Pre-Market Newsletter Nov 14 ($USOIL $WTI, $DXY, $VIX, $GLD Gold, $SLV Silver, $SPY… more.)

Curt MelonopolyTrading Plan, , , , , , , ,

My Stock Trading Plan for Monday November 14, 2016 in Chatroom.

Welcome to the Monday trading session! The futures bulls are alive and well and it should be a good week!

Admittedly, there are rips in certain areas that concern me (like Copper and the US Dollar – too much too fast)… so it seems watch and see and run with the bulls when most logically limited risk. Oil hasn’t ripped yet and Gold and Silver are down. Natural Gas is still confusing me (watching). Bond pain wow, just wow. So be careful everywhere.

Additionally transports last week flying relative to S&P500 and Dow Jones Trucking index hit 52 week high, chemicals look like they’re going to rip, junk bonds last week highest level vs Treasury Bonds since Dec last year $HYG / $TLT, financials $XLF showed relative strength, Saudi Arabia was on a rip $TASI, private REIT market was wrecked, and value stocks vs growth stocks are in break-out $IWD $IWF.

Also as I write the $FTSE just opened and went on a straight rip vertical and US futures are strong.

Specific to starting with more advanced traditional charting and algorithmic charting… the current market conditions are not the best time to do that… but I’ve started with an EPIC the Oil Algo post last evening and we’ll introduce more and more of our algo work over the coming days and weeks between now and end of November.

Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day)

I do trade morning momo stocks (at times), but I do avoid risk. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter if I have time).

The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.

Morning Stock Watch-Lists

Pre-market Decliners: $DVAX $RSO $MNKD $CETV $BRZU $DGAZ $JNUG $CXRX $NUGT

Pre-Market Gainers Watch-list: $CRBP $EBIO $OCUL $MENT $MTL $PTCT $MDCO

Misc. Watch-list: $ETE (Trump play? Chart), $FCX (Trump play ?), $VRX (Continuation?), $UGAZ (Chart), $C (Bank), $MNST (Bottom Play), $DRYS (Shipper), $THC (Bottom Play), $TPL (Trump Play), $JJC (Continued Copper Break-Out?), $AUMN (w / Gold and Silver break-out), $EPI (Chart).

Regular Watch-List: Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F), Natural Gas ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.

Regular Trades:

S & P 500 $SPY ($SPXL, $SPXS)

My bias is toward all time highs on the near horizon… in fact, I think a rip is any moment… a serious rip – I’ve been posting that since before the election on my Twitter feed.

Until we get confirmation of a break-out and trend I will avoid posting pivots / Fib levels and algorithm charting because futures at time of writing look like they are blowing through the upside anyway.

My trading plan with $SPY: I expect volatility to get crushed and I will likely follow that trend with $XIV buys at range pivots / pending price action, volume and other geo events.

$DXY US Dollar Index ($UUP US Dollar Bull, $UDN British Pound, $FXY Japanese Yen Trust, $CNY China, $TZA, $SMK / $EWW Mexico Capped ETF)

The US Dollar has ripped hard – my twitter post outlines main resistance – but it may blow through those like nothing… that is yet to be seen. Here again, when things settle some we’ll work with the standard charting pivots, Fib levels and algorithmic charting (hopefully sometime this week). For now it’s watch.

The Mexican Peso seems way over done to so I’m watching. And China has pegged lowest ever I think (have’t looked yet).

I’ll be watching $FXY for clues with Gold and Miner’s.

My trading plan with $DXY: I may take a long on $UUP if I can lock in a range that makes sense.

Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV)

$VIX 315 AM EST Nov 14, 2016 – Likely to get crushed well below diagonal trend-line and right down to previous lows.

My trading plan with $VIX (volatility) is to run with $XIV at edges of range (if I can catch them).

Gold $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG)

I have posted since the beginning of Oct that I expected an elevator down and posted buy triggers. It seems we’re almost there and a decision will have to be made if and when we get there. If we don’t get there I’ll see.

My trading plan with Gold: Wait for the buy trigger to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Gold Trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Silver $SLV ($USLV, $DSLV)

Same as with Gold, I am looking for one floor down and hope I get it.

My trading plan with Silver: Wait for the buy trigge to hit. If it doesn’t reassess range then.

Other equities I like for Silver trade: $AUMN (penny stock)

Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F)

Epic the Oil Algo has published his first daily report – you can find his oil trading report here.

In summary (at time of writing at 1:39 AM ET) your trading ranges are as follows:

Diagonal trend lines:  Resistance 45.68. Support 43.11 / 42.85. (change intra with diagonal blue lines).

Horizontal trend lines: Resistance 45.78. Support is 43.33 / 43.03 (purple lines).

Moving average: Resistance at 200 MA on the 1 HR.

Alpha algo lines: Refer to chart (red dotted diagonal).

Alpha algo targets for week: At time of writing EPIC has not released any updates.

Traditional chart pivots: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

Traditional Fibonacci: Next segment of publishing from EPIC coming soon.

Trader notes on oil.

My plan trading oil is to take a long position in $UWTI in my small account if the support holds and there is corresponding price action / volume. I will sell in to strength and re-enter as needed and I will sell VERY FAST if support is breached. If oil gets proper lift (which I don’t expect until we get closer to the oil meetings – which by the way there is some news there) then I will consider entering in size long with my large swing account, HOWEVER, oil has not traded agressively for some time so this is not something I expect just yet.

Crude oil current trading range 42.85 – 45.78 (see chart).

Other Equities I like for Oil or Energy Trade: Tape / Chart – $ETE, $RIG. Shorts – $WLL, $RES, $JONE, $AREX, $REN, $CLR, $HP. Fundamentals: $EOG, Pipelines – $XLE: $HEP, $SXE, $KMI, $DPM, $TGS, $ENB, $EEP, $PTRC, $HGT

The patience trick / discipline with crude is don’t go long unless you see those big volume spikes and preferrably some follow through. When the bulls and machines are in crude buying the dips you’ll know – and then it’s like a bank teller machine over and over. But it does go in cycles.

Study:

Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open super-nova type plays (you need a good momentum scanner for the first 30 mins of trade)… but are very useful for intra day scalping (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).

http://finviz.com/

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/ec5bebb9-b7b2-4474-9e5c-3e258b61cbe6

http://www.highshortinterest.com/

http://www.3xetf.com/all/

GL!

Curtis

Topics: Stockmarket, Pre-Market, Trading Plan, Wall Street, Stocks, Day-trading, Watchlist, Chatroom

Read More