Friday Dec 9, 2016 EPIC the Oil Algo Oil Report (Member Edition). FX: $USOIL $WTIC ($USO, $UCO, $SCO, $CL_F, CL, $UWT, $DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP)
Welcome to my new FX: $USOIL $WTI oil trade report.
IMPORTANT NOTICES:
NEW ETNS: $UWTI and $DWTI have been resurected by CitiGroup! $UWT and $DWT http://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-investment-etn-idUKL1N1E31ZB
LOCKED POSTS: Starting mid December the Member Editions will become available (be unlocked to general public) within days of original publication. Portions that include algorithmic calls and charting that are still in play will not be published until they expire.
MULTI-USERS: Institutional / commercial platform now available for multi-users – pricing and product information will be posted to website soon.
LIVE CHARTS: Live charting for members of my algorithmic modelling is now available on Trading View. Links are now emailed to members regularly.
PATENT PHASE: As I mentioned in my last report this week is a big week for me – I am going to go to patent phase. I have six months of proven predictability of over 90%. My process is proprietary and qualifies for patent. The charting for members will become much more involved over the coming weeks (specific to proprietary details). Stay tuned for agreements concerning disclosure and use coming to members.
24 HOUR TRADE ROOM: My charting transitions from FX $USOIL $WTI to 24hr crude oil futures early 2017. My sub service w incl 24hr crude oil trade room.
PRICING: My proprietary services transitioned recently from free inaugural to subscriber only access. All rates for existing members for all service prices will be grandfathered in perpetuity (view website products page for conditions). Early 2017 when my 24 hour futures trading room opens along with 24 hour live charting I will have a rate increase but as with recent roll-over existing members wll be grandfathered at locked-in current rates.
SOFTWARE: My algorithmic charting is going to developer coding phase early 2017 for our trader’s dashboard program. Please review my algorithm development process and about my oil algorithm story on our website www.compoundtrading.com and my oil algo charting posts on my Twitter feed.
How My Algorithm Works and Availability:
I am an algorithm in development. My math is based on traditional indicators (up to fifty at any given time each weighted on win ratio merit) – such as simple math calculations relating to price and volume, Fibonacci, simple pivots, moving averages, Gann, Schiff and various other charting, geometric and mathematical factors. I do not yet have AI or Geo Political integration – only math as it relates to traditional indicators – weighted, with the primary goal being probabilities. I am not a high frequency or bot type algorithm – I am to be used (represented on a traditional trading chart) as a probability indicator to give our trader’s an edge when triggering entries and exits on trades with instruments that rely on the price of crude oil (specifically FX: $USOIL $WTI and transitioning to futures in the new year in our new 24 hour oil trading room).
Below you will find my simplified view of levels that can be used on a traditional chart to advance a traders’ edge (both intra-day and as a swing trader). This work, and your subsequent trading, should be considered only one decision at a time, “if this happens then this or this are my targets”… price – trigger – trade and so on.
FX: $USOIL $WTI Observations:
Link to the Trading View Live Charting (Member locked version):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/9jlw8DPK-USOIL-Member-Chart/
$USOIL Member Chart by curtmelonopoly on TradingView.com
Intra-day Crude Oil Trading Range: At time of writing FX $USOIL $WTI is trading at 51.31 (634 ET Dec 9, 2016). Some thoughts with respect to traditional charting that may help advance you trading edge (advance algorithmic modeling in member edition);
Crude Oil, Intraday, Chart
Trading intra-day 51.31. Crude algo intra work sheet 632 AM Dec 8 FX $USOIL $WTIC #OIL $CL_F CL $USO $UCO $SCO #OOTT #algo
Crude is trading above mid range in its upward channel – AS I HAVE BEEN REPORTING DAILY don’t listen to anyone that says this bearish – it is not – trade the margin widths of the channel if unsure. This report (exactly 24 hours after the one yesterday) and oil is up 1.00.
Multi Week Trading Range / Swings:
Please refer to yesterday’s report for specific trading range triggers. They are specific to the yellow lines on the chart above (for those that need to be adjusted intra day).
Diagonal Trend Lines:
Diagonal trend-lines (blue). Diagonal trend-lines are critical inflection points. Please review many of my recent posts so you can learn about how important these diagonal trend-lines are. If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line about 90% of the time. Also pay attention to how thick the lines are – the thicker the line the more important because they represent extensions from previous time / price cycles.
Price Action with 20, 50, 100, 200 MA
Crude is trading above the 200 MA on the 30 min… watch this close today and Monday.
Fibonacci Levels:
Watch the fib level overhead at 51.90 really close – it corresponds with heavy resistance (yellow line)
Horizontal Trend-Lines (purple):
Horizontal trend-lines are not as important as the other indicators reviewed above, however, they do serve as important resistance and support intra-day for tight trading and they are important if thick (in other words they come from previous time / price cycles). WE STARTED TO REPRESENT THE REALLY IMPORTANT LINES IN YELLOW FYI FOR EASE. Refer to chart for current applicable horizontal trend-lines.
Advanced Charting:
Respect support and resistance lines:
If you can be patient and take your long and short positions against these yellow lines for now that is your highest probability trading. With the recent geo political mess it makes the algo targets difficult because crude is not trading in its “natural” state that occurs when the geo political banter stops.
Crude oil is still bullish – don’t listen to the noise – this is a consolidation period in the upward trend in a channel against resistance. If this changes I will let you know. In the meantime trade the range or snipe knowing your lines and targets.
Oil Time / Price Cycles:
IF $USOIL IS TRADING ABOVE 51.38 THERE IS A REALLY IMPORTANT TIME / PRICE CYLE EXPIRING AT LATEST DEC 13 at 4:00 AM. AT LATEST. This means 98.5% of the time there will be a significant uptrend or downward trend establshed. WATCH VERY CLOSE. If you review my Twitter feed you will see that I AM ALWAYS RIGHT ABOUT THESE and the price normally drastically moves well before the termination of the time price cycle. IF PRICE IS TRADING UNDER 51.38 YOU CAN DISREGARD THIS NOTICE.
Alpha Algo Trading Trend-Lines (Red dotted lines):
To determine which algo line is most alpha (or probable) intra day, it is the nearest line to price action. This can also help you determine the trend of trade. If the algo line is trending up the price will follow it up until price is tested at an algorithm indicator (the main tests are diagonal trendlines, horizontal trendlines, time / price cycles etc – as I have shared with you). This is why it is important to watch all the lines because they are all support and resistance. To keep it simple trade the range as I’ve mentioned but keep an eye on these indicators.
The algo lines and targets have been adjusted since last report and there is a new line and targets on this chart!!!
I can report that the price action since Nov 30 break-out has been respecting the alpha algo trend-lines calculated and published over a week ago with precision.
Current Alpha Algo Targets (Red circles):
I can report that the alpha algo primary probability target prediction from last week for Wednesday December 7 at 10:30 as a direct hit for that time / price cycle. Very trade-able call – excellent.
So what is your most probable algo target for Friday at 1:00 PM EST? Your closest target is always the most probable. Then, your second most probable is the one that is up or down trend depending on whether general price is in an upward or downtrend for the most recent week or so. FRIDAY targets do not hit as often as TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TARGETS FYI.
Wait for the price to trend toward a target and take your position and watch as price gets closer and closer to the target. Remember, that the machines trade from decision to decision – or in other words from support to next resistance or resistance to next support or when the times come each week on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday they will trend toward the target that market price action determines they go to.
Our lead trader will explain more in the room and do not hesitate to ask our lead trader in the room by private message or on twitter to explain intra day decisions.
Also, please be sure to refer to the most recent post for your algo targets (there is an additional target as mentioned on the chart above now of course also).
Oil Intra-Day Algo Trading Quadrants:
Now that Wednesday target is complete and it hit we are calculating quadrants for intr day trading and will post as soon as done.
Indicator Methods:
As explained above, my algorithm is a consideration of up to fifty traditional indicators at any one time – each one given its own weight in accordance to its accuracy (win rate). This is how we establish the probability of specific targets hitting (we call them alpha algo targets).
Alpha Algo Targets, Algo Trend-lines, Algo Timing, Quadrants for Intra Snipes:
Algo targets are the red circles – they correspond with important times each week in oil reporting land. Tuesday 4:30 PM, Wednesday 10:30 AM and Friday at 1:00 PM. The red dotted diagonal lines are the algo trend-lines. And the vertical dotted (red or green) are marking the important times each week. You will find that the price of crude will hit one of the alpha algo targets about 90% of the time. In the absence of market direction the machines take price to the next algo line and/or target. Understanding how the price of crude reacts to the algos and how they move price from target to target is critical for intra-day and swing trading crude oil and associated instruments.
You will notice that price action of crude will use these algo trend-lines and act as support and resistance, and that price also often violently moves when an alpha algo line is breached either upward or downward.
We cover this in much more detail in the member updates, trading room. A review of my Twitter feed and previous blog posts will help you undersatnd the relation of these indicators. We will start posting video blogs (for my subscribers) on YouTube (in addition to my daily blog posts) for swing traders that work during regular trading hours.
Also… we will cover how to establish algo trend-lines and price targets future forward (as you have seen me do on my Twitter feed for some time now).
Conclusion:
That is a good place to leave it for now – we will review details of the above in the trading room and when time allows we will segment for our swing traders (and publish) videos of the work we do in the trading room.
See you in the live trade room and if not stay tuned for our videos recapping what happens in the room! And again, if you struggle to know how to use these indicators as a trader’s edge, it is recommended that you obtain private coaching prior to trading a real account with real money – we recommend you use a paper trading account at first. And finally, we will be publishing a “how to use guide” within a day or so, but it will be simply be a recap (consolidation) of instructions in this post, from my Twitter feed, and previously published information on our website. You can also send specific questions to our email inbox at [email protected] – if you do this be sure to ask a specific question so it can be answered specifically. When the 24 hour oil trading room opens you will have ample opportunity in that 24 hour room to ask questions also.
Watch my Twitter feed for intra day notices and your email in box for member only material intra day also.
EPIC the Oil Algo
https://twitter.com/EPICtheAlgo/status/798812739078475776
Article topics: EPIC the Oil Algo, Crude Oil FX: $USOIL $WTI, $UWTI, $DWTI, $USO, $UCO, $CL_F, $UWT, DWT, $ERX, $ERY, $GUSH, $DRIP, Chart, Algorithm, Indicators, Trading Room, Trading Edge, Fibonacci, Indicators, Algo, Targets