EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart Report Friday May 19, 2017 (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC – $USO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $UCO $SCO $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algo and I am one of six Algorithmic Charting services in development at Compound Trading.
NOTICES:
This Report will include recent emails sent to members and recent reports because there are many new members and many won’t have had access to especially those emails for context. So it is a bulky report below.
OFFICIAL LAUNCH JULY 1: Limited beta subscriptions capped at fifty members. 24-Hr Oil Trading Room $USOIL $WTI #Oil (EPIC THE OIL ALGORITHM). Member beta discount until subscriptions sold out only. If room is ready prior to July 1 (and it likely will – it will open early). Unfortunately no holds – first come, first serve. To register click here: https://compoundtrading.com/product/fx-usoil-epic-oil-algorithm/
As a result of the new room opening soon, you can expect significant changes to my charting over the coming near weeks.
Also, we are currently testing charting security so if a chart does not come up for you please let us know.
Wednesday May 17, 2017 EPIC the Oil Algorithm Webinar is important for members to review.
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available.
PATENT PHASE: I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures in 2017 and will have 24 hr crude oil trade room.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed and this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am represented on and used on a traditional trading chart as one would normally use as a probability indicator. The goal is to provide our trader’s with an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. Questions to; [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.
Visit this link for more information about my oil algorithm development, this link explains how our algorithmic charting is done, this YouTube video explains in summary how my algorithm works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUNyxFoXJp8 this link for more information about our algorithmic stock charting models and what makes them different than most.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED (TRADING ROOM), ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND ABSOLUTE TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
Today is the last report for the week and it will be a quick chart update with the complete charting model updated this weekend in advance of Monday morning.
I have left the reports for this week and recent emails embedded below also for context.
There is a live chart link below and two static charts. The upper resistance is shown for this broad quadrant (grey line) and the upper resistance of the current trading channel is shown (orange dotted). Our traders will be shorting with caution at each and long at bottom of the channel.
Below is the link for the live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Friday May 19, 2017:
Click on share button at bottom right of chart near thumbs up button and then click on make it mine.
Upper resistance 50.98 (grey arrow and line) to 51.18 EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart May 19, 2017 501 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Upper channel resistance (orange dotted 50.06 intra) EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart May 19, 2017 504 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Caution Email Sent to Members Between Release of Thursday Report and Today’s Report
From:
<[email protected]> (Add as Preferred Sender)
Date: Thu, May 18, 2017 1:57 am
Caution as trade nears end of intra-time cycle (triangle) EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart May 18, 2017 456 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Static chart attached.
Charts included in caution email to members:
What occurred in trade within 30 minutes of the caution email sent to our traders:
Thursday midday chart review raw video footage explains what happened and various other details about current trade.
Recent Reports for Context
Below is the link for the live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Thursday May 18, 2017:
Click on share button at bottom right of chart near thumbs up button and then click on make it mine.
Alternate chart test link (all our charting is undergoing a security lock down over the next few weeks so this is a test link): In other words, the general public (non members) won’t be able to access any of the charting at all soon.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QTsHJiyV/
Current area of trade. EPIC the Oil Algorithm Chart May 18, 2017 422 AM FX $USOIL $WTI #OIL $USO $UWT $DWT $CL_F #OOTT #Algo
Trade notes for May 18, 2017
Above is the EPIC midday review on video. For today’s report please review. It explains current trade (in context with more detail below from recent posts and emails).
Below I have pasted some recent emails to members for context for new members.
Also below I have left recent posts in for context.
Bottom line is you have main support and resistance and thick horizontal grey lines – our traders primarily trade short and long off those.
On a tighter timeframe (in between grey lines) our traders use the channels as points to short and long – they are represent as orange dotted lines.
And on even tighter timeframes our traders use the horizontal fib lines etc on the charting as support and resistance.
The algo targets in red circles are simply an added signal. Remember FRIDAY TARGETS are not predictable relative to Tuesday and Wednesday’s.
The other signal that is important are the time price clusters that are significant, however, there is not one that is significant near current trade.
The levels are discussed in recent posts for support and resistance areas.
Below is the other recent data.
Tue, May 16, 2017 7:16 pm
Evening,
A quick intra report for crude trade.
Trade returned to the previous channel as we expected it would. There is now a choice for an upward trending channel and a downward trending channel. The two are marked with thick dotted orange lines. Be sure you understand the channels and if not ask. They are support and resistance.
Speaking of support, not far below is your most important support (the thick grey horizontal line) and the yellow line right under it (review last 3 or 4 posts if you do not know). That is your primary support and the channel walls (orange are secondary to that). Our traders will trade off both or either.
Wed morning 10:30 report will be key to whether oil trade holds the lower support (grey line) or does not. If it does not hold the grey line and yellow line our traders will be short. If it does our traders will be long with a short term bias toward down.
Also very important, Wednesday mid day chart review time in the trading room will be dedicated to EPIC the Oil algorithm and associated trade – it will be a detailed webinar. If you cannot be in the room the trading room is recorded daily and you can get the raw footage on the YouTube channel for the day and review.
Also, the lower target was hit dead center today.
Attached static chart.
Thank you.
Tue, May 16, 2017 2:17 am
Good morning
An intra week update and complete report this evening:
Attached are three static charts and below the updated live chart link:
The attached static charts show the new upward trading channel if trade stays in new range (and upward). Also shown is the previous upward trending channel if trade returns to that range. New targets are shown for the new upward trading channel if channel is confirmed. Upper resistance that our traders will short at is 50.98 the grey line. Intra day our traders will trade the channel trade is in.
Any questions, as usual let me know.
Tuesday 4:30 and Wednesday 10:30 will tell us everything we need to know going forward at least near term.
Thanks
Curtis
Crude is above light resistance but still below 200 MA and under significant resistance.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/E1C7G0wh-Crude-Oil-Test-under-200-MA-over-simple-light-TL-resistance/
Notes that Correspond With Static Charts Below
Trade now has the price above FX $USOIL $WTI the significant resistance (thick grey lines) in the 47.60 area previously reported.
At time of writing trade has also broke to the upside of the uptrending channel (uptrending channel is marked with orange arrows) and is testing a horizontal Fibonacci resistance at 48.86.
Saudi Arabia and Russia agree to oil output cuts until March 2018 in overnight news.
Saudi Arabia, Russia agree oil output cuts until March 2018
The next significant resistance (thick grey horizontal lines) above is in the area of 51.00 and the next broad quadrant below at 44.15. All values have a +- of about .25.
The orange dotted uptrending lines in the more uppper range are early prospective upward trending channel lines should trade continue upside of current channel. They can be considered extremely soft support and resistance in upward channel trade until confirmed.
The algo targets (if trade is to upside of existing channel) will have to be reset when trade is confirmed in new channel.
OPEC continues to release news so our traders will simply trade between support and resistance lines (horizontal) until a new channel is determined.
There is a conventional chart also lower below in report of crude oil testing 200 MA and up over simple trendline resistance.
The cluster of resistance that we previously reported on that sent oil tumbling from recent highs is also overhead should oil trade to the top of this current range at 51.00 (we are currently running the algorithm model on this cluster and it should be ready within a few hours – it in the range of 53.00 approximately. This cluster is the most significant cluster of resistance in recent time – going back at minimum ten years of trade.
Multi Week Trading Range for Swing Trading:
Note: Be careful with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right of the chart – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).
Trade the ranges noted above.
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
The diagonal trend-lines are marked on main chart above.
Conventional Charting Observations:
Crude oil testing 200 MA https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/GZZmnoe6-Crude-Oil-Test-200-MA-over-simple-TL-resistance-USOIL-WTI/
Per recent reports:
There are a cluster of resistance points in oil overhead and the charts below show this best:
Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 201 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/mOQxIWO7-USOIL-WTI-Simple-Lines-Expose-Areas-of-Resistance/
Notice how when the daily chart is opened, the simple lines extend to current day trade.
Daily chart view. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 213 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Daily chart view magnified. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 217 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Possible downtrending channel due to trendlines extending from previous time cycles. Crude algo intra work sheet 226 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
If this occurs, the white arrow shows top of downtrending channel forming and lower white arrow show possible support to channel (but not as strong as the others because it is from current time cycle unlike the others) and if price loses lower white arrow the channel downward could continue. Pink arrow shows the end of the pinch should price trade between the two white arrows to end of wedge.
Careful 50 MA pinch on 100 MA. SQZMOM up as is MACD but Stock RSI at top. Crude algo intra work sheet 233 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Careful with that 50 MA crosses the 100 MA – you want those opposite to be bullish. Careful price stays above them also. Price above 200 MA. Stoch RSI at top so it would make sense for it to come off soon.
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants (white dotted lines):
Intra-day trading quadrants are available on all time – cycles and all of them are not detailed on this charting. The charting above represents the 30 minute trading quadrants. If you require tighter time-frames please email us and we will update charting for the time cycle you are looking for.
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
PS If you are not yet reviewing the daily post market trading results blog posts, please do so, they are on the blog daily and often there is information that also may assist your trading. Trade room transcripts (for example) may review topics pertinent to your trading.
Article topics: EPIC, Oil, Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Fibonacci