Volatility $VIX Trade Update Monday Jan 30, 2017 $TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV, $VXX Charting / Algorithm Observations
Good morning! My name is Vexatious $VIX the Algo. Welcome to my new $VIX algorithmic modeling charting trade report for Compound Trading.
Notices:
We have left information from the last few reports at the bottom of this report for reading / review ease for our new members over the last few days.
Current Trade in Volatility
At time of writing the $VIX is up 6.62% and is at 11.3 on the back of the Trump border issues.
Trade Quadrants
Provide our traders a basic view of where their trading sits in relation to algorithmic models we are aware of.
Short Swing Considered Above Bollinger Bands. Jan 30 630 AM $VIX $UVXY $TVIX $XIV $VXX
Fibonacci Levels Our Traders Will Be Using Today. Algorithmic modeling worksheet. Jan 30 637 AM $VIX $UVXY $TVIX $XIV $VXX
Other Fibonacci Levels Our Traders Will Watch (Prospective). Algorithmic modeling worksheet. Jan 30 642 AM $VIX $UVXY $TVIX $XIV $VXX
Per Previous;
$VIX Trading Observations:
The VIX has gotten crushed once again. We expected to be able to publish all levels for trading quadrants today (when we reported last week), however, with-out upward trade this is impossible. The manner in which VIX trades we require an upward trend to publish specific trading quadrants and targets specific to the move because each move comes with its own specific velocity. So that leaves us waiting for another upward trending trade move before we can update the trading targets. So for now the report below includes current charting and recent report excerpts (for the newest members to review).
$VIX Fibonacci levels our traders are watching intraday. Down -9.75% and at 11.5.
Important consideration should be given to below (even though powers that be have continued to crush the $VIX)
Also for consideration, $VIX futures net short positioning at all time highs.
Previous Report Excerpts:
$VIX FIbonacci levels our traders are watching intraday.
Live $VIX chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/XScHpt7y-VIX-Charting-in-Progress/
$VIX Awesome oscillator, True Strength Indicator, Stochastic RSI, 200 Day on 1 Hour
This is interesting. Above the 200 day and the Stoch RSI is turned down! If that Stoch RSI turns up wham!
$VIX overhead resistance at yellow line
Anyway, we’ll have much for you starting Monday now that the math is locked in.
Below are details from other recent $VIX posts for new members to review.
Excerpts from Jan 17, 2017 Report
$VIX Awesome oscillator, True Strength Indicator, Stochastic RSI
$VIX with Bollinger vs $SPX
Excerpts from Jan 10, 2017 $VIX Report:
So yesterday we did see some lift in the $VIX and then it came off some. We do expect a volatility increase as we near Jan 20. As it rises we will post levels for intraday trading our traders will be using. Other than that, there are no new indicators to report intraday.
Per yesterday;
Live Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/NagLpI9Y-Vexatious-VIX-Volatility-Algo-Algorithmic-Modeling-Jan-09-134-A/
First, it seems volatility (based on probability calculations) is due for an increase – see red line on chart below for the most probable scenario short term.
Until volatility starts to rise this is the best we can do – provide the most probable scenario.
However, as soon as it starts to rise we can then provide historical averages / probabilities and indicators to move with the price action and trade in and out of volatility price action.
If you are shorting volatility, the trend-line in yellow has proven to be effective of the last number of months, however, we would caution relying on it.
So the bottom line with the $VIX as it is intra-day – our traders are waiting for the indicators to turn positive at which time we will be issuing posts relating to intra-day trading ranges – until then we wait.
Other considerations:
Per previous;
Demark exhaustion
$VIX Tom Demark exhaustion is at its 13th most in last 10 years. Average upside return at these levels is 97% within average thirty-five days on last twelve occasions.
An Average Year for $SPX and $VIX
As of close Friday
$VIX 11.28 #Contango 13.62 %
$XIV gains 0.80% daily from contango
$VXX holds 35% VX1 and 65% VX2 futures
6 trading days to expiration
Volatility indexes finished the first week of the year mostly in the red $VIX $TYVIX pic.twitter.com/ZAEAs9v55X
— Cboe (@CBOE) January 7, 2017
New all-time record for $VIX
futures – avg. daily volume of 238,773 in 2016 (up 16%) https://t.co/9VBEbMGsDo volatility pic.twitter.com/vDfTYIyqrJ— Cboe (@CBOE) January 6, 2017
UVXY Reverse Split Ahead: How To Position When Volatility Spikes
Alpha Algo Trading Lines:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Alpha Algo Trading Targets:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Intra Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Time / Price Cycle Change Forecast:
Currently waiting to trend up to establish.
Conclusion:
Our indicators all point toward an increase in volatility very soon – days and weeks at most, at which time we will publish intra-day trading ranges for our members
Good luck with your trades and look forward to seeing you in the room!
Vexatious the $VIX Algo
Article Topics: Vexatious $VIX Algo, Volatility, Stocks, Wallstreet, Trading, Chatroom, Algorithms, $TVIX, $UVXY, $XIV, $VXX