this topic within development. Edited Sept 5, Draw-Down Oil Daytrading Session: Question and Answer Review | EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Software.
Combined, these advantages enable the EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading software to outperform conventional trading methods.
Introduction.
The world of public market trade is rapidly changing. It is estimated (depending on source) that over 80% of crude oil futures are not traded by humans and are now traded by machine.
Machine trade may be simple bot style software, high-frequency software or more sophisticated architecture as with the EPIC v3 class of algorithm.
Our team commenced the oil trading software development journey four years ago with algorithmic chart model development. From day one we employed computer scientists to work with us on a daily basis to build software emulating our trading methods.
Over time the software started to win more trades than our traders and today we rely almost solely on the software to execute trades. We simply “tweak” the software at each trade sequence to improve performance.
The current EPIC v3 win-rate consistently comes in at +-90% per trade sequence (variable by +-7%).
The current EPIC return is projected at 85% per year (and has been as high as 140%) – based on real world performance (audited trades available) and is expected to increase over time. The current period of time spans approximately six months and includes hundreds of trade executions (nearing thousands).
For December 27, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily =$331. YTD +$40,275. Projected $84,973 or 85% Per Annum. EPIC v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Sample Account (live video, time stamped alerts, v3 audited P&L available) #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #oiltradingroom #oiltradealerts
For December 27, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily =$331. YTD +$40,275. Projected $84,973 or 85% Per Annum. EPIC v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Sample Account #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #oiltradingroom #oiltradealerts
For October 4, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily +$1,838. YTD +$34,218. Projected $140,331 or 140% Per Annum. EPIC v3 Oil Machine Trade 100k Sample Account (live video, time stamped alerts, v3 audited P&L available) #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #oiltradingroom #oiltradealerts
Oct 4, 2019 Profit & Loss Daily +$1,838. YTD +$34,218. Projected $140,331 140% Per Annum. EPIC v3 Oil Machine Trade #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $WTI $USO #oiltradingroom #oiltradealerts
Account Size – ROI and Draw-Down Volatility.
The smaller the account size traded the more difficult it is for the software to limit risk to down-side and provide optimum returns, however, most recently considerable advancements in the software should limit the draw-down with smaller accounts considerably.
The software is designed to trade within a sequence of trade within structures or set-ups. As the oil market price changes, the software trading logic uses all the different data to update the decision tree utilizing the instruction rule-set.
You can imagine this as a dot plot process similar to the game “go” – not exactly, but the concept helps to visualize how the software plots a sequence plan for trade.
The “ebb and flow” of regular oil market trade allows opportunity for the software to plot a plan of trade within a sequence, the larger the account the more dots can be plotted (trades can be “bite sized” entries within an “ebb and flow”).
The sample account size for the purpose of this document is at the smallest range, being 100,000.00. A 1,000,000.00 account would expect approximately half the volatility / draw-down exposure and up to 50% more return. A 10,000,000.00 account would be considerably more stable to draw-down risk and potential returns and so on.
Draw-down Protocol.
During any particular 24 hour trading period the EPIC v3 software protocol (as of October 6, 2019 updates) expects on average draw-down no more than as follows;
Hard stop architecture is also available, however, the annual expectation of returns would be significantly less than represented in the current real-world trade example above.
Real-World Trader / Investor Use.
In real-world examples the EPIC v3 oil trading software is being used daily by oil traders as an additional indicator and / or as an auto trading mechanism.
Examples include the Compound Trading Group live oil trading room (live broadcast of trades via voice and charts), live alert service via Twitter and Discord private server feeds and regular Oil Trading Reports that include algorithmic and conventional chart structures and guidance.
Additionally, SOVORON™ uses our data flow to integrate to their platform. SOVORON™ ‘Algorithmic machine trading of your personal Crude Oil Futures exchange account’. See www.sovoron.com for information.
Architecture of API Trade.
EPIC v3 software is designed to be deployed remotely – accessing an account and executing trades. This provides the account holder with ultimate control. The account holder grants the software access and the software executes machine trades to the account. The account holder can turn on or off access at any time. Architecture provides opportunity for decentralized platform integration.
Documentation.
Video. Our team traders and engineers have live video recording of the trading sessions with EPIC v3 software within a trading room environment.
Trader and Developer Repository. We provide guidance to our subscriber (paywall) clients in a Discord private server (charts and trade set-up explanations) in a real-time environment. The private server acts as a repository for our developers and our trading service (paywall) clients.
Live Trade Alerts. All trades have been broadcast over mic in a live trading room (recorded as mentioned above) and most have been alerted by way of text instruction to the Discord private server and/or private Twitter feed for time-stamped evidence.
Broker Accounts. The EPIC v3 trades are real-world trades and as such broker profit and loss statements can be made available.
This paper outlines the opportunity that change in machine trade within global finance markets presents.
Competitors within the machine trade industry are becoming more and more refined / successful – the best in class are assumed to be winning a larger portion of proceeds.
The most significant immediate challenge developers face in machine trade within financial markets is building a product that can win within a prescribed threshold of stability limiting down-side and yet over-perform conventional trading methods.
Soon thereafter the challenge becomes competing against “like-kind” machine trade peers and being best in class.
It is our expectation that fewer and fewer competitors will achieve more of the proceeds (as a whole of trade in public markets) at an exponential rate, which does provide urgency to development and deployment.
The EPIC v3 trading software achieves consistent, predictable and very adaptable architecture that provides exceptional ROI potential.
Business Inquiries.
For information about oil trade alerts, oil trading room and oil trade reporting contact Compound Trading Group at [email protected].
For information about automated machine trading platforms contact our agent representative Richard Regan as follows:
Welcome to the oil trading algorithm report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algorithm and I am one of seven primary Algorithmic Chart Models in development at Compound Trading Group (there are over one hundred in total in development at various stages in various markets).
NOTICES:
New members to our oil algorithm charting models, oil trade alerts and oil trading room are encouraged to on-board in a way that equips you as an oil trader for consistent profit.
Invaluable are the crude oil trade alerts (available with or without the trading room / weekly report bundle) and the private member crude oil trading chat room on Discord (included in the bundle) and attendance to the live trading room.
The live alerts are important if you are not at your trading screens 24 hours a day and the chat room allows for interactive lead trader oil trade set-ups as each oil trade approaches. All bundle members can access the live oil trading room when active also.
Reviewing important points of reference and engaging the subscription resources will increase your probability of success considerably. This report also includes links to some recent example “how-to” videos.
Oil Trade Coaching – We strongly suggest users of this algorithmic crude oil trading strategy opt for some level of private one-on-one coaching with our lead trader. Our lead trader is maintaining a crude oil trading alert win-rate of over 90% as of Sept 2, 2018 (time-stamped, live alert, recorded).
On our website one-on-one online coaching packages are available (coaching via Skype) or you can request a custom package reflecting the time you wish to invest in learning. To request a custom package suited to your needs email [email protected] or click here for standard private trade coaching packages. Other options for coaching include online webinars, trade coaching bootcamps and private on location (in person) coaching sessions.
Oil Trading Room – How to Use the Oil Algorithm
Oil Trading Room – How to Trade Intra-day with my Algorithmic Oil Charting
Oil Trading Alerts. Live Lead Trader Video Trading w EPIC Oil Algorithm
Recent articles / videos from our blog about how to trade crude oil with our oil trading algorithm (if you are a newer member that needs an unlock code for any of the posts below please email [email protected]):
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available on our shop page.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is now also in the coding phase for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process, about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on Twitter feed and/or this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an oil algorithmic model in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am presented on (and used on) conventional trade charting as one would normally use.
The goal is to provide oil traders with signals for an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil – first with the reporting format as below, then with machine trading functions and an integrated intelligent assisted traders platform that will provide the user with various settings of automation and personal trade execution.
In the weekly report below you will find simplified levels represented on conventional and algorithmic charting for intra-day (day-trading crude oil), swing trading and investing.
This work (and associated trading) should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on with oil related financial instruments.
Forward questions to [email protected], private message our lead trader on Twitter or in the private Discord oil trading room.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE SIGNAL (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED, ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
Oil Algorithm Observations:
Below is a link for the live algorithmic chart of EPIC the Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (Generation 1, Version 5 including black box modeling). The charting is a real-time trading chart represented on FX USOIL WTI published January 13, 2019.
Click on share button (bottom right beside flag) and when that screen opens click on “make it mine” to view real-time, make edits etc:
The first most predictable trade are the resistance and support cluster areas formed by long term chart trend lines (see charts that have trend-lines represented in red as made available below near bottom of this report – conventional charting trend-lines).
The second most predictable trade (wide trading range primary resistance and support that become predictable buy and sell triggers). Current algorithmic model wide trading range resistance (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 54.45 in the current trading range. Current algorithmic model wide trading range support (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 50.80 in the current trading range – these areas are general range support and resistance areas (our algorithm uses a .15 – .20 cent buffer on either side for these trades – if that is exceeded then trading price is likely to use the line as a pivot until a directional trending trade is established).
Trading between the resistance / support horizontal grey lines is extremely profitable risk – reward if one is disciplined to the patience required and follows the trend of trade.
More recently (as of September 2018) our back-testing has shown that the support and resistance areas noted are used in trade as a decision pivot – in other words, the price tends to pivot around these decision points on the chart and coil over a period of time and then spring out of the coil in an upward or downward trend.
The lower trading range is 47.14 – 50.79 and upper trading range 54.46 – 58.07.
Third most predictable trade (support and resistance of uptrend or down trend channels). On the chart an upward trending trade channel is presented and a downward option (channel support and resistance / trading range is represented as diagonal dotted orange lines and purple arrows – as made available, assist in displaying directional trade decision areas).
Fourth most predictable trade (support and resistance of 30 min quadrants). The diagonal lines make up quadrants (in this instance on a 30 min chart) and are represented as orange diagonal lines that make up geometric diamond shapes. These lines also assist in intra-day trade.
Fifth most predictable trade (support and resistance of most applicable Fibonacci) the Fib support and resistance lines are the horizontal lines in various colors with the exception of purple and yellow (see below). These horizontal lines become support and resistance for intra-day trade.
Sixth most predictable trade (support and resistance of historical support and resistance) Natural / historical support and resistance lines shown in purple or yellow – they represent historical support and resistance. The strongest of the historical support and resistance lines are shown in yellow horizontal and are typically accompanied by a yellow arrow marker.
Seventh most predictable trade signal we use are the time and price targets (red circles). When trade is in a significant uptrend or downtrend the targets become very precise and move up the indicator priority list quick.
Tues, Wed and Fri targets are most predictable in extended multi week up-trends or down-trends.
The Eighth most predictable trade is intra-day. You will notice on some of the charting geometric shapes in green on some of my charting (at times). They are charted live in the trading room and at times the lead trader will highlight these areas intra with white outlines (typically geometric shapes such as diamonds or triangles).
Intra-day Trading Bias
Intra day bias is up side trade as the MACD is turned up on the daily chart and this indicator is usually a leading indicator for oil trade on this time-frame. However, after the recent run up in price (since Christmas) and the pressure that came in to oil trade last week it is highly probable pressure continues in to this coming trading week.
Wide Trading Range – Buy and Sell Triggers for Swing Trading Crude Oil:
Swing trading bias / forward guidance as of Jan 13 12:01 AM EST is indecisive for the reasons noted above.
Review the charting and stay on top of the structures that play out in the different time frames. It has everything to do with the time frame you are trading.
Trade the ranges noted above between the thick grey lines (grey arrows) for the most predictable swing trades between 47.14 – 50.79, 50.80 – 54.44, 54.45 – 58.06, 58.07 to 61.69, 61.70 to 65.31, 65.32 to 68.92, 68.93 to 72.54, 72.55 to 76.14 and 76.15 to 79.74. This is a highly profitable risk-reward way to trade oil if you can be patient to trigger at only the break of the wide range charting areas and are disciplined to cut a losing trade that does not prove in your anticipated trend.
Or trade the range between the channel diagonal lines at support and resistance in up or down channel (orange dotted diagonals).
Significantly more advanced trading rules will be introduced over the coming weeks with the newer Machine Trading software development in full swing now.
Channel Trading Scenarios for this Week on the Model Shown on Algorithmic Model:
Follow the red circle targets up or down per the charts below.
THIS WEEK is more unclear than most in that channel trade could occur parallel to the channels noted on the charts below.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Jan 13 1208 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Dwon channel scenario. Jan 13 1210 AM PM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Gen 1 and Gen 2 Algorithmic Oil Trading Machine Driven Model Development.
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time. Nov 6 1241 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #Chart
Crude Oil Swing Trade Charting.
Monthly Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
On the widest time-frame this monthly crude oil chart seems to hold support and resistance zones at diagonal Fibonacci (outside quad) trend lines and horizontal Fibonacci (mid quad) lines. The timing cycle vertical lines (green dotted) seem to be in play especially when you fractal the time frames down.
Trade is currently testing upside of 50 MA on monthly chart.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart. Jan 13 859 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Lead Trader trading note: If I had this chart in recent trade I would have added to my DWT short when trade touched the lower TL line and trading box support area. I really like this monthly structured charting.
If you are swing trading crude oil I see no reason not to follow the support and resistance areas of this chart for swing trading using appropriate sizing flow at each decision.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure Test Chart – added support resistance markers and trading box. Jan 13 922 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading #charting
Weekly Crude Oil Chart(s):
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
Dating back to 2002, 13 of 14 major time cycles on weekly crude oil chart structure seen trend reversal to some extent or another #Oil #OOTT #TimeCycles FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT $DWT
May 13, 2018 chart post with important notes:
Oil retrace probability high, historically #timecycle Notes.
Crude Oil. Weekly trend-line chart. Dec 17 403 AM FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #OIL #trading
Daily Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Daily Chart MACD still up with price on support of trading box with 50 MA test above Jan 13 1057 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #chart
Lots going on with this daily oil charting. Price bounced near that large trend line down-trending from previous time cycle (dotted gray) and near bottom of trading quad. Now testing 50 MA with reconfirmation of MACD. Bullish with an overhead test is the bottom line.
Crude Oil 30 Min Simple Algorithmic Chart Model Nov 19 434 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points (currently represented in red below on our conventional charting).
Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable.Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Recent Live Crude Oil Trade Alerts (sample signals):
See recent special oil reports, private alert Twitter feed and/or Discord private member oil chat room for many more examples.
Jan 13 – Recent trade alerts will be updated soon in more detail.
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at open #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Personal scalp trade when futures opened Tues night in crude oil $CL_F $USO #OOTT #OilTradeAlerts
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
Welcome to the oil trading algorithm report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algorithm and I am one of seven primary Algorithmic Chart Models in development at Compound Trading Group (there are over one hundred in total in development at various stages in various markets).
NOTICES:
New members to our oil algorithm charting models, oil trade alerts and oil trading room are encouraged to on-board in a way that equips you as an oil trader for consistent profit.
Invaluable are the crude oil trade alerts (available with or without the trading room / weekly report bundle) and the private member crude oil trading chat room on Discord (included in the bundle). The live alerts are important if you are not at your trading screens 24 hours a day and the chat room allows for interactive lead trader oil trade set-ups as each oil trade approaches. All bundle members can access the live oil trading room when active also.
Reviewing important points of reference and engaging the subscription resources will increase your probability of success considerably. This report also includes links to some recent example “how-to” videos.
Oil Trade Coaching – We strongly suggest users of this algorithmic crude oil trading strategy opt for some level of private one-on-one coaching with our lead trader. Our lead trader is maintaining a crude oil trading alert win-rate of over 90% as of Sept 2, 2018 (time-stamped, live alert, recorded).
On our website one-on-one online coaching packages are available (coaching via Skype) or you can request a custom package reflecting the time you wish to invest in learning. To request a custom package suited to your needs email [email protected] or click here for standard private trade coaching packages. Other options for coaching include online webinars, trade coaching bootcamps and private on location (in person) coaching sessions.
Oil Trading Room – How to Use the Oil Algorithm
Oil Trading Room – How to Trade Intra-day with my Algorithmic Oil Charting
Oil Trading Alerts. Live Lead Trader Video Trading w EPIC Oil Algorithm
Recent articles / videos from our blog about how to trade crude oil with our oil trading algorithm:
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available on our shop page.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is now also in the coding phase for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process, about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on Twitter feed and/or this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an oil algorithmic model in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am presented on (and used on) conventional trade charting as one would normally use.
The goal is to provide oil traders with signals for an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil – first with the reporting format as below, then with machine trading functions and an integrated intelligent assisted traders platform that will provide the user with various settings of automation and personal trade execution.
In the weekly report below you will find simplified levels represented on conventional and algorithmic charting for intra-day (day-trading crude oil), swing trading and investing.
This work (and associated trading) should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on with oil related financial instruments.
Forward questions to [email protected], private message our lead trader on Twitter or in the private Discord oil trading room.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE SIGNAL (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED, ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
Oil Algorithm Observations:
Below is a link for the live algorithmic chart of EPIC the Crude Oil Trading Algorithm (Generation 1, Version 5 including black box modeling). The charting is a real-time trading chart represented on FX USOIL WTI published December 17, 2018.
Click on share button (bottom right beside flag) and when that screen opens click on “make it mine” to view real-time, make edits etc:
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Intra-day crude oil trade. Dec 17 242 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
The first most predictable trade are the resistance and support cluster areas formed by long term chart trend lines (see charts that have trend-lines represented in red as made available below near bottom of this report – conventional charting trend-lines).
The second most predictable trade (wide trading range primary resistance and support that become predictable buy and sell triggers). Current algorithmic model wide trading range resistance (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 54.45 in the current trading range. Current algorithmic model wide trading range support (grey arrow – grey horizontal line) at approximately 50.80 in the current trading range – these areas are general range support and resistance areas (our algorithm uses a .15 – .20 cent buffer on either side for these trades – if that is exceeded then trading price is likely to use the line as a pivot until a directional trending trade is established).
Trading between the resistance / support horizontal grey lines is extremely profitable risk – reward if one is disciplined to the patience required and follows the trend of trade.
More recently (as of September 2018) our back-testing has shown that the support and resistance areas noted are used in trade as a decision pivot – in other words, the price tends to pivot around these decision points on the chart and coil over a period of time and then spring out of the coil in an upward or downward trend.
The lower trading range is 47.14 – 50.79 and upper trading range 54.46 – 58.07.
Third most predictable trade (support and resistance of uptrend or down trend channels). On the chart an upward trending trade channel is presented and a downward option (channel support and resistance / trading range is represented as diagonal dotted orange lines and purple arrows – as made available, assist in displaying directional trade decision areas).
Fourth most predictable trade (support and resistance of 30 min quadrants). The diagonal lines make up quadrants (in this instance on a 30 min chart) and are represented as orange diagonal lines that make up geometric diamond shapes. These lines also assist in intra-day trade.
Fifth most predictable trade (support and resistance of most applicable Fibonacci) the Fib support and resistance lines are the horizontal lines in various colors with the exception of purple and yellow (see below). These horizontal lines become support and resistance for intra-day trade.
Sixth most predictable trade (support and resistance of historical support and resistance) Natural / historical support and resistance lines shown in purple or yellow – they represent historical support and resistance. The strongest of the historical support and resistance lines are shown in yellow horizontal and are typically accompanied by a yellow arrow marker.
Seventh most predictable trade signal we use are the time and price targets (red circles). When trade is in a significant uptrend or downtrend the targets become very precise and move up the indicator priority list quick.
Tues, Wed and Fri targets are most predictable in extended multi week up-trends or down-trends.
The Eighth most predictable trade is intra-day. You will notice on some of the charting geometric shapes in green on some of my charting (at times). They are charted live in the trading room and at times the lead trader will highlight these areas intra with white outlines (typically geometric shapes such as diamonds or triangles).
Intra-day Trading Bias
Intra day bias is up side trade as the MACD is turned up on the daily chart and this indicator is usually a leading indicator for oil trade on this time-frame. However, after the recent sell-off oil trade has held this range and could be at a near term bottom. Yet to be determined.
Wide Trading Range – Buy and Sell Triggers for Swing Trading Crude Oil:
Swing trading bias / forward guidance as of Dec 17 3:12 AM EST for the near term is up.
Trade the ranges noted above between the thick grey lines (grey arrows) for the most predictable swing trades between 47.14 – 50.79, 50.80 – 54.44, 54.45 – 58.06, 58.07 to 61.69, 61.70 to 65.31, 65.32 to 68.92, 68.93 to 72.54, 72.55 to 76.14 and 76.15 to 79.74. This is a highly profitable risk-reward way to trade oil if you can be patient to trigger at only the break of the wide range charting areas and are disciplined to cut a losing trade that does not prove in your anticipated trend.
Or trade the range between the channel diagonal lines at support and resistance in up or down channel (orange dotted diagonals).
Significantly more advanced trading rules will be introduced over the coming weeks with the newer Machine Trading Generation 2 models per below in this report.
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Dec 17 246 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Up channel scenario. Dec 17 246 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Down channel scenario. Dec 17 247 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Crude Oil Trading Algorithm. Gen1.V5 (EPIC). Down channel scenario. Dec 17 247 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #Crude #Oil #Trading #Algorithm
Gen 1 and Gen 2 Algorithmic Oil Trading Machine Driven Model Development.
Crude Oil Day-Trading Chart Signals. 1 minute time. Nov 6 1241 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #Chart
Crude Oil Swing Trade Charting.
Monthly Oil Chart(s):
Crude Oil Monthly Chart. Trade under all MAs with MACD turned down Stochastic RSI still turned down. Dec 17 343 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Crude Oil 30 Min Simple Algorithmic Chart Model Nov 19 434 AM FX USOIL WTI $USO $CL_F #OIL #trading
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points (currently represented in red below on our conventional charting).
Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable.Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Recent Live Crude Oil Trade Alerts (sample signals):
Dec 17 – Recent trade alerts will be updated soon in more detail.
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at open #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Personal scalp trade when futures opened Tues night in crude oil $CL_F $USO #OOTT #OilTradeAlerts
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
