Wednesday May 3, 2017 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC – $USO $CL_F $UWT $DWT $UCO $SCO $ERX $ERY $GUSH $DRIP
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report. My name is EPIC the Oil Algo and I am one of six Algorithmic Charting services in development at Compound Trading.
NOTICES:
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available.
PATENT PHASE: I am now in patent application phase. Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures in 2017 and will have 24 hr crude oil trade room.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed and this blog.
HOW MY ALGORITHM WORKS: I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit – all not shown on chart at any given time) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am represented on and used on a traditional trading chart as one would normally use as a probability indicator. The goal is to provide our trader’s with an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart (both intra-day and as a swing trader or investor). This work, and subsequent trading, should be considered one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on. Questions to; [email protected], message our lead trader on Twitter, or message a lead trader privately in the trade room.
Visit this link for more information about my oil algorithm development, this link explains how our algorithmic charting is done, this YouTube video explains in summary how my algorithm works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUNyxFoXJp8 this link for more information about our algorithmic stock charting models and what makes them different than most.
EVERY CALL WE MAKE, EVERY PUBLIC INTERACTION, REPRESENTATION OF TRADE (ON EVERY VENUE) IS VIDEO RECORDED (TRADING ROOM), ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR ON BLOG / WEBSITE TIME-STAMPED FOR PERMANENT RECORD AND ABSOLUTE TRANSPARENCY. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO OUR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE https://compoundtrading.com/disclosure-disclaimer/.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
For this report also we are going to leave the previous important information from more recent reports to put things in context and also for the benefit of newer users as we have a number of new members and context is important. We will clean it up on weekend.
Below is the link for the live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Wednesday May 3, 2017:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/7GOV5WAl/
When you open chart in to viewer, click on share button bottom right (by thumbs up) and then click on “make it mine” and then you can make changes etc as you see fit.
In the static charts below you will see the current range oil is trading in and the revised algo targets.
The most important part of the charts is the channel resistance (upper) noted with the white arrow and the algorithm trading range support (grey thick horizontal line) noted with a white arrow. Our traders will use those as intra day support and resistance levels.
You will note that in current trade when price hit the Fibonacci resistance area nearest the top of the channel resistance I had noted in my last report that price tanked. When the downdraft ensued price stopped in the range of the algorithm support which I also noted on the last report. Many of our traders reported excellent results trading this range.
If the upper channel resistance or the lower range support are breached then be sure you trade very cautious until we update the charting. If trade breaches the support (grey thick line) then obviously a new algorithmic model chart will be required.
PER PREVIOUS REPORTING:
Last week ALL TARGETS WERE HIT! Tues, Wed and Friday primary algo targets were hit (chart below).
Below are seven still snap shot charts that represent the charting link above.
The most important part of the charts is the downward trending channel oil is trading in. Our traders are shorting at top of the channel and long at bottom of the channel. With tight stops.
The second most important part of the charts is the most upper resistance (thick horizontal grey line) and most lower support area (thick horizontal grey line). Our traders are shorting at top and long at bottom. Remember this is an algorithmic range or area of support and resistance and not a hard perfect or exact number.
The third most important are of the charts are the intra-day Fibonacci areas of resistance and support for tighter trade. Horizontal green thick line and horizontal red moderately thick (shown below in one of the static charts). Intra day excellent trading area.
And then for consideration are the intra-day quadrant support and resistance lines that are diagonal white dotted lines (moderately important simply for reference intra day).
And finally the algo targets for this week on Tues Wed Fri – THESE ARE EXTREMELY TENTATIVE because we see a time price cycle POSSIBLY ENDING BEFORE WED of this week and if that confirms we will update you with new charting etc.
PER PREVIOUS REPORTING:
The first two charts below are new and the link to the chart is new. However, I have left charts and comments from previous posts because the signals remain the same.
New observations per the new charts below are;
- The downward trending bias our traders are using in trade previously described is in fact proving out.
- The downward trending channel I had predicted is proving out in trade.
- More specifically the bottom wall of the predicted channel has in fact manifested, tested and confirmed (orange circle).
- I have added a few possible algo targets for the Tues, Wed and Fri target times. The targets ARE SOFT TARGETS and NOT PREDICTABLE in this channel YET.
Please see previous report comments below for trading support and resistance considerations.
Below is the link for the live EPIC the Oil Algo Live Trading Chart for Tuesday April 25, 2017:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xNGqkAmC/
Current area of trade with lower channel wall and width and algo targets. Crude algo intra work sheet 415 AM Apr 25 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Downtrending chanel wall predicted proved out and held. Crude algo intra work sheet 406 AM Apr 25 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
BELOW – Upper and lower horizontal resistance and channel walls and comments PER PREVIOUS REPORT(S).
Upper Resistance 51.00. Crude algo intra work sheet 105 AM Apr 24 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Lower support 47.61. Crude algo intra work sheet 112 AM Apr 24 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 50.73 at 3:26 AM EST Apr 24, 2017. Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance the trading edge:
At time of post oil FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 49.84.
The upper range resistance and downdraft per my post warnings the last number of weeks has now played out.
Below are the new algorithmic chart modeling calculated trading range signals. Please keep in mind that the downdraft in oil trade was significant so the calculations are interim and intraday and are likely to be modified over the next few days. In other words, take trades one decision at a time.
First most important signal is that trade is now confirmed to be trading in a new lower broad quadrant. This quadrant contains a range of trade in FX $USOIL $WTI between 47.61 as support and 51.00 as resistance. As I have explained in previous reports, this broad range support and resistance areas are zone areas, in other words they are not hard targets – consider them soft (or areas of support and resistance). They are represented on the chart as thick grey lines (horizontal) marked with grey arrows and are in the charts below. You can be most confident trading short at resistance (once confirmed) and secondary moderately confident entering long at the support area. But remember, trade often over-shoots support and resistance for a brief time (this has been observed in my reporting and oil trade consistently).
The next most important area of support and resistance are the diagonal dotted grey lines. The thicker the line the more important it is. A new downtrend channel is being established and is represented by thicker dotted diagonal lines that are marked with grey arrows. The other diagonal dotted grey lines are important for intraday support and resistance also, but not so much. If trade breaches the downward channel outlined you can consider the channel broken and would be updated. There are two solid white diagonal line arrows that represent / show the width of the new channel (at this point).
You will of course find standard horizontal support and resistance represented as different colored lines (purple and yellow being conventional charting support and resistance) and the others representing Fibonacci levels.
The algo targets (red circles) are very preliminary in this new range and should not be traded against – only observed as reference.
Our traders will be trading the upper resistance areas short (at channel and at horizontal resistance grey thick line). They will also trade the support of the channel long very cautiously and the support of thick grey line at 47.61 with moderate caution because their bias is short. When the take a trade long or short off resistance or support they will use the Fib lines as intra-day test areas for resistance and support.
If you are a new member it is highly recommended that you spend some time reviewing the history of this work and how you can use it most to your advantage.
Multi Week Trading Range for Swing Trading:
Note: Be careful with the prices you see in the purple boxes on the right of the chart – they do not line up on chart for price action (they are for indicators).
Trade the ranges noted above.
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Remember you can come in to the chat room to message the trader and REMEMBER I have posted a live chart link earlier in this post so if you can’t see the lines well on this chart above you can go to the live chart link and watch for member live algo chart links through-out the day in your email inbox!
The diagonal trend-lines are marked on main chart above.
Conventional Charting Observations:
Oil got a bit of a bounce off its 200 MA – but you want to watch the supports at the two other white arrows – VERY IMPORTANT. Especially if they coincide with algorithmic model charting.
Simple lines. Channels. Support and resistance. 200 MA bounce. Crude algo intra work sheet 144 AM Apr 24 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/vwjo1iuM/
Per recent reports:
There are a cluster of resistance points in oil overhead and the charts below show this best:
Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 201 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/mOQxIWO7-USOIL-WTI-Simple-Lines-Expose-Areas-of-Resistance/
Notice how when the daily chart is opened, the simple lines extend to current day trade.
Daily chart view. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 213 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Daily chart view magnified. Simple lines show expose clusters of resistance. Crude algo intra work sheet 217 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Possible downtrending channel due to trendlines extending from previous time cycles. Crude algo intra work sheet 226 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
If this occurs, the white arrow shows top of downtrending channel forming and lower white arrow show possible support to channel (but not as strong as the others because it is from current time cycle unlike the others) and if price loses lower white arrow the channel downward could continue. Pink arrow shows the end of the pinch should price trade between the two white arrows to end of wedge.
Careful 50 MA pinch on 100 MA. SQZMOM up as is MACD but Stock RSI at top. Crude algo intra work sheet 233 AM Apr 10 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO $UWT $DWT #OOTT
Careful with that 50 MA crosses the 100 MA – you want those opposite to be bullish. Careful price stays above them also. Price above 200 MA. Stoch RSI at top so it would make sense for it to come off soon.
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the lines for support and resistance. Careful using them as traditional retracement levels with crude because the algo lines etc are more dominant / predictable. But the Fib lines are excellent indicators for intra-day trade support and resistance.
The Fibonacci lines are marked on main chart above.
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Horizontal trend-lines are marked on charts above.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
Watch your email and / or my Twitter feed for time price cycles they may start to terminate.
Time / price cycles are the single most important indicator and my record calling them is near 100% – since inception seven months ago. The reason they are so important is that a trader does not want to be holding a crude oil instrument at termination of a time cycle if not absolutely sure if price will go up or down. A trade may choose to enter a large position in advance of a time price cycle termination IF THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DIRECTION IN PRICE and if the market is trading at a really important pivot area. In other words, if the market is trading at the bottom of the upward trending channel at a support (yellow lines) and we knew there was a significant probability of a time cycle about to terminate a trader may enter with a long position. The price really spikes or drops significantly when these important time cycles terminate.
The problem with time / price cycle terminations is they change from minute to minute (depending on where price is on the chart) so you have to be in the trade room to get the alert. Our lead traders will do everything they can in future to send these on SMS but we have to be careful because it can be difficult with so much going on in the room. The reason they (time cycles) change is because they are actually represented by or are geometric shapes in the chart – I know it sounds odd but I have (as I mentioned) hit these calls just shy of 100%. The oil political people know the same algorithmic modeling principles and they ALWAYS TIME THEIR BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND THE TIME PRICE CYCLE TERMINATIONS.
So if you can picture a triangle on the chart – and price is trading in the triangle – and price is going to come to the edge of the triangle and there is a significant support or resistance or an algo line terminating there too or a target (those type of indications)… then we know there is a high probability of a time and price change. In other words, it is where there are clusters of algorithm points that cross and when price is going to cross over that cluster is where they are. And these are represented on all the different time frames – the larger the time frame – the larger the time price cycle termination – the larger the spike or downdraft. This is where we establish our intra-day quadrants from for sniping trades (which we will put in to the room soon because it looks like the geo political rhetoric is over for a while making them more predictable). Difficult to explain in short. So we will do our best to SMS alert these in future.
Also, the real large or important time / price cycle terminations we know far in advance and they can be put in these newsletters.
If you review my Epic the Oil Algo Twitter feed, my blog posts and my story on our website you will get a feel for how accurate these calls are.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Primary – Red dotted lines. Secondary – White dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range (yellow lines) as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
Your closest target that crude is trending toward is always the most probable. Crude is currently trending toward a target (red circles on chart) Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so and what your other indicators look like (such as the MA’s I explained above).
The other way to determine which targets are in play is actually quite simple, you will notice that crude trades between the channel lines up and down and up and down and there are various support and resistance along the way. If it hits a target at the top of the channel you can bet most times (unless the next day like today) that the next target hit will be at the bottom of the channel.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants (white dotted lines):
Intra-day trading quadrants are available on all time – cycles and all of them are not detailed on this charting. The charting above represents the 30 minute trading quadrants. If you require tighter time-frames please email us and we will update charting for the time cycle you are looking for.
Trading quadrants are simply support and resistance lines that can assist your intra-day trading – they are not alpha or primary support and resistance by any measure. Price action does however typically move more assertively when leaving a trading quadrant.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you understand the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
See you in the live trade room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended (if you have earnestly reviewed all of our documentation first) that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first.
You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my EPIC the Oil Algo Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
PS If you are not yet reviewing the daily post market trading results blog posts, please do so, they are on the blog daily and often there is information that also may assist your trading. Trade room transcripts (for example) may review topics pertinent to your trading.
Article topics: EPIC, Oil, Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Fibonacci