Compound Trading Premarket Trading Plan (Trade Alerts, Stock Market News & Chart Set-Ups) Monday December 17, 2018.
In this premarket trading edition: Time Cycles, NatGas, Oil, SPY, VIX, BTC, Gold, Silver, DXY and more.
Welcome to the morning Wall Street trading day session at Compound Trading Group.
Notes in red text in this report are more recently important.
Scheduled Events / Platform Development / Team Work in Progress:
- December Special 40% Discounts (limited promo discounts per):
Exclusive Member Christmas Discounts: Trade Alerts, Swing Reports, Algorithm Reporting, Trade Coaching, Live Trading.
- Lead Trader Premarket Note: This Friday is the time cycle peak in global markets. That makes this week and next the inflection. Member / client reporting over next two weeks will be intense. I will be in trading room most days over next 6 months. Public sharing of calls in this massive cycle next will be minimal. We’re locking down for the cycle. Explained on my Twitter account tonight. My goal is to back off front lines to back office when time cycle complete. Massive time cycle next and we intend to hit it. Hope y’all bank.
- Team Work in Progress:
- Rules based machine trading protocol for oil to be published soon.
- Machine trading signals to be fed in to main trading room (initially manually then auto when api integration complete).
- New pricing to be published representing next generation algorithm models (existing members no change).
- Next generation algorithm models roll out (machine trading Gen 1).
- Trading Profit and Loss to be Published for Q1, Q2, Q3 2018 (a report detailing trading / alert performance of our team).
- Previously recorded Trading Boot Camp Event videos to become available on Compound Trading website.
- Previously recorded Master Class Videos will become available for download on website.
- New Trading Boot Camp Events to be announced
- 1 day Bootcamps December 2019 for each of the seven trading models and swing / daytrading – 8 in total to be announced (online only).
- Sept 18 – Raw Trading Boot Camp Videos were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
- Sept 18 – Previously recorded Master Class Series were emailed to members (new members inquire for copy).
Premarket Report: Per lead trader availability basis only (the pre-market reports are not published every market day – they are a way for our team to communicate with our member clients and update market conditions when time allows).
Private Member Discord Server Chat Rooms: BE SURE to get in to each private Discord server specific to your specific subscription type (bundles) – many of the updates as we go forward will be posted in there and detailed trading plans for alerted trades are often discussed by our lead trader in the rooms. This includes the SWING TRADING platform also. IF YOU NEED A LINK / INVITE email us.
Real-time Trade Alerts:
Real-time Trade Alerts for Oil, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Bitcoin are available to subscribers by following specific alert Twitter feeds.
Blog / Video / Social Posts / Learn to Trade:
#BitcoinTrading 101: A Beginner’s Guide to Getting Started $BTCUSD $XBTUSD $BTC https://compoundtrading.com/bitcointrading-101-beginners-guide-getting-started-btcusd-xbtusd-btc/ …
How to Use EPIC Oil Algorithm: $USOIL, $WTI, $CL_F, $USO, $UCO, $SCO, $UWT, $DWT, #OIL, #OOTT: http://youtu.be/hawVV31G9bg?a via @YouTube
How to Use ROSIE Gold Algorithm: #GOLD, $GLD, $XAUUSD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $NUGT, $DUST, $JNUG, $JDST
Some Recent Chart / Trade Set-Up Reports:
See YouTube, member email direct reports and blog for other recent videos or blog posts. Listed from most recent. Much of the premium member reporting posted below is delayed and may or may not require password.
Dec 11 – Current Trades Reviewed: Oil, SPY, VIX, NatGas, Time Cycles, Gold, Silver, DXY… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mWMFTprLqQ
Recent Educational Articles / Videos:
I get a lot of Questions on How to Trade our Structured Chart Models, this video has 5 min starter explanation at 1:00 min-6:00 min. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrXbE7lojAg&t=3s … – Fibonacci Trend-lines, Trading structure/quads, Price targets, Main support resistance (buy sell triggers), Time cycles, Moving averages, Trading trims/adds.
Trading Plan / Watch Lists. Morning Momentum / Gaps / News / PR / IPO / SEC Filings / Earnings Stocks on Watch:
Monday Dec 17 –
Global markets are calmer. Out of the VIX short trade last week but still in the others.
Equities on watch listed below all remain on my list.
Dec 13 – Markets are mixed (not surprising considering time cycle completion on 20 th ish). Extreme caution between here and 20th ish.
Looking for a pull back on DGAZ to size next leg above starter.
Holding VIX starter short in TVIX – HIGH RISK TRADE, extreme caution. Likely reverse bias after Dec 20 ish.
Holding SPY long starter. Likely reverse to short after Dec 20 ish.
Holding DWT short starter (however, it looks like oil may take another leg down here, it will either hold here or down another floor). Will size in next leg after a pull back in oil.
Holding ARWR swing starter long (missed my next leg size).
Looking for a possible BTC long swing other side of Dec 20 ish.
Looking for a possible Silver and Gold long other side of Dec 20 ish.
Looking for a possible DXY short other side of Dec 20 ish.
Expect next 6 months to be trading career huge. Massive range. Equity swings will increase as we come out of this time cycle peak – it will be a stock pickers year in 2019 with technical analysis rooting the trade action. My goal is to retire off front lines in 6 months (still here, but off the front lines), to do that my personal trading and machine trading has to be massive to win side.
Dec 12 – Per trade status video emailed last night; trades in oil going well (personal and machine trading did well yesterday), we’re short starter TVIX (VIX ETN), short starter DWT (short Oil ETN), long DWT (short NatGas ETN), long SPY. Looking at other equity, currency, indices trades per the video posted Dec 11 to YouTube and emailed. Unclear on Gold, Silver and BTC however, we are bias to a bullish run after Dec 20 time cycle peaks. Yet to be seen. Slightly bearish in to new year DXY. But everything is on the table and the trend after Dec 20 time cycle in to new year trading is key for positioning – KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
the firsts are far from over . careful with bias
We’re watching for long SRRK, CMG, Yen, AES, KT, NEM, XLE, QQQ, DIA, IWM, IBB…
We’re watching for short XLK, WYNN, adding to DWT short, adding to long DGAZ (natgas short ETN)
Also on watch Gold, Silver, DXY, ARWR, …
Dec 10 – Good morning. Global markets continue under pressure. It is Monday, extreme caution at open. Let the trades come to you. W
I will be in trading room for open, mid day and at other times when we are trading.
Weekly guidance is pensive at this point, I am likely to let Monday open and will look toward the reporting. I am bias to oil turning up in to new year, VIX will be a considerable trading instrument for us also, Gold and Silver looking for advance bullish, US Dollar unsure, moderately bullish Yen, BTC should bottom near Dec 20, SPY and other indices I expect continued pressure. Moderately bearish NatGas.
Swing trade guidance in reporting due out this week. Also moderately bullish NEM at this point. Moderately bearish Tech and Bio in to new year. All tentative in to turn of Dec 20 time-cycle. More in reports.
Some guidance / confluence contradictory at this juncture, those are our views at this point in to Dec 20 time cycle completion, all yet to be seen and positions to be determined.
Looking for significant moves over next 6 months (post Dec 20 time cycle).
Markets as of 7:30 AM: US Dollar $DXY trading 97.09, Oil FX $USOIL ($WTI) trading 51.73, Gold $GLD trading 1239.83, Silver $SLV trading 14.61, $SPY 260.34 (premarket trade), Bitcoin $BTC.X $BTCUSD $XBTUSD 3361.00 and $VIX trading 22.6.
Momentum Stocks / Gaps to Watch:
Jack in the Box exploring potential sale of the company
Proteostasis’s stock jumps after license deal with Genentech
20 Stocks Moving In Monday’s Pre-Market Session https://benzinga.com/z/12858013 $EVFM $PTI $PER $AXON $FRSX $ERJ $BBY $ALQA $QFIN $BZH
Embraer: Deal With Boeing Expected To Be Concluded At End 2019 $BA
$INNT Plans to Commence the First Ever Phase 3 Registration Trial in Celiac Disease in 1H 2019 and Announce Top-line NASH Data with Drug Combinations by EASL 2019
EVIO Labs Receives Provisional License from Massachusetts Cannabis Control Commission
$RHHBY $PTCT $BIIB – EMA grants Prime status for Roche’s risdiplam for SMA
$TLC $ARGX $AXON – Jefferies sees three-bagger in Axovant Sciences in premarket analyst action
-Goldman 1MDB charges
-May to reject referendum calls
Top 5 Things to Know in The Market on Monday –
Top 5 Things to Know in The Market on Monday – https://t.co/5cU75qXf70
— Investing.com News (@newsinvesting) December 17, 2018
The Charts Bulls And Bears Are Obsessing Over For 2019
The Charts Bulls And Bears Are Obsessing Over For 2019 https://t.co/BXkjapHzkg
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 16, 2018
Recent SEC Filings / Insiders:
Recent IPO’s, Private Placements, Mergers:
$AME – AMETEK completes private placement offering
$CGIX terminates merger
#earnings for the week
$MU $FDX $NKE $BB $ORCL $RHT $GIS $DRI $RAD $PAYX $NCS $FDS $NAV $WOR $ACN $HEI $CSBR $WBA $KMX $SCS $LOVE $CAG $JBL $WGO $CCL $APOG $MLHR $NEOG $CTAS $PIR $SAFM $ABM $AIR $CAMP $ATU $REVG $SCHL $LAKE $TWST
#earnings for the week $MU $FDX $NKE $BB $ORCL $RHT $GIS $DRI $RAD $PAYX $NCS $FDS $NAV $WOR $ACN $HEI $CSBR $WBA $KMX $SCS $LOVE $CAG $JBL $WGO $CCL $APOG $MLHR $NEOG $CTAS $PIR $SAFM $ABM $AIR $CAMP $ATU $REVG $SCHL $LAKE $TWST https://t.co/r57QUKKDXL https://t.co/VUgTdva6Tj
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 17, 2018
Trade Set-ups, Alerts, Charts & Reports. Recent / Current Holds, Open and Closed Trades:
Refer to date at top left of each chart (charts can be carried forward for some time). Trade alerts and stock chart set-ups should be traded decision to decision process – when trade set-up fails cut position fast. Leg in to winners at key resistance and support (at retracement or breach) and exit losers fast based on technical support and resistance. Not all set-ups work, the purpose of technical analysis is to provide a framework to trade (chart structure enables a trader to set stops where a trade has failed or leg in to winners and trim winners). Purpose of trade alerts is to bring awareness of a trade set-up in play but you have to execute the trade based on your trading strategy (which should be harnessed in your rules based process).
The $DGAZ trade. Short Natural Gas. #natgas $UGAZ $UNG
Chewing around the edges of volatility $VIX $TVIX $UVXY Short #tradealerts #swingtrading
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 13, 2018
I love EPIC FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #alerts #algorithm #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 13, 2018
Machine trading crude oil with EPIC Oil Algorithm at premarket open. Tues 4:30 price target hit perfect also from weekend reporting #Oil #TradingAlerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO #OOTT
Machine trading day today FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #trading #premarket #OOTT
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 11, 2018
Our machine trading was making money today, but as a human trader that was no easy trading session in oil. Even the machine trading had some cuts (small) but won over no problem. #oil #machinetrading $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO
Our machine trading was making money today, but as a human trader that was no easy trading session in oil. Even the machine trading had some cuts (small) but won over no problem. #oil #machinetrading $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO pic.twitter.com/tE6JDg8hZS
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 4, 2018
Machine trading screen shots from oil alert feed tonight. FX USOIL WTI $CL_F $USO #Oil #Trading #Alerts #OOTT #machinetrading
We are short DWT (short oil ETN) from last week $USOIL $WTI $CL_F $USO $UWT #oil #trade #alerts
Volatility short TVIX trade went well. $VIX $TVIX Looking for a bounce in to Dec 5 #volatility #trading
To catch a knife 🙂 Daytrading crude oil #OOTT #oiltradealerts $CL_F FX USOIL WTI $USO
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) November 13, 2018
The crude oil trade on the 1 minute chart, continue to watch the support levels signaled earlier. #crude #oiltradealerts
Where can you find a trading setup that executes for a 150+ tick day trade in crude oil with back tested win side probability 90%. Test it and tell us we’re wrong. Member report below. $USOIL $WTI $CL_F #OIL #trading #OOTT
Market Outlook, Market News and Social Bits From Around the Internet:
The speculative COMEX #gold position flipped to a net-long for the first time in five months. This after funds cut longs by 8k lots and shorts by 20k lots. In the two weeks to December 11 funds bought 62k lots, mostly above $1230/oz. S/t challenged on a break below.
The speculative COMEX #gold position flipped to a net-long for the first time in five months. This after funds cut longs by 8k lots and shorts by 20k lots. In the two weeks to December 11 funds bought 62k lots, mostly above $1230/oz. S/t challenged on a break below. pic.twitter.com/M41pZFNBDO
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) December 16, 2018
The combined net-long (+256k lots) in Brent and WTI crude #oil is now more than 20% below the previous two lows in Aug-16 and June-17 from where it rallied strongly on both occasions. #OOTT
The combined net-long (+256k lots) in Brent and WTI crude #oil is now more than 20% below the previous two lows in Aug-16 and June-17 from where it rallied strongly on both occasions. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/N2QOoMIcdh
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) December 16, 2018
“Bearish bets against the S&P 500 are at their second-highest levels all year”
— Trevor Noren (@trevornoren) December 16, 2018
Low-Volatility Stocks Are Shining as Investors Search for More Certainty #swingtrading https://www.barrons.com/articles/low-volatility-stocks-shine-in-this-stock-market-51544702401 … via @BarronsOnline
— Curtis Melonopoly (@curtmelonopoly) December 17, 2018
JPM says that investors’ concerns about credit markets are justified. The net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio for the IG and HY universe has been rising steeply over past decade to levels that are much higher than those seen at the peaks of the previous two cycles.
JPM says that investors’ concerns about credit markets are justified. The net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio for the IG and HY universe has been rising steeply over past decade to levels that are much higher than those seen at the peaks of the previous two cycles. pic.twitter.com/xNuMlK6glK
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 16, 2018
If you are new to our trading service you should review recent blog posts, the Compound Trading YouTube Channel and at minimum our algorithm Twitter feeds because they do tell a story in terms of the market and how the inflections of the market determine our day to day trading. You will notice the algorithmic modelling has been undeniably accurate with many time-frames (intra-day, weeks and months out) so I myself have learned to respect the math (they have taken me from a 60% hit rate to 80%+ all publicly posted live trade alerts).
Momentum Stocks (Market Open and Intra-Day):
I do trade morning momo stocks, but I do avoid much of the day trading risk (preferring to daytrade only what is structurally set-up also on the swing trade side and to my advantage in the algorithmic model charting). I often avoid the first 30 minutes (gap and go) and trade momentum stocks or structured (per explanation in previous sentence) stocks later in day after a wash-out looking for a snap-back trade that can possibly also become a strong swing or longer term trade that I can leg in to. Just prior to open and shortly after open I post momentum stocks to the trade chat room (and Twitter and Stocktwits if I have time).
Some of my Favorite Intra-day Trading Set-Ups:
(1) Momentum Stock Wash-Outs for Snap Back, (2) Bad News Wash-outs on Stocks with High Institutional Ownership, (3) Getting on the Right Side of a Trend Change and scaling in my position and (4) Our Algorithm Charting Model Set-Ups.
The momentum stocks (from previous days and morning trade) I continue to watch through the day for indicators that allow a trade.
Morning Stock Watch-Lists for my Favorite Set-Ups:
(1) Pre-Market Gainers Watch-List:
(2) Pre-market Decliners Watch-List :
(3) Other Watch-List:
(4) Regular Algo Charting Watch-List: Gold $GC_F $GLD, Miners $GDX ($NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG), Silver $SLV $SI_F ($USLV, $DSLV), Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI ($UWT, $DWT, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT), Natural Gas $NG_F ($UGAZ, $DGAZ), S & P 500 $SPY $ES_F ($SPXL, $SPXS), US Dollar Index $DXY ($UUP), Volatility $VIX ($TVIX, $UVXY), $BTCUSD Bitcoin.
(5) Recent Upgrades: $LULU $AXON $MFA $CSL $SMG $TGI $LYB $ORTX $SHW $GIII $CLXT $CSL $BKS $G
Lululemon’s stock rallies after Stifel analyst says it’s time to buy
MCDONALD’S: JP MORGAN RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $182 FROM $180
STARBUCKS CORP: JP MORGAN RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $70 FROM $69
(6) Recent Downgrades: $SCG $THC $EMR $ITW $BBY $EMR $MSEX $CPK $THC $BXMT
BEST BUY CO INC: BOFA MERRILL CUTS TO UNDERPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL
Stay tuned in Stock Chat Room for more pre-market stocks on watch.
For new readers, a review of our unlocked posts on our blog would help you get in to the story we are following with the securities listed in this newsletter.
Free scanners to find momentum stocks that you can easily review charts of for indicators that bring probability of your trade being successful up considerably. These are not useful for first 30 minute market open gap and go type plays (you need a good momentum scanner, level 2, and best to have hot-keys for the first 30 mins of gap and go trading)… but are very useful for intra day scalping and swing trading (start with trending stocks and then look at indicators intra for simple set-ups – study scan study scan study scan).
Algorithm Twitter feeds can be found here: $BTC (@CryptotheAlgo) $WTI (@), $VIX (@), $SPY (@), $GLD (@), $SLV (@), $DXY (@DXYUSD_Index). Our Swing Trading Twitter feed is found here: https://twitter.com/swingtrading_ct. Our lead trader Twitter feed is here @curtmelonopoly
Article Topics: Premarket, Stocks, Trading Plan, Trade Alerts, Trading Room, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Time Cycles, NatGas, Oil, SPY, VIX, BTC, Gold, Silver, DXY